Mongo, land of the weird

The 20th century - Land of mass 

Some say that the 20th century in economic terms started in October 1913 with the opening of the first Ford assembly line.

 

"On October 7, 1913, the production of the model that was to become the classic of the classics moved to Highland Park."

 

The Ford founder said that the customer could choose the color of the car as long as it was black, but more, it was not just any black, it had to be Japan Black, because it was the color that dried faster.

 

"it was the ability of japan black to dry quickly that made it a favorite of early mass-produced automobiles such as Henry Ford's Model T. The Ford company's reliance on japan black led Henry Ford to quip" Any customer can have a car painted any color that he wants so long as it is black ".

While other colors were available for automotive finishes, early colored variants of automotive lacquers could take up to 14 days to cure, whereas japan black would cure in 48 hours or less. "

 

The twentieth century, in economic terms, was a time when demand was greater than supply.

And when demand is greater than supply, the boss is the one who produces. Who produces is who establishes what is produced, what is put on the market and with what specifications. In this type of competitive universe, the critical success factor is price. Therefore, everything is done to be efficient, to increase the production rate, to reduce unit costs.

·      "economics of scale;

·      large, physically and temporally concentrated production facilities;

·      long production runs;

·      mass markets;

·      task specialization; and

·      standardization. "

 One of the biggest enemies of efficiency is variety, because long production runs are wanted. The 20th century didn't want variety, it wanted blockbusters, it wanted big sellers, it wanted best sellers, it wanted market share. And the customers?

 

Customers agreed to exchange variety for uniformity because they were able to access goods at a lower price. Seth Godin uses admirable metaphor to portray this world. The world in which producers treat consumers like plankton, an indistinct and homogeneous mass, without individual wishes.

 

When the deal is price, when the deal is dictated by efficiency, when everything produced has a way out, then it is enough to look inside, it is enough to measure performance based on financial results. So I call the 20th century economic model Magnitogorsk or Levittown.

 

The city of Magnitogorsk in the USSR was rebuilt during Stalinism:

 

"In Magnitogorsk, there were two types of apartment, named 'A' and 'B'. They were the city’s sole concession to variety."

 

I read somewhere that the difference between type A and type B lay in the color of the lamps, white or orange. Do not think that the Magnitogorsk were a hallmark of the communist world. No, they were a consequence of an industrial model based on mass production and with little or no care with what users intended or valued. The United States also had its version, Levittown:

 

"In July 1947, on potato fields 20 miles from Manhattan, William Levitt pioneered the mass production of affordable homes. Variations in the 17,477 houses were minor; each had two bedrooms, a bath, living room and kitchen on a 750-square-foot By standardizing the units, Levitt eventually was able to put up more than two dozen a day, helping fill the enormous postwar demand. Over the years, innumerable changes to the homes have transformed the community. But even now, Levittown remains a kind of shorthand for the sameness of mass production that's starting to give way to mass customization. "

 

When the competitive landscape begins to ripple

 

As the twentieth century progressed, the imbalance between supply and demand was reduced until it passed to the other side: supply became bigger than demand.

 

When this happens, a real epistemological shock occurs. It is not enough to produce, power passes to those who buy, not to those who produce. And that changes everything. What is the use of being very efficient if the product does not leave the warehouse?

 

The more the imbalance accentuated, the more power passed to the buyer, the more the producer had to get off the pedestal and try to seduce the buyer. 

 

And it is in this context of increasing competition, increasing variety, the growing power of choice for customers and consumers translates into a growing complexity and variety with a more uncertain, faster world, with many variants, with many more strategies.

 

I like to use the image of a landscape that ripples over time to illustrate what happens in the economic world as we abandon the 20th century paradigm:

While the twentieth century could be represented by a landscape with a single peak, and the further up the peak, the more return organizations had. And they were all looking for the same, to climb as high as possible and as quickly as possible to the top of the same peak. Whoever climbs faster will have a competitive advantage over the rest, given the virtuous mechanism of the effect of scale in a scenario governed by efficiency. The 21st century economy, on the other hand, is progressively wrinkling and generating more and more peaks. More and more companies, despite appearing to be operating in the same economic sector, do not compete with each other, as they specialize in serving different types of customers in different circumstances. One of the phrases I often repeat is that economics is a continuation of biology. And biology gives us great lessons that can be translated into economics. One of the stories I most like to tell is that of doctoral student Robert MacArthur who discovered that five different species of warblers could feed on the same tree without competing with each other, each species fed on a different area:

An example of what the Russian biologist G. Gause published in 1934 in the book “The struggle for existence”, where he reported the conclusions of a set of experiments, he carried out with paramecia and from which I quote the principle of exclusive competition:

 

"Two species cannot coexist indefinitely if they feed on the same type of scarce nutrient."

 

Making the parallelism for organizations; in a world bursting with variety, companies cannot be managed in the same way. Different "species" serve different types of customers. So, they need to be managed differently. 

 

I use the label Mongo to describe this world of increasing variety where effectiveness is much more important than efficiency.

The 90% economy"

"IN MANY THINGS 90% is just fine; in an economy it is miserable, and China shows why. The country started to end its lockdown in February. Factories are busy and the streets are no longer empty. The result is the 90% economy. It is better than a severe lockdown, but it is far from normal. The missing bits include large chunks of everyday life.

...

Discretionary consumer spending, on such things as restaurants, has fallen by 40% and hotel stays are a third of normal. People are weighed down by financial hardship and the fear of a second wave of covid-19. Bankruptcies are rising and unemployment, one broker has said, is three times the official level, at around 20%.

.

If the post-lockdown rich world suffers its own brand of the 90% economy, life will be hard

...

Many businesses will emerge from lockdown short of money, with strained balance-sheets and facing weak demand.

...

The longer the world has to endure a 90% economy, the less likely it is to snap back after the pandemic."

Trechos retirados de "Life after lockdowns"

Plano de reflexões

Ainda esta semana numa empresa começámos a preencher um Plano de Comunicação. Um documento que irá crescer ao longo do tempo, em função das necessidades que irão emergir tendo em conta diferentes propósitos e audiências.

Ontem li este artigo, "Four ways to reflect that help boost performance" onde encontrei esta interessante tabela:

Que reflexões são feitas na sua empresa? Com que propósito e com que participantes?

Nestes tempo após a 1ª vaga COVID-19 julgo tão importante aquele "Scanning the horizon"... e no entanto, tenho apanhado tantas surpresas negativas... venha ou não venha esmola da UE, os próximos tempos vão piorar antes de melhorar. E o que vejo? Gente confiando que o layoff os vai proteger da necessidade de se reconfigurarem. Gente que acha que isto de reflectir sobre o contexto é treta para a ISO 9001.

Fará sentido desenhar um Plano de Reflexões para a sua empresa?

Repugnante

Não saímos deste modo de vida... pedintes profissionais.

🤬😢

Modelos e decisões

“Models should not be judged by the sophistication of the mathematics – in itself neither good nor bad – but by the insights which that model provides into a particular problem that we are trying to solve.

...

Models are tools like those in the van of the professional plumber, which can be helpful in one context and irrelevant in others. As with the tools in the van, there may be several models which contribute to the solution of a specific problem. And there are times when there is no good model to explain what we see. But we still have to make decisions. So the test of a model is therefore whether it is useful in making the decisions which need to be made in government, business and finance, and in households, in a world of radical uncertainty.

The pursuit of practical knowledge which gives useful advice to policy-makers begins from the question ‘What is going on here?’ The plumber looks first for the origin of the leak. A doctor conducts a consultation by observing symptoms and taking readings until he or she can begin to formulate a diagnosis and prescribe a treatment. An engineer or architect begins by scoping the project, and a dentist makes an examination and assessment before recommending a course of action. All these approaches are distinct from the search for abstract knowledge of ‘the world as it really is’ which characterises the work of physicists and philosophers. But the crucial contribution of economics to the world is defined by its role as practical knowledge, not as scientific theory.”

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Metaphors

I am a visual guy, and sometimes I stumble across images that grab my attention in a way...

How many personal, commercial and political metaphors could we illustrate with this image?

Magnifique!!!

Thank you Yuval Robichek

"Being nimble is easier for a small structure "

“In the post-COVID-19 era, apart from those few sectors in which companies will benefit on average from strong tailwinds (most notably tech, health and wellness), the journey will be challenging and sometimes treacherous. For some, like entertainment, travel or hospitality, a return to a pre-pandemic environment is unimaginable in the foreseeable future (and maybe never in some cases…). For others, namely manufacturing or food, it is more about finding ways to adjust to the shock and capitalize on some new trends (like digital) to thrive in the post-pandemic era. Size also makes a difference. The difficulties tend to be greater for small businesses that, on average, operate on smaller cash reserves and thinner profit margins than large companies. Moving forward, most of them will be dealing with cost–revenue ratios that put them at a disadvantage compared to bigger rivals. But being small can offer some advantages in today’s world where flexibility and celerity can make all the difference in terms of adaptation. Being nimble is easier for a small structure than for an industrial behemoth.”

Trecho retirado de “COVID-19: The Great Reset” de Klaus Schwab.

"In the world as it is, we cope rather than optimise"

“the lesson of experience is that there is no single approach to financial markets which makes money or explains ‘what is going on here’, no single narrative of ‘the financial world as it really is’. There is a multiplicity of valid approaches, and the appropriate tools, model-based or narrative, are specific to context and to the skills and judgement of the investor. We can indeed benefit from the insights of both Thales of Miletus and Harry Markowitz, and learn from both of the contradictory narratives of the world of finance propagated by Gene Fama and Bob Shiller. But we must also recognise the limits to the insights we derive from their small-world models.

...

Radical uncertainty precludes optimising behaviour. In the world as it is, we cope rather than optimise.”

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Engenheiros sociais, decreto, cobardia e conversa da treta

Cada vez encontro mais "engenheiros sociais" que sonham com o after-pandemia para criar um mundo novo. Gente que me mete muito medo. Neste livro, por exemplo, ora encontro a defesa da tomada de medidas para salvar empregos, custe o que custar, como logo a seguir, poucas páginas depois encontro:

“The green economy spans a range of possibilities from greener energy to ecotourism to the circular economy. For example, shifting from the “take-make-dispose” approach to production and consumption to a model that is “restorative and regenerative by design” can preserve resources and minimize waste by using a product again when it reaches the end of its useful life, thus creating further value that can in turn generate economic benefits by contributing to innovation, job creation and, ultimately, growth. Companies and strategies that favour reparable products with longer lifespans (from phones and cars to fashion) that even offer free repairs (like Patagonia outdoor wear) and platforms for trading used products are all expanding fast.”

Agora, imaginem coragem no discurso para chegar junto dos empresários da moda em Portugal e dizer-lhes que o mundo em que foram criados tem de dar lugar a uma outra realidade por decreto.

No JdN de ontem lia:

"O líder do setor do vestuário e confeção considera que o Estado português deve “investir em salvar o emprego” nesta indústria, que corre o risco de perder um saber-fazer que é difícil de recuperar. 

...

Há uma mais-valia que o vestuário português tem a nível mundial. Temos uma indústria excelente, amiga do ambiente, um ecossistema do melhor que há. Sem o lay-off simplificado, com os termos que tinha ou até melhorados para não penalizar tanto a empresa, corremos o risco de perder este ecossistema e o saber-fazer, que é difícil de criar novamente. O Estado tem de fazer um plano agressivo para evitar o colapso das empresas e de investir na manutenção dos postos de trabalho nos próximos meses, até ao final do ano. Não é em equipamento; é em salvar o emprego."

Amiga do ambiente, nas assente no modelo “take-make-dispose”. 

Humildemente me confesso e assumo a preferência pela Via Negativa.

Recordar "Are you prepared to walk the talk?"

Trecho retirado de “COVID-19: The Great Reset” de Klaus Schwab.

Cuidado com o que desejas, pode ser que o obtenhas. Ou, como Karma is a bitch

Este postal de Agosto de 2019, ""The Great Sparrow Campaign" - gente perigosa", faz um apanhado daquilo a que se pode chamar: Cuidado com o que desejas, pode ser que o obtenhas. 

Há dias, enquanto conduzia, ouvi e tomei consciência dum trecho dos Coldplay:

"when you get what you want but not what you need"

Ontem no JdN apanhei:

"César Araújo propõe que 60% dos artigos consumidos sejam fabricados na Europa

...

Tudo tem de partir da consciência dos nossos governantes em Bruxelas. Não vale a pena só injetar dinheiro. A Europa tem de fazer um Plano Marshall e dizer que 60% dos produtos consumidos têm de ser manufaturados na Europa."

Isto é tão a conversa da APROLEP que até dói ...

Atentemos no que César Araújo dizia há meses:

"Vocacionada para a produção de vestuário para marcas da gama média-alta e luxo, a Calvelex exporta as cerca de 800 mil peças que fabrica anualmente para os quatro cantos do mundo, com enfoque especial na Europa e nos EUA.

...

Quais vão ser os principais mercados da Calvelex em 2018?

.

Vão ser toda a Europa, que é o nosso mercado doméstico, os EUA, o Canadá, a Coreia do Sul e o Japão."

Como é que um dirigente associativo no século XXI ainda vê a economia como um jogo de soma nula?

E se os países extra-europeus para onde exporta resolverem aplicar a receita que ele propõe para a Europa?

E não tem mais nada para dizer?

Volta e meia escrevo aqui no blogue sobre os líderes associativos e a sua importância.

Acredito que as associações deveriam ser mais pragmáticas e exigentes no momento de escolherem o seu líder. 

Recordo:

"Como é que os dirigentes associativos mais mediatizados costumam reagir perante a mudança? Defendendo o passado e anatemizando a mudança" (daqui)

"Qual o papel do presidente de uma associação? Não é também o de ajudar os associados a agarrar o touro pelos cornos? Não é também o de sugerir alternativas? Não é também o de ser vanguarda?" (daqui) 

"Já por várias vezes escrevi aqui no blogue sobre a importância das associações empresariais serem lideradas por gente optimista, gente que consegue subir mais alto e ver mais longe, gente que em vez de defender o passado, tem como prioridade abraçar o futuro, conquistar o futuro, criar o futuro... mais, deviam ser refinados batoteiros, gente que não espera pelo futuro,  antes aspira a criá-lo, a construí-lo, a influenciá-lo.

.

Já por várias vezes escrevi aqui no blogue sobre as direcções de associações empresariais que estão tão preocupadas com a salvação do passado que não conseguem sentir as oportunidades do futuro. Por isso, escrevo que são associações em que os associados individualmente estão muito à frente do pensamento dos dirigentes associativos." (daqui) 

"O espírito de um sector industrial é um espelho do ambiente que os seus líderes associativos criam!!!" (daqui)

Hoje, antes do almoço comecei a ler "Lojas guardam coleções para vender em 2021" e parei estarrecido depois de:

"o presidente da Associação das Indústrias de Vestuário e Confeção (ANIVEC) explica que as marcas estão a “atirar a coleção primavera/verão para o próximo ano”, por estarem neste momento “cheios de stock” e não terem maneira de o escoar a preços favoráveis para o negócio. César Araújo diz ao jornal que esta opção dos comerciantes “só têm o impacto de capital – e para muitos nem será grande porque arrastaram os pagamentos às fábricas para mais meses”."

E não tem mais nada para dizer? 

E o impacte disto no futuro dos associados do grupo que dirige? E o impacte disto nas vendas dos associados?

Um dia, será criada uma associação de empresários que fazem o by-pass ao país, uma associação de empresários que não pensam em recorrer a apoios do estado, uma associação que se orgulhe de ter como membros empresários que colocam à entrada das suas unidades de produção o aviso: "se for ministro não entre!" Nessa altura será muito mais importante estar atento ao contexto e decidir em função dele, será muito mais importante futurizar, criar cenários, pensar o depois de amanhã. Ainda não estamos nesse dia.

 

"Making choices"

"You cannot treat the whole market as one. The market has never been  homogeneous and is becoming increasingly less so. People and businesses differ in how they value  a product, how they value different product attributes and in their spending power. Marketing is about segmentation and targeting, find what is relevant and important to different segments and deliver a version they are willing to pay for.

most interesting to me are the regions outside the diagonal band. Notice the holes in top left and bottom right. Just because holes exist in a  segmentation strategy it does not mean it must be targeted. What would the price look like for these two segments? Are there sizable number of  customers in these two segments? If yes can AT&T target them with more versions without confusing the “diagonal” customers?  Do these holes open up opportunities for competitors to enter the market? If yes, why didn’t AT&T choose not to go after these segments? What do they know that competitors don’t?

.

If marketing is about segmentation and targeting, strategy is about making choices – choices about how to effectively apply limited resources to maximize profit."

Trechos retirados de "One word – Versions" 

A importância da estratégia de uma organização

Ao longo dos anos tenho referido aqui no blogue a importância da gestão das empresas para explicar a variabilidade num mesmo sector económico de um país. Eis mais uma referência sobre o tema, "Leadership Matters: When, How Much, and How?":

"In summary, our research shows the following:

New CEOs often cause a significant, sustained change in performance. The companies of the top 20% of CEOs outperformed their sector by 9 percentage points per year over the course of their tenure, controlling for other factors, whereas the companies of the bottom 20% underperformed by 11 points.

The spread of CEO impact varies by strategic context. The gap between the most and the least successful CEOs is up to 9 points wider in fast-growing, technology-driven businesses than in slower-growing, more-regulated contexts.

The CEO effect tends to decline with scale. The performance spread caused by the CEO effect is greater among smaller firms (driven largely by a higher potential upside), but a significant spread exists in companies of all sizes.

Some actions are associated with CEO success across nearly all contexts. Top-performing CEOs are more likely to take a long-term approach to strategy, accelerate M&A activity, increase their company’s ESG scores, and pay more attention to diversity."

E a implicação disto, é a importância da estratégia de uma organização para os seus resultados, o.mais do que tudo o resto.

Disciplinar a inovação?

Quantas vezes me deparo com empresas que se queixam de que lançam muitos produtos novos, gastam muitos recursos, mas vêem poucos resultados. Eis uma ideia que pode ser aproveitada por empresas que precisam de disciplinar a sua inovação: "Innovation Project Scorecard: Evidence Trumps Opinion":

"Teams need to show hard evidence that a market exists and customers are interested (i.e. desirability), that the required infrastructure can be built and managed (i.e. feasibility), and evidence that the projected revenues and profits are not a fantasy (i.e. viability)."

Esta ferramenta pode ser adapatada a empresas em sectores tradicionais. 

Torrar dinheiro de contribuintes

E quando o empreendedor é o estado... a decidir com o dinheiro dos bolsos dos contribuintes... estão a ver o perigo?

"Num país que dispõe já de 7.000 MW de potências intermitentes com FIT para um consumo de apenas 3.900 MW no vazio, o hidrogénio é a nova desculpa para se instalarem mais 2.000 MW de novas potências solares intermitentes com FIT. É o mundo ao contrário!

Em vez de se estancar o problema não atribuindo mais FIT a potências intermitentes, e fazendo com que o mercado se ajuste às disponibilidades de eletricidade aos melhores preços, promovem-se ainda mais potencias intermitentes com FIT para se resolver o problema das FIT através do hidrogénio.

...

Mesmo não estando disponível nenhuma tecnologia competitiva para produzir hidrogénio através da eletrólise da água, o documento que esteve em consulta pública aponta desde já para um investimento de 7.000 milhões de euros (!!!), e numa primeira fase este hidrogénio destinar-se-á exclusivamente ao mercado interno." (fonte)

Pois:

“One of us was shown a paper written by a well-known macroeconomist with considerable experience in central banks and finance ministries. The model showed that an inflation objective would be met, given the model, if the central bank announced today what interest rates would be at different dates for several years ahead. 25 The author of the paper was asked ‘So what insight do we gain from this model?’ The answer was that the numbers derived from the model should be the policy. That answer begins to make sense only if the economist believed that his model described ‘the world as it really is’. But a small-world model does not do that; its value lies in framing a problem to provide insights into the large-world problem facing the policy-maker and not in the pretence that it can provide precise quantitative guidance. You cannot derive a probability or a forecast or a policy recommendation from a model; the probability is meaningful, the forecast accurate or the policy recommendation well founded only within the context of the model .

Other disciplines seem more alive to this issue. The bridge builder or the aeronautics engineer, dealing with a much more firmly established body of knowledge, will wisely be sceptical of a quantitative answer which is not consistent with his or her prior experience. And our own experience in economics is that the most common explanation of a surprising result is that someone has made an “error. In finance, economics and business, models never describe ‘the world as it really is’. Informed judgement will always be required in understanding and interpreting the output of a model and in using it in any large-world situation.”

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Só escapa a agricultura

Eis o conjunto de sectores económicos que acompanho há vários anos e que uso para perceber como vão as PME e alguns incumbentes grandes.

Impressionante a evolução das exportações de peixe, -30% (não costumo incluir na tabela que analiso).

Um retrato que ilustra um novo "ano de 2009"

Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas pornográficas

Em Julho de 2011 escrevi aqui:

"Os mercados não se regem por leis imortais, imutáveis, talhadas na pedra. Os mercados não existem, emergem, vão emergindo da relação entre os intervenientes. Mentes conservadoras podem crer que os mercados são como os reagentes de uma reacção química e que o tempo não os influencia, por mais vezes que se repita a experiência. Tolos!!! Os mercados são seres vivos que aprendem e desaprendem não podendo ser encarcerados numa lógica newtoniana"

Ontem, durante a caminhada matinal encontrei:

"And although Newtonian mechanics is not a description of ‘the world as it really is’, it is extremely useful in a wide variety of situations. It makes sense to live our lives under the assumption that physical laws hold and do not change, but it does not make sense to live our lives under the assumption that the world of human affairs is stationary."

Em Dezembro passado escrevi:

"Estão a ver aqueles que acreditam que os académicos, ou os políticos sabem quais as decisões a tomar para gerir uma empresa?

...

O salto sem rede! O abandono da navegação de cabotagem! Nadar na zona sem pé! Apostar no optimismo não documentado. Ah! "Following the bliss"."

Na mesma caminhada matinal encontrei:

"Although most profit opportunities have been taken, it is those that have not been taken which provide rewards to entrepreneurs and which drive innovation in technology and business practice. Paradoxically, the desire of the Chicago School to treat the economy as if markets were perfectly competitive [Moi ici: Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas pornográficas] left it blind to the earlier Chicago insight which emphasised the capacity for innovation arising from the search for profit in an uncertain and constantly changing environment. The innovative success of a market economy does not result from individuals or firms trying to ‘optimise’ but from their attempts by trial and error to navigate a world of radical uncertainty. In practice, successful people work out how to cope with and manage uncertainty, not how to optimise."

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Relevance, not quantity

You don't need to have a huge list of internal and external issues in the context analysis of your quality management system. You need to have a list of truly relevant issues. That is how ISO 9001:2015 uses the word determine, not identify.

Example from "Health and safety, environment and quality audits: a risk-based approach" from Stephen Asbury.

"stand for something"

Mais uma mensagem de Seth Godin:

"Most of the brands we truly care about stand for something. And the thing they stand for is unlikely to be, “whatever you want, we have it.” It’s also unlikely to be, “you can choose anyone and we’re anyone.”

.

A meaningful specific can’t possibly please everyone. That’s the deal."

E a sua empresa... recorde Justin Bieber.

 

Trecho retirado de "“It might not be for you”" 

Pivoting

Um artigo sobre aquilo que é apanágio das organizações que vivem do seu esforço e não podem contar com amigos em lugares de poder para lhes facilitar a vida, "How Businesses Have Successfully Pivoted During the Pandemic":

"The reality of how companies are dealing with the crisis and preparing for the recovery tells a very different story, one of pivoting to business models conducive to short-term survival along with long-term resilience and growth. Pivoting is a lateral move that creates enough value for the customer and the firm to share."

An uncomfortable feeling

When you are auditing how an organization has treated its context analysis according to ISO 9001:2015,  you may conclude that the organization has answered to all requeriments and yet... feel some how uncomfortable with the exercise. An organization may tick all requirements and yet miss the most important.

I found this passage that I think applies to this feeling:

"As you will see, auditing is concerned with seeking to provide a level of confirmation (or assurance) that an organization has addressed reasonably foreseeable significant risks to its operations and to the achievement of its objectives with a suitable framework (or series of interconnected frameworks) for internal control.

...

Along with providing assurance for the present, auditing should also provide a future focused view of the suitability of this control framework(s) for the changing business environments of the months and years ahead. Information about the future is generally much more valuable to managers than information about the present or the past."

Sometimes it is not easy to communicate that feeling to the organization. You are an auditor not a consultant, and it is not easy to judge the strategic thinking skills of a top management team. 

Sometimes those that are not immersed in a specific situation, that don't live it daily are more aware of the background trends.

 

Passage from "Health and safety, environment and quality audits: a risk-based approach" from Stephen Asbury.

 

Não esqueçam dos aumentos da função pública para o ano

Quando a nossa visão pessimista 

é ultrapassada pelas previsões de outros mais institucionais:

O tal slogan parvo, o mais parvo de sempre.

Se o PIB cair 17% e se a despesa do estado é rígida, e se o estado já consumia 50% do PIB em 2019, como fica o peso do estado no PIB? Como fica o défice? Não esqueçam dos aumentos da função pública para o ano.

Comentadores e prognósticos

Uma destas noites estava a jantar e por azar a televisão estava ligada na RTP1. Então, aparece um comentador que eu julgava já estar reformado, Nicolau Santos.

Foi dele que me lembrei esta manhã ao ler:

"Few readers will be surprised that Tetlock learnt from his initial work that the forecasters in his sample were not very good; little better than a chimpanzee throwing darts. What is, perhaps, most surprising is that he found that the principal factor differentiating the good from the bad was how well known the forecaster was. The more prominent the individual concerned, the more often the forecaster is reported by the media, the more frequently consulted by politicians and business leaders, the less credence should be placed on that individual’s prognostications.

...

We both have the experience of dealing with researchers for radio and television programmes: if you profess an opinion that is unambiguous and – for preference – extreme, a car will be on its way to take you to the studio; if you suggest that the issue is complicated, they will thank you for your advice and offer to ring you back. They rarely do. People understandably like clear opinions but the truth is that many issues inescapably involve saying ‘on the one hand, but on the other’."

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King 

Um país de amadores

Ontem no jornal Público um artigo a puxar ao chauvinismo, "Empresas espanholas estão a assegurar 70% do mercado das obras públicas em Portugal".

Lembrei-me logo das ruinas ao lado do tanque de água para o gado, enquanto dançava o can-can:

As ruinas que mencionei neste postal e o esquema associado:

O artigo do Público começa assim:

"A tendência começou na época da troika, mas tem também sido validada pelo Tribunal de Contas: na altura de avaliar uma proposta de obra pública, as entidades adjudicantes devem dar predominância aos critérios objectivos, e impedir que os aspectos subjectivos tenham grande valor, de forma a aumentar a transparência e a evitar a corrupção. O critério preço será sempre um dos mais objectivos, pelo que a forma como ele é determinado é muito relevante.

...

A forma como o critério preço está a pesar nos concursos (no caso do último lançado pela Metro do Porto, o factor preço pesa 80% na análise das propostas) e aquilo que consideram ser uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português regressa agora ao topo das preocupações das empresas portuguesas, que estão a ter dificuldades em ganhar os concursos."

Que conversa mais parola esta de "uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português". Isto é o mesmo que as empresas do litoral fizeram às empresas do interior. Quando o negócio é preço ganha quem tiver maior dimensão, menores custos unitários, o resto é treta.

É assim que se faz a consolidação num sector de actividade. As empresas que competem pelo preço e que crescem mais depressa são as mais eficientes e isso, como ilustra o esquema acima, gera uma avalanche de mais vitórias para os vencedores, que vão crescendo cada vez mais e ficando cada vez mais competitivos.

Pensar que é "uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português" é a mesma reacção parola de achar que os ingleses deviam ter cedido na lista em nome da mais velha aliança. 

Um país parolo.

"get out the squeeze box"

Um artigo para nos fazer pensar nas mudanças que estão em curso nestes tempos pós-Covid, "Why the crisis marks the end of the road for longstanding business lines":

"Segway will produce the last of the two-wheeled personal transporters after which the company was named. 

...

Its manufacturer now generates far more revenue from kick-scooters, e-skates and other “micro-mobility” products that threaten pedestrians’ pavement stroll.

...

Olympus agreed last month to sell its camera division, part of the group since 1936, following three consecutive years of operating losses. In May, General Electric finally announced the sale of its lightbulb business, which traced its history back to Thomas Edison’s invention. 

...

The onset of lockdown forced companies to take quick decisions, and accelerate pending changes. In the same way, as businesses enter a lengthier, but no less brutal, period of uncertainty, their owners, directors and executives are unlocking strategic changes that might otherwise have become bogged down by sentiment or inertia.[Moi ici: Ao ler isto fiquei a pensar nisto que li no mesmo número do FT de ontem "Spain signals furlough extension into 2021 for worst hit sectors". Quando não se é encostado às cordas não se faz o soul searching que leva a decisões corajosas. A borboleta que é ajudada a sair do casulo nunca consegue levantar voo] 

The buzzword, as ever, is focus. As I have noted before, it can be dangerous to sweep away old habits hastily, but numerous chief executives attest that the crisis is stripping away resistance to big corporate decisions.[Moi ici: O artigo continua com a Lixil, a empresa do CEO que falou do lockdown como a disguised blessing, continua com a BP e a ABB]

...

proceed in a “fact-based and unemotional manner”. If he does, it seems inevitable that ABB will put some of its “heritage brands” on the block in due course.

Plenty of companies now face questions of survival. Some may be forced into fire sales of assets. Those who are likely to succeed, though, will simply be speeding up a process of constant, cold-eyed assessment of their assets that was under way well before the pandemic incinerated their strategy plans.

Such companies, whether they realise it or not, are disciples of Peter Drucker’s philosophy of “systematic abandonment”, which the management thinker considered to be a prerequisite for future growth. Every two or three years, Drucker advised, executives should ask themselves: “If we did not already produce this product line or did not already serve this market, would we now, knowing what we know now, go into it?”

...

[Moi ici: E dedicado aos não fanáticos, a maioria na qual não me incluo, que apoiam o ministro Pedro Nuno Santos na aquisição da TAP por questões ideológico-sentimentais, este último trecho] Knowing what we know now, clinging on to underperforming businesses merely for emotional or historical reasons is unwise. It is time for executives to get out the squeeze box and start playing."

Sem fazer escolhas

Encontrei estes gráficos no LinkedIn, já não sei onde em concreto:

Gente com dinheiro e gente com mais de 55 anos.

Qual é mesmo o cliente-alvo dos ginásios? 

Por outro lado:

Estratégia é isto, olhar para um universo de potenciais clientes e fazer escolhas, para concentrar o foco:

A maioria há-de querer tudo para todos e tentar servir todos e ninguém.

"rethink your product mix and pricing strategies"

"As these initiatives suggest, you’ll want to rethink your product mix and pricing strategies in response to shifting customer needs. Purchasing behavior changes dramatically in a recession. Consumers increasingly opt for lowerpriced alternatives to their usual purchases, trading down to buy private label products or to shop at discount retailers. Although some consumers will continue to trade up, they’ll do so in smaller numbers and in fewer categories. ... Whatever your business, determine how the needs, preferences, and spending patterns of your customers, whether consumer or corporate, are affected by the economic climate. For example, careful segmentation may reveal products primarily purchased by people still willing to pay full price. Use that intelligence to inform product portfolio and investment choices."

Que alterações é preciso fazer à gama de produtos da sua empresa? E ao pricing?

Trechos retirados de "Seize Advantage in a Downturn" de David Rhodes e Daniel Stelter.

Sempre do lado do problema, nunca da solução

"Seek advantage in adversity. Don’t merely endeavor to mitigate risk or damage or restore what was; rather, aim to create advantage in adversity by effectively adjusting to new realities.

Look forward. In the short run, a crisis many appear tactical and operational, but on longer timescales, new needs and the incapacitation of competitors create opportunities. Crises can also be the best pretext for accelerating long-term transformational change. One of the key roles for leaders is therefore to shift an organization’s time horizons outward."

Há tempos tive conhecimento que esta empresa, Chegg.com, estava a ter um boom à custa do covid-19 e das quarentenas. Recordei ter visto num telejornal uma representante das empresas que dão explicações a lamentar a desgraça que está a ser este ano por causa do covid-19. Pois, um país de coitadinhos, sempre à caça de mais um apoio. Incapazes de fazer um esforço para ver como virar a mesa a favor, gente como o Mário Nogueira, estão sempre do lado do problema, nunca da solução.

Trechos retirados de "A Guide to Building a More Resilient Business"

"If they can’t sell a price increase I don’t want them on my team"

Tanto por fazer a este nível nas empresas portuguesas.

"The best thing a salesperson can sell is a price increase. Pricing is so important – in fact, it is the most important profit lever. Pricing is one of the most fundamental aspects of any business – every company has to set prices for its products and services. If the world was a rational place, pricing management would be a core competence of every firm, but in reality it almost never is.

The beauty of pricing, and price increases in particular, for sales leaders is that it all drops straight through to the bottom line. As one recently remarked to me about her salesforce, “If they can’t sell a price increase I don’t want them on my team."

At the same time, we know that many salespeople hate even the thought of price-related customer conversations, let alone price increases."

Trecho retirado de "Can You Sell a Price Rise?" 

Ressignificar as experiências

Há tempos uma colega falou-me nesta palavra "ressignificar":

"Viver é estar sujeito a passar por momentos bons e ruins, que nem sempre – ou quase nunca – estão sob nosso controle.
No entanto, como vamos reagir a determinadas circunstâncias é uma escolha. Cabe a você decidir se uma crise existencial, por exemplo, vai deixar ensinamentos ou vai servir apenas para lamentações e vitimizações.
...
por mais difícil que a realidade pareça, sempre há uma alternativa.
...
Nos dualismos da vida, a ressignificação é o que nos faz olhar para o lado bom quando a impressão é que só existem coisas ruins para extrair.
Copo meio cheio ou meio vazio?
Preferir sempre olhar pelo lado positivo e priorizar o otimismo ao pessimismo é escolher a ressignificação.
Mas há outros benefícios que buscar outro significado para as nossas experiências pode ter."

Trechos retirados de "Ressignificar: significado, como fazer e benefícios"

"When we talk about resignifying one’s experiences, we’re talking about changing their meaning and seeing them from a new perspective, one that’s less distressing and exhausting.
...
Each of your experiences is associated with an emotion. And the meaning you attribute to each experience will always be tied to it. Therefore, giving it another meaning is going to make you focus on a different emotion.
...
Resignifying former experiences is essential for transformation. It’s your choice to either transform or remain stagnant and unable to fly."

Trechos retirados de "Resignifying Experiences is Essential for Change"

Concentrar a energia na acção

Há pessoas, há empresas e há situações em que parecem helicópteros:

Até fazem barulho, até sentem os desafios no ar, até identificam os ingredientes do problema, até se antecipam ao problema, mas nunca mais se decidem, não saem do sítio, pairam e pairam e pairam.

Esta semana analisei a listagem dos factores que uma empresa inclui na sua tabela SWOT.

É claro que encontrei o habitual rol de factores da treta que sempre povoam estas listas, mas também encontrei coisas originais e alavancáveis. Engraçado como às vezes temos uma preocupação enorme em fazer uma lista enorme, quando com apenas meia-dúzia de factores críticos pode-se construir qualquer coisa com sentido.

Se conjugarmos Fraquezas e Ameaças visualizamos escrito no papel uma descrição do inferno em que o mercado interno se vai transformar.  

Muita gente tem dificuldade em lidar com o abstracto, mas quando a ideia aparece escrita numa folha de papel, quando se torna em algo de concreto, normalmente impele à acção.

Se conjugarmos Forças e Oportunidades visualizamos uma janela de oportunidade para sair do inferno.

Isto faz-me recuar a Dezembro de 1980 quando descobri o poder de ter uma agenda diária. Os níveis de ansiedade diminuem e concentramos a energia na acção.

"Lives of quiet desperation"

Esta manhã enquanto conduzia emergiu na minha mente a frase de Thoreau:

"Lives of quiet desperation. 

What is called resignation is confirmed desperation" 

Há cerca de quinze dias escrevi no Twitter:

Ontem passei o dia todo fechado numa empresa. Saí já depois das 19h e enquanto conduzia dei comigo a ouvir um programa na Rádio Renascença onde os comentadores do regime alinhavam com o governo e diziam amém a duas nacionalizações. Nem uma voz contra, nem uma voz a desdizer a narrativa oficial sobre a EFACEC ou sobre a TAP.

Mais dinheiro impostado aos contribuintes torrado em delírios da corte lisboeta. Mais pedras no saco às costas das empresas que têm de fazer corridas com empresas de outros países com governos menos atreitos a orgias socialistas.

Isto nunca vai ter fim, este país nem com 5 troikas vai mudar. Ingenuidade pensar que a UE nos ia proteger...

A 1 de Setembro de 2007 no Expresso, Daniel Bessa escreveu:

"... faltou sempre o dinheiro que o "Portugal profundo" preferiu gastar na "ajuda" a "empresas em situação económica difícil"...

"there is no single way to be rational"

"For an individual, choosing the strategy most likely to succeed maximises expected winnings. But a group made up of such optimising individuals is eventually wiped out by infrequent calamities. As a result, the groups whose genes come to dominate are those who apply ‘mixed strategies’, varying their habitat. The American political scientist James Scott describes the reality of this in the history of ‘scientific’ forestry. Planting the ‘best’ trees led to monocultures which were in due course wiped out by previously unknown parasites. The Irish potato blight was able to devastate that country’s agriculture – leading to at least a million deaths from disease and starvation and to substantial and prolonged emigration from the island – because the potato had been identified as the optimal crop for that country’s conditions and so the country’s food production was poorly diversified. Humans are all better off because we are all different, and because there is no single way to be rational; we give thanks for our current state to St Francis and Oscar Wilde and Steve Jobs and to millions of people who became skilled at their own specialist but routine tasks.”

Recordar Valikangas e "Shit Happens!"

 

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King 

A conspiração continua

"A taxa de desemprego deverá ter diminuído para 5,5% em maio, segundo a estimativa rápida publicada pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) esta quarta-feira. Os dados finais do desemprego de abril mostram que a taxa de desemprego se situou em 6,3%, o mesmo valor provisório que o INE já tinha divulgado no início de junho.

...

A população desempregada terá situado-se em 267,9 mil pessoas, uma diminuição de 16%, ou 50,9 mil pessoas, em comparação com o mês anterior, e de 19,2% ou 63,7 mil pessoas, face a três meses antes. Em comparação com o período homólogo de 2019, a população desempregada caiu 21,9%, o equivalente a 75,2 mil pessoas."

Que dizer destes indicadores e das suas definições...

Os dirigentes do INE não têm vergonha de publicar estes números?

Recordo "A teoria da conspiração exposta"

Trechos retirados de "Desemprego desce para 5,5%, mas número de inativos aumentou para 14,2%"

Empresas estratégicas

Este artigo, "So, You've No Room to Grow... or Have You?", é simplesmente delicioso.

Nestes tempos de torrefacção de impostos para proteger empresas supostamente estratégicas o que dizer de:

"#5 “When you say ‘strategic’ account, I hear ‘loss-making’ account” (Gamblers’ fallacy)

.

I am afraid this one is one of my own quotes, borne out of experience. When looking for outliers within a client’s customer portfolio, a few blue-chip names often show up with both low revenues and margins. The usual explanation given for this is that it is a “strategic account”, often a firm that has had the potential to be a key account but for some reason is not. The assumption is that, if we keep trying, the bad luck will eventually reverse. To try to encourage growth, increasingly better offers are put on the table. If such a client ever were to grow to the size of a key account though, it would then expect even bigger discounts and so the account would end up underwater, if it is not already. The reality is usually that the service level from a competitor is superior, that switching costs are prohibitively high and/or that the client is happy to dual-source to keep their primary supplier on its toes. At some point it will be worth directing your energies elsewhere."

"Turn, turn, turn"

No WSJ da passada segunda-feira li "How to Slay a Tech Giant (Apple)":

"They had 50% of the computer industry’s revenue but 90% of its profits. They used FUD—fear,  uncertainty and doubt—to freeze out competitors. But IBM was vulnerable. A loose horizontal confederation threatened its power: Intel processors, Microsoft’s operating system, Western Digital hard drives and Compaq hardware, along with Lotus, Adobe and Microsoft applications, added up to a “Virtual IBM” and eventually toppled the giant. The same thing happened in the late 1990s with AT&T. A horizontal internet of network equipment, browsers and websites created a Virtual AT&T and toppled the vertically integrated telecom.

...

Apple has become IBM, it’s become AT&T—a vertical giant waiting for a future David to come along with a horizontal slingshot. 

.

If I were an investment banker today (Lord help me) I’d be running around pitching a Virtual Apple. Neutralize its strengths and then attack new markets.

...

Unit sales of iPhones and iPad peaked years ago. As the company runs out of new customers, growth is coming from adjacent markets like watches and earbuds, and from online services. And now the Justice Department is investigating its app store for abuse.

...

Remember, IBM didn’t fail overnight—it took decades. But its growth rolled over and the stock market eventually figured that out and cut off access to cheap capital."

Recordar "Turn, turn, turn" 

A rapidez é fundamental

Já por aqui escrevi várias vezes sobre o imperativo da urgência de actuação nestes tempos. Por isso, critiquei o prolongamento do lay-off. Por isso, fiquei doente ao perceber que as empresas têxteis andaram distraídas a brincar às máscaras. Até me apetece chorar só de voltar a pensar nisto. 

Nos trechos que se seguem, retirados de "Coronavirus: Nine in Ten Companies Need to Act Now!" acaba-se assim:

"Takeaway: Commercial agility is key

We expect most companies to experience the demand extremes and the stresses of at least two of these scenarios in the next 18-24 months, perhaps even simultaneously depending on how the pandemic progresses in different markets around the world.  Whether a company or industry can move to a better position, or defend a desirable one, will come down to their commercial agility. This is the ability to make resilient offer design, sales, cost management and pricing decisions with unprecedented speed and flexibility – over and over again – until some form of equilibrium returns to their market.

In this crisis, you have to be faster. You have to reduce your capacity faster, but you also have to bring it up faster. You need to defend the top line and find growth earlier than later."

Achei interessante a abordagem sobre a procura vs a prateleira:

"We don’t see the point in crystal balling whether the market will go up or down by one, two, three, four, or five percent. We can’t predict the exact scenario for the rest of the year or tell you whether things will brighten up in seven, eight, or 15 months. Instead, what we are most interested in is what needs to change. How are customer needs evolving and how do companies need to respond in terms of their sales, marketing, and pricing approach?  We look at demand, not just in terms of volume swings, but also whether behavioral changes in customers will be permanent, and how to react to them. 

...

If your industry belongs to the nine in ten outside of the thriving category, then you need to take action now!"

É claro que isto é uma simplificação. Aposto que os materiais de construção DIY estão a ter um desempenho melhor que o resto do sector.