"More than 30 years ago, Abernathy (1978) suggested that a firm’s focus on productivity gains inhibited its flexibility and ability to innovate. Abernathy observed that in the automobile industry, a firm’s economic decline was directly related to its efficiency and productivity efforts. He suggested that a firm’s ability to compete over time was rooted not only in increasing efficiency, but also in its ability to be simultaneously innovative"
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E depois o mau sou eu quando chamo a atenção para os perigos de olhar para dentro e apostar nos Kaizens e Leans porque o tempo é o nosso recurso mais escasso.
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Trecho retirado de "Perspectives on the productivity dilemma" de Paul S. Adler, Mary Benner, David James Brunner, John Paul MacDuffie, Emi Osono, Bradley R. Staats, Hirotaka Takeuchi, Michael L. Tushman e Sidney G. Winter, publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management 27 (2009) 99–113
sexta-feira, julho 01, 2011
Arquitectar a co-criação de valor a nível do ecossistema da procura
Ontem, durante a viagem de comboio Porto-Estarreja tive oportunidade de ler mais um artigo co-assinado por Lusch e que vai ao encontro de reflexões que por aqui se fazem:
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Primeiro um retorno ao homem que mudou a minha vida:
.
"He envisioned marketing as the whole business seen from the customer’s point of view and argued that the fundamental purpose of the business was to create a satisfied customer, with profit as a reward, not the goal itself.
...
Drucker attempted to focus the firm on how the customer, not the firm, views and values the firm’s offerings: ‘‘What the business thinks it produces is not of first importance . . . . What the customer thinks he is buying, what he considers ‘value,’ is decisive—it determines what a business is, what it produces and whether it will prosper’’
...
During this era, advertising began to move away from a focus on product attributes and features and toward customer benefits.
...
Although it is relatively easy to copy or replicate competitors’ functional benefits, it becomes more difficult to copy or replicate the nonfunctional or symbolic benefits a brand offers.
...
Recently Frow and Payne (Forthcoming) extend the value proposition concept to stakeholders and marketing systems or what have also been referred to as value networks or service ecosystems (Lusch, Vargo, and Tanniru 2010) (Moi ici: Já aqui usamos o termo ecossistema há algum tempo... e aquela extensão da proposta de valor para os stakeholders... talvez vá atrás destas "Dores de crescimento"(?). Tenho de arranjar os dois artigos!).
...
The firm must be understood as a complex network mechanism linking customer value and the value of the firm for all of its stakeholders.
...
Firms are evolving from largely self contained hierarchical bureaucracies into complex networks of relationships with resource providers of all kinds. Firms seek to focus more clearly on their own distinctive competencies as sources of competitive advantage while relying more heavily for adaptive, collaborative advantage with strategic partners to provide their distinctive competencies as components of the tangible and/or intangible product offering.
...
Marketing is emerging as performing a broader role in the management of the enterprise in guiding all business processes that are involved in the cocreation of value with customers.
...
Understanding customers and how the enterprise fits into their value-creating processes and communicating that understanding to the other resource-providing stakeholders becomes the primary role of marketing.
.
In the recent past, evidence suggests that marketing in many firms has been relegated to managing communications and branding activities. (Moi ici: Ehehe Aranha, cá estão eles)
...
To be truly customer centric, the firm has to think not about optimizing the firm and its activities but how to support customers in their resource integration and value cocreation activities. (Moi ici: A seta 1 é muito mais importante que a seta 2...Talvez a mensagem mais constante neste blogue. A única que explica o paradoxo de Kaldor, que permite fugir da armadilha de Pasinetti, que permite evitar o jogo do gato e do rato entre a produtividade e os salários, que permite ser próspero com uma moeda forte. Longa vida a Marn e Rosiello que me abriram os olhos há muito tempo.) Stated alternatively, the organization should be an effective and efficient service support system for helping all stakeholders, beginning with the customer, become effective and efficient in value cocreation.
The key concepts in the value cocreation concept of strategy and organization are core competencies and dynamic capabilities used to cocreate value and the relationships with all stakeholders that help to accomplish this. Value is created when a customer interacts with the resources and capabilities provided by a relationship with their firm/supplier and other providers of resources. Thus, the value can only be cocreated by sellers and customers together. A ‘‘good’’ relationship is one that creates value for both parties and leaves each wanting to continue the relationship in some form. ‘‘Good’’ customers are loyal; ‘‘good’’ suppliers are trusted and reliable and have strong ‘‘brands’’ or reputations.
...
Value Propositions Communicate Intention Throughout the Network (Moi ici: Grande subtítulo... uma proposta de valor é uma forma de comunicar uma intenção)
Intention and capability to offer value of a particular kind in a particular way is communicated to potential buyers and resource-provider partners with a value proposition, an invitation to participate in the process of cocreating value that is superior to competitor offerings
...
Also the firm’s value proposition must have appeal for all stakeholders who must see the potential value for themselves in value propositions being realized and their role in value cocreation with customers. It is a marketing responsibility to assure that the firm’s value proposition is communicated to, and understood by, the entire network of resource-providing stakeholders.
.
Customers as a Strategic Choice
The ability to actually provide the promised value depends upon carefully choosing appropriate potential customers, (Moi ici: Quantas empresas escolhem cuidadosamente os seus clientes-alvo? Como a corte que o macho faz à fêmea no mundo biológico... quem escolhe e quem é que é escolhido? Por que já estou a ouvir comentários do tipo: Então o fornecedor é que escolhe o cliente? Também! É a minha resposta. Tem de ser uma relação ganhar-ganhar) those with needs and preferences that are understood to be a good match for the resources and capabilities of the firm and its stakeholders. Strategy formulation is essentially a process of matching the networked firm’s competencies and capabilities with customer needs and preferences, identifying latent customer demand that is relatively underserved by competitors’ value propositions. ‘‘Bad’’ potential customers are those who will not value the firm’s resources and capabilities and will therefore be unwilling to provide reciprocal resources or service in their interactions with the marketer enterprise.
.
Value Definition is Dynamic and Learning is Critical
It is a fundamental premise of the value cocreation concept of marketing strategy and organization that the customer’s definition of value changes continuously. Marketing must be a learning process for both the supplier network organization and the customer."
4 páginas e meia cheias de sumo!!!
Trechos retirados de "A Stakeholder-Unifying, Cocreation Philosophy for Marketing" de Robert Lusch e Frederick E. Webster Jr, publicado no Journal of Macromarketing 31(2) 129-134.
.
Primeiro um retorno ao homem que mudou a minha vida:
.
"He envisioned marketing as the whole business seen from the customer’s point of view and argued that the fundamental purpose of the business was to create a satisfied customer, with profit as a reward, not the goal itself.
...
Drucker attempted to focus the firm on how the customer, not the firm, views and values the firm’s offerings: ‘‘What the business thinks it produces is not of first importance . . . . What the customer thinks he is buying, what he considers ‘value,’ is decisive—it determines what a business is, what it produces and whether it will prosper’’
...
During this era, advertising began to move away from a focus on product attributes and features and toward customer benefits.
...
Although it is relatively easy to copy or replicate competitors’ functional benefits, it becomes more difficult to copy or replicate the nonfunctional or symbolic benefits a brand offers.
...
Recently Frow and Payne (Forthcoming) extend the value proposition concept to stakeholders and marketing systems or what have also been referred to as value networks or service ecosystems (Lusch, Vargo, and Tanniru 2010) (Moi ici: Já aqui usamos o termo ecossistema há algum tempo... e aquela extensão da proposta de valor para os stakeholders... talvez vá atrás destas "Dores de crescimento"(?). Tenho de arranjar os dois artigos!).
...
The firm must be understood as a complex network mechanism linking customer value and the value of the firm for all of its stakeholders.
...
Firms are evolving from largely self contained hierarchical bureaucracies into complex networks of relationships with resource providers of all kinds. Firms seek to focus more clearly on their own distinctive competencies as sources of competitive advantage while relying more heavily for adaptive, collaborative advantage with strategic partners to provide their distinctive competencies as components of the tangible and/or intangible product offering.
...
Marketing is emerging as performing a broader role in the management of the enterprise in guiding all business processes that are involved in the cocreation of value with customers.
...
Understanding customers and how the enterprise fits into their value-creating processes and communicating that understanding to the other resource-providing stakeholders becomes the primary role of marketing.
.
In the recent past, evidence suggests that marketing in many firms has been relegated to managing communications and branding activities. (Moi ici: Ehehe Aranha, cá estão eles)
...
To be truly customer centric, the firm has to think not about optimizing the firm and its activities but how to support customers in their resource integration and value cocreation activities. (Moi ici: A seta 1 é muito mais importante que a seta 2...Talvez a mensagem mais constante neste blogue. A única que explica o paradoxo de Kaldor, que permite fugir da armadilha de Pasinetti, que permite evitar o jogo do gato e do rato entre a produtividade e os salários, que permite ser próspero com uma moeda forte. Longa vida a Marn e Rosiello que me abriram os olhos há muito tempo.) Stated alternatively, the organization should be an effective and efficient service support system for helping all stakeholders, beginning with the customer, become effective and efficient in value cocreation.
The key concepts in the value cocreation concept of strategy and organization are core competencies and dynamic capabilities used to cocreate value and the relationships with all stakeholders that help to accomplish this. Value is created when a customer interacts with the resources and capabilities provided by a relationship with their firm/supplier and other providers of resources. Thus, the value can only be cocreated by sellers and customers together. A ‘‘good’’ relationship is one that creates value for both parties and leaves each wanting to continue the relationship in some form. ‘‘Good’’ customers are loyal; ‘‘good’’ suppliers are trusted and reliable and have strong ‘‘brands’’ or reputations.
...
Value Propositions Communicate Intention Throughout the Network (Moi ici: Grande subtítulo... uma proposta de valor é uma forma de comunicar uma intenção)
Intention and capability to offer value of a particular kind in a particular way is communicated to potential buyers and resource-provider partners with a value proposition, an invitation to participate in the process of cocreating value that is superior to competitor offerings
...
Also the firm’s value proposition must have appeal for all stakeholders who must see the potential value for themselves in value propositions being realized and their role in value cocreation with customers. It is a marketing responsibility to assure that the firm’s value proposition is communicated to, and understood by, the entire network of resource-providing stakeholders.
.
Customers as a Strategic Choice
The ability to actually provide the promised value depends upon carefully choosing appropriate potential customers, (Moi ici: Quantas empresas escolhem cuidadosamente os seus clientes-alvo? Como a corte que o macho faz à fêmea no mundo biológico... quem escolhe e quem é que é escolhido? Por que já estou a ouvir comentários do tipo: Então o fornecedor é que escolhe o cliente? Também! É a minha resposta. Tem de ser uma relação ganhar-ganhar) those with needs and preferences that are understood to be a good match for the resources and capabilities of the firm and its stakeholders. Strategy formulation is essentially a process of matching the networked firm’s competencies and capabilities with customer needs and preferences, identifying latent customer demand that is relatively underserved by competitors’ value propositions. ‘‘Bad’’ potential customers are those who will not value the firm’s resources and capabilities and will therefore be unwilling to provide reciprocal resources or service in their interactions with the marketer enterprise.
.
Value Definition is Dynamic and Learning is Critical
It is a fundamental premise of the value cocreation concept of marketing strategy and organization that the customer’s definition of value changes continuously. Marketing must be a learning process for both the supplier network organization and the customer."
4 páginas e meia cheias de sumo!!!
Trechos retirados de "A Stakeholder-Unifying, Cocreation Philosophy for Marketing" de Robert Lusch e Frederick E. Webster Jr, publicado no Journal of Macromarketing 31(2) 129-134.
O caminho menos percorrido
"El sector de la moda se caracteriza por unos ciclos de producción de la ropa (Moi ici: O autor fala da roupa, mas moda é mais do que roupa, é calçado, é marroquinaria, é ... portanto, há aqui uma oportunidade de negócio para marcas por criar) de más de un año. Desde que se empieza a pensar cuál será la tendencia de moda la próxima temporada, se hacen estudios de mercado, diseño de ropa, fabricación y distribución, hasta que finalmente alguien compra un vestido pasa más de un año. Con tanto tiempo por medio las empresas no tienen tiempo de reaccionar. Si no has acertado con lo que va a querer el público la próxima temporada, te comes lo que has producido y si no has fabricado lo suficiente de lo que tiene éxito, pierdes oportunidades de venta (para mis antiguos alumnos de los masters del IESE, típico problema de la fractila crítica)
...
¿Cuál es la clave del éxito de Zara? pues lo mismo que Mercadona: haber ideado un método para hacer lo contrario que se hace en su sector. Zara tiene más de 5000 tiendas repartidas por todo el mundo. Tiene un sistema de información que le permite saber cada día qué se vende en cada tienda, y tiene cientos de talleres pequeños distribuidos por Galicia, Portugal y el resto del mundo, dispuestos a recibir órdenes en cada momento sobre lo que tienen que confeccionar. De cada producto hace tiradas muy pequeñas. Si de algo se vende poco -y lo saben casi instantáneamente- paran su fabricación y distribución. Si de algo se vende mucho, aumentan su fabricación. De modo que fabrican prácticamente solo lo que saben que se va a vender. (Moi ici, como escreveu David Birnbaum "Speed to market" "Avoid Markdowns")
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Potente sistema de información y rápida capacidad de reacción. Lo primero para saber qué es lo que el público quiere y lo segundo para tenerlo preparado a tiempo. Una vez más, como en el caso de Mercadona o Southwest Airlines, el éxito está en hacer las cosas de modo distinto a cómo se hacen en tu sector, y… hacerlas bien. Por cierto, un pequeño detalle, ni Zara ni Mercadona se gastan un euro en publicidad."
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Trecho retirado de "¿Y Zara, cómo lo hace?"
...
¿Cuál es la clave del éxito de Zara? pues lo mismo que Mercadona: haber ideado un método para hacer lo contrario que se hace en su sector. Zara tiene más de 5000 tiendas repartidas por todo el mundo. Tiene un sistema de información que le permite saber cada día qué se vende en cada tienda, y tiene cientos de talleres pequeños distribuidos por Galicia, Portugal y el resto del mundo, dispuestos a recibir órdenes en cada momento sobre lo que tienen que confeccionar. De cada producto hace tiradas muy pequeñas. Si de algo se vende poco -y lo saben casi instantáneamente- paran su fabricación y distribución. Si de algo se vende mucho, aumentan su fabricación. De modo que fabrican prácticamente solo lo que saben que se va a vender. (Moi ici, como escreveu David Birnbaum "Speed to market" "Avoid Markdowns")
.
Potente sistema de información y rápida capacidad de reacción. Lo primero para saber qué es lo que el público quiere y lo segundo para tenerlo preparado a tiempo. Una vez más, como en el caso de Mercadona o Southwest Airlines, el éxito está en hacer las cosas de modo distinto a cómo se hacen en tu sector, y… hacerlas bien. Por cierto, un pequeño detalle, ni Zara ni Mercadona se gastan un euro en publicidad."
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Trecho retirado de "¿Y Zara, cómo lo hace?"
Diagnóstico
Depois de ler este artigo "Corn Farmers and Geeks- Adopting Technology Hasn’t Changed in Years" um decisor de uma empresa devia questionar-se:
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- Qual o tipo de clientes com quem trabalhamos?
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- Será que o novo produto inovador que colocámos no mercado não está a ter o sucesso esperado porque o estamos a apresentar aos conservadores?
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- Quem são e onde estão os visionários dispostos a arriscar na experimentação de um novo produto inovador?
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- Será que temos os comerciais adequados a falar com visionários, ou estamos a tentar que argumentos de venda que servem para os conservadores também sirvam para os visionários?
.
- Qual o tipo de clientes com quem trabalhamos?
.
- Será que o novo produto inovador que colocámos no mercado não está a ter o sucesso esperado porque o estamos a apresentar aos conservadores?
.
- Quem são e onde estão os visionários dispostos a arriscar na experimentação de um novo produto inovador?
.
- Será que temos os comerciais adequados a falar com visionários, ou estamos a tentar que argumentos de venda que servem para os conservadores também sirvam para os visionários?
Segmentação de experiências
"If a firm has to design for value, it has to design for the segment of customers they want to target, (Moi ici: A escolha dos clientes-alvo é fundamental) and you would need to know what is the value upheld by the target segment. The cardinal rule of marketing 'you can't sell to everyone' still hold true today.(Moi ici: Mais importante do que nunca)
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Segmentation in Marketing is as old as segments exists. In the old days - everyone stayed in their boxes (or so we are led to believe). If you stayed in a certain location, it said something about you, which class of society you are, which brand of cereal, juice or clothing you'd buy. Segments neatly fell into nice demographics, income and social classes. And by inference, marketers knew what each segment would value from a good or service and the firm could design and deliver accordingly.
.
Of course that is no longer true... today, it's really hard to box people up. This then leads to how hard it is to cut the market up into segments for firms to target. How should markets be segmented? Marketing has leaned towards behavioral segmentation (Moi ici; Desconfio que "behavioral" se aplica quando se olha de fora para o cliente-alvo, é o comportamento que se observa. Mas quando se olha do cliente-alvo para fora talvez fizesse sentido chamar "experience segmentation", é a experiência que se busca e valoriza), which is close to value segmentation but the focus is still on purchase segmentation vs consumption segmentation."
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Trecho retirado de "Segmentation by Value"
.
Segmentation in Marketing is as old as segments exists. In the old days - everyone stayed in their boxes (or so we are led to believe). If you stayed in a certain location, it said something about you, which class of society you are, which brand of cereal, juice or clothing you'd buy. Segments neatly fell into nice demographics, income and social classes. And by inference, marketers knew what each segment would value from a good or service and the firm could design and deliver accordingly.
.
Of course that is no longer true... today, it's really hard to box people up. This then leads to how hard it is to cut the market up into segments for firms to target. How should markets be segmented? Marketing has leaned towards behavioral segmentation (Moi ici; Desconfio que "behavioral" se aplica quando se olha de fora para o cliente-alvo, é o comportamento que se observa. Mas quando se olha do cliente-alvo para fora talvez fizesse sentido chamar "experience segmentation", é a experiência que se busca e valoriza), which is close to value segmentation but the focus is still on purchase segmentation vs consumption segmentation."
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Trecho retirado de "Segmentation by Value"
A explosão do espaço de ofertas
Irene Ng no seu livro "The Pricing and Revenue Management of Services - A strategic approach" retrata bem o que é Mongo e a explosão de oportunidades de procura e oferta que se colocam cada vez mais:
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"Many service industries are starting to change traditional lifestyles, creating value that is elusive to capture. There are now more ways than ever to sell and deliver services. From the selling perspective, supermarkets can now sell insurance and broadband services and the mobile phone can now be a channel to sell news, music and books. From the delivery perspective, technology is now able to bring healthcare and education to the home, and banking to the beach via your laptop.
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With the proliferation of sales and delivery channels, service entrepreneurs and innovators are able to discover ways and means to uncover latent need for convenience and time, and meet them in innovative ways. Markets are now being divided into finer segments, leading to the term micro-segmentation, where it is now possible to price for each of these micro-segments. Adding to the complexity is the proliferation of brands worldwide. Brands create unique perceptions, appeal to segments through their identity, (Moi ici: Recordar este texto sobre a perda da identidade: "In their race for growth and their continued efforts to cut costs, many leaders forget the true enabler of profitability, value creation, and competitive advantage: a company's distinctive corporate identity." ) personality and meaning. Capturing that intangible brand value in the price of a service is a monumental task.
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Furthermore, the impact of globalisation is increasingly being felt the world over. While more markets are accessible thereby increasing potential demand, there is also greater pressure on firms to provide the same services at lower costs since companies abroad can now offer the same services as the firm down the road. Accountants in India are able to assist Americans in completing their tax return without leaving their country and X-rays taken in Britian could be analysed by radiologists in Russia. The landscape of the service economy is changing fast, posing a challenge to economists, regulators and marketers."
.
"Many service industries are starting to change traditional lifestyles, creating value that is elusive to capture. There are now more ways than ever to sell and deliver services. From the selling perspective, supermarkets can now sell insurance and broadband services and the mobile phone can now be a channel to sell news, music and books. From the delivery perspective, technology is now able to bring healthcare and education to the home, and banking to the beach via your laptop.
.
With the proliferation of sales and delivery channels, service entrepreneurs and innovators are able to discover ways and means to uncover latent need for convenience and time, and meet them in innovative ways. Markets are now being divided into finer segments, leading to the term micro-segmentation, where it is now possible to price for each of these micro-segments. Adding to the complexity is the proliferation of brands worldwide. Brands create unique perceptions, appeal to segments through their identity, (Moi ici: Recordar este texto sobre a perda da identidade: "In their race for growth and their continued efforts to cut costs, many leaders forget the true enabler of profitability, value creation, and competitive advantage: a company's distinctive corporate identity." ) personality and meaning. Capturing that intangible brand value in the price of a service is a monumental task.
.
Furthermore, the impact of globalisation is increasingly being felt the world over. While more markets are accessible thereby increasing potential demand, there is also greater pressure on firms to provide the same services at lower costs since companies abroad can now offer the same services as the firm down the road. Accountants in India are able to assist Americans in completing their tax return without leaving their country and X-rays taken in Britian could be analysed by radiologists in Russia. The landscape of the service economy is changing fast, posing a challenge to economists, regulators and marketers."
quinta-feira, junho 30, 2011
A primeira noite dos Abrantes-laranjas!
O espírito de José Sócrates vive.
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Desconfio que José Sócrates é um Time Lord, tal como o Dr. Who.
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A 5 de Junho sofreu uma regeneração e assumiu a entidade PPC, mas é o velho JS.
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Entretanto os abrantes têm fizeram a sua regeneração.
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Desconfio que José Sócrates é um Time Lord, tal como o Dr. Who.
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A 5 de Junho sofreu uma regeneração e assumiu a entidade PPC, mas é o velho JS.
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Entretanto os abrantes têm fizeram a sua regeneração.
O Grande Planeador
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Essas pessoas defendem que o Estado é que deve indicar em que sectores é que as empresas devem investir.
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Essas pessoas defendem que o Estado é que deve indicar em que sectores é que as empresas devem apostar para terem futuro.
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O mesmo Estado que não é capaz de prever o número de alunos que uma escola vai ter daí a 2/3 anos...
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"Escola inaugurada em 2009 vai fechar "por falta de alunos"":
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"A escola do 1º ciclo de Minhotães, em Barcelos, inaugurada em Setembro de 2009, após um investimento de um milhão de euros, vai fechar no próximo ano lectivo "por falta de alunos", segundo fonte municipal."
Uma oportunidade para as "boutiques" de consultoria (parte I)
"Since the idea of a "business strategy" — a long-term plan for growth and profitability — was first developed in the early 1960s, companies around the world have used this tool to pick a competitive position and make their way closer to it.
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But many business leaders seem to be losing their confidence in strategy, or at least in their own company's approach to it. This is evident in our ongoing Booz & Company survey, which asks executives from around the world to comment on the results of their strategic initiatives. With more than 2,350 responses so far, the findings suggest a high degree of disillusionment:
...
"Almost two-thirds of the executives who have responded so far say their biggest frustration is "having too many conflicting priorities." An even greater majority — 82% — say that their growth initiatives lead to waste at least some of the time."
...
"In their race for growth and their continued efforts to cut costs, many leaders forget the true enabler of profitability, value creation, and competitive advantage: a company's distinctive corporate identity."
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Continua. Há aqui muita matéria a merecer reflexão.
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Trechos retirados de "Making Your Strategy More Relevant" de Paul Leinwand e Cesare Mainardi.
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But many business leaders seem to be losing their confidence in strategy, or at least in their own company's approach to it. This is evident in our ongoing Booz & Company survey, which asks executives from around the world to comment on the results of their strategic initiatives. With more than 2,350 responses so far, the findings suggest a high degree of disillusionment:
- Most of the respondents (53%) don't feel their company's strategy will lead to success.
- Two thirds (67%) say their company's capabilities do not fully support the company's strategy and the way it creates value in the market.
- Only one in five (21%) executives think their company has a "right to win" in all the markets it competes in.
...
"Almost two-thirds of the executives who have responded so far say their biggest frustration is "having too many conflicting priorities." An even greater majority — 82% — say that their growth initiatives lead to waste at least some of the time."
...
"In their race for growth and their continued efforts to cut costs, many leaders forget the true enabler of profitability, value creation, and competitive advantage: a company's distinctive corporate identity."
.
Continua. Há aqui muita matéria a merecer reflexão.
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Trechos retirados de "Making Your Strategy More Relevant" de Paul Leinwand e Cesare Mainardi.
Falácias populistas *
"I don't have my finger on the pulse of corruption in China, but I think most people on the ground would say that as China was emerging from communism it was a very regulated society and therefore it was very corrupt.
But as they have deregulated the economy, there just aren't as many opportunities for people to be corrupt. China has become a more efficiently lubricated capitalist economy."
...
"Well, shutting borders will help a few wealthy people preserve their wealth. But there's no evidence that I know that shows shutting down borders helps your economy grow. Look at what happened with India during the first three decades after their independence, where they essentially wanted to keep imports out so that they could develop their internal industries. None of those industries became engines for economic growth. They were all inefficient and served India very poorly. It wasn't until things opened up that the local economies prospered. History is pretty strong on that question."
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As ideias de "desvalorização fiscal", saída do euro para "desvalorizar moeda" não resultam, nem na Índia, nem no Reino Unido como recorda o Anti-comuna.
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Trechos retirados de "Clayton Christensen: 'China's Growth Will Force an Innovation Competition with the West'"
* Classification made by Anti-comuna in the hyperlinked text.
But as they have deregulated the economy, there just aren't as many opportunities for people to be corrupt. China has become a more efficiently lubricated capitalist economy."
...
"Well, shutting borders will help a few wealthy people preserve their wealth. But there's no evidence that I know that shows shutting down borders helps your economy grow. Look at what happened with India during the first three decades after their independence, where they essentially wanted to keep imports out so that they could develop their internal industries. None of those industries became engines for economic growth. They were all inefficient and served India very poorly. It wasn't until things opened up that the local economies prospered. History is pretty strong on that question."
.
As ideias de "desvalorização fiscal", saída do euro para "desvalorizar moeda" não resultam, nem na Índia, nem no Reino Unido como recorda o Anti-comuna.
.
Trechos retirados de "Clayton Christensen: 'China's Growth Will Force an Innovation Competition with the West'"
* Classification made by Anti-comuna in the hyperlinked text.
quarta-feira, junho 29, 2011
O oposto de insatisfação não é satisfação
A propósito de "APQ: Qualidade é a única forma de dar a volta à crise" não esquecer o capítulo V de "Differentiate or Die: Survival in Our Era of Killer Competition" de Jack Trout e Steve Rivkin:
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"Quality and Customer Orientation Are Rarely Differentiating Ideas"
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Arrisco dizer que 90% das pessoas ligadas à qualidade estão na garantia e no controlo da qualidade... recordo os anos 80 e o célebre livro que virou slogan "Quality is Free".
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A qualidade é grátis quando se reduzem desperdícios, quando se produz bem à primeira... mas isso não aumenta o "perceived value in use"... o oposto de insatisfação não é satisfação.
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Um cliente não fica satisfeito porque uma marca que tinha defeitos deixou de os ter...
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O aumento desta qualidade pode reduzir marginalmente os custos... mas duvido que seja suficiente para o campeonato que temos pela frente.
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BTW, alguma confusão:
.
""Sabemos que não podemos competir pelo preço (Moi ici: Concordo inteiramente, logo...) nos mercados em que nos estamos e queremos situar. Logo, temos que competir com abordagens que sejam ou de melhoria das condições daquilo que fazemos, daí as abordagens 'Lean', que são totalmente tendentes à redução dos custos de produção e aos ganhos de competitividade pela redução de custos (Moi ici: Deve ter dado um salto muito grande e não consegui acompanhar... como não podemos competir pelo preço vamos reduzir os custos? Mas então podemos competir ou não?) mas, também, e muito, pela inovação, pela criatividade, pela criação de condições de inovação permanente!" (Moi ici: O que é que a APQ faz neste campo?) considerou."
.
BTW, o que já escrevi neste blogue sobre a busca de empresas excelentes prefiro a remoção das restrições. (R.I.P. Goldratt)
.
"Quality and Customer Orientation Are Rarely Differentiating Ideas"
.
Arrisco dizer que 90% das pessoas ligadas à qualidade estão na garantia e no controlo da qualidade... recordo os anos 80 e o célebre livro que virou slogan "Quality is Free".
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A qualidade é grátis quando se reduzem desperdícios, quando se produz bem à primeira... mas isso não aumenta o "perceived value in use"... o oposto de insatisfação não é satisfação.
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Um cliente não fica satisfeito porque uma marca que tinha defeitos deixou de os ter...
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O aumento desta qualidade pode reduzir marginalmente os custos... mas duvido que seja suficiente para o campeonato que temos pela frente.
.
BTW, alguma confusão:
.
""Sabemos que não podemos competir pelo preço (Moi ici: Concordo inteiramente, logo...) nos mercados em que nos estamos e queremos situar. Logo, temos que competir com abordagens que sejam ou de melhoria das condições daquilo que fazemos, daí as abordagens 'Lean', que são totalmente tendentes à redução dos custos de produção e aos ganhos de competitividade pela redução de custos (Moi ici: Deve ter dado um salto muito grande e não consegui acompanhar... como não podemos competir pelo preço vamos reduzir os custos? Mas então podemos competir ou não?) mas, também, e muito, pela inovação, pela criatividade, pela criação de condições de inovação permanente!" (Moi ici: O que é que a APQ faz neste campo?) considerou."
.
BTW, o que já escrevi neste blogue sobre a busca de empresas excelentes prefiro a remoção das restrições. (R.I.P. Goldratt)
O nosso retrato, o retrato de uma economia socialista (parte III)
Continuado da parte II.
.
Em tempos descobri que éramos conhecidos como a "Portuguese trap".
.
Pois bem, depois de ter descoberto o paradoxo de Kaldor, agora descubro "a armadilha de Pasinetti" e parece-me tão familiar:
.
"According to Pasinetti an economic system at constant composition with a fixed number of sectors would run into a bottleneck due to the imbalance between continuously growing efficiency and saturating demand.
.
This imbalance would allow all demanded output to be produced with a declining proportion of labour and of the other productive resources. Such a bottleneck, which from now on we will call Pasinetti's trap, could be avoided by means of innovations which gave rise to new sectors and would compensate for the growing inability of incumbent sectors to generate employment. Pasinetti's reasoning can be translated into the following two hypotheses about the relationship of efficiency and variety: (Saviotti, 1996, 2007):
Irrespective of whether one agrees with Pasinetti, the imbalance between continuously growing efficiency (Moi ici: Apostando no lean, olhando para dentro, reduzindo custos, despedindo pessoal, sendo mais eficiente, desperdiçando cada vez menos) and saturating demand (Moi ici: Sem apresentar novidades, sem rasgo, sem diferenciação, com a erosão progressiva do producer surplus por causa da erosão progressiva do "perceived value in use") represents a different meaning of creative destruction. If not compensated by the emergence of new sectors (Moi ici: Isto implica liberdade económica, isto implica redução da protecção do Estado aos incumbentes, isto implica que o Estado não faz escolhas sobre o que é que merece ver a luz do dia ou não) this imbalance would bring the economic system to a halt. (Moi ici: De onde virá a nossa década perdida? Caímos na armadilha de Pasinetti com uma agravante, a protecção do Estado não resultou por causa da queda do Muro de Berlim que acelerou o vector de destruição 3 de Saviotti "3) Growing competition from emerging countries which acquire the capability to make the same goods and services as in highly developed countries bur at lower cost") In this case growing productive efficiency would entail a destruction which could be compensated by the creative emergence of new sectors."
.
Como escrevi há dias, Sócrates queria seguir o exemplo da Finlândia na inovação mas não percebeu que o novo só surge quando se permite a destruição dos incumbentes instalados..
.
Em tempos descobri que éramos conhecidos como a "Portuguese trap".
.
Pois bem, depois de ter descoberto o paradoxo de Kaldor, agora descubro "a armadilha de Pasinetti" e parece-me tão familiar:
.
"According to Pasinetti an economic system at constant composition with a fixed number of sectors would run into a bottleneck due to the imbalance between continuously growing efficiency and saturating demand.
.
This imbalance would allow all demanded output to be produced with a declining proportion of labour and of the other productive resources. Such a bottleneck, which from now on we will call Pasinetti's trap, could be avoided by means of innovations which gave rise to new sectors and would compensate for the growing inability of incumbent sectors to generate employment. Pasinetti's reasoning can be translated into the following two hypotheses about the relationship of efficiency and variety: (Saviotti, 1996, 2007):
- Hypothesis 1: The growth in variety is a necessary requirement for long-term economic development.
- Hypothesis 2: Variety growth, leading to the development of new sectors, and efficiency growth in pre-existing sectors, are complementary and not independent aspects of economic development.
Irrespective of whether one agrees with Pasinetti, the imbalance between continuously growing efficiency (Moi ici: Apostando no lean, olhando para dentro, reduzindo custos, despedindo pessoal, sendo mais eficiente, desperdiçando cada vez menos) and saturating demand (Moi ici: Sem apresentar novidades, sem rasgo, sem diferenciação, com a erosão progressiva do producer surplus por causa da erosão progressiva do "perceived value in use") represents a different meaning of creative destruction. If not compensated by the emergence of new sectors (Moi ici: Isto implica liberdade económica, isto implica redução da protecção do Estado aos incumbentes, isto implica que o Estado não faz escolhas sobre o que é que merece ver a luz do dia ou não) this imbalance would bring the economic system to a halt. (Moi ici: De onde virá a nossa década perdida? Caímos na armadilha de Pasinetti com uma agravante, a protecção do Estado não resultou por causa da queda do Muro de Berlim que acelerou o vector de destruição 3 de Saviotti "3) Growing competition from emerging countries which acquire the capability to make the same goods and services as in highly developed countries bur at lower cost") In this case growing productive efficiency would entail a destruction which could be compensated by the creative emergence of new sectors."
.
Como escrevi há dias, Sócrates queria seguir o exemplo da Finlândia na inovação mas não percebeu que o novo só surge quando se permite a destruição dos incumbentes instalados..
Uma ideia que merecia consideração
Via @dvasconcelos tive conhecimento deste programa no Reino Unido "See Inside Manufacturing" para que mais gente perceba quais as oportunidades de emprego no sector automóvel.
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O sector têxtil, sem apoios do governo, podia copiar e adaptar para a sua realidade esta ideia, para combater a publicidade negativa que têm vindo a disseminar nos últimos anos.
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O sector têxtil, sem apoios do governo, podia copiar e adaptar para a sua realidade esta ideia, para combater a publicidade negativa que têm vindo a disseminar nos últimos anos.
O colapso é o último método de simplificação
Novo governo, novo PEC, o saque fiscal aumenta uma vez mais... talvez o colapso seja mesmo a salvação de quem trabalha. Recordo Clay Shirky:
.
"In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Tainter looked at several societies that gradually arrived at a level of remarkable sophistication then suddenly collapsed: the Romans, the Lowlands Maya, the inhabitants of Chaco canyon. Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness. Tainter asked himself whether there was some explanation common to these sudden dissolutions.
The answer he arrived at was that they hadn’t collapsed despite their cultural sophistication, they’d collapsed because of it. Subject to violent compression, Tainter’s story goes like this: a group of people, through a combination of social organization and environmental luck, finds itself with a surplus of resources. Managing this surplus makes society more complex—agriculture rewards mathematical skill, granaries require new forms of construction, and so on.
Early on, the marginal value of this complexity is positive—each additional bit of complexity more than pays for itself in improved output (Moi ici: Juro que ainda ontem à tarde me lembrei disto ao passar numa rua quasi só para peões, ao lado do hotel Dighton em Oliveira de Azeméis, e que nos meus tempos de infância era parte da Estrada Nacional nº 1, a estrada mais importante do país) — but over time, the law of diminishing returns reduces the marginal value, until it disappears completely. At this point, any additional complexity is pure cost. (Moi ici: IP4 versus A qualquer coisa, ou A1+A29+A32 todas paralelas)
Tainter’s thesis is that when society’s elite members add one layer of bureaucracy or demand one tribute too many, they end up extracting all the value from their environment it is possible to extract and then some.
The ‘and them some’ is what causes the trouble. Complex societies collapse because, when some stress comes, those societies have become too inflexible to respond. In retrospect, this can seem mystifying. Why didn’t these societies just re-tool in less complex ways? The answer Tainter gives is the simplest one: When societies fail to respond to reduced circumstances through orderly downsizing, it isn’t because they don’t want to, it’s because they can’t.
In such systems, there is no way to make things a little bit simpler – the whole edifice becomes a huge, interlocking system not readily amenable to change.(Moi ici: Percebo melhor a loucura grega... e a nossa) Tainter doesn’t regard the sudden decoherence of these societies as either a tragedy or a mistake—”[U]nder a situation of declining marginal returns collapse may be the most appropriate response”, to use his pitiless phrase. Furthermore, even when moderate adjustments could be made, they tend to be resisted, because any simplification discomfits elites. (Moi ici: Os incumbentes. Tanto podem ser uma empresa do regime, como os instalados na carreira da Função Pública)
When the value of complexity turns negative, a society plagued by an inability to react remains as complex as ever, right up to the moment where it becomes suddenly and dramatically simpler, which is to say right up to the moment of collapse. Collapse is simply the last remaining method of simplification." (Moi ici: Há uma poesia nisto...)
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ADENDA: Ontem à noite, 23h25, enquanto ouvia na SIC-N Helena Garrido a justificar a razoabilidade de criar um país com dois regimes, um para os incumbentes demográficos, e outro para os jovens, para salvar os dreitos adquiridos, escrevi no twitter: "Helena Garrido a dar argumentos que favorecem o sentimento positivo com a ideia da bancarrota do Estado português" é a derradeira alternativa de simplificação"
.
"In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Tainter looked at several societies that gradually arrived at a level of remarkable sophistication then suddenly collapsed: the Romans, the Lowlands Maya, the inhabitants of Chaco canyon. Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness. Tainter asked himself whether there was some explanation common to these sudden dissolutions.
The answer he arrived at was that they hadn’t collapsed despite their cultural sophistication, they’d collapsed because of it. Subject to violent compression, Tainter’s story goes like this: a group of people, through a combination of social organization and environmental luck, finds itself with a surplus of resources. Managing this surplus makes society more complex—agriculture rewards mathematical skill, granaries require new forms of construction, and so on.
Early on, the marginal value of this complexity is positive—each additional bit of complexity more than pays for itself in improved output (Moi ici: Juro que ainda ontem à tarde me lembrei disto ao passar numa rua quasi só para peões, ao lado do hotel Dighton em Oliveira de Azeméis, e que nos meus tempos de infância era parte da Estrada Nacional nº 1, a estrada mais importante do país) — but over time, the law of diminishing returns reduces the marginal value, until it disappears completely. At this point, any additional complexity is pure cost. (Moi ici: IP4 versus A qualquer coisa, ou A1+A29+A32 todas paralelas)
Tainter’s thesis is that when society’s elite members add one layer of bureaucracy or demand one tribute too many, they end up extracting all the value from their environment it is possible to extract and then some.
The ‘and them some’ is what causes the trouble. Complex societies collapse because, when some stress comes, those societies have become too inflexible to respond. In retrospect, this can seem mystifying. Why didn’t these societies just re-tool in less complex ways? The answer Tainter gives is the simplest one: When societies fail to respond to reduced circumstances through orderly downsizing, it isn’t because they don’t want to, it’s because they can’t.
In such systems, there is no way to make things a little bit simpler – the whole edifice becomes a huge, interlocking system not readily amenable to change.(Moi ici: Percebo melhor a loucura grega... e a nossa) Tainter doesn’t regard the sudden decoherence of these societies as either a tragedy or a mistake—”[U]nder a situation of declining marginal returns collapse may be the most appropriate response”, to use his pitiless phrase. Furthermore, even when moderate adjustments could be made, they tend to be resisted, because any simplification discomfits elites. (Moi ici: Os incumbentes. Tanto podem ser uma empresa do regime, como os instalados na carreira da Função Pública)
When the value of complexity turns negative, a society plagued by an inability to react remains as complex as ever, right up to the moment where it becomes suddenly and dramatically simpler, which is to say right up to the moment of collapse. Collapse is simply the last remaining method of simplification." (Moi ici: Há uma poesia nisto...)
.
ADENDA: Ontem à noite, 23h25, enquanto ouvia na SIC-N Helena Garrido a justificar a razoabilidade de criar um país com dois regimes, um para os incumbentes demográficos, e outro para os jovens, para salvar os dreitos adquiridos, escrevi no twitter: "Helena Garrido a dar argumentos que favorecem o sentimento positivo com a ideia da bancarrota do Estado português" é a derradeira alternativa de simplificação"
O nosso retrato, o retrato de uma economia socialista (parte II)
Consideremos o artigo “Towards an integrated perspective of strategy - The value-process framework” de Albrecht Enders, Andreas Konig, Harald Hungenberg e Thomas Engelbertz, publicado por Journal of Strategy and Management, Vol. 2 No. 1, 2009.
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Disclaimer 1: Um artigo posterior a 2008, que aborde a temática "valor para os clientes", e que na lista de bibliografia não mencione Lusch, Vargo, ou Gronroos, ou Gummesson, é de desconfiar.
.
Disclaimer 2: É preciso dar um desconto à linguagem utilizada, pré-SDL, por exemplo: “In order to operate profitably, a company must create customer value that exceeds the costs of providing this value”. A SDL ensina-nos que o valor não é criado pelas empresas. O valor emerge quando o cliente faz uso do produto ou serviço e vive uma experiência pessoal e subjectiva. O que é preocupante pois o artigo é de 2009.
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Disclaimer 3: O artigo refere muito as ideias de Porter, ideias que facilmente descambam numa sobre-concentração nos “cost-drivers”, de acordo com a minha experiência.
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Apesar de tudo isto o artigo tem utilidade. Ajuda a visualizar as forças que Saviotti e Pyka relataram.
.
A figura:
Ilustra a realidade de que o valor percebido pelo cliente durante o uso (“a price that a customer is prepared to pay for the product if there is only a single source of supply” e notar “perceived use value depends entirely on the individual customer’s subjective perception. Each customer will perceive the use value of a given product differently depending on factors such as gender, age, or cultural background”) tem de ser superior aos custos em que o fornecedor incorre, sem isso não há “criação de valor”, prefiro a frase de JC Larreche “originação de valor”.
.
A figura inclui duas setas: as empresas devem maximizar o valor percebido (e voltando a Saviotti, estamos a falar da trajectoria “(iii) the increasing quality and differentiation of incumbent sectors”), e minimizar os custos incorridos (a trajectória “(i) increasing productive efficiency”)
.
A figura:
Chama a atenção para a parcela do valor criado, ou originado, que é capturada pelo fornecedor sob a forma monetária como contrapartida.
.
“Even when a company creates substantial value for its customers, we do not know yet whether this value will also translate into profits. Porter emphasizes this point when he states that “satisfying buyer needs may be a prerequisite for industry profitability, but in itself it is not sufficient” (Porter, 1991). Instead, in order to succeed, a firm must not only be able to create superior value over a sustained period of time, but it must also be able to capture the value created in form of economic profits. … the value captured, or producer surplus, is the difference between the price charged for the good and the incurred costs. In contrast, the consumer surplus is the difference between perceived use value and price as shown in Figure
…
companies usually operate in a competitive environment where the consumer surplus provided by the competing players determines the final choice of customers.”
.
Num universo competitivo temos:
Seta 1: Com a passagem do tempo, o que era novidade, o que era diferente deixa de o ser. Assim, por saturação da procura, ou por aparecimento de alternativas mais interessantes, o “perceived use value” tem tendência a baixar se não for contrariado. Naturalmente, há uma erosão que contraria as aspirações das empresas.
.
Seta 2: Com a passagem do tempo, as empresas têm obrigação de aumentar a eficiência da sua produção/prestação. Assim, os custos têm tendência a baixar. No entanto, em ambientes de inflação diferenciada, ou de câmbios manipulados, ou perante concorrentes low-cost, a redução interna de custos pode ser insuficiente. (Voltando a Saviotti “3) Growing competition from emerging countries which acquire the capability to make the same goods and services as in highly developed countries but at lower cost”)
.
Seta 3: “Furthermore, in order to limit the size of the competitive discount, the consumer surplus, i.e. the “value for money” a company offers, needs to be unique (lever 3). This uniqueness can be achieved, for instance, through exceptional quality (Moi ici: Estamos a falar de atributos), a strong brand image or fast time to market. Only uniqueness leads to a reduction in the number of competitors, which, in turn, also limits the maximum consumer surplus offered elsewhere. Furthermore, to sustain the achieved competitive advantage into the future, it is also important that this surplus offered to the customers be imperfectly imitable or substitutable”
.
Em condições competitivas, é fácil ver o “Red Queen effect” em acção. Se uma empresa ficar parada, fazendo o que sempre fez:
• O “perceived value in use” baixa;
• Alguns concorrentes vão baixar os custos numa dimensão tal, que permitirá baixarem o seu preço, aumentando o “consumer surplus” sem pôr em causa o seu “producer surplus”. Ou seja, tornando a sua oferta mais interessante.
.
O que faz uma empresa que não evolui?
Uma empresa que não desenvolve novos artigos vê:
• O “perceived value in use” a baixar
.
Uma empresa que não aumenta a sua eficiência o suficiente para compensar o esforço de concorrentes de outros países:
• Os custos ou sobem, por causa do aumento dos factores de produção e da carga fiscal, ou não acompanham a pedalada de concorrentes low-cost
.
O producer surplus vai baixar cada vez mais…
.
Como é que esta empresa vai competir?
.
.
.
Voltamos a Saviotti “The results of our calculations show that the rate of growth of employment would be faster in the scenario without quality change than in the high quality change, but that such an outcome would be obtained at the price of persistently low wages, competencies and human capital.”
.
Os salários têm de ser baixos por causa da guerra do jogo do gato e do rato, porque as empresas não investem no aumento do “Perceived value in use” através do “(iii) the increasing quality and differentiation of incumbent sectors”. Mas apesar dos salários serem baixos, como o "producer surplus" é baixo, quase todo ele é consumido por esses salários (Recordar a primeira figura deste postal).
.
E quando "persistently low wages, competencies and human capital" não é suficiente, como é que as empresas reagem?
.
Numa sociedade economicamente livre essas empresas fecham e os recursos são naturalmente transferidos para outras tentativas mais bem sucedidas de servir o mercado.
.
Numa sociedade socialista como a nossa... temos uma década perdida. Temos o Estado, sob a capa de um eufemisticamente chamado "investimento" a suportar empresas, para compensar a saturação da procura e a fraca competitividade e, temos uma transição dos recursos da economia de bens transaccionáveis para a economia protegida das rendas asseguradas ou protegidas pelo Estado. (Por exemplo, ontem fiquei a saber que DGCI vai actuar como cobrador de portagens das ex-SCUT).
.
Recordar este postal do meu tempo pré-SDL.
.
Disclaimer 1: Um artigo posterior a 2008, que aborde a temática "valor para os clientes", e que na lista de bibliografia não mencione Lusch, Vargo, ou Gronroos, ou Gummesson, é de desconfiar.
.
Disclaimer 2: É preciso dar um desconto à linguagem utilizada, pré-SDL, por exemplo: “In order to operate profitably, a company must create customer value that exceeds the costs of providing this value”. A SDL ensina-nos que o valor não é criado pelas empresas. O valor emerge quando o cliente faz uso do produto ou serviço e vive uma experiência pessoal e subjectiva. O que é preocupante pois o artigo é de 2009.
.
Disclaimer 3: O artigo refere muito as ideias de Porter, ideias que facilmente descambam numa sobre-concentração nos “cost-drivers”, de acordo com a minha experiência.
.
Apesar de tudo isto o artigo tem utilidade. Ajuda a visualizar as forças que Saviotti e Pyka relataram.
.
A figura:
Ilustra a realidade de que o valor percebido pelo cliente durante o uso (“a price that a customer is prepared to pay for the product if there is only a single source of supply” e notar “perceived use value depends entirely on the individual customer’s subjective perception. Each customer will perceive the use value of a given product differently depending on factors such as gender, age, or cultural background”) tem de ser superior aos custos em que o fornecedor incorre, sem isso não há “criação de valor”, prefiro a frase de JC Larreche “originação de valor”.
.
A figura inclui duas setas: as empresas devem maximizar o valor percebido (e voltando a Saviotti, estamos a falar da trajectoria “(iii) the increasing quality and differentiation of incumbent sectors”), e minimizar os custos incorridos (a trajectória “(i) increasing productive efficiency”)
.
A figura:
Chama a atenção para a parcela do valor criado, ou originado, que é capturada pelo fornecedor sob a forma monetária como contrapartida.
.
“Even when a company creates substantial value for its customers, we do not know yet whether this value will also translate into profits. Porter emphasizes this point when he states that “satisfying buyer needs may be a prerequisite for industry profitability, but in itself it is not sufficient” (Porter, 1991). Instead, in order to succeed, a firm must not only be able to create superior value over a sustained period of time, but it must also be able to capture the value created in form of economic profits. … the value captured, or producer surplus, is the difference between the price charged for the good and the incurred costs. In contrast, the consumer surplus is the difference between perceived use value and price as shown in Figure
…
companies usually operate in a competitive environment where the consumer surplus provided by the competing players determines the final choice of customers.”
.
Num universo competitivo temos:
Seta 1: Com a passagem do tempo, o que era novidade, o que era diferente deixa de o ser. Assim, por saturação da procura, ou por aparecimento de alternativas mais interessantes, o “perceived use value” tem tendência a baixar se não for contrariado. Naturalmente, há uma erosão que contraria as aspirações das empresas.
.
Seta 2: Com a passagem do tempo, as empresas têm obrigação de aumentar a eficiência da sua produção/prestação. Assim, os custos têm tendência a baixar. No entanto, em ambientes de inflação diferenciada, ou de câmbios manipulados, ou perante concorrentes low-cost, a redução interna de custos pode ser insuficiente. (Voltando a Saviotti “3) Growing competition from emerging countries which acquire the capability to make the same goods and services as in highly developed countries but at lower cost”)
.
Seta 3: “Furthermore, in order to limit the size of the competitive discount, the consumer surplus, i.e. the “value for money” a company offers, needs to be unique (lever 3). This uniqueness can be achieved, for instance, through exceptional quality (Moi ici: Estamos a falar de atributos), a strong brand image or fast time to market. Only uniqueness leads to a reduction in the number of competitors, which, in turn, also limits the maximum consumer surplus offered elsewhere. Furthermore, to sustain the achieved competitive advantage into the future, it is also important that this surplus offered to the customers be imperfectly imitable or substitutable”
.
Em condições competitivas, é fácil ver o “Red Queen effect” em acção. Se uma empresa ficar parada, fazendo o que sempre fez:
• O “perceived value in use” baixa;
• Alguns concorrentes vão baixar os custos numa dimensão tal, que permitirá baixarem o seu preço, aumentando o “consumer surplus” sem pôr em causa o seu “producer surplus”. Ou seja, tornando a sua oferta mais interessante.
.
O que faz uma empresa que não evolui?
Uma empresa que não desenvolve novos artigos vê:
• O “perceived value in use” a baixar
.
Uma empresa que não aumenta a sua eficiência o suficiente para compensar o esforço de concorrentes de outros países:
• Os custos ou sobem, por causa do aumento dos factores de produção e da carga fiscal, ou não acompanham a pedalada de concorrentes low-cost
.
O producer surplus vai baixar cada vez mais…
.
Como é que esta empresa vai competir?
.
.
.
Voltamos a Saviotti “The results of our calculations show that the rate of growth of employment would be faster in the scenario without quality change than in the high quality change, but that such an outcome would be obtained at the price of persistently low wages, competencies and human capital.”
.
Os salários têm de ser baixos por causa da guerra do jogo do gato e do rato, porque as empresas não investem no aumento do “Perceived value in use” através do “(iii) the increasing quality and differentiation of incumbent sectors”. Mas apesar dos salários serem baixos, como o "producer surplus" é baixo, quase todo ele é consumido por esses salários (Recordar a primeira figura deste postal).
.
E quando "persistently low wages, competencies and human capital" não é suficiente, como é que as empresas reagem?
.
Numa sociedade economicamente livre essas empresas fecham e os recursos são naturalmente transferidos para outras tentativas mais bem sucedidas de servir o mercado.
.
Numa sociedade socialista como a nossa... temos uma década perdida. Temos o Estado, sob a capa de um eufemisticamente chamado "investimento" a suportar empresas, para compensar a saturação da procura e a fraca competitividade e, temos uma transição dos recursos da economia de bens transaccionáveis para a economia protegida das rendas asseguradas ou protegidas pelo Estado. (Por exemplo, ontem fiquei a saber que DGCI vai actuar como cobrador de portagens das ex-SCUT).
.
Recordar este postal do meu tempo pré-SDL.
Mongo is everywhere I look
Eric Beinhocker no seu livro "The Origin of Wealth" escreve:
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"Retailers have a measure, known as stock keeping units, or SKUs, that is used to count the number of types of products sold by their stores. For example, five types of blue jeans would be five SKUs. If one inventoried all the types of products and services in the Yanomamô economy, that is, the different models of stone axes, the number of types of food, and so on, one would find that the total number of SKUs in the Yanomamô economy can probably be measured in the several hundreds, and at the most in the thousands. The number of SKUs in the New Yorker's economy is not precisely known, but using a variety of data sources, I very roughly estimate that it is on the order of 10^10 (in other words, tens of billions). To put this enormous number in perspective, estimates of the total number of species on earth range from 10^6 to 10^8.
Thus, the most dramatic difference between the New Yorker and Yanomamô economies is not their "wealth" measured in dollars, a mere 400-fold difference, but rather the hundred-million-fold, or eight orders of magnitude difference in the complexity and diversity of the New Yorkers' economy versus the Yanomamô economy"
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Comparar este texto, com este outro publicado ontem na revista The Economist "Two thousand years in one chart":
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"over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already "longer" than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010"
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Comparar com as ideias de Hausmann e a explosão do espaço de produtos.
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Tudo a contribuir para a ideia de Mongo!!!
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"Retailers have a measure, known as stock keeping units, or SKUs, that is used to count the number of types of products sold by their stores. For example, five types of blue jeans would be five SKUs. If one inventoried all the types of products and services in the Yanomamô economy, that is, the different models of stone axes, the number of types of food, and so on, one would find that the total number of SKUs in the Yanomamô economy can probably be measured in the several hundreds, and at the most in the thousands. The number of SKUs in the New Yorker's economy is not precisely known, but using a variety of data sources, I very roughly estimate that it is on the order of 10^10 (in other words, tens of billions). To put this enormous number in perspective, estimates of the total number of species on earth range from 10^6 to 10^8.
Thus, the most dramatic difference between the New Yorker and Yanomamô economies is not their "wealth" measured in dollars, a mere 400-fold difference, but rather the hundred-million-fold, or eight orders of magnitude difference in the complexity and diversity of the New Yorkers' economy versus the Yanomamô economy"
.
Comparar este texto, com este outro publicado ontem na revista The Economist "Two thousand years in one chart":
.
"over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already "longer" than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010"
.
Comparar com as ideias de Hausmann e a explosão do espaço de produtos.
.
Tudo a contribuir para a ideia de Mongo!!!
terça-feira, junho 28, 2011
Dúvidas demográficas
Em 1971, a percentagem de jovens com menos de 15 anos na população portuguesa era superior a 30% (perfil demográfico islâmico).
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Em 2009, essa percentagem estava nos 15%.
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Haverá massa humana para demonstrações e agitação ao estilo do pós-25 de Abril?
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Números do Pordata
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Em 2009, essa percentagem estava nos 15%.
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Haverá massa humana para demonstrações e agitação ao estilo do pós-25 de Abril?
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Números do Pordata
Oh! Nunca verei esse dia
"RTP reestruturada em 2012, privatizada «em tempo oportuno»"
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E Deus, que é eterno, dobrou-se, escondeu a cara nas mãos colocadas em forma de concha e disse soluçando:
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-Oh! Nunca verei esse dia!
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E Deus, que é eterno, dobrou-se, escondeu a cara nas mãos colocadas em forma de concha e disse soluçando:
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-Oh! Nunca verei esse dia!
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