Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos?

"Assuming the pandemic lifts and lockdowns end, the medium-term threat to long and complex supply chains comes from two sets of decisions. One is by companies concluding they have overexposed themselves to shocks. The other is governments trying to force businesses to diversify supply internationally or to bring their production home.
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On the first, it is unclear whether shortening or diversifying supply chains would have helped companies avoid a global shock such as Covid-19. [Moi ici: Fico admirado com esta argumentação. O que se passou, passou-se. As decisões do futuro serão acerca do contexto do futuro. Daqui - "it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence" - que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para gerir os próximos dois anos? Que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para as tentativas, erros e reposições mais frequentes?] There is a strong view among some academics and management theorists that it would. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote in the FT:
“The quest to find the most cost-effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains . . . the disadvantages of a system that requires all of its elements to work like clockwork have now been exposed.”
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Meanwhile, the costs of changing supplier — and sourcing from more than one provider to spread the risk — is prohibitively expensive for an industry as complex as carmaking. “You need to spend a great deal of management time and effort and expertise on actually making sure the supplier you have chosen has processes that are capable, reliable and repeatable,” Mr Neill says.
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The combination of labour cost arbitrage and clusters of specialisms push companies towards constructing a disaggregated international value chain.
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Second, China has actively encouraged its companies to create supply chains with state help through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a strong motivation to service the European market. There will always be some life in global supply chains as long as the vast resources of the Chinese state are busy building infrastructure and establishing trading links across the world."

Trechos retirados de "Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?"