Monopólios locais

Ontem a leitura de um texto chamou-me a atenção para o uso do termo "monopólios locais" por Warren Buffet. Desconfiado do significado fiz uma pesquisa na internet e confirmei que está em sintonia com o nosso mote:

Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas anormais

Em "A Warren Buffett Insight: Buy Monopoly-Like Situations" encontrei:

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price
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As it were, these wonderful companies can be seen as a kind of monopolies.
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Investing in a monopoly is thus a very attractive thing for an investor. Monopolies necessarily tend to make for wonderful businesses. Businesses which are highly protected from competition. Businesses which exhibit pricing power. Businesses whose prices are decoupled from their costs, [Moi ici: Como não pensar logo no exemplo alemão ou das PME portuguesas] and thus their margins can be as large as the market will bear. Businesses which gain from technological advancements instead of having to pass on those gains to their customers through cost arbitrage.
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[Moi ici: Recordar o que escrevemos sobre a beleza dos monopólios informais radicarem na mente dos clientes, em "Monopólios, eu gosto muito deles", "Quem é que ainda liga ao "princípio da eficiência económica"?" ou "Discriminação do preço"] For instance, broadly defined soft drinks are far from a monopoly: there are literally hundreds of different brands viying for the consumers' attention. Yet, when you sit in a bar and you ask for a Coke, you won't consider a Pepsi unless there's no Coke. You won't mind if there's RC Cola at half the price. You won't even want to know the price. Coca-Cola  thus has a monopoly in selling you those Cokes.
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I would thus go further and expand what a monopoly can include powerful brands. Powerful brands can create monopolies because only Apple can sell you an Apple product. If you want a Coke, you can only get it from Coca-Cola."

Curiosidade do dia

"Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, hoje o Governo não trabalha?"

Outro teste do tempo!!!

"A indústria têxtil e de vestuário (ITV) Dá como certo o resultado acima de cinco mil milhões de euros nas exportações em 2016, um crescimento homólogo a rondar os 5%
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A confirmar-se, o sector, com seis mil empresas e que emprega perto de134 mil pessoas - equivale a 20% do emprego da indústria transformadora - antecipa o "cenário de ouro" para as exportações que o Plano Estratégico para o "Cluster Têxtil e Moda 2020", divulgado em Setembro de 2014, previa  para o final da década. E volta assim ao pico das vendas ao exterior, registado em 2001 (preços correntes), agora com quase metade das empresas e dos trabalhadores."  

Recordo Acerca de uma previsão (Dezembro de 2014).

Apetece dizer um palavrão!

O anónimo da província consegue acertar quando os gurus e técnicos com acesso aos números e pagos ... falham em toda a linha!



Recomendo a leitura prévia de Evolução do desemprego, o que os Baptistas da Silva não lhe dizem... nem o governo (parte VIII) (Maio de 2015). Agora, ao estilo dos artigos científicos: sugestão de pesquisa para quem tem acesso aos números.

Dizer que o sector tem agora quase metade das empresas que tinha em 2001 é, se calhar, dar uma ideia enganadora do que aconteceu. O sector não perdeu metade das empresas. O sector perdeu muito mais. O que vemos ao longo dos anos é o somatório das empresas novas menos as encerradas menos as insolventes. O que gostava de ver era um índice de turbulência do sector ao longo dos anos: somar as novas empresas mais as encerradas e mais as falidas excluindo as que se mantiveram. Penso que esse índice daria uma ideia mais clara da transformação que o sector teve de sofrer.

BTW, querem ver outra guerra ganha por este anónimo?

"Sobre as perspectivas para 2017 ... antevê um ano cheio de incertezas que podem baralhar as contas.
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Vaz aponta "às medidas proteccionistas" de Trump"

As ideias proteccionistas de Trump têm uma consequência positiva, acabam com as veleidades proteccionistas de tantos na última década. Recordar:

• Ainda podia ser melhor (Janeiro de 2011)
• Arrepiante (Outubro de 2010)

Trechos retirados de "Têxtil faz aposta tripla para exportações em 2017" (JdN)

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XXI)

Ontem, na parte XX, escrevi sobre:

"Let’s take the connected toilet, which will have myriad sensors with the quality output of a diagnostic laboratory and could analyse all human refuse. It will tell someone they’re about to get sick before they show any symptoms
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That’s one reason why IBM is working on “lab on a chip” technology. “The breakthrough here,” IBM’s Gil told me, “is that we can separate particles at a nanolevel, which will allow us to discriminate between chemicals in the body at an very high level of accuracy at a very low level of cost. That will enable us to diagnose disease even before there are any symptoms.”"

Entretanto, ao final do dia, encontrei "Criado um laboratório de diagnóstico do tamanho de um chip":

"Investigadores norte-americanos criaram um chip electrónico que pode ser usado como um laboratório de diagnóstico em miniatura pelo preço de apenas um cêntimo, usando uma impressora de jacto de tinta vulgar.
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O “laboratório num chip” pode permitir diagnósticos médicos mais rápidos e mais baratos, beneficiando sobretudo países em desenvolvimento, onde poderão ser descobertos precocemente casos de cancro, malária, tuberculose ou VIH, cuja mortalidade é superior do que em países desenvolvidos."

Impressionante a velocidade a que as coisas acontecem

Boas notícias e uma explicação contrária

Embora esteja de acordo com as medidas económicas tomadas pelo anterior governo não acredito que elas tenham muito a ver com este desempenho positivo do sector transaccionável:

In #Portugal the economy is recovering thanks to broad structural reform agenda: says latest #OECD report https://t.co/2EDugFyPG8 pic.twitter.com/igPMQeWhLH

— OECD Economics (@OECDeconomy) February 6, 2017

Recordo sempre o que escrevi sentado numa esplanada em Valpaços em Maio de 2011:

"Se me vendem a redução da TSU para tornar as empresas que exportam mais competitivas não engulo. Tirando o caso das commodities, associadas a grandes empresas, o preço não é o order-winner das nossas exportadoras."

BTW, apesar do sucesso da competitividade portuguesa depois da adesão ao euro,  já não somos um país low cost:

Imagens retiradas de "Economic Survey of Portugal 2017"

Os ecossistemas da procura a mudarem

"El tándem compañía de moda e influencer gana peso. Las campañas con prescriptores de tendencias en la Red fueron utilizadas por el 65% de las empresas de moda, según un estudio elaborado por la consultora de márketing Launchmetrics. Las acciones con individuos muy seguidos en redes sociales también funcionaron para elevar la visibilidad de las empresas implicadas en el 84% de los casos.
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Instagram es la red social de referencia en la industria. El 97% de todas las interacciones ocurridas durante la Semana de la Moda de Nueva York en otoño se produjeron en esta plataforma. Una de cada tres compañías lanzó sus campañas con influencers a través de Instagram. Facebook es la segunda red favorita para mostrar acciones con celebridades de Internet para un 17% de los encuestados, seguida muy de cerca por los blogs y Youtube, los preferidos para un 15% y 14% del sector. Sólo un 10% de los consultados señaló a Snapchat como su red social predilecta para este tipo de actividades."

Quando falamos de ecossistemas da procura e do papel crescente dos influenciadores é disto que falamos.

Trechos retirados de "La moda se rinde ante los ‘influencers’: el 65% de las empresas hicieron colaboraciones en 2016"

Curiosidade do dia

Em "Marine Le Pen apresenta 144 medidas para “dar voz ao povo”" descubram uma medida que este "PCP defende que agenda de esquerda para uma década depende do PS" não apoiaria.

Não, não vale considerar as relacionadas com a imigração. Com o PCP no poder as leis seriam antes para evitar a emigração. Ninguém quer emigrar para a Venezuela pois não?

Mesmo agora os refugiados que para cá vêm não conseguem ficar cá muito tempo e fogem logo que podem.

Acerca do padrão americano

Recordar:

• Acima do padrão americano (Julho de 2013)
• O custo de arriscar (Dezembro de 2009)

E agora números mais recentes em "What Are The Real Small Business Survival Rates?":

"The latest data from the Small Business Administration (SBA) states that nearly 66 percent of small businesses will survive their first two years. That means only about one third of total businesses will actually fail in these first two crucial years, the main cause being a lack of experience. When the data is extrapolated four years out, the number of surviving businesses has been consistently near the 55 to 60 percent mark. This same data shows a five year survival rate that has historically hovered around the 50 percent mark, a far cry from the 80 to 90 percent failure rate so commonly claimed.
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Rather than 9 out of 10 businesses failing, as is commonly stated, the data shows us that approximately 50 percent will actually survive through their first five years. But even this information is open to interpretation, depending on what you define as a “failure.” As anybody who investigates this information further can see, there's a large difference between the approximately 33 percent of businesses that failed financially (or were shut down through legal action) and the nearly 17 percent those that were closed voluntarily. The SBA data combines these statistics, misleading one into believing that the failure rates are actually much higher than they are."

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XX)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV, parte XVI, XVII, XVIII e parte XIX.

Acerca da Internet das coisas:

"Connecting things matters because seemingly separate worlds start to collide. Disruptions caused by the technology revolution start to overlap and interact in ways we may not imagine. Connected ‘stuff’ has an impact on where we live and work, our shopping, retail distribution, media feeds, pricing algorithms, and on product distribution and manufacturing in a non-linear way.
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Previously irrelevant industries and data points become a new core focus of an industry.
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Let’s take the connected toilet, which will have myriad sensors with the quality output of a diagnostic laboratory and could analyse all human refuse. It will tell someone they’re about to get sick before they show any symptoms and it will have a DNA digital signature of each household member to warn of potentially life-threatening illnesses. A connected toilet could do this without people having to change a single life habit. It would just do it. Who wouldn’t want to get an early detection of cancer? All of a sudden toilet manufacturing becomes an important business alliance for the medical industry."

Agora, conjuguemos estes trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino, com "Over The Next 5 Years, IBM Sees Atoms Fusing With Bits To Create New Insights":

"One of the most important challenges our economy faces today is rising healthcare costs.
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Better and cheaper laboratory testing may be part of the answer.
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That’s one reason why IBM is working on “lab on a chip” technology. “The breakthrough here,” IBM’s Gil told me, “is that we can separate particles at a nanolevel, which will allow us to discriminate between chemicals in the body at an very high level of accuracy at a very low level of cost. That will enable us to diagnose disease even before there are any symptoms.”
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Another benefit is that since data coming from labs on a chip will be digital, it will be easy to integrate with wearable technology, allowing medical professionals to monitor patients in real time, rather than only when they are able to come to the doctor’s office or lab."

Mongo já cá está. Preparem-se para ouvir a Antral dos médicos e dos laboratórios

"there’s no way of defining a well-adapted organism except in retrospect"

Um trecho curioso retirado de "How Life (and Death) Spring From Disorder":

"Adaptation here has a more specific meaning than the usual Darwinian picture of an organism well-equipped for survival. One difficulty with the Darwinian view is that there’s no way of defining a well-adapted organism except in retrospect. The “fittest” are those that turned out to be better at survival and replication, but you can’t predict what fitness entails. Whales and plankton are well-adapted to marine life, but in ways that bear little obvious relation to one another.
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England’s definition of “adaptation” is closer to Schrödinger’s, and indeed to Maxwell’s: A well-adapted entity can absorb energy efficiently from an unpredictable, fluctuating environment. It is like the person who keeps his footing on a pitching ship while others fall over because she’s better at adjusting to the fluctuations of the deck. Using the concepts and methods of statistical mechanics in a nonequilibrium setting, England and his colleagues argue that these well-adapted systems are the ones that absorb and dissipate the energy of the environment, generating entropy in the process."

A fazer recordar as simulações de Lindgren que aprendi com Beinhocker, as estratégias nunca são eternas e são contextuais. E a fazer recordar os não-fragilistas, aqueles que se preparam para o pior. E a segunda lição da teoria dos jogos:

"Lesson #2: Rational choice, chosing a dominant strategy, can lead to outcomes that suck,"

"The industrial age was about limiting the scope of choices"

Quando penso em Mongo penso nesta mudança de paradigma e nas suas consequências:

"The industrial age was about limiting the scope of choices. This was accepted since the need to gather costly information and to communicate with low quality and expensive tools was minimized. Furthermore, as the scope of decision-making and action was narrowed, the learning requirements for workers and customers were limited, reducing the transaction costs of work. The efficiency contribution of mass production was in fact derived from these lower information- and communication-related costs.
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Today, in contrast to people being content with limited choices, offerings as problem definitions and solutions to problems are created on-demand to meet diverse, sometimes unique requirements.
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The context matters more than ever. The easier the access that people have to one another and to (different) information is, the more possibilities there are."

Mongo é acerca de uma explosão crescente de opções de escolha que vão dar cabo da noção de sociedade herdada da Revolução Francesa e da Revolução Industrial.

Vamos ver desaparecer a ideia de referencial, de família-modelo, de média como uma boa representação da sociedade.

Trechos retirados de "Interactive competence".

Curiosidade do dia

A 2 de Janeiro de 2016 em "O não-fragilista prepara-se para os problemas" escrevi:

"Os fragilistas partem do princípio que o pior não vai acontecer e, por isso, desenham planos que acabam por ser irrealistas ou pouco resilientes. Depois, quando as coisas acontecem, chega a hora de culpar os outros pelos problemas que não souberam prever, não quiseram prever, ou que ajudaram a criar."

Hoje, quase chorei com este gráfico que o @nticomuna mostrou no Twitter:

Entretanto, Nicolau Santos, profeta-mor do fragilismo vem culpar os outros:

O problema é reduzir tudo a custos

Neste vídeo Portas, como grande comunicador, resume de forma simples o problema de Trump com o comércio internacional:

• a China exporta quase 4 vezes mais do que o que importa dos Estados Unidos; e
• a Europa exporta 2,5 vezes mais do que o que importa dos Estados Unidos.

Este texto da consultora BCG, "Honing US Manufacturing’s Competitive Edge",  resume bem a mentalidade que encurralou os Estados Unidos nesta situação:

"Judging from the recent political furor over US factory jobs going to Mexico, one might get the impression that the US is facing another exodus of manufacturers. In fact, the opposite is true. Offshoring has dropped dramatically, particularly with regard to the world’s biggest workshop: China. [Moi ici: Algo que teams relatado aqui nos últimos anos]
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The main reason for this change is economics. As The Boston Consulting Group has documented, the cost competitiveness of US manufacturing has been improving significantly over the past decade, compared with many of its biggest trading partners—most notably China. [Moi ici: Esta concentração nos custos é doentia para um país que comanda a produção de conhecimento]
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In terms of direct costs, in fact, the US playing field is essentially level with Yangtze River Delta, China’s chief production zone. Despite the recent weakening of the yuan, and factoring in the differences in productivity and energy costs, China’s manufacturing cost advantage over the US shrank from 14% in 2004 to an insignificant 1% in 2016, according to our analysis of data collected for the BCG Global Manufacturing Cost- Competitiveness Index. When indirect costs for shipping, inventory, and other expenses are included, it is now less costly to manufacture a wide variety of goods in the US if that is where they will be consumed."

Como se o problema da indústria americana fosse de custos ... como é que a seguir podem vir dizer que os alemães fazem batota?

BTW, acham que Portugal ainda é um país low cost?

BTW 2, comparando os desempenhos das economias italiana e alemã e os respectivos custos industriais... fica fácil de perceber que o problema não são os custos de per si, o problema é o do que é que se produz, com que valor acrescentado, com esses custos.

A farmácia do futuro (parte VI)

Parte V, parte IV, parte III, parte II e parte I.

Recordo também o primeiro postal aqui escrito com o marcador "farmácia": "Estava escrito nas estrelas..."(Abril de 2007).

Na mesma tendência, "Farmacêuticos vão ter formação para oferecerem mais serviços":

"Os farmacêuticos vão ter formação para que as farmácias possam oferecer mais serviços aos utentes, como previsto no acordo assinado hoje entre a Associação de Farmácias de Portugal e os ministérios da Saúde e das Finanças.
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Entre as medidas constam a possibilidade de alargamento da dispensa de medicamentos hospitalares a mais áreas terapêuticas, a assistência farmacêutica permanente ou aconselhamento farmacêutico, serviços de intervenção em saúde pública (como os programas de troca de seringas, vacinação contra a gripe, entre outros)."

Pena que o mesmo racional não se aplique à área da educação.

Para reflexão

Julgo que já escrevi sobre o tema aqui no blogue. Um estudante tira um curso de engenharia, vai para uma empresa e ao fim de 6 meses põem-no a chefiar uma secção à frente de 10/15 homens. No entanto, ao longo de todo o curso nunca estudou uma disciplina que abordasse a temática da liderança  ou da gestão de pessoas.

Depois, encontro estes números e fico a pensar:

"So much depends upon managers. For example, a Gallup study found that at least 70% of the variance in employee engagement scores is driven by who the boss is. This is disconcerting because the same research found that about 70% of people in management roles are not well equipped for the job. This state of affairs is hurting not just employee engagement and quality of life, but also corporate performance.
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Most companies understand the importance of having highly effective managers, but few invest heavily in training to help them get there."

Trecho retirado de "What Great Managers Do Daily"

E na sua empresa, como é?

"“There's an opportunity to do innovation in big companies,” says author and startup guru Eric Ries. “But very few big companies have done this really well. Amazon is one of them.”
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Amazon has figured out how to combine the entrepreneurial culture of a small company with the financial resources of a large one. And that allows it tackle problems most other companies can’t.
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“I know examples where a random Amazon engineer mentions ‘Hey I read about an idea in a blog post, we should do that,’” Eric Ries says. “The next thing he knows, the engineer is being asked to pitch it to the executive committee. Jeff Bezos decides on the spot.”
A key factor in making this work, Ries says, is that experiments start small and grow over time. At a normal company, when the CEO endorses an idea, it becomes a focus for the whole company, which is a recipe for wasting a lot of resources on ideas that don’t pan out. In contrast, Amazon creates a small team to experiment with the idea and find out if it’s viable. Bezos famously instituted the “two-pizza team” rule, which says that teams should be small enough to be fed with two pizzas. 
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Ries says that new teams get limited funding and clear milestones; if a team succeeds in smaller challenges, it’s given more resources and a larger challenge to tackle.
But Amazon doesn’t spend too much time on internal testing. “They prioritize launching early over everything else,” one engineer wrote in an epic 2011 rant comparing Amazon’s culture to other technology companies. Launching early with what Ries has dubbed a “minimum viable product” allows Amazon to learn as quickly as possible whether an idea that sounds good on paper is actually a good idea in the real world.
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Of course, this method isn’t foolproof; Amazon has had plenty of failures, like its disastrous foray into the smartphone market. But by getting a product into the hands of paying customers as quickly as possible and taking their feedback seriously, Amazon avoids wasting years working on products that don’t serve the needs of real customers."

Trechos retirados de "How Amazon innovates in ways that Google and Apple can't"

Curiosidade do dia

Excelente vídeo.

Acerca da orientação estratégica

"For you and your organization to be successful, it’s critical to understand how to set strategic direction. In looking at 100 companies, we find that more than 70 percent of successful businesses started from a process of strategic planning. Consider your current plan: is it a clear, concise and motivating driver of your daily activities? If not, sooner or later you will lose significant business to your competitors. Research out of Harvard Business School over a ten-year period showed that companies with clearly defined and well-articulated strategies on average, outperformed their counterparts by 304 percent in profit margin, 332 percent in total sales and 833 percent in total return to shareholders.
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As important as the plan itself is the thinking that goes into it. Market trends, customer value drivers and the competitive landscape will all continue to evolve at different rates, and at some point, your current strategies may need to evolve as well. If you only rely on what worked in the past and are unable to generate new insights, your products and services may become obsolete.
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Research shows that team members are 40 percent more committed when they believe their leader has a clear strategic direction.
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When a group of managers are not effective at setting strategic direction, the results can be devastating.
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There are three C’s to setting strong strategic direction for your business: clear, cut and concise.
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Clear. Setting strategic direction boils down to answering just two questions:
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1. What are you trying to achieve?
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2. How will you achieve it?
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[Cut] While not formally included in the job description, one of the main responsibilities of a leader is to act as the editor of the business. A good leader is continually monitoring products, services, processes and people’s habits for things to cut out if those things are no longer adding value.
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Think about your business: what areas should you edit—or cut off—from time, attention, people and budgets so you can add value in other areas?
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[Concise] Being concise heavily relies on the first two C’s: clear and cut. If there’s a lack of clarity in one’s thinking, and trade-offs or cuts haven’t been made, then it’s extremely difficult to be concise." 

Trechos retirados de "Strategic Direction"

Alterar a oferta (parte VI)

Parte V, parte IV, parte III e parte II.

"Yet while the internet forever changed shopping, the physical retail environment lagged behind.
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And over the next few years, the brick-and-mortar buying experience will change even more dramatically.
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"We had been operating for this idea that bigger is better, the superstore or supercenter. Now we’re seeing a shift away from that, brands closing their stores, reconsidering their footprint,"
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"At the highest level, you have more physical retail going into service,"
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places like sporting goods stores, once offering the value proposition of a large inventory of tennis rackets, are now getting into ancillary services, like the restringing of said rackets. Retailers are using services to make their brick-and-mortar locations more valuable in the face of online shopping.
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that cup of sugar you need from the store? That’s delivered. We go places for people, not things.[Moi ici: Uma ideia interessante]
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[Moi ici: Segue-se outra mensagem típica deste blogue] In a world based upon extremes, failure can often be found in the middle.[Moi ici: A polarização dos mercados e o pântano do meio-termo] Nobody likes lukewarm coffee. They want it steaming hot or poured over ice. Experts agree that retail is evolving the same way.
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"On the one hand, we will increasingly use digital services (ideally mobile apps) to purchase down-to-earth products—such as toilet paper, laundry soap, milk. I could imagine a kind of Amazon unlimited scheme that will constantly replenish our supply of toilet paper," says designer and MIT professor Carlo Ratti. "On the other hand, I see a blossoming of experiential shopping. Think about choosing fresh food produce: We will always enjoy going to a physical store where we can touch, smell, etc. The store, in turn, can become increasingly focused on providing us with unique experiences.""

Trechos retirados de "The Way You Shop Will Change Forever This Year. Here's How"

Outsider manda conselho para a FNOP

Nos últimos anos a agricultura portuguesa tem evoluído de forma muito positiva. No entanto, jornalistas que supostamente deveriam ser experts no tema continuam embebidos em cortisol:

"E que, se prosseguirmos por este caminho sem rumo, vamos continuar irremediavelmente a perder terreno para a concorrência cada vez mais aguerrida."

Eu, outsider, interrogo-me, será que a feira em causa no artigo é a mais adequada para os produtos portugueses?

Entretanto, por estes dias, vejo mais oportunidades para agricultura portuguesa!
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Por exemplo, em "Supermercados no Reino Unido estão a racionar legumes" e, sobretudo em "O preço da curgete triplicou e a culpa é do mau tempo" com:

"No Reino Unido, os supermercados estão a limitar a quantidade de brócolos, alface ou curgete por cliente devido à queda na produção destes produtos. A “culpa” é das baixas temperaturas que dizimaram a produção em Espanha, país onde o Reino Unido se abastece neste tipo de alimentos. Em Portugal não há prateleiras vazias
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“O caso de Inglaterra é muito mais preocupante. Em Portugal temos zonas em que houve estragos, mas quem alimenta o Reino Unido são os espanhóis”, sublinha.
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Num comunicado recente, a Fepex, federação espanhola de exportadores de frutas, legumes e flores, avisou que a produção de alguns vegetais será 60% mais baixa do que o normal e que a situação deverá manter-se até meados de Abril."

Eu, outsider, se fosse presidente da Federação Nacional das Organizações de Produtores de Frutas e Hortícolas (Fnop) metia-me num avião, ía a Inglaterra e fazia uma operação de charme junto dos ingleses.

E chamava-lhes a atenção para coisas como a relva alentejana. Não estão a ver? Vejam "Estratégia a sério na agricultura, ou make my day!"