O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente

Os nabateus deixaram-nos uma grande lição nas ruínas de Petra.

"BTW, este fim de semana vi num canal do cabo, tipo National Geographic(?), um documentário sobre os Nabateus e a civilização de Petra. Uma parte desse documentário não me sai da cabeça... a parte em que se refere a técnica dos Nabateus para transportar água ao longo de km e km. Eles desenhavam a inclinação das tubagens não para a máxima eficiência de caudal transportado mas para a mais eficaz. A máxima eficiência leva à rotura frequente das tubagens."

Pois:

"Systems with slack are more resilient." 

Ontem, no Financial Times apanhei esta figura:

E pensei no exemplo das farmacêuticas, referido nesta "Curiosidade do dia".

Cheira-me que este choque, que esta disrupção nas cadeias de fornecimento, provocada pelo coronavírus, vai ser um momento de viragem... como as cheias em Bangkoque para a Ecco.
Entretanto, ontem no mesmo Financial Times apanho "Margins are going to be squeezed":

"If there is a simple lesson to be drawn from last week’s market rout, it is that there is fragility in complexity. The coronavirus outbreak has, like the 2011 Japanese tsunami and Thai floods that disrupted auto and electronics businesses, or the 1999 earthquake in Taiwan that brought the semiconductor industry to a halt, shown us the vulnerabilities of our highly interconnected economy and global supply chains.
.
This time around, the trigger is an outbreak spreading outwards from China, still the factory of the world as well as its second-largest economy.
...
Goldman Sachs last week warned investors to expect zero profit growth from US companies this year, mainly because of the growing impact of the virus. But I wonder how much profit growth big corporations will be able to expect even after the infections play out and the results of the November US presidential elections come in.
...
The healthy margins of today’s highly optimised, extremely complex multinational corporations have largely depended on their ability to manufacture in China, sell in the US and Europe, and stash wealth wherever it makes most sense — particularly in favourable tax destinations like Hong Kong, Dublin or the Cayman Islands.
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I’ve wondered for years when the fragility inherent in complex global multinationals would force them to shift their business models, and I think we’ve reached that moment. I believe coronavirus will speed the decoupling of the US and Chinese economic ecosystems, increasing regionalisation and localisation of production. That may result in “supply chains that are less efficient but more resilient”,
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If decoupling continues, multinationals will have to make costly choices around labour, productivity and transport in order to manage a shift away from China."

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos pode mudar drasticamente.

BTW, e estão a ver o impacto do coronavírus nos hospitais-cidade? E nas escolas-cidade?