Amazing Portugal

Esta tarde circulava de carro enquanto ouvi um noticiário da Rádio Renascença. A certa altura oiço Mário Nogueira, líder da FENPROF, enunciar as conclusões (eu escrevi bem, enunciar as conclusões) de um estudo que vai ser liderado por Raquel Varela e que vai durar vários meses. O estudo ainda nem começou e já têm as conclusões. Extraordinário.

Este é um país onde estas coisas acontecem e os media toleram sem perguntas, sem dúvidas, sem noção do ridículo.

Ontem, o presidente do sindicato dos oficiais de justiça pedia um regime excepcional para aposentação aos 60 anos. Hoje, entre as conclusões que Mário Nogueira enunciou estava: a necessidade de u regime excepcional de aposentação para os professores.

Este é um país que não se enxerga. Criam excepções para quem não está sujeito à Lex Rhodia:

"Now while they jettisoned particular goods, all owners were to be proportioned the costs of the lost merchandise, not just the specific owners. For it turned out that they were following a practice that dates to at least 800 B.C., codified in Lex Rhodia, Rhodian Law, after the mercantile Aegean island of Rhodes; the code is no longer extant but has been cited since antiquity. It stipulates that the risks and costs for contingencies are to incurred equally, with no concern of responsibility. Justinian’s code[6] summarizes it:
“It is provided by the Rhodian Law that where merchandise is thrown overboard for the purpose of lightening a ship, what has been lost for the benefit of all must be made up by the contribution of all.”"[Moi ici: Em caso de crise das contas públicas quem é que cai no desemprego?]

O que é que isto quer dizer?

Esta manhã numa fábrica de calçado, enquanto aguardava ser atendido, comecei a folhear uma revista La Conceria (versão inglesa).

A certa altura deparo com uma nota de rodapé nas páginas iniciais que me pôs a pensar: 1 em cada 4 pares de sapatos comprados na Alemanha são comprados online.

O que é que isto quer dizer para quem produz?

Como alguém, numa outra fábrica de calçado, costuma dizer: os sapatos terão de ser produzidos por alguém.

Sim, mas como é que quem produz estabelece relação com os donos das novas prateleiras? Em que feiras é que eles estão? Será que vão a feiras? Será que eles pensam em épocas ou têm outra frequência mais acelerada? Quem faz parte dos seus ecossistemas?

"To defeat a network, we had become a network"

"There is no such thing as an organizational panacea—the details will always be different for different people, places, and objectives—but we believe that our model provides a good blueprint.
Eventually, we all have to take a leap of faith and dive into the swirl. Our destination is a future whose form we may not find comforting, but which has just as much beauty and potential as the straight lines and right angles of the past century of reductionism: this future will take the form of organic networks, resilience engineering, controlled flooding—a world without stop signs.
...
To defeat a network, we had become a network. We had become a team of teams."

E relacionar este "To defeat a network, we had become a network." com a tendência para trabalhar com ecossistemas e plataformas para moldar um mercado? É claro que a guerra não é uma boa metáfora para o mundo económico, mas dá que pensar.


Trechos retirados de "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell.

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

Há dias apanhei este texto, "Craft Beer Is the Strangest, Happiest Economic Story in America". O texto, face ao que se escreve há anos neste blogue, não traz nada de novo. No entanto, é interessante um artigo do mainstream trazer um conjunto de mensagens que por cá são pouco pensadas por quem tem obrigação de preparar as pessoas que vão viver na economia do depois de amanhã.

Ora vejamos:

"The monopolies are coming. In almost every economic sector, including television, books, music, groceries, pharmacies, and advertising, a handful of companies control a prodigious share of the market.[Moi ici: Foi até aqui que nos trouxe o modelo económico do século XX, a crença no eficientismo e, no preço/custo como o principal factor para ganhar clientes/consumidores. Convém não esquecer que nos anos 60 nos Estados Unidos havia um académico, Chamberlin, que queria acabar com as marcas porque iludiam o paradigma da concorrência perfeita introduzindo uma coisa horrorosa, as preferências irracionais]
...
The beer industry has been one of the worst offenders.[Moi ici: Basta pesquisar o marcador cerveja para perceber o quanto é um tema que se segue aqui há anos e até se sonhou no longínquo ano de 2007]"

O artigo começa com factos, 90% da produção de cerveja é da responsabilidade de um duopólio.

"This sort of industry consolidation troubles economists. Research has found that the existence of corporate behemoths stamps out innovation and hurts workers. Indeed, between 2002 and 2007, employment at breweries actually declined in the midst of an economic expansion.[Moi ici: É o eficientismo a funcionar, concentração, automatização, redução da variedade, redução de trabalhadores, unidades cada vez mais produtivas e mais volumosas]
But in the last decade, something strange and extraordinary has happened. Between 2008 and 2016, the number of brewery establishments expanded by a factor of six, and the number of brewery workers grew by 120 percent. Yes, a 200-year-old industry has sextupled its establishments and more than doubled its workforce in less than a decade. Even more incredibly, this has happened during a time when U.S. beer consumption declined.[Moi ici: Por favor, PARAR!!! E voltar a ler este parágrafo]
...
Preliminary mid-2017 numbers from government data are even better. They count nearly 70,000 brewery employees, nearly three times the figure just 10 years ago. Average beer prices have grown nearly 50 percent. So while Americans are drinking less beer than they did in the 2000s (probably a good thing) they’re often paying more for a superior product (another good thing). Meanwhile, the best-selling beers in the country are all in steep decline, as are their producers. Between 2007 and 2016, shipments from five major brewers—Anheuser-Busch, MillerCoors, Heineken, Pabst, and Diageo, which owns Guinness—fell by 14 percent. Goliaths are tumbling, Davids are ascendant, and beer is one of the unambiguously happy stories in the U.S. economy." 

Depois dos factos vêm as interrogações e as estranheza:

"When I first came across these statistics, I couldn’t quite believe them. Technology and globalization are supposed to make modern industries more efficient, but today’s breweries require more people to produce fewer barrels of beer. Moreover, consolidation is supposed to crush innovation and destroy entrepreneurs, but breweries are multiplying, even as sales shrink for each of the four most popular beers:
...
The source of these new jobs and new establishments is no mystery to beer fans. It’s the craft-beer revolution, that Cambrian explosion of small-scale breweries that have sprouted across the country.
...
But what explains the nature of the craft-beer boom?
...
The first cause is something simple yet capricious—consumer tastes. “At the end of the day, the craft-beer movement was driven by consumer demand,” said Bart Watson, the chief economist at the Brewers Association, a trade group. “We’ve seen three main markers in the rise of craft beer—fuller flavor, greater variety, and more intense support for local businesses.”[Moi ici: Tudo coisas que encaixam no nosso modelo de Mongo - não somos plankton, explosão de diversidade e tribos, proximidade e autenticidade]
...
Craft breweries have focused on tastes that were underrepresented in the hyper-consolidated beer market. Large breweries ignored burgeoning niches, ... It’s also significant that the craft beer movement took off during the Great Recession, as joblessness created a generation of “necessity entrepreneurs” who, lacking formal offers, opened small-time breweries.
...
A phalanx of small businesses doesn’t automatically constitute a perfect economy. There are benefits to size. Larger companies can support greater production, and as a result they often pay the highest wages and attract the best talent. But what the U.S. economy seems to suffer from now isn't a fetish for smallness, but a complacency with enormity. The craft-beer movement is an exception to that rule. It ought to be a model for the country."

Os gigantes não resvalam para a "suckiness" por causa de má gestão, mas porque está-lhes no sangue. As vantagens de ser gigante só existem se se produzir grandes séries iguais. Grandes séries iguais têm de apontar ao gosto mais comum, não podem fugir da média. Isto num tempo em que há cada vez mais tribos que valorizam o que é visto pela maioria, cada vez mais pequena, como extremismo. E essas tribos extremistas não transigem.

Esta série não fica por aqui.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"the host firm of our research study worked actively to shape its markets by embracing not only the new technology and the firm's market offers, but also the unspoken rules, guidelines and evaluation schemes developed over time by the actors in a proposed new market and shared among them.
.
A firm aiming to shape a market needs to have in place a conscious and active market strategy, which demands specific skill sets (often new) and competences, a long-term perspective, and dedicated senior managers who recognize the long-term value of these activities, given that market-shaping strategy does not necessarily deliver short-term financial results).
What is evident from our study is that, to succeed in its market- shaping ambitions, a firm needs to build its recognition and legitimacy and secure market access by placing emphasis on all three levels of influence.
...
a firm seeking to shape the market needs to carry out multiple activities aimed at all three levels of influence and commit multiple resources to that effort if it is to be effective.
...
A market-shaping firm must also be able to balance a range of time horizons and influence levels effectively, so that the inherent activities form reinforcing cycles and support each other.
...
A market-shaping firm thus needs to be proficient in working at different levels of tangibility in its offers, such as abstract levels that cater to general audiences in one-to-many interactions and concrete levels that, for example, demonstrate value propositions in one-to-one interactions. It therefore needs to recruit and develop different competences and skills, such as in customizing the type of information and delivery mode to many customers in different situations. Strategies employed to build the appropriate competences often focus on the training of sales and R & D staff to interact with a variety of kinds of target audiences and communicate different types of information"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Not only did print on demand provide an easy way to offer my customers more options, but it was also a simple way to spread brand awareness without having to fill my apartment with inventory.
The world of print-on-demand fashion has revolutionized the side hustle and merchandising game for many entrepreneurs. There is no risk in launching a new T-shirt design in your store because there is no preprinting and inventory required.
...
“E-commerce is all about finding ways to do things faster, cheaper, and easier,” ... “The fact that I can run a profitable business out of my home, with no office space, employees, or startup costs is pretty phenomenal.”
...
Some store owners have taken advantage of these same tools to make hyper-personalized items.
...
Despite these advantages, one of the largest downsides to print on demand remains the price. When no quantities are guaranteed up front, the prices for printing are not cheap, leaving a low profit margin for the seller.
...
Print-on-demand platforms make it easy for artists to list their work on a multitude of shirts, posters, mugs, and so on without testing them in advance. Companies make this variety tempting to give customers a greater selection and increase the chances they’ll make a purchase.
...
In our fast-paced era of online content creation, social media stars with big fan bases are becoming much more common. For smaller stars with dedicated followings, these on-demand opportunities can also be fantastic for creating branded merchandise. YouTubers and podcasters can let their fans be brand ambassadors, spreading the word and growing the hype.
...
But on-demand printing is not limited to fashion. It’s also a wonderful way for writers to self-publish.
...
Overall, on-demand printing and its integration with various platforms is empowering designers and creators alike to take charge over their creative ventures and not be limited by traditional business or industry barriers. It makes small fashion businesses more accessible and brings buyers a more custom experience."

Recordar todos aqueles que têm sempre na boca a inovação, a Indústria 4.0, a IA e, continuam a acreditar que a escala é tudo:

"Hoje em dia, na grande parte das actividades, a escala é muito importante."

E não percebem a dispersão crescente da procura, de como a autenticidade é cada vez mais importante e de como há cada vez menos barreiras à entrada: a democratização da produção.




Trechos retirados de "Technology Shaping the Fashion Industry"

"price fairness perception" (Parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e Parte IV.

"Proposition 5: Managerial overemphasis on customer price fairness perception is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing." 

"“[P]erhaps few ideas have wider currency than the mistaken impression that prices are or should be determined by costs of production”. The prevalence of this notion is perhaps surpassed only by the incorrect perception among both customers and suppliers that cost-based prices are fair. Research in psychology suggests that egocentrism leads to biased fairness judgments —a proposition corroborated by marketing research on price fairness.
...
As deviations from the norm also have a negative influence on price fairness perception, the predominant focus on cost-based pricing in many industries may better explain the biased per- ception of value-based pricing as unfair.
.
Pricing, then, should be based on value rather than costs. Drawing on service-dominant logic ... pricing is a co-creational practice, characterizing it as
.
“a negotiation process in which buyers and sellers jointly assess the value in context for the buyer. In this process, prices eventually get influenced by various customer resources, including their ability to trust the seller, anticipate future transactions (‘give now, take later’), argue about price fairness, and resolve conflicts.”
.
As pricing is based on both parties' joint evaluation, such practices allow both buyer and seller to capture a fair share of value. Nevertheless, firms seem concerned that customers view practices that emphasize value-based pricing as unfair."

Aversão à ambiguidade (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"Proposition 4: Managerial ambiguity aversion is negatively (positively) related to the extent to which firms practice value-based (cost-based) pricing."

Quanto mais os gestores têm medo da ambiguidade menos praticam o value-based pricing!

"Ambiguity is “the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a prediction”. People tend to avoid decisions based on ambiguous information.
...
Although research has traditionally regarded pricing as simple, it is in practice a difficult process involving vague and uncertain information. As pricing decisions are based on uncertain information concerning risks, managerial ambiguity aversion has practical ramifications for price-setting, aggravated by the need to allocate limited managerial resources (e.g., attention, time, money) to different managerial tasks.
In such circumstances, it is perhaps unsurprising that managers often avoid ambiguity when making decisions and instead rely on simple heuristics.
...
Managers often lack precise information about customer perceived value, which is difficult to collect and evaluate. In contrast, cost information (e.g., unit cost) is often readily available and may appear precise and unambiguous. Although information about customer perceived value remains the most useful for profitable pricing, it is imprecise, ambiguous, and hard to quantify. For that reason, more certain information is given more weight in decision-making.
...
while cost-based pricing is inherently ambiguity- averse, value-based pricing requires managers to accept some degree of ambiguity or vague information. Consequently, only managers who can tolerate ambiguity will be able to commit to value-based pricing practices. In other words, managers should remember “that it is better to be approximately right than to be precisely wrong”

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem ao longo dos anos segue este blogue, conhece a minha metáfora de Mongo sobre o mundo económico para onde caminhámos, e sobre como esse mundo representa um distanciamento face ao paradigma que formatou as universidades e os cursos de economia e gestão, moldados nos modelos da produção em massa, da escala, daquilo a que chamo de Metropolis ou Magnitogorsk, crentes na racionalidade das decisões.

Quem conhece a metáfora de Mongo, olhe bem para o tweet que se segue:

The explosion of craft brewing could be an early signal of a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses https://t.co/rF3q7MT48A

— John Hagel (@jhagel) January 27, 2018

Reparem:

"a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses"

Como isto é nem mais nem menos o que aqui dizemos desde Novembro de 2007:

"Se Chris Anderson tiver razão, e espero bem que sim, trata-se de uma esperança, para as sociedades dos países pequenos. Quanto mais aumentar o poder da cauda longa, mais oportunidades de negócio existirão, para as pequenas empresas, rápidas e flexíveis que apostarem na diferenciação, na diversidade, na variedade. A cabeça pode ficar para os asiáticos, mas a nata das margens, essa ficará para quem, como dizia Jesus Cristo, tiver olhos para ver, e ouvidos para ouvir, a corrente, a tendência de fundo."

Na parte III vamos mergulhar nas implicações das produções "on demand" para na parte IV analisarmos o artigo sobre as cervejas artesanais e o seu simbolismo.

Fugir do preço tout court

Vários exemplos de um caminho viável, pelo menos genericamente, para PME rápidas, com estrutura produtiva ajustada a produções de nicho e com custos de estrutura incompatíveis com a competição pelo volume em:

• Inovafil aposta em fios inovadores para garantir futuro

"quer que 50% da sua produção seja de fios que integrem inovação e sejam um elemento de diferenciação.
...
Para a Inovafil, os fios diferenciadores e de valor acrescentando são a grande aposta, sendo que nos próximos anos a empresa pretende mesmo dedicar até 50% da sua produção aos têxteis técnicos e funcionais, elevando assim a fiação para um novo patamar.
...
“A nossa estratégia é sermos não só moda, mas também desporto, técnicos e funcionais, porque são têxteis que vão deixar de ser um nicho de mercado quando essas funcionalidades começarem a ser introduzidas naquilo que é o nosso vestuário do dia-a-dia”,[Moi ici: Isto pode ser perigoso, também. Recordar o que aprendi com as salamandras. Entretanto, ontem descobri esta frase "HP co-founder David Packard, she warned me that “more companies die of indigestion than starvation."]

• Têxteis. Como eles (e elas) brilham na Alemanha

"A Ispo, a maior feira de artigos desportivos do mundo ainda não começou, mas os têxteis portugueses já estão a contabilizar prémios e recordes com produtos técnicos e funcionais que prometem tornar a roupa do futuro mais leve, confortável, amiga do ambiente.
.
Ao todo, as empresas portuguesas arrecadaram 36 galardões no fórum Ispo Textrends, ... quis, também, lançar um projeto próprio, direcionado para nichos de mercado mais técnicos, onde pode desenvolver o seu gosto por produtos inovadores."

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness"

Pretty good generalization: Giant companies focus on cost cutting/short-term earnings. SMEs focus on value creation/mid- to long-term performance. (Halfway decent generalization: Giants invariably descend into suckiness, some more slowly than others.)

— Tom Peters (@tom_peters) January 25, 2018

Recordar "De que serve a escala em Mongo?"

Recomendo a leitura do texto inicial sobre o plankton, "Are we not plankton?":

"Whales have to eat a lot of plankton. A whale needs an enormous number of these tiny creatures because, let's be honest, one plankton just doesn't make a meal.
...
It's unlikely the whale savors each plankton, relishing the value that it brings.
For most modern marketers, quantity isn't the point. What matters is to matter. Lives changed. Work that made an actual difference. Connection.
.
You are not a plankton. Neither are your customers."

O efeito da soma nula (parte III)

Parte I e parte II. 

"Proposition 3: Managerial perception of pricing as a fixed-pie problem is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing."

"The fixed-pie bias has been defined as “the judgment that one's own interests are diametrically opposed to [those of] one's opponent”. Commonly found in the negotiation literature, this bias prevents integrative negotiations to increase the metaphorical “pie” for both parties. ... For example, ... “[t]he dominant assumption [of managers regarding pricing] is that what is gained by the firm is lost by the customer and vice versa, and that pricing is, in the end, a zero-sum game”
...
A focus on cost-based pricing is common in business markets. As cost-based pricing is myopic (beginning with the product and ending with the customer), marketing must demonstrate value to defend prices. As a consequence, production costs are fixed, and potential customer value is also fixed (or at least constrained). Certainly, pricing appears to be a zero-sum game in such a situation; as price is the only flexible element, one firm's gain is the other's loss. In contrast, value-based pricing begins with the customer and their perception of value; costs and prices are flexible and contingent on customer needs. In other words, the only costs imposed on customers are those necessary to provide the benefits that customers actually want.
...
As a customer-focused practice, value-based pricing can potentially turn business relationships into win-win situations through a better understanding of customers' perceived value, so increasing profits for both customers and suppliers. [Moi ici: Porque não percebia isto, quando em 1992 li Marn & Rosiello chamei-lhes burros. Só anos depois percebi que o burro era eu] However, the more common managerial view is to perceive pricing as a win-lose situation. On this view, superior customer value creation and capturing part of that value in the form of reasonable profit are contradictory objectives, thus inhibiting value- based pricing in business markets."

Sintomas do sorrateiramente

• Sorrateiramente ... (Janeiro 2018)
• Sintomas (Novembro 2017)

Há dias o @hnascim chamou-me a atenção para mais este título "Há cada vez menos portugueses disponíveis para aceitar convites de outras empresas" a que acrescento estes outros dois:

• Em breve, jovens não chegarão para satisfazer necessidades do mercado de trabalho (não concordo com esta visão de que as pessoas não têm filhos por questões financeiras, para mim é uma questão cultural)
• Envelhecimento coloca pressão acrescida ao mercado de trabalho

Vai impor grandes mudanças no mercado de trabalho. Algumas como as que o @nticomuna relata no Twitter, por exemplo:

A GRANDE CONVERGÊNCIA pic.twitter.com/qpRwox1zmd

— anti-comuna (@nticomuna) January 24, 2018

De que serve a escala em Mongo?

Este tema faz-me sempre recuar ao plankton e a Golias:

• Plankton? (Março 2014)
• Mongo não é um mundo gigantes-friendly (parte III) (Janeiro 2016)
• E porque não somos plankton (parte VII) (Julho 2016)
• Será o efeito de Mongo? (Outubro 2017)

Mais um exemplo como a Chobani, "Halo Top raises stakes in ice-cream wars":

"Halo Top sales grew 2,500 per cent year-on-year in 2016; it has taken a 5 per cent scoop of the US ice-cream market within two years.
.
That rate of growth is enough to make multinational food producers choke, given annual sales growth was languishing at an average of 2-3 per cent last year."

Só demonstra como as empresas grandes não têm a vantagem da escala em Mongo.

"Rise above the culture of victimization you see all around you"

"Life is suffering, Peterson reiterates. Don’t be fooled by the naïve optimism of progressive ideology. Life is about remorseless struggle and pain. Your instinct is to whine, to play the victim, to seek vengeance.
...
Rise above the culture of victimization you see all around you. Stop whining. Don’t blame others or seek revenge. “The individual must conduct his or her life in a manner that requires the rejection of immediate gratification, of natural and perverse desires alike.”
.
Instead, choose discipline, courage and self-sacrifice. “To stand up straight with your shoulders back is to accept the terrible responsibility of life.” Never lie. Tell your boss what you really think. Be strict with your children. Drop the friends who bring you down. Break free from the needy mother who controls you."

Trechos retirados de "The Jordan Peterson Moment"

"time, attention, and money"

"But no matter what business you think you are in, recognize that because of the rise of today’s Experience Economy you now compete against the world. You may think your competition is only with other retailers, or only with other companies in your geographic area, but in fact you compete with every other company in the world for the time, attention, and money of individual consumers. There is a reason we use the word “spend” in front of each of these three nouns, for they are the currencies of the Experience Economy.
.
And time is limited. We can only experience twenty- four hours a day, seven days a week – and we have to fit
...
 you need to understand a fundamental principle of the Experience Economy: the experience is the marketing! The best way to generate demand for your retail stores – the mission of marketing – is to create an experience that is so engaging that consumers cannot help but spend time with you, give you their attention, and then buy your merchandise as a result."

Trechos retirados de "Your competition? The world"

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Market offer level.
The exchange object – the value proposition or market offer, including the products and services that make up that offer – is a central element of the understanding of markets. ... “markets are created when actors, dyads, triads, complex networks, and service ecosystems evolve through unique service provision efforts”.
...
the importance of defining what should be exchanged, specifically that the different market actors in a collaborative process need to define that object and the potential value it might have. That value might be idiosyncratically understood and thus differ between actors. A market-shaping strategy thus needs to include an interaction between actors in a market or a channel within it as a value proposition emerges. ... from a marketing management perspective, ... suppliers need to include downstream actors to a greater degree when the suppliers try to grow a market. A sales force, for example, can function as a direct link to the direct customer and other actors when a firm tries to shape market expectations."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

Aguardemos pelos desenvolvimentos

Eu só sou um anónimo consultor da província, estudo umas coisas, faço outras e vejo outras ainda. A minha experiência formata-me e condiciona o meu pensamento e o campo de possibilidades que antevejo.

Por isso, esta semana, numa empresa com um comportamento semelhante ao das bolas vermelhas da figura:

Perguntaram-me, qual o principal problema das empresas portuguesas (PME)?

Pensei no tecto de vidro, mas evitei a expressão e, apresentei esta figura.

Ontem, ao ler "ACO Shoes cresce à boleia da Europa de Leste" pensei numa frase recente de Nassim Taleb:

"l'entrepreneur peut tout perdre ou travailler sans compter son temps. Mais c'est grâce à ce genre de folie individuelle qu'une société fonctionne."

O que é que sublinhei? Por um lado, aquilo que é a base do sucesso actual:

"Especializada em calçado de conforto, a ACO produz 1,5 milhões de pares de sapatos, cerca de cinco mil pares por cada dia útil da semana."

Depois, por outro lado, aquilo em que a empresa pretende apostar no futuro:

"Para 2018, a empresa está a apostar em produtos de alto valor acrescentado, através da criação de um calçado mais técnico, e que se insere numa estratégia virada para o mercado português." 

Acredito que esta aposta para 2018 foi mal apanhada pela jornalista, justificação mais benévola, tal a falta de alinhamento.

Primeiro: a proposta de valor para vender sapato de conforto é diferente da proposta de valor para vender sapato técnico;
Segundo: os comerciais que vendem uma coisa têm de usar outra argumentação para vender outra;
Terceiro: as prateleiras onde se vendem uns sapatos são diferentes das prateleiras onde se vendem os outros;
Quarto: alto valor acrescentado para o mercado português é quase um oxímoro. Tirando brincadeiras e experiências de bolso o mercado português não suporta produções de alto valor acrescentado.

No entanto, eu só sou um consultor anónimo. Aguardemos pelos desenvolvimentos.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte II)

Parte I.

"System level...
This is the level at which norms and regulations set the boundaries and rules for an entire market. A narrow focus on the customer is essential but not enough for shaping a market; instead, an understanding of the whole system, including a focus on downstream actors, becomes important. To understand the system implies an understanding of the institutions as “humanly devised rules, norms, and meanings that enable and constrain human action”, and also of the institutional arrangements, such as interdependent networks of institutions. As institutions and institutional arrangements are set up by individuals, the arrangements are neither static nor pre-conceived. Instead, they are representations of the interests of different groups and can thus be acted upon and influenced, by means of an iterative and dynamic process described as ‘institutionalization’, which may involve suppliers and customers as well as other actors. As institutions have a strong influence on the actions of firms and individuals, it can be beneficial to try to influence them and thereby influence the direction in which a market develops. Consequently, addressing the system level is an essential aspect of market shaping."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

O efeito de rebanho (parte II)

Parte I.

O segundo viés cognitivo é o do efeito de rebanho.

"Proposition 2: The extent of managerial price herding is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing."

O que é isto do efeito de rebanho?

"Herding is defined as individual disregard of private information, instead basing decisions on the observed actions of the majority. In so doing, individuals assume that decisions taken by the majority constitute valuable information for their own decision-making.
...
In the context of pricing, managers who engage in herding deliberately disregard private information (e.g., about customers' purchase history) and instead conform to market prices. The assumption underlying this herding effect is that market prices constitute a viable point of reference. Managers may resort to herding because they believe that competitor prices reveal information about the market, or that pricing like one's competitors seems a justifiable tactic. ... many firms evade responsibility for pricing decisions by following market or competitor prices instead. Managers “do not want to stand alone when they increase the prices if the competition does not move”. In other words, managers fear accountability in the event of an unfavorable outcome. This suggests that herding's foundations may be motivational as well as cognitive. On the other hand, ... firms that “set the rules of the game” —do not hand over pricing responsibility to the market but instead price strategically. In other words, these firms consider pricing to be a matter of meticulous managerial activity.
...
companies that simply match competitors' prices irrespective of cost and customer considerations are mimicking those competitors rather than analyzing them; this is not competition-based pricing but rather indicates a herd mentality.
...
That said, the weight of the evidence suggests that price herding is habitual rather than strategic. Consequently, a herd mentality is myopic, as it typically neglects distinct product characteristics, and increases the likelihood of price wars. That being so, it becomes important to understand product differences and to withstand competitive price pressure.
The fundamental issue with price herding is its reactive nature and its disregard for potentially useful information about cost and customer value. Moreover, a strong emphasis on market and competitor prices diverts managerial attention from the effort to comprehend customer perceived value. [Moi ici: Recordar Dastardly] It also distracts from efforts to comprehend the strategic actions of competitors (e.g., their pricing strategy) and to observe or anticipate market developments (e.g., changes in market structure or segments)."

Trechos retirados de "Value-based pricing and cognitive biases: An overview for business markets" de Mario Kienzler e publicado online por Industrial Marketing Management.

Arrancar com o sistema de gestão (parte I)

Realizámos uma sessão de Kick-off com a gestão de topo onde usámos o material preparado nesta série de postais.

Vamos arrancar com a primeira sessão de trabalho na próxima semana. Eis o plano que preparei para a mesma:

Na sequência da sessão de Kick-Off do Projecto ISO 9001 ficamos comprometidos para arrancar com a vertente estratégica do sistema de gestão num "retiro" a realizar a 2 e 3 de Março.

Entretanto, para o próximo dia 29 de Janeiro ficamos de arrancar com a vertente operacional do sistema de gestão. Proponho que na reunião abordemos os seguintes temas:

• Desenharmos uma forma simples de divulgar o projecto e o seu arranque a toda a empresa. Algo que permita responder a:

O que comunicar? (O porquê do projecto, por que é importante para a empresa. Qual o papel de cada um, quem é a equipa do projecto, qual a duração prevista para o projecto)
Quando vamos comunicar e a quem?
Como vamos comunicar e quem vai comunicar (podem ser diferentes pessoas para diferentes grupos se necessário)

• Estrutura documental do sistema de gestão (qual o propósito de cada tipo de documento)

Manual do sistema;
Fichas de processo;
Instruções de trabalho;
Impressos.

• O que diz a ISO 9001:2015 sobre a documentação (ver cláusula 7.5, por causa das regras de identificação, criação, aprovação, divulgação e controlo)
• O que diz a ISO 9001:2015 sobre instruções de trabalho (ver cláusula 4.4.2)
• A ISO 9001:2015 obriga a desenhar o mapa da interacção dos processos (cláusula 4.4.1 b)). 

Tenho uma base de trabalho que criei a pensar na empresa. É uma base de trabalho que vamos ter de afinar entre nós os dois, e conversando com a gestão de topo para termos uma versão final em que se revejam. Ainda que não seja a versão final, podemos fazer uma tabela para depois ser preenchida para relacionar processos com intervenientes. A ideia será pedir depois aos responsáveis que indiquem, para cada processo, quem deve ser ouvido por nós ao cartografar a descrição do processo

"Gaining understanding is not always the same as predicting"

Algo interessante sobre a ilusão do Big Data, de que falo aqui há algum tempo e que McChrystal descreve de forma mais eloquente:

"The industrial world, where almost everything could be measured and mechanized—where individual variables could be isolated, tested, and optimized—lent itself to this model. As complicated as it was, it almost all lay under the manager’s capacity for calculation, prediction, and control. Planned efficiency became the lifeblood of “good management.” Everything else, from physical design to organizational structure to leadership behavior, was a natural extension of this goal.
.
As we have crept toward the “many to many” environment of complexity, we have engineered increasingly complicated solutions: gifted managers have developed intricate protocols and organizational hierarchies to cover all likelihoods. The baseline belief that any problem can be known in its entirety has never faded. Anyone who has worked in business or government for a few decades can testify to the seemingly endless increases in rules and paperwork.
...
We hear a great deal about the wonders of “Big Data,” which certainly has advanced our understanding of the world in dramatic ways. Retailers can track who bought what, and where they bought it. Sociologists can sift through vast amounts of political, economic, and societal information searching for patterns. There is tremendous potential for this technology, but, as with Blue Force Tracker and the other tools at our disposal in Iraq, it is unlikely that it will enable effective long- term prediction of the type that we crave. Data-rich records can be wonderful for explaining how complex phenomena happened and how they might happen, but they can’t tell us when and where they will happen. For instance, data on the spread of a virus can provide an insight into how contagion patterns look in our networked world, but that is very different from knowing exactly where the next outbreak will occur, who precisely will end up getting sick, and where they will go next. Gaining understanding is not always the same as predicting.
...
Big Data will not save us because the same technological advances that brought us these mountains of information and the digital resources for analyzing them have at the same time created volatile communication webs and media platforms, taking aspects of society that once resembled comets and turning them into cold fronts. We have moved from data-poor but fairly predictable settings to data-rich, uncertain ones."

Trechos retirados de "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado

Mergulhar naquilo que passa ao lado de muita gente que olha para a cláusula 4.2 da ISO 9001:2015

"We have already noted the consensus among authors that firms act on markets and shape them, with such other stakeholders as suppliers and customers, as opposed to merely targeting selected existing segments.
...
Focal actors can thus influence markets – both new as well as mature markets – not only by persuasion of existing targets via such conventional marketing activities as selling and promotion but also by learning and developing their knowledge of both the market itself and the other actors within it, in a market- shaping process.
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It is thus possible to discern a move away from the dominant marketing metaphor that emphasizes markets as preexisting, to be targeted and acted upon, to one that treats them as elements of ongoing processes, to be influenced and shaped by the actors involved through their own activities, and through the coordinated activities of multiple actors. Markets are thus being continuously shaped and reshaped, and our understanding of the market-shaping processes involved can be enhanced by examining the activities in those markets.
...
market changes can be seen as a response to actions, practices or ongoing activities
...
In our research, we have chosen the term ‘market shaping’ to describe the composite activities involved in shaping markets, including active and conscious choices aiming at shaping the market structure and shaping market behavior. In market shaping, a broad range of technological, exchange-related and institutional activities are deployed by the main actor in the process to influence and shape a target market.
...
Market-shaping activities cover a broad range: some have an operational firm-oriented focus, such as in individual selling situations, while others have a strategic, long-term and network-oriented focus, such as the changing of market norms and the way business is done in a particular market. They thus can act on a multitude of levels, spanning such activities as negotiating prices and conducting sales meetings, to increasingly systemic activities performed with long-term objectives in mind. In other words, market-shaping activities can take place and have their effect at different levels of influence, which we define here as ‘system’, ‘market offer’ and ‘technology’."

Como não relacionar este tema com o postal anterior e o enfoque no locus de controlo. Uma equipa de gestão de uma PME portuguesa assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado.

BTW, um aviso:

"Complex systems are fickle and volatile, presenting a broad range of possible outcomes; the type and sheer number of interactions prevent us from making accurate predictions. As a result, treating an ecosystem as though it were a machine with predictable trajectories from input to output is a dangerous folly."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

Nada atraente

o Paulo Peres chamou-me a atenção para um artigo que me parece muito bom, "Value-based pricing and cognitive biases: An overview for business markets" de Mario Kienzler e publicado online por Industrial Marketing Management. O artigo lida com 4 vieses cognitivos que afectam a temática do pricing por parte dos agentes económicos.

Mal comecei a ler o artigo apreciei a quantidade de autores que ao longo dos anos li e que agora aparecem num texto sobre pricing. Nomes como: Kahneman, Gigerenzer e Ariely. Depois, quando encontro uma relação entre um tema que há longos anos aqui tenho referido, o locus de controlo, com o pricing, foi ouro sobre azul. 

Vejamos então o primeiro viés cognitivo: A percepção da falta de controlo.

"Proposition 1: The extent of managers' internal (external) LOC is positively (negatively) related to the extent to which firms practice value- based pricing."

Racional para isto?

"Control is an important concept in psychology and sociology, frequently operationalized as a subjective, domain-specific, and outcome- oriented construct related to locus of control (LOC) ... individuals with an external LOC perceive luck, coincidence, or influ-ential others as shaping external events that they must passively bear.
..
Research in psychology has frequently investigated the illusion of control—that is, overestimation of one's perceived control in chance situations. In contrast, perceived lack of control is defined as the tendency to underestimate one's control over events. The evidence suggests that people tend to under- estimate their control in situations where they actually have control.
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In the context of pricing, perceived lack of control manifests as a subjective perception of managerial control over pricing that leads to a concrete price outcome. As such, a range of evidence suggests that LOC affects managerial pricing practices. More precisely, managers with an external LOC react positively to pricing practices that emphasize cost- or competition-based pricing.
...
many managers believe they have no control over pricing and that “‘we determine our costs and take our industry's traditional margins’ or ‘the market sets the price and we have to figure out how to cope with it.’”
...
entrepreneurs with an external locus of control prefer low-cost strategies—that is, strategies with a focus on costs and low prices.
.
Managers characterized by perceived lack of control over pricing are passive and rely on docile pricing practices such as adding a margin to costs or matching market prices. In contrast, value-based pricing requires managers to actively and confidently influence pricing through their behavior—a view associated with an internal LOC."

Depois destes sublinhados, regresso ao primeiro postal, de 2007, onde mencionei aqui o tema locus de controlo e a duas perguntas que fiz na altura:

"E quando um gestor tem o seu Locus de Controlo no exterior?.
Aparecem-nos comportamentos deste tipo.
Os telejornais, os foruns, os jornais e as antenas abertas, são o palco para quem se queixa dos chineses, esses malvados, ou dos espanhóis, ou dos polacos, ou dos marroquinos, ou dos portuenses, ou dos lisboetas, ou dos bracarenses... a culpa é sempre dos outros.
...
E quando numa comunidade a maioria dos seus membros tem o seu Locus de Controlo no exterior? Nada atraente!!!"

"enjoy the “quiet life.”"

"In competitive markets, managers have a strong incentive to give their best effort. But economists have long argued that when companies are insulated from competition, their managers may not be motivated to maximize the profit of the firm and instead may choose to enjoy the “quiet life.” Similarly, without sufficient monitoring by owners of the firms or the stock market, managers might be tempted to enjoy the quiet life instead of making hard decisions or taking on difficult tasks.
...
Taken together, our results are consistent with the quiet life hypothesis. Without competition or monitoring, managers do seem to put off hard decisions."

Trechos retirados de "The “Quiet Life” Hypothesis Is Real: Managers Will Put Off Hard Decisions If They Can"

Market shaping

Um tema que aprecio muito: quando uma empresa assume o desafio de influenciar o mercado, trabalhando o ecossistema.

"Market shaping is increasingly being recognized as a viable and deliberate market strategy, for firms that construe markets as being malleable, and thus possible to ‘shape’. A market-shaping perspective emphasizes markets as elements of ongoing processes, to be influenced and shaped by the actors involved through their own activities, and through the coordinated activities of multiple actors. Market-shaping thus aims to influence a market by means of activities aimed at a wider array of actors than just direct customers, such as their own customers, in pursuit of increased and sustainable competitive advantage. These market-shaping activities can stretch from traditional firm level activities such as sales to activities that involve the entire markets institution e.g. changing the rules of the market.
.
Shaping a market can often be challenging, however, especially for incumbent firms in mature markets with established market structures and behaviors or business models."

E depois, uma narrativa que me soa tão familiar:

"this firm faces increasingly saturated traditional markets, as well as potentially declining growth. To address this challenge, it has been working continuously to realize a market-shaping strategy, the foundation of which has been the shaping of previously unserved market niches into new market segments susceptible to a changed, sometimes radically different, technology. In many potential segments, the technology was not proven and had not been previously used, which required the firm under study to shape the market in such a way as to create opportunities for future market offers.
.
To that end, it carried out a range of single and composite activities at three levels and involving various actors. The levels could be defined as: ‘system’, concerned with a system of actors in the process; ‘market’, relating to more tangible customer-supplier relationships; and ‘technology, focused on the more fundamental aspects of building the whole operation. The actors involved would thus include both direct and indirect customers as well as other stakeholders."

Quantas pessoas conseguem relacionar esta temática com a nova cláusula sobre as partes interessadas relevantes incluída na ISO 9001:2015.

Vamos descascar este artigo com calma para tirar o máximo sumo.

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

"you only see what you aim at"

"So if we are all monsters, how are we to be saved? The first thing is to understand how our worldview evolves. Crucial to this is a 20-year-old experiment on inattention – the famous Invisible Gorilla experiment. This involved recording two teams of basketball players and playing back the game to observers, who were asked to count the number of passes their team made. During the game, a man in a gorilla suit walks on to the court, pounds his chest and then walks off. More than 50% of the observers, astonishingly, did not notice the gorilla at all.
.
Why is this so important? Because, as Peterson notes, you only see what you aim at – not only metaphorically but also literally and physiologically. Your perception is adjusted to your aims. So if your aims are dark and corrupted, you will see the dark and corrupt things that facilitate your aims. And if your aims are high, you will see different things. Belief colours perception. This fits in with his claim that you must pursue proper meaning rather than happiness."

Recordar o que aqui escrevemos ao longo dos anos acerca do retorno da atenção. Tornamos-nos naquilo que pensamos. Se pensarmos baixo seremos baixos.

Trecho retirado de "Jordan Peterson: ‘The pursuit of happiness is a pointless goal’"

Mais do que uma treta (parte III)

Antes de mais recordar "Mais do que uma treta (parte II)" o radar para:

"o que não sabemos que não sabemos"

Depois,  considerar:

"So how can we prepare for the future? Growth and transformation invariably require new capabilities for the business, teams, and individuals. We all have to do things we’re not good at. Relying on routines, not strengths, is the surest way to build readiness for growth. Routines make it easier to execute today’s business while preparing for the future.
.
What do I mean by a routine? A routine is a pattern of activity regularly followed. Routines and processes are not the same thing.
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Processes are sequenced activities that convert inputs into more valuable outputs. ... Routines also are patterns of activity, but they don’t drive a standard outcome or try to reduce cycle time or variability. A routine can be super simple, like starting the day by talking with your colleagues rather than opening your e-mail. This routine sparks new ideas, builds friendship, and can energize you. When you have a routine like this in place, it slowly changes how you interact with others. As you change how you interact with others, the conversations change you. Routines also can be great for teams."

Como é que se descobrem coisas que não sabemos que não sabemos? Instituindo rotinas que funcionam como um radar que capta sinais que têm de ser analisados e interpretados.

Trechos retirados de "Pacing for Growth: Why Intelligent Restraint Drives Long-term Success" de  Alison Eyring.

Tríade, Taylor, Mongo e a Al Qaeda

Em "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell encontro um paralelismo que faço há muitos anos e que traduzo em linguagem colorida como em "os encalhados da tríade".

O mundo que formatou a tríade (políticos, académicos e comentadores) foi o mundo de Metropolis, o mundo de Magnitogorsk, o mundo da eficiência, um mundo criado pelo taylorismo:

"Taylor created a clockwork factory, systematically eliminating variation, studying all labor until he understood it inside and out, honing it to peak efficiency, and ensuring that those precise procedures were followed at scale. Because he could study and predict, he could control. He dubbed his doctrine "scientific management."
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Taylor became the world's first management guru. At a paper mill in Wisconsin, he was told that the art of pulping and drying could not be reduced to a science. He instituted his system and material costs dropped from $75 to $35 per ton, while labor costs dropped from $30 a ton to $8. At a ball bearing factory, he experimented with everything from lighting levels to rest break durations, and oversaw an increase in quantity and quality of production while reducing the number of employees from 120 to 35; at a pig iron plant, he raised worker output from 12.5 to 47 tons of steel per day, and decreased the number of workers from 600 to 140.
...
Taylor’s ideas spread from company to company, from industry to industry, and from blue collars to white (there was one best way to insert paper into a typewriter, to sit at a desk, to clip pages together). They seeped into the halls of government. His philosophy of replacing the intuition of the person doing the job with reductionist efficiencies designed by a separate group of people marked a new means of organizing human endeavors. It was the behavioral soul mate for the technical advances of industrial engineering.
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Taylor’s success represented the legitimization of “management” as a discipline. Previously, managerial roles were rewards for years of service in the form of higher pay and less strenuous labor. The manager’s main function was to keep things in working order and maintain morale. Under Taylor’s formulation, managers were both research scientists and architects of efficiency.
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This drew a hard-and-fast line between thought and action: managers did the thinking and planning, while workers executed. No longer were laborers expected to understand how or why things worked—in fact, managers saw teaching them that or paying a premium for their expertise as a form of waste.
...
Military planners had relied on many of Taylor’s strategies—the segregation of planning and execution, standardization, and an emphasis on efficiency— for centuries before Taylor was born. But Taylor’s ideas inspired many military leaders to find fresh ways to create a more efficient fighting force.
...
“by the late 1920s, it could seem that all of modern society had come under the sway of a single commanding idea: that waste was wrong and efficiency the highest good, and that eliminating one and achieving the other was best left to the experts.”"

Este é o molde que ao chocar com Mongo deixa de funcionar. Assim como o percebi algures entre 2006 - 2008, McChrystal começou a intui-lo em 2004 ao chocar com a Al Qaeda do Iraque. (Ao longe intuí o mesmo ao aconselhar às PMEs que seguissem o exemplo da Al Qaeda: 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 e 2006)

"This new world required a fundamental rewriting of the rules of the game. In order to win, we would have to set aside many of the lessons that millennia of military procedure and a century of optimized efficiencies had taught us.
...
In 2004, as we planned clockwork raids designed to make the most of every drop of fuel, we were manning a managerial Maginot Line: our extraordinarily efficient procedures and plans were well crafted and necessary, but not sufficient.
...
Over the past century, the kind of organizational measures that ensure the success
of combat parachute assaults have proliferated throughout the military, industry, and business. In today’s environment, however, these solutions are the equivalent of the provincial apprenticeship models that Taylor stumbled upon in 1874. In Iraq, the inexplicable, networked success of our underresourced enemy indicated that they had cracked this nut before we had. Managerially, AQI was flanking us."

E depois de implementar o sistema de gestão (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

O processo: passo a passo. 

Depois de celebrar um contrato com o Organismo de Certificação a sua organização pode solicitar uma pré-auditoria opcional que fornecerá feedback imediato e específico antes do processo padrão começar a rolar.

O processo padrão consiste numa auditoria realizada em duas fases:

Auditoria da fase I. Esta actividade é realizada nas instalações da organização que quer ser certificada. O processo de auditoria inclui uma avaliação da documentação do sistema de gestão e do âmbito de certificação pretendido. Também está incluída uma análise para garantir que as auditorias internas e a revisão pela gestão estão a funcionar e que o nível de implementação do sistema de gestão sustenta que a organização está pronta para a auditoria da fase II. Um relatório de auditoria com resultados é emitido para permitir acções imediatas antes de avançar no processo.

Auditoria da fase II. Processo de avaliação: auditoria no local. Esta etapa geralmente é realizada várias semanas após a realização da auditoria da fase I para garantir que a organização tem tempo para implementar qualquer lacuna verificada anteriormente.

O resultado da auditoria da fase I define a quantidade de tempo entre essas duas auditorias. A auditoria no local determina a conformidade das práticas seguidas com o sistema documentado e com as normas internacionais seguidas. A fim de avaliar completamente o âmbito acordado, é necessário que os produtos incluídos no âmbito estejam em fabricação / processo no momento da auditoria. Se algum produto ou processo não estiver disponível para revisão durante a auditoria, esses itens não serão incluídos no âmbito da certificação. Poderá ser necessário visitar vários locais permanentes ou temporários onde a organização opera.

Todas as conclusões da avaliação baseiam-se na amostragem de evidências de auditoria para demonstrar a implementação efectiva do sistema de gestão, o controle sobre os processos e os progressos realizados para alcançar seus objetivos declarados.

No final da auditoria, o auditor fará uma recomendação dependente das conclusões. Esta recomendação reflectirá o nível de não-conformidades identificadas durante a auditoria.

Não-conformidades. Se uma não-conformidade crítica ou maior for identificada e for causada por uma quebra significativa do controlo do sistema, a decisão de certificação será adiada até uma acção corretiva ter sido tomada e aprovada. Uma não-conformidade menor não impedirá a recomendação para certificação, mas poderá demorá-la, uma vez que a ação planeada deve ser submetida e revista pelo Organismo de Certificação antes da decisão de certificação. A verificação e o encerramento das não-conformidades menores ocorrerá durante a auditoria de acompanhamento seguinte. Eventuais observações que a equipa auditora deixe no final de uma auditoria são oportunidades para melhoria contínua e não requerem aceitação e implementação por parte da organização.

Emissão do relatório. No final da auditoria da fase II, o auditor fará a apresentação das constatações e emitirá a sua recomendação num relatório de auditoria. Isso incluirá a confirmação do âmbito solicitado após a avaliação.


Emissão do certificado. Uma vez tomada a decisão de certificação o certificado é processado e enviado para a sua organização.

Provocação para PME certificadas (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Nos meus Workshops sobre a abordagem baseada no risco costumo usar uma sequência de imagens que culmina nesta:

Aquilo que era um desempenho positivo num ano passará a ser um desempenho negativo no ano seguinte se for repetido.

Por isso, faço as perguntas:

Se pesquisarmos a palavra risco na ISO 9001:2015 verificamos que aparece nas cláusulas:

• 4.4.1 - riscos nos processos (risco de não cumprir o que se espera de um processo)
• 5.1.1 - a gestão de topo deve promover a abordagem baseada no risco
• 5.1.2 - riscos associados à conformidade dos produtos e serviços e ao seu impacte na satisfação dos clientes (pode ser associado não só às especificações como à adequação do produto ao job-to-be-done do cliente. O mesmo produto que se adequa às necessidades dum cliente não serve para outro cliente com um outro desafio. Por isso, foco no cliente é, também foco nos clientes-alvo)
• 6.1 - título
• 6.1.1 - determinar riscos, tendo em conta o contexto e as partes interessadas, e prioridades para tratamento
• 6.1.2 - planear acções para lidar com os riscos e avaliar a sua eficácia
• 9.1.3 - avaliar eficácia das acções para lidar com os riscos
• 9.3.2 - avaliar eficácia das acções para lidar com os riscos
• 10.2.1 actualizar o levantamento dos riscos se necessário, quando acontece uma não-conformidade

Onde determinar riscos?

• nos processos - o que pode levar um processo a não atingir o seu propósito e nível de desempenho esperado?
• nos produtos e serviços - o que pode levar a falhas no cumprimento das especificações dos produtos e serviços?
• na satisfação dos clientes - o que pode levar a falhas no propósito de aumentar a satisfação dos clientes?
• nos objectivos do sistema de gestão - o que pode levar a falhas no cumprimento dos objectivos da organização?

Como se começa 2018?


Viajando no tempo até ao futuro para começar 2018 com os pés em 2019!

 Que resultados quero estar a ver no meu sistema de gestão? Não os resultados do responsável do sistema de gestão, mas os resultados que interessam ao Mr. Burns da organização.


BTW, usava este exemplo em 2008 para explicar a minha interpretação para o uso das acções preventivas. Engraçado como as acções preventivas desapareceram do texto da norma porque foram integradas na abordagem baseada no risco.

"it requires deciding to do some things and not others"

"Use Focus to Invest Energy Disproportionately .
Every business has limited resources. Even in a cash-rich enterprise or well-funded start-up, resources like time and deep expertise are often in short supply. When we focus the resources that most matter to driving growth, they have more impact. We can only achieve this focus by stopping some activities. Growth leaders understand that you can only build capacity for growth by conserving time and energy by making tough choices.
...
Alignment is a word that means different things to different people. Certainly it means coherence or compatibility with a vision or values. But it also refers to: A process of setting goals at subsequently lower levels of the organization that, when rolled up, will add up. I call this “vertical alignment.”
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Processes or activities that deliver to customers and are efficient and working together to create the most value possible. This is “horizontal alignment.” It’s easy to talk about alignment. But building all three kinds—vertical, horizontal, and alignment with vision/values—is a high-exertion activity. Why? Because it requires deciding to do some things and not others. It requires pushing back to more senior leaders who may not be happy with this action. And it can be complicated when the different people involved sit in different offices. Creating real alignment makes us go far outside our comfort zone to resolve deep-seated tensions and disagreements."

Trechos de "Pacing for Growth: Why Intelligent Restraint Drives Long-term Success" de Alison Eyring.

Entretanto, o mundo mudou

"As corporate priorities change, so should the head of strategy."

Como é que uma mesma empresa mantém o mesmo BSC há mais de 10 anos? Como é que o mesmo mapa da estratégia continua válido?

Não continua.

A maioria dos gestores que desenharam o mapa da estratégia já deixou a empresa. Os que ocupam os seus lugares agora nunca mergulharam no esforço de desenhar um mapa da estratégia. Por isso, esqueceram-no e esconderam-no. Agora só têm um BSC da 1ª geração.

Entretanto, o mundo mudou. E os erros de Zapatero continuam por aprender...

"Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself."(fonte)

Trecho retirado de "Here’s Why Strategy Chiefs Succeed or Fail"

"Strategy is only strategic when it allows you to choose what not to do"

"Strategy is only strategic when it allows you to choose what not to do. Focus is only focused if it helps you do less or say no more often.
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Put a check next to the points below that you agree with. The more checks, the greater your focus.

• You can count on one hand the most critical things you must deliver this year. [Moi ici: Um bom desafio para quem está agora a iniciar o ano. Têm algum objectivo crítico para este ano? Ou será que têm demasiados?]

• If I were to ask you and your boss your top three priorities, you’d both give the same answer. [Moi ici: Outro bom desafio... fez-me recordar a carta que Zander pede aos alunos no início do ano. Quantas chefias têm, ou arranjam, tempo para se sentar com os seus subordinados directos para definirem objectivos?]

• You and each of your direct reports agree on their top three priorities.  

• You made a deliberate, considered decision in the past month to stop doing something. [Moi ici: Como é o algoritmo? Encontra um desperdício, remove-o, divulga. Repete todos os dias.]  

• You reviewed and refocused your priorities in the past month.  

• You regularly block time on your calendar to create space to work on your top priorities.   

• You regularly chose to stop, or not to start or sponsor, work that is under-resourced.  

• You regularly chose to stop, or not to start or sponsor, work that is not aligned with the company strategies." [Moi ici: Ai que ataque de cinismo... sou Diógenes]

Como não recordar:

"A gestão de topo deve assegurar-se que todos os trabalhadores conhecem os Compromissos Estratégicos e compreendam como podem contribuir, a partir do seu posto de trabalho, para a sua execução. Este ponto é tão importante que a ISO 9001 tem uma cláusula só sobre ele (7.3 Consciencialização).
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A gestão de topo deve assegurar-se que todos os trabalhadores sabem quais são os objectivos da empresa para os quais podem contribuir com o seu trabalho e, sabem qual sua a evolução."

Trecho de "Pacing for Growth: Why Intelligent Restraint Drives Long-term Success" de Alison Eyring.

Uma pena!

Uma pena!

Uma pena o pouco cuidado com a escolha deste título "Fugiu da “Zara-dependência” e entrou em PER(da)".

Recordo uma frase que ouvi há muitos anos a minha mãe utilizar: "currículo escondido". O título escolhido sublinha que o essencial é o respeitinho pela Zara.

Há pessoas que julgam que se os humanos tomarem decisões racionais e bem estudadas, vão sempre tomar as melhores decisões e, se algum dia baterem contra uma parede será porque decidiram mal, estudaram mal ou simplesmente foram preguiçosos ou, no caso dos empresários, sacaram dinheiro. E julgam mal:

"Lesson #2: Rational choice, chosing a dominant strategy, can lead to outcomes that suck"

Prefiro o título do eco.pt "Alemã Esprit deixa têxtil portuguesa pendurada", muito mais fiel ao que se passou na realidade.

Respeitar é ser transparente

Esta semana tive (do verbo ter) um almoço com uma conversa tão boa, tão boa, que decidimos procurar repetir o encontro todos os meses, simplesmente para oxigenar a mente.

Na sequência da conversa trocamos algumas referências de livros. Uma das referências que recebi e que me deixou super curioso foi "Black Box Thinking: The Surprising Truth About Success" de Matthew Syed.

Sei que ando a ler dois livros em simultâneo, mas não resisti a espreitar:

"But what is important for our purposes is not the similarity between the two accidents; it is the difference in response. We have already seen that in health care, the culture is one of evasion. Accidents are described as "one-offs" or "one of those things." Doctors say: "We did the best we could." This is the most common response to failure in the world today. [Moi ici: Como não recordar "O Erro em Medicina" e o mais recente horror do presidente Marcelo - "Foi tudo muito rápido. Nestas situações, é tudo aleatório. Há pessoas que acabam por ter sorte e outras que não tem" - Como se se tratasse de uma roleta russa]
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In aviation, things are radically different: learning from failure is hardwired into the system. All airplanes must carry two black boxes, one of which records instructions sent to all on-board electronic systems. The other is a cockpit voice recorder, enabling investigators to get into the minds of the pilots in the moments leading up to an accident. Instead of concealing failure, or skirting around it, aviation has a system where failure is data rich.[Moi ici: Este trecho deixou-me knock-out com aquele "where failure is data rich". Quantas vezes nas empresas, perante uma falha, só nos deparamos com "perhaps", "será que" e "e se"]
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In the event of an accident, investigators, who are independent of the airlines, the pilots' union, and the regulators, are given full rein to explore the wreckage and to interrogate all other evidence. Mistakes are not stigmatized, but regarded as learning opportunities. The interested parties are given every reason to cooperate, since the evidence compiled by the accident investigation branch is inadmissible in court proceedings. This increases the likelihood of full disclosure.
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In the aftermath of the investigation the report is made available to everyone. Airlines have a legal responsibility to implement the recommendations. Every pilot in the world has free access to the data. This practice enables everyone—rather than just a single crew, or a single airline, or a single nation—to learn from the mistake. This turbocharges the power of learning. As Eleanor Roosevelt put it: "Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself."
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And it is not just accidents that drive learning; so, too, do "small" errors. When pilots experience a near miss with another aircraft, or have been flying at the wrong altitude, they file a report. Providing that it is submitted within ten days, pilots enjoy immunity. Many planes are also fitted with data systems that automatically send reports when parameters have been exceeded. Once again, these reports are de-identified by the time they proceed through the report sequence.!
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Aviation, then, takes failure seriously. Any data that might demonstrate that procedures are defective, or that the design of the cockpit is inadequate, or that the pilots haven't been trained properly, is carefully extracted. These are used to lock the industry onto a safer path. And individuals are not intimidated about admitting to errors because they recognize their value." 

Isto é tão urgente mas tão urgente.

Claro que olhamos para isto e gostaríamos de o replicar para uma e outra e mais outra PME, mas tal seria errado. O caminho é procurar um ponto que possa servir de alicerce e criar dia após dia o mecanismo mais adequado a cada uma. No entanto, o maior problema é perceber que não há acidentes, tudo o que acontece é um produto perfeitamente normal do sistema que temos.

O título é uma das frases que apontei enquanto que decorria a conversa