Diferentes propostas de valor requerem diferentes culturas organizacionais e pessoas com diferentes características de personalidade.
.
Se a sua empresa aposta na inovação, na diferenciação pela novidade, pela surpresa, pelo desempenho superior, então, é uma empresa que tem de caminhar por terrenos novos, que tem de abrir estradas e caminhos, que tem de ir à frente, que tem de testar novidades e arriscar.
.
Nesse caso faz todo o sentido ler e emular estas práticas tão bem descritas por Robert Sutton em "Extraordinary Contempt and Defiance Beyond the Normal Call of Engineering Duty"
.
Pero todavia, se a sua empresa aposta na competição pelo preço mais baixo... cuidado com as prima donnas, el@s vão, de boa-fé, querer introduzir alterações que vão perturbar a eficiência dos processos. Imagine um empregado criativo na cozinha de um MacDonald's!
.
Pero todavia, se a sua empresa aposta na competição pelo serviço feito à medida ... cuidado com as prima donnas, el@s vão, de boa-fé, esquecer que as ideias dos clientes são mais importantes que as suas próprias ideias e vão querer introduzir novidades não desejadas.
.
quarta-feira, dezembro 17, 2008
Este é o tempo para repensar a estratégia (parte I)
Na passada segunda-feira, num comentário ao postal Como eu olho para a crise o meu amigo Aranha comentou:
.
“Eu hoje em dia sinto-me esmagado! Cansado do tema Crise...”
.
Por que escrevo e procuro o máximo de informação sobre a Crise?
.
Não, não é para chorar!!!
Não, não é por masoquismo!!!
.
Não, não é para ganhar pontos políticos!!! (Prisioneiros da sua natueza... sem alternativa para escapar?)
.
Não, não é para …
.
É para melhor compreender a realidade que me rodeia, o que se passou, o que se está a passar e as janelas de possibilidades para o que poderá se passar no futuro.
.
É para melhor identificar as forças motrizes em jogo e melhor articular as relações de causa-efeito entre elas.
.
É para melhor caracterizar o terreno onde as organizações com que trabalho vão ter de actuar.
.
Podemos não ter poder para mudar o oceano e as correntes onde as organizações operam, mas podemos tentar percebê-los um pouco menos mal para nos situar-mos e melhor conceptualizar-mos as opções disponíveis.
.
Se procuro retratar e sentir os fluxos da realidade, e a energia em jogo nas regiões de subducção das placas tectónicas do mercado, não é para me queixar ou melhor aconselhar as organizações a pedirem subsídios e apoios (essa é uma guerra onde não entro). O segundo homem da minha vida profissional, Stephen Covey (o primeiro foi Peter Drucker) chama a atenção no seu livro, "The seven habits of highly effective people", para:
.
"It means more than merely taking initiative. It means that as human beings, we are responsible for our own lives. Our behavior is a function of our decisions, not our conditions."
.
"Highly proactive people recognize that responsibility. They do not blame circumstances, conditions, or conditioning for their behavior. Their behavior is a product of their own conscious choice, based on values, rather than a product of their conditions, based on feeling.
.
Because we are, by nature, proactive, if our lives are a function of conditioning and conditions, it is because we have, by conscious decision or by default, chosen to empower those things to control us.
.
In making such a choice, we become reactive."
(...)
"It's not what happens to us, but our response to what happens to us that hurt us." (Isto é tão verdadeiro!!!)
(...)
"Many people wait for something to happen or someone to take care of them. But people who end up with the good jobs are the proactive ones who are solutions to problems, not problems themselves, who seize the initiative to do whatever is necessary, consistent with correct principles, to get the job done."
.
Percepcionando a realidade, percepcionando as mudanças em curso, chega-se a uma situação onde se torna imperativa a frieza da análise à la Greenwald e Kahn: Faz sentido continuar a apostar num negócio?
.
O governo e as associações empresariais pressionam os bancos para que emprestem dinheiro às empresas "Teixeira dos Santos: ”É preciso pressionar os bancos para que façam chegar o dinheiro às empresas”" (que comentei aqui: Comunicamos por sombras através de biombos)
.
No entanto, as mudanças em curso muito cedo desenharam um cenário muito mais exigente para as empresas no futuro, ainda antes da derrocada na procura que ocorreu no último mês, com o aumento da exigência de rentabilidade do negócio:
.
“Pelo contrário, se o crédito se tornar mais escasso e com taxas de juro superiores (cuidado com os spreads), as empresas terão de apostar em estratégias com um maior grau de pureza, risco e taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas, mas taxas de rentabilidade mais atractivas.” que avancei aqui: Que futuro? e esquematizei assim:
O governo e as associações empresariais querem que os bancos emprestem dinheiro às empresas!
Para que serve um banco?
O dinheiro não é do banco, é dos seus depositantes e investidores. A função do banco é salvaguardar os interesses dos donos do dinheiro.
.
Que garantias têm os bancos de que as empresas vão aplicar bem o dinheiro?
.
E as empresas vão aplicar o dinheiro onde? A fazer o quê?
.
Que reflexão estratégica fizeram?
.
Se o dinheiro for para suster a respiração e manter tudo como está quase de certeza que vai ser mal aplicado. Para evitar esse desperdício há que repensar o futuro das empresas e das suas estratégias nestes tempos turbulentos e no “day after”.
.
Quando há um terramoto de grande magnitude comparam-se fotografias do aspecto de construções, de bairros, de estradas e pontes antes e depois do acontecimento.
.
Nós estamos a viver um desses terramotos só que em slow-motion, não dura apenas os 40-70 segundos da praxe.
.
Assim, antes que o futuro fique desenhado convém aproveitar o tempo para rever a estratégia, para rever o posicionamento de uma empresa e agir.
.
Do livro "Confronting Reality - Doing what matters to get things right" de Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan relembro:
.
“To confront reality is to recognize the world as it is, not as you wish it to be, and have the courage to do what must be done, not what you’d like to do.”
.
"The most widespread unrealistic behavior when the game changes drastically is to violate the First Law of Holes (when you're in one, stop digging). People redouble their efforts to do waht they know best. They often achieve heroic results - which are, alas, almost as often pointless, because they fail to confront the new realities.”
.
Se o dinheiro dos bancos chegar às empresas quanto dele não será para cavar ainda mais o buraco?
.
Este é o tempo para repensar o futuro e a estratégia. Sem isso emprestar dinheiro é pôr dinheiro sobre os problemas e não sobre as oportunidades.
.
Este é o tempo de voltar ao fundamental (back to the basics) e o fundamental foi capturado por Peter Drucker no livro “Managing in Turbulent Times. Para tempos turbulentos propunha:
.
“The manager will have to look at her task and ask, “What must I do to be prepared for danger, for opportunities, and above all for change?”
.
First, this is a time to make sure that your organization is lean and can move fast. So this is a time when one systematically abandons and sloughs off unjustifiable products and activities—and sees to it that the really important tasks are adequately supported.”
…
"In turbulent times, the first task of management is to make sure of the institution’s capacity for survival, to make sure of its structural strengths, of its capacity to survive a blow, to adapt to sudden change, and to avail itself of new opportunities."
.
“The greatest and most dangerous turbulence today results from the collision between the delusions of the decision makers—whether in governments, in the top managements of businesses, or in union leadership—and the realities.
.
But a time of turbulence is also one of great opportunity for those who can understand, accept, and exploit the new realities. One constant theme is, therefore, the need for the decision maker in the individual enterprise to face up to reality and resist the temptation of what “everybody knows,” the temptations of the certainties of yesterday, which are about to become the deleterious superstitions of tomorrow. To manage in turbulent times, therefore, means to face up to the new realities. It means starting with the question: “What is the world really like?” rather than with the assertions and assumptions that made sense only a few years ago.”
.
Continua brevemente.
.
“Eu hoje em dia sinto-me esmagado! Cansado do tema Crise...”
.
Por que escrevo e procuro o máximo de informação sobre a Crise?
.
Não, não é para chorar!!!
Não, não é por masoquismo!!!.
Não, não é para ganhar pontos políticos!!! (Prisioneiros da sua natueza... sem alternativa para escapar?)
.
Não, não é para …
.
É para melhor compreender a realidade que me rodeia, o que se passou, o que se está a passar e as janelas de possibilidades para o que poderá se passar no futuro.
.
É para melhor identificar as forças motrizes em jogo e melhor articular as relações de causa-efeito entre elas.
.
É para melhor caracterizar o terreno onde as organizações com que trabalho vão ter de actuar.
.
Podemos não ter poder para mudar o oceano e as correntes onde as organizações operam, mas podemos tentar percebê-los um pouco menos mal para nos situar-mos e melhor conceptualizar-mos as opções disponíveis.
.
Se procuro retratar e sentir os fluxos da realidade, e a energia em jogo nas regiões de subducção das placas tectónicas do mercado, não é para me queixar ou melhor aconselhar as organizações a pedirem subsídios e apoios (essa é uma guerra onde não entro). O segundo homem da minha vida profissional, Stephen Covey (o primeiro foi Peter Drucker) chama a atenção no seu livro, "The seven habits of highly effective people", para:
.
"It means more than merely taking initiative. It means that as human beings, we are responsible for our own lives. Our behavior is a function of our decisions, not our conditions."
.
"Highly proactive people recognize that responsibility. They do not blame circumstances, conditions, or conditioning for their behavior. Their behavior is a product of their own conscious choice, based on values, rather than a product of their conditions, based on feeling.
.
Because we are, by nature, proactive, if our lives are a function of conditioning and conditions, it is because we have, by conscious decision or by default, chosen to empower those things to control us.
.
In making such a choice, we become reactive."
(...)
"It's not what happens to us, but our response to what happens to us that hurt us." (Isto é tão verdadeiro!!!)
(...)
"Many people wait for something to happen or someone to take care of them. But people who end up with the good jobs are the proactive ones who are solutions to problems, not problems themselves, who seize the initiative to do whatever is necessary, consistent with correct principles, to get the job done."
.
Percepcionando a realidade, percepcionando as mudanças em curso, chega-se a uma situação onde se torna imperativa a frieza da análise à la Greenwald e Kahn: Faz sentido continuar a apostar num negócio?
.
O governo e as associações empresariais pressionam os bancos para que emprestem dinheiro às empresas "Teixeira dos Santos: ”É preciso pressionar os bancos para que façam chegar o dinheiro às empresas”" (que comentei aqui: Comunicamos por sombras através de biombos)
.
No entanto, as mudanças em curso muito cedo desenharam um cenário muito mais exigente para as empresas no futuro, ainda antes da derrocada na procura que ocorreu no último mês, com o aumento da exigência de rentabilidade do negócio:
.
“Pelo contrário, se o crédito se tornar mais escasso e com taxas de juro superiores (cuidado com os spreads), as empresas terão de apostar em estratégias com um maior grau de pureza, risco e taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas, mas taxas de rentabilidade mais atractivas.” que avancei aqui: Que futuro? e esquematizei assim:
O governo e as associações empresariais querem que os bancos emprestem dinheiro às empresas!Para que serve um banco?
O dinheiro não é do banco, é dos seus depositantes e investidores. A função do banco é salvaguardar os interesses dos donos do dinheiro.
.
Que garantias têm os bancos de que as empresas vão aplicar bem o dinheiro?
.
E as empresas vão aplicar o dinheiro onde? A fazer o quê?
.
Que reflexão estratégica fizeram?
.
Se o dinheiro for para suster a respiração e manter tudo como está quase de certeza que vai ser mal aplicado. Para evitar esse desperdício há que repensar o futuro das empresas e das suas estratégias nestes tempos turbulentos e no “day after”.
.
Quando há um terramoto de grande magnitude comparam-se fotografias do aspecto de construções, de bairros, de estradas e pontes antes e depois do acontecimento.
.
Nós estamos a viver um desses terramotos só que em slow-motion, não dura apenas os 40-70 segundos da praxe.
.
Assim, antes que o futuro fique desenhado convém aproveitar o tempo para rever a estratégia, para rever o posicionamento de uma empresa e agir.
.
Do livro "Confronting Reality - Doing what matters to get things right" de Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan relembro:
.
“To confront reality is to recognize the world as it is, not as you wish it to be, and have the courage to do what must be done, not what you’d like to do.”
.
"The most widespread unrealistic behavior when the game changes drastically is to violate the First Law of Holes (when you're in one, stop digging). People redouble their efforts to do waht they know best. They often achieve heroic results - which are, alas, almost as often pointless, because they fail to confront the new realities.”
.
Se o dinheiro dos bancos chegar às empresas quanto dele não será para cavar ainda mais o buraco?
.
Este é o tempo para repensar o futuro e a estratégia. Sem isso emprestar dinheiro é pôr dinheiro sobre os problemas e não sobre as oportunidades.
.
Este é o tempo de voltar ao fundamental (back to the basics) e o fundamental foi capturado por Peter Drucker no livro “Managing in Turbulent Times. Para tempos turbulentos propunha:
.
“The manager will have to look at her task and ask, “What must I do to be prepared for danger, for opportunities, and above all for change?”
.
First, this is a time to make sure that your organization is lean and can move fast. So this is a time when one systematically abandons and sloughs off unjustifiable products and activities—and sees to it that the really important tasks are adequately supported.”
…
"In turbulent times, the first task of management is to make sure of the institution’s capacity for survival, to make sure of its structural strengths, of its capacity to survive a blow, to adapt to sudden change, and to avail itself of new opportunities."
.
“The greatest and most dangerous turbulence today results from the collision between the delusions of the decision makers—whether in governments, in the top managements of businesses, or in union leadership—and the realities.
.
But a time of turbulence is also one of great opportunity for those who can understand, accept, and exploit the new realities. One constant theme is, therefore, the need for the decision maker in the individual enterprise to face up to reality and resist the temptation of what “everybody knows,” the temptations of the certainties of yesterday, which are about to become the deleterious superstitions of tomorrow. To manage in turbulent times, therefore, means to face up to the new realities. It means starting with the question: “What is the world really like?” rather than with the assertions and assumptions that made sense only a few years ago.”
.
Continua brevemente.
terça-feira, dezembro 16, 2008
O canário grego
Antes de ler este postal "Why We All Need To Keep A Watchful Eye On What Is Happening In Greece" convém arranjar um tempo para o ler com clama e para reflectir no seu conteúdo.
.
Como já confessei neste blogue um bom 'soundbyte' é um isco enrolado no anzol a que raramente resisto, e o Joaquim do Portugal Contemporâneo conseguiu um com o título "vai ser bonita a festa, pá"... mas voltemos ao artigo assinado por Edwar Hugh no Europe EconoMonitor.
.
"The above quited paragraph from the IMF is a very good example of what used to be the orthodox wisdom about Greece's economic imbalances - that given EMU membership the availability of external financing should not be a concern, and that the Greek economy is effectively too small for it to constitute a menace to the stability of the eurozone itself, even on a worst case scenario. Well, if we look at the growing yield spreads you can see in the chart above (please click for better viewing) the first premiss seems to be in real danger of falling, EMU membership no longer gives an automatic guarantee of oncost-free external financing, and if you look at the names of the other countries lining up in the queue behind Greece - Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular - you can begin to see the outline of a contagion mechanism whereby the coming to reality of the worst case Greek scenario might just extend itself into a problem of sufficient magnitude to transmit Greek vulnerabilities across and into the entire euro area. No one is too small to be a problem when it comes to financial crises, ..."
.
"In addition to the evident weaknesses which have now come to light in the Greek (pode sempre optar-se por trocar o nome do país por outro ...) financial system, the other worrying development we are seeing in Greece at the present time - apart that is from the largescale social conflict that has been hitting the headlines in recent weeks - is the movement in what is know as the yield spreads.
...
What this means is Greek government bonds are sold cheaper (ie the government receives less for them) than their German counterparts, but their yields are higher and this is because external investors increasingly see Greece as a less creditworthy country. If Greece itself was fully self sufficient in finance (like say Japan is) then this wouldn't present a problem for bond yields (as we can see in the case of an equally indebted Japanese govenment) since domestic investors could be relied on to buy up the bonds (in a process known as "home bias"), but Greece is not self sufficient, and has to depend on external finance to fund a current account deficit of around 15% of GDP (12% para o nosso país). Thus the opening up in these spreads over the last two months most now constitute the biggest headache those responsible for managing European Monetary Union have had to face since the creation of the eurozone, since according to the well know neo-classical theory of contingent convergence they should be disappearing, and not increasing.
...
These widening spreads mean more expensive bond auctions for the Greek government, and this is just where the trouble comes, since Greece has a very hefty accumulated debt to continually refinance (around 90% GDP), and it is partly because investors don't see how a government with a damaged banking system and an economy which may soon start shrinking as the recession bites can shoulder the weight of this debt, especially given the evident difficulty faced by the Greek government in enforcing measures to reduce it (claro, aposto que por lá também há direitos adquiridos), that the widening is occuring."
...
"Basically, if I could sum all this up in a nutshell I would ask, just why are we seeing rioting out on the streets of Greece, and calm placidity down there on the Spanish highway. Well, apart from the evident differences in national cultures (which I am certainly not in any way equipped to get into) I would say there is one single fact that marks out the difference: Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero can still sign any cheque he wants to to try to fend off the worst of the Spanish crisis, while Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis no longer can. Words of warnings left unheard are now coming home to roost and the Greek government's room for fiscal manoeuvre is very very limited indeed at this point. Undoubtedly time will also run out on the Spanish Prime Minister too if we continue on the present course but my point here is that we should be aware that events in Greece, depending on how badly things go, or how quickly they go bad, could end up cutting the available time for Spain (e outros, vocês sabem de quem estou a falar...) even further, via a nasty little process which is frequently known to go to work during financial crises: regional contagion."
.
"The core of the problem we have before us lies in the Greek twin deficit - Greece has a very large and continuing current account defcit (around 15% of GDP) (12% para Portugal) and a very large accumulated government debt (around 90% of GDP). (mais de 60% para Portugal)"
.
"Part of the reason for the recent surge in Greek external debt has been a rapid rise in domestic investment which was not matched by a similar increase in national saving (esta ideia de que o dinheiro cresce nas árvores...) - in fact household savings have been more or less stagnant - and this has meant that the gap between national saving and investment has been steadily growing since 2001" (um filme que também passou por cá e vai continuar a passar no próximo ano e a agravar-se).
,
"To a large extent the decline in household saving and the increased demand for housing as a private investment vehicle can be explained by the increased access to and demand for credit in the context of financial liberalization and the lower interest rates which have followed from Greece's euro participation (same for us here in the West Coast). Undoubtedly during the years in which Greece "enjoyed" negative real interest rates, it seem a much more attractive proposition to buy a piece of property whose price it was imagined would "never fall" rather then watch savings steadily lose their value in time deposits which were effectively being ravaged by inflation attrition. On the other hand it is worth bearing in mind that gross Greek household debt - at a little over 40% of GDP - never reached the heady levels attained in Spain of around 90% of GDP."
.
"In contrast, the Greek corporate sector has been running a net savings surplus throughout the entire period (and this of course is another big difference from Spain) (e de nós), with rising saving repeatedly exceeding investment. This notable increase in corporate saving has largely been the result of the strong profitability in the shipping and financial sectors, and it is this profitability which is now, suddenly, under threat in the current downturn.
.
Greek government debt, on the other hand is somewhere in the region of 90% of GDP, while the deficit is currently somewhere around 3% of GDP, but none of us (including the European statistics agency Eurostat or the EU Commission) can really be too sure of all this, since the goalposts seem to be being constantly moved in more than the football stadia down in Greece, and while it would be an exaggeration to say the data changes on a weekly basis, sometimes it seems we are not so far away from that point."
.
"And so it went on, until it simply couldn't go on any more, which is where we are now, and why Prime Minister Karamanlis cannot simply keep signing the cheques to buy social peace (Se houver um Medina Carreira grego há-de estar a repetir "I told you!) and satve off the downturn, although it is quite clear that this evident reality still hasn't been gotten across to Greece's two largest union federations who last week held a nationwide general strike to protest a set of government's remedial policies which, if they are anything, are already too little and too late."
.
"Given the difficulties Greek banks are having in raising finance in the global financial and capital markets, the ensuing tightening credit conditions are bound to lead to a further slowdown in private consumption." (wait and you will see)
.
.
Como já confessei neste blogue um bom 'soundbyte' é um isco enrolado no anzol a que raramente resisto, e o Joaquim do Portugal Contemporâneo conseguiu um com o título "vai ser bonita a festa, pá"... mas voltemos ao artigo assinado por Edwar Hugh no Europe EconoMonitor.
.
"The above quited paragraph from the IMF is a very good example of what used to be the orthodox wisdom about Greece's economic imbalances - that given EMU membership the availability of external financing should not be a concern, and that the Greek economy is effectively too small for it to constitute a menace to the stability of the eurozone itself, even on a worst case scenario. Well, if we look at the growing yield spreads you can see in the chart above (please click for better viewing) the first premiss seems to be in real danger of falling, EMU membership no longer gives an automatic guarantee of oncost-free external financing, and if you look at the names of the other countries lining up in the queue behind Greece - Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular - you can begin to see the outline of a contagion mechanism whereby the coming to reality of the worst case Greek scenario might just extend itself into a problem of sufficient magnitude to transmit Greek vulnerabilities across and into the entire euro area. No one is too small to be a problem when it comes to financial crises, ..."
.
"In addition to the evident weaknesses which have now come to light in the Greek (pode sempre optar-se por trocar o nome do país por outro ...) financial system, the other worrying development we are seeing in Greece at the present time - apart that is from the largescale social conflict that has been hitting the headlines in recent weeks - is the movement in what is know as the yield spreads.
...
What this means is Greek government bonds are sold cheaper (ie the government receives less for them) than their German counterparts, but their yields are higher and this is because external investors increasingly see Greece as a less creditworthy country. If Greece itself was fully self sufficient in finance (like say Japan is) then this wouldn't present a problem for bond yields (as we can see in the case of an equally indebted Japanese govenment) since domestic investors could be relied on to buy up the bonds (in a process known as "home bias"), but Greece is not self sufficient, and has to depend on external finance to fund a current account deficit of around 15% of GDP (12% para o nosso país). Thus the opening up in these spreads over the last two months most now constitute the biggest headache those responsible for managing European Monetary Union have had to face since the creation of the eurozone, since according to the well know neo-classical theory of contingent convergence they should be disappearing, and not increasing.
...
These widening spreads mean more expensive bond auctions for the Greek government, and this is just where the trouble comes, since Greece has a very hefty accumulated debt to continually refinance (around 90% GDP), and it is partly because investors don't see how a government with a damaged banking system and an economy which may soon start shrinking as the recession bites can shoulder the weight of this debt, especially given the evident difficulty faced by the Greek government in enforcing measures to reduce it (claro, aposto que por lá também há direitos adquiridos), that the widening is occuring."
...
"Basically, if I could sum all this up in a nutshell I would ask, just why are we seeing rioting out on the streets of Greece, and calm placidity down there on the Spanish highway. Well, apart from the evident differences in national cultures (which I am certainly not in any way equipped to get into) I would say there is one single fact that marks out the difference: Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero can still sign any cheque he wants to to try to fend off the worst of the Spanish crisis, while Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis no longer can. Words of warnings left unheard are now coming home to roost and the Greek government's room for fiscal manoeuvre is very very limited indeed at this point. Undoubtedly time will also run out on the Spanish Prime Minister too if we continue on the present course but my point here is that we should be aware that events in Greece, depending on how badly things go, or how quickly they go bad, could end up cutting the available time for Spain (e outros, vocês sabem de quem estou a falar...) even further, via a nasty little process which is frequently known to go to work during financial crises: regional contagion."
.
"The core of the problem we have before us lies in the Greek twin deficit - Greece has a very large and continuing current account defcit (around 15% of GDP) (12% para Portugal) and a very large accumulated government debt (around 90% of GDP). (mais de 60% para Portugal)"
.
"Part of the reason for the recent surge in Greek external debt has been a rapid rise in domestic investment which was not matched by a similar increase in national saving (esta ideia de que o dinheiro cresce nas árvores...) - in fact household savings have been more or less stagnant - and this has meant that the gap between national saving and investment has been steadily growing since 2001" (um filme que também passou por cá e vai continuar a passar no próximo ano e a agravar-se).
,
"To a large extent the decline in household saving and the increased demand for housing as a private investment vehicle can be explained by the increased access to and demand for credit in the context of financial liberalization and the lower interest rates which have followed from Greece's euro participation (same for us here in the West Coast). Undoubtedly during the years in which Greece "enjoyed" negative real interest rates, it seem a much more attractive proposition to buy a piece of property whose price it was imagined would "never fall" rather then watch savings steadily lose their value in time deposits which were effectively being ravaged by inflation attrition. On the other hand it is worth bearing in mind that gross Greek household debt - at a little over 40% of GDP - never reached the heady levels attained in Spain of around 90% of GDP."
.
"In contrast, the Greek corporate sector has been running a net savings surplus throughout the entire period (and this of course is another big difference from Spain) (e de nós), with rising saving repeatedly exceeding investment. This notable increase in corporate saving has largely been the result of the strong profitability in the shipping and financial sectors, and it is this profitability which is now, suddenly, under threat in the current downturn.
.
Greek government debt, on the other hand is somewhere in the region of 90% of GDP, while the deficit is currently somewhere around 3% of GDP, but none of us (including the European statistics agency Eurostat or the EU Commission) can really be too sure of all this, since the goalposts seem to be being constantly moved in more than the football stadia down in Greece, and while it would be an exaggeration to say the data changes on a weekly basis, sometimes it seems we are not so far away from that point."
.
"And so it went on, until it simply couldn't go on any more, which is where we are now, and why Prime Minister Karamanlis cannot simply keep signing the cheques to buy social peace (Se houver um Medina Carreira grego há-de estar a repetir "I told you!) and satve off the downturn, although it is quite clear that this evident reality still hasn't been gotten across to Greece's two largest union federations who last week held a nationwide general strike to protest a set of government's remedial policies which, if they are anything, are already too little and too late."
.
"Given the difficulties Greek banks are having in raising finance in the global financial and capital markets, the ensuing tightening credit conditions are bound to lead to a further slowdown in private consumption." (wait and you will see)
.
Há uma diferença...
João Miranda explica de forma clara e pedagógica, ou direi antes andragógica, o caso Madoff Escândalo Madoff explicado aos portugueses.
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Esquece-se é de uma pequena grande diferença; é que no caso Madoff a adesão é voluntária, no caso da Segurança Social a adesão é obrigatória.
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Esquece-se é de uma pequena grande diferença; é que no caso Madoff a adesão é voluntária, no caso da Segurança Social a adesão é obrigatória.
A importância de um modelo
Quando me pedem a opinião sobre ideias para oportunidades de negócio procuro sempre descortinar qual é a máquina para ganhar dinheiro e se a mesma tem pernas para andar, ou seja ser sustentável, ser auto-reprodutora.
Algo que permita chegar a 
Se isto é uma condição básica para investir num negócio ... não faria sentido pensar no mesmo para um qualquer plano governamental?
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Por exemplo:
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como é que pessoas mais qualificadas conseguem arranjar emprego?
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como é que o mais recente plano anti-crise nos vai tirar do buraco?
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Ou seja, antes de gastar um euro que seja, com papel e um lápis procurar testar a razoabilidade do que se pretende fazer.
Solidariedade?
Como copiamos aqui:
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"Solidarity means, if it means anything, that everyone shoulders some part of the burden in difficult times, and that people behave responsibily with their national resources and heritage, and accepting that when there is no money to pay for something, then there simply is no money to pay for it."
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Quanto é que o PIB cresceu em 2007? Quanto é que o PIB cresceu em 2008? Quanto é que o PIB vai crescer em 2009?
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Quanto é que vai aumentar a facturação das PME's no próximo ano de 2009?
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Now, for the stunner:
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"As grandes universidades como o Porto, Coimbra, Lisboa e a Técnica, tiveram um crescimento de 2%, que é completamente insuficiente para o próximo ano. O que me preocupa"
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Trech retirado de “Escolas entram todas no vermelho em 2009” assinado por Madalena Queirós no Diário Económico.
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Não há aqui gente abstraída, alienada da realidade?
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Knock!Knock! Helloooooooo!!!
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"Solidarity means, if it means anything, that everyone shoulders some part of the burden in difficult times, and that people behave responsibily with their national resources and heritage, and accepting that when there is no money to pay for something, then there simply is no money to pay for it."
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Quanto é que o PIB cresceu em 2007? Quanto é que o PIB cresceu em 2008? Quanto é que o PIB vai crescer em 2009?
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Quanto é que vai aumentar a facturação das PME's no próximo ano de 2009?
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Now, for the stunner:
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"As grandes universidades como o Porto, Coimbra, Lisboa e a Técnica, tiveram um crescimento de 2%, que é completamente insuficiente para o próximo ano. O que me preocupa"
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Trech retirado de “Escolas entram todas no vermelho em 2009” assinado por Madalena Queirós no Diário Económico.
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Não há aqui gente abstraída, alienada da realidade?
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Knock!Knock! Helloooooooo!!!
"Are We A Bunch Of Hypocrites In Southern Europe?
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One question I often ask myself when speaking with Spanish government employees who timidly ask me the predictable "crisis, what crisis? (BTW será sempre um dos meus dois albuns preferidos, together with The Allan Parson's Project... God I'm getting old!!!) Can't you see, all the bars are still full!" question is just what is meant by that much used and little understood word "solidarity". We are proud to note down here in Southern Europe that we have a complex set of collective institutions which are driven by objectives of "social solidarity", not like those nasty little anglo saxon types (you know, the "neo-liberals") who live up north. But why is it, I ask myself, that I don't here this "crisis, what crisis" stuff from those working in the private sector, who spend the best part of the day at the present time looking across the factory or office floor at their colleagues and asking themselves who it is who will find themself going out of the door this week?
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Solidarity means, if it means anything, that everyone shoulders some part of the burden in difficult times, and that people behave responsibily with their national resources and heritage, and accepting that when there is no money to pay for something, then there simply is no money to pay for it. If you find yourself having to depend on the stringent demands of others from outside your country, then the best thing you can do is to get your country out of the debt which is the cause of the problem, and then you can freely decide your own future for yourself. But while I can well understand how a relatively poor country like Ecuador gets itself into such a dependence-based mess, I am at a loss to understand how comparatively rich countries like Spain, Greece and Portugal have allowed things to come to the pass they have now come to, or how their citizens have let them get to the point they are at now.
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Trecho roubado a Edward Hugh "Why We All Need To Keep A Watchful Eye On What Is Happening In Greece"
One question I often ask myself when speaking with Spanish government employees who timidly ask me the predictable "crisis, what crisis? (BTW será sempre um dos meus dois albuns preferidos, together with The Allan Parson's Project... God I'm getting old!!!) Can't you see, all the bars are still full!" question is just what is meant by that much used and little understood word "solidarity". We are proud to note down here in Southern Europe that we have a complex set of collective institutions which are driven by objectives of "social solidarity", not like those nasty little anglo saxon types (you know, the "neo-liberals") who live up north. But why is it, I ask myself, that I don't here this "crisis, what crisis" stuff from those working in the private sector, who spend the best part of the day at the present time looking across the factory or office floor at their colleagues and asking themselves who it is who will find themself going out of the door this week?
.
Solidarity means, if it means anything, that everyone shoulders some part of the burden in difficult times, and that people behave responsibily with their national resources and heritage, and accepting that when there is no money to pay for something, then there simply is no money to pay for it. If you find yourself having to depend on the stringent demands of others from outside your country, then the best thing you can do is to get your country out of the debt which is the cause of the problem, and then you can freely decide your own future for yourself. But while I can well understand how a relatively poor country like Ecuador gets itself into such a dependence-based mess, I am at a loss to understand how comparatively rich countries like Spain, Greece and Portugal have allowed things to come to the pass they have now come to, or how their citizens have let them get to the point they are at now.
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Trecho roubado a Edward Hugh "Why We All Need To Keep A Watchful Eye On What Is Happening In Greece"
segunda-feira, dezembro 15, 2008
Acerca da gestão de expectativas
"While the IMF seem to be more aware of the scale of the problem than the Spanish government currently are, they do seem to be putting all of the emphasis for recovery on some much needed labour market reforms, but personally I don't think even these are playing in the right ball park, we need a big picture "breakout" escape plan, to cut loose from the pincers of cash drought, corporate bankruptcy, construction dependency, large scale contraction and price deflation. (Também acredito que quem confia nas reformas laborais só confia num mito e nunca fez as contas que interessam) It's a big mess, and will need an equally bold and ambitious plan to get to grips with it."
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Tenho referido muitas vezes esta história da gestão de expectativas: Outra vez a gestão das expectativas ; Gestão de expectativas (parte III) ; Gestão de expectativas (parte II); Gestão de expectativas.
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"One point which is obvious at this stage is that Spanish government forecasting - which has currently built a 1% expansion into the 2009 budget - is getting ever more out of line with the economic dynamic. Really this is the first thing which has to change. Spain urgently needs someone leading the country who is able to turn the page, put some realistic numbers on the table, and try to work to meet objectives, instead of simply failing to achieve them time after time. (Confesso que pensei nisto na véspera das eleições em Espanha, o PSOE devia ter, eu sei que era impossível, apresentado outro candidato a primeiro-ministro, não por causa das ideias de Zapatero, mas porque esta legislatura seria diferente da anterior, seiam precisas outras ideias, outras posturas, seria preciso romper com alianças e práticas antigas). (Spins doctors do governo português aprendam como se faz no que vem a seguir) What do I mean by this, well, if you seriously think that the contraction next year will be of 2% of GDP then it is better to say 3%, and beat your target, than say its going to be 1% growth and come in with a 2% contraction. Not only will your citizens be getting more and more fed up with all of this (and the impact on morale should not be treated lightly) but much more to the point, since Spain is heavily dependent on foreign finance to buy the debt that the government is going to need to issue (see more below) to finance the fiscal deficit, then each and every failure to achieve target is likely to be punished with a higher cost of financing debt (as the yield spread on the risk rises). So as well as the credibility cost, this kind of playing fast and loose with the forecast is now likely to carry a real financial cost."
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Prepare to be dazzled:
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"So Just How Much Will The Spanish Economy Contract In 2009?
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Well, I think this is a very hard question to answer. I think a 1% contraction is a done deal, and my own previous best guess was in the 3% to 5% contraction range, which is, of course, very strong indeed. And there I was happy to leave it, until that is Deutsche Bank came out with their latest 2009 forecast for the German economy, where chief economist Norbert Walter has said that Germany's gross domestic product could contract by as much as 4 percent next year. This has to be "bottom of the range" estimate, but then, it might happen, I mean these are not just numbers spun out of thin air, they are backed by analysis, German manufacturing is contracting very rapidly at the moment (but not as rapidly as Spanish manufacturing). The German government itself is forecasting a 1% contraction, and the IFO institute came out today with 2% contraction for 2009 estimate (the median forecast?). At this point I won't go so far as to modify my original forecast for Spain, but what I will say is that if German GDP contracts by 4% in 2009, then Spain's will contract in the 5% to 7% range, since on every important reading Spain is contracting more rapidly than Germany at this point, and there really is no bottom in sight, just what appears to be a "black hole", sucking us down."
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Aqui estamos melhor que Espanha, ora vejamos:
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"At the risk of boring to tears all my regular readers I would first like to stress that what we have in Spain is not a simple garden-variety housing correction. Spain is a country which was allowed across the 2000-2007 period to develop massive macroeconomic imbalances, which to some extent were reflected in a huge housing boom. But the imbalances (current account deficit of 10% of GDP, massive migrant flows - 5 million people in 8 years, rapidly rising household and corporate debt - rising at 20% pa, and reaching around 90% and 120% of GDP in 2008 respectively) and not the housing are the key to the problem. Thus Spain's economy is not reeling under the weight of the unwinding of the property boom, but rather Spain's property boom is reeling under the impact of the unwinding of the macro imbalances, and this unwinding became more or less inevitable once the US sub prime crisis broke out in August 2007. I think it is no accident that the two countries who noticed most the shell shock from the sub prime turmoil were Spain and Kazakhstan, since these two countries were the most dependent on selling some type of paper or other in the wholsale money markets to finance their imbalances, and the doors to these markets effectively closed in September 2007."
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"Spain's big problem is the current account deficit, which reached 10% of GDP last year (o nosso é de 12%). At the present time this deficit is dropping slightly as imports collapse, but it is not falling as fast as it should be, and meantime, as I am saying, the Spanish government is raising its borrowing needs (também o nosso). Spain has movied in 2008 from having a 2% of GDP surplus in January to a 3% deficit in December (ie a shift of 5% of GDP), in 2009 we will move up to at least 5% (as the IMF suggest, and we could even move higher depending on what happens to GDP)."
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Trechos retirados de "So Just When Does Spain's Twin Deficit Problem Become Unsustainable?" de Eward Hugh.
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Tenho referido muitas vezes esta história da gestão de expectativas: Outra vez a gestão das expectativas ; Gestão de expectativas (parte III) ; Gestão de expectativas (parte II); Gestão de expectativas.
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"One point which is obvious at this stage is that Spanish government forecasting - which has currently built a 1% expansion into the 2009 budget - is getting ever more out of line with the economic dynamic. Really this is the first thing which has to change. Spain urgently needs someone leading the country who is able to turn the page, put some realistic numbers on the table, and try to work to meet objectives, instead of simply failing to achieve them time after time. (Confesso que pensei nisto na véspera das eleições em Espanha, o PSOE devia ter, eu sei que era impossível, apresentado outro candidato a primeiro-ministro, não por causa das ideias de Zapatero, mas porque esta legislatura seria diferente da anterior, seiam precisas outras ideias, outras posturas, seria preciso romper com alianças e práticas antigas). (Spins doctors do governo português aprendam como se faz no que vem a seguir) What do I mean by this, well, if you seriously think that the contraction next year will be of 2% of GDP then it is better to say 3%, and beat your target, than say its going to be 1% growth and come in with a 2% contraction. Not only will your citizens be getting more and more fed up with all of this (and the impact on morale should not be treated lightly) but much more to the point, since Spain is heavily dependent on foreign finance to buy the debt that the government is going to need to issue (see more below) to finance the fiscal deficit, then each and every failure to achieve target is likely to be punished with a higher cost of financing debt (as the yield spread on the risk rises). So as well as the credibility cost, this kind of playing fast and loose with the forecast is now likely to carry a real financial cost."
.
Prepare to be dazzled:
.
"So Just How Much Will The Spanish Economy Contract In 2009?
.
Well, I think this is a very hard question to answer. I think a 1% contraction is a done deal, and my own previous best guess was in the 3% to 5% contraction range, which is, of course, very strong indeed. And there I was happy to leave it, until that is Deutsche Bank came out with their latest 2009 forecast for the German economy, where chief economist Norbert Walter has said that Germany's gross domestic product could contract by as much as 4 percent next year. This has to be "bottom of the range" estimate, but then, it might happen, I mean these are not just numbers spun out of thin air, they are backed by analysis, German manufacturing is contracting very rapidly at the moment (but not as rapidly as Spanish manufacturing). The German government itself is forecasting a 1% contraction, and the IFO institute came out today with 2% contraction for 2009 estimate (the median forecast?). At this point I won't go so far as to modify my original forecast for Spain, but what I will say is that if German GDP contracts by 4% in 2009, then Spain's will contract in the 5% to 7% range, since on every important reading Spain is contracting more rapidly than Germany at this point, and there really is no bottom in sight, just what appears to be a "black hole", sucking us down."
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Aqui estamos melhor que Espanha, ora vejamos:
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"At the risk of boring to tears all my regular readers I would first like to stress that what we have in Spain is not a simple garden-variety housing correction. Spain is a country which was allowed across the 2000-2007 period to develop massive macroeconomic imbalances, which to some extent were reflected in a huge housing boom. But the imbalances (current account deficit of 10% of GDP, massive migrant flows - 5 million people in 8 years, rapidly rising household and corporate debt - rising at 20% pa, and reaching around 90% and 120% of GDP in 2008 respectively) and not the housing are the key to the problem. Thus Spain's economy is not reeling under the weight of the unwinding of the property boom, but rather Spain's property boom is reeling under the impact of the unwinding of the macro imbalances, and this unwinding became more or less inevitable once the US sub prime crisis broke out in August 2007. I think it is no accident that the two countries who noticed most the shell shock from the sub prime turmoil were Spain and Kazakhstan, since these two countries were the most dependent on selling some type of paper or other in the wholsale money markets to finance their imbalances, and the doors to these markets effectively closed in September 2007."
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"Spain's big problem is the current account deficit, which reached 10% of GDP last year (o nosso é de 12%). At the present time this deficit is dropping slightly as imports collapse, but it is not falling as fast as it should be, and meantime, as I am saying, the Spanish government is raising its borrowing needs (também o nosso). Spain has movied in 2008 from having a 2% of GDP surplus in January to a 3% deficit in December (ie a shift of 5% of GDP), in 2009 we will move up to at least 5% (as the IMF suggest, and we could even move higher depending on what happens to GDP)."
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Trechos retirados de "So Just When Does Spain's Twin Deficit Problem Become Unsustainable?" de Eward Hugh.
Como eu olho para a crise
Sou um simples cidadão que tem uma visão bem diferente da dos políticos sobre como agir para fazer face à crise.
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Era uma vez o paraíso na Terra. O paraíso do endividamento, o paraíso do consumo sem poupança, o paraíso do dinheiro fácil e barato.
Os consumidores (C da figura) assentavam o seu nível de consumo no endividamento permanente e progressivo e numa ingénua confiança no futuro, os bancos (F da figura) forneciam crédito fácil e barato.
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Os negócios (B da figura) que interagiam com os consumidores (B2C), à conta do endividamento fácil e barato e aliciados pelo consumo progressivo dos clientes, crença de que as árvores crescem sempre até ao céu, aumentaram a capacidade de produção à custa de investimento.
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O mesmo aconteceu para os negócios (B da figura) que interagiam com outros negócios (B2B).
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O crédito fácil e barato alimentou um aumento do consumo e da capacidade de produção.
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O crédito fácil e barato foi também aproveitado pelos governos para obras e benesses para assegurar votos e perpetuação no poder.
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Todo este ecossistema era alimentado por yenes baratos a taxas de juro pornograficamente baixas, um truque para fazer do Ocidente nações de consumidores dóceis para a produção industrial nipónica (há um ano um dolar valia 114 yenes, quinta-feira chegou a valer menos de 89 yenes)
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Então, no ano passado deu-se o Pum!!!
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A confiança no futuro esvaíu-se e consumidores e negócios descobriram-se endividados até ao tutano. Com a falência da Lehman Brothers, os activos tóxicos e o fim do cash carry trade japonês acabou-se o crédito barato e fácil!!!!
As receitas de impostos começam a diminuir e as despesas sociais a explodir com os subsídios de desemprego, rodada após rodada, pois os empregados despedidos são também consumidores, reforçando o sentimento de receio e incerteza quanto ao futuro ...
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"We are already in a feedback loop of job losses and price reductions reinforcing each other. Expectations of consumers and businesses have become self-fulfilling. For instance the Calculated Risk (comentário-nota a este postal) blog notes a major trucking company will delay the purchase of 300 new trucks in anticipation of a slow down in 2009.
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We now have clear evidence reported in the last few days of all the part of the circle:
1. Falling sales, imports and exports.
2. Falling prices
3. Expectations of worsening conditions
4. Delay or cancel of purchases by both Consumers and Businesses.
5. Increasing layoffs due to weak demand for goods and services."
É então que os governos decidem, à beira de um ataque de pânico apoiar as empresas, tentando salvar os postos de trabalho na política. O espectro da desordem grega paira sobre o asilo europeu ...
Só que, por mais apoios que as empresas recebam... as empresas só fazem sentido se tiverem clientes.
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Era uma vez o paraíso na Terra. O paraíso do endividamento, o paraíso do consumo sem poupança, o paraíso do dinheiro fácil e barato.
Os consumidores (C da figura) assentavam o seu nível de consumo no endividamento permanente e progressivo e numa ingénua confiança no futuro, os bancos (F da figura) forneciam crédito fácil e barato..
Os negócios (B da figura) que interagiam com os consumidores (B2C), à conta do endividamento fácil e barato e aliciados pelo consumo progressivo dos clientes, crença de que as árvores crescem sempre até ao céu, aumentaram a capacidade de produção à custa de investimento.
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O mesmo aconteceu para os negócios (B da figura) que interagiam com outros negócios (B2B).
.
O crédito fácil e barato alimentou um aumento do consumo e da capacidade de produção.
.
O crédito fácil e barato foi também aproveitado pelos governos para obras e benesses para assegurar votos e perpetuação no poder.
.
Todo este ecossistema era alimentado por yenes baratos a taxas de juro pornograficamente baixas, um truque para fazer do Ocidente nações de consumidores dóceis para a produção industrial nipónica (há um ano um dolar valia 114 yenes, quinta-feira chegou a valer menos de 89 yenes)
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Então, no ano passado deu-se o Pum!!!
.
A confiança no futuro esvaíu-se e consumidores e negócios descobriram-se endividados até ao tutano. Com a falência da Lehman Brothers, os activos tóxicos e o fim do cash carry trade japonês acabou-se o crédito barato e fácil!!!!
Os consumidores descobrem que estão a consumir em excesso!!! E acentua-se a incerteza e o medo do que o futuro reserva.
Com a derrocada na procura, sobretudo daquela que exige capital, e uma vez que não há poupança prévia...
... os negócios descobrem que têm excesso de capacidade produtiva instalada, excesso de inventário, excesso de dívidas e ...
... os consumidores e clientes deixaram de consumir ao nível a que tinham consumido e os bancos cortaram a torneira do crédito
Para fazer face à nova realidade as empresas ou fecham, ou reduzem a capacidade ou reduzem custos, quase tudo leva a despedimentos e mais despedimentos.
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Isto começa a preocupar os governos (G da figura) ...
As receitas de impostos começam a diminuir e as despesas sociais a explodir com os subsídios de desemprego, rodada após rodada, pois os empregados despedidos são também consumidores, reforçando o sentimento de receio e incerteza quanto ao futuro ....
"We are already in a feedback loop of job losses and price reductions reinforcing each other. Expectations of consumers and businesses have become self-fulfilling. For instance the Calculated Risk (comentário-nota a este postal) blog notes a major trucking company will delay the purchase of 300 new trucks in anticipation of a slow down in 2009.
.
We now have clear evidence reported in the last few days of all the part of the circle:
1. Falling sales, imports and exports.
2. Falling prices
3. Expectations of worsening conditions
4. Delay or cancel of purchases by both Consumers and Businesses.
5. Increasing layoffs due to weak demand for goods and services."
É então que os governos decidem, à beira de um ataque de pânico apoiar as empresas, tentando salvar os postos de trabalho na política. O espectro da desordem grega paira sobre o asilo europeu ...
Só que, por mais apoios que as empresas recebam... as empresas só fazem sentido se tiverem clientes..
Como toda a gente sabe que está tudo a ser suportado por apoios artificiais a confiança não regressa, continua tudo na retranca. Ao minimo abrandar dos apoios e subsídios voltará tudo ao descalabro do desemprego pois a confiança de quem consome é a base da sustentabilidade do sistema.
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Os apoios são todos concentrados nas empresas e esquecem-se das pessoas.
Medidas do governo português:
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Modernização das escolas - apoio aos amigos e parceiros das construtoras, essa indústria exportadora que tantas divisas traz para o país, que tantos empregos bem remunerados e com alto valor acrescentado dá ao país.
Energias renováveis - só fumaça que faz com que paguemos cada vez mais cara a energia.
Modernização das infraestruturas tecnológicas - só fumaça.
Exportações e PMEs - basta ver o Pùblico de ontem ("Abrir uma linha de crédito para as PME pode ser importante, mas depende. Paulo Trigo Pereira defende que poderá combater a crise, sobretudo num momento em que há fortes restrições de crédito às empresas. Mas Octávio Teixeira lembra que tudo depende do objectivo a que se destina essa linha de crédito. Se for para investimento, diz, poderá não ser eficaz porque se desconhece se as empresas têm possibilidade de suportar o encargo financeiro, dado que já estão fortemente condicionadas pelos problemas de tesouraria. Se for uma linha de crédito para tesouraria, ou seja, para sustentar a operação das empresas no dia-a-dia (salários, compras correntes, etc.), talvez seja útil." útil só para ajudar a suster a respiração, mas por quanto tempo?)
Emprego - basta ver o Público de ontem ("Em geral, as três medidas que se seguem foram apoiadas pelos economistas que o PÚBLICO ouviu ontem, mas com efeitos diferenciados. Chamam a atenção para o carácter recorrente deste tipo de medidas, nalguns casos sem o efeito pretendido.")
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Os consumidores foram longe demais, as empresas foram longe de mais e hoje estão sobredimensionadas para uma procura sustentada.
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O choque económico não tem apenas um efeito pontual, as suas repercussões vão-se prolongar por muito tempo, a migração de valor vai obrigar a re-orientar recursos. E o fim, ou antes, a reformulação da globalização vão criar novas oportunidades de negócio.
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Quem é que sabe que sectores, que apostas serão privilegiadas? Os governos?
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Quem é que sabe que sectores terão de sofrer mais reduções de capacidade? Os governos?
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Eu, que não tenho a informação que têm os governos, e que não tenho medo de eleições que não disputo, proporia uma receita diferente.
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Apoio mínimo às empresas de qualquer sector, os consumidores que decidam quem tem direito a sobreviver como empresa.
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Em contrapartida, apoio máximo às pessoas e sobretudo aos desempregados.
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A opção de não apoiar empresas (e desconfio que as medidas do governo só vão proteger as construtoras, por isso até a opção de apoiar as empresas) gera muitas falências e muito desemprego rapidamente.
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Com o reforço do apoio aos desempregados e eventual apoio ao pagamento ou moratória de algumas dívidas (hipotecas por exemplo) as pessoas verse-iam rapidamente na pior situação (desemprego) mas apoiadas. A partir daí não poderiam piorar a sua situação.
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Assim, estabelecer-e-ia rapidamente uma nova 'baseline' para a confiança no futuro. Quem já está na pior situação só tem duas hipóteses, ou mantém ou melhora.
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Algures no tempo haveria condições para uma melhoria ainda que pequena. Porque pior não poderia ficar e alguma poupança poderia abrir a hipótese de aumentar o consumo.
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Assim, com o apoio às empresas apenas se ajuda a suster a respiração debaixo de água, mas todos os actores do sistema sabem que mais tarde ou mais cedo é preciso vir à tona respirar e aí as coisas podem piorar. Como podem piorar ... é melhor ficar na retranca e poupar e não consumir.
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Adenda das 17:55 - Estas são as minhas ideias, em total oposição às do último Nobel Krugman: aqui... ou talvez não. IMHO estas medidas que os endividados governos europeus andam a tomar só fariam sentido serem tomadas por um país... a Alemanha.
Comunicamos por sombras através de biombos
Se considerarmos o significado da mensagem de Van Zeller quando afirma "Próximo ano será "trágico" e "terrível" para a economia mundial"
"Para o presidente da CIP, na actual conjuntura a maior atenção deverá incidir no próximo ano sobre os apoios sociais e no desemprego." (nota do autor do blogue: algo em que acredito mesmo, muito mais no que o apoio às empresas, como vou tentar explicar mais tarde)
.
A ser assim, e dado o fenómeno de migração de valor, de retorno à frugalidade e de correcção acentuada dos níveis de consumo insustentáveis, com a consequente falência e consolidação de muitas empresas, quem é que pode assegurar que uma dada empresa em particular vai ser capaz de sobreviver a esta crise, que poderá durar 1, 2, 3, ... 5, 10 anos (à japonesa)?
.
Por isso, só por motivos plenamente justificáveis do negócio (desconto outras interpretações possíveis) compreendo perfeitamente o receio dos bancos em não emprestar dinheiro... que garantias têm de que o cliente-empresa vai sobreviver à crise?
.
"Teixeira dos Santos: ”É preciso pressionar os bancos para que façam chegar o dinheiro às empresas”"
.
Será que o governo está disponível para dar avales, como no caso do BPP? (humor negro)
"Para o presidente da CIP, na actual conjuntura a maior atenção deverá incidir no próximo ano sobre os apoios sociais e no desemprego." (nota do autor do blogue: algo em que acredito mesmo, muito mais no que o apoio às empresas, como vou tentar explicar mais tarde)
.
A ser assim, e dado o fenómeno de migração de valor, de retorno à frugalidade e de correcção acentuada dos níveis de consumo insustentáveis, com a consequente falência e consolidação de muitas empresas, quem é que pode assegurar que uma dada empresa em particular vai ser capaz de sobreviver a esta crise, que poderá durar 1, 2, 3, ... 5, 10 anos (à japonesa)?
.
Por isso, só por motivos plenamente justificáveis do negócio (desconto outras interpretações possíveis) compreendo perfeitamente o receio dos bancos em não emprestar dinheiro... que garantias têm de que o cliente-empresa vai sobreviver à crise?
.
"Teixeira dos Santos: ”É preciso pressionar os bancos para que façam chegar o dinheiro às empresas”"
.
Será que o governo está disponível para dar avales, como no caso do BPP? (humor negro)
Scorecard Capital Humano (parte II)
Pós-Graduação em Gestão Estratégica de Recursos Humanos da APG-GRN.
.
Acetatos relativos às sessões 3 e 4 podem ser encontrados aqui (não esquecer a palavra-chave).
.
Bibliografia sobre o tema Balanced Scorecard: Transformar para concentrar uma organização no que é essencial pode ser encontrada aqui.
.
Há dias desenvolvi aqui no blogue o tema do desenvolvimento de um balanced Scorecard departamental: Exemplo de balanced scorecard (parte X), tema que já abordei aqui também: E um BSC departamental?
.
Acetatos das sessões 1 e 2 podem ser encontrados aqui:Scorecard Capital Humano (parte I)
.
Agradeço a Vossa colaboração, interesse e simpatia.
.
Acetatos relativos às sessões 3 e 4 podem ser encontrados aqui (não esquecer a palavra-chave).
.
Bibliografia sobre o tema Balanced Scorecard: Transformar para concentrar uma organização no que é essencial pode ser encontrada aqui.
.
Há dias desenvolvi aqui no blogue o tema do desenvolvimento de um balanced Scorecard departamental: Exemplo de balanced scorecard (parte X), tema que já abordei aqui também: E um BSC departamental?
.
Acetatos das sessões 1 e 2 podem ser encontrados aqui:Scorecard Capital Humano (parte I)
.
Agradeço a Vossa colaboração, interesse e simpatia.
Momento taróloga Maya
Como é que o último descalabro orçamental foi sustido, reduzido e maquilhado? Não, não vale falar em receitas extraordinárias! Então?
.
Á custa do aumento dos impostos, quase não se tocou na despesa!
.
O que vai acontecer no próximo ano?
.
O agravamento do descalabro orçamental!
.
Quando um dia a crise internacional acabar e deixar de ser justificação para a UE tolerar défices excessivos, como é que acham que o governo da altura vai suster e reduzir o défice?
.
Acreditam mesmo que é com a redução da despesa? Então, e os direitos adquiridos?
.
E os estádios para o Mundial conjunto com a Espanha a realizar em 2018, como serão construídos e/ou melhorados?
.
O jugo sobre os saxões impostados vai apertar como nunca!
.
Á custa do aumento dos impostos, quase não se tocou na despesa!
.
O que vai acontecer no próximo ano?
.
O agravamento do descalabro orçamental!
.
Quando um dia a crise internacional acabar e deixar de ser justificação para a UE tolerar défices excessivos, como é que acham que o governo da altura vai suster e reduzir o défice?
.
Acreditam mesmo que é com a redução da despesa? Então, e os direitos adquiridos?
.
E os estádios para o Mundial conjunto com a Espanha a realizar em 2018, como serão construídos e/ou melhorados?
.
O jugo sobre os saxões impostados vai apertar como nunca!
O dilema (parte II)... ou o rastilho para a parte XI...
Continuado daqui.
.
Para muitas PME's este é mesmo um dilema... descontinuar a produção de uma família de produtos é como matar um filho.
.
Defendemos neste espaço a concentração das empresas no que é essencial. Ou seja, é um perigo misturar propostas de valor sob o mesmo tecto.
.
Basta ler grandes pensadores da estratégia de operações como Skinner:
.
"A factory cannot perform well on every yardstick"
"Within the factory, managers can make the manufacturing function a competitive weapon by outstanding accomplishment of one or more of the measures of manufacturing performance. But managers need to know: "What must we be especially good at?...""Focused manufacturing must be derived from an explicitly defined corporate strategy which has its roots in a corporate marketing plan. Therefore, the choice of focus cannot be made independently by production people. Instead, it has to be a resul of a comprehensive analysis of the company resources, strengths and weanesses, position in the industry, assessment of competitors' moves, and forecast of future customer motives and behavior.Conversely, the choice of focus cannot be made without considering the existing factory because of a given set of facilities, systems, and people skills can do only certain things well within a given time period."
.
Ou como Hill:
.
"Once markets and their characterístics are agreed (quem são os clientes-alvo, qual a proposta de valor que lhes vamos oferecer), a company starts to gain control of its strategy. Then it is able to judge whether a piece of business fits its strategic direction. Thus, from there on in,
These mark the boundaries by declaring the segments of a market in which a company decides it does not wish to compete. Whithout this level of clarity, all orders are deemed to be equally attractive. By definition that cannot be. But without a mechanism for knowing how to judge, appropriate decisions cannot be made."
.
Tudo indica que o dilema deve ser resolvido descontinuando a produção dos produtos maduros
...
.
Só que essa opção leva ao desenrolar de um filme que já conhecemos ... um filme muito bem explicado por Christensen & Raynor no livro "The Innovator's Solution" e exemplificado com a guerra entre as siderurgias tradicionais e as mini-siderurgias. Ao abandonar a produção dos produtos maduros com margens mais reduzidas, está-se a dar aos concorrentes que ocupam esse mercado um rendimento garantido que vão usar para, a seu tempo, subir na escala de valor e atacar a nata onde opera a empresa.
.
A solução passa por criar diferentes unidades de negócio, cada uma delas dedicada à produção de uma proposta de valor, cada uma delas com diferentes estruturas de custos (para quê sobrecarregar a estrutura de custos do produto barato com o pagamento da investigação e desenvolvimento, por exemplo) , cada uma delas com diferentes equipas comerciais (como tão bem conta o CEO da Electrolux: "we decide we could still make money in both ends if we separated our business models for the two ends of the market. Dividing the sales force is one example of what I mean when I talk about different business models.”)
.
Quando não há capital para arranjar um espaço independente para a nova unidade de negócio pode recorrer-se ao conceito de Plant-within-Plant.
.
Desta forma, e por outros motivos ainda, uma administração pode ter que gerir várias unidades de negócio. Uma coisa é criar valor dentro e cada unidade de negócio, outra é acrescentar valor ao grupo de unidades de negócio. Será que é possível criar valor em resultado de um grupo de empresas fazer parte desse grupo? Será que é possível gerar valor extra por efeito de uma sinergia de grupo?
.
Outro uso do balanced scorecard (BSC) é o de ajudar a alinhar e executar uma estratégia corporativa que reúne várias unidades de negócio.
.
Continua na parte XI da série.
.
Para muitas PME's este é mesmo um dilema... descontinuar a produção de uma família de produtos é como matar um filho.
.
Defendemos neste espaço a concentração das empresas no que é essencial. Ou seja, é um perigo misturar propostas de valor sob o mesmo tecto.
.
Basta ler grandes pensadores da estratégia de operações como Skinner:
.
"A factory cannot perform well on every yardstick"
"Within the factory, managers can make the manufacturing function a competitive weapon by outstanding accomplishment of one or more of the measures of manufacturing performance. But managers need to know: "What must we be especially good at?...""Focused manufacturing must be derived from an explicitly defined corporate strategy which has its roots in a corporate marketing plan. Therefore, the choice of focus cannot be made independently by production people. Instead, it has to be a resul of a comprehensive analysis of the company resources, strengths and weanesses, position in the industry, assessment of competitors' moves, and forecast of future customer motives and behavior.Conversely, the choice of focus cannot be made without considering the existing factory because of a given set of facilities, systems, and people skills can do only certain things well within a given time period."
.
Ou como Hill:
.
"Once markets and their characterístics are agreed (quem são os clientes-alvo, qual a proposta de valor que lhes vamos oferecer), a company starts to gain control of its strategy. Then it is able to judge whether a piece of business fits its strategic direction. Thus, from there on in,
.
the most important orders are the ones to which a company says 'no'.
.the most important orders are the ones to which a company says 'no'.
These mark the boundaries by declaring the segments of a market in which a company decides it does not wish to compete. Whithout this level of clarity, all orders are deemed to be equally attractive. By definition that cannot be. But without a mechanism for knowing how to judge, appropriate decisions cannot be made."
.
Tudo indica que o dilema deve ser resolvido descontinuando a produção dos produtos maduros
...
.
Só que essa opção leva ao desenrolar de um filme que já conhecemos ... um filme muito bem explicado por Christensen & Raynor no livro "The Innovator's Solution" e exemplificado com a guerra entre as siderurgias tradicionais e as mini-siderurgias. Ao abandonar a produção dos produtos maduros com margens mais reduzidas, está-se a dar aos concorrentes que ocupam esse mercado um rendimento garantido que vão usar para, a seu tempo, subir na escala de valor e atacar a nata onde opera a empresa.
.
A solução passa por criar diferentes unidades de negócio, cada uma delas dedicada à produção de uma proposta de valor, cada uma delas com diferentes estruturas de custos (para quê sobrecarregar a estrutura de custos do produto barato com o pagamento da investigação e desenvolvimento, por exemplo) , cada uma delas com diferentes equipas comerciais (como tão bem conta o CEO da Electrolux: "we decide we could still make money in both ends if we separated our business models for the two ends of the market. Dividing the sales force is one example of what I mean when I talk about different business models.”)
.
Quando não há capital para arranjar um espaço independente para a nova unidade de negócio pode recorrer-se ao conceito de Plant-within-Plant.
.
Desta forma, e por outros motivos ainda, uma administração pode ter que gerir várias unidades de negócio. Uma coisa é criar valor dentro e cada unidade de negócio, outra é acrescentar valor ao grupo de unidades de negócio. Será que é possível criar valor em resultado de um grupo de empresas fazer parte desse grupo? Será que é possível gerar valor extra por efeito de uma sinergia de grupo?
.
Outro uso do balanced scorecard (BSC) é o de ajudar a alinhar e executar uma estratégia corporativa que reúne várias unidades de negócio.
.
Continua na parte XI da série.
domingo, dezembro 14, 2008
Vamos brincar à caridadezinha
"O primeiro-ministro, José Sócrates, salientou na entrega de diplomas a dezenas de formandos do Centro de Formação Profissional do Seixal, no âmbito do Programa Novas Oportunidades, que a qualificação é a solução para defender o emprego.
.
«Mais qualificações garantem mais emprego, mas garantem também a redução de desigualdades», sublinhou José Sócrates."
.
"«Este programa Novas Oportunidades visa melhorar as qualificações dos portugueses, é o melhor contributo para o emprego mas também para reduzir as desigualdades», afirmou o primeiro-ministro."
.
Que se aumentem as qualificações por todas as razões e mais uma OK.
.
Agora, aumentar as qualificações para defender o emprego, não!
.
Basta recordar o que recentemente esceveu James K. Galbraith "The Predator State - How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too" e que abordamos aqui: Ainda acerca da formação profissional
.
"Job training is a canonical example of the well-brought-up liberal's (atenção à conotação americana para o termo) urge to make markets work. The policy follows from an argument about the nature of unemployment and low wages, and as with neraly all similar exercices, the argument begins by assuming the existence of a market. In this case, the market is known as the "labor market," and it supposedly matches demand for labor, which comes from businesses, to the supply offered by individuals. If individuals lack the minimal skills that business requires, they cannot compete for jobs. Unemployment must result. The purpose of job training therefore is to move individuals into a position from which they can effectively compete for available employment.
.
In this analysis every detail is correct: there are businesses that require labor, and there are individuals who would like jobs but do not qualify for them. It is true that a job-training program can help. Yet the sum of these details falls far short of the claim made for them as a whole. It does not follow that job-training programs reduce unemployment or poverty. It is not even clear that they foster the creation of a single additional job.
.
The problem is that poverty and unemployment are not much influenced by the qualities and qualifications of the workforce. They depend, rather, on the state of demand for labor. They depend on whether firms want to hire all the workers who may be available and at the pay rates that firms are willing, or required, to offer, especially to the lowest paid.
.
Firms in the happy position of strongly expanding markets and bright profit prospects can almost always find the workers they need, either pulling directly from the pool of the unemployed or poaching qualified workers from other firms (or nations). For such firm, the costs of rudimentary job training for unskilled and semiskilled positions are secondary (como se prova facilmente com o exemplo dos portugueses que emigram para a Alemanha ou Suiça); if workers with appropriate training are not readilly available, they can be trained in-house. Conversely, firms facing stagnant demand and bleak prospects do not add workers simply because trained candidates happen to be available.
.
Job traing in most offices is extremely specific to that office: its systems, its bosses, its routines. Generic training programs, the only kind government can provide, cannot duplicate this function.
...
if companies are not hiring, job training is irrelevant.
...
if you really want to reduce unemployment and poverty, it is obvious from recent history that job training has nothing to do with it." (a não ser na cosmética dos número do desemprego, já que quem frequenta a formação não contribui para os números do desemprego).
.
Basta pensar naquela citação ali há direita sobre a realidade finlandesa "It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
.
Basta recordar o esbracejar de desepero do presidente da câmara de Guimarães: "Fábricas a encerrar, salários em atraso, jovens qualificados sem trabalho,"... "Mas penso que àqueles desempregados aos quais não é possível dar mais formação - porque a formação de base é tão baixa que não dá para dar um salto qualitativo mínimo para outro lado"... "Outro problema igualmente complexo é o dos jovens que têm formação e não encontram trabalho no mercado. Infelizmente, neste momento, não há na região trabalho qualificado para acolher essa mão-de-obra..."
.
Enfim, é assim tão difícil de perceber o que diz Galbraith?
.
"The problem is that poverty and unemployment are not much influenced by the qualities and qualifications of the workforce. They depend, rather, on the state of demand for labor."
.
Ás vezes penso numa outra frase de Galbraith:
.
"In a world where the winners are all connected, it is not only the prey (who by and large carry little political weight) who lose out. It is everyone who has not licked the appropriate boots. Predatory regimes are, more or less exactly, like protection rackets: powerful and feared but neither loved nor respected. They cannot reward everyone, and therefore they do not enjoy a broad political base. In addition, they are intrinsically unstable, something that does not trouble the predators but makes life for ordinary business enterprise exceptionally trying
....
predators suck the capacity from government and deplete it of the ability to govern. In the short run, again, this looks like simple incompetence, but this is an illusion. Predators do not mind being thought incompetent: the accusation helps to obscure their actual agenda."
.
«Mais qualificações garantem mais emprego, mas garantem também a redução de desigualdades», sublinhou José Sócrates."
.
"«Este programa Novas Oportunidades visa melhorar as qualificações dos portugueses, é o melhor contributo para o emprego mas também para reduzir as desigualdades», afirmou o primeiro-ministro."
.
Que se aumentem as qualificações por todas as razões e mais uma OK.
.
Agora, aumentar as qualificações para defender o emprego, não!
.
Basta recordar o que recentemente esceveu James K. Galbraith "The Predator State - How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too" e que abordamos aqui: Ainda acerca da formação profissional
.
"Job training is a canonical example of the well-brought-up liberal's (atenção à conotação americana para o termo) urge to make markets work. The policy follows from an argument about the nature of unemployment and low wages, and as with neraly all similar exercices, the argument begins by assuming the existence of a market. In this case, the market is known as the "labor market," and it supposedly matches demand for labor, which comes from businesses, to the supply offered by individuals. If individuals lack the minimal skills that business requires, they cannot compete for jobs. Unemployment must result. The purpose of job training therefore is to move individuals into a position from which they can effectively compete for available employment.
.
In this analysis every detail is correct: there are businesses that require labor, and there are individuals who would like jobs but do not qualify for them. It is true that a job-training program can help. Yet the sum of these details falls far short of the claim made for them as a whole. It does not follow that job-training programs reduce unemployment or poverty. It is not even clear that they foster the creation of a single additional job.
.
The problem is that poverty and unemployment are not much influenced by the qualities and qualifications of the workforce. They depend, rather, on the state of demand for labor. They depend on whether firms want to hire all the workers who may be available and at the pay rates that firms are willing, or required, to offer, especially to the lowest paid.
.
Firms in the happy position of strongly expanding markets and bright profit prospects can almost always find the workers they need, either pulling directly from the pool of the unemployed or poaching qualified workers from other firms (or nations). For such firm, the costs of rudimentary job training for unskilled and semiskilled positions are secondary (como se prova facilmente com o exemplo dos portugueses que emigram para a Alemanha ou Suiça); if workers with appropriate training are not readilly available, they can be trained in-house. Conversely, firms facing stagnant demand and bleak prospects do not add workers simply because trained candidates happen to be available.
.
Job traing in most offices is extremely specific to that office: its systems, its bosses, its routines. Generic training programs, the only kind government can provide, cannot duplicate this function.
...
if companies are not hiring, job training is irrelevant.
...
if you really want to reduce unemployment and poverty, it is obvious from recent history that job training has nothing to do with it." (a não ser na cosmética dos número do desemprego, já que quem frequenta a formação não contribui para os números do desemprego).
.
Basta pensar naquela citação ali há direita sobre a realidade finlandesa "It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
.
Basta recordar o esbracejar de desepero do presidente da câmara de Guimarães: "Fábricas a encerrar, salários em atraso, jovens qualificados sem trabalho,"... "Mas penso que àqueles desempregados aos quais não é possível dar mais formação - porque a formação de base é tão baixa que não dá para dar um salto qualitativo mínimo para outro lado"... "Outro problema igualmente complexo é o dos jovens que têm formação e não encontram trabalho no mercado. Infelizmente, neste momento, não há na região trabalho qualificado para acolher essa mão-de-obra..."
.
Enfim, é assim tão difícil de perceber o que diz Galbraith?
.
"The problem is that poverty and unemployment are not much influenced by the qualities and qualifications of the workforce. They depend, rather, on the state of demand for labor."
.
Ás vezes penso numa outra frase de Galbraith:
.
"In a world where the winners are all connected, it is not only the prey (who by and large carry little political weight) who lose out. It is everyone who has not licked the appropriate boots. Predatory regimes are, more or less exactly, like protection rackets: powerful and feared but neither loved nor respected. They cannot reward everyone, and therefore they do not enjoy a broad political base. In addition, they are intrinsically unstable, something that does not trouble the predators but makes life for ordinary business enterprise exceptionally trying
....
predators suck the capacity from government and deplete it of the ability to govern. In the short run, again, this looks like simple incompetence, but this is an illusion. Predators do not mind being thought incompetent: the accusation helps to obscure their actual agenda."
Quando a proposta de valor é inovação
Quando queremos seduzir potenciais clientes que valorizam a inovação as empresas têm de apostar em três vectores principais:
.
É com um sorriso malandro que encontro esta notícia e a entendo... também estão a perceber os meus amigos a quem dediquei este postal?
.
"Wyeth Is Pressed on Drug Reviews"
.
"Congressional investigators are probing drug maker Wyeth's practices concerning scientific-paper writing and whether its marketing employees help shape manuscripts for medical journals.
.
In separate letters to Wyeth and DesignWrite Inc., a medical-writing and -education company hired by Wyeth, Sen. Charles Grassley asked the companies to disclose payments he said were made to prepare certain articles and for information about how doctors were recruited to place their names on those articles. The articles, published in peer-reviewed medical journals, involved Prempro and other female-hormone-replacement therapies made by Wyeth."
- rapidez na chegada ao mercado;
- marca; e
- desempenho dos produtos.
.
É com um sorriso malandro que encontro esta notícia e a entendo... também estão a perceber os meus amigos a quem dediquei este postal?
.
"Wyeth Is Pressed on Drug Reviews"
.
"Congressional investigators are probing drug maker Wyeth's practices concerning scientific-paper writing and whether its marketing employees help shape manuscripts for medical journals.
.
In separate letters to Wyeth and DesignWrite Inc., a medical-writing and -education company hired by Wyeth, Sen. Charles Grassley asked the companies to disclose payments he said were made to prepare certain articles and for information about how doctors were recruited to place their names on those articles. The articles, published in peer-reviewed medical journals, involved Prempro and other female-hormone-replacement therapies made by Wyeth."
Fazer as perguntas certas pela ordem certa
É sempre bom fazer perguntas, é sempre bom colocar-mos questões a nós e aos outros.
.
É sempre aconselhável seguir uma sequência para as perguntas:
.
É sempre aconselhável seguir uma sequência para as perguntas:
- Por que é preciso mudar?
- O que tem de mudar?
- Mudar para onde?
- Como mudar?
sábado, dezembro 13, 2008
Para onde nos leva o deboche
O deboche leva-nos para os braços da deflação:
.
"Deflation has become inevitable" no Naked Capitalism ...
"Now to my doubts about the proposed remedies, namely monster stimulus and monetary easing. First, as mentioned before, the analogy is to the US in the Depression, which we have said repeatedly before is questionable. The US in the 1920s was the world's biggest creditor, exporter, and manufacturer. Our position then is analogous to China's now. Indeed, Keynes in the 1930s urged America to take even more aggressive measures, and argued that it was not reasonable for the US to expect over-consuming, debt-burdened countries like the UK and France to take up the demand slack. So even though most economists are invoking Keynes, it isn't clear he's prescribe such aggressive stimulus for the US and UK now."
.
(Pois em Maio deste ano "Os impostados que paguem a crise")
.
... por causa deste postal "Deflation has become inevitable no London Banker.
.
"The result of discouraging domestic and foreign creditors and investors must be inevitable deflation as debt levels become increasingly hard to finance and ultimately contract. Irresponsible central banks and governments can try to bail out the failed banks, businesses and municipalities at the centre of every popped bubble, but the bubble economies are ever more certain to deflate with each bailout. Each bailout further undermines the market discipline which is bedrock to a saver or investor’s decision to part with hard-earned cash by trusting it to the intermediation of the management of a bank or business."
.
Ainda acerca da deflação "Humpty Dumpty On Inflation" no Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
.
"It's Not Disinflation
It's Not Stagflation
It's Not Inflation
It's Not Hyperinflation
.
What's left looks like a duck, walks like a duck, flies like a duck, and squawks like a duck. And that duck is deflation no matter what Humpty Dumpty suggests."
.
"Deflation has become inevitable" no Naked Capitalism ...
"Now to my doubts about the proposed remedies, namely monster stimulus and monetary easing. First, as mentioned before, the analogy is to the US in the Depression, which we have said repeatedly before is questionable. The US in the 1920s was the world's biggest creditor, exporter, and manufacturer. Our position then is analogous to China's now. Indeed, Keynes in the 1930s urged America to take even more aggressive measures, and argued that it was not reasonable for the US to expect over-consuming, debt-burdened countries like the UK and France to take up the demand slack. So even though most economists are invoking Keynes, it isn't clear he's prescribe such aggressive stimulus for the US and UK now."
.
(Pois em Maio deste ano "Os impostados que paguem a crise")
.
... por causa deste postal "Deflation has become inevitable no London Banker.
.
"The result of discouraging domestic and foreign creditors and investors must be inevitable deflation as debt levels become increasingly hard to finance and ultimately contract. Irresponsible central banks and governments can try to bail out the failed banks, businesses and municipalities at the centre of every popped bubble, but the bubble economies are ever more certain to deflate with each bailout. Each bailout further undermines the market discipline which is bedrock to a saver or investor’s decision to part with hard-earned cash by trusting it to the intermediation of the management of a bank or business."
.
Ainda acerca da deflação "Humpty Dumpty On Inflation" no Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
.
"It's Not Disinflation
It's Not Stagflation
It's Not Inflation
It's Not Hyperinflation
.
What's left looks like a duck, walks like a duck, flies like a duck, and squawks like a duck. And that duck is deflation no matter what Humpty Dumpty suggests."
O que não chega aos jornais
No Telegraph de hoje:
.
"Improbable though it may seem, the wrecked financial system and burnt-out economy are regarded by Gordon Brown not as shackles on his electability, but an opportunity to bamboozle voters. Having boasted in the Commons this week, "We not only saved the world..." the Prime Minister's logical next step is to invite the country to demonstrate its gratitude."
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Lets make an arrangement:
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: "Improbable though it may seem, the wrecked financial system and burnt-out economy are regarded by _______________ not as shackles on his electability, but an opportunity to bamboozle voters. Having boasted in the _______________ this week, "We not only saved the world..." the Prime Minister's logical next step is to invite the country to demonstrate its gratitude."
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Ainda ontem no Expresso da meia-noite se defendia o contrário disto:
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"Labour spin doctors finally accepted, albeit privately, that the game was up earlier this year when a Lords inquiry into immigration demolished the economic case, too. It concluded that waves of new arrivals had produced a negative impact on the low paid and on training for young UK workers."
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"Willingness to help the unfortunate is a mark of a decent society. But for many who prefer not to work, incapacity benefit is nothing more than a rewarding and easily secured alternative to the Jobseeker's Allowance." e algo que todos conheecemos do dia-a-dia:
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"If anything good can be extracted from the harrowing tale of Shannon Matthews, it is that a veil was lifted on the degrading impact of irresponsible handouts to morally bankrupt parasites. This cannot be allowed to go on. In the turpitude of her broken home, we reached the end of the road.
On my way to work, during rush hour, I often see a blind woman commuting into the City with her guide dog. The effort she makes to hold down a 9-to-5 job in London's hurly burly is little short of heroic. No reasonable person could blame her for staying at home on benefits. Instead, she battles on.
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It is a sick society in which a woman such as this works and pays taxes so that Karen Matthews and her ilk can draw £300-£400 a week, producing children only for the purpose of guaranteeing yet more freebies."
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"Improbable though it may seem, the wrecked financial system and burnt-out economy are regarded by Gordon Brown not as shackles on his electability, but an opportunity to bamboozle voters. Having boasted in the Commons this week, "We not only saved the world..." the Prime Minister's logical next step is to invite the country to demonstrate its gratitude."
.
Lets make an arrangement:
.
: "Improbable though it may seem, the wrecked financial system and burnt-out economy are regarded by _______________ not as shackles on his electability, but an opportunity to bamboozle voters. Having boasted in the _______________ this week, "We not only saved the world..." the Prime Minister's logical next step is to invite the country to demonstrate its gratitude."
.
Ainda ontem no Expresso da meia-noite se defendia o contrário disto:
.
"Labour spin doctors finally accepted, albeit privately, that the game was up earlier this year when a Lords inquiry into immigration demolished the economic case, too. It concluded that waves of new arrivals had produced a negative impact on the low paid and on training for young UK workers."
.
"Willingness to help the unfortunate is a mark of a decent society. But for many who prefer not to work, incapacity benefit is nothing more than a rewarding and easily secured alternative to the Jobseeker's Allowance." e algo que todos conheecemos do dia-a-dia:
.
"If anything good can be extracted from the harrowing tale of Shannon Matthews, it is that a veil was lifted on the degrading impact of irresponsible handouts to morally bankrupt parasites. This cannot be allowed to go on. In the turpitude of her broken home, we reached the end of the road.
On my way to work, during rush hour, I often see a blind woman commuting into the City with her guide dog. The effort she makes to hold down a 9-to-5 job in London's hurly burly is little short of heroic. No reasonable person could blame her for staying at home on benefits. Instead, she battles on.
.
It is a sick society in which a woman such as this works and pays taxes so that Karen Matthews and her ilk can draw £300-£400 a week, producing children only for the purpose of guaranteeing yet more freebies."
Migração de valor (parte XII) ou Ersatz (parte III)
"The recession will create a new breed of (UK) consumer focused on thrift and a return to "traditional values" that will survive for half a century, according to one of the UK's most senior food retailers."
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"Asda chief executive Andy Bond predicted that there would be a long-term shift from "frivolous to frugal where frugal is cool", even among people who are well off, similar to the way post-World War II attitudes remained among those who lived through rationing.
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"I make the analogy that my Mum and Dad are old enough to remember after the end of the war and the way they are now was defined by that. There is a type of consumer that will behave differently for 40 or 50 years after what they learn and how they change now," he said."
"I make the analogy that my Mum and Dad are old enough to remember after the end of the war and the way they are now was defined by that. There is a type of consumer that will behave differently for 40 or 50 years after what they learn and how they change now," he said."
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Isto lembra-me o que ouvi numa conferência do IPAM em Lisboa em Novembro de 2007, pela boca de Charles Schewe:
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"Geoffrey Meredith and Charles Schewe define a cohort as 'a group of people united in an effort or difficulty,' or as 'companions or associates.' In demographic terms, a birth cohort is a group of people born during a given time period who share the same historic environment and many of the same life experiences, including tastes and preferences.""
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