sábado, julho 18, 2020

Modelos e decisões

Models should not be judged by the sophistication of the mathematics – in itself neither good nor bad – but by the insights which that model provides into a particular problem that we are trying to solve.
Models are tools like those in the van of the professional plumber, which can be helpful in one context and irrelevant in others. As with the tools in the van, there may be several models which contribute to the solution of a specific problem. And there are times when there is no good model to explain what we see. But we still have to make decisions. So the test of a model is therefore whether it is useful in making the decisions which need to be made in government, business and finance, and in households, in a world of radical uncertainty.
The pursuit of practical knowledge which gives useful advice to policy-makers begins from the question ‘What is going on here?’ The plumber looks first for the origin of the leak. A doctor conducts a consultation by observing symptoms and taking readings until he or she can begin to formulate a diagnosis and prescribe a treatment. An engineer or architect begins by scoping the project, and a dentist makes an examination and assessment before recommending a course of action. All these approaches are distinct from the search for abstract knowledge of ‘the world as it really is’ which characterises the work of physicists and philosophers. But the crucial contribution of economics to the world is defined by its role as practical knowledge, not as scientific theory.”
Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

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