"you have to get through the complexity to get to simplicity on the other side"

 "This is how naive I was in the beginning. I’d see a problem, you’d pick up the rope and say ‘hey I can solve this problem’. And little did I realize that there was just a big mountain of crap on the other side. The reality is that there’s a simplistic approach to how we think. Sometimes people just dive in and do the first thing off the top of their head. And what I’ve realized is you have to get through the complexity to get to simplicity on the other side. It’s one of the only quotes I’ve memorized and when I heard it, it really rocked me which is Oliver Wendell Holmes who is a Supreme Court justice from 1902 said “I wouldn’t give a fig for simplicity on this side of complexity, but I’d give my life for simplicity on the other side of complexity”."

Trecho precioso!

Pensei logo na quantidade de empresas que apresenta planos simples para atingir objectivos ambiciosos sem nunca passar pela fase da complexidade

 

Trecho retirado de "The 5 Skills Of An Innovator | Bob Moesta, The ReWired Group | BoS USA 2018" 

"creating the space in the brain"

 

"Through the years we’ve uncovered the six stages a buyer must walk through before making a purchase:

First Thought—creating the space in the brain

Passive Looking—learning

Active Looking—seeing the possibilities

Deciding—making the trade-offs and establishing value

Onboarding—the act of doing the JTBD, meeting expectations and delivering satisfaction and value

Ongoing Use—building the habit

...

When conducting interviews, we imagine the events in their life like huge dominoes falling. We need to understand the buyer at a very granular level. What happened that made them say, “Today’s the day I am going to…”? We need to understand causality. What are the events which pushed and pulled them to move forward or backward? It is an important concept. The customer has a certain set of systems for how they buy, and our process needs to feed their world to help them make progress. So when interviewing, we continue until we can imagine the dominoes in their life tipping over, moving them along the timeline.

...

Once you have the first thought, you’ve opened up the space in your mind for the information. Without this first thought there is no demand.

...

Four ways to create a first thought

• Ask a good question…and not give an answer
• Tell a story
• Give a new metric
• State the obvious"

Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.

An EMS as a portfolio of projects

 Because you make art you become an artist not the other way around.

While implementing an environmental management system (EMS) it is very easy for me to remember ISO 9000:2015 definition of management system and think about an EMS as a portfolio of projects aligned with the strategic orientation and with the purpose of improving the interaction of an organization with the environment.

So, instead of an EMS that also generates improvement projects you can have a set of improvement projects that constitute, that give body to an EMS. Let us see how:

You go into reality and you determine the environmental aspects and impacts (clause 6.1.2). 

You go into reality and you determine relevant interested parties and you determine their relevant needs and expectations (clause 4.2)

Based on the environmental aspects you determine the mandatory compliance obligations (clause 6.1.3).

Based on the relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties you determine the voluntary commitments that your organization will assume and treat as mandatory compliance obligations (clause 6.1.3).

Perform an evaluation of compliance (clause 9.1.2) to determine any situation of partial or total non-compliance.

Any situation of total or partial non-compliance, considering the environmental policy commitment to fulfill compliance obligations (clause 5.2 d)) can be part of an environmental objective (clause 6.2.1) to improve performance. Environmental objectives should be communicated (clause 7.4) and should be translated into an action plan (clause 6.2.2).

Some situations of total compliance, considering the environmental policy commitment to continual improvement (clause 5.2 e)) can be translated into an action plan (clause 6.1.4)

Each environmental action plan (clause 6.1.4 or clause 6.2.2):

• may need investments that must be approved and implemented
• may be victim of risks (clause 6.1.1) that may generate undesirable results or prevent the organization from meeting desired results. Emergency situations (clause 8.2) must be determined, prevented and a response tested and set in standby
• may give birth to new or improved practices (clause 8.1)
• may change people’s responsibilities and authorities (clause 5.3)
• may change the set of instructions and records needed (clause 7.5) and the competence requirements (clause 7.2) for those working in the environmental management system

Then, go again back to reality to check the effectiveness of all those actions: check the environmental performance.

• Monitor environmental performance (clause 9.1.1)
• Treat any non-conformity and evaluate the opportunity to develop a corrective action (clause 10.2)
• Evaluate performance at the management review (clause 9.3) and decide about continual improvement (clause 10.3).

So, just working with a set of projects allows an organization to work with almost all clauses of ISO 14001:2015:

• 4.1 - 4.2 - 4.3 - 4.4
• 5.1 - 5.2 - 5.3
• 6.1.1 - 6.1.2 - 6.1.3 - 6.1.4
• 6.2.1 - 6.2.2
• 7.1 - 7.2 - 7.3 - 7.4 - 7.5
• 8.1 - 8.2
• 9.1.1 - 9.1.2 - 9.2 - 9.3
• 10.1 - 10.2 - 10.3

Pena que não seja promovida por gente com skin-in-the-game!

Na semana passada ao passar na A1 a norte de Santarém tive ocasião de ver aquele triste espectáculo do olival superintensivo. Como não recordar "Azeite e Trás-Os-Montes".

Por isso, ao ler "Vimioso e Bragança querem valorizar oliveira Santulhana tradicionalmente desprezada" fiquei meio dividido: Agradado pela ideia e pelo que ela representa, mas preocupado por quem a promove.

"O Instituto Politécnico de Bragança (IPB) vai dedicar investigação a uma variedade de oliveira tradicionalmente desprezada, mas que se tem revelado pela qualidade dos azeites produzidos nos concelhos de Vimioso e Bragança.

Os dois municípios formalizaram esta sexta-feira uma parceria com a academia para fazer a caracterização e valorização da oliveira Santulhana, originária do concelho de Vimioso e praticamente circunscrita a este e ao município vizinho de Bragança.

...

É uma variedade que dá uns azeites particulares, que tradicionalmente não se consideravam azeites de muita qualidade, mas que o trabalho que temos vindo a fazer no politécnico em torno dos azeites da nossa região tem revelado que esta variedade tem um grande potencial de dar azeites de muita qualidade”, explicou.

...

Os azeites produzidos com esta variedade de azeitona “são muito frutados, com característicos aromáticas muito particulares e que os tornam particularmente apreciados, sobretudo nos nichos de elevada qualidade”, segundo disse."

Pena que não seja promovida por gente com skin-in-the-game! 

"Great sales begins with understanding the JTBD by your customer and the progress they are trying to make"

"Part of the “Five Whys” is to take a step back and not talk about what the customer wants from the solution perspective. For example, people might say I want the car door to be easy to open and close. Now, if you focus on the door, you have a limited set of solutions. As opposed to looking at it more broadly and thinking about making it easier to get in and out of the car generally. Now you are not just looking at the door but the placement of the seatbelt, etc., because you stop assuming you know the solution. It’s about seeing the bigger picture.
We use this methodology when interviewing our customers to get to the root of the problem they are trying to solve. Companies are selling drills instead of holes because they do not ask why enough times. They sit in boardrooms thinking of their product’s features and benefits and fail to see how it fits into their customer’s lives because they simply fail to ask why. You cannot design the way your customer makes progress; you need to understand their definition of progress and design your process around it. People don’t buy products; they hire them to make progress in their lives.
...
Let’s define JTBD. It starts when people are in a struggling circumstance, and they want to make progress.
...
building their solution starts with understanding their situation and why they are thinking about making progress in the first place, as well as what their vision of progress looks like.
...
Eliminating the struggle is not progress, them overcoming the struggle is progress. Both pieces are critical; the key to understanding causation is found in the circumstance and the outcome. Value is relative to your circumstance and determined by where you start compared to where you end. Circumstance is a big part of understanding causation. Their circumstance is a reference point for their progress, without understanding their starting place you cannot design their progress.
Great sales begins with understanding the JTBD by your customer and the progress they are trying to make: What is the situation they are in? What’s the outcome they seek? What are the tradeoffs they are willing to make? We do this by interviewing people who’ve purchased your product or services and understanding why. And why is relative to what’s going on in their life that caused them to say, “Today’s the day…” But it’s not an imagined customer or persona as we explained in chapter one, it’s real buyers. And the why you are looking for has nothing to do with your features and benefits. It’s about the customer and the progress they are trying to make in their life. To build a meaningful understanding of why people buy, we must create language, a story, and a model of their struggling moment."

Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.

"Demand-side selling starts with the struggling moment"

 

 "Buying is very different than selling. The best sales process mimics the progress that people are trying to make in their lives. Selling is clearly a supply-side perspective, while buying sits on the demand-side.

...

What’s so special about their approach? It’s a worldview of selling from the customer’s vantage point, which we call demand-side selling.

...

Because the supply-side is so worried about efficiency and effectiveness, it’s become all about building one model that works for many people. But one size does not fit all! Aiming for average hurts customer satisfaction, because when you strive for average you end up pleasing no one.

...

Supply-side: The focus is on the product or service and its features and benefits. How will I sell it? Who needs my product?

...

Demand-side: The focus is on understanding the buyer and the user. How do people buy and how do they make progress? What’s causing them to make a purchase? You design your go-to-market strategy around the buyer’s worldview, not the product. You are looking at the world through a real buyer’s eyes. It’s understanding value from the customer-side of the world, as opposed to the product-side of the world. Demand-side selling is understanding what progress people want to make, and what they are willing to pay to make that progress. Our product or services are merely part of their solution. You create pull for your product because you are focused on helping the customer. Demand-side selling starts with the struggling moment. It’s the theory that people buy when they have a struggling moment and think, “Maybe, I can do better.

...

Traditional economics thinks supply and demand are connected. But we would say that demand is independent of supply. Demand is about a fundamental struggle. Supply and demand are two completely different perspectives in sales.

...

The struggling moment is the seed for all new sales.

...

Companies get sucked into thinking about the features the customer wants, as opposed to the outcomes they’re seeking. It’s the basic premise of cause and effect. Understanding the context by which people value your product will make it easier for you to understand how to sell your product. Only your customer can determine your value!"

Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta. 

E a vida do cliente?

 "Every company believes it is customer-centric. However, most of them are product- and service-centric first, focusing on how to enhance their offerings (e.g., adding services to gas stations) rather than putting themselves in their customers’ shoes (and realizing that people want to avoid the gas station altogether).

...

Often customers have difficulty articulating the problem they are trying to solve. Therefore, it is critical to dig deeper to understand the root cause of customers’ challenges.

...

Understand customers’ problems

...

Identify pain points

...

Look beyond your product

...

Mapping customer journeys has become a norm in the industry. However, almost every company starts and ends its consideration of the journey with its product [Moi ici: Um excelente ponto!] — say a car or a mortgage. This can miss what’s driving customers in the first place, which can be highly useful in understanding consumer motivation and potential opportunities to add value."

A service-dominant logic usa esta figura:

É voltar a Richard Normann e a:

É tão fácil esquecer, ou ignorar a esfera da vida do cliente...

 

Trechos retirados de "Are You Really Innovating Around Your Customers’ Needs?"

"The struggling moment is the seed for all innovation!"

 "A sales funnel based on the probability someone will buy, without understanding what causes them to buy, made no sense to me. In my experience, customers bought on their terms. I didn’t convince them to do anything; they convinced themselves. It was their moment of struggle that became the seed that caused customers to switch to my product or service. We are all creatures of habit, and we will keep doing what we have been doing unless we have that struggling moment. So I flipped the lens, stopped trying to push my product, and started to understand what caused people to pull new things into their lives

...

There’s a different way to sell, and it starts with helping people make progress.

...

JTBD is the theory that people don’t buy products, they hire them to make progress in their life.

...

Great salespeople are real people: they ask questions, they listen, they learn, and they help you make progress in your life. Salespeople help customers solve problems and make progress in their life. Instead of pushing their product, they represent their product and how it fits into your life. Sales is about perspective—think concierge, mentor, or a coach, not an order taker. It’s about looking through your customer’s eyes, seeing what they see, hearing what they hear, and understanding what they mean. And there’s nothing icky about helping people. Period! The world could use a little more help.

...

The struggling moment is the seed for all innovation!

... 

great salespeople don’t sell; they help. They listen, understand what you want to achieve, and help you achieve it. A better title would be “concierge.

...

And you’ll learn it’s not about you, it’s about their progress. It will teach you to listen more intently, be more curious, and truly understand what your customers are saying."

Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta. 

Lucro vs treta

Esta semana mais uma vítima, não da COVID, mas de um modelo de negócio que na minha opinião (conservador financeiro nos negócios) nunca teria sucesso: "Undandy fica descalça. Uma das jovens promessas da indústria portuguesa de calçado entra em PER" (li algures que tem mais de 6 milhões de euros de dívida e que o principal credor é o Facebook).

Desde 2006 ou 2007 que escrevo por aqui: Profit is Sanity, Volume is Vanity

Neste postal de 2007 refiro a minha compra de “Manage for Profit, Not for Market Share: A Guide to Greater Profits in Highly Contested Markets” de Hermann Simon, Frank Bilstein e Frank Luby ... livros que nos marcam e nos moldam.

Entretanto, ontem à noite li, de Hermann Simon, "Le profit ne doit pas devenir un gros mot!". Malheureusement, ici au Portugal, cela s'est passé il y a longtemps.

Portugal é o país em que só se fala de distribuição, raramente se fala em criação de riqueza. Como não se cria riqueza suficiente distribui-se com base em endividamento que alguém terá de pagar, a bem ou a mal. E vai-se distribuindo cada vez menos por cada vez mais... E não estamos condenados... nunca esqueço esta descoberta do tempo do confinamento acerca da Toyota.

Hermann Simon receia que no seu próprio país a criação de riqueza se torne algo politicamente incorrecto. Assim, lançou recentemente um livro só em alemão sobre o tema.

"se déclarer pour la maximisation des profits constitue aujourd'hui une exhortation bien singulière sinon dangereuse à assumer publiquement pour un chef d'entreprise.

Le profit est pourtant la mesure la plus importante du succès d'une entreprise, a fortiori en situation de crise lorsqu'il est question de sa survie, comme aujourd'hui avec la pandémie de Covid-19.

Or, il tend à devenir un tabou du monde international des affaires, qui devient presque complexé de faire du profit.

...

Concéder à l'air du temps pourrait être dommageable, car maximiser le profit constitue la raison d'être économique de l'entreprise. Et contrairement à une idée reçue, il a une éthique. Nitin Nohria, doyen de la Harvard Business School, dit avec bon sens que « la première responsabilité éthique d'un chef d'entreprise est de faire des bénéfices ». Peter Drucker, le confirme : « Il n'y a pas d'opposition entre profit et responsabilité sociale. L'entreprise qui réalise un profit ne vole pas la société. »

Et il est funeste de tenter d'opposer les actionnaires aux parties prenantes comme on tente de le faire aujourd'hui. La maximisation du profit permet justement de créer un halo vertueux autour de l'entreprise, un « jeu à somme positive » car tout le monde gagne avec une entreprise profitable, qui investit, embauche… et alimente les caisses de l'Etat.

...

Ce rapide diagnostic doit achever de nous convaincre qu'il faut absolument réorienter les entreprises vers la recherche de profitabilité afin de maximiser notamment l'effet des politiques de relance en France et outre-Rhin. Seule la réhabilitation du profit y parviendra…"

Tamanho, produtividade e a receita irlandesa

• Tamanho e produtividade (Outubro de 2020) 
• Receita irlandesa (Setembro 2020)

Ontem ao final da tarde saí de Santarém, parei em Coimbra para visitar pessoas muito queridas e regressei a casa já depois das 20h30. Em vez de assistir ao relato do Sporting que já perdia por um a zero, liguei o ipad ao sistema audio do carro e ouvi em diferido o último Mel Talks, desta vez com Alexandre Relvas.

Gostei de ouvir muitas das coisas que Alexandre Relvas disse, não todas. No entanto, saltou-me a tampa quando Alexandre Relvas disse que os empresários portugueses tinham muito a aprender com os empresários irlandeses.

Não acredito! - Pensei. Ele pensa que o salto de produtividade e PIB irlandês foi feito à custa dos empresários irlandeses? Come on! Esta gente não analisa os números?

Enquanto conduzia debaixo de chuva pensava em como mostrar o quão longe da realidade está o pensamento de Alexandre Relvas. Onde posso ir buscar tais números?

Lembrei-me de Hausmann e do seu trabalho no MIT acerca dos product spaces. Já em casa, depois de comer algo fui ao site do MIT (agora está em Harvard) e analisei a evolução do perfil de exportações da Irlanda e de Portugal entre 1995 e 2018. Entretanto, já hoje de manhã durante a caminhada matinal recordei-me deste artigo "A Tale of Two Clusters: The Evolution of Ireland’s Economic Complexity since 1995". 

Reparem nesta comparação entre as empresas de capital estrangeiro e as empresas de capital irlandês a operar na Irlanda (número de trabalhadores, facturação e número de empresas por sector):

Alguns sublinhados:

"We observe a high level of specialisation in Ireland’s export structure, coupled with high income per capita as compared to the complexity level of its industrial activities (as captured by its Economic Complexity Index). We identify a dual structure within the economy, with domestic and foreign-owned exporters exhibiting distinct characteristics. In the latter case, we observe a recent consolidation and reduction in complexity level by the foreign-owned high tech pharmaceuticals and electronics sectors, with limited evidence of spill-overs leading to growth of domestic firms in these sectors. This contrasts with a dynamic and growing domestic food and agriculture sector, which is well positioned for continued expansion of Ireland’s indigenous activities into more complex goods.

...

Ireland’s domestic economy is driven mainly by services (constituting over 60% of GDP), with manufacturing a growing component of an overall declining industrial sector. Figure 1 shows that exports of goods and services are high (and growing) as compared to other countries with a similar GDP. Goods exports have traditionally been the dominant factor, but recently services exports – dominated by financial services and IT - have caught up with (and very recently overtaken) goods exports.

A key component of its growth and industrial strategy, Ireland is a major recipient of net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to other countries at a similar GDP per capita as seen in Figure 1 of the Supplementary Information (SI), driven by a competitive tax regime and a young, highly educated and skilled labour force.

Given that a cluster of industries, namely chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electronics are mainly foreign-owned, and hence are not fully integrated into Ireland’s capability base"

Tamanho e produtividade

A propósito deste artigo "Pequenas demais" de Nogueira Leite:

"Desde que me lembro que tenho assistido a um debate em Portugal sobre o aparente puzzle da baixa produtividade do trabalho face aos outros países europeus.

...

Porventura o factor mais negligenciado nestas explicações, pelo menos no debate público, é um dos que maior fatia da diferença consegue explicar. A escassa dimensão de muitas das empresas portuguesas. O tecido empresarial português tem uma concentração importante nas micro e nas pequenas empresas e é aí que o diferencial de produtividade para a média europeia é mais notório. As nossas microempresas têm uma produtividade que é de apenas 41% da média europeia (dados de 2018, Eurostat), enquanto nas pequenas o rácio sobe para 63%, sendo de 69% nas médias e 78% nas grandes, sendo que muitas destas últimas operam em ambiente concorrencial.

...

Não se propõe a criação de gigantes, mas apenas uma economia em que os mais pequenos cresçam e melhorem o seu contributo para o conjunto da economia."

Gerou-se esta troca de ideias no Twitter:

O meu último twitt gerou esta resposta:

Mais produtos e/ou mais clientes não têm de implicar um modelo de negócio diferente. Mas ainda que implicassem desde que as competências necessarias sejam as mesmas o ganho de escala é directo.

— Sergio Silvestre (@SergioSilvestre) October 1, 2020

Primeiro, acerca da minha metáfora do cão dos Baskerville e da minha receita para o diferencial de produtividade portuguesa escrevi no mês passado "A receita irlandesa".

Comecemos pela equação da produtividade:

Uma PME portuguesa no sector do mobiliário, do calçado, da metalomecânica, do têxtil tem três formas de aumentar a produtividade:

• aumentando o valor unitário dos bens ou serviços que produz; (com a chegada da China, Portugal tipicamente passou a produzir sapatos que se vendiam na loja a 300 euros em vez de 30 euros)
• aumentando a quantidade de saídas por unidade de tempo; (com a chegada da China, Portugal tipicamente encolheu o tamanho das fábricas e a produtividade em unidades).

Quando uma empresa aumenta de dimensão tem a possibilidade de produzir mais quantidade de saídas por unidade de tempo. Por exemplo, no calçado as empresas de Felgueiras tradicionalmente eram de maior dimensão que as de S. João da Madeira. O cliente-tipo das fábricas de S. João da Madeira era diferente do cliente-tipo das fábricas de Felgueiras.

Por isso, a produção de Felgueiras foi mais afectada pela chegada da China ao mercado. Porque o cliente que comprava nas fábricas de Felgueiras migrou para a China mais facilmente que o de S. João da Madeira. Como é que o calçado de Felgueiras deu a volta? Encolhendo a dimensão das empresas e subindo na escala de valor, aumentando o valor unitário dos bens ou serviços que produzia.

No mesmo sector de actividade tradicional em Portugal, quanto maior a dimensão da empresa menor o valor unitário do que se produz. Quem tem uma fábrica com 200 trabalhadores não pode, ou não deve, perseguir o mesmo tipo de clientes que uma fábrica de 60 trabalhadores. O cliente da fábrica de 60 trabalhadores coloca encomendas com uma dimensão que não é a adequada para a rentabilidade de uma fábrica de 200 trabalhadores. Seguir por essa via é cometer o mesmo erro da Gráfica Mirandela que comprou a maior rotativa do mundo para operar num mercado atomizado. Seguir por essa via é não ter em conta os trade-offs das vantagens competitivas e ficar atolado no meio-termo das bolas vermelhas.

As empresas com 60 trabalhadores operam num certo sector do mercado. As empresas com 200 trabalhadores têm de procurar séries mais longas, até porque o valor unitário do que produzem é mais baixo, e ao procurarem essas séries começam a ter de competir com empresas de outras áreas geográficas com custos muito mais baixos e aí ... 

Trabalho com empresas de calçado que tipicamente produzem 400 a 600 pares por dia. Já trabalhei com uma empresa que produzia 2000 pares por dia. Clientes diferentes. Tamanhos de encomenda diferentes. 

Lamento discordar do último twitt. À medida que as empresas aumentam de dimensão algures chegam a um ponto onde o modelo de negócio tem de evoluir. Encomendas com tamanhos diferentes, preços unitários mais baixos, clientes diferentes, montras diferentes. O cliente da fábrica de 60 trabalhadores é contactado numa feira. O cliente da fábrica de 2000 pares por dia visita a fábrica.

Esperar que o empresário-tipo da fábrica de 60 trabalhadores consiga dar o salto para gerir a fábrica de 200 trabalhadores é esperar que abrace sem dificuldade uma outra forma de planear, de gerir, de comprar e de vender. Isso não é fácil.

Depois de tudo o que escrevi vamos admitir que afinal os empresários-tipo da fábrica de 60 trabalhadores conseguem dar o salto para a fábrica de 200 e mais trabalhadores. Qual o ganho de produtividade necessário para ficarem ao nível médio europeu? Façam as contas, lembrem-se de Rosiello. Ganhar rentabilidade por redução de custos ou aumento de volume não se compara com o ganhar por aumento de preços.

É impossível ter produtividades europeias médias num sector tradicional? Não! Mas vejam qual a dimensão dessas empresas italianas. Ainda há alemães a fabricar sapatos na Alemanha, e não são poucos. Qual o preço médio dos pares de sapatos que fabricam? Qual a dimensão dessas empresas?

O futuro das empresas nos sectores tradicionais em Portugal é continuarem pequenas e até reduzirem de tamanho. Por essa via, as empresas terão futuro, muitas sobreviverão e outras prosperarão. 

Como subir a produtividade do país? Volto à receita irlandesa. Há que entrar em outrs sectores de actividade em que não temos nem know-how nem capital. Há que atrair investimento estrangeiro. Também não podemos cair na loucura de acreditar que os macacos sobem às árvores e começar a querer construir satélites, como nos anos de Cavaco. 

"The inner game"

"Every game is composed of two parts, an outer game and an inner game. The outer game is played against an external opponent to overcome external obstacles, and to reach an external goal. Mastering this game is the subject of many books offering instructions on how to swing a racket, club or bat, and how to position arms, legs or torso to achieve the best results. But for some reason most of us find these instructions easier to remember than to execute.
It is the thesis of this book that neither mastery nor satisfaction can be found in the playing of any game without giving some attention to the relatively neglected skills of the inner game. This is the game that takes place in the mind of the player, and it is played against such obstacles as lapses in concentration, nervousness, self-doubt and self-condemnation. In short, it is played to overcome all habits of mind which inhibit excellence in performance.
...
Victories in the inner game may provide no additions to the trophy case, but they bring valuable rewards which are more permanent and which can contribute significantly to one’s success, off the court as well as on."

Trechos retirados de  “The Inner Game of Tennis” de W. Timothy Gallwey.

Function, organizational knowledge and competence (part II)

Part I.

One part of the picture above is abstract and the other is very tangible.

Performance and context can act on both parts:

Context and performance is what is behind what I use to say:

"What is true today tomorrow is a lie and vice versa"

To be continued.

 

Por cá, iluminados

 Ontem de manhã, enquanto fazia a minha caminhada matinal por entre vinhas por vindimar e kiwis por apanhar em Lousada, fui encaminhado para esta página "Germany: Guidance on temporary VAT rate reduction, through December 2020".

O comentário que me invadiu foi logo este:

Uma das medidas na Alemanha para combater a crise: baixar o IVA
Malditos alemães. Porra! Por que teve de nos calhar o costa e o costa silva?

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 29, 2020

Entretanto, à hora do almoço viajei até Coimbra e aproveitei o sistema de audio do carro para ouvir uma série de artigos no Pocket. A certa altura ouvi "Experience strategy needs to be oblique" onde apanhei este trecho:

"Probably the most well known examples of applying direct approach are modernism in architecture and communism in governance. As a person growing up in communist Poland I still remember how regulation of pretty much anything: from work, to food, to travel, to education was a seriously bad idea for successful living."

No fim de semana passado tentei explicar à minha mãe que ninguém, nem os governos, nem os "sábios", nem os economistas, nem os engenheiros, sabem o que é que no futuro vai resultar. 

Por isso, em "Torrar dinheiro em hidrogénio e outras cenas não me assiste"(Julho último) escrevi:

"Acreditar em planos de iluminados, de esquerda ou de direita, seria um sacrilégio para um fanático como eu, segundo o ministro (por ter votado Iniciativa Liberal) por acreditar no "Deixem as empresas morrer". Então, o que fazer com o dinheiro da UE? Eu não decidiria o que é melhor ou pior, eu usaria o dinheiro para baixar impostos, para baixar as barreiras à entrada de quem se quer estabelecer em Portugal, seja nacional ou estrangeiro."

Até o Público vai dando um ar da sua graça, "O perigo de esperar que o Estado nos salve". 

Imaginem o impacte disto nas PMEs portuguesas na área da moda

 Imaginem o impacte disto nas PMEs portuguesas na área da moda:

"But what does hibernation mean for fashion on the shop floor? These will be items that never made it as far as stores in the first place, so you will probably not be able to tell whether something that you’re looking at in a shop in 2021 was originally intended to be sold in 2020. 

...

A possible negative impact of stock hibernation (aside from the costs associated with storing a large quantity of product) may be that jobs are lost throughout the manufacturing process as a result. From designers who are no longer needed to create a new spring 2021 collection, to factories which will no longer receive the orders, implications would arise from ‘skipping’ a season - problems which are simply a delayed result of the initial store closures."

Trechos retirados de "Retailers are 'hibernating' their unsold stock for next summer" 

Calçado e Inovação -KPIs no setor do calçado

"É costume dizer-se que o que não se pode medir não se pode gerir. Quando uma empresa começa a medir, descobre que pode medir muita coisa. E se medir muita coisa corre o risco de se perder no meio de tantos sinais, de tantas mensagens. É o que se chama ficar paralisado pela análise. Assim, há que escolher quais os indicadores, quais os sinais mais importantes para gerir uma empresa, executar a sua estratégia e avaliar os resultados. Ou seja, as empresas precisam de escolher um conjunto de indicadores-chave, um conjunto de indicadores fundamentais, aquilo que em inglês se chama de key permance indicators, KPIs, indicadores-chave de desempenho. 

.

O CTCP promoveu a criação deste guia do empresário, designado de: Calçado e Inovação -KPIs no setor do calçado,  que apresenta um conjunto de KPIs para medir a execução e a eficácia de uma estratégia baseada na inovação.

.

Começa por fazer um enquadramento do sector e evolução histórica e a inevitabilidade da inovação, apresenta alternativas de inovação, algumas sugestões  sobre o cliente do futuro e formas de medir a inovação."

Function, organizational knowledge and competence

Some time ago, when carrying out an audit, I again found a situation unfortunately too common.

After reading a training procedure, I asked for the annual training plan. I selected a training course and asked what were the competence gaps that the course aimed to fill.

Silence....

It seemed that I was speaking Chinese or Greek.

- Competence? We ask managers what training needs are and it is based on the responses that we prepare the training plan.

I tried to approach the situation in another way:

- Do you have a document describing the competence profile of a job?

- We have! - they answered

- Can I see it?

The document, however, only linked the names of people to a list of activities that they could perform more or less frequently.

- Have you any document that describes what a person has to master to perform a function autonomously?

- No!

- How do you show that a certain person is competent?

To be continued.

Struggles and progress

 "sales isn’t about selling what you want to sell, or even what you, as a salesperson, would want to buy. Selling isn’t about you. Great sales requires a complete devotion to being curious about other people. Their reasons, not your reasons. And it’s surely not about your commission, it’s about their progress.

...

Everyone’s struggling with something, and that’s where the opportunity lies to help people make progress. Sure, people have projects, and software can help people manage those projects, but people don’t have a “project management problem.” That’s too broad.

...

People struggle to know where a project stands. People struggle to maintain accountability across teams. People struggle to know who’s working on what, and when those things will be done. People struggle with presenting a professional appearance with clients. People struggle to keep everything organized in one place so people know where things are. People struggle to communicate clearly so they don’t have to repeat themselves. People struggle to cover their ass and document decisions, so they aren’t held liable if a client says something wasn’t delivered as promised. That’s the deep down stuff, the real struggles."

To say that our product is the best because technically it is the best in terms of specifications, is to forget that people like me drive a Fiat 500, not an Audi or a BMW, by conscious choice.

People don't buy products, they hire products to do a service for them. And that service may have nothing to do with the technical specifications.

Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta. 

"Do we feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?…”

 Ao ler isto: "Salário mínimo europeu vai criar concorrência mais justa na União Europeia", senti-me invadido por um sentimento de ironia

A frase foi proferida por Nicolas Schmit, o comissário europeu do Emprego. Um salário mínimo europeu aplicado em Portugal teria um impacte arrasador:

Mas adiante. O ponto que quero salientar aqui é este:

Este senhor está a fazer o mesmo papel que a CIP e outras organizações patronais fazem nas reuniões da concertação social. Pensam neles e como criar barreiras aos pequenos. Afinal, é a Primeira Lei Arroja da Concorrência: “A concorrência é boa e desejável em todos os sectores de actividade, excepto no nosso”.

Delírio

Em Agosto passado no JdN, no artigo "Postais de verão", encontrei um trecho revelador de que é preciso mais, muito mais reflexão sobre os caminhos para a reindustrizalização da Europa antes de se escrever:

"No imediato, por questões de vantagens competitivas, os salários relativamente mais baixos dos novos entrantes no mercado de trabalho podem favorecer a reindustrialização da Europa;"

Reindustrialização da Europa com base em salários baixos é delírio.
Os jovens europeus estão disponíveis para isso?
Os imigrantes africanos estão disponíveis para isso?

Depois no Jornal Económico, no artigo "Apostar na formação para se poder reindustrializar":

"“Se não competimos com baixo salário temos de competir com produtividade”, frisou João Duque ao JE, lembrando ainda que os portugueses são considerados “pouco produtivos”. [Moi ici: Pouco produtivos porque produzem artigos de baixo valor acrescentado]
O economista acredita que “os países do Leste da Europa que aderiram à União Europeia são os grandes concorrentes, os países que mais facilmente vão poder arrebatar os novos projetos de reindustrializaçao”, isto porque “têm uma tradição industrial, uma mão de obra que muitas vezes é mais barata que a nossa”. [Moi ici: Tudo coisas que têm impedido a Irlanda de liderar este campeonato] “Vamos ter dificuldade em entrar neste campeonato contra o centro da Europa”, referiu João Duque" 

E volta e meia aposta-se na caridadezinha:

"“Não podemos apostar numa reindustrialização se o sistema de ensino quer ao nível básico e secundário ou de ensino superior não estiver alinhado com as necessidades do mercado”, sublinhou ao Jornal Económico (JE) o presidente do Conselho Coordenador dos Institutos Superiores Politécnicos Pedro Dominguinhos""

Com o sistema político e económico que temos, quanto mais formação damos às pessoas mais as apoiamos a fazerem o melhor para a sua vida: emigrarem.

Abençoada pandemia

 “General Motors started Maven, a car-sharing service, in 2016 but had scaled back the effort significantly by the middle of 2019. It started Book by Cadillac—a car-swap subscription service where you could get a Cadillac for a fixed fee of $1,800 a month—but closed it soon after. Walmart bought Jet.com at $3.3 billion and then folded it into its e-commerce business after it got relatively little traction. It’s hard, if not impossible, for the big bus to become a bike or scooter. These companies have big investments in physical assets, such as stores and warehouses and facilities. They have long-standing, fixed relationships with suppliers, dealers, and business partners and are part of existing networks for infrastructure, “logistics, technology, and payment. They have relationships with governments or other public institutions that are difficult to change or break. They have brand equity decades in the making, reputations to protect, and expectations to be filled. And they have organizational structures that are very good at protecting, defending, and perpetuating themselves.”

Organizações que sobrevivem à custa de planos desenhados por amigos em lugares de influência e poder e pagos por dinheiro impostado a saxões contribuintes desgraçados. Organizações que no seu íntimo agradecem: abençoada pandemia!

Trechos retirados de “The Interaction Field” de Erich Joachimsthaler. 

"only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented"

 "“No company has ever failed from making a profit. Most companies are revenue driven, market share driven, sales driven and only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented.”

So if you want your company to not just survive the Coronavirus pandemic but thrive long into the future, you need to understand that pricing isn’t about the price per se, it’s about value.

More importantly, price is about the value your customers place on your product or service.

“Pricing is about value, or more precisely, the value perceived by the customers. If the customer perceives a high value, he or she is willing to pay a high price. If the perceived value is lower, you have to offer the product at a lower price.”"

Trecho retirado de "Why Pricing Is Not Primarily About Price with Hermann Simon" 

Guideline for the future

 Yesterday had an interesting phone conversation with a client about its quality policy. He sent me a first draft and I said I didn't like it. It was a text full of vague statements, applicable to any company in any sector of activity. So, I got back to the charge with my approach. A quality policy can be much more useful if it states:

• Who we are and what we do
• Who we work for
• What do we have to be really good at.

At one point I said to him:

Look at current customers, I know that organizations want to serve all types of customers, which is a mistake, but look and choose 3 or 4 who are the ones that represent the ideal customers, you may not send any customers away, but you want everyone to be like these 3 or 4.

Now tell me, why do these 3 or 4 customers work with you? What attracts them? What should your company bet on to make a difference with these customers?

It was then that the answer really surprised me ...

We are new in this area, we know that we are in an evolutionary path and now we really have no customer like these...

I soon jumped to seize the opportunity.

- So even more important is doing the exercise. Which 2 or 3 customers would you like to win over the next 3 to 4 years?

And my mind was full of metaphorical images developed in more than 30 years of work... like the children in the playground. I think that companies see their customers as children in a playground. They only see the collective and forget that at the end of the day each child goes home to be a singular person to its parents. 

The customer, even if it is a corporate, must be seen as a unique entity that we can, we should look into the eyes.

Another feeling before the end of the meeting was that my client found something that made sense, something to help, to guide his company in the journey to a desired future state.

Quando o mundo muda - o imperativo de fuçar

 Lembram-se de Abril passado "for at least the next couple months every organisation in the world is a startup"? Quando o mundo muda é perigoso manter o pensamento que gerou o sucesso no mundo anterior. Há anos que escrevi esta série "Parte VI – Zapatero e os outros".

"Firms that apply planning strategies (i.e., elements of causal behavioral logic) with a focus on accurate predictions and analysis of changing situations tend to outperform those that do not. With its emphasis on actions guided by predefined goals, causation helps firms to efficiently manage scarce resources that are of particular importance for firms operating in emerging market contexts.

...

Yet, in emerging markets during adverse economic conditions, which are, by nature, extremely turbulent and uncertain environments, formal planning activities fail to produce the desired results. The future stops being predictable enough for forward‐looking analyses, and the conventional strategic and marketing analytical tools fail to provide a robust basis for an effective decision‐making process. As such, in the crisis context, prior plans become largely obsolete and ineffective. Following them leads to SMEs' incapacity to adapt and be flexible in the fast‐changing environment; indeed, in extreme cases, the firms might be better off abandoning any pre‐planned actions altogether, as implementing them are unlikely to lead to an improvement of the situation. This negative effect of crisis on causation's effectiveness gets even more pronounced in the sample of firms that are particularly affected by a macro‐level crisis, which shrinks their resource base while also preventing acquiring the resources in the market. In other words, a severe level of crisis impact on a particular firm might deprive it of the resources needed to implement the pre‐planned activities, thus eliminating the possibility of a positive performance pay‐off from causation.

Moreover, the organizational crisis reduces the scope of possible actions that get into the plans because of the threat‐rigidity reaction. That is, the quality of the causation‐based planning is likely to suffer for the SMEs affected by a crisis in an emerging market. In particular, a crisis limits the decision‐makers' ability to conceive of actions that are different from traditional ones, constraining the scope of analyzed alternatives to only familiar solutions. Firms become strategically “rigid,” choosing to perpetuate established routines and leverage existing competencies, even though they are likely to turn obsolete, leading to the firm‐level crisis in the first place. Thus, in the contexts of major crises, planning‐based logic leads to rigidity that blinds the decision‐makers to emerging opportunities and unexpected courses of action; it inhibits the flexibility and adaptability that are of particular importance for SMEs while they help to eliminate their deficiencies in the midst of crisis.

...

The effectual behavioral logic, [Moi ici: Recordar "The effectual Logic" que traduzo na minha linguagem mais colorida como "fuçar" e na "A vantagem da ignorância" ] on the other hand, imposes losses on a firm in emerging market contexts under low crisis (when planning seems to be a preferable strategy), yet becomes a driver of performance in situations characterized by high levels of crisis. With respect to performance variability in an emerging market, effectuation acts as a “booster” in low‐crisis conditions yet stabilizes the performance in high‐crisis times."

Trechos retirados de "Navigating the emerging market context: Performance implications of effectuation and causation for small and medium enterprises during adverse economic conditions in Russia" 

 

A receita irlandesa

Ontem ao final do dia apanhei este tweet na minha timeline:

O que é a produtividade?

A produtividade é uma espécie de função, é uma espécie de alavanca que transforma entradas em saídas:

Por entradas entenda-se recursos, entenda-se investimento, entenda-se custo.

Por saídas entenda-se produtos/serviços, retorno financeiro, valor monetário, ganho.

Outra maneira de olhar para a coisa é:

Como se pode aumentar a produtividade?

1. aumentando a quantidade de unidades de saída por unidade de entrada - aumentando a eficiência
2. aumentando o valor unitário de cada saída - produzindo saídas diferentes

A opção 1 é praticamente a única que as empresas conhecem. O problema da opção 1 é que tem um poder de alavancagem muito baixo, como aprendemos com Marn e Rosiello. Dizer, como no tweet acima, que as empresas têm de se organizar para aumentarem a produtividade significa confiar na opção 1. 

Quem só conhece a opção 1 e compara a produtividade entre Portugal e países como a Irlanda ou a Holanda não percebe como é que eles trabaalhando menos horas conseguem ser mais produtivos. O erro é não perceber que eles não produzem  o mesmo que nós. Esse é o ponto da opção 2. 

Em vez de correr numa corrida de ratos para conseguir mais 0,1 unidade de saída por unidade de tempo, a opção 2 passa por um outro tipo de corrida, desenvolver artigos com cada vez mais valor unitário associado. 

É facil? Não! É impossível? Quase! Porquê? Porque para dar o grande salto que precisamos, a nível de país, temos de dar grandes saltos a nível de saídas. (Portugal produz em média 23 €/h enquanto que a Irlanda produz mais de 83€/h) E aí o problema é o dos macacos não voarem!

Como se dá o salto? Volto à minha tese, aplicar a receita irlandesa.

Não adianta chamar brutos aos patrões portugueses, esses dão o seu melhor. Quem achar que sabe fazer melhor que avance e lhes coma o negócio. Aqui o tema é como o cão dos Baskerville, não é quem está, é quem não está que é relevante. Acham que a produtividade irlandesa foi obtida à custa de patrões irlandeses e marcas irlandesas?

Para uma empresa em particular, a sua opção deve ser baseada sobretudo na opção 2 à sua maneira, ao seu ritmo. Uma empresa em particular não tem de pensar na produtividade do país, tem de pensar na sua própria produtividade.

A defesa da suckiness

 Acompanhei com um sorriso irónico  a leitura deste artigo "Why the American Consumer Has Fewer Choices—Maybe for Good":

"Some IGA Inc. grocery stores now offer only four choices of toilet paper. A few months ago, before the coronavirus pandemic, IGA’s 1,100 U.S. stores typically carried about 40 varieties. Harley-Davidson Inc. has cut some models from its motorcycle lineup. Outback Steakhouse has stripped roughly 40% of its menu, is studying whether customers care, and may drop some items for good even after the pandemic.

Consumer-oriented companies spent the past decades trying to please just about everyone. The pandemic made that impossible, and now some no longer plan to try. Sellers of potato chips, cars, meals and more have been narrowing offerings since the coronavirus snarled supply chains and coaxed consumers back to familiar brands.

Some executives said they plan to stick with fewer choices when the pandemic fades, saying it forced them to reconsider whether American consumers need such vast choices that sometimes overburden factories and stores.

...

Executives at Kraft Heinz Co., Coca-Cola Co., Hershey Co. and other food giants have said they are trimming less-efficient and less-profitable products, while shelving some in development. [Moi ici: Eheheheh Kraft Heinz... a lutar contra Mongo, a defender a suckiness]

...

Steven Williams, CEO of PepsiCo Inc.’s North America foods business, said the company stopped producing a fifth of its products during the Covid-19 crisis, including lightly salted Lay’s potato chips. He said he and his colleagues spoke with grocery executives as the pandemic deepened, determining that PepsiCo should focus on its fastestselling products.

PepsiCo is starting to bring some items back, but Mr. Williams said he expects its Frito-Lay snacks business to emerge from the pandemic with 3% to 5% fewer products. The company is taking the opportunity to discontinue some items that have few fans or are complicated to produce, he said, making its factories and distribution network more efficient."

Bom para startups surgirem e fornecerem a variedade para as tribos cada vez mais exigentes. 

 

Para reflexão

 "Given how much our culture depends on finding out what’s new, it’s surprising that few have figured out how to be smart about it. If you’re a creator, the truth remains what the truth has been ever since Yahoo tried to sort the web by hand: the best way to make a hit is to build something for the smallest viable audience and make it so good that people tell their peers."

Trecho retirado de "Who is good at discovery?" 

Que sensação de schadenfreude...

 No país onde se espalharam estes cartazes:

No país onde se teimou em fazer dos cidadãos, obedientes seguidores das orientações superiormente pensadas e decididas pelos xamãs (ministros, autarcas, ...).

No país que agora reconhece que afinal, tal como o Brasil, não tem economia para suportar um confinamento quanto mais dois, a maioria dos eleitores, pela idade ou profissão, não depende da iniciativa privada, e pretende jogar bilhar como qualquer amador: "Novo confinamento está a ganhar adeptos".

Que sensação de schadenfreude...

Jorge Marrão começava a sua crónica no JdN do passado dia 15 com esta frase: “Os fundos europeus serão o remédio para manter uma doença incurável da sociedade.”

Talvez um segundo confinamento tenha o dom de acabar com este regime para espanto à posteriori dos defensores desse mesmo confinamento. Quantos direitos adquiridos sobreviveriam a um segundo confinamento?

"Supporting people rather than jobs"

Em Dezembro de 2008 escrevi: 

 "Eu, que não tenho a informação que têm os governos, e que não tenho medo de eleições que não disputo, proporia uma receita diferente.

.

Apoio mínimo às empresas de qualquer sector, os consumidores que decidam quem tem direito a sobreviver como empresa.

.

Em contrapartida, apoio máximo às pessoas e sobretudo aos desempregados."

Julgo que já escrevi aqui no blogue algo do mesmo tipo este ano por causa da pandemia. 

Agora no FT apanho "Support people rather than jobs for a more resilient post-Covid economy":

"What should we protect during the coronavirus pandemic: jobs or the people who hold them? Different answers to this question largely explain huge variations in unemployment figures around the world. In the years ahead, they are also likely to distinguish between successful and sluggish recoveries from the crisis.

European countries have generally focused public support on jobs. Various job retention schemes and short hours programmes have kept employees attached to their employers and off the unemployment totals.

The EU unemployment rate has risen only a little,

...

By contrast, generous US support in the form of enhanced jobless benefits has been given to individuals, until this fell victim to political infighting. With the support attached to the person rather than the job, the US unemployment rate leapt from 3.5 per cent in February to 14.7 per cent in April before falling to 8.4 per cent in August.

The underlying conditions in the European and US labour markets were similar, but the type of support had vastly different effects on the unemployment statistics. More importantly, the gulf between the policy approaches will have meaningful and lasting economic effects.

Early in the pandemic, there were many advantages in the European approach. When coronavirus lockdowns appeared to be a short-term emergency response needed to buy time to beat the virus, job subsidies were a smart way to minimise disruption and eventually allow a return to normal. This sort of public insurance works best when the crisis is short, the affected companies require skilled workers and the jobs at risk are high value.

The longer the world has to live with social distancing and the more sectors are unlikely to return to their former glory, the more important it is to find a different solution. In that case, we need to support workers rather than jobs, helping them find alternatives rather than simply waiting and hoping that their old jobs come back. The US strategy now seems preferable.

Supporting people rather than jobs also works better when the roles at risk are lower skilled because fewer months of training are lost when people switch to other positions. With the pandemic disproportionately hitting the lower-skilled and worse-paid retail, hospitality and travel sectors, it is increasingly workers who deserve our support more than their employers.

...

Europe, meanwhile, should now begin to switch away from keeping people attached to jobs that will not return quickly and towards supporting workers find new employment. As time passes, job retention schemes will, in any case, become more and more unfair, because they provide much greater support for those who previously had jobs than for young people who are entering the labour market for the first time.

Recognising that the pandemic has moved into a new phase, the OECD this week urged all its member countries to adjust their responses to Covid-19 “gradually to support workers rather than jobs”. This was not to cut costs, the international organisation emphasised. Rather, governments should be seeking to give people the best possible chance at maximising their earnings over time by helping them find new roles now."

Claro que em Portugal seremos vítimas de algo ainda pior, os delírios hidrogénicos, as maravilhosas novas pilhas de Baalbek ou ...