"In Europe and the US, more than 65 percent of consumers expect to decrease their spending on apparel, while only 40 percent expect to decrease total household spending.Esta é a dura realidade que a indústria da moda em Portugal deve colocaer no centro da sua reflexão acerca do futuro. Que futuro? Que oportunidades? Que riscos?
As a result, overfilled warehouses laden with unsold seasonal stock will haunt most players, as long lead times weigh heavily on fashion’s supply chain and global consumer appetite for discretionary purchases wavers. Companies will turn to steep discounting to clear inventory for the rest of the year at a minimum, with a risk that “the contagion of deep discounting could spread as quickly as the disease”
Some retailers in the US estimate that a majority of spring inventory will be leftover due to store closures and a dip in online traffic, conversions and consumer sentiment. Following the imposition of lockdowns across most of Europe and the US, some brands and retailers have stopped fulfilling e-commerce orders entirely, while many of those who remain up and running have resorted to flash and mid-season sales to increase demand. In Italy, the number of items on discount is up 20 percent year-on-year.
Evidence from previous crisis shows that it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence, with early numbers from China showing that apparel sales were still down by 50 to 60 percent in the first month after stores re-opened.
We expect different market categories to be impacted by the discounting wave to varying degrees. Mid-market brands and retailers will be hit hardest, as cash-strapped shoppers trade down to the value segment for essentials and middleclass consumers turn more to heavily discounted affordable luxury and premium goods."
É claro que vão surgir oportunidades com a retirada de mais produção da Ásia, mas que futuro será esse a competir com o norte de África, ou a Turquia ou a Roménia?
As verdadeiras oportunidades vão implicar dor, mas o choradinho das CIPs et all vão criar narrativas muito dramáticas em busca de apoios para suportar o passado... vai ser torrar dinheiro.