Ecossistemas, transitoriedade e a morte do regime (parte II)

Parte I.

Isto que se segue deve ser blasfémia para os crentes no Grande Planeador, no Grande Geometra:

"The actors in the system are continuously driving adaptation of the system. By the time we decide what to do, it is quite possible, if not likely, that the system has changed in a way that renders our decision obsolete by the time it is acted upon. And by the time we have figured that out, the system will have changed again. Because of that adaptability, our design principle must be to balance the desire for perfection with the drive for improvement.
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In a machine model, the pursuit of perfection makes sense. It is sensible to analyze the machine in every detail in order to understand how to maximize its performance and, once that optimum performance level has been achieved, then defend against any attempt to change the way the machine works—because it is performing as well as it possibly can. At this point, any failure in the machine’s performance is likely to be interpreted as pilot error or not giving the machine enough input or time. This is what philosophers call a justificationist stance. There is a perfect answer out there to be sought, and when that perfect answer is found, the search is over. The task then turns from searching for the perfect answer to protecting the perfect answer against any attempt to alter it. It feels noble to aim for, fight for, and protect perfection.
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However, in an adaptive system, there is no perfect destination; there is no end to the journey. The actors in it keep adapting to how it works. In nature, this happens reflexively, as with a tree that turns to the sunlight due to the force of nature, and by growing taller obscures the sunlight for those in its increasing shadow. In the economy, adaptation “happens reflectively. People take in the available inputs and make choices, and those choices influence the choices and behaviors of the other humans in the system.
...
So, although the pursuit of perfection may seem like a noble goal, in a complex adaptive system it is delusional and dangerous. In a cruel paradox, seeking perfection does not enhance the probability of achieving said perfection. In a complex adaptive system, it is not possible to know in advance the organized, sequential steps toward perfection. Guesses can be made. Better and worse vectors can be reasonably chosen. But perfection is an unrealistic direct goal, with the problematic downside of creating a paradise for gamers. As justificationists staunchly defend a system they perceive to be perfect, gamers are only given more time and space to enrich themselves at the system’s long-term expense."

Trechos retirados de "When More Is Not Better" de Roger Martin 

Acreditam mesmo?

O artigo que me alertou para a saída do novo livro de Roger Martin, "Overcoming America’s Obsession With Economic Efficiency":

"It explains why the pursuit of efficiency stems from the notion of firms as complicated machines and attempting to maximize their efficiency, rather than as complex adaptive systems, within markets which themselves are also complex adaptive systems."

Um tema clássico deste blogue e da minha guerra profissional.

No início do livro pode ler-se:

"Professor Wassily Leontief and I almost overlapped at Harvard University. Leontief, who won the 1973 Nobel Prize for Economics,
...
To Leontief, the US economy was a very big, complicated machine, fundamentally not unlike a car. A car has many subsystems—power train, steering, cooling/heating/ventilation, entertainment, safety, and so forth—each of which can be understood independently and then pieced together to produce the desired vehicle with the desired characteristics. Across the operation of that vehicle, the input-output equations are clear. When you push the gas pedal, the car speeds up. When you slam on the brakes, the car comes to a halt. As with a car, the inputs and outputs of the various subsystems of the economy could be mapped out and understood. Because he saw the economy as an understandable and analyzable machine, Leontief was a fan of planning, and during the economically challenged 1970s he argued that national planning might be the only hope for US economic policy.[Moi ici: Enquanto lia estas linhas ao longo da marginal marítima de Gaia, no silêncio das 6h30 da manhã, visualizei um ex-governador do Banco de Portugal, Vítor Constâncio, a falar sobre as vantagens e virtudes do "socialismo científico". Recordei as minhas guerras contra os que vêem a economia como se fosse física newtoniana"]
...
While I was taking my undergraduate economics courses, I was naive as to the power of models to shape actions and the power of metaphors to drive the adoption of models. I believed that the models I was being taught were descriptions of how the economy actually works. It took me a while to figure out that those models are no more than a theory of how the economy might work, if the economy were, in fact, like a car. And it is because we are all so convinced that the US economy is like a car that we stick with models like Leontief’s even when those models no longer generate accurate predictions concerning the economic outcomes that will follow our interventions.

Though not cognizant of it at the time, I was exclusively taught “neoclassical Keynesian economics."

Como é que dizia Napoleão? Agora pensemos nos governos que se sucedem e nas fórmulas que os orientam. Pensem nos milhares de milhões que vão ser despejados na economia para, supostamente criar uma nova economia... sei que muitos pensam em aceder à gamela, mas os outros? Acreditam mesmo que uma economia se rege top-down de forma virtuosa?

Trechos retirados de “When More Is Not Better”

Think “outcome before output”

The first time I used the expression on my blog:

Think “input before output”

It was in October 2017 in "it took a holistic approach towards how to play". Since then I have used it here dozens and dozens of times, for example in:

• Privileging inputs over outputs (partt XII) (a serie of 12 blogposts in Portuguese)
• Focus from output to input (in Portuguese)

This week I started to think that the expression is not the best for what I intend to convey. In this blogpost, "Beyond product versus service", I put these two definitions of ISO 9000: 2015:

• Product - output of an organization that can be produced without any transaction taking place between the organization and the customer
• Service - output of an organization with at least one activity necessarily performed between the organization and the customer

When an organization focuses on its output, it thinks about product. You do not need interactions:

At the limit, the organization vomits as much as possible, wants to increase the pace at which produces in order to lower unit costs and be more competitive.

What do I mean by focusing on input?

Assume that what is the output of the organization is actually the customer's input. Something that the client will use to process in his life, in his own way.

However, now I realize that there is another word and another position for what I want to communicate ...

Think “outcome before output”

When thinking about the client's outcome there must be interaction with the client. Customers are all different and look for and value different things. Only by interacting with them is it possible to understand what each one values. Outcome is not a physical result, it is not a noun. Outcome is not the bottle and the wine that you drank, the outcome is the party is the good mood between friends.

Of course, if we are in a B2B relationship, our client, in addition to his outcome, will also have his output:

And if it is a B2B relationship, the organization should also consider their client's client and their outcomes:

And here we start to get into another classic theme of my blog: ecosystems. In an ecosystem, the objective is no longer to maximize value for the customer, but to maximize value for the ecosystem. Therefore, we can reach an ecosystem in which the customer is a prisoner of the relationship that the organization has developed with the customer's customer:

And I return to a blogpost from March 2007 (in Portuguese)

Think “outcome before output”

A primeira vez que usei aqui no blog a expressão:

Think “input before output”

Foi em Outubro de 2017 em "it took a holistic approach towards how to play". Desde então usei-a aqui dezenas e dezenas de vezes como, por exemplo em:

• Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XII) (uma série de 12 postais)
• Foco do output para o input

Esta semana comecei a pensar que a expressão não é a melhor para o que pretendo transmitir. Há tempos, neste postal, "Beyond product versus service", coloquei estas duas definições da ISO 9000:2015:

• Product - output of an organization that can be produced without any transaction taking place between the organization and the customer
• Service - output of an organization with at least one activity necessarily performed between the organization and the customer

Quando uma organização se concentra no seu output, pensa em produto. Não precisa de interacções:

No limite podemos dizer que vomita o mais possível, quer aumentar o ritmo a que produz por forma a baixar custos unitários e ser mais competitiva.

O que querodizer com focar no input?

Partir do princípio que aquilo que é o output da organização é na verdade o input do cliente. Algo que o cliente vai usar para processar na sua vida, à sua maneira.

No entanto, agora percebo que há outra palavra e outra posição para o que quero comunicar...

Think “outcome before output”

Ao pensar em outcome do cliente tem de haver interacção com o cliente. Os clientes são todos diferentes e procuram e valorizam coisas diferentes. Só interagindo com eles é que é possível perceber o que é que cada um valoriza. Outcome não é um resultado físico, não é um substantivo. Outcome não é a garrafa e ovino que se bebeu, outcome é a festa é a boa disposição entre amigos.

Claro que se estivermos numa relação B2B o nosso cliente além do seu outcome também terá o seu output:

E se é uma relação B2B a nossa organização também deverá considerar o cliente do nosso cliente e os seus outcomes:

E aqui começamos a entrar num outra tema clássico deste blogue: os ecossistemas.

Num ecossistema o objectivo não é mais maximizar o valor para o cliente, mas maximizar o valor para o ecossistema. Por isso, podemos chegar a um ecossistema em que o cliente é prisioneiro da relação que a organização desenvolveu com o cliente do cliente:

E volto a Março de 2007.

Apparatchiks em todo o lado

A ISO 9001:2015 convida as organizações a determinarem os riscos e oportunidades e a actuarem com base nos mais relevantes. Por isso, o meu amigo @Peliteiro, experiente auditor ISO 9001 na área da saúde e, nos dias de hoje, verdadeiro combatente na primeira linha, lançou-me a questão:

Boa pergunta! No entanto, o que já aprendi é que melhor do que prever, é a velocidade de resposta, é a velocidade de aprendizagem das organizações perante o evento em si

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 28, 2020

Acerca da velocidade de aprendizagem e resposta deixem-me contar esta história:
Conheço empresário que depois de ver o estado em que um seu trabalhador ficou depois da feira de calçado em Milão, contactou a Protecção Civil da sua cidade a pedir para serem tomadas medidas. Começou por um contacto telefónico no dia 25 de Fevereiro. Responderam-lhe que tivesse juízo, que era um alarmista.

No dia 26 de Fevereiro enviou comunicação formal para Protecção Civil da sua cidade. Protecção Civil que reuniu a 6 de Março para concluir que não havia problema.

Entretanto, acabo de ler na primeira página do NYT de hoje:

"The alarm system was ready. Scarred by the SARS epidemic that erupted in 2002, China had created an infectious disease reporting system that officials said was world-class: fast, thorough and, just as important, immune from meddling.
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Hospitals could input patients’ details into a computer and instantly notify government health authorities in Beijing, where officers are trained to spot and smother contagious outbreaks before they spread.
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It didn’t work.
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After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system — keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response.
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The central health authorities first learned about the outbreak not from the reporting system but after unknown whistle-blowers leaked two internal documents online.
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Even after Beijing got involved, local officials set narrow criteria for confirming cases, leaving out information that could have provided clues that the virus was spreading among humans. Hospitals were ordered to count only patients with a known connection to the source of the outbreak, the seafood market. Doctors also had to have their cases confirmed by bureaucrats before they were reported to higher-ups.

Trecho retirado de "China Had a Fail-Safe Way to Track Contagions. Officials Failed to Use It."

For frequent future use - a reminder that predictability is for suckers

The economy is a complex system.

A complex system is anything but linear.

It is not because we change an input, or because we change something within the system, that we can get or modify an output to get a desired result.

When acting on a system you can never guess what the result will be. In my country we have a saying that goes like this: “Hell is full of good intentions”

That's why I wrote some days ago:

“You know how scared I am of the fragilistas, the naive interventionistas. You know how I learned to appreciate the Via Negativa: first, do no harm!
You know how scared I am of social engineers who want to change the world.
...
With biology, innovation has to go with small experiments”

It is so easy to forget this.

So easy.

So easy to delude ourselves with ideas about our power, our predictability powers ...

The truth is that when we dive into the complex system we have this:

This blogpost, written on this day, is for me to be able to come back to it regularly for a bath of humility, for a good and sound slap in the face - in the style of Templar initiation.

Beware of system interventions, beware of the illusion of power and predictability.

2019 gave me an excellent slap in the face when I realized once again that a complex system does not think. A complex system does not pursue goals. A complex system is like a river, it runs away from constraints. When actors in a system act on it, they alter the set of existing constraints, and what they hoped to achieve is often torpedoed by the system, which ultimately found an easier alternative.

Remember what the first settlers of Australia did? They introduced rabbits to maintain their English hunting tradition. Rabbits discovered a habitat where they had no predators and multiplied exponentially. So the settlers decided to introduce foxes, traditional rabbit predators. But foxes, once introduced to Australia, discovered a whole panoply of prey much easier to hunt than rabbits.

For years I believed that the demographic evolution in Portugal, and the continued expansion of the emigration of people of value who do not want to live in a socialist-extractivist country, would bring a time when companies would be forced to raise wages beyond productivity in order to capture workers, a precious resource. Raising wages beyond productivity is a dangerous policy. This policy would have two consequences: shutting down the less competitive companies, and forcing companies to move up the value ladder to compensate for the rising cost of people. Therefore, I have long devalued the issue of the national minimum wage because companies would have lack of people as the most important constraint.

And 2019 ended my theory !!!

By the way, this theory I was hoping for, based on demography, is the same as that followed by the current Portuguese government and the left wing parties, with a small-big detail, while my driving force was demography, theirs is the national minimum wage.

How did 2019 destroy this theory of mine?

The day I realized that it is so easy for a company to import people and get around the national minimum wage. For example, on the last day of 2019 when I visited a certain small company, I watched in amazement at a conversation about the virtues of importing Brazilian versus Colombian versus Venezuelan workers.

You will tell me that they will have to pay the national minimum wage to these workers. No, that's the big slap trick I got. I already had as a neighbor of my office a company that hired Portuguese carpenters for construction works in Belgium and the Netherlands. These carpenters were paid at 12 € per hour (2016 values). They made a contract with this Portuguese company in Portugal, received their wage in Portugal, but worked in Belgium or the Netherlands. How much will a Portuguese carpenter recruited in the Netherlands receive to work in the Netherlands? What I heard in the corridor of the offices where my company was based is being done with workers from Asia and Latin America. The workers are here, they work here, but they are not employees of the company where they work, so they do not receive the Portuguese national minimum wage, they come to provide a service to the Bangladeshi company, their real employer.

I who detest eucalyptus trees and their associated DDTs (Portuguese initials for Owners Of This All, big companies with huge power and benefitting from special "services" from the government), sometimes marvel and tip my hat at eucalyptus trees because they seem to have the will and thought, they seem to have goals just as nature, evolution has prepared them to take advantage of their apparent weakness before fire.

We know nothing about complex systems, stop. We can only be conservative, be pragmatic, do a little experimentation, and observe results. Then back off when things go wrong, or less well, or keep going when things go in the right direction.

Blogposts list on the theme in 2019:

• Uma bofetada que recebo como um aviso (August)
•  Bofetadas e locus de controlo - produtividade é que não. (November) 
•  Mais bofetadas e a turbulência em curso (November)
• And the american source behind this series of blogposts Curiosidade do dia - comunismo e Chega (parte III) (December)

"Offering as input"

A continuar a minha leitura de "Prime movers" de Rafel Martinez e Johan Wallin apanhei esta figura:

Como não sorrir ao encontrar naquele eixo das ordenadas:

• Offering as output
• Offering as input

Recordar:

• Foco do output para o input

Acerca da co-criação de valor

"In co-productive terms, value is manifested thanks to the 'enabling' which the supplier brings to the customer's own value creating activity. By 'enabling' we mean 'supporting', or 'making possible'.[Moi ici: Tudo a ver com o uso da oferta como um input a ser processado pelo cliente na sua vida. A mesma oferta é processada por diferentes tipos de clientes de diferentes maneiras e, por isso, terá valores diferentes para cada tipo de clientes. Se a mesma oferta está disponível no mesmo local para todos os tipos de clientes, alguns vão considerar a oferta como demasiado cara, ou como suspeitosamente barata. Admitindo que possa fazer sentido trabalhar para mais do que um tipo de cliente, talvez faça sentido usar marcas diferentes, ainda que o 'hardware' seja o mesmo, para enviar diferentes mensagens e sinais para diferentes tipos de clientes]
...
Rather than being objective or subjective, interactive value is in fact, `actual'. It is 'actual' in the sense that it requires action on the part of both the customer, and his or her customers, and the supplier for the value to become (actually) possible. Once the actions take place, they become facts. Actual value is thus dependent on 'action' and interaction, which upon taking place 'actually', becomes 'factual'. With this understanding of customer valuation, the notion of 'end customer' — a customer at the end of a value chain that passively receives the value produced by the supplier — has lost its significance. [Moi ici: Isto não invalida que certos tipos de clientes não saibam, ou não precisem, ou não queiram criar mais valor com uma oferta. Porque a noção de valor não é a do produtor, mas a daquele que vai operar a oferta com um fim em vista. Como comprar azeite virgem extra de marca de nicho, para depois só o usar para fazer refogados] Somebody buys an offering, seeking to co-create value with others, for themself, for the other, and/or for third parties. We buy in order to create value, with others or in relationship to them. And we seek value-creating opportunities, which guide much of our buying. Understanding these value-creating opportunities for one's customers becomes the true challenge for any seller. [Moi ici: O vendedor pode fazer o papel de consultor, de formador do cliente, ajudando-o a perceber como uma determinada oferta pode fazer mais sentido e ser mais útil para a criação de valor percebido realmente como tal] The interface between one's customers and their own different customers, establishes the value that one's customers are seeking to produce. It is the supplier's role of actually helping customers to create value (with their counterparts) that convinces a customer to buy from that supplier. [Moi ici: A importância de ir para além da relação diádica e perceber o ecossistema do negócio]
...
The connotations that a given interaction holds for us, how we value it, are subjected to the particulars of the situation in which the interaction takes place. ... Offerings are thus valued 'contingently', that is, depending on which they are connected.
...
The offering consequently is not something that exists, independently, in itself. It both resulted from and contributes to a bundle of activities that enable the buyer to perform his or her activities in a different way than if the offering had not been bought. It is the outcome of these intended activities that creates some form of satisfaction for the buyer.
...
Facilitating customer value creation is, within the co-productive point of view, the raison d'être for a firm. This perspective shifts the focus of strategic attention from actor or 'activity' to interaction."
...
What competes is the offering, not the actor. Offerings are the output produced by one (or several) actor(s) creating value — the `producer' or 'supplier' — that becomes an input to another actor (or actors) creating value — the 'customer'....Offerings are thus both outputs and inputs. Acknowledging and incorporating the specific individual requirements of each customer implies that customers cannot be simply treated en masse as anonymous, 'average', de-personalized 'product markets'. Customer requirements can be better understood by knowing how each customer is producing value for themself and in turn, for their customers. A company's offering have value to the degree that customers can use them as inputs to leverage their own value creation with their own counterparts."

TRechos retirados de "Prime Movers" de Rafael Ramirez e Johan Wallin. 

Foco do output para o input

Recordar esta imagem, acerca do ciclo de vida de um rolamento desde que é vendido, daqui:

Resolvi encomendar um daqueles livros em 2ª mão que custam 0,01€ com mais 5€ de portes. Desta feita foi  "Prime Movers" de Rafael Ramirez e Johan Wallin. Um livro de 1998.

Um livro que ás vezes me faz lembrar uma leitura dos tempos do ensino secundário em que me pus a ler S. Tomás Aquino. Achei que ia ser uma seca, mas fiquei admirado por encontrar uma linguagem simples para expor alguns problemas filosóficos.

Ramirez e Wallin usam um vocabulário que hoje já está ultrapassado, mas conseguem ser perceptíveis e têm o mesmo efeito surpresa de ler um trabalho seminal. Os autores estão com algo verdadeiramente novo, não precisam de complicar para parecerem mais importantes.

Um livro começa com o exemplo da Xerox. Uma empresa que tinham um modelo de negócio baseado numa patente. O modelo era tão bem sucedido que a certa altura a justiça americana resolveu obrigar a empresa a partilhar a tecnologia. Isso deu cabo do modelo e obrigou a empresa a renascer com base num outro modelo baseado na qualidade. No entanto, esse modelo revelou-se muito fugaz e a empresa teve de repensar-se novamente. Foi a partir dessa nova reflexão que surgiu a "Document Company":

"The most important aspect of Kearns' decision was the focus on the document [Moi ici: Não mais o foco na tecnologia, não mais o foco naquilo que se produzia]. He and his team reasoned that paper was not going to go away, but that its use, its value logics, would change. Paper would be used less for creating, storing and transmitting documents, and more as a transient display medium for reading them and commenting on them.
And important risk was that with more convenient printers, documents would be printed out, thrown away, and then printed out again.
...
the real point [of the strategy] was that our customers are not interested in paper per se, but in the content on it: the document. If we focused on that [i.e. the document] and how to help them deal with it in paper or electronic form, our business would prosper no matter how technology evolved.
...
A graphic representation of this strategy, centered on customer value creation called 'the (customers') Document cycle', is shown ...

... Note that the 'copy' function is now one out of 16 items in customers' documenting. [Moi ici: Recordar a SKF na figura acima]
...
The Document Company concept shifted attention from the production of the offering to its role in customers' value creation.
...
We positioned ourselves as solution providers because we did not want to become a commodity hardware producer: i.e. people producing pieces of hardware ... this would have obliged us to compete on a low-cost basis. If we want to be a leading company, we have to deliver solutions. (Roger Leien)"

Alguns postais da série input em vez de output:

• Ecossistemas e serviço (Novembro de 2019)
• Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XII) (Fevereiro de 2019)

Fragilidade, flexibilidade, futuro e eficiência

Há anos que escrevo aqui no blogue sobre:

• O Evangelho do Valor;
• O eficientismo e o denominador;
• A eficácia e o numerador.

É uma linguagem que não costumo encontrar. O mainstream continua mergulhado no paradigma do século XX.

Pois bem, mão amiga mandou-me um recorte do livro "Sur/petition: The New Business Formula to Help You Stay Ahead of the Competition" de Edward de Bono:

"Efficiency is the ratio between input and output. It asks, what is the best output that I can get for the resources that I put in? For this required output, what is the minimum of resources that I must put in? If we think in terms of efficiency, we have to think in terms of input/output ratios.
Efficiency means productivity. Efficiency means no waste. Efficiency means getting the best out of our efforts, energy and resources. What can possibly be wrong about that?
To begin with, efficiency looks at input and output and does not look at the customer.
...
There are further problems with the concept of efficiency. Efficiency is measurable at one point in time. While efficiency has to be measurable, what may happen in the future cannot be measured. So it is left out of any efficiency equation. You design a suspension system for the bumps it encounters right now, not for all the possible bumps it might encounter in the future. Efficiency has always got to look backward and historically. It seeks to maximize what is now being done and what is now known.
When the future turns out not to be exactly as predicted, which is usually the case, efficiency may actually have gotten us into trouble. Very efficient businesses are often very brittle. There is no cushion and no give, because there has been no waste and no slack. Bamboo scaffolding around major buildings in Hong Kong seems flimsy and insubstantial. In fact, it is very strong because it is flexible, and stresses and strains are shared all around.
Efficiency is often the enemy of flexibility, and in today’s business world, flexibility is becoming more and more important."

Não é comum encontrar quem me acompanhe na crítica à paranóia do eficientismo.

E aquele "Very efficient businesses are often very brittle" é uma das lições que se pode tirar do postal dos almoços grátis de 2008:

Quanto mais pura é uma estratégia maior a rentabilidade, mas também maior o risco se o mundo muda.

Excerto de: Edward De Bono. “Sur/petition”. Apple Books. 

Ecossistemas e serviço

Um pequeno artigo com uma pérola para reflexão:

"The paper aims to introduce and conceptualize customer ecosystems as perspective on service. In this paper we discuss implications of considering not only the customer but the customer’s ecosystem when designing and operating service business. A customer ecosystem is defined as systems of actors related to the customer that are relevant concerning a specific service. [Moi ici: Isto faz-me pensar em Drucker. O cliente nunca compra o que o fornecedor pensa que está a vender. Um ecossistema não é uma função do que se produz, o output, mas uma função do input no sistema do cliente] This means that the customer ecosystem is defined based on a specific service. ... The customer’s ecosystem represents a constantly changing influencer affecting the customer’s activities and service experiences.
...
This paper proposes a customer ecosystem perspective on service. The focal point is not what the provider does to produce a service offering but what the customer does with the service as part of her own dynamic and collective ecosystem. [Moi ici: Cá está] ... Value is not created in providers’ service (eco)systems, instead value is experientially formed in the customer’s ecosystem. The core of customer ecosystems is not the co-creation of value in interaction, instead the core is how the customer configures meanings and constructs value in relation to her own ecosystem influenced by the customer’s goals, positions and roles and the whole social context."

Não é correcto desenhar um ecossistema do negócio sem equacionar a estratégia da organização, sem equacionar a sua proposta de valor e os clientes-alvo.

Na semana passada uma primeira reflexão sobre o tema numa empresa gerou um mapa como o que se segue:

Por onde circulam os produtos e serviços, por onde circula a informação, por onde circula o tempo.
Clientes, clientes dos clientes, utilizadores, prescritores, influenciadores.

Interessante que a proposta de valor do lado direito é bem diferente da do lado esquerdo.

Trechos retirados de "A customer ecosystem perspective on service" de Päivi Voima, Kristina Heinonen, Tore Strandvik, Karl-Jakob Mickelsson, Johanna Arantola-Hattab

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X e parte XI.

Recordar 

"Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs nada mais nada menos do que aplicar uma regra fundamental do Design Thinking.
.
Começar pelo que o cliente, ou o consumidor, ou o prescritor (começar por um actor do ecossistema) precisa ou quer fazer. Quais as suas motivações, que problema é que está a tentar resolver.[Moi ici: Recordar sobretudo a parte IX]
.
A Empatia é a chave. Não é acerca da nossa empresa. Precisamos da capacidade de perceber e partilhar os sentimentos de outros"

E considerar "How Not to Fail at Retail":

"Think About: Input Before Output
.
We all know how online shopping works: a customer can search for products based on various criteria. But an online store isn’t very good at asking probing questions to find out what a consumer really cares about.
.
As Frank asked me questions about what I wanted to accomplish with this new amplifier, he gathered key information before suggesting what the right solution would be. He put himself in a position to make recommendations to me that guitarcenter.com would never be able to make. And he helped me learn more about what was really important to me.
.
Could I have bought the amp on guitarcenter.com? Sure. But now that Frank has acted like a trusted advisor and helped me with my decision making, I’m much less likely to close the deal online. And truthfully, the only place I even considered making the purchase was in-person, with Frank.
...
As an in-store salesperson learns about a consumer’s needs and interests, they can do something that an online retailer can do in only the most rudimentary fashion: frame the product’s story in terms of the particular benefits to this individual customer.
.
An online product listing can tell of generic benefits, such as “gets your teeth their whitest” or “saves you $432 per year in energy costs.” An in-person retail experience can do so much more.
...
Brick and mortar retailers have lost many of the advantages they once had, including providing better access to products and the convenience of “location, location, location.” But in-person retailers still have the advantage of proximate, meaningful human contact to that allows them to better listen to customers, collaborate with them and personalize their purchase experience."

"usando o que produzimos como um input para o seu processamento"

O exemplo que se segue pode servir de reflexão aos que respondem com o seu produto ou serviço à pergunta sobre qual é o seu negócio. Os clientes não compram o que produzimos, os clientes procuram o que vão conseguir viver, experienciar, usando o que produzimos como um input para o seu processamento. Diferentes processamentos, diferentes contextos:

"You’re either pregnant or you’re not. And the market for pregnancy testing kits would appear to be similarly dichotomous: you either need a pregnancy test kit, or you don’t. If you do, you buy one and it helps you answer the first question in the affirmative or in the negative.
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So you’d think there’s not much to the market – not much market segmentation potential.
...
“why do consumers buy pregnancy kits?”
.
The answer was surprisingly far from obvious.
.
It revealed two very different kinds of buyer of pregnancy kits: those who hopefully await a positive result, and those who anxiously wish for a negative one.
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These two segments deserved to be served differently. So the product was launched differently for the two types of consumer: one for “the hopefuls” and another for “the fearfuls,” differentiated in name, packaging, pricing and in-store placement.
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For the fearfuls the product was named “RapidVue,” it came in a plain white clinical pack design, priced at $6.99 and displayed near the condoms in the contraception aisle.
.
For the hopefuls, on the other hand, the company created a pretty pink box labeled “Babystart,” featuring a gurgling, rosy-cheeked infant, priced 50% higher at $9.99 and sold near the ovulation predictor kits.
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It was a dramatically successful strategy for Quidel. A new way of segmenting the market was born."

Recordar:

• Preço e JTBD são contextuais (Novembro 2016)
• Conservas e pricing (Janeiro de 2014)

Trechos retirados de "Segmenting The Market For Power And Profit"

"people organize their brains with conversation"

Com quem conversa sobre a estratégia da sua empresa?

"The fact is important enough to bear repeating: people organize their brains with conversation. If they don’t have anyone to tell their story to, they lose their minds. Like hoarders, they cannot unclutter themselves. The input of the community is required for the integrity of the individual psyche. To put it another way: It takes a village to organize a mind. Much of what we consider healthy mental function is the result of our ability to use the reactions of others to keep our complex selves functional. We outsource the problem of our sanity."

Ler isto e recordar de imediato Popper e Espinosa:

"Popper tinha razão ao criticar Espinosa, de que vale a liberdade de pensamento se não há com quem conversar, discutir e aprender"

Peterson, Jordan B.. 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte IX)

Há dias visitei este armazém de uma empresa de calçado:

Estão a ver tudo arrumado, tudo em caixas identificadas, tudo localizado...

Quando se perguntava onde tinham arranjado a estrutura metálica X a resposta foi: na empresa G.

Quando se perguntava onde tinham arranjado a estrutura metálica Y a resposta foi: na empresa G.

Quando se perguntava onde tinham arranjado as prateleiras para caixas Z a resposta foi: na empresa G.

Quando se perguntava onde tinham arranjado os carros metálicos W a resposta foi: na empresa G.

A empresa G é uma serralharia industrial que fornece uma outra empresa do ramo da metalomecânica com que trabalho. Por acaso estacionei o carro perto da G. E ao olhar para o edifício da G. descobri um cartaz metálico na fachada onde listavam o que faziam:

• montras industriais
• estruturas metálicas
• ...

E pensei... tão século XX, tão concentrado no que se faz.

É o velho conceito deste blogue: Think input not output:

"servicification. This means that the emphasis, when we look at offerings, is no longer on the production process that historically created them as outputs, but in their property as inputs in the value creating process of the customers system."

É o que Alan Klement quer dizer quando mostra isto:

Outro exemplo.

A minha mulher resolveu começar a frequentar um ginásio. Como moramos próximo de um centro comercial, ontem à tarde metemo-nos ao caminho a pé e fomos a uma loja da Sport Zone. Que desilusão!!!

A minha mulher foi lá de propósito à procura de um saco ou de uma mochila para levar as coisas para o ginásio. Entretanto, no caminho começamos a visualizar o seu primeiro dia e demos connosco a enumerar outras coisas que lhe faltavam: um par de toalhas, um aloquete (bem à Puorto), ...

Percebi que a Sport Zone é um expositor de coisas relacionadas com desporto ou com um look desportivo, mas não pensa nas pessoas e no seu contexto. A cerca de 1 km daqui de casa há uma loja da Aldi, há tempos ao olhar para um expositor daquelas tralhas que mudam todas as semanas, reparei num artigo qualquer que parecia ser interessante para a limpeza de um carro. Ao mesmo tempo que classificava o artigo como interessante surgiu um outro pensamento: se calhar seria mais interessante se tivesse um outro a complementar, porque muitas pessoas vão gostar do 1º artigo, mas não comprar por falta do complemento. Desvio o olhar um bocado e ... reparo no tal complemento. Espertos.

Um dia a Sport Zone há-de descobrir que também ela vende inputs e não outputs: em que contexto é que se encontra alguém que vai:

• começar a frequentar um ginásio pela primeira vez? O que precisa?;
• começar a praticar campismo pela primeira vez? O que precisa?
• começar a praticar ciclismo de recreio para abater banhas, ou para melhorar a relação com os filhos, ou para aproveitar o Verão e ... O que precisa?

"Most people tend to describe what they do rather than the value they bring"

"“Why should this client meet with me?” is the first of theThree Magic Pre-call Questions.
.
The question gets right to the core of your value proposition. Something you offer brings measurable value to your clients.  What is that? The measurable value you bring to your clients is the reason they should meet with you. That is your Value Proposition.
.
I will be candid and say that it is embarrassingly common for salespeople, professionals and even large companies to not have a clear understanding of their value proposition and the value they bring to their clients.
...
Most people tend to describe what they do rather than the value they bring. This is a big mistake, [Moi ici: Um erro demasiado comum que temos combatido ao longo dos anos. O que os clientes compram não é o produto, o que os clientes compram é o que conseguem ganhar com a integração do que compram na sua vida. O nosso velho "think input e não output"] It is critical to know how to articulate the real value you deliver.
.
Your value proposition communicates (among other things) both the measurable value you deliver, as well as how you differ from competitors or alternatives in your same space.  Without a measurable value proposition it will be hard for you to command any kind of price for your solution because prospective clients have no discernible value to compare against your price. Without a value proposition your product or service simply looks like an additional cost.
.
Lack of a value proposition also tends to make all vendors look the same to buyers.  Without a value proposition clients will assume that all solutions in the same space solve with roughly the same degree of effectiveness."

O nosso "think input em vez de output" - quando se pensa no produto que se vende pensa-se em output. Quando se pensa no que se vende como o input que o cliente vai integrar, vai usar na sua vida para gerar um resultado valorizado na sua vida:

• Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte VIII)
• "it took a holistic approach towards how to play"

Trechos retirados de "Why Should Your Client Spend Even One Minute With You?"

"a Rare Opportunity to Be Strategic"

"When charged with acquiring new business, the natural and essential first questions are: “Where is the business going to come from?” and “Who should I be pursuing?” If we are putting together a prospecting and new business development sales attack, we need to know where to go and whom to target. That’s why selecting targets is the first step in the process. Quite simply, we can’t prospect if we don’t know who the prospects are.
.
Most salespeople spend the majority of their time in reactive mode responding to potential opportunities that come their way. The need for a defined list of target accounts does not register because, honestly, they are not targeting anyone. However, the proactive new business hunter requires a strategically selected list of appropriate target accounts in order to launch the attack.
...
Selecting Target Accounts Is a Rare Opportunity to Be Strategic.
It’s surprising how often senior executives or even first-line sales managers take for granted that their people are working the right accounts. Choosing our target accounts, which effectively also means choosing how we should be investing our time, is one of the few truly strategic things we do in sales. ... Choosing the accounts on which we’ll focus our proactive energy provides a rare opportunity to step back from the daily grind and ask the important, big-picture questions.
.
Who are our best customers? What are their common characteristics? What do their businesses “look, smell, and feel” like? Where are they located? Are they a particular size (e.g., in terms of revenue) or in certain vertical markets or niches where we have a higher rate of success? Where can we find potential customers with similar profiles?Does our best chance for new business lie within our current portfolio of existing customers? How should we rank those current accounts and then segment our focus across various types of customers, based on growth potential? How much of our time should be allocated to account penetration, to prospecting, to working referral sources? Are there certain competitor’s accounts that make sense to attack?
.
These are all highly significant and strategic questions, and I advocate the involvement of senior leadership in the decisions. The sales-person is entitled to input from management to ensure there’s strategic alignment between the business and the sales effort, and management should certainly have a keen interest in how the sales organization is investing its time.
...
Even the best talent will fail if too much time is wasted attacking the wrong targets."

Trechos retirados de "New sale. Simplified" de Mike Weinberg.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado

Mergulhar naquilo que passa ao lado de muita gente que olha para a cláusula 4.2 da ISO 9001:2015

"We have already noted the consensus among authors that firms act on markets and shape them, with such other stakeholders as suppliers and customers, as opposed to merely targeting selected existing segments.
...
Focal actors can thus influence markets – both new as well as mature markets – not only by persuasion of existing targets via such conventional marketing activities as selling and promotion but also by learning and developing their knowledge of both the market itself and the other actors within it, in a market- shaping process.
.
It is thus possible to discern a move away from the dominant marketing metaphor that emphasizes markets as preexisting, to be targeted and acted upon, to one that treats them as elements of ongoing processes, to be influenced and shaped by the actors involved through their own activities, and through the coordinated activities of multiple actors. Markets are thus being continuously shaped and reshaped, and our understanding of the market-shaping processes involved can be enhanced by examining the activities in those markets.
...
market changes can be seen as a response to actions, practices or ongoing activities
...
In our research, we have chosen the term ‘market shaping’ to describe the composite activities involved in shaping markets, including active and conscious choices aiming at shaping the market structure and shaping market behavior. In market shaping, a broad range of technological, exchange-related and institutional activities are deployed by the main actor in the process to influence and shape a target market.
...
Market-shaping activities cover a broad range: some have an operational firm-oriented focus, such as in individual selling situations, while others have a strategic, long-term and network-oriented focus, such as the changing of market norms and the way business is done in a particular market. They thus can act on a multitude of levels, spanning such activities as negotiating prices and conducting sales meetings, to increasingly systemic activities performed with long-term objectives in mind. In other words, market-shaping activities can take place and have their effect at different levels of influence, which we define here as ‘system’, ‘market offer’ and ‘technology’."

Como não relacionar este tema com o postal anterior e o enfoque no locus de controlo. Uma equipa de gestão de uma PME portuguesa assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado.

BTW, um aviso:

"Complex systems are fickle and volatile, presenting a broad range of possible outcomes; the type and sheer number of interactions prevent us from making accurate predictions. As a result, treating an ecosystem as though it were a machine with predictable trajectories from input to output is a dangerous folly."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

Empreendedores literários

O tema não é novo neste blogue, mas é tão desconhecido no mainstream tuga que toda a divulgação é necessária, o renascer das livrarias independentes, o que o motivo e o que significa para o paradigma económico a que chamo de Mongo.

Escrevo sobre as livrarias independentes, mas apelo à capacidade de abstracção para que se abandone o exemplo concreto das livrarias para agarrar o que há de comum para outras áreas da economia.

Esta semana já devo ter recebido uns 2 ou 3 SMS da Bertrand a tentarem seduzir-me, mas ir lá para quê? Para mais uma vez entrar e sair sem nada que me agarrasse, sempre os mesmos livros e o mesmo tipo de livros...

"the saga of the independent bookstore underwent a major plot twist: The customers came back. Between 2009 and 2015, independent booksellers across America grew by an astounding 35 percent, from 1,651 stores to 2,227, ABA figures show. And the upsurge shows no sign of slowing.
...
the genuine social value of traditional neighborhood bookstores and how they’ve changed their own fates.
.
The full study won’t be published until next year, but in a newly released overview, Raffaelli notes what he calls the “three C’s” of his findings: community, curation, and convening. Independent bookstores early on embraced the community-oriented “localism” wave that has inspired the proliferation of craft brewers, farmers’ markets, and the like. Small bookstores carefully curate the books they sell to reflect their clientele’s interests and concerns. And in recent years they have repositioned themselves as “intellectual centers,” hosting events and convening people and ideas in shared spaces..
In other words, booksellers have learned to adapt to the vast changes in their own industry.
.
“We don’t think of them as booksellers anymore — they’re literary entrepreneurs,” says Raffaelli. “I think that’s an important distinction.”
...
“We have a niche,” Egerton says. “The idea is to serve the community.”
...
Layte cites the notion of the “third place” — a gathering space beyond home and work. It turns out we need destinations like neighborhood bookstores, she says, “to be full humans.”"

Nada disto é novidade para este blogue... e traduz-se numa expressão que cunhei este ano: o truque é perceber que o papel da livraria não é o de vomitar livros, despachar um output, mas o de ajudar o cliente a arranjar um input que ele vai introduzir na sua vida para atingir um resultado muito pessoal. E isto é voltar ao tema de Ulwick:

"Making the job-to-be-done the unit of analysis means it is the job — not the product, the customer or customer demographics — that is to be studied, dissected and understood. This means that companies should not define customer needs around the product, but should instead define customer needs around getting the job done."

Eventuais dificuldades para o avanço mais rápido deste tipo de abordagem em Portugal:

• falta de massa crítica (pode eventualmente ser minorado ao conjugar livros com outras ofertas "indie booksellers, through word-of-mouth and personal recommendations, can have a big impact on the sales of everything else")
• falta de espírito empreendedor livre, muita gente acha que ganhar dinheiro a vender cultura é algo pecaminoso e tem de ser o Estado a apoiar e subsidiar. Assim, os apoiados e subsidiados vêem o Estado como o seu verdadeiro cliente e nunca chegam a criar a empatia genuína com os clientes-alvo, e raramente o fogo permanece para além do tempo em que ardem os fósforos por falta de skin-in-the-game

Trechos retirados de "Bookstores escape from jaws of irrelevance"

Fugir de os tratar como plankton

"When customers perceive equality between two suppliers, it is easy for them to default to the one that offers lower pricing. If the only quantifiable data point containing a currency symbol that a seller has to engage a customer with is their unit pricing, they will be at a severe disadvantage during any type of negotiation. This lack of solid data will work against them especially if they're either the highest- or the lowest-price provider. Note the key word in the first sentence—"perceive." It's unfortunate, but far too many people today base decisions on their perceptions rather than on facts.
.
The old phrase "what you don't know will hurt you" will plague sellers during pricing and business negotiations with customers if they're unaware of the tangible value delivered. Qualitative, abstract, and general statements of activities and perceived benefits cannot effectively combat the thinking that "I can get the same thing cheaper from many other suppliers." Likewise, similar types of intangible statements of supposed benefits cannot consistently and effectively offset price objections for superior products, services, or technologies. Even if the seller and their organization is truly responsible for effectively implementing technology or process improvements that have increased efficiencies and/or reduced external expenditures, the customer will perceive that no formal value has been created."

Recordo esta frase:

"The key management capability is not being in control, but to participate and influence the formation of sense making and meaning. It is about creating a context that enables connectedness, interaction and trust between people" 

 E esta outra:

"to move away from the traditional industrial view of the customer offering as an output of one’s production system to a view in which the customer offering is seen as an input in the customer’s value creating process"

E ainda:

"Customers often think we are different not because we are different, but because we recognize what makes them different"

Isto explica a dificuldade crescente das empresas grandes, empresas que têm tendência a tratar os clientes como plankton. Quando se tratam os clientes como plankton fazem-se contas gerais e genéricas sobre como um cliente médio criará, percepcionará valor a emergir na sua vida. Quando se tratam os clientes como membros de uma tribo específica ou melhor ainda, como indivíduos, fazem-se contas muito mais correctas e ajustadas. Aliás, algo que se confirma ao ler estes textos sobre pricing, as contas são tanto mais correctas e eficazes quanto mais resultarem de uma colaboração entre ambas as partes. Empresas grandes não têm ADN para esse tipo de abordagem. Tudo aponta para Mongo.

Trecho inicial retirado de "Value First Then Price" de Hinterhuber e Snelgrove.