sábado, dezembro 13, 2008

Para onde nos leva o deboche

O deboche leva-nos para os braços da deflação:
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"Deflation has become inevitable" no Naked Capitalism ...

"Now to my doubts about the proposed remedies, namely monster stimulus and monetary easing. First, as mentioned before, the analogy is to the US in the Depression, which we have said repeatedly before is questionable. The US in the 1920s was the world's biggest creditor, exporter, and manufacturer. Our position then is analogous to China's now. Indeed, Keynes in the 1930s urged America to take even more aggressive measures, and argued that it was not reasonable for the US to expect over-consuming, debt-burdened countries like the UK and France to take up the demand slack. So even though most economists are invoking Keynes, it isn't clear he's prescribe such aggressive stimulus for the US and UK now."
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(Pois em Maio deste ano "Os impostados que paguem a crise")
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... por causa deste postal "Deflation has become inevitable no London Banker.
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"The result of discouraging domestic and foreign creditors and investors must be inevitable deflation as debt levels become increasingly hard to finance and ultimately contract. Irresponsible central banks and governments can try to bail out the failed banks, businesses and municipalities at the centre of every popped bubble, but the bubble economies are ever more certain to deflate with each bailout. Each bailout further undermines the market discipline which is bedrock to a saver or investor’s decision to part with hard-earned cash by trusting it to the intermediation of the management of a bank or business."
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Ainda acerca da deflação "Humpty Dumpty On Inflation" no Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
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"It's Not Disinflation
It's Not Stagflation
It's Not Inflation
It's Not Hyperinflation
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What's left looks like a duck, walks like a duck, flies like a duck, and squawks like a duck. And that duck is deflation no matter what Humpty Dumpty suggests."

1 comentário:

CCz disse...

Americans Continue to Cut Back on Driving
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http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/12/12/americans-continue-to-cut-back-on-driving/