Quantas empresas? (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.

Ontem numa empresa discutíamos o futuro do calçado em Portugal. Enquanto essa conversa decorria, pensava neste texto que tinha lido durante a caminha matinal, "The End of the Jaffa Orange Highlights Israel Economic Shift":

"Since peaking in the early 1980s at 1.8 million tons a year, Israeli citrus production has dropped almost 75%.
...
With a strengthening currency making exports less competitive and scarce water supplies raising the cost of cultivation, oranges—and many other crops—are no longer worth the effort. Agriculture has fallen to 2% of goods exports, from a peak above 40% in the 1950s,
...
Just 1% of Israelis now work in agriculture, down from 18% in 1958, while the tech sector has shot up from virtually zero to 10% of jobs today, many developing software used outside the country. That’s helped double exports of services since 2008, to more than $50 billion last year—with services in 2020 poised to surpass goods exports for the first time. The shift “from basic agriculture like Jaffa oranges to top-of-the-line tech” makes economic sense,
...
In regional rivals such as Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, “labor is very cheap, and water is very cheap, and the currency is better for exporters,” says Nitzan Rottman, who oversees work on citrus at Israel’s Ministry of Agriculture. “We can’t compete with them.”
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Some farmers are shifting from crops such as oranges—water-intensive even with the best irrigation systems—to less-thirsty alternatives such as grapes, olives, and Argania spinosa, the nut tree that produces argan oil for shampoos and skin creams."

O calçado vai acabar em Portugal? Não.
Afinal por ano ainda se fabricam 23 milhões de pares em França e 35 milhões de pares na Alemanha (dados de 2016).

No entanto, com a subida do SMN e o cerco turco/romeno/marroquino, é preciso pensar numa Fase 4:

"O número de empresas vai voltar a diminuir
A quantidade de pares produzidos vai voltar a diminuir
O número de trabalhadores vai voltar a diminuir
O preço médio por par vai novamente dar um salto importante"

Recordar a Intel e a decisão: se estivesse a começar agora, apostava nisto ou mantinha-me a defender o negócio actual?