Lembram-se de Abril passado "for at least the next couple months every organisation in the world is a startup"? Quando o mundo muda é perigoso manter o pensamento que gerou o sucesso no mundo anterior. Há anos que escrevi esta série "Parte VI – Zapatero e os outros".
"Firms that apply planning strategies (i.e., elements of causal behavioral logic) with a focus on accurate predictions and analysis of changing situations tend to outperform those that do not. With its emphasis on actions guided by predefined goals, causation helps firms to efficiently manage scarce resources that are of particular importance for firms operating in emerging market contexts.
Yet, in emerging markets during adverse economic conditions, which are, by nature, extremely turbulent and uncertain environments, formal planning activities fail to produce the desired results. The future stops being predictable enough for forward‐looking analyses, and the conventional strategic and marketing analytical tools fail to provide a robust basis for an effective decision‐making process. As such, in the crisis context, prior plans become largely obsolete and ineffective. Following them leads to SMEs' incapacity to adapt and be flexible in the fast‐changing environment; indeed, in extreme cases, the firms might be better off abandoning any pre‐planned actions altogether, as implementing them are unlikely to lead to an improvement of the situation. This negative effect of crisis on causation's effectiveness gets even more pronounced in the sample of firms that are particularly affected by a macro‐level crisis, which shrinks their resource base while also preventing acquiring the resources in the market. In other words, a severe level of crisis impact on a particular firm might deprive it of the resources needed to implement the pre‐planned activities, thus eliminating the possibility of a positive performance pay‐off from causation.
Moreover, the organizational crisis reduces the scope of possible actions that get into the plans because of the threat‐rigidity reaction. That is, the quality of the causation‐based planning is likely to suffer for the SMEs affected by a crisis in an emerging market. In particular, a crisis limits the decision‐makers' ability to conceive of actions that are different from traditional ones, constraining the scope of analyzed alternatives to only familiar solutions. Firms become strategically “rigid,” choosing to perpetuate established routines and leverage existing competencies, even though they are likely to turn obsolete, leading to the firm‐level crisis in the first place. Thus, in the contexts of major crises, planning‐based logic leads to rigidity that blinds the decision‐makers to emerging opportunities and unexpected courses of action; it inhibits the flexibility and adaptability that are of particular importance for SMEs while they help to eliminate their deficiencies in the midst of crisis.
The effectual behavioral logic, [Moi ici: Recordar "The effectual Logic" que traduzo na minha linguagem mais colorida como "fuçar" e na "A vantagem da ignorância" ] on the other hand, imposes losses on a firm in emerging market contexts under low crisis (when planning seems to be a preferable strategy), yet becomes a driver of performance in situations characterized by high levels of crisis. With respect to performance variability in an emerging market, effectuation acts as a “booster” in low‐crisis conditions yet stabilizes the performance in high‐crisis times."