"O que passa-se?"

Normalmente aqui no blogue, chamo a atenção para a cegueira das empresas de consultoria grandes, parece que escondem dos seus clientes grandes o impacte de Mongo na sua actividade.

Julgo que é a primeira vez que encontro um texto de uma consultora grande sobre Mongo e as suas implicações na economia, nos ecossistemas e na dimensão das empresas.

"In the next manufacturing revolution, spurred on by technologies that reinvent the way a factory can create products, such as 3D printing and robotics, companies will also need to rethink what they make and where they make it. Products will come off the assembly line in small, highly customized batches, like a high-tech version of old-fashioned craftsmanship. [Moi ici: Digam lá se isto não é uma entrada à matador com Mongo em toda a linha!!! Desde os pequenos lotes até aos artesãos tecnológicos longe das máquinas-monumento tão queridas dos que pensam que o Normalistão do século XX automatizado será o paradigma produtivo do século XXI]
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The revolution is on its way, and within the next five to 10 years, manufacturers in all industries will find themselves in a race to efficiently produce products at the point of demand — that is, where their customers are — and to deliver these items when their customers want them, personalized to their customers’ individual tastes. They will have to make strategic choices to stay competitive, investing in technology that allows them to continually analyze data about their customers’ preferences and buying habits so they can adapt quickly to changes in market conditions. Factories will be smaller, [Moi ici: Imaginem os cromos da Junqueira ao ler estas blasfémias!] operating with minimal lead times and shorter value chains. Management will be decentralized, the supply chain will be simplified and shortened, and the distance separating the manufacturer from its customers will be sharply reduced.
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Although technology will enable this new manufacturing model, customers will compel its adoption. In emerging markets as well as developed regions, customers increasingly expect products that match local cultural preference rather than homogeneous global brands and business-to-business services. The auto industry pioneered this localized model as long ago as the 1980s, when Japanese automakers entered the U.S. market with cars tailored to American tastes. But only recently have other industries taken up this approach — with refrigerators, toothpaste, furniture, clothing, and software that are designed for each region. The popularity of e-commerce has changed the customer experience, giving people more information about products and competitors’ products, pricing, and, through peer reviews, quality. For the first time, customers can reasonably demand from mass producers products that look and feel like they were made next door.
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Nimble manufacturers will reap significant gains from the point-ofdemand model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as local customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of having to warehouse products in bulk will decline. The expense of supply chain management and production planning will drop as well. And companies able to produce personalized products that are best suited to customer needs when customers want them will enjoy higher sales margins. By contrast, as point-of-demand manufacturing takes hold, companies that operate global factory networks with large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find that their business models are outmoded."

Ao chegar aqui recordei, "Pedro Nuno Santos quer Estado como motor do desenvolvimento", porque estava a nascer em mim um outro pensamento, o oposto... o que esperar de um contrarian-militante! O que seria a orientação geral de um governo para facilitar a transição para este tipo de sociedade?

Empresas pequenas, DIY, empreendedorismo verdadeiro não treta para sacar Portugal 2020, fiscalidade normanda, legislação laboral, democratização da produção.

Esta transição vai acontecer, inevitavelmente, pedida, ordenada pelos clientes, pelas tribos de Mongo. E teremos governos cada vez mais incapazes de perceber o que se passa, questionando-se, "O que passa-se?", cada vez mais crentes nas virtudes do Normalistão, num mundo que se afasta cada vez mais desse paradigma.

Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order: The rise of the point-of-demand model"

Effectual Logic

Muitas vezes dou comigo a regressar a este postal de Outubro de 2015, "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário". Pensar estratégia para PME deve ser diferente de pensar estratégia para empresas grandes. As PME têm de partir do que têm e não se podem permitir entrar em ilusões de rico, ""analisamos os meios que temos e imaginamos futuros possíveis" (parte II)".

"Causation is when actions are made based on predetermined goals and focuses on the selection between available means to achieve those goals. It begins with the identification and exploitation of opportunity in the existing market, followed by a series of tasks that include extensive market study and detailed competitive analyses to develop a business plan. In order to implement the plan, resource acquisition and interaction with different stakeholders by developing partnerships takes place.
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In contrast, effectuation focuses on choosing between possible objectives that can be created with the set of available resources (who I am, what I know, whom I know). Who I am includes these characteristics; for example traits, preferences, skills, abilities, passions, assets; what I know consists of prior knowledge including; education, training and expertise, knowledge from life, and informal learning. Lastly, who I know includes the social and professional networks. [Moi ici: Tudo isto tem a ver com a importância da idiossincrasia] Those goals are constructed and evaluated within affordable losses rather than expected returns. Effectuators then seek to co-create those goals through negotiating with various stakeholders who are willing to make actual commitments. These commitments add new resources to the pool of means to achieve new goals (markets, products, and firms). Effectual logic is focused on co-creating the future by the use of intangible resources, utilising co-creation of value and relationships. Effectual and causal logics are different in terms of having two different processes at their foundations.
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when an individual uses causal logic they begin with a given goal, decision-making is based on expected returns, execute competitive advantage and conduct comprehensive market study, exploit pre-existing knowledge and try to predict the future. Whereas individuals uses effectual logic begin with a given set of means, decision making based on affordable loss, emphasize strategic alliances and exploit contingencies, and seek to control and embrace unpredictable future.
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“Bricolage” is “making do by applying combinations of resources at hand to new problems and opportunities”
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Effectuation is characterized by flexibility, experimentation and affordable loses. Those characteristics allow service innovation to take place. In causal approach, outsiders are perceived as competitors or threats, while in effectual approach, customers, suppliers, workers even competitors are perceived as potential partners who can help in crystalizing the service by adding new means or goals. [Moi ici: Os meus queridos ecossistemas] Bricoleurs involve customers, suppliers and other parties to solve a problem or launch/improve service innovation. Collaboration expands the pool of available resource and helps to broaden ones expertise."

Trechos retirados de "Causation and Effectuation in the context of Service Innovation in small, independent firms - Integration and management of resources and capabilities"

Outro factor

Outro factor a contribuir para compras de proximidade, mais encomendas, mas mais pequenas, aumento de reposições e, eventualmente, aumento do número de épocas por ano:

"Francia avanza hacia la economía circular. En el marco de su hoja de ruta para impulsar este sistema económico, el Gobierno del país ha presentado una serie de propuestas legislativas entre las que figura la prohibición de incinerar o destruir prendas que las marcas o las tiendas no venden y la obligatoriedad de donarlas a instituciones para el reciclado o a ONGs para su reúso."

Trecho retirado de "Francia da un paso al frente en economía circular y prohíbe destruir las prendas no vendidas"

Depois, a culpa é do digital

O relatório "Experience is everything: Here’s how to get it right" é muito interessante, mas tem um problema grave, na minha opinião, trata os "clientes" como miudagem, como um fantasma estatístico.

Por exemplo:

"Price and product quality are a given—79% of U.S. consumers say they might switch from one brand they like to another for a better price, 52% for product quality. Such drivers often dictate initial choices too—and in many instances, switching brands can be hard (consider what it takes to switch banks). For many it’s not worth the hassle for small improvements."

E se uma empresa tem como clientes aqueles que não valorizam acima de tudo o preço? Lembram-se dos anos de chumbo da troika? Pois, "A realidade é muito mais complexa".

"Q: Which of the following would stop you from doing business with a company?"

Ainda a suckiness e o caring

Ontem um empresário com quem trabalho e que faz o favor de seguir este blogue enviou-me um e-mail para mim e para o resto da equipa com esta imagem:

Ainda numa reunião recente tínhamos falado no "Too Big To Care".

Hoje de manhã li e registei:

"So why not rethink your strategy and embrace the idea of building a tiny company? You might want to consider it, especially since Rowe says 'tiny' doesn't refer to size--or profit potential. Instead, it's a mindset."

Ontem naquilo que formalmente é uma acção de formação para empresários, mas que tento que seja uma conversa orientada para a reflexão e partilha de experiências falou-se disto:

"Like a tiny house where there's limited space for 'stuff,' a tiny business requires that you examine, prioritize and work with what you value and eliminate what you don't,"

Como não voltar aos nabateus e a Taleb sobre os artesãos saberem trabalhar com limites:

"the artisan is someone like me: You cannot be a promiscuous entrepreneur if you're an artisan. And also, you know where to stop. The problem is Steve Jobs stopped at the product line. The typical artisan knows where to stop.
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Whereas if you hire someone [like] McKinsey, they'll end up making you keep going beyond and doing shit. They want you to expand until you end up in bankruptcy."

Trechos retirados de "Why More Businesses Should Embrace Being Small"

Acerca da suckiness, visitar isto e isto.

Isto é uma tragédia? Não!

Recordar o perfil de 2017. Depois, olhar para o perfil do 1º trimestre de 2018:

As coisas não estão a correr bem. Há definitivamente uma deterioração da situação.

Até a metalomecânica está a exportar menos do que no ano passado. A farmacêutica e a floricultura estão com quedas importantes. No primeiro trimestre de 2017 o crescimento farmacêutico andava nos 30% agora cai 35%. O calçado crescia 9% agora cai 5%.

Isto é uma tragédia?

Não, claro que não. Estou sempre a citar Nassim Taleb aos empresários:

"Economists fail to get w/ GDP growth that anything that grows without an "S" curve (slowing down phase) blows up."

Por isso, é que é importante a gente que espalha bosta, a gente com skin-in-the-game, a gente que não confia no alinhamento improvável de planetas e foge do fragilismo.

Este ano menos bom para alguns sectores, será um ligeiro incómodo para quem se prepara nos anos bons para o que pode acontecer de menos bom, porque sempre irá haver um ano, ou dois, ou três menos bom. E são esses anos menos bons que vão ajudar a limpar o sistema dos devaneios de alguns mais exuberantes e prevenir o colapso estrutural de um sector, ou de uma economia um pouco mais à frente, quando acabam os fundos para o governo de turno que estiver a torrar dinheiro para manter um status-quo.

Sou fanático por ecossistemas!!!

"In every ecosystem, there exists a key resource necessary for the ecosystem to create value and become viable. ... A keystone species is one that has a significant impact on its community or ecosystem and is “disproportionately large relative to its abundance” … key species perform roles not performed by other species or processes. … In a service ecosystem, where business value is created, the actor is seen as a foundation resource because he/she possesses agency and can act freely and purposefully by using operant resources to act on other resources. Actors are the foundation resource in service ecosystems because they perform roles not performed by other resources or processes. It is therefore necessary to understand this driving force—the actor—to gain a deeper understanding of service ecosystems.
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A service ecosystem provides the fundamental basis for actors’ resource integration and value co-creation efforts through mutual service provision. The concept of value co-creation implies that value is created through interactions with a set of resources guided by regulatory mechanisms embedded in a service ecosystem.
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To understand the actor as a foundation resource in the service ecosystem, it is necessary to zoom out from dyadic relations to get the system perspective. Systems are made up of several components, the linkages between these components, and an environment. General systems theory emphasizes an open, socially constructed, dynamic system that can be theoretically decomposed into: (1) the actors (social and economic market participants); (2) linkages and networks of actors (the social and collective relations); and (3) environment or context (boundaries, social, and market conditions through institutions and institutional arrangements).
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Actors co-create value based on their individual perceptions and links to other actors through their network as well as through the embedded service ecosystems. In this complex, multifaceted environment, actors operate continually at a crossroads of different societal and individual realms.
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At the center of every service ecosystem is an actor who operates on and integrates various available resources, guided by mechanisms of beliefs and norms, in order to co-create value. As part of this value co-creation effort, the actor faces various forces standing at the intersection or of this value co-creation effort, the actor faces various forces standing at the intersection or crossroads of influencing realms. We argue that this crossroads can be divided analytically into societal- and
and individual-focused realms
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Embedded in the four realms, individual action realizes institutional order through schemas and mental models, expressed by day-to-day actions. These schemas and day-to-day actions occur within service ecosystems that presume an underlying set of resources to facilitate the actor’s engagement in particular practices and to support his or her corresponding position in the system. This resource integration process forms and is formed by institutions and institutional arrangements in continuous  interactions. Actors’ schemas and mental models simultaneously influence their understanding of reality; their actions confirm or challenge institutional arrangements and the positions the actors possess in the service ecosystem."

Trechos retirados de "The Actor: The Key Determinator in Service Ecosystems" de Bård Tronvoll, publicado por Systems 2017, 5, 38

A suckiness dos gigantes nada pode contra isto

"Along with the ceaseless churn of collections — averaging at least four a year — designers leading major brands must invent It bags, launch mass-market fragrances and cosmetic lines, and produce ever more extravagant shows and events to feed social media. Despite this, what consumers long for are experiences, authenticity and community — concepts that, when touted for marketing purposes, quickly lose meaning.
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While running a small independent fashion label is more difficult in some ways than being part of a big conglomerate, it does allow the freedom to be true to one’s instincts and beliefs, which in turn leads to real brand community.
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who are transforming how business is done in their industry with practices that are ethical and equitable to their manufacturers, employees and the environment. They do this not because it is good business (it usually isn’t), but because it seems the obvious moral choice. And because they do this while creating fashion that articulates and, most importantly, anticipates what women want to express and how they want to feel, they have earned the devotion and loyalty of their customers, who tend to be talented, self-realized women: architects and actors, writers and gallery owners.
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Indeed, the quest to be true to one’s self is something all these designers share. Several years ago, Rachel Comey, 45, realized the usual fashion show setup — people crammed on hard benches to watch a few minutes of clothes on parade — didn’t do justice to the kinds of clothes she was making. Instead, Comey began hosting intimate dinner parties, where guests could converse while seeing pieces worn by models of various ages and races. Comey’s designs, which early on suited the creative Brooklyn woman who wanted to look equal parts sexy, comfortable and dorky, are sometimes deeply personal, riffing on her own girlhood memories." (1)

Um filme com um título que diz tudo "Hand-Crafted Is So In Right Now--And This Company Is Capitalizing On It"

Os gigantes vão ser úteis, como a Uber para limpar a legislação, para financiar o investimento em tecnologia que depois, com a sua democratização, poderão ser usados pelos independentes, "If the Shoe Fits: 3D Printing and the Future of Manufacturing Footwear", porque a suckiness vai dar cabo deles.




Trechos 1 retirados de "The Independent Women’s Designers Having a Big Moment"

A oportunidade chinesa (parte II)

Via @nticomuna cheguei a "Abyss & Habidecor exporta cada vez mais para a China":

"Dedicado à produção de têxteis para casa e decoração no segmento luxo, o grupo Abyss & Habidecor exporta cada vez mais para a China, destino onde as vendas têm crescido a um ritmo de 20% ao ano.
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“A China faz em grandes quantidades, não é concorrência nenhuma. Nós somos uma empresa artesanal e eles não têm capacidade para fazer o que nós fazemos e todos os anos a nossas vendas para a China têm aumentado”,
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Produzidos em máquinas manuais e com algodão egípcio Giza 70 – o que significa que foi plantado na década de 70 e tem, portanto, 40 anos – os artigos do grupo de Celso Lemos destinam-se exclusivamente ao segmento luxo."

Recordar "A oportunidade chinesa"

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX e parte X.

O amigo João PS no FB publicou este texto:

"Precisava de comprar 30 metros de cabo de som para substituir cabo velho que me faz estática numa aparelhagem. Só sexta-feira teria tempo para ir buscar. Comecei por pesquisar na net portuguesa. A minha velha loja de som, a Transsom, fechou, ou mudou de nome, não sei, já não a vejo há muito tempo. As duas hipóteses perto de casa eram a Worten e a FNAC. Na FNAC, uma dor, 10 minutos passados à procura no site e cabo de som a metro nem vê-lo. Na Worten ofereceram €9,99/10 metros (total €30) mas sem poder escolher a data de entrega. Perdi a paciência e fui à fiel companheira Amazon.it. Em 30 segundos e 3 cliques, 30 metros em bobina estavam encomendados com possibilidade de entrega em casa na sexta-feira. Preço total com entrega Expresso? €19,52. Ainda poupei 10 euros.
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Vem de a 3000 Km de distância, chega quando quero, e ainda é mais barato. A qualidade é sempre a esperada, e se um tipo tem qualquer dúvida sobre ela, a devolução é sempre possível sem chatices. [Moi ici: Este parágrafo do João é um desfilar do que Osterwalder coloca no lado do cliente no canvas da proposta de valor. O que gera ganho e o que reduz dor]
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Qual o segredo da Amazon? Penso que é por serem absolutamente racionais na gestão do negócio. Tudo é estudado, avaliado, medido, decidido e implementado com vista ao melhor interesse da empresa (através da satisfação do cliente).
- Notam a motivação da satisfação própria como melhor modo de obter a realização de satisfação dos outros? -
A Amazon é uma lição que deveríamos estudar nas Universidades de Gestão em vez de se encher os cérebros dos miúdos de calhamaços académicos de gurus."

A estratégia que a Amazon segue não é a única com viabilidade no mercado. A maior parte das empresas portuguesas não pode competir de igual para igual com a Amazon. Por isso, é preciso ter cuidado ao querer copiar a sua estratégia de eficiência.

No entanto, o João tem muita razão quando propõe que o estudo da Amazon seria muito mais útil que o debitar de vacuidades bem, ou mal, intencionadas de membros da tríade encalhados em fórmulas desenvolvidas para um outro tempo e mundo. Pessoalmente, usaria o exemplo da Amazon para exemplificar até à exaustão o conceito de empatia, o calçar os sapatos do cliente para facilitar-lhe a vida, coisa que o João não encontrou na FNAC e na Worten. Recordar a imagem de Alan Klement sobre o que ajuda ou dificulta a captar um novo cliente:

Aliviar a dor - está cá na data pedida

Benefícios - qualidade e poupança

Catalisadores - posso devolver na boa sem problemas

Minimizar o custo de mudar - em 30 segundos e 3 cliques

A imagem inicial retirei-a de uma apresentação no slideshare que infelizmente já não consigo encontrar para atribuir com toda a justiça ao autor.

Parece anedota

"Only one-quarter of the managers surveyed could list three of the company’s five strategic priorities. Even worse, one-third of the leaders charged with implementing the company’s strategy could not list even one.
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These results are typical not just in the technology industry, but across a range of companies we have studied. Most organizations fall far short when it comes to strategic alignment: Our analysis of 124 organizations revealed that only 28% of executives and middle managers responsible for executing strategy could list three of their company’s strategic priorities."

Trecho retirado de "No One Knows Your Strategy — Not Even Your Top Leaders"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X e parte XI.

Revolta contra a suckiness.

Em especial a parte X, acerca dos gigantes terem sido talhados para o Normalistão e falhem cada vez mais com o avanço de Mongo, eis o tema abordado por Seth Godin ontem em "Bigger to feel safer":

"Creative institutions get bigger so that they can avoid doing things that feel risky.
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They may rationalize this as leverage, as creating more impact. But it's a coin with two sides, and the other side is that they do proportionally more things that are reliable and fewer things that feel like they might fail.
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In other words, hiring more people makes their useful creative productivity go down.
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This is not the way it works in a factory. When Henry Ford hired more people for the assembly line, productivity went up. Things got more efficient. More lines, more plants, more hands led to more productivity. The natural scale of the enterprise was large indeed.
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But a creative studio, a marketing team, architects, strategists, programmers, writers, editors, city planners, teachers--the natural scale of the enterprise is smaller than you think. [Moi ici: O que dizemos acerca de Mongo? O triunfo da arte! Organizações que praticam a arte não podem ter sucesso com os pressupostos que resultavam no Normalistão]
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This is a new law of organizations, and it's not well understood."

A China a mudar

O original aqui, "China’s once-booming textile and clothing industry faces tough times", a tradução aqui, "China em apuros".

E o resultado na Europa,

Coisa de loucos (parte II)

Parte I.

Tanta iliteracia económica embebida neste título, "Custos laborais crescem pouco e impulsionam exportações".

Acreditam mesmo que as exportações portuguesas cresceram e crescerão por causa dos custos laborais baixos? Acaso os custos laborais portugueses podem competir com os custos laborais dos países do centro e leste da Europa?

Infelizmente, parte importante do crescimento das exportações nos próximos tempos vai ter um perfil diferente do verificado nos anos da troika, mais à custa de automóveis e outras commodities, e menos à custa de PME.

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte X)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII e parte IX.

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs nada mais nada menos do que aplicar uma regra fundamental do Design Thinking.

Começar pelo que o cliente, ou o consumidor, ou o prescritor (começar por um actor do ecossistema) precisa ou quer fazer. Quais as suas motivações, que problema é que está a tentar resolver.


A Empatia é a chave. Não é acerca da nossa empresa. Precisamos da capacidade de perceber e partilhar os sentimentos de outros. E recuo a Março de 2011 a: "Eles não. Eu, para chegar ao nós"

O papel das redes e as organizações de Mongo

Em Mongo, terra de tribos e de artesãos, as organizações vão ser diferentes das criadas para o Normalistão.

"network forms of organization - typified by reciprocal patterns of communication and exchange - represent a viable pattern of economic organization.
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Pre-existing networks of relationships enable small firms to gain an established foothold almost overnight. These networks serve as conduits to provide small firms with the capacity to meet resource and functional needs.
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I have a good deal of sympathy regarding the view the economic exchange is embedded in a particular social structural context. Yet it is also the case that certain forms of exchange are more social - this is, more dependent on relationships, mutual interest enter, and reputation - as well as less guided by a formal structure of authority. My aim is to identify a coherent set of factors the make it meaningful to talk about networks as a distinctive form of coordinating economic activity.
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When the items exchanged between buyers and sellers processed qualities that are not easily measured, and the relations are so long-term and recurrent that it is difficult to speak of the parties as separate entities, can we still regard is as a market exchange? When the entangling of obligation  and reputation reaches a point that he actions of the parties are interdependent, but there is no common ownership or legal framework, do we not need a new conceptual toolkit to describe and analyze this relationship?
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Network forms of exchange, however, entail indefinite, sequential transactions within the context of a general pattern of interaction. Sanctions are typically normative rather than legal.
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In networks, the preferred option is often one of creating indebtedness and reliance over the long haul. Each approach does devalues the other: prosperous market traders would be viewed as petty and untrustworthy shysters in networks, while successful participants in networks who carried those practices into competitive markets would be viewed as naïve and foolish. Within hierarchies, communication and exchange is shaped by concerns with career mobility - in this sense, exchange is bound up with considerations of personal advancement.
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Networks are “lighter on their feet” than hierarchies. In network modes of resource allocation, transactions occur neither through discrete exchanges nor by administrative fiat, but through networks of individuals engaged in reciprocal, preferential, mutually supportive actions. Networks can be complex: they involve neither the explicit criteria on the market, nor the familiar paternalism of the hierarchy, basic assumption of network relationships is that one party is dependent on the resources controlled by another, and that there are gains to be had by the pooling of resources. In essence, the parties to a network agreed to forego the right to pursue their own interests at the expense of others.
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In networks forms of resource allocation, individual units exist not by themselves, but in relation to other units. These relationships to establish and sustain, thus they constrain both parters ability to adapt to changing circumstances. As networks evolve, it becomes more economically sensible to exercise voice rather than exit. Benefits and burdens come to be shared. Expectations are not frozen, but change as circumstances dictate. A mutual orientation - knowledge which the parties assume each has about the other and upon which day draw in communication and problem solving - is established. In short, complementarity and accommodation are the cornerstones of successful production networks. … the “entangling strings” of reputation, friendship, interdependence, and altruism become integral parts of the relationship.
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Networks are particularly apt for circumstances in which there is a need for efficient, reliable information. The most useful information is rarely that which flows down the formal chain of command in an organization, or that which can be inferred from shifting price signals. Rather, it is that which is obtained from someone whom you have dealt with in the past found to be a reliable. You trust best information that comes from someone you know well. … information passed through networks is “thicker” [Moi ici: Como não associar este "thicker" ao densificar das relações em Normann] than information obtained in the market, and “freer” than communicated in a hierarchy. Networks, then, are especially useful for the exchange of commodities whose value is not easily measured. Such qualitative matters as know how, technological capability, a particular approach or style of production, a spirit of innovation or experimentation, or a philosophy of zero defects are very hard to place a price tag on. They are not easily traded in markets nor communicated through a corporate hierarchy. The open-ended, relational features of networks, with their relative absence of explicit quid pro quo behavior, greatly enhance the ability to transmit and learn new knowledge and skills."

"Neither Market Nor Hierarchy: Network Forms of Organization" de Walter Powell, publicado por Research in Organizational Behavior, Janeiro de 1990.

Para reflexão

Depois a culpa é do digital...

• Millennials. Portugueses são os que mais seguem lojas nas redes sociais
• Retalhistas divorciados dos consumidores
• The Future of Retail is the End of Wholesale
• Comunicação. O marketing tradicional “falhou completamente”
• Marcas cortam nos intermediários

A maré do século XXI

Há dias Steve Blank usava a história para fazer um paralelismo entre Elon Musk e o fundador da GM, "Why the Future of Tesla May Depend on Knowing What Happened to Billy Durant".

O artigo é muito interessante e deu para aprender factos importantes. No entanto, há uma ressalva que  quero fazer: atenção à grande corrente de fundo que estava em marcha na primeira metade do século XX.

A primeira metade do século XX foi a ascensão de Metrópolis, a ascensão de Magnitograd, a ascensão da produção em massa, a ascensão da padronização, o triunfo do Normalistão.

Agora, a embrenharmos-nos no século XXI, estamos perante uma outra corrente, uma corrente numa direcção oposta: a ascensão de um mundo económico a que metaforicamente chamo de Mongo; o Estranhistão, a ascensão da variedade, a ascensão da diversidade, a ascensão dos artesãos e das tribos.

Ontem descobri um artigo que ilustra bem esta corrente que nos está a levar a Mongo, "How to Start Designing Your Own Products in 4 Easy Steps":

"With print-on-demand, the sky's the limit with what you can create. And the best part is, for aspiring business owners, it's extremely easy to get started.
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Over the last two years, I've gone from zero to over 600 products that I sell online using print-on-demand technology. The technology has not only allowed me to create a passive income, but also explore my creative side. The best part -- there are literally hundreds of products that I can create so I can focus my time and creative efforts on coming up with incredible designs."

Aquilo a que se chama aqui de democratização da produção (desde 2012), o que vai derrotar os gigantes concentrados na massa, as cooperativas de artesãos. Recordar que na cidade americana de Baltimore, só nessa cidade, em 1920 existiam 19 marcas fabricantes de automóveis.

Contexto e valor (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Context at the micro or individual level frames exchange as it occurs among individual actors. The important process of exchange at this level is direct service-for-service exchange. That is, each actor draws on its resources and competences to directly serve another actor. The context of this service-for-service exchange is a dyad, which consists of two actors and the service-for-service exchange between them. More important, this is a reciprocal dyad because both actors serve each other, which is an important aspect of value co-creation because both actors are active participants in the exchange process.
...
Context at the meso level frames exchange as it occurs among dyads.
...
Context at the macro level frames exchange as it occurs among triads. The important process of exchange at this level is complex service, or the synergies of multiple simultaneous direct and indirect service-for-service exchanges that enable actors to serve in a particular context, ... Each triad draws on its resources and competences, and applies them for a beneficiary in a particular context. The context of service-for-service exchanges at the macro context is a complex network. More important, the notion of a complex network is a fundamental aspect of value co-creation because of how actors, dyads, and triads create synergy among multiple simultaneous direct and indirect service-for-service exchanges."

Os trechos que se seguem são muito bons:

"Layer of meta-context: Framing exchange among complex networks as service ecosystems
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Context at the meta-layer frames exchange as it occurs among complex networks. At the meta-level, the notions of time and replication are introduced. Specifically, practices, routines, activities, or processes may be replicated at any of the three levels of context. Based on this, the important process of exchange at this level is institutionalization, or the process by which various networks of actors become legitimized (or delegitimized) with respect to larger societal systems. Included within this notion is replication, especially of institutions, which paradoxically creates dynamically changing contexts at the same time that it also introduces stability to the system.
....

complex networks are sustained by the reciprocal service provision of multiple actors, dyads, triads, and complex networks that are accessing multiple resources. As shown in Figure 2, this is a complex multi-dimensional evolution that occurs simultaneously in three dimensions: across levels of context, over time, and through replication. When complex networks successfully institutionalize resources, they become joined together as a service ecosystem, or ‘a spontaneously sensing and responding spatial and temporal structure of largely loosely coupled value proposing social and economic actors’ interactions through institutions and technology, to (1) co-produce service offerings; (2) exchange service offerings; and (3) co-create value’. In other words, the meta layer covers all the levels of service-for-service exchanges such that they together constitute service ecosystems. The notion of a service ecosystem is a fundamental aspect of value co-creation because it acknowledges how large-scale social structures and institutions evolve relative to the individual service efforts of actors, dyads, triads, and complex networks."

Como não recuar no tempo e regressar a um projecto de 2004 e a um postal de 2007. Este blogue é fã dos ecossistemas há muito tempo.

Como se compete num mundo de Amazons e Zalandos et al? (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Ainda acerca do by-pass ao mundo das Amazons, Zalandos, Continentes, Pingo Doces, FNACs et al.

"many small retailers carry inventories that compensate with quirk or quality for what they lack in breadth. Magpie-like secondhand and vintage stores are especially popular. So are businesses that carry local specialty and handmade items. Longtime retailers reflect the specific--and sometimes peculiar--tastes of their communities..These companies excel in product selection.
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"We are proud of the weird," [Moi ici: Como isto está em sintonia com a mensagem deste blogue!!!]
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"His vision has always been to rescue records from people who did not want them and turn them over to people who did," Grauzer says.
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Weber's strategy was more passionate than practical. "He just kept buying records regardless of whether they sold or not," [Moi ici: Isto é um ponto importante, muito importante. Abaixo na tabela tem tudo a ver com o criar uma network]
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"I guess it doesn't sound like a great business model," says Grauzer. "But it has worked."
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Kneib will custom-make soap in any design from almost any natural ingredient. "They want something that smells like lime or ginger or they want a certain color because it's for a wedding," she says. "We produce what they want."
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Because customers find many products unfamiliar, Papa sends them home with samples before they buy."

Trechos retirados de "These Companies' Inventories Pick Up Where Amazon's Leaves Off"

Contexto e valor (parte II)

Parte I.

"Toward service in context...
Context also influences value co-creation through its influence on service.
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One of the seminal works that addresses resources and service together within a context is Theory of the Growth of the Firm, in which Penrose (1959) describes how resources yield services.
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To summarize, the Penrosian perspective articulates that successful firms are those that own and control the resources that yield more service outputs in the context and ‘grow’ to dominate the context. [Moi ici: Como não recordar outra vez Napoleão]
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Penrose did however advance the notion that resources are distinguishable from context because they are bundles of potential service.
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Rethinking context.
Given the discussion above, it is necessary to deepen our understanding of context. We begin by acknowledging the heterogeneous and distinctive nature of context, and define a particular context as a set of unique actors with unique reciprocal links among them. The ability to define context uniquely is important because context heterogeneity affects how resources can be drawn upon for service.
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Social network analysis, in particular, can assist in making salient the heterogeneous nature of context  when it is viewed as a set of unique actors and unique reciprocal links among them.
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Visualization is also a key aspect of social networks analysis because it enables researchers to ‘see’ context and the scaleable influence of context within market structures.
By defining context as a unique set of actors and the unique reciprocal links among them, it is possible to see how hundreds of actors and links may constitute one specific context, while two actors and links may constitute another context."

Continua.

Como se compete num mundo de Amazons e Zalandos et al? (parte II)

Parte I.

A parte I terminou desta forma:

"Como se compete num mundo de Amazons e Zalandos et al? Criando um mundo alternativo, apostando em Mongo. Em Mongo faz todo o sentido trabalhar um ecossistema, fazer um jogo de longa duração, envolver mais actores.
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O que é que o sector tem feito nos últimos anos? Promover a marca Portugal! Como é que isso pode ser usado?"

Entretanto encontrei um artigo muito, muito bom que ajuda a  começar a responder ao título pergunta do postal, "How Fashion Can Fight Amazon". O artigo é mesmo muito bom e merece uma leitura bem mastigada:

"Yet, despite all these recent achievements, innovations and accolades, there are some adjectives that I can’t ever recall hearing mentioned in the same sentence as Amazon. Conspicuous by their absence in most commentary on the internet giant are words like fun, beautiful and joyous. You’ll very rarely, if ever, hear Amazon described in these terms.
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And that’s no coincidence. Amazon isn’t a fun experience. Friends don’t meet for dinner and then go on an Amazon shopping spree. People don’t take selfies of themselves ordering things on Amazon.
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As for beauty, Amazon is about as aesthetically pleasing as a wood chipper. But, like a wood-chipper, Amazon is purpose-built, not for beauty but for efficiency, expediency and volume.
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And, regardless of its early success, I have yet to hear anyone recount stories about what a “joy” it is to shop using Echo. Nor can I recall anyone giddily running from one room to another pushing their Dash Buttons. The point of these technologies is not to elicit joy but rather to eliminate altogether any consciousness of shopping.
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Amazon is a passionless yet wickedly effective means of consuming. They’ve taken what used to be a sometimes painful, arduous multi-site online buying experience and literally brought it down to one-stop and zero clicks with Alexa. It is the all-you-can-eat buffet of consumerism. It’s the Wikipedia of shopping, which is to say that whatever you’re looking for is probably there but getting it is never what you’d call a memorable experience.
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And so, as "cheap" is to Louis Vuitton, Fendi and Rolex, fun is to Amazon — it’s simply not in the brand’s DNA. Nor was it ever intended to be. Jeff Bezos never set out to create a delightful shopping experience. Amazon is quite simply the shortest distance between wanting and getting."

Se segue este blogue com regularidade já sabe como eu penso: se a Amazon faz isto e é muito boa, fará algum sentido ir torrar dinheiro a competir no mesmo campeonato que ela? Como me posso diferenciar da Amazon? Por que tenho de entrar no negócio da venda, quando sou um produtor?
Voltaremos a isto numa outra parte.

"So, if truly great retail can be considered fine art (which I fully believe it should be) then Amazon is the paint-by-numbers equivalent. It’s fast, easy and simple but about as artistic as Dogs Playing Poker. In other words, Amazon has — to its credit — reduced shopping to a science, but in doing so has also sapped it of its aesthetic, social, kinetic and human joy.
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And it's this one tiny yet glaring chink in Amazon's seemingly impenetrable suit of armour that may just offer their competitors an opportunity to inflict a small wound, or at least save themselves from outright annihilation. Using art to counter Amazon’s science, retailers may just stand a chance of surviving, if not thriving in their shadow."

E aqui começa a minha incomodidade com a parte I. Num mundo de ecossistemas avança-se sozinho com um site, sem trabalhar a estória, sem criar carisma, sem fazer sonhar, sem desenhar e alimentar a experiência:

"Don’t build stores. Build stories..
Ultimately as humans we acquire products but we invest emotionally in stories. The world doesn’t need another concrete commercial real estate box with racks, registers and shelving, or another cold, catalogue-like website. It needs physical and online shopping places that celebrate unique brand stories. It needs enchanted spaces and installations that promote interactions with products. It needs powerful experiences that engage on every sensory level. Great retail must be nothing less than a form of performance art where the cost of admission is a purchase only-too-gladly made.[Moi ici: Por favor voltar a trás e reler com calma uma e outra vez este último sublinhado]
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Don’t conduct commerce. Create community.
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Building a tightly connected community of customers who are galvanised by a common passion, place, idea or interest is the surest way to cultivate a sense of community and an atmosphere of fun. Doing so raises your stores and websites beyond the level of commerce and into the realm of becoming powerful places for communal gathering.
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Don’t sell mass. Sell me.[Moi ici: Meu Deus!!! Como isto é acerca de Mongo, como isto é um problema para os gigantes atolados na sua suckiness e desejosos de nos verem como plancton]
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Mass is the realm of Amazon, which has little interest in personalising products. Personalisation costs time, money and effort — all of which dilute Amazon’s competitive advantages of selection, speed and affordability. So, find a means of personalising and customising products and solutions for your customers. This can be by leveraging clientele data, using technology to offer personalised solutions, or by offering bespoke and customised options, replete with concierge levels of service. Regardless of how you achieve it, it’s essential to leave every customer feeling that your store, your products and your staff were there especially for them.
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Don’t measure sales. Measure experiences."

Vêem algo disto na parte I? Eu vejo uma espécie de Lefties para vender os restos que não se conseguiram despachar.

Continua.

Pragmáticos que sofrem

Em linha com este postal de Abril de 2007, e relacionado com o tema do alinhamento do modelo do negócio porque não basta inovar, o texto de Geoffrey Moore, "Where are you in the Market Development Life Cycle?".

Geoffrey Moore associa a cada estado de desenvolvimento do mercado um determinado mindset do cliente-alvo:

"Each of the four stages in the life cycle is readily detected by a simple litmus-test question: What is the state of mind that is motivating your current cohort of prospects to become customers?
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Here are the mental states by market development stage:
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In the Early MarketThis is a market made up of technology enthusiasts and visionaries who are adopting ahead of their peers in order to get a competitive advantage or head off some problem looming on the horizon. Their state of mind can be summarized as We believe what you believe.
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Crossing the ChasmThe first customer cohorts that emerge on the Mainstream Market side of the chasm are adopting because they are saddled with a painful problem that they cannot solve with their current set of tools. We call these people pragmatists in pain. They do not believe what you believe. Instead their state of mind is We need what you have.
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No longer do you talk about the technology first. Now it is the customer problem that takes center stage, followed by a domain-specific solution that is communicated in their language, not yours.
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Working in niche markets with high-value use cases can be exceptionally rewarding as the return on investment for customers is so high they can afford to pay premium prices, and still rave about your products. Such niches, however, represent a small fraction of the total available market, where most prospects may well be looking for productivity improvements of the type you offer, but at a more competitive price.
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Inside the Tornado.
When not under duress, most pragmatist customers adopt when they see their peers adopting. They don’t want to go too early, but they also don’t want to get left behind. So, they are always checking in to see what others are doing. Their mental state is We want what they have.
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[Moi ici: Segue-se um conselho que é o meu, confesso que foi o que pensei acerca das minhas PME antes de o ler] For companies who are not the gorilla in the overall category, rather than just picking up whatever scraps are left to others, best strategy is usually to retrench in a niche market where you can be number one—effectively causing at least a small group of peers who will herd around your offerings. [Moi ici: Talvez algo de Hermann Simon e os seus campeões escondidos]
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On Main Street.
Conservative customers postpone adoption as long as they reasonably can, seeking to get the most out of their existing infrastructure while others assimilate the new stuff. Eventually when the new becomes the market standard, they have to capitulate. At that point their mindset is We need what they have.
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Note that these customers do not want your product. Instead they see themselves as buying under duress. You want to make this as painless as possible for them, with simple pricing, easy installation, and highly defaulted product options. They really don’t want to be bothered.
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At the end of the day, conservatives buy whatever the pragmatists bought, but typically at a lower price and with no bells and whistles. They are skeptical even then, but once they have chosen a vendor, they tend to be quite loyal, if for no other reason than to avoid having to go through another cycle of adoption."

Ser generalista como Bruce Jenner não é só para os processos internos que não funciona num mundo de especialistas, também a nível da relação com as partes interessadas.

Coisa de loucos

Uma pessoa apanha cada coisa "Banco Mundial propõe baixar salários mínimos para enfrentar robôs":

"Tendo em conta que substituir trabalhadores por máquinas reduz custos, um relatório do Banco Mundial vem agora sugerir que uma boa forma de combater o "avanço dos robôs" seria reduzir os salários mínimos e flexibilizar as leis laborais, facilitando os despedimentos.
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Uma das soluções para minimizar o impacto da automatização e uso de robôs no mercado laboral passa por limitar os aumentos, ou mesmo reduzir ou extinguir, os salários mínimos, defendem os autores.
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Os pressupostos para a existência de um salário mínimo – garantir um rendimento para um nível de vida com um mínimo de dignidade – podem ser assegurados através de mais apoios dos Estados aos mais carenciados, argumentam."

Quem lê este blogue sabe que não vejo com bons olhos a existência dos salários mínimos, mas dessa posição de princípio contra intromissão do estado e de terceiros na liberdade de negociação entre duas partes adultas, até ao significado desta mensagem do Banco Mundial vai uma grande diferença.

Mais uma prova de que Napoleão tinha toda a razão ao afirmar:

Gente que pensa que a automatização em Mongo é para produzir o mesmo que se produzia no Normalistão do século XX é gente muito básica:

Gente que precisa de ler Seth Godin para perceber que foi a industrialização que criou a massa que caracterizou o século XX, não foram os humanos que criaram o industrialismo:

Os humanos têm horror à uniformização e só a toleraram por causas dos preços.

Os humanos são e adoram ser diferentes:

Assim que a tecnologia libertou os humanos começou o bailado:

Cada vez temos mais variedade, mais tribos, mais diferenciação e isso dá cabo dos modelos de produção baseados no século XX.

Automatização à la século XX dá mau resultado:

A Toyota e a Mercedes já aprenderam que o futuro da indústria é ...

a arte e o regresso dos artesãos entrelaçados com a tecnologia: A ascensão do artesão e da arte na produção.

Esta gente do Banco Mundial padece da mesma doença dos de direita que acreditavam que o país só podia recuperar com o corte de salários via TSU, e dos de esquerda que acreditavam que o país só podia recuperar com o corte de salários politicamente correcto, a saída do euro, para regressar ao desvario da desvalorização cambial:

Presidente venezuelano decreta aumento do salário mínimo em 95% https://t.co/1X73c1Kxks Em https://t.co/MDmhqgtnSp pic.twitter.com/LOyWHxO0IB

— TSF Rádio (@TSFRadio) April 30, 2018

A indústria do futuro vai precisar de humanos mais do que nunca, não de braços como no século XX, mas de cérebros com paixão, "Why The Future Of Technology Is All Too Human":

"So the answer to our technological dilemma is, in fact, all too human.  While the past favored those who could retain and process information efficiently, the future belongs to those who can imagine a better world and work with others to make it happen."

Curiosidade do dia - definição e exemplo de bullshitter

Há pessoas que me tiram do sério, pessoas que deviam ter vergonha de saírem de debaixo das pedras onde estavam em retiro:

• João Cravinho diz que auto-estradas SCUT são lucrativas (Novembro de 2005)
• Cravinho diz que scut se pagam a si próprias (Novembro de 2005)
• João Cravinho defende que TGV Lisboa-Porto é prioritário (Abril 2018)

Mais vintage Taleb:

"There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, so long as you pay the price. A used-car salesman speaks well, they’re convincing, but ultimately, they are benefiting even if someone else is harmed by their advice. A bullshitter is not someone who’s wrong, it’s someone who’s insulated from their mistakes. There is less “skin in the game” today than there was fifty years ago, or even twenty years ago. More people determine the fates of others without having to pay the consequences. Skin in the game means you own your own risk. It means people who make decisions in any walk of life should never be insulated from the consequences of those decisions, period. If you’re a helicopter repairman, you should be a helicopter rider. If you decide to invade Iraq, the people who vote for it should have children in the military. And if you’re making economic decisions, you should bear the cost if you’re wrong.
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Ninety-eight percent of Americans—plumbers, dentists, bus drivers—have skin in the game. We have to worry about the 2 percent—the intellectuals and politicians making the big decisions who don’t have skin in the game and are messing the whole thing up for everybody else. Thirty years ago, the French National Assembly was composed of shop owners, farmers, doctors, veterinarians, and small-town lawyers—people involved in daily activities. Today, it’s entirely composed of professional politicians—people who are just divorced from real life. America is a little better, but we’re heading that way."

Contexto e valor (parte I)

Não percebo como é que "Contextualization and value-in-context: How context frames exchange" de Chandler e Vargo escapou ao meu radar.

Malta que acordou agora para uns itens a dar como respondidos com umas tretas, numa checklist de coisas a fazer por causa da ISO 9001:2015, sobre o contexto e as partes interessadas, pode mergulhar neste mundo de ecossistemas e propostas de valor:

"The purpose of the proposed framework is to extend this literature by making salient and explicit how context, markets, and value co-creation are theoretically related.
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We propose three levels of context – micro, meso, and macro – that coincide with fundamental processes of value co-creation.
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How actors draw upon one another as resources is critically dependent on the contexts in which they are embedded. For this reason, actors can be said to be partially defined by their contexts while’their contexts can be said to be partially defined by them (the actors). In other words, actors and’their contexts are mutually constitutive, or partially defined by one another. Each actor brings a unique quality to the context that affects other actors in the context, as well as the’context as a whole. Because each actor in the context is always integrating and exchanging resources with other actors and thereby serving other actors, there is continuous change in the context.
This continuous change highlights a market fluidity that has been understudied in the management and marketing literature. The dynamic and living fluidity of markets is framed, or formed, because of context. Contexts frame markets as interactions or exchanges that we can ‘‘see’’ and ‘‘understand’’. But essentially markets have no beginning or end; they are continuous. Contexts give markets form and function in time and space, whereas markets themselves transcend time and space because market exchanges simultaneously represent past and future service-for-service exchanges among different actors.
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This points to a fundamental need to differentiate among contexts. This is especially important because actors may be drawn upon as resources in particular contexts, but act as deterrents in other contexts. Simultaneously, a particular context may act as a resource for an individual actor but act as a deterrent for a different actor [Moi ici: Importante para perceber a relevância dos clientes-alvo, ou dos influenciadores, ou dos prescritores]. In this way, resources ‘become’ resources largely as a function of the contexts in which they are embedded; that is, the potential of resources to be drawn upon for service depends on the context in which they are embedded. And, as a result, resources can be more valuable in one context, but less valuable in other contexts. How context influences the value of a resource is one way through which contexts frame exchange and the co-creation of markets."

Continua.

Quando o Manel e a Maria começam a programar - indústria 4.0 a sério, não treta para captar fundos (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Esqueci-me de referir na parte II que o process.st permite fazer o ponto da situação de todas as encomendas:

E permite exportar toda a informação para uma folha de cálculo para tratamento.

Bom, voltemos à estória.

Na reunião seguinte, estava a montar o estaminé para apresentar as alterações quando sou informado de que tinham contado o ocorrido ao dono da empresa do software que usam e este tinha ficado de aparecer na nossa reunião. Julgo que terá ficado alarmado para aparecer numa reunião que começava às 8h15 da manhã. 

Lá apareceu, apresentei o template e exemplifiquei o preenchimento de uma checklist. 

Elogiou a checklist, disse uma grande verdade: "não faz muito sentido ter vários softwares a correr na mesma empresa". E começou a dizer que andava a desenvolver uma aplicação para Android.

Para mim foi penoso. Não tenho nada a ganhar com o uso do process.st, e sou o primeiro a defender usar uma aplicação ligada ao ERP, mas olhei-o olhos nos olhos várias vezes e senti alarme. A tal aplicação Android que está a desenvolver não a conseguiu apresentar, nem um pretotyping.

Quando estará pronta? 

Imaginem se um totó como eu consegue fazer isto, como será amanhã com a geração dos meus filhos que tratam o Linux por tu e até programam...

Por isso, achei mais do que uma coincidência chegar pela mesma altura a "The Future of Software Is No-Code":

"In a very real sense, no-code flips the traditional IT model. Rather than developers driving what an application should look like, line managers can become an active part of the process. Much of what they used to set up in Excel spreadsheets or checklists on clipboards they can now do in cloud-based mobile applications.
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"A big part of the benefit to no-code or low-code platforms is that they let you access elements of a development environment visually rather than actually writing the code yourself. That accelerates development and improves quality at the same time,"
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Today, computers are less "high tech" than they are basic business tools and the more power we can put in the hands of the people who use those tools every day, the better off we'll be. The future of technology is always more human."