Suil era a marca do leite que se bebia em São João da Madeira em 1969.
- A receita deste blogue (parte I e parte II) (Julho de 2013)
- O problema é a procura, não é a oferta (parte V) (Maio de 2014)
"Há dois dias, no Twitter, li o desabafo de Carlos Fernandes, responsável numa cadeia de restauração: “O meu dia de trabalho: Andar de loja em loja a informar as pessoas que não vai ser renovado o contrato ou demitir quem se encontra no período experimental, tudo devido ao coronavírus. As quebras nas vendas estão nos 70%. Puta de sorte”. Explicou que há lojas com quebras de vendas de 90% porque os centros comerciais começaram a ficar vazios e os clientes não aparecem."Estas são as primeiras peças do dominó.
"Imagine que ocorre um ataque terrorista num centro comercial em França. O que vai acontecer ao consumo nas lojas dos seus clientes?"Se os seus clientes não venderem, vocês não vão vender...
"E daqui por menos de duas semanas, quando chegar o momento de pagar ordenados, muitas empresas vão ver-se impedidas de o fazer porque não há dinheiro. Em muitos sectores do consumo, em que a quebra da procura foi quase instantânea e em que a tesouraria vive dos fluxos de caixa de curtíssimo prazo, esse drama vai ocorrer.Entretanto em "Estado de alarma: autónomos y empresas ante el colapso" (onde está Espanha substituir por Portugal):
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Previsivelmente, a economia sairá desta crise com um nível maior de desemprego do que o que tínhamos no início do ano e haverá muitas empresas que não vão sobreviver.
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Porque não eram viáveis? Não, aqui não há lugar a lógicas shumpeterianas de destruição criativa. Há empresas que não sobrevivem porque não estão preparadas – nem têm de estar – para fechar portas durante dois ou três meses, deixarem de ter qualquer receita – ou verem as receitas reduzidas a 10% ou 20% do normal – e ainda assim sobreviverem suportando custos fixos que se mantêm: rendas e alugueres, salários, obrigações contratuais, juros, etc.
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Uma crise como esta nada nos diz sobre a viabilidade e competitividade de cada empresa. Quanto muito, pode dizer-nos sobre a folga de tesouraria de cada uma mas isso é outra coisa."
"Que el Gobierno se agarre desesperadamente a la máquina de expoliar en medio de un shock epidémico que puede generar una recesión es, cuando menos indignante.
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Para la mayoría de pequeñas empresas y autónomos de España un mes de cierre es una ruina. Dos meses es una catástrofe que lleva a quiebras y despidos.
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En España, el capital circulante mata más empresas que el Gobierno, pero cuando se juntan los dos poniendo zancadillas, entramos en crisis.
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¿Qué es muerte por capital circulante? Los ingresos se desploman, los que te pagan lo hacen, pero mucho más tarde y, sin embargo, los costes fijos e impuestos aumentan y se acumulan. La mayoría de las empresas en España tienen muy poca liquidez.
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Si, encima, el Gobierno decide previamente debilitar el tejido empresarial y el empleo, como ha ocurrido, las empresas se enfrentan a un shock epidémico tras un shock endémico, al virus del intervencionismo se le ha añadido el virus sanitario."
A Irlanda meteu o país todo de baixa paga. Desta forma tiraram a pressão toda as empresas para continuarem a laborar. Assim não precisam de pagar salários e ficam todos muito mais seguros. E como? Têm reservas, fruto de políticas liberais. A diferença que faz um país bem gerido. https://t.co/4JOPSSkkGP— Bruno Figueiredo (@BrunoFigueiredo) March 15, 2020
"For fashion’s supply chain to come undone, sometimes all it takes is a missing zip.O artigo deve ser lido até ao fim, por quem está no sector, uma vez que refere várias propostas, como, por exemplo, atrasar o começo da próxima época de saldos.
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“We had a whole shipment ready but there were no boxes to put clothing in,” said Ms Smilovic, whose company sources its fabric in northern Italy and manufactures much of its clothing in China, both heavily disrupted by the deadly coronavirus outbreak. “Material is not being made in northern Italy right now. Zippers are in short supply.”
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The $2.5tn global fashion industry is dominated by huge companies such as €200bn-LVMH but most designers are smaller businesses that supply department stores.
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It is these independent designers that are facing a cash flow crisis as supply chain delays and reduced demand due to the coronavirus outbreak lead stores to cut or refuse orders. Some are now rethinking their supply chains and dependence on China
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Around the world, less established designers, who rely almost entirely on wholesale partners for revenue, face an uncertain future.
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Many retailers have contracts — particularly with young or independent designers whose collections are seen as riskier bets — that allow them to refuse payment if orders do not arrive within a 30-day period. Some may still accept the goods, but only on a consignment basis, or seek discounts.
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This is creating a cash crisis for young designers, many of whom have just splashed out £80,000 or more on a fashion show, and must pay factories to produce both their pre-autumn ranges and the autumn/winter 2020 collections they have just shown at fashion week."
Bóom... vamos ter calma e serenidade porque a seguir ao Covi-19 vem o Troika-2— Marcelo, o afectado (@AfectadoMarcelo) March 13, 2020
"O coronavírus vai ser o bode expiatório de quem não soube preparar uma economia para os maus momentos. Os maus momentos ocorrem sempre! Não são uma questão de "se", mas uma questão de "quando". Não-fragilistas sabem que algures haverá turbulência. Por isso, em vez de criar situações fail-safe, preparam situações safe-fail. Recordar Alicia Juarrero - "-THERE WILL BE TURBULENCE!" por isso, safe-fail (Maio de 2015).
"Stability ends of up getting killed by the next hurricane, the next pest, the next competitor, the next predator, ....""
"“What can our company do to survive the downturn?” I’m sorry, but the real answer is, “Not a lot.”Já agora, recordo algo que escrevi em Novembro passado em "O exemplo da Victorinox":
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The market is Darwinian: the strongest ones survive. And an economic downturn is like winter in Alaska; many animals can live a happy life in Alaska all through spring, summer, and fall, but when winter comes, it’s not a great place to be. It’s a much tougher environment — and only the fittest survive.
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If you’re not very strong, if you haven’t accumulated much body fat or haven’t developed the ability to hibernate, I am afraid it is going to be tough for you, too. “But what can I do to become stronger? Get thicker skin? It’s getting a bit cold here!” you might cry. Well, I am sorry (again), but winter in Alaska is not a great time to try and become stronger. It is a tiny little bit late for that...
First, we see quite a lot of firms display what we in management academia call “threat-rigidity effects.” When under threat, facing a shortfall in performance, firms are inclined to more narrowly and firmly focus on the one thing they do well (e.g. their core product or service), stop doing other things, and become more hierarchical and top-down in terms of management control. [Moi ici: Útil para as empresas de calçado reflectirem, depois do que escrevi na Parte IX]
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Unfortunately, this often makes things worse, or at least prevents you from coming up with any solutions.
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What firms are better off doing, is opening up; exploring new sources of potential revenue and experimenting with bottom-up processes to generate such ideas and innovations."
"Um mundo saudável não cresce sempre, sempre tem o seu Ragnarök, que vem podar os exagerados, os exuberantes, e premiar os mais preparados, para iniciar um novo nível do jogo.BTW, lembrem-se da cena no filme Armageddon: o cenário é a superfície do meteorito, a personagem desempenhada por Buscemi (Rockhound) está presa, em pânico e a gritar parvoíces, enquanto os outros continuam a fazer o seu trabalho. Pense nas oportunidades que uma situação como esta pode trazer?
Os que têm o locus de controlo no exterior pedem ajuda aos governos, culpam os chineses, ou os alemães, ou o Trump. Viveram e governaram como se a tempestade não estivesse no horizonte das possibilidades. Comportam-se como as salamandras no meio da tempestade. Quando a tempestade chega, porque ela sempre acaba por chegar, a culpa é sempre dos outros, quer dos Passos, quer das Merkl desta vida."
Bom para perceber os desafios que aí vêm...We're excited to announce the latest update to our Atlas of Economic Complexity (@Atlas_Facts), which brings new & improved navigation to the Explore panel & integrates elements from the #CountryProfiles. https://t.co/L6OUuolp3U @ricardo_hausman— Harvard's Growth Lab (@HarvardGrwthLab) March 12, 2020
"Uma start-up não é uma réplica em escala reduzida de uma empresa. Uma start-up é uma experiência. Os empreendedores têm uma ideia que nunca foi testada no mercado. Essa ideia tem clientes? Quais? Onde estão? Essa ideia materializa-se em que tipo de produto ou serviço?
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Qualquer start-up, numa fase inicial, está em modo "search", pesquisando sucessivas hipóteses de clientes e produto. Nesta fase o "fail often, fail well, fail fast" é fundamental: testar hipóteses sobre a combinação clientes-produto e descartar rapidamente as que não funcionam, o que apelidam de "pivoting".
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Uma vez validada a hipótese clientes + "produto mínimo viável" (esta é outra história) termina a fase de "search" e começa a fase de "execution". Nessa nova fase não convém falhar e colocar o erro, a falha num altar, numa empresa que está na fase de execução é uma forma excelente de doirar a pílula e enganar os empresários.
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A fase em que o erro é inevitável é uma fase onde se gasta pouco dinheiro, onde ainda se está em testes, onde ainda as coisas estão coladas com fita-cola e não existe produção em série."
"When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view their decisions and choices simply as the consequences of first-order thinking because we can inadvertently create serious problems. Before changing anything, we should wonder whether they were using second-order thinking. Their reasons for making certain choices might be more complex than they seem at first. It’s best to assume they knew things we don’t or had experience we can’t fathom, so we don’t go for quick fixes and end up making things worse."Este trecho que se segue fez-me recordar "Most thinking stops at stage one":
"Second-order thinking is the practice of not just considering the consequences of our decisions but also the consequences of those consequences. Everyone can manage first-order thinking, which is just considering the immediate anticipated result of an action. It’s simple and quick, usually requiring little effort. By comparison, second-order thinking is more complex and time-consuming. The fact that it is difficult and unusual is what makes the ability to do it such a powerful advantage."Na última Terça-feira vimos as imagens do primeiro-ministro holandês fazer um discurso sobre novos comportamentos e, depois, o seu lado "fast" actuou e instintivamente fez o contrário do que tinha acabado de pregar. Pena que a cena dos amadores a jogar bilhar seja tão comum quando se toma a decisão de comprar uma máquina e, não se considera se ela viola as orientações estratégicas à la Terry Hill.
"The reason the company had not considered these and other areas of potential disruption had to do with its entrenched habits and cherished beliefs. The team was accustomed to a rigorous — but narrow — approach to planning. They built financial projections, tracked their immediate competitors, and followed R&D within their industry sector. That was it.
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What I observed is hardly unique. When faced with deep uncertainty, teams often develop a habit of controlling for internal, known variables and fail to track external factors as potential disrupters. Tracking known variables fits into an existing business culture because it’s an activity that can be measured quantitatively. This practice lures decision makers into a false sense of security, and it unfortunately results in a narrow framing of the future, making even the most successful organizations vulnerable to disruptive forces that appear to come out of nowhere. Failing to account for change outside those known variables is how even the biggest and most respected companies get disrupted out of the market.
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Futurists call these external factors weak signals, and they are important indicators of change. Some leadership teams lean into uncertainty by seeking out weak signals.
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As a quantitative futurist, my job is to investigate the future, and that process is anchored in intentionally confronting uncertainties both internal and external to an organization.
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I use a simple tool to apply the future forces theory to organizations as they are developing strategic thinking. It lists 11 sources of macro change that are typically outside a leader’s control.
It might go against the established culture of your organization, but embracing uncertainty is the best way to confront external forces outside your control. Seeking out weak signals by intentionally looking through the lenses of macro change is the best possible way to make sure your organization stays ahead of the next wave of disruption."Trechos retirados de "The 11 Sources of Disruption Every Company Must Monitor"
"A key change that marketers need to recognize is that customers had to rely solely on the manufacturer for information about the product and brand (through advertising, promotions, public relations [PR] exercises, etc.). However, today, customers can easily access information about products and brands from experts, friends, colleagues and users of the product across the world, thanks to the Internet.Trechos retirados de "From Brand to Customer" de Ajit Rao publicado no Journal of Creating Value.
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This means that brand as a surrogate of quality is becoming irrelevant; this also means that customer expectations are far more realistic before buying a product or service. It must be mentioned here that brand would still be relevant in several other ways—as ‘badge’ value, [Moi ici: Fazer parte da tribo] as a manifestation of trust and in the consumer goods sector.
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Given these changes, it makes sense for marketers to start thinking about moving from product and brand focus to a focus on the customer—from creating brand equity to creating customer equity, from having a chief brand officer to having a chief customer officer.
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This movement from brand to customer also means that the organization needs to shift from a production-oriented mindset and capability to a mindset of ‘mass customization’ where each customer is a market of one—[Moi ici: Isto é Mongo!!!] this is when the organization can create real value, for customers, shareholders, employees and other stakeholders. However, this may also be the biggest barrier in an organization’s metamorphosis from brand to customer. Given that what gets measured gets managed, the starting point for the change must be clearly defined customer metrics that is closely related to business outcomes."
"Harvard is asking students not to return to campus after its spring break amid coronavirus concerns.Se isto é possível... por que não generalizar? Por que não abandonar o modelo clássico e apostar a fundo neste modelo para o futuro? Uma espécie de híbrido, as aulas clássicas passarem a virtual e o regime presencial para workshops? E já agora, por que não introduzir o "flip the classroom"?
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The Ivy League university is seeking to completely transition to virtual classes for all courses by March 23, when they were originally due to begin after the recess, president Larry Bacow said in a message to the community."
"The “performance” corner of the athletic-wear market — meaning products made for actual sports use, not for sitting on the couch in front of the game — is where Under Armour made its name. [Moi ici: A Under Armour começou com um certo tipo de cliente-alvo que valorizava a performance.]
...A Under Armour quis crescer para o mass market. Por isso, teve de procurar servir um outro tipo de cliente que não o da performance. Ora, parece que os influencers não determinam as compras para esse mercado. Será que o cliente errado da Under Armour é o da performance, como pensa o artigo, ou o do athleisure? Será que a Under Armour tem vantagens competitivas para ter sucesso no mass-market?
Under Armour went on to live out the axiom that if you win over the most demanding consumers (in this case, serious athletes), then the wannabes fall in line and follow whatever trend those influencers set.[Moi ici: A Under Armour confiou no impacte dos influencers]
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But lately, the company’s strategy hasn’t been a winner. ... Under Armour announced disappointing results and a gloomy forecast, its stock has suffered accordingly, and among other problems, a federal probe is reportedly exploring whether the company used accounting tricks to massage its sales-growth curve.
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What went wrong? One compelling answer is that Under Armour misread the rise of the so-called athleisure trend and put too much focus on performance. In short, this maker of gear for authentic athletes may have been better off catering more to the poseurs and couch potatoes.
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It’s not that a brand can’t be successful with a strict focus on performance, ... But a brand with mass aspirations shouldn’t get overly obsessed with an elite customer niche. “[Under Armour] clearly needs to understand that [performance] is very much the smaller part of the market,” he says. “And a shrinking part of the market.”
"Since peaking in the early 1980s at 1.8 million tons a year, Israeli citrus production has dropped almost 75%.O calçado vai acabar em Portugal? Não.
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With a strengthening currency making exports less competitive and scarce water supplies raising the cost of cultivation, oranges—and many other crops—are no longer worth the effort. Agriculture has fallen to 2% of goods exports, from a peak above 40% in the 1950s,
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Just 1% of Israelis now work in agriculture, down from 18% in 1958, while the tech sector has shot up from virtually zero to 10% of jobs today, many developing software used outside the country. That’s helped double exports of services since 2008, to more than $50 billion last year—with services in 2020 poised to surpass goods exports for the first time. The shift “from basic agriculture like Jaffa oranges to top-of-the-line tech” makes economic sense,
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In regional rivals such as Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, “labor is very cheap, and water is very cheap, and the currency is better for exporters,” says Nitzan Rottman, who oversees work on citrus at Israel’s Ministry of Agriculture. “We can’t compete with them.”
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Some farmers are shifting from crops such as oranges—water-intensive even with the best irrigation systems—to less-thirsty alternatives such as grapes, olives, and Argania spinosa, the nut tree that produces argan oil for shampoos and skin creams."
"O número de empresas vai voltar a diminuirRecordar a Intel e a decisão: se estivesse a começar agora, apostava nisto ou mantinha-me a defender o negócio actual?
A quantidade de pares produzidos vai voltar a diminuir
O número de trabalhadores vai voltar a diminuir
O preço médio por par vai novamente dar um salto importante"
"When is the VP not usable in value-based selling?.
When customer (1) wants to buy predefined specifications. instead of impact on his value, (2) is not willing to collaborate. When the value of the relationship is low.
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When the customer uses target costing that concerns cost reduction only, as managerial accounting device for knowledge transfer to suppliers
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When customer wants to buy predefined specifications instead of impact on their value
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When actors on supplier or customer side: (1) don't understand financial value drivers concept and (2) have motivation system which is loosely linked to their company's NPV"
"What value is depends on who it is created for and who is in charge of the value creation process. Three theoretical positions exist with three diverging scholarly views on what value means and who value is created for: resource-based view of the firm, value exchange and relationship value.
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Value Creation or Value Capture?
There is also lots of confusion among scholars and practitioners between the concepts of value creation and value capture.
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Value creation and value capture are, therefore, different concepts
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the value that a seller creates needs to be quantified in financial terms to be exchanged, shared with and captured from customers.
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Customer Value Needs to Be Formally Managed
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We posit that, like any process, customer value needs to be formally and intentionally managed. Customer value management includes three steps that form a sequence that cannot be broken
All three steps require a formal process and the development of strong capabilities. The process begins with value creation activities designed for and with customers. Generally speaking, these activities or initiatives are managed by innovation and marketing teams with the support of business development and sales teams in the field. [Moi ici: Sorri ao ler isto. Estou sempre a pregar que para subir na escala de valor é preciso ter uma equipa unida em torno do marketing, comercial e inovação/desenvolvimento] During this first step, value for the customer is created but can also be co-created as partnerships and collaborative projects. In both instances, customer value is identified and potentially created. It is not yet extracted or captured. Following this first step, marketing and pricing teams need to zoom in on the second step of the value management process, which is value quantification.
Value quantification is an essential step in the process and is most often neglected or forgotten. The goal in this step is to assess and quantify the value potentially created for the customer. [Moi ici: Recordar Total Value Ownership] This external quantification process, in the form of value-in-use analysis, total-cost-of ownership calculations, life-cycle costing models or customer value models, is essential to calculating the value pool generated by a supplier and potentially shared with customers.
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This, of course, requires testing and validation with the customer that value is indeed created and eventually delivered. Because one cannot capture something which is not measured, value quantification has received increased attention in scholarly and practitioner publications in the past 24 months. After the customer value pool is clearly calculated, the last step of the value management process is value capture. At this stage, prices are set within the value pool in combination with cost and competition information. Pricing and marketing teams can, therefore, decide how much value can be captured through price premiums versus competition and how much value can be shared with customers. That process of sharing and exchanging happens during the value capture process through the hard work of value-based selling and negotiation for value.
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In summary, value for customers is first created, then quantified using formal methods, then captured through price-setting and price-getting activities. This value management process is essential to a firm’s go-to-market strategy. It involves all the key players and functions of such a strategy, beginning with innovation teams and ending with sales teams,
"IN FEBRUARY 2014 a strike on the London Underground offered management theorists a lesson in resilience and adaptation. Because the shutdown closed some but not all Tube lines, frustrated Londoners were forced to rethink their commutes to and from work. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge universities subsequently found that around 5% of passengers stuck to their new itineraries even after normal service resumed. The long-term economic gains of one in 20 travellers adopting new and improved ways to get to work turned out to be greater than the short-term costs of the disruption.E ainda:
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Some companies will, like most of London’s commuters, revert to autopilot once the threat recedes. But for others the interruption will have a lasting effect, accelerating trends in business organisation that were already under way.
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And for firms already worried about rickety supply chains amid a trade war, the virus gives another reason to reconfigure them.
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The coronavirus will not make business travel or lean global supply chains disappear. Chinese factories are cranking up again and high-flyers will, in all likelihood, be back in airport lounges soon enough. But the crisis offers a chance to experiment with new ways of doing things—and to question the wisdom of old habits. Chief executives should not be immune to the opportunity."
"What’s happening to Italy’s fashion industry is likely a preview of the coronavirus’ impact on the global economy more broadly. Companies in a wide range of industries are dependent on China as both a manufacturing behemoth and billion-plus-consumer market. But as life in some parts of the country comes to a near-standstill in the face of the outbreak, that reliance looks more and more like a weakness.Trechos retirados de "How the Coronavirus' Effect On the Fashion Industry Reveals Flaws in the Global Economy"
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Like many other industries, the fashion world has long embraced China as a source of cheap manufacturing — the country is by far the world’s largest producer of textiles, and it produces many of the other elements that go into clothes, from buttons to zippers to thread. “The vast majority of certain products are only done in China,” says Gary A. Wassner, the CEO of Hildun Corporation and the chairman of Interluxe. “We became very dependent, and we allowed it to happen because it was cost-efficient, but that’s not the only thing to consider.”"
"Ya no sólo el ecommerce amenaza los márgenes de la industria de la moda. Un nuevo elemento sobrevenido presiona a la baja los márgenes del sector. El traslado de forma repentina de producciones a Turquía está llevando a una subida de precios y los gigantes se preparan ya para un recorte de sus márgenes en 2020. “Hay colapso de capacidad: los que ya estaban allí han conseguido espacio, pero los que hemos llegado tarde o no tenemos opción o pagamos más”, afirma un ejecutivo del sector.
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La situación se repite en Marruecos, Túnez, Rumanía y Portugal, pero Turquía es el mercado por el que más están apostando los grupos de moda para hacer frente a la ruptura de la cadena de suministro por la paralización de las fábricas en China y la afectación de puertos y aeropuertos.
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Son varios los ejecutivos del sector que alertan ya de una subida de precios, principalmente en Turquía. El impacto de este movimiento de los proveedores turcos se notará, sobre todo, en la temporada otoño-invierno 2020, aunque los márgenes de todo el ejercicio están ya comprometidos."
"Onde está a próxima etapa da cadeia com possibilidade de gerar diferenciação?Entretanto, ontem ao ler "Las certificaciones Gots se disparan un 35% en 2019":
Será no desenho e diferenciação do que se faz?
Será no consumo e na forma como se chega a ele?"
"El número de compañías certificadas por la Global Organic Textiles Standard (Gots) se ha elevado un 5% en 2019Recordei-me da informação de que a certificação ambiental tem crescido muito entre as empresas de calçado. E fiz logo a ponte para a figura lá de cima e para o extremo do desenho.
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En España, el número de empresas que han conseguido este sello durante 2019 ha ascendido un 71%.
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Los países con más certificaciones son India, con 2.411, Bangladesh, con 1.194, y Turquía, con 858."
"O grande medo que devemos ter não é tanto do vírus, mas das lideranças bipolares que não confiam na mobilização das pessoas e na sua ação colaborativa decisiva e esclarecida, como, também, é referido pelo bastonário da ordem dos médicos que acrescentou, esta semana, "o combate depende de cada uma das pessoas individualmente" e, neste sentido, defendeu que "os cidadãos todos juntos conseguem derrotar o vírus com facilidade"."Trecho retirado desta reflexão.
"Stability ends of up getting killed by the next hurricane, the next pest, the next competitor, the next predator, ...."Quando ouvirem as críticas ao bode expiatório lembrem-se deste gráfico:
"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
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"Lovaglia’s Law: The more important the outcome of a decision, the more people will resist using evidence to make it."
"If an organisation is too stable it can ossify, but if it is too unstable it can disintegrate. Successful organisations work between these two conditions or states, in what Stacey called ‘the chaos zone’."
"If the customer doesn't care about the price, then the retailer shouldn't care about the cost,"
“It's not enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what's required”.
"Das Leben, das uns gegeben ist, ist uns nicht als etwas Fertiges gegeben, sondern wir müssen es uns gestalten, und zwar jeder sein eigenes."
"Eine Regierung, die nichts wert ist, kostet am meisten."
"Forget trying to persuade them; light their pants on fire."
"O futuro é o que importa. O futuro é a base do significado, é de onde vem o projecto que alguém tem para si próprio"
"The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change.”
"o Marketing só existe a partir do pensamento estratégico, caso contrário "não resulta""
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"
"Perder diversidade é como arrancar páginas de um livro. Quantas páginas poderemos arrancar até deixar de compreender o enredo?"
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."
"By strategy, I mean a cohesive response to a challenge. A real strategy is neither a document nor a forecast but rather an overall approach based on a diagnosis of a challenge. The most important element of a strategy is a coherent viewpoint about the forces at work, not a plan."
"Un desastre està punt de succeir a Espanya. El malentès de la gravetat de la crisi costarà car als inversors, ja que tindrà profundes conseqüències per a tot el sistema bancari europeu", afirma.
Entre d'altres coses, Mauldin diu que "els inversors estan fumant crack si creuen que els bancs espanyols són entre els més forts d'Europa, ja que estan amagant les seves pèrdues".
“… there are no “sunset” industries condemned to disappear in high wage economies, although there are certainly sunset and condemned strategies, among them building a business on the advantages to be gained by cheap labor”
"o vencedor da vida, o optimista que vive em incesto com o próprio ego, é o traço mais frágil do líder"
"We shall not grow wiser before we learn that much
that we have done was very foolish."
You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race.
"I wanted you to see what real courage is, instead of getting the idea that courage is a man with a gun in his hand. It's when you know you're licked before you begin but you begin anyway and you see it through no matter what. You rarely win, but sometimes you do."
“Trust your guts. But not too much!”
"Customers will try 'low-cost providers,' because the majors have not given them any clear reason not to." "
"Natal é quando as Crianças pedem e os Pais pagam. Défices é quando os Pais pedem e as Crianças pagam."
"A imprevidência dos povos é infinita, a dos governos é legal"
"What a man sees depends both upon what he looks at and also upon what his previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him to see"
“The leaders first task is to be the trumpet that sounds a clear sound”
"lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti."
"Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul..."
O problema não é o consumo. O problema é o consumo assente em endividamento."
"There are designations, like "economist", "prostitute", or "consultant" for which additional characterization doesn't add information."
When it becomes more difficult to suffer than change, you will change"
"Hope is not a strategy and a crisis is a terrible thing to waste"
The more you can see of the present, the more you can see of the future"
Yes, You can change the future, but only changing the present"
"Entrepreneurship is 'Having aspirations greater than your resources'"
“The single biggest reason companies fail is they overinvest in what is, as opposed to what might be."
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that"
"A estabilidade é uma ilusão"
"When we create the conditions of possibility, the universe becomes our co-conspirator"
Thinking about doing is not doing. Talking about doing is not doing. Doing is doing."
"'God has created me to do him some definite service. He has committed some work to me which he has not committed to another'.
...
"Each of us has a mission, each of us is called to change the world, to work for a culture of life, a culture forged by love and respect for the dignity of each human person.
"As our Lord tells us in the Gospel we have just heard, our light must shine in the sight of all, so that, seeing our good works, they may give praise to our heavenly Father."
"The future is not there waiting for us. We create it by the power of imagination."
"confusing testosterone with strategy is a bad idea"
"Much consulting involves the application of models to a system, as opposed to getting involved in the system as a positive change agent""
"O Portugal que pára sem orçamento é precisamente aquele que vive dele e que há todo o interesse em parar."
"credibilidade da política financeira e dos seus executores está ao nível da credibilidade de uma barraca das farturas"
"The role of the manager is thought to be reduction of uncertainty rather than the capacity to live creatively in it"
"today an entrepreneur is closer to artists than managers"
"A business without a path to profit isn’t a business, it’s a hobby"
"If no one’s upset by what you’re saying, you’re probably not pushing hard enough. (And you’re probably boring, too.)"
"Storytelling isn’t just how we construct our identities, stories are our identities"
"'He who has a why to live can bear almost any how' "
"They can because they think they can"
"Se há coisa que não suporto é misturar catequese com negócios, é a incapacidade para calçar os sapatos do outro e só pensar na nossa posição de coitadinhos, pobres vítimas indefesas dos maus e que por isso precisamos do Estado todo poderoso para nos proteger e, nem percebem na volta, os juros que o Estado cobra por esse serviço mafioso de protecção que, ainda por cima não resolve nada."
"Empathy is like a universal solvent. Any problem immersed in empathy becomes soluble."
"In victory, do not brag; in defeat, do not weep"
"Value it's a feeling not a calculation"
"An economist is someone who has had a human being described to him, but has never actually seen one."
"Don't finish first--it's not about running a rat race. Start with a better ending in mind."
"If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”
"The 'value added' for most any company, tiny or enormous, comes from the Quality of Experience provided."
"Crediting government with the success of entrepreneurs is like crediting the guy who built Bill Gates’ garage with the success of Microsoft."
"I have found that assuming social scientists understand the difference between correlation and causality is not generally a good one."
"Promising never to raise taxes, without reaching a deal on spending, really means a high and rising commitment to future taxes."
"Some things are so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them, for no ordinary man could be such a fool"
"os bancos não financiam a economia, a poupança sim"
"I do not know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody"
"Never be afraid to try, remember... Amateurs built the ark. Professionals built the Titanic."
"terms such as 'experiment' and 'observation' cover complex processes containing many strands. 'Facts' come from negotiations between different parties and the final product - the published report - is influenced by physical events, dataprocessors, compromises, exhaustion, lack of money, national pride and so on."
"'science in the making' is 'the consequence of [a] settlement' of 'controversies'."
"If the state wishes to spend more, it can do so only by borrowing your savings or taxing you more. And it's no good thinking someone else will pay, that someone else is you."
"All failures of strategy are rooted in the assumption that outcomes are predictable."
"Doing things like your bigger competitors is how to get killed in the wars out there"
“Uma moeda boa e forte é como a saúde. Só lhe damos verdadeiramente valor quando não a temos.”
"Life’s tough. It’s tougher if you’re stupid"
"O homem de bem exige tudo de si próprio; o homem medíocre espera tudo dos outros"
"Change is a threat when done to me, but an opportunity when done by me."
"As elites foram deixando de falar das exportações à medida que se foi percebendo que o país consegue exportar sem elas"
"Your toughest competition is the little voice inside your head telling you to stop"
"Pain is just weakness leaving your body"
"Built to last" is bad economics. Built to do something great" is the better idea. Think: "Creative destruction."
"the world is an uncertain place no matter how many Greek letter equations you affix to a problem."
"You never change things by fighting existing reality. To change s.th., build a new model making the existing model obsolete"
“No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical.”
"Success is not a destination. It's the trail you leave behind you."
"Winners make a habit of manufacturing their own positive expectations in advance of the event."
“You’ve got to start with the customer experience and work back toward the technology – not the other way around”
"Strategy as the "smallest set of - intended or actual - choices and decisions sufficient to guide all other choices and decisions sufficient to guide all other choices and decisions."
"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"
"nature evolves away from constraints, not toward goals"
"There aren't any textbooks on what to stop doing!"
"With great power comes great irresponsibility "
"Weird things happen when you take price out of the equation for consumers"
"‘It’s so damn complex. If you ever think you have the solution to this, you’re wrong and you’re dangerous.’"
"Saruman believes it is only great power that can hold evil in check, but that is not what I have found. I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love."
"Increasing stuff that doesn't add value dilutes existing value."
"O federalismo não é a alternativa à troika, é a troika para sempre."
"Never underestimate the difficulty of changing false beliefs by facts"
"Stressors are information"
“If you hear a “prominent” economist using the word ‘equilibrium,’ or ‘normal distribution,’ do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.”
"The advantage of experiences over things for most of us is that we can make them seem unique, which = scarce, which = value"
"Pedras no caminho?
Guardo todas, um dia vou construir um castelo"
"Without risk, faith is an impossibility."
"Não posso com quem vive a achar que os outros lhe devem sempre alguma coisa."
"In a world of increasing automation, our ability to perform tasks is not nearly as important as our ability to dream. The questions we need to ask are not ones of action, but ones of meaning"
"Me arrancam tudo a força e depois me chamam de contribuinte."
"Letting people vote for expensive programs that “somebody else” will finance is a good recipe for getting people to vote irresponsibly"
"what's fairness gotta do with pricing based in value?"
"The epic battle of our generation is between the status quo of mass and the never-ceasing tide of weird."
“Price is emotional”
"There will always be a reason why you can't pursue it, until competitors create a reason why you must."
"The most important thing to study is opening theory"
"The greater the contrast, the greater the potential"
“Customers don't care about your solution, they care about their problems.”
"Todos querem conhecer a verdade, mas o que desejam é que lhes contem uma mentira em que não sejam protagonistas."
"Execution efficiency strangles innovation in the crib, but not with malice, by default.”
"Our obsession with scalability is getting in the way of unleashing the potential of the 21st century."
"The system is optimized to mitigate risk, not create value"
"Champions are made when no one is looking"
"Don't bargain on value. Half as expensive is often twice as cheap."
"Customers care about outcomes, not effort, technology, or originality."
"
"You don't have to pick between 1) playing the game and 2) not playing the game. You can *change* the game."
""The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." "