Moratórias já somam 44 mil milhões em créditos na banca nacional https://t.co/MreA4yJINv
— Observador (@observadorpt) October 30, 2020
"many businesses use standardized metrics not realizing that these metrics lead to the market averaging syndrome: the offering of one company becomes the reflection of the offering of any of its competitors. [Moi ici: Recordar Youngme Moon em "Now, something completely different... para nos deixar a pensar"] It is a result of the fact that the standardized targets become the entrained pattern of behaviours based on the unchanging set of expectations. In other words, people at the organization stop questioning things and keep on doing the same over and over again.
Sure, standardized metrics gives the managers the perception of control of what happens at the company. It gives them the tools to provide extrinsic award and punishment system. It leads to finding the shortest and easiest way to improve the bottom-line. It provokes the thinking: — what can I do to get me the best result? — rather that thinking — what can we do to built the best value?" [Moi ici: Exactamente! Por isso, na biologia temos a mistura de genes para variar sempre alguma coisa entre gerações]
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[Moi ici: O que se segue é muito bom!] Let me be very clear here: measurement of itself is not a wrong thing. My rant is not about having a measurement in the first place but about making it a goal or a target. It is about discarding the Goodhart’s Law:
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”
It might be even appropriate to paraphrase that law and, following Marylin Strathern, say that: — “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a measure at all.” [Moi ici: Como não pensar logo em jogadas ao estilo das cativações...]
The metrics should be set up not to command and control people but to inspire and focus them."
Trechos retirados de "The traps of standardized measures"
Aplicável à sua empresa:
"We should all spend more time thinking about the prospect of failure and what we might do about it. It is a useful mental habit but it is neither easy nor enjoyable.
...
When we launch a new project we might think about prototyping, gathering data, designing small experiments and avidly searching for feedback from the people who might see what we do not.
If we expect that things will go wrong, we design our projects to make learning and adapting part of the process. When we ignore the possibility of failure, when it comes it is likely to be expensive and hard to learn from.
The third advantage of thinking seriously about failure is that we may turn away from projects that are doomed from the out-set. From the invasion of Iraq to the process of Brexit, seriously exploring the daunting prospect of disaster might have provoked the wise decision not to start in the first place."
Mas é também por causa desses que eu defendo o salário mínimo bem mais alto, para que as falências que são inevitáveis aconteçam o mais cedo possível. E que o Estado ampare isso com os recursos que forem necessários. Em vez de TAPs, em RTPs, etc., etc.
— Tiago Az. Fernandes (@taf) October 24, 2020
Tenho tanto medo de quem está cheio de certezas...
"When we are faced with a problem, we assume that all we need to do is elaborate the options, select one, and then execute. This assumes that causality is determinable and therefore that we have a valid means of eliminating options. What we mean by causality is that we can relate cause and effect; if we take a certain action, we know what the effect will be — or given an effect, we can determine what caused it. This is not always the case and we need to acknowledge that there are systems in which we can determine cause and effect and those in which we cannot. We call the former ordered and the later un-ordered systems.
In an ordered system, the system is highly constrained, the behavior is highly predictable, and the causality is either obvious from experience or can be determined by analysis. If the cause is obvious then we have a simple system, and if it is not obvious but can be determined by analysis, we say it is a complicated system as cause and effect (or determination of the cause) is separated by time.
For an un-ordered system, we cannot determine causality. However, we find that some of these systems are stable, and the constraints and behavior evolve over time through the interaction of the components.
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We also need to acknowledge that systems are not always stable, and the state of the system may change over time. A system may be stable and predictable, but its performance degrades over time or it may simply break."
A Via Negativa tem o seu lugar.
Outro podcast simplesmente brilhante "Ep.108 - Bounding Losses With Jaffer Ali"
Com uma série de mensagens de pôr os cabelos em pé para quem o dinheiro é fácil de torrar, desde políticos até "empreendedores" que acreditam que a solução para o sucesso é o crescimento a qualquer custo.
Definitivamente não recomendado a:
Mais um relato do que se está a passar na economia do nosso vizinho e maior parceiro comercial:
"Según Adecco y el Banco de España, los salarios españoles podrían reducirse entre un 10% y un 15% en 2021 por la destrucción empresarial y caída de ingresos de aquellas que sobrevivan.
En un estudio reciente de McKinsey, reflejaba que de las más de 85.000 empresas que se han destruido desde febrero, el 83% son pequeños negocios con menos de cinco empleados. Una destrucción de empresas que viene de antes. España ha perdido más de 100.000 empresas en un año entre agosto de 2019 y 2020, es decir, casi el 7% del total." [Moi ici: Entre 2008 e 2013, perderam-se 117.000 empresas em Espanha]
Crise de saúde vira crise económica, que vira crise financeira, que vira crise social, que vira crise da economia dos direitos adquiridos: quarta vinda ...
Como escrevi em Abril: O coronavírus não muda nada, apenas acelera o que já estava em curso: previsão de 2015
Trecho retirado de "España, una destrucción de pymes sin precedentes"
Ele há coisas...
Quinta-feira, numa conversa ao final da manhã, já de saída de uma empresa de informática, alguém me chamava a atenção para o mau trabalho dos consultores que chegam a uma empresa e sem olhar para o que já existe, desatam a criar tabelas em Excel. Confesso que mentalmente também me incluí no rol dos acusados.
Ontem, ao fazer uma auditoria interna a uma empresa, percebi que havia uma grande confusão no preenchimento de uma tabela de Excel sobre compra de gases fluorados com efeito de estufa. Conversa para aqui, conversa para ali, e salta um print do Sage da empresa com todas as compras dos referidos gases em 2019 e 2020: Quando, quantidade, a quem e o número da factura. Até o valor no inventário físico de 31.12.2019.
Oportunidade de melhoria: a equipa auditora sugere que em vez de um impresso preenchido manualmente a empresa imprima, após cada inventário físico, um print do Sage para cada um dos gases com que trabalhou nesse ano.
Quantas vezes cometemos este erro de chegar com uma solução bem intencionada para implementar, sem fazer o trabalho de perceber o que é que já existe e pode ser utilizado.
Se fazem viagens de carro guardem duas ou três para ouvir na íntegra esta delícia "Ep.201 - Human to Human Alchemy In The Digital World with Rory Sutherland"
Entretanto:
"A pandemia praticamente parou o negócio. As empresas, nomeadamente as pequenas e médias, tentam adaptar-se à nova realidade, mas o contexto é extremamente desafiante. De tal forma que, de acordo com um estudo realizado pela McKinsey, mais de metade das PME europeias estão em risco de falência nos próximos 12 meses. É uma ameaça à economia da região tendo em conta que estas PME empregam dois terços dos trabalhadores europeus."
"El 50% de las pequeñas y medianas empresas cree que la supervivencia de su empresa está en riesgo y un 5% ha cerrado definitivamente o prevé hacerlo, según se desprende de la última edición del barómetro #LaPymeHabla de la Confederación Española de Organizaciones Empresariales (Cepyme).En concreto, el 92% de las empresas encuestadas ha afirmado que la situación económica actual es "mala o muy mala" y un 64% dice que las expectativas para los próximos doce meses son negativas."
Esperem até os bancos se juntarem à desgraça com o fim das moratórias...
Não pense que a sua empresa vai passar incólume. Ao contrário do ministro, prepare-se para o pior. E não adianta entrar em pânico, isso é o Eu-Criança. Agora é o tempo do Eu-Adulto.
Imaginem o impacto disto nos sectores tradicionais portugueses...
"Pero esta crisis tiene, además, otra particularidad, y es que ha transformado radicalmente los hábitos de vida de un día para otro. Uno de esos cambios que ha permanecido tras el confinamiento es el auge del teletrabajo, algo que podría tener un gran impacto en el mix de productos y servicios a los que destinan su dinero los consumidores.
Según Morgan Stanley, “cuando los consumidores trabajan desde casa, reordenan su gasto de manera similar a como lo hacen cuando se jubilan”. Tomando como ejemplo la evolución del gasto de las personas cuando pasan de trabajadores a jubilados en Estados Unidos, Morgan Stanley sostiene que tres categorías experimentan un retroceso especialmente destacable en el gasto: ropa, comida fuera de casa y transporte.
La moda es, de hecho, la categoría que pierde una mayor cuota en el gasto de los consumidores cuando se jubilan. Según datos de Morgan Stanley a partir del Bureau of Labor Statistics de Estados Unidos, cuando los trabajadores se jubilan reducen un 21% su gasto en ropa, mientras el transporte cae un 4%, el alcohol retrocede un 5% y la comida fuera de casa, un 8%. En el extremo opuesto, el gasto en salud se dispara un 118%, en artículos para el hogar se eleva un 49% y en alimentación en el hogar, un 27%.
“Mirando hacia el futuro, en un escenario donde la tasa de trabajo desde casa permanece elevada (aunque por debajo de los niveles actuales), el gasto en ropa podría desacelerarse aún más a medida que los consumidores repartan el gasto en otras categorías”, señala Morgan Stanley."
Trecho retirado de "Pide más, pero tiene menos: cómo la pandemia ha cambiado al consumidor"
Sobre Portugal não tenho vistos números deste tipo, talvez falha minha que não os sei encontrar, mas os números a que vou tendo acesso sobre Espanha revelam uma transformação brutal em curso:
"Si existe un ganador del confinamiento, ese es el comercio electrónico: en mayo, en España había un 33,5% más de compradores de moda online que en enero, frente a un 74,9% menos de compradores físicos....El resultado es que en el mix de ventas de moda en España, el canal online ha superado al físico (aunque sólo un mes) y varios operadores digitales se han posicionado en el top ten de la distribución.Si a cierre de 2019 la cuota de mercado del canal online se situó en el 9,3%, frente al 7,4% de 2018, según el Informe de la moda online en España 2020, este porcentaje se había elevado al 17% en julio, según datos de Kantar,...Si en enero el número clientes online de moda se elevó a un ritmo del 34%, en mayo el alza fue del 95%...Según el Barómetro de Empresas de Moda en España, el 51% de las compañías españolas del sector prevé reducir su red de tiendas físicas este mismo año....cinco meses después de que comenzaran a levantarse las restricciones al comercio tras el estado de alarma, más de un 15% de las tiendas de moda de España todavía no han reabierto sus puertas....Si Inditex debe prescindir de 300 establecimientos, en el conjunto del sector podrían sobrar cerca de 12.000...en los próximos años el parque de tiendas de moda en el mercado español caería por debajo de las 50.000 unidades y habría que remontarse más de veinte años atrás para encontrar una cifra tan baja....Otras previsiones son todavía más duras: por cada 1% que crece el comercio electrónico, cerrarán 13.000 tiendas. “Esto puede significar 100.000 tiendas menos hasta 2025”"
Que parvoíce de slogan... inventado por alguém protegido por direitos adquiridos.
Mais um conjunto de mensagens preciosas
"Demand-side sales is about pulling people toward progress. Flipping this lens flips the role of salesperson from icky used car salesperson to a helper. When you get away from pushing your product, you start to make people feel like you’re helping them; you’re their concierge. You’re no longer the used car salesperson. A great salesperson listens first and then helps.
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The very foundation of demand-side sales is being helpful, empowering, curious, and creative; you must understand why people do what they do.
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Principle #1: People buy for their own reasons. It’s more about progress than about your product or service. Your job as a salesperson is to help people make progress on their terms; it’s about more than selling and making the “almighty dollar.” Approaching sales from this mindset will set you apart as a great salesperson.
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Principle#3 The struggle creates demand. The struggling moment is the seed for all sales. Where do people struggle? Helping people make progress is embedded in finding these struggling moments. So, find the struggling moment!
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Myth #1: Supply creates demand; build it and they will buy it. No, the product does not create demand. [Moi ici: Quantas vezes ouvem os políticos dizerem-nos o contrário?] However well-meaning your aspirations, they are not enough to sell your product and cause people to make the necessary tradeoffs. People want to be their definition of best, not yours. It’s about fitting your product into their life by understanding the progress they are trying to make.
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Myth #3: Sales is about convincing people, and you can convince anyone to do anything. Salespeople don’t convince people to buy, people convince themselves. They buy for their own reasons. The customer defines the value. You need understand them first, and then your product and how it fits into their lives."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
Ao longo dos anos tenho aqui relatado a minha experiência e preocupação com a lentidão da mudança nas empresas portuguesas. Por exemplo, falta de fogo no rabo.
Também por isso receio o efeito dos lay-off: uma pausa que não pressiona as empresas a reformarem-se. Na verdade: Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição.
Por isso, assim que ouvi este trecho até me arrepiei:
"The COVID-19 pandemic has changed many aspects of business, but one thing that hasn’t changed is the urgent need for companies to transform. In fact, the crisis has underscored that need. Most organizations have already launched rapid measures in response to the situation. The challenge now is to build on these measures and develop longer-term, comprehensive initiatives to reposition the company for the future—which may feel like a permanent state of emergency."
Daqui, "How Transformative CEOs Lead in a Crisis":
"many companies across industries and geographic markets now need to stabilize revenue, unlock growth through new digital sales channels, and reduce costs.
...
Because the pace of change in business has accelerated, companies can no longer spend six months plotting a transformation and then several years implementing it. Instead, companies need to take immediate steps to begin delivering results, send cash to the bottom line, and fund future initiatives.
Top-performing organizations don’t rely on just cost cuts to free up capital—instead, they also improve capital efficiency and deliver quick wins to boost revenue.
...
To be clear, cost reductions are often a critical step, but they can never stand alone. Over the long term, revenue growth has a greater impact on transformation success—contributing, on average, nearly half of cumulative value creation after five years.[Moi ici: Ainda na sexta-feira passada tive conversa com empresa que passou pela redução dos custos. E debatemos várias alternativas para aprender com os 4/5 clientes novos que ganharam nos últimos dois anos para perceber como procurar ainda mais clientes para aumentar vendas]
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[Moi ici: Outra tema abordado nessa mesma conversa. O meu velho exemplo de Zapatero] New CEOs perform better in transformations. In fact, a new CEO can boost the odds of a successful transformation by 7 percentage points, on average. Why do new CEOs perform better? Because they take an outsider’s view of the business, with no legacy bias, and they are willing to take bold steps to shake up established ways of thinking.
Incumbent CEOs and management teams, therefore, cannot afford to be complacent and maintain the status quo. Instead, they must be somewhat paranoid and continuously take a fresh look at the business. Or, as we say, “If it ain’t broke, fix it anyway.”"
"This is how naive I was in the beginning. I’d see a problem, you’d pick up the rope and say ‘hey I can solve this problem’. And little did I realize that there was just a big mountain of crap on the other side. The reality is that there’s a simplistic approach to how we think. Sometimes people just dive in and do the first thing off the top of their head. [Moi ici: Este é o erro que encontro sistematicamente nas empresas. Por isso, a minha checklist de auditor tem duas perguntas sobre acções correctivas: Desenvolveram alguma acção correctiva? É uma verdadeira acção correctiva, ataca a causa?] And what I’ve realized is you have to get through the complexity to get to simplicity on the other side. [Moi ici: Isto é o que sistematicamente falha, poucos passam pela complexidade] It’s one of the only quotes I’ve memorized and when I heard it, it really rocked me which is Oliver Wendell Holmes who is a Supreme Court justice from 1902 said “I wouldn’t give a fig for simplicity on this side of complexity, but I’d give my life for simplicity on the other side of complexity”."O que eu vejo muitas vezes é isto:
"60% das contaminações dão-se no trabalho, em família e reuniões entre amigos. Lugares onde as pessoas relaxam-se"Não acredito!
"Unfortunately, most salespeople are not taught to think of themselves as a helper. They are taught to think about their product, the what, with all its features and benefits, and the people, the who, as a set of demographics. But they’re missing the five W’s and two H’s—who, what, when, where, why, how, and how much. Salespeople have been trained to only focus on a small portion of the equation. In fact, it seems many salespeople are operating under the marketing framework"
Deixar isto cair bem fundo. Antes de apanhar com o resto:
"When brand equity became more valuable than cashflow, marketers took the lead. It’s a fundamental powershift that’s relegated salespeople to order takers, not helping to generate demand. Marketers are expected to create demand, and sales is to follow the leads generated. It’s a flawed approach that sets salespeople up to fail. Demand is only generated by a customer’s struggling moment. If there is no struggle, there is no demand.
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It’s the lack of resources that’s turned traditional supply-side sales into an icky business. Salespeople are put under tremendous pressure, everything they do is viewed through the lens of the product and profit. The focus is on the “church of finance,” where cashflow is king and budget forecasting is center stage to keep banks and investors happy. When the “church of finance” is driving decisions, they’re not made in the customer’s best interest. As a result, salespeople end up promoting and creating endless ways in which to push people to buy their product or service before they’re ready. The reality is the push mentality does more harm than good—failed expectations and buyer’s remorse."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
"Remember that the push of the situation and the magnetism of the new solution need to be stronger than the anxieties and habit before someone will buy.
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Remember, the most vulnerable people in your portfolio are your current clients because you’ve learned to ignore them.
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Remember, value is created and money is made by solving the anxiety side of the equation.
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Remember, people are not paying attention until they see the problem in their own lives."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
"Active looking is asking yourself, “What are the alternatives for progress?”
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Ultimately, this is where people build their ideal solution—a target. It’s important that the buyer has contrast; without contrast it becomes almost impossible to decide.
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The outcome of active looking is that the buyer knows what they want. A “time wall” has pushed them into deciding. It’s a trigger mechanism that forces them to choose, rather than endlessly look.
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When deciding, people must make tradeoffs: What’s most important? What’s least important? This is where priorities are set, and value codes determined. It’s a triangle between time, cost, and quality. No one can have it all! People set their expectations here and will base their satisfaction on the criteria they set.
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Chad decides he cares most about trust and flexibility over cost. Chad trusts the new bank because they are willing to be upfront and honest and tell him no directly rather than giving a vague maybe about what they can and can’t do. Additionally, one of the contacts is a known colleague. They also provide Chad with options; they don’t try to define value for Chad. Ultimately, Chad chooses flexibility over cost. It’s a great example of tradeoffs. No one else gave him a more expensive option to buy ease of use. Why not? Probably because they didn’t think he would take it. You do not know what your customer wants, provide contrast."
Recordar:
"Contrast creates value
Providing an interviewee with contrast leads to greater understanding. Have them tell you why they decided against an alternative path. I use a bracketing technique to help provide contrast where neither option is right, and they need to elaborate."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
Como são as empresas portuguesas? Pequenas e médias empresas.
Como competem nos mercados internacionais? É porque têm o preço mais baixo?
Não, é porque apostam na flexibilidade, rapidez e diferenciação.
Recordo a hipótese Mongo.
O que é que Mongo requer? Flexibilidade e rapidez!
O que é que a automatização mal feita prejudica? A flexibilidade e a rapidez!
Recordar:
Bob Moesta em "Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” repete:
"Context creates meaning
The irrational becomes rational with context. When the answers feel irrational, it’s typically because you don’t know the whole story."
O meu radar funcionou assim que li no JN de ontem "Fãs de metal levam a recorde na fábrica de cassetes da Maia":
"O entusiasmo dos “metaleiros” tem permitido a recuperação de um hábito que está em contraciclo com a revolução digital: ouvir música em cassete. A Edisco – a única fábrica do género na Península Ibérica – fica dentro da zona residencial de Águas Santas, na Maia, e tem duplicado anualmente a produção na última década. Depois de ter fabricado 150 mil unidades no ano passado, já superou esta marca neste ano e vai registar em 2020 o recorde dos últimos 15 anos. O segredo do sucesso está no passa-palavra e “em falarem de nós nos fóruns.
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Em média, são produzidas séries de 300 unidades, muitas vezes esgotadas ainda nas pré-vendas. “Chegamos a ver cassetes na internet à venda por 80 euros e que tinham um preço original de 5 euros.”
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Na Europa, há fábricas de cassetes em Inglaterra, Polónia e Bulgária. A diferença é que a Edisco usa máquinas industriais, o que encurta o prazo de entrega de seis para apenas duas semanas."
Recordar o percurso do vinil, do filme a preto e branco, dos catálogos em papel, dos jogos de tabuleiro, das livrarias independentes, e outras cassetes,
Na passada sexta-feira tive mais uma das conversas oxigenadoras ao almoço.
A certa altura o meu parceiro referiu-me um truque que descobriu e lhe dá ânimo para seguir em frente: em vez de se concentrar no grande salto em frente, foca-se na pequena progressão pessoal ou no seu contexto que pode ser feita dia após dia.
Enquanto o ouvia na minha mente recordava a frase mais do que conhecida de Kennedy:
"não perguntes o que o teu país pode fazer por ti; pergunta o que tu podes fazer pelo teu país"
Por que escrevo isto agora? Porque acabo de tentar ler "48 líderes exigem medidas fortes no OE2021" (parte II) (parte III). Um desfile doentio ...
"É fundamental que o Estado perceba que não compete aos operadores privados fazer este investimento sozinhos,
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O OE2021 devia conter medidas de apoio ao emprego e ao comércio
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Primeiro, o Estado devia intervir na área dos investimentos,
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O papel do Estado deveria ser o de
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É expectável que o OE2021 possa aportar medidas que permitam revitalizar tecido económico, empresas e empregabilidade, minimizando os impactos da crise
...
Esta revolução obriga a investimento em I&D que precisa de apoios públicos, pois os montantes são elevados e o prazo de recuperação muito longo
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É da maior importância que o OE2021 tenha foco particular no estímulo ao consumo
..."
Eu confesso, já estou numa outra fase... neste soberbo podcast fui levado a recordar um velho costume do passado: Os Hunos cercaram Constantinopla. As muralhas era imponentes e a cidade tinha muita água e mantimentos. Por fim, os Romanos do Oriente e os Hunos entenderam-se, a cidade pagou um montante e os Hunos deixaram-nos em paz. Algo que os Romanos do Ocidente faziam e fizeram por centenas de anos para manter os bárbaros do outro lado do Reno.
Por isso:
Caro Joaquim, já não consigo ter esse espírito. Prefiro que eles, os do costume, roubem, entretenham-se em projectos mirabolantes e, no entretanto, deixem-nos a nós, a microeconomia longe de lesboa, em paz. Roubem, mas não atrapalhem. Roubem, mas não compliquem
— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 25, 2020
Cada vez mais a nomenklatura faz-me ver a semelhança com os reinos que pagavam um imposto aos hunos para não serem invadidos e arrasados.
— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 28, 2020
O truque do meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras é adequado a este tempo...
Há dias o amigo D. Pedro IV recordou-me a clássica estória sobre a cláusula van Hallen.
Na sexta-feira estive numa fábrica onde, mais uma vez, me contaram um episódio típico do calçado em Portugal.
Uma ficha técnica segue para a produção com toda a informação necessária. As pessoas na produção, porque não estão habituadas a ler, porque estão habituadas a seguir ordens, não olham para a ficha técnica. Pensam:
- Ah! já fizemos este modelo. Eu sei como é!
O que não sabem, porque não lêem a ficha técnica, é que este modelo, porque é para um cliente diferente, em vez de uma sola preta, leva uma sola azul, ou em vez de uma fivela dourada, leva uma fivela prateada.
Ao ouvir o episódio recordei a minha lição sobre as promessas de prémio nos relatórios. Depois de ler uma estória num livro de Tom Peters apliquei-a na minha situação. Tinha entrado para uma empresa, e foi-me dito que tinha de escrever um relatório mensal em inglês, durante o primeiro ano, com o relato das minhas actividades nesse mês. Ao fim de um ano escrevi algo deste género no referido relatório mensal:
"Com este relatório, finalizo os 12 relatórios mensais solicitados aquando da minha entrada para a empresa. Assim, deixarei de elaborar este relatório a menos que o contrário me seja solicitado."
Passados uns meses o director-geral a propósito de não sei o quê disse-me:
- Ó Carlos Cruz você deixou de escrever os relatórios mensais...
Aí, contei-lhe o que tinha escrito no décimo segundo relatório. Ele ficou vermelho e começou a rir-se:
- Agora é que você me apanhou!
Tom Peters apresentava um teste para saber se um trelatório era lido por alguém, escrever algures no meio do relatório:
"Entrega-se uma nota de x dólares a quem a vier pedir a fulano x"
O que propus ao meu interlocutor na fábrica de calçado foi começar a introduzir aleatoriamente a mesma mensagem nas fichas técnicas:
"Entrega-se uma nota de 5 euros a quem a vier reclamar com base nesta ficha técnica!"
Isto é uma correcção, não uma acção correctiva. Uma acção correctiva passará por um trabalho de fundo que crie pessoas habituados a espírito crítico nas linhas de produção.
"we try to make larger markets and try to lean things out, but I believe that one of the reasons we have no growth is because nobody's helping people make progress and progress is defined as saving money or being more efficient, or being more effective, but not about doing something something better and different and so I believe that one of the things that we have to really work on in the future is understanding what does progress look like, what is you know at some point, where we all going and so to me I spend a lot of now... I'll say in the business I have to really try to define what is progress for people."
Outro podcast muito bom, cheio de sumo - "Understanding Your Customer & Defining Progress - Interview with Bob Moesta"
"This is how naive I was in the beginning. I’d see a problem, you’d pick up the rope and say ‘hey I can solve this problem’. And little did I realize that there was just a big mountain of crap on the other side. The reality is that there’s a simplistic approach to how we think. Sometimes people just dive in and do the first thing off the top of their head. And what I’ve realized is you have to get through the complexity to get to simplicity on the other side. It’s one of the only quotes I’ve memorized and when I heard it, it really rocked me which is Oliver Wendell Holmes who is a Supreme Court justice from 1902 said “I wouldn’t give a fig for simplicity on this side of complexity, but I’d give my life for simplicity on the other side of complexity”."
Trecho precioso!
Pensei logo na quantidade de empresas que apresenta planos simples para atingir objectivos ambiciosos sem nunca passar pela fase da complexidade
Trecho retirado de "The 5 Skills Of An Innovator | Bob Moesta, The ReWired Group | BoS USA 2018"
"Through the years we’ve uncovered the six stages a buyer must walk through before making a purchase:
First Thought—creating the space in the brain
Passive Looking—learning
Active Looking—seeing the possibilities
Deciding—making the trade-offs and establishing value
Onboarding—the act of doing the JTBD, meeting expectations and delivering satisfaction and value
Ongoing Use—building the habit
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When conducting interviews, we imagine the events in their life like huge dominoes falling. We need to understand the buyer at a very granular level. What happened that made them say, “Today’s the day I am going to…”? We need to understand causality. What are the events which pushed and pulled them to move forward or backward? It is an important concept. The customer has a certain set of systems for how they buy, and our process needs to feed their world to help them make progress. So when interviewing, we continue until we can imagine the dominoes in their life tipping over, moving them along the timeline.
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Once you have the first thought, you’ve opened up the space in your mind for the information. Without this first thought there is no demand.
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Four ways to create a first thought
- Ask a good question…and not give an answer
- Tell a story
- Give a new metric
- State the obvious"
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
Because you make art you become an artist not the other way around.
While implementing an environmental management system (EMS) it is very easy for me to remember ISO 9000:2015 definition of management system and think about an EMS as a portfolio of projects aligned with the strategic orientation and with the purpose of improving the interaction of an organization with the environment.
So, instead of an EMS that also generates improvement projects you can have a set of improvement projects that constitute, that give body to an EMS. Let us see how:
You go into reality and you determine the environmental aspects and impacts (clause 6.1.2).
You go into reality and you determine relevant interested parties and you determine their relevant needs and expectations (clause 4.2)
Based on the environmental aspects you determine the mandatory compliance obligations (clause 6.1.3).
Based on the relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties you determine the voluntary commitments that your organization will assume and treat as mandatory compliance obligations (clause 6.1.3).
Perform an evaluation of compliance (clause 9.1.2) to determine any situation of partial or total non-compliance.
Na semana passada ao passar na A1 a norte de Santarém tive ocasião de ver aquele triste espectáculo do olival superintensivo. Como não recordar "Azeite e Trás-Os-Montes".
Por isso, ao ler "Vimioso e Bragança querem valorizar oliveira Santulhana tradicionalmente desprezada" fiquei meio dividido: Agradado pela ideia e pelo que ela representa, mas preocupado por quem a promove.
"O Instituto Politécnico de Bragança (IPB) vai dedicar investigação a uma variedade de oliveira tradicionalmente desprezada, mas que se tem revelado pela qualidade dos azeites produzidos nos concelhos de Vimioso e Bragança.
Os dois municípios formalizaram esta sexta-feira uma parceria com a academia para fazer a caracterização e valorização da oliveira Santulhana, originária do concelho de Vimioso e praticamente circunscrita a este e ao município vizinho de Bragança.
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É uma variedade que dá uns azeites particulares, que tradicionalmente não se consideravam azeites de muita qualidade, mas que o trabalho que temos vindo a fazer no politécnico em torno dos azeites da nossa região tem revelado que esta variedade tem um grande potencial de dar azeites de muita qualidade”, explicou.
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Os azeites produzidos com esta variedade de azeitona “são muito frutados, com característicos aromáticas muito particulares e que os tornam particularmente apreciados, sobretudo nos nichos de elevada qualidade”, segundo disse."
Pena que não seja promovida por gente com skin-in-the-game!
"Part of the “Five Whys” is to take a step back and not talk about what the customer wants from the solution perspective. For example, people might say I want the car door to be easy to open and close. Now, if you focus on the door, you have a limited set of solutions. As opposed to looking at it more broadly and thinking about making it easier to get in and out of the car generally. Now you are not just looking at the door but the placement of the seatbelt, etc., because you stop assuming you know the solution. It’s about seeing the bigger picture.
We use this methodology when interviewing our customers to get to the root of the problem they are trying to solve. Companies are selling drills instead of holes because they do not ask why enough times. They sit in boardrooms thinking of their product’s features and benefits and fail to see how it fits into their customer’s lives because they simply fail to ask why. You cannot design the way your customer makes progress; you need to understand their definition of progress and design your process around it. People don’t buy products; they hire them to make progress in their lives.
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Let’s define JTBD. It starts when people are in a struggling circumstance, and they want to make progress.
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building their solution starts with understanding their situation and why they are thinking about making progress in the first place, as well as what their vision of progress looks like.
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Eliminating the struggle is not progress, them overcoming the struggle is progress. Both pieces are critical; the key to understanding causation is found in the circumstance and the outcome. Value is relative to your circumstance and determined by where you start compared to where you end. Circumstance is a big part of understanding causation. Their circumstance is a reference point for their progress, without understanding their starting place you cannot design their progress.
Great sales begins with understanding the JTBD by your customer and the progress they are trying to make: What is the situation they are in? What’s the outcome they seek? What are the tradeoffs they are willing to make? We do this by interviewing people who’ve purchased your product or services and understanding why. And why is relative to what’s going on in their life that caused them to say, “Today’s the day…” But it’s not an imagined customer or persona as we explained in chapter one, it’s real buyers. And the why you are looking for has nothing to do with your features and benefits. It’s about the customer and the progress they are trying to make in their life. To build a meaningful understanding of why people buy, we must create language, a story, and a model of their struggling moment."
"Buying is very different than selling. The best sales process mimics the progress that people are trying to make in their lives. Selling is clearly a supply-side perspective, while buying sits on the demand-side.
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What’s so special about their approach? It’s a worldview of selling from the customer’s vantage point, which we call demand-side selling.
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Because the supply-side is so worried about efficiency and effectiveness, it’s become all about building one model that works for many people. But one size does not fit all! Aiming for average hurts customer satisfaction, because when you strive for average you end up pleasing no one.
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Supply-side: The focus is on the product or service and its features and benefits. How will I sell it? Who needs my product?
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Demand-side: The focus is on understanding the buyer and the user. How do people buy and how do they make progress? What’s causing them to make a purchase? You design your go-to-market strategy around the buyer’s worldview, not the product. You are looking at the world through a real buyer’s eyes. It’s understanding value from the customer-side of the world, as opposed to the product-side of the world. Demand-side selling is understanding what progress people want to make, and what they are willing to pay to make that progress. Our product or services are merely part of their solution. You create pull for your product because you are focused on helping the customer. Demand-side selling starts with the struggling moment. It’s the theory that people buy when they have a struggling moment and think, “Maybe, I can do better.
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Traditional economics thinks supply and demand are connected. But we would say that demand is independent of supply. Demand is about a fundamental struggle. Supply and demand are two completely different perspectives in sales.
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The struggling moment is the seed for all new sales.
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Companies get sucked into thinking about the features the customer wants, as opposed to the outcomes they’re seeking. It’s the basic premise of cause and effect. Understanding the context by which people value your product will make it easier for you to understand how to sell your product. Only your customer can determine your value!"
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
"Every company believes it is customer-centric. However, most of them are product- and service-centric first, focusing on how to enhance their offerings (e.g., adding services to gas stations) rather than putting themselves in their customers’ shoes (and realizing that people want to avoid the gas station altogether).
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Often customers have difficulty articulating the problem they are trying to solve. Therefore, it is critical to dig deeper to understand the root cause of customers’ challenges.
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Understand customers’ problems
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Identify pain points
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Look beyond your product
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Mapping customer journeys has become a norm in the industry. However, almost every company starts and ends its consideration of the journey with its product [Moi ici: Um excelente ponto!] — say a car or a mortgage. This can miss what’s driving customers in the first place, which can be highly useful in understanding consumer motivation and potential opportunities to add value."
A service-dominant logic usa esta figura:
"A sales funnel based on the probability someone will buy, without understanding what causes them to buy, made no sense to me. In my experience, customers bought on their terms. I didn’t convince them to do anything; they convinced themselves. It was their moment of struggle that became the seed that caused customers to switch to my product or service. We are all creatures of habit, and we will keep doing what we have been doing unless we have that struggling moment. So I flipped the lens, stopped trying to push my product, and started to understand what caused people to pull new things into their lives
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There’s a different way to sell, and it starts with helping people make progress.
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JTBD is the theory that people don’t buy products, they hire them to make progress in their life.
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Great salespeople are real people: they ask questions, they listen, they learn, and they help you make progress in your life. Salespeople help customers solve problems and make progress in their life. Instead of pushing their product, they represent their product and how it fits into your life. Sales is about perspective—think concierge, mentor, or a coach, not an order taker. It’s about looking through your customer’s eyes, seeing what they see, hearing what they hear, and understanding what they mean. And there’s nothing icky about helping people. Period! The world could use a little more help.
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The struggling moment is the seed for all innovation!
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great salespeople don’t sell; they help. They listen, understand what you want to achieve, and help you achieve it. A better title would be “concierge.
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And you’ll learn it’s not about you, it’s about their progress. It will teach you to listen more intently, be more curious, and truly understand what your customers are saying."
Trechos retirados de “Demand-Side Sales 101: Stop Selling and Help Your Customers Make Progress” de Bob Moesta.
Esta semana mais uma vítima, não da COVID, mas de um modelo de negócio que na minha opinião (conservador financeiro nos negócios) nunca teria sucesso: "Undandy fica descalça. Uma das jovens promessas da indústria portuguesa de calçado entra em PER" (li algures que tem mais de 6 milhões de euros de dívida e que o principal credor é o Facebook).
Desde 2006 ou 2007 que escrevo por aqui: Profit is Sanity, Volume is Vanity
Neste postal de 2007 refiro a minha compra de “Manage for Profit, Not for Market Share: A Guide to Greater Profits in Highly Contested Markets” de Hermann Simon, Frank Bilstein e Frank Luby ... livros que nos marcam e nos moldam.
Entretanto, ontem à noite li, de Hermann Simon, "Le profit ne doit pas devenir un gros mot!". Malheureusement, ici au Portugal, cela s'est passé il y a longtemps.
Portugal é o país em que só se fala de distribuição, raramente se fala em criação de riqueza. Como não se cria riqueza suficiente distribui-se com base em endividamento que alguém terá de pagar, a bem ou a mal. E vai-se distribuindo cada vez menos por cada vez mais... E não estamos condenados... nunca esqueço esta descoberta do tempo do confinamento acerca da Toyota.
Hermann Simon receia que no seu próprio país a criação de riqueza se torne algo politicamente incorrecto. Assim, lançou recentemente um livro só em alemão sobre o tema.
"se déclarer pour la maximisation des profits constitue aujourd'hui une exhortation bien singulière sinon dangereuse à assumer publiquement pour un chef d'entreprise.
Le profit est pourtant la mesure la plus importante du succès d'une entreprise, a fortiori en situation de crise lorsqu'il est question de sa survie, comme aujourd'hui avec la pandémie de Covid-19.
Or, il tend à devenir un tabou du monde international des affaires, qui devient presque complexé de faire du profit.
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Concéder à l'air du temps pourrait être dommageable, car maximiser le profit constitue la raison d'être économique de l'entreprise. Et contrairement à une idée reçue, il a une éthique. Nitin Nohria, doyen de la Harvard Business School, dit avec bon sens que « la première responsabilité éthique d'un chef d'entreprise est de faire des bénéfices ». Peter Drucker, le confirme : « Il n'y a pas d'opposition entre profit et responsabilité sociale. L'entreprise qui réalise un profit ne vole pas la société. »
Et il est funeste de tenter d'opposer les actionnaires aux parties prenantes comme on tente de le faire aujourd'hui. La maximisation du profit permet justement de créer un halo vertueux autour de l'entreprise, un « jeu à somme positive » car tout le monde gagne avec une entreprise profitable, qui investit, embauche… et alimente les caisses de l'Etat.
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Ce rapide diagnostic doit achever de nous convaincre qu'il faut absolument réorienter les entreprises vers la recherche de profitabilité afin de maximiser notamment l'effet des politiques de relance en France et outre-Rhin. Seule la réhabilitation du profit y parviendra…"
Ontem ao final da tarde saí de Santarém, parei em Coimbra para visitar pessoas muito queridas e regressei a casa já depois das 20h30. Em vez de assistir ao relato do Sporting que já perdia por um a zero, liguei o ipad ao sistema audio do carro e ouvi em diferido o último Mel Talks, desta vez com Alexandre Relvas.
"We observe a high level of specialisation in Ireland’s export structure, coupled with high income per capita as compared to the complexity level of its industrial activities (as captured by its Economic Complexity Index). We identify a dual structure within the economy, with domestic and foreign-owned exporters exhibiting distinct characteristics. In the latter case, we observe a recent consolidation and reduction in complexity level by the foreign-owned high tech pharmaceuticals and electronics sectors, with limited evidence of spill-overs leading to growth of domestic firms in these sectors. This contrasts with a dynamic and growing domestic food and agriculture sector, which is well positioned for continued expansion of Ireland’s indigenous activities into more complex goods....Ireland’s domestic economy is driven mainly by services (constituting over 60% of GDP), with manufacturing a growing component of an overall declining industrial sector. Figure 1 shows that exports of goods and services are high (and growing) as compared to other countries with a similar GDP. Goods exports have traditionally been the dominant factor, but recently services exports – dominated by financial services and IT - have caught up with (and very recently overtaken) goods exports.A key component of its growth and industrial strategy, Ireland is a major recipient of net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to other countries at a similar GDP per capita as seen in Figure 1 of the Supplementary Information (SI), driven by a competitive tax regime and a young, highly educated and skilled labour force.
Given that a cluster of industries, namely chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electronics are mainly foreign-owned, and hence are not fully integrated into Ireland’s capability base"
