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Contudo, não creio que visite muitas empresas, e que mergulhe a sério nos sucessos e insucessos de empresas individuais.
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Por isso, como macro-economista, vê cada sector económico como uma realidade, um bloco homogéneo. Assim, a sua receita é a redução de salários nas empresas de bens transaccionáveis para favorecer as exportações. Ver:
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Basta recordar este postal recente "Clientes-alvo e Valor (parte III)" para perceber porque não vejo futuro nessa saída.
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Este postal "The Economic Consequences of Mr. Hugh" ajuda a reforçar o que penso sobre o assunto:
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"To be more rigorous about this intellectually, think of it as follows; Spaniards suffer the 20% wage cut, and all else remains equal. We have no reason to think all else does not remain equal. No doubt this reduces the Spanish trade deficit by some number. This implies that the eurozone exporters - Exportland - see their trade diminish by the same value. The Spanish trade account is balanced, but we are all, on balance, poorer. And it is possible that the eurozone exporters will redouble their efforts to cut prices and hold onto market share - they have no reason not to, and in fact it is their core national economic strategy to export at all costs.
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The only way this approach might not actually be deflationary at the eurozone level would be if it caused prices to fall sufficiently that they undercut Chinese prices; this is unlikely, and anyway would represent the export of European deflation to the poor." (Como já em 2006 equacionei, BTW é perigoso recuar no tempo neste blogue, encontramos muitas afirmações feitas no ano passado e que agora podem ser avaliadas, por exemplo:
The only way this approach might not actually be deflationary at the eurozone level would be if it caused prices to fall sufficiently that they undercut Chinese prices; this is unlikely, and anyway would represent the export of European deflation to the poor." (Como já em 2006 equacionei, BTW é perigoso recuar no tempo neste blogue, encontramos muitas afirmações feitas no ano passado e que agora podem ser avaliadas, por exemplo:
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“É preciso aumentar os salários para que não haja um colapso do comércio”, defendeu hoje Manuel Alegre na curta intervenção com que abriu a sessão de lançamento do terceiro número da revista online “OPS!”, da Corrente de Opinião Socialista, uma tendência do PS.")
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"Surely, though, we need to cut, cut, and cut again to stay competitive with China? Well, this statement would be interesting if it wasn’t wildly counterfactual. At the current relative wage rates, it’s blindingly obvious that eurozone exporters are not succeeding in beating Chinese producers on price. They are doing so on their products. And, soon enough, the question will be absurd because the Chinese will themselves be looking over their shoulders - apparently, GDP per capita in Shanghai is comparable to that in Lisbon.
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The only future strategy is to have good products; after the bubble world of the 90s and 2000s, we’re back to the late 80s view that the future belonged to whoever had the best products and supply chains." (É recordar os factos de ontem "O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte II)")
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Alguns dos comentários são sintomáticos, por exemplo:
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"But what the South must do, if on the internal European market there is place only for one, in order to keep economies of scale competitive globally? (Moi ici: a teoria de que "there is no single best strategy" não faz parte do mainstream. O mainstream só vê a competição pelo preço/custo) And this one is usually some German Mittelstand, popped up with German protectionism - wage dumping, massive gifts of intellectual property to businesses, far beyound de minimis, low interest rates due to shear size of German economy."
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