sexta-feira, junho 11, 2010
Onde isto já vai...
- Com que então Portugal não precisa de recorrer ao Fundo Europeu de Emergência?
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- Não, não somos como os espanhóis!
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Actividades versus resultados
"Many companies confuse activities and results. As a consequence, they make the mistake of designing a process that sets out milestones in the form of activities that must be carried out during the sales cycle. Salespeople (Moi ici: e muito mais gente) have a genius for doing what's compensated rather than what's effective. If your process has an activity such as "submit proposal" or "make cold call," then that's just what your people will do. No matter that the calls were to the wrong customer or went nowhere. No matter that the proposal wasn't submitted at the right point in the buying decision or contained inappropriate information. The process asked for activity, and activity was what it got. Salespeople have done what was asked for. "Garbage in, garbage out" they will delight in telling you. "It's not our problem, it's this dumb process.""
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"It is more important to know where you are going than to get there quickly. Do not mistake activity for achievement." (Mabel Newcomber)
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Primeiro trecho de Neil Rackham em "Rethinking the Sales Force - Redefining Selling to Create and Capture Customer value".
quinta-feira, junho 10, 2010
A nossa exportação mais importante
"700,000 New Emigrants":
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"During the research for a forthcoming book, I started to think about the impacts of our prolonged stagnation on the job market. Interestingly, in spite of low job creation, until recently unemployment never rose to really high levels. Therefore, I was left to wonder what could cause such a phenomenon. The answer was relatively obvious: emigration. We all know that Europe exhibits a low degree of job mobility, but we also know that, historically, Portugal has been a country of heavy emigration"
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BTW, "Ter memória" e "The world doesn't owe us a living"
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"During the research for a forthcoming book, I started to think about the impacts of our prolonged stagnation on the job market. Interestingly, in spite of low job creation, until recently unemployment never rose to really high levels. Therefore, I was left to wonder what could cause such a phenomenon. The answer was relatively obvious: emigration. We all know that Europe exhibits a low degree of job mobility, but we also know that, historically, Portugal has been a country of heavy emigration"
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BTW, "Ter memória" e "The world doesn't owe us a living"
Mudança de discurso
"Este contrato de coesão nacional passa também por uma maior solidariedade territorial e geracional: “Não podemos deixar que sejam os dois extremos da pirâmide etária, os mais velhos e os mais novos, a suportar os encargos sociais mais pesados das dificuldades do presente”."
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Há 36 anos os discursos eram sobre a guerra de classes...
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Hoje os discursos são sobre a guerra das gerações ...
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O triunfo das ideias do Grande Planeador
"According to the views now dominant the question is no longer how we can make the best use of the spontaneous forces found in a free society. We have in effect undertaken to dispense with the forces which produced unforeseen results and to replace the impersonal and anonymous mechanism of the market by collective and "conscious" direction of all social forces to deliberately chosen goals."
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Hayek em "The Road to Serfdom"
Quem vier atrás que feche a porta (parte II)
"Portugal já paga juros mais altos do que a Grécia no plano de ajuda financeira"
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"As medidas de austeridade (Moi ici: austeridade para as pessoas com o aumento do saque impostado. Porque não há maneira do Estado reduzir despesa a bem.) que o Governo português aprovou não estão a salvar o país da pressão dos mercados, que ontem, pela primeira vez, exigiram, numa emissão de obrigações realizada pelo Estado, juros mais altos do que o valor a pagar pela Grécia no plano de ajuda financeira da União Europeia (UE) e do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI)."
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A primeira vez que o escrevi foi a primeira vez que o li "E se for a Alemanha a ter de sair da zona euro?"
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Pois bem, o que propõe Edward Hugh em "British blogger unlikely economic sage":
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"So I put forward this idea is that maybe the simplest and quickest solution is for Germany to go back to the mark," he said.
Germany abandoned the Deutschemark in 2002 when it joined the single currency.
The theory is that Germany's exit would prompt a steep fall in the euro, which would go some way to restoring the competitiveness of Germany's debt-strapped neighbors including Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland. Exports would rise, allowing them to put money aside to pay their debts and to service the future needs of their ageing populations.
In time, he said, Germany could consider rejoining the euro after a correction in the region's economic imbalance."
Germany abandoned the Deutschemark in 2002 when it joined the single currency.
The theory is that Germany's exit would prompt a steep fall in the euro, which would go some way to restoring the competitiveness of Germany's debt-strapped neighbors including Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland. Exports would rise, allowing them to put money aside to pay their debts and to service the future needs of their ageing populations.
In time, he said, Germany could consider rejoining the euro after a correction in the region's economic imbalance."
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Saliento este ponto:
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"If these countries -- like Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland -- can't find a way to get back to growth then the debt is just going to mount and mount and mount on them.
"There's no future for any country that is in the sort of mess that these countries are in -- they need the protection of the eurozone," he said.
"It is much more feasible for Germany to say, 'Hey guys 28 percent of our GDP -- and it is growing as a percentage now - is in exports that go outside Europe or outside of the eurozone. (Moi ici: Para empresas que operam no quadrante D o preço é um qualifier não um order-winner) So what do we have to lose by coming out?'"
And remember that German debt is in euros so if the Germans went back to the mark it would be much cheaper for them to pay," he added."
"There's no future for any country that is in the sort of mess that these countries are in -- they need the protection of the eurozone," he said.
"It is much more feasible for Germany to say, 'Hey guys 28 percent of our GDP -- and it is growing as a percentage now - is in exports that go outside Europe or outside of the eurozone. (Moi ici: Para empresas que operam no quadrante D o preço é um qualifier não um order-winner) So what do we have to lose by coming out?'"
And remember that German debt is in euros so if the Germans went back to the mark it would be much cheaper for them to pay," he added."
Governos que se dão ao respeito são mais previsíveis daí que os governados confiem no seu comportamento futuro. Portanto, os 80 mil milhões de euros de poupanças que a Alemanha resolveu fazer, cortando na despesa do Estado nos próximos anos, em vez de um efeito recessivo vão ter um efeito expansivo "CAN SEVERE FISCAL CONTRACTIONS BE EXPANSIONARY? TALES OF TWO SMALL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES"
quarta-feira, junho 09, 2010
Quem vier atrás que feche a porta
Os tansos que ficarem por cá que se amanhem...
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Em Espanha a coisa está, também, cada vez mais negra "UPDATE 2-Spain small lenders struggling for funding"
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"Portugal was forced to pay yields on Wednesday for new debt at levels that could force the country to turn to the eurozone’s new emergency funding body.
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It paid 5.225 per cent to raise €816m in 10-year bonds, higher than some analysts expect to be charged by the newly created European Financial Stability Facility, which has €440bn at its disposal to help eurozone members facing difficulties issuing debt."
It paid 5.225 per cent to raise €816m in 10-year bonds, higher than some analysts expect to be charged by the newly created European Financial Stability Facility, which has €440bn at its disposal to help eurozone members facing difficulties issuing debt."
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Em Espanha a coisa está, também, cada vez mais negra "UPDATE 2-Spain small lenders struggling for funding"
Ah!!! É um sector de ponta, alta-tecnologia, um nicho longe dos competidores asiáticos...
Atenção ao artigo "Primeiro trimestre foi o melhor da década para o sector do calçado" onde se pode ler:
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"O primeiro trimestre de 2010 foi o melhor da última década para a indústria portuguesa de calçado, com a produção, emprego e encomendas a melhorarem, mas o “aumento brutal” das matérias-primas e as medidas de austeridade preocupam os empresários.
Este facto permitiu uma recuperação na utilização da capacidade produtiva, que já está “a níveis normais para a época do ano” para cerca de dois terços das empresas.
Esta melhoria reflectiu-se também positivamente no emprego, com uma tendência de aumento do número de pessoas ao serviço na indústria: “Embora quatro em cada cinco empresas afirmem que ele permaneceu inalterado, as que dizem que aumentou são mais do que as que dizem que diminuiu”, nota a APICCAPS.
Relativamente ao estado dos negócios, pela segunda vez nos últimos três trimestres são mais as empresas que entendem que é “bom” do que as que pensam que é “mau”, sendo esta proporção a mais elevada desde 2001. Ainda assim, três em cada quatro empresas consideram que o estado dos negócios é “suficiente”.
No que respeita à evolução da carteira de encomendas, 43 por cento das empresas diz ter estabilizado, 27 por cento afirma ter aumentado e 29 por cento refere ter diminuído, notando-se um melhor desempenho das empresas com maior peso de colecção própria nas suas vendas. (Moi ici: as que estão no quadrante D)
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Ah!!! É um sector de ponta, alta-tecnologia, um nicho longe dos competidores asiáticos...
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Este artigo devia fazer pensar todos aqueles que falam na incapacidade de competir com a Ásia, que falam na necessidade de proteccionismo.
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Não há sectores obsoletos ou em que as empresas portuguesas não possam competir. Há sim estratégias obsoletas.
Reconhecimento merecido
Nem sempre estou de acordo nas soluções, mas totalmente de acordo com o diagnóstico, Edward Hugh "The Blog Prophet of Euro Zone Doom"
Gostava de saber
Era tão interessante saber os valores monetários por detrás destes fluxos. A que preço a energia é colocada na rede, qual a percentagem desse preço paga pelos contribuintes em subsídios vários e, depois, a que preço a energia está a ser vendida aos operadores de bolsa de energia.
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Talvez Jacinto Nunes percebesse a incongruência em protestar contra o aumento do preço da energia ao consumidor final quando se elogia a política de renováveis.
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Se as pessoas percebessem as enormidades (não são ilegalidades) que se escondem por detrás de coisas como esta "Energia está mais barata na bolsa ibérica mas isso não se sente no bolso do cliente" revoltavam-se.
Ser diferente
Ontem, ao final de um dia de auditoria, enquanto aguardava "boleia" para atravessar a área produtiva, junto à máquina de café encontrei o número de 31 de Março de 2008 da revista Fortune com este interessante artigo "Target's inner circle" de onde saliento este trecho:
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"“when Wal-Mart first made inroads into Target country. With its everyday-low-price strategy, Wal-Mart began eating into Target's sales while spending far less on marketing than Target, which produced colorful - and costly - Sunday advertising sections. Alarmed, Ulrich approved a test in 1985, converting 50 Target stores in Albuquerque and Knoxville, Tenn., to emphasize low prices. Quickly, Target found that it did okay in new stores but abysmally in places where people were trained to expect that circular. "We realized that we wouldn't ever be able to convert the entire chain," says Jones. "And we couldn't really run a bifurcated strategy." (Moi ici: Ninguém pode!)
Target faced a choice - one that easily might have put it in the same spot as doomed chains like Caldor or Bradlees. "Some people tried to do the dance on both sides," says Ulrich. "As Wal-Mart got bigger and bigger, [other rivals] started emulating them more, but they were still trying to appeal to an upscale guest. They'd pile shit in the middle of their aisle and then throw in some merchandise that wasn't the right quality for the store level. It's the classic mistake."
Instead, Ulrich's team saw an opening: If Wal-Mart was striving to be the king of logistics, with enough muscle to force vendors to deliver on price, Target could deliver on a great store experience and a product that was exciting and unique. "Wal-Mart's strategy is in many ways more simple than ours," says Ulrich. "It's more about price and more about mass quantities. It's a hell of a competition, but ours is more dependent on innovation, on design, and on quality."
What Target did have, thanks to its department store sisters, was access to people who anticipated desires. So Ulrich started a trend department, bringing over fashion scouts from Dayton Hudson, who started by expanding the color palette for T-shirts. "I can remember all the skepticism," says Jones.”"
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Arnoldo Hax ajuda à festa com este raciocínio retirado de "The Delta Model - Reinventing Your Business Strategy":
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"Until now, the prevailing view – shared by most practicing managers and academics – has been to define the goal of strategy as achieving sustainable competitive advantage. Most, if not all, of the most respected and popular frameworks that guide the strategy development process are anchored in this concept. This is a mindset likely to cause severe problems moving forward.
First, it puts our competitors at the center of our management process. Competitors become our driving force, our relevant benchmark. We look at strategy, and consequently at management, as rivalry. In order for us to succeed, we have to beat someone. Strategy is destructive; strategy is war.
Second, and equally troublesome, using our competitors as a way to define our course of action basically anchors us in the past. On reflection, this is an approach that seems counterproductive in a time of revolutionary change, when we want to create discontinuities, not reaffirm old practices. Is this what we should be aiming at in today’s turbulent environment, when change is virtually mandatory? We must challenge our previous state of business. We must have the ability to be creative and separate ourselves from the herd, to find a new and unique way of conducting business.
Often, companies seem obsessed with their competition, studying and watching it intensely to detect anything that could signal a way to operate more effectively.
This might not be a very smart way to manage. I tell my students, “Study your competition deeply, but do not imitate them.” I believe that strongly. It is a meaningful challenge. To separate ourselves from our competitors, we must offer our customers something that is truly unique and distinctive. How do we do that?
Third, the excessive concern about competitors can lead us, consciously or otherwise, into imitating their behavior. Our products begin to take on similar characteristics of those of the leaders. The development of our new products adheres to the prevailing standard of the industry, the channels of distribution that access our customer base are indistinguishable – in other words, the industry begins to converge into a well-established set of norms and standards. The result of this congruency leads toward the commoditization of our business, which is the worst possible outcome for all players."
terça-feira, junho 08, 2010
Velhos tempos
Este título "Portugal, Espanha e França assinam acordo para captar fundos para o TGV" fez-me regressar a 1990...
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A empresa onde trabalhava estava em expansão e eu estava, juntamente com outros colegas da mesma idade e experiência, encarregado de pedir propostas e fazer mapas comparativos de componentes necessários para a expansão: bombas, válvulas, tanques, ...
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Recordo uma experiência interessante com as bombas centrifugas . Pedimos cotações a empresas como a EFACEC, a SULZER, a KSB e mais uma outra que não recordo o nome.
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No mapa comparativo púnhamos o preço inicial numa coluna, noutra coluna púnhamos os custos de funcionamento durante um ano, quanto custava a energia necessária para operar esses monstros, e numa terceira coluna púnhamos a soma das duas colunas anteriores.
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Recordo que à altura, as bombas mais caras eram as da EFACEC... mas mais interessante do que isso era constatar que mesmo que fossem dadas, as bombas da EFACEC, ao fim de um ano eram mais caras que as outras, dado a brutal diferença no consumo de energia.
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Mesmo que o TGV seja dado... vai ter um custo de operação e peras...
Retratos de Portugal
Ontem de manhã em Mortágua, nas estradas as cerejeiras carregadas do fruto vermelho, nas empresas a madeira sempre presente. E o dilema do interior, empresa em expansão não consegue convencer técnicos no desemprego a mudarem-se para o interior.
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Hoje de manhã na localidade de Avelar, no caminho, na zona de Penela, o verde das muitas nogueiras com o fruto em formação. O concelho de Ansião devia ser premiado por ter mantido, por ter poupado uma interessante mancha florestal de vegetação autóctone de vários tipos de Quercus.
The Delta Model
Isto parece retirado deste blogue:
"Task 1 Customer Segmentation and Customer Value Proposition
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We begin by segmenting the customer base so that we can identify subsets of customers sharing similar needs, to which we will be providing distinct value propositions. We cannot overemphasize the importance of this task. It is the true foundation of a well laid out strategy.
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Task 2 The Existing and Desired Competencies of the Firm
The previous task allows us to understand the demand side of our business in a creative way. This task forces us to deeply focus on the supply side, on our own capabilities.
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Task 3 The Mission of the Business
The previous two tasks – customer segmentation and customer value proposition; and existing and desired competencies – are the foundation of our overall diagnosis.
What emerges is a clear understanding of where we are and what changes will be required to improve our existing circumstance. The true purpose of the mission statement is to capture and clearly articulate our intent. It is a critical task because it integrates the strategic tasks that we have conducted into a sole statement that defines the purpose of the organization and the challenges we face to move it in the desired direction. The mission is a fundamental vehicle to communicate our sense of direction, both inside and outside the organization.
Task 4 The Strategic Agenda
The strategic agenda attempts to identify and lay out in very pragmatic and concrete terms the specific tasks that we must undertake in order to serve our customers, define our new capabilities, and move the organization forward into the desired state of leadership. It should not only spell out the tasks but also identify who is accountable for their execution, as well as how to establish the necessary organization, information, and control mechanisms for its proper implementation.
Task 5 Monitoring the Strategy Execution
What happens after we have formulated what we hope is a winning strategy? The answer is obvious: we need to assure its proper implementation. In other words, we need to “manage by strategy” – so that strategy becomes the compass that directs the myriad tasks that are part of the routines of management.
Two important elements are required to assure proper implementation of the strategy, in addition to the unbounded attention that managers have to devote to its proper execution. The first is the development of an “intelligent budget.” ... The second vehicle required to assure proper implementation is the use of the Balanced Scorecard, both at the business and individual customer tier. This allows us to continue to focus on how we deliver the differentiated value propositions for each individual customer group."
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We begin by segmenting the customer base so that we can identify subsets of customers sharing similar needs, to which we will be providing distinct value propositions. We cannot overemphasize the importance of this task. It is the true foundation of a well laid out strategy.
…
Task 2 The Existing and Desired Competencies of the Firm
The previous task allows us to understand the demand side of our business in a creative way. This task forces us to deeply focus on the supply side, on our own capabilities.
…
Task 3 The Mission of the Business
The previous two tasks – customer segmentation and customer value proposition; and existing and desired competencies – are the foundation of our overall diagnosis.
What emerges is a clear understanding of where we are and what changes will be required to improve our existing circumstance. The true purpose of the mission statement is to capture and clearly articulate our intent. It is a critical task because it integrates the strategic tasks that we have conducted into a sole statement that defines the purpose of the organization and the challenges we face to move it in the desired direction. The mission is a fundamental vehicle to communicate our sense of direction, both inside and outside the organization.
Task 4 The Strategic Agenda
The strategic agenda attempts to identify and lay out in very pragmatic and concrete terms the specific tasks that we must undertake in order to serve our customers, define our new capabilities, and move the organization forward into the desired state of leadership. It should not only spell out the tasks but also identify who is accountable for their execution, as well as how to establish the necessary organization, information, and control mechanisms for its proper implementation.
Task 5 Monitoring the Strategy Execution
What happens after we have formulated what we hope is a winning strategy? The answer is obvious: we need to assure its proper implementation. In other words, we need to “manage by strategy” – so that strategy becomes the compass that directs the myriad tasks that are part of the routines of management.
Two important elements are required to assure proper implementation of the strategy, in addition to the unbounded attention that managers have to devote to its proper execution. The first is the development of an “intelligent budget.” ... The second vehicle required to assure proper implementation is the use of the Balanced Scorecard, both at the business and individual customer tier. This allows us to continue to focus on how we deliver the differentiated value propositions for each individual customer group."
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Posicionamentos estratégicos
Interessante esta forma de identificar e sistematizar posicionamentos estratégicos.
O autor tem uma abordagem diferente sobre a forma como classifica o que é "Best Product":
O autor tem uma abordagem diferente sobre a forma como classifica o que é "Best Product":.
"Best Product positioning builds upon the classical form of competition. The customer is attracted by the inherent characteristics of the product itself – either through low cost, which provides a price advantage to the customer – or through differentiation, which introduces unique features that the customers value and for which they are willing to pay a premium.
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It is an inward-looking approach. Attention is centered on the product economics, the value chain, and the abilities to develop the capacities to deliver the best product."
It is an inward-looking approach. Attention is centered on the product economics, the value chain, and the abilities to develop the capacities to deliver the best product."
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Trechos e figura retirada de "The Delta Model - Reinventing Your Business Strategy" de Arnoldo Hax.
segunda-feira, junho 07, 2010
O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte V)
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Mais uma achega para o tema "Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries
and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants"
and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants"
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"U.S. firms respond to the pressures of international trade by altering their product mix
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We focus on US trade with low-wage countries.
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Given their high relative wages, it is virtually impossible for U.S. firms to earn profits producing labor-intensive goods.
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labor-intensive plants are relatively more susceptible to low-wage country imports than are capital- and skill-intensive plants in the same industry. As a result, within-industries, activity should shift towards relatively capital- and skill-intensive plants. (Moi ici: Basta recordar o exemplo da Tema Home para ver a quantidade de novas funções na empresa parte I e parte II)
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We find evidence of reallocation in three dimensions. At the industry level, exposure to low-wage country imports is negatively associated with plant survival and employment growth.(Moi ici: Coincide com o exemplo do calçado português) Within industries, the higher the industry’s exposure to low-wage country imports, the bigger is the relative performance difference between capital- and labor-intensive plants. (Moi ici: empresas que sobrevivem como subcontratadas no quadrante A e empresas no quadrante D) Finally, there is a positive association between exposure to low-wage country imports and industry switching. Plants that switch industries shift into industries with less exposure to low-wage country imports and greater capital- and skill-intensity than the industries left behind. Together, these results support the view that U.S. manufacturing is moving away from comparative-disadvantage activities and towards comparative advantage industries via exit, growth and industry switching. (Moi ici: este abandono, sem explorar as oportunidades de negócio no sector, como tão bem explica Suzanne Berger, não há sectores obsoletos há é estratégias obsoletas, depois gera situações que levam ao descrédito das marcas, por exemplo aqui a propósito de "The triple-A Supply Chain”, da autoria de Hau L. Lee, publicado pela Harvard Business Review em Outubro de 2004, sob o subtítulo “The perils of efficiency”.
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We focus on US trade with low-wage countries.
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Given their high relative wages, it is virtually impossible for U.S. firms to earn profits producing labor-intensive goods.
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labor-intensive plants are relatively more susceptible to low-wage country imports than are capital- and skill-intensive plants in the same industry. As a result, within-industries, activity should shift towards relatively capital- and skill-intensive plants. (Moi ici: Basta recordar o exemplo da Tema Home para ver a quantidade de novas funções na empresa parte I e parte II)
...
We find evidence of reallocation in three dimensions. At the industry level, exposure to low-wage country imports is negatively associated with plant survival and employment growth.(Moi ici: Coincide com o exemplo do calçado português) Within industries, the higher the industry’s exposure to low-wage country imports, the bigger is the relative performance difference between capital- and labor-intensive plants. (Moi ici: empresas que sobrevivem como subcontratadas no quadrante A e empresas no quadrante D) Finally, there is a positive association between exposure to low-wage country imports and industry switching. Plants that switch industries shift into industries with less exposure to low-wage country imports and greater capital- and skill-intensity than the industries left behind. Together, these results support the view that U.S. manufacturing is moving away from comparative-disadvantage activities and towards comparative advantage industries via exit, growth and industry switching. (Moi ici: este abandono, sem explorar as oportunidades de negócio no sector, como tão bem explica Suzanne Berger, não há sectores obsoletos há é estratégias obsoletas, depois gera situações que levam ao descrédito das marcas, por exemplo aqui a propósito de "The triple-A Supply Chain”, da autoria de Hau L. Lee, publicado pela Harvard Business Review em Outubro de 2004, sob o subtítulo “The perils of efficiency”.
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Por tudo isto que escrevi nesta série e por muito mais que tenho escrito neste blogue, não posso deixar de pensar que há sempre uma solução, há sempre uma alternativa, há sempre forma de fugir ao insucesso, pode é não estar à vista de forma clara. Não podemos é querer combater no terreno que dá vantagem ao concorrente, nem podemos colocar o poder de resolver o problema no exterior.
domingo, junho 06, 2010
Qual era a receita? Qual é a receita? Qual terá de ser a receita?
Quando eu era criança:
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Quando no final de 1988, trabalhava numa PME com visão, na zona de Guimarães, tive de contactar com um fabricante alemão de maquinaria, a certa altura do negócio questionava-me "São estes fabricantes de máquinas, são os representantes de pigmentos, plastificantes, estabilizantes e PVCs, da BASF, da CIBA-GEIGY, da Hoechst, da... como é que eles sendo tão caros, e sobretudo sendo arrogantes, conseguem ter tanto sucesso?"
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A minha mente de engenheiro recém-licenciado não conseguia perceber como é que as peças se encaixavam.
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Depois que me tornei adulto:
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Hoje percebo como é possível ter uma moeda forte, pagar bons salários, ganhar a preferência dos clientes e ser competitivo. 
Se uma empresa, se uma massa crítica de empresas, trabalhar no quadrante onde se cria um Valor Potencial Muito Elevado o negócio não é preço, o negócio não é custo, o negócio são os benefícios que se oferecem (para elas o preço é um qualifier não um order-winner, como aprendi com Terry Hill), esse é o negócio dos alemães.
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Quando os alemães abdicaram do marco foi-lhes prometido que a sua moeda continuaria a ser uma moeda forte. No entanto, ninguém ensinou a maioria dos seus parceiros da eurozona, habituados a desvalorizações que facilitavam a vida às empresas dos quadrantes A e C, como é que se pode competir com sucesso tendo uma moeda forte:
Hoje, chegados a este estado de desequilíbrios acumulados os economistas engajados com uma certa visão marxiana da economia têm uma explicação fácil para o que sucedeu:
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"Enfim, discordo de De Grauwe num ponto: a necessidade de reduzir salários em Portugal e nas periferias endividadas como forma de ajudar a resolver os desequilíbrios estruturais europeus. O problema em Portugal, como o Nuno Teles já argumentou, não é salarial: a evolução dos salários reais tem estado alinhada com a evolução da produtividade, mas as desigualdades salariais são abissais num país onde cerca de 40% dos trabalhadores ganha 600 euros líquidos ou menos por mês. O problema principal, como este estudo indica, é a contenção salarial que os trabalhadores alemães suportam há muito anos e que tem impactos negativos à escala europeia." (Trecho retirado daqui)
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A explicação é a contenção salarial alemã!!!
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Para suportar esta afirmação é apresentado este relatório "EUROZONE CRISIS:BEGGAR THYSELF AND THY NEIGHBOUR"
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O relatório é, na minha opinião, pouco sério!
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Pouco sério porque: se defende que os alemães têm estado submetidos a uma contenção salarial para que a Alemanha ganhe competitividade, então porque é que nunca apresentam números sobre a evolução real dos salários alemães? Porque referem apenas a evolução dos Custos Unitários de Trabalho?
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O relatório na página 21 inclui o capítulo "3. Labour remuneration and productivity: A general squeeze, but more effective in Germany"
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"Of fundamental importance in this connection has been labour market policy in Germany. Put in a nutshell, Germany has been more successful than peripheral countries at squeezing workers‟ pay and conditions. The German economy might have performed poorly, but Germany has led the way in imposing flexibility and restraining real wages." (Moi ici: Então, segundo o texto do relatório, mas sem números a suportar a afirmação, é postulado que os salários reais foram contidos. Pudera, como é que uma visão marxiana consegue desligar valor atribuído a um bem, da quantidade de trabalho embutida nesse bem durante a sua criação.)
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"The difference in outlook between Germany and the peripheral countries can be demonstrated by considering the behaviour of nominal labour unit costs, that is, nominal labour remuneration divided by real output. Nominal unit costs can be disaggregated into nominal cost per hour of labour divided by labour productivity. This is a standard measure used to compare competitiveness internationally. The trajectory of nominal unit costs, therefore, gives insight into the variation of nominal cost of labour relative to labour productivity." (Moi ici: Agora os autores saltam dos custos reais para os custos unitários do trabalho, para fazerem a demonstração que se os segundos estão contidos é porque os primeiros estão contidos. Mais uma vez, pouco sério.)
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De seguida apresentam este gráfico para demonstrar a tal contenção dos salários reais com base na evolução dos custos unitários do trabalho.
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Nunca apresentam números sobre a evolução dos salários reais, mesmo no gráfico a seguir:
"Extra care is required here as real compensation is not the same thing as real wages".
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E segundo os autores, com base na figura 11:
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"Still, figure 11 shows that the real compensation of labour has risen faster in peripheral countries compared to Germany, with the exception of Spain" (Moi ici: E a Itália? E Portugal?)
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Julgo que os autores misturam empresas alemãs a competirem directamente com empresas dos outros países da eurozona, como se fosse tudo igual. Por mais que os salários dos trabalhadores alemães subam, a Alemanha não vai comprar mais aos parceiros da eurozona. No limite, pode é exportar postos de trabalho da Alemanha para a Eslováquia, República Checa e Polónia. A espinha dorsal da economia alemã está no quadrante D, a espinha dorsal dos outros países da eurozona está no quadrante A. (Recordo este artigo da revista TIME de Dezembro de 2005 sobre o descalabro de uma região italiana dedicada à produção do quadrante A )
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As empresas do quadrante A não competem com empresas alemãs, competem com empresas dos países com Low Manufacturing Cost (LMC), competem no quadrante da venda transaccional, competem no quadrante onde a criação de Valor Potencial é mais baixo.
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Neil Rackham no seu livro "Rethinking the Sales Force - Redefining Selling to Create and Capture Customer value", publicado em 1999 (não esquecer a adesão da China à OMC e a adesão dos países da Europa de Leste à UE):
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"Commoditization And The Pace Of Change
There are a number of factors that are likely to continue the growth of transactional sales into the foreseeable future. Globalization and deregulation will continue to increase the number of suppliers, with relatively undifferentiated products across a broad number of industries. As a result, customer choice will continue to grow. While this increase of choice is a welcome boon for consumers, suppliers are unlikely to do much celebrating as greater choice results in tougher, more price based buying. Technological advances are also pushing more sales into the transactional category. It is becoming harder and harder to maintain true product differences. Technology increases innovation potential, but it also greatly shortens the time it takes to copy a competitor's product.
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Over the past decade, the era of downsizing, reengineering and cost benchmarking has fundamentally changed purchasing thinking and behavior and has increased the focus on cost-expense management.
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There has also been increasing demand for "common standards," "open architectures," and specifications that multiple suppliers can meet. This has resulted in opportunities for substituting cheaper products, diminishing differentiation potential, and pushing price to the forefront of purchasing negotiations. In industry after industry, sellers have watched long-standing, "safe" customer relationships evaporate as a new buying order has emerged. They have also seen new decision makers enter the arena, buying committees or even outside, third-party buying groups whose sole purpose is to commoditize the sale and drive down prices even further.
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A similar trend is visible among consumers. It is not just car manufacturers that are facing customers who are smarter and a great deal better informed than ever before. Consumers are much more aware of the choices they have, and they are increasingly likely to get their information from impartial sources. As a result, a larger percentage of their purchases are becoming transactional, where price and availability are the only sales factors that hold sway.
Even suppliers that have complex and differentiated offerings or services face transactional sales pressure from a segment of their customer base. These suppliers are finding that, although their salespeople have potential to add great value, some of their customers don't need to want that assistance and have become transactional buyers.
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These trends are unlikely to reverse, and, in fact, they are more likely to accelerate. Most buyersconsumers or businesseshave changed the way they approach purchases for many of the products and services they buy. As a result, virtually every company is going to face transactional sales for part, if not all, of their product line and/or customer base."
There are a number of factors that are likely to continue the growth of transactional sales into the foreseeable future. Globalization and deregulation will continue to increase the number of suppliers, with relatively undifferentiated products across a broad number of industries. As a result, customer choice will continue to grow. While this increase of choice is a welcome boon for consumers, suppliers are unlikely to do much celebrating as greater choice results in tougher, more price based buying. Technological advances are also pushing more sales into the transactional category. It is becoming harder and harder to maintain true product differences. Technology increases innovation potential, but it also greatly shortens the time it takes to copy a competitor's product.
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Over the past decade, the era of downsizing, reengineering and cost benchmarking has fundamentally changed purchasing thinking and behavior and has increased the focus on cost-expense management.
...
There has also been increasing demand for "common standards," "open architectures," and specifications that multiple suppliers can meet. This has resulted in opportunities for substituting cheaper products, diminishing differentiation potential, and pushing price to the forefront of purchasing negotiations. In industry after industry, sellers have watched long-standing, "safe" customer relationships evaporate as a new buying order has emerged. They have also seen new decision makers enter the arena, buying committees or even outside, third-party buying groups whose sole purpose is to commoditize the sale and drive down prices even further.
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A similar trend is visible among consumers. It is not just car manufacturers that are facing customers who are smarter and a great deal better informed than ever before. Consumers are much more aware of the choices they have, and they are increasingly likely to get their information from impartial sources. As a result, a larger percentage of their purchases are becoming transactional, where price and availability are the only sales factors that hold sway.
Even suppliers that have complex and differentiated offerings or services face transactional sales pressure from a segment of their customer base. These suppliers are finding that, although their salespeople have potential to add great value, some of their customers don't need to want that assistance and have become transactional buyers.
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These trends are unlikely to reverse, and, in fact, they are more likely to accelerate. Most buyersconsumers or businesseshave changed the way they approach purchases for many of the products and services they buy. As a result, virtually every company is going to face transactional sales for part, if not all, of their product line and/or customer base."
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Esta é que é a verdadeira revolução em curso, como as empresas da espinha dorsal da economia alemã estão no quadrante D puderam ter a mesma evolução da empresas de calçado portuguesas que sempre operaram no quadrante D, quase fizeram um by-pass perfeito à invasão dos produtos dos países LMC.
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O que as empresas dos PIGS têm de equacionar é como ultrapassarem o desafio dos países LMC, e não esperar que um aumento do poder de compra dos alemães leve a um aumento das compras da Alemanha aos parceiros da eurozona do Sul da Europa. Se as empresas dos PIGS nada fizerem para evoluírem para os quadrantes C ou D, resta às sociedades desses países esperarem pela evolução chinesa.
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BTW, como referi aqui (aproveitar para ver a definição de Custos Unitários do Trabalho): Entre 2002 e 2007, na antiga Alemanha Ocidental, o salário médio subiu 9% (ver tabela 1 da página 6 do artigo "20 years of German unification: evidence on income convergence and heterogeneity").
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Assim, a explicação não é a contenção salarial alemã, é a incapacidade, ou a demora, em fazer face à invasão dos produtos produzidos nos países LMC!!!"
sábado, junho 05, 2010
Mental models die hard
"Conventional economic theory assumes that firms always minimize costs given the output they produce." (Moi ici: Passo-me com estas simplificações absurdas da Economia)
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"Organizations do not always minimize costs or maximize value. There can be sheer inefficiency or rent dissipation.
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Our results are consistent with the popular view that monopoly fat may dissipate what would otherwise be monopoly profits, increasing (perhaps dramatically) the deadweight loss of monopoly. If that is true, encouraging competition may improve productive as well as allocative efficiency."
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Ainda esta semana usei esta figura para retratar o conceito de eficiência:
Assim, em momentos de crise na procura, as empresas procuram reduzir os seus custos e desperdícios para serem mais eficientes.
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A algumas pessoas ocorre a pergunta, porque não o fizeram antes? Porque tiveram de esperar por uma recessão, ou por uma situação de quasi-morte para o fazerem?
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Há redução de desperdícios e de custos e redução de desperdícios e de custos. Nem todos os desperdícios e custos são iguais.
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Por exemplo, sermos mais eficientes energeticamente, aproveitarmos melhor a matéria-prima, cometermos menos erros, é um tipo de aumento de eficiência que normalmente não devia esperar por uma recessão porque não tem dor associada. Se não se faz antes de uma recessão é por preguiça ou descuido.
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Mas há outro tipo de ineficiência... normalmente mais cara e mais invisível... e quando é descoberta é vista como uma necessidade do negócio e não como uma ineficiência.
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Os gráficos de Terry Hill ilustram o desfasamento de uma empresa face a uma proposta de valor, quando uma empresa foi concebida para competir nas grandes quantidades e tem de competir nas pequenas séries... tem em si embutidas ineficiências.
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Quando uma empresa quer ir a todas e servir em simultâneo o cliente das grandes séries e o cliente da boutique dos semi-protótipos... tem em si embutidas ineficiências.
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Estas ineficiências são diferentes das primeiras porque implicam dor, porque implicam opção, porque implicam um trade-off, para ser mais eficiente e ter mais sucesso com os clientes da proposta de valor A vou ter de cortar no serviço aos clientes da proposta de valor B... mas as futuras encomendas dos futuros e actuais clientes A ainda terão de vir e eu agora, já agora, tenho umas encomendas dos clientes B.... custa muito recusar...
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Trechos que se seguem retirados de um artigo de Michael Porter publicado pela HBR em 1996 "What is Strategy?".
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Só que "A sustainable Strategic Position Always Requires Trade-Offs"
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"Trade-offs occur when activities are incompatible. Simply put, a trade-off means that more of one thing necessitates less of another.
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trade-offs arise from activities themselves. Different positions (with their tailored activities) require different product configurations, different equipment, different employee behavior, different skills, and different management systems. Many trade-offs reflect inflexibilities in machinery, people, or systems. The more Ikea has configured its activities (Moi ici: a isto chamo adoptar uma disciplina de valor, tornar-se obcecada em servir os clientes-alvo com uma proposta de valor específica)
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trade-offs arise from activities themselves. Different positions (with their tailored activities) require different product configurations, different equipment, different employee behavior, different skills, and different management systems. Many trade-offs reflect inflexibilities in machinery, people, or systems. The more Ikea has configured its activities (Moi ici: a isto chamo adoptar uma disciplina de valor, tornar-se obcecada em servir os clientes-alvo com uma proposta de valor específica)
to lower costs by having its customers do their own assembly and delivery, the less able it is to satisfy customers who require higher levels of service.
However, trade-offs can be even more basic. In general, value is destroyed if an activity is overdesigned or underdesigned for its use." (Moi ici: Basta recordar o último postal e imaginar uma empresa a tentar uma venda consultiva num negócio em que o cliente só quer preço.)
However, trade-offs can be even more basic. In general, value is destroyed if an activity is overdesigned or underdesigned for its use." (Moi ici: Basta recordar o último postal e imaginar uma empresa a tentar uma venda consultiva num negócio em que o cliente só quer preço.)
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Estes trade-offs são dolorosos, não garantem sucesso, implicam cortar com clientes actuais com os quais há uma relação, (também porque não se fazem contas) por isso são adiadas as decisões apesar dos mais variados mensageiros.
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Quando numa recessão ou numa situação de quasi-morte, a opção de cortar com alguns clientes quase que desaparece ou porque eles próprios quase que desaparecem, ou porque a opção de cortar com alguns clientes torna-se clara porque com a diminuição do caudal de dinheiro a entrar, consegue-se, tal como numa foz na maré vaza, visualizar as margens que se retiram de cada cliente e os custos associados.
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Confesso, da minha experiência, que é muito difícil convencer um gerente a cortar com um cliente que não é um cliente-alvo. O market-share continua a ter mais peso que o lucro... é muito verdade: mental models die hard.
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Trechos iniciais retirados de "Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms?" de Severin Borenstein e Joseph Farrell.
Ter qualidade já não chega
Na sequência deste postal "Clientes-alvo e Valor (parte III)" tenho, nos últimos dias, matutado num tema... a relação entre a ISO 9001 e cada um dos quadrantes das figuras.
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Apreciando sobretudo o último:
E considerando este esquema de Neil Rackham no seu livro "Rethinking the Sales Force - Redefining Selling to Create and Capture Customer value":
Podemos comparar os diferentes modelos de vendas:
E o que é que significa confiança em cada um dos modos de venda/compra?
Isto é tudo baseado no conceito de proposta de valor.
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O que é que a ISO 9001 diz sobre clientes-alvo?
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E o que é que a ISO 9001 diz sobre a proposta de valor?
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Agora imaginem implementar um sistema de gestão da qualidade em que os fornecedores (ou clientes) são todos tratados da mesma maneira...
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Agora imaginem implementar um sistema de gestão da qualidade em que os fornecedores são todos avaliados da mesma maneira...
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Agora imaginem implementar um sistema de gestão da qualidade em que os fornecedores são todos qualificados inicialmente da mesma maneira...
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Agora imaginem implementar um sistema de gestão da qualidade em que a opinião dos clientes é solicitada da mesma maneira e com o mesmo tipo de questões...
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Onde é que numa compra/venda transaccional se pode criar valor?
E onde é que numa compra/venda consultiva se pode criar valor?
E isto é tido em conta num sistema de gestão da qualidade?
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Muito poucas vezes.
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Por isso é que prefiro usar a ISO 9001 como um guia de boas-práticas a seguir na implementação de um sistema de gestão do negócio.
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Ter qualidade já não chega!
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Surpresa? Estava escrito nas estrelas!!!
Neste artigo "Instabilidade a Leste provoca mini-crash nos mercados":
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"A possibilidade de a Hungria poder entrar em bancarrota representou ontem mais uma bomba a cair nos mercados financeiros".
Bomba? Surpresa?
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Para mim estava escrito nas estrelas:
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"Primeiro há-de ser a Letónia (este ano o PIB vai cair 25%, os salários já caíram mais de 6%) e ou a Hungria, a entrarem em bancarrota. Depois, há-de ser a Grécia." (em Dezembro de 2009)
sexta-feira, junho 04, 2010
Destruição Criativa
O comentador Carlos escreveu, na sequência deste postal:
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"You can innovate or be innovated against.
Whether they think about it consciously or not, most investors are trying to figure out better ways (Moi ici: ser eficaz) to do things. If you don’t, they will start beating you for the best deals (Moi ici: o negócio do preço)."
Whether they think about it consciously or not, most investors are trying to figure out better ways (Moi ici: ser eficaz) to do things. If you don’t, they will start beating you for the best deals (Moi ici: o negócio do preço)."
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Esta frase preciosa define tudo.
Assim que um produto chega ao mercado começa a ver o seu valor a ser corroído mais e mais. E se nada se fizer... está-se a fazer.
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John T. Reed's analysis of Thomas K. McCraw's book "Prophet of Innovation"
O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte IV)
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Há dias no Facebook, a propósito deste texto sobre as ideias de Edward Hugh "El economista Edward Hugh apunta que España necesita rebajar salarios un 20%" escrevi:.
"I prefer "creative destruction". I prefer to reduce costs to whoever wants to join the market, and let low productivity plants being displaced by high productivity plants". "
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Pois bem, ontem lembrei-me de consultar o pai da "Destruição Criativa", Joseph A. Schumpeter himself. Assim, mergulhei no capítulo "The Process of Creative Destruction" do livro "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy" e ... que refrescante:
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"The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process."
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"Capitalism, then, is by nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is but never can be stationary." (Moi ici: Lá se vai a treta do equílibrio)
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"The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalism engine in motion comes from the new consumers' goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates."
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"This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. It is what capitalism consists in and what every capitalist concern has got to live in."
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E agora a pièce de résistance:
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"The first thing to go is the traditional conception of the modus operandi of competition. Economists are at long last emerging from the stage in which price competition was all they saw. (Moi ici: Estão a ver isto!!! Parece que desde 1942 o progresso não foi tão rápido como Schumpeter previu, malheureusement...) As soon as quality competition and sales effort are admitted into the sacred precincts of theory, the price variable is ousted from its dominant position. However, it is still competition within a rigid pattern of invariant conditions, methods of production and forms of industrial organization in particular, that practically monopolizes attention. But in capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture, it is not that kind of competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology, the new source of supply, the new type of organization (the largest-scale unit of control for instance)–competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives." (Moi ici: Porque é que fico com a sensação que pouca gente percebe a distinção entre estes dois tipos de competição? A competição pela eficiência, pelos custos, versus a competição pela eficácia? Como é que a Alemanha consegue prosperar com uma moeda forte senão com base na competição pela eficácia? E agora que somos todos alemães bem que era preciso perceber isso.)
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"This kind of competition is as much more effective than the other as a bombardment is in comparison with forcing a door, and so much more important that it becomes a matter of comparative indifference whether competition in the ordinary sense functions more or less promptly; the powerful lever that in the long run expands output and brings down prices is in any case made of other stuff.
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It is hardly necessary to point out that competition of the kind we now have in mind acts not only when in being but also when it is merely an ever-present threat. It disciplines before it attacks."
It is hardly necessary to point out that competition of the kind we now have in mind acts not only when in being but also when it is merely an ever-present threat. It disciplines before it attacks."
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Há por aí alguma exegése sobre este capítulo e sobre estes dois tipos de competição?
quinta-feira, junho 03, 2010
O corte de cabelo que aí vem...
No final de 2007, repito, no final de 2007, comentei em casa dos meus sogros que isto ia ser preciso (pôr dinheiro no exterior).
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Reparem como Camilo Lourenço aborda o tema "É óbvio que há motivo para preocupação"
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É óbvio que vem aí um corte de cabelo "Introducing the Not So Stylish Portuguese Haircut Analysis"
Alguém não leu o CREDO?
Acredito que vamos a caminho de uma sociedade em que o número de empresas grandes vai ser menor, porque a competição vai privilegiar a diversidade de estratégias e de respostas.
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Receio que as grandes empresas, quando falham no seguimento dos valores que as tornaram fortes, passem só a empresas grandes... e...
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A 1 de Maio escrevi estupefacto "Dá que pensar..."
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Agora outra vez "J&J Probe Expands to Other Products":
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"The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform asked Blacksmith Brands on Tuesday for further information about its recall last week of PediaCare cough and cold medicines. Those products were made by J&J at the same Fort Washington, Pa., plant that produced children's Tylenol and other recalled kids drugs.
J&J's McNeil Consumer Healthcare unit had recalled certain Benadryl, Motrin, Tylenol and Zyrtec pain and cold medicines for children on April 30 because of manufacturing problems including the potential for metal particles in the products. J&J has temporarily shut the plant"
J&J's McNeil Consumer Healthcare unit had recalled certain Benadryl, Motrin, Tylenol and Zyrtec pain and cold medicines for children on April 30 because of manufacturing problems including the potential for metal particles in the products. J&J has temporarily shut the plant"
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"In 2008, J&J's McNeil unit discovered that some of the pills weren't dissolving correctly. It hired a contractor to purchase the product from store shelves, according to documents released at the Congressional committee hearing last week.
The contractor advised its workers to buy up the Motrin packages, and to act like customers, making no reference to this being a recall, according to a memo released at the hearing." (Ver esta instrução "Behind the 'phantom recall' of Motrin")
The contractor advised its workers to buy up the Motrin packages, and to act like customers, making no reference to this being a recall, according to a memo released at the hearing." (Ver esta instrução "Behind the 'phantom recall' of Motrin")
O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte III)
Continuado daqui: Parte I e Parte II.
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Voltando ao artigo de Daniella Magionni, e às suas conclusões
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“…we turn on firm level and we show that behind the negative relationship between dispersion and import penetration from LMCs there are asymmetrical firm responses according to their initial efficiency level.
A eficiência é um rácio:
As empresas de calçado que eram um expoente, um paradigma de eficiência (quadrante C) em Portugal, as multinacionais, não tentaram sequer fazer face aos LMCs, deixaram o país rapidamente. Basta ler Sun-Tzu ou Kasparov, não competir com a China no custo ou com a Wal-Mart no preço.
Esta definição de produtividade que se segue é arcaica, pertence ao tempo em que a oferta era menor que a procura, tempo em que melhorar a produtividade passava necessariamente pela melhoria da eficiência.
““Produtividade é minimizar cientificamente o uso de recursos materiais, mão-de-obra, máquinas, equipamentos etc., para reduzir custos de produção, expandir mercados, aumentar o número de empregados, lutar por aumentos reais de salários e pela melhoria do padrão de vida, no interesse comum do capital, do trabalho e dos consumidores”. (Japan Productivity Center for Social – Economics Development ).”
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Voltando ao artigo de Daniella Magionni, e às suas conclusões
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“…we turn on firm level and we show that behind the negative relationship between dispersion and import penetration from LMCs there are asymmetrical firm responses according to their initial efficiency level.
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We find that more productive firms support more deleterious effects from the increased exposure to foreign competition. We suggest that the surge in imports from emergent countries may have reduced the incentives to innovate and invest, but it may have also stimulated efforts of less productive firms facing with the risk of exit. (Moi ici: Esta é a explicação de que discordo) We put forward also the hypothesis of a process of product-switching.”
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Como já afirmamos na parte I desta série a explicação de Magionni não me parece feliz, e tenho uma interpretação alternativa. Como é que a autora começa o artigo?
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“The increased import exposure has concerned all sectors, and a restructuring process may have been at work.
For these reasons, it's important to show the link between openness to trade and industry dynamics, in terms of sectoral productivity dispersion and differences of firms' performance.”
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Ou seja, a autora começa o artigo a falar de produtividade.
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Depois, começa a falar de eficiência e a misturar, como se fossem equivalentes, os dois conceitos:
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“The process of firm entry and exit contributes to explain the evolution in productivity dispersion, but also heterogeneous responses of firms to changes in the external environment may play an important role: firms with different efficiency levels may display different behaviour coping with the increased competitive pressure from foreign countries.”
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“In a more contendible market it is likely that less productive firms couldn't survive a long time, firms make efforts in order to improve their efficiency and stay in the market and competitive pressures lead to the flattening of any difference.”
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Esta última afirmação só faz sentido se houver uma única estratégia!!! Só faz sentido se as empresas competirem todas segundo as mesmas regras no mesmo tabuleiro numa guerra sem quartel.
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Contudo, “"there is no single best strategy" não há obrigatoriedade de seguir uma estratégia única, como nos ensinam os protozoários.
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Na verdade N empresas podem competir em simultâneo recorrendo a Y estratégias, umas concorrendo entre si e outros actuando lado-a-lado sem se beliscarem.
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“the foreign competition from LMCs is a threat that domestic firms have to cope with, but it's a particular difficult task because their rivals can benefit from lower labour and material costs. Domestic firms may be unable to successfully react to the growing flow of foreign goods. The foreign competitive pressure reduce the market shares and the expected profits for domestic firms, and this reduction may lower the opportunity and the gain from innovation and investments. Thus firms may decide to stop innovating and investing and this would reduce their productivity. Especially if the high efficiency of firms at the frontier is linked to their innovation efforts we may expect that competitive pressure impacts more on productivity of these firms.”
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A autora confunde produtividade com eficiência, porque, arrisco dizer, só concebe uma estratégia de competição, a estratégia do preço, a estratégia de aumento da eficiência.
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A produtividade é um rácio:
We find that more productive firms support more deleterious effects from the increased exposure to foreign competition. We suggest that the surge in imports from emergent countries may have reduced the incentives to innovate and invest, but it may have also stimulated efforts of less productive firms facing with the risk of exit. (Moi ici: Esta é a explicação de que discordo) We put forward also the hypothesis of a process of product-switching.”
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Como já afirmamos na parte I desta série a explicação de Magionni não me parece feliz, e tenho uma interpretação alternativa. Como é que a autora começa o artigo?
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“The increased import exposure has concerned all sectors, and a restructuring process may have been at work.
For these reasons, it's important to show the link between openness to trade and industry dynamics, in terms of sectoral productivity dispersion and differences of firms' performance.”
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Ou seja, a autora começa o artigo a falar de produtividade.
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Depois, começa a falar de eficiência e a misturar, como se fossem equivalentes, os dois conceitos:
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“The process of firm entry and exit contributes to explain the evolution in productivity dispersion, but also heterogeneous responses of firms to changes in the external environment may play an important role: firms with different efficiency levels may display different behaviour coping with the increased competitive pressure from foreign countries.”
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“In a more contendible market it is likely that less productive firms couldn't survive a long time, firms make efforts in order to improve their efficiency and stay in the market and competitive pressures lead to the flattening of any difference.”
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Esta última afirmação só faz sentido se houver uma única estratégia!!! Só faz sentido se as empresas competirem todas segundo as mesmas regras no mesmo tabuleiro numa guerra sem quartel.
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Contudo, “"there is no single best strategy" não há obrigatoriedade de seguir uma estratégia única, como nos ensinam os protozoários.
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Na verdade N empresas podem competir em simultâneo recorrendo a Y estratégias, umas concorrendo entre si e outros actuando lado-a-lado sem se beliscarem.
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“the foreign competition from LMCs is a threat that domestic firms have to cope with, but it's a particular difficult task because their rivals can benefit from lower labour and material costs. Domestic firms may be unable to successfully react to the growing flow of foreign goods. The foreign competitive pressure reduce the market shares and the expected profits for domestic firms, and this reduction may lower the opportunity and the gain from innovation and investments. Thus firms may decide to stop innovating and investing and this would reduce their productivity. Especially if the high efficiency of firms at the frontier is linked to their innovation efforts we may expect that competitive pressure impacts more on productivity of these firms.”
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A autora confunde produtividade com eficiência, porque, arrisco dizer, só concebe uma estratégia de competição, a estratégia do preço, a estratégia de aumento da eficiência.
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A produtividade é um rácio:
A eficiência é um rácio:
O que a autora não prevê é que uma empresa pode aumentar a sua produtividade e a sua competitividade, abandonando a competição pelo preço que favorece os LMCs, e concentrando-se na criação de valor via aumento de benefícios e desinteressando-se da competição pelo aumento exclusivo da eficiência.
.As empresas de calçado que eram um expoente, um paradigma de eficiência (quadrante C) em Portugal, as multinacionais, não tentaram sequer fazer face aos LMCs, deixaram o país rapidamente. Basta ler Sun-Tzu ou Kasparov, não competir com a China no custo ou com a Wal-Mart no preço.
Esta definição de produtividade que se segue é arcaica, pertence ao tempo em que a oferta era menor que a procura, tempo em que melhorar a produtividade passava necessariamente pela melhoria da eficiência.
““Produtividade é minimizar cientificamente o uso de recursos materiais, mão-de-obra, máquinas, equipamentos etc., para reduzir custos de produção, expandir mercados, aumentar o número de empregados, lutar por aumentos reais de salários e pela melhoria do padrão de vida, no interesse comum do capital, do trabalho e dos consumidores”. (Japan Productivity Center for Social – Economics Development ).”
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A espiral de deflação dos salários até ao nível chinês?
Eu gosto de ler os textos de Edward Hugh, aprecio a sua prudência e o seu recurso aos números.
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Contudo, não creio que visite muitas empresas, e que mergulhe a sério nos sucessos e insucessos de empresas individuais.
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Por isso, como macro-economista, vê cada sector económico como uma realidade, um bloco homogéneo. Assim, a sua receita é a redução de salários nas empresas de bens transaccionáveis para favorecer as exportações. Ver:
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Basta recordar este postal recente "Clientes-alvo e Valor (parte III)" para perceber porque não vejo futuro nessa saída.
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Este postal "The Economic Consequences of Mr. Hugh" ajuda a reforçar o que penso sobre o assunto:
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"To be more rigorous about this intellectually, think of it as follows; Spaniards suffer the 20% wage cut, and all else remains equal. We have no reason to think all else does not remain equal. No doubt this reduces the Spanish trade deficit by some number. This implies that the eurozone exporters - Exportland - see their trade diminish by the same value. The Spanish trade account is balanced, but we are all, on balance, poorer. And it is possible that the eurozone exporters will redouble their efforts to cut prices and hold onto market share - they have no reason not to, and in fact it is their core national economic strategy to export at all costs.
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The only way this approach might not actually be deflationary at the eurozone level would be if it caused prices to fall sufficiently that they undercut Chinese prices; this is unlikely, and anyway would represent the export of European deflation to the poor." (Como já em 2006 equacionei, BTW é perigoso recuar no tempo neste blogue, encontramos muitas afirmações feitas no ano passado e que agora podem ser avaliadas, por exemplo:
The only way this approach might not actually be deflationary at the eurozone level would be if it caused prices to fall sufficiently that they undercut Chinese prices; this is unlikely, and anyway would represent the export of European deflation to the poor." (Como já em 2006 equacionei, BTW é perigoso recuar no tempo neste blogue, encontramos muitas afirmações feitas no ano passado e que agora podem ser avaliadas, por exemplo:
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“É preciso aumentar os salários para que não haja um colapso do comércio”, defendeu hoje Manuel Alegre na curta intervenção com que abriu a sessão de lançamento do terceiro número da revista online “OPS!”, da Corrente de Opinião Socialista, uma tendência do PS.")
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"Surely, though, we need to cut, cut, and cut again to stay competitive with China? Well, this statement would be interesting if it wasn’t wildly counterfactual. At the current relative wage rates, it’s blindingly obvious that eurozone exporters are not succeeding in beating Chinese producers on price. They are doing so on their products. And, soon enough, the question will be absurd because the Chinese will themselves be looking over their shoulders - apparently, GDP per capita in Shanghai is comparable to that in Lisbon.
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The only future strategy is to have good products; after the bubble world of the 90s and 2000s, we’re back to the late 80s view that the future belonged to whoever had the best products and supply chains." (É recordar os factos de ontem "O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte II)")
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Alguns dos comentários são sintomáticos, por exemplo:
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"But what the South must do, if on the internal European market there is place only for one, in order to keep economies of scale competitive globally? (Moi ici: a teoria de que "there is no single best strategy" não faz parte do mainstream. O mainstream só vê a competição pelo preço/custo) And this one is usually some German Mittelstand, popped up with German protectionism - wage dumping, massive gifts of intellectual property to businesses, far beyound de minimis, low interest rates due to shear size of German economy."
quarta-feira, junho 02, 2010
Vai ser bem feito
Sobretudo para aqueles que emprestam dinheiro de ânimo leve:
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"Guest Post: Default, Please"
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"Guest Post: Default, Please"
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"When debt exceeds a certain level it becomes a cancer on society. Easy credit fuels speculation which triggers bubbles. These bubbles lead to a temporary lift in apparent wealth, which increases economic activity beyond its sustainable level. But eventually more and more debt triggers economic decline with the inevitable glut of goods produced by an overheated economy."
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"In the ancient days the Christian nations would have a debt Jubilee every 30 years. It sounds like a party because it was. Debts were forgiven en-masse when societies became constipated with debt.
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The economy will continue to stagnate, and unemployment will increase. Asset values will continue to decrease until the defaults begin. When the rot is finally purged from our system, the great American wealth machine will start anew. It is time to party like its 1454. Start your own personal debt jubilee."
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"In the ancient days the Christian nations would have a debt Jubilee every 30 years. It sounds like a party because it was. Debts were forgiven en-masse when societies became constipated with debt.
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The economy will continue to stagnate, and unemployment will increase. Asset values will continue to decrease until the defaults begin. When the rot is finally purged from our system, the great American wealth machine will start anew. It is time to party like its 1454. Start your own personal debt jubilee."
Para reflexão
"This is the age of war between the generations":
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"the overwhelming size of the baby boom generation, in comparison with the generations just before and after, allowed people born in the two decades after VE-Day not only to dominate culture, fashion and morality, but also to accumulate wealth, monopolise employment and housing and reduce social mobility for the next generation.
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But strangely, however, nobody — least of all an active politician like Mr Willetts — seems to make the connection between long-term intergenerational tensions and the present controversies over public spending and taxes."
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But strangely, however, nobody — least of all an active politician like Mr Willetts — seems to make the connection between long-term intergenerational tensions and the present controversies over public spending and taxes."
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"Why, for example, are governments everywhere running out of money, not just in Britain and Greece, but also in America, Germany, Japan and France? Why are taxes relentlessly rising in all advanced capitalist countries? And why is public spending being cut on schools, universities, science, defence, culture, environment and transport, while spending on health and pensions continues to rise?
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The populist answer to these questions is that we are all about to pay for the greed of the bankers. But this is not true. According to IMF calculations, the credit crunch, bank bailouts and recession only account for 14 per cent of the expected increase in Britain’s public debt burden. The remaining 86 per cent of the long-term fiscal pressure is caused by the growth of public spending on health, pensions and long-term care. The credit crunch and recession did not create the present pressures on public borrowing and spending. They merely brought forward an age-related fiscal crisis that would have become inevitable, as by 2020 the majority of the baby-boomers will be retired.
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The rational solution to this fiscal crisis would be for governments to reduce their spending on pensions, health and longterm care. Yet these are precisely the “entitlements” protected and ring-fenced by politicians, not just in Britain but also in America and many European countries, even as other government programmes are ruthlessly cut.
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The politics of the next decade will be dominated by a battle over public spending and taxes between the generations. Young people will realise that different categories of public spending are in direct conflict — if they want more spending on schools, universities and environmental improvements they must vote for cuts in health and pensions.
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Schools and universities are more important for a society’s future than pensions" (Sem comentários, além dos já feitos e repetidos no blogue sobre a conspiração da geração do Maio de 68 para colocar toda a sociedade a servi-los, os TuTuTu)
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The populist answer to these questions is that we are all about to pay for the greed of the bankers. But this is not true. According to IMF calculations, the credit crunch, bank bailouts and recession only account for 14 per cent of the expected increase in Britain’s public debt burden. The remaining 86 per cent of the long-term fiscal pressure is caused by the growth of public spending on health, pensions and long-term care. The credit crunch and recession did not create the present pressures on public borrowing and spending. They merely brought forward an age-related fiscal crisis that would have become inevitable, as by 2020 the majority of the baby-boomers will be retired.
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The rational solution to this fiscal crisis would be for governments to reduce their spending on pensions, health and longterm care. Yet these are precisely the “entitlements” protected and ring-fenced by politicians, not just in Britain but also in America and many European countries, even as other government programmes are ruthlessly cut.
.
The politics of the next decade will be dominated by a battle over public spending and taxes between the generations. Young people will realise that different categories of public spending are in direct conflict — if they want more spending on schools, universities and environmental improvements they must vote for cuts in health and pensions.
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Schools and universities are more important for a society’s future than pensions" (Sem comentários, além dos já feitos e repetidos no blogue sobre a conspiração da geração do Maio de 68 para colocar toda a sociedade a servi-los, os TuTuTu)
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Estranho, era uma forma eufemística de relacionar "zona daquelas" com este sentimento "As Cajas de surpresas"
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Pedro Guerreiro a corroborar o meu sentimento de que o puppet-maker-and-master em Portugal é Ricardo Salgado do BES "Esta PT acabou, venha a próxima":
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"O negócio não foi decidido nem em São Bento nem no Fórum Picoas. Foi na Avenida da Liberdade, 195. É essa a morada dos centros de decisão nacionais. Foi o BES que aceitou negociar a oferta."
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"Passos Coelho admite que Portugal poderá ter de recorrer ao Fundo de Emergência Europeu" ou seja, o Dia do Juízo Final aproxima-se a galope.
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"Quando se afirma algo, pode estar a afirmar-se exactamente o contrário" a propósito de "Top Central Banks Not Planning Shift Out of Euro".
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