Ainda e sempre: Volume is vanity; profit is sanity

Em Agosto de 2014 comecei a associar a metáfora "plancton" à reacção dos consumidores às marcas dos gigantes. Por exemplo aqui, "Porque não somos plankton (parte II)".

Os consumidores, ao deixarem de ser a massa típica do século XX, e ao converterem-se em membros de tribos aguerridas, começaram a abandonar os frutos da suckiness dos gigantes.

Interessante este resultado:

"The maker of CoverGirl cosmetics, Clairol hair dye and OPI nail polish is abandoning a revival plan centered on adding businesses and offering new products. The new strategy is to shrink, pay down debt and undo a failed makeover of one of its biggest brands.
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The makeup and fragrance seller, controlled by European investment firm JAB Holding Co., has floundered since acquiring dozens of beauty brands from Procter & Gamble Co. in 2016. Coty stock has lost half its value since the deal, and the company this year took $4 billion in writedowns on the P&G business as it struggled to digest the brands and as drugstore staples such as CoverGirl and MaxFactor fell out of favor.
...
“We didn’t execute well because we tried to do too many things at one time,”
...
the challenge of absorbing the P&G businesses and an industry shift away from mass-market beauty brands such as CoverGirl overwhelmed the company. Coty tried to remake CoverGirl. It eschewed television ads in favor of hipper socialmedia influencers and sped up product development.[Moi ici: Tenho um postal em redacção sobre o regresso do analógico]"

Os trechos acima foram retirados de "Beauty Giant Coty Tries On a Smaller Size".

Se lerem o artigo vão encontrar uma empresa à la século XX a gerir um negócio onde o essencial é o intangível.

"“They’ve been on a mission to become one of the world’s biggest beauty companies and the way they put the portfolio together was not very thoughtful or carefully curated,” Ms. Bolton Weiser said. “New management have to take a fresh look at everything.”" 

Estavam preocupados a jogar um jogo finito: ganhar quota de mercado a todo o custo:

"The P&G deal was supposed to provide stability. In pitching the transaction to investors, Coty executives said it would create a beauty behemoth overnight that was capable of challenging industry giants Estée Lauder Co s. and L’Oréal SA in makeup, fragrances and hair care. They highlighted two of the hair-care businesses now up for sale, Clairol and Wella, as especially promising." 

Ontem de manhã, ao iniciar a leitura de "The Infinite Game" de Simon Sinek, sublinhei:

"To offer growth as a cause, growth for its own sake, is like eating just to get fat. It pushes executives to consider strategies that demonstrate growth with little to no consideration of any sense of purpose for that growth. Just like it would affect a human being, it should come as no surprise that the organizations that eat to get fat will eventually suffer from health problems. Growth as a cause often results in an unhealthy culture, one in which short-termism and selfishness reign supreme, while trust and cooperation suffer. Growth is a result, not a Cause. It’s an output, not a reason for being."

E volto a 2006 e aquele ditado:

"Volume is vanity; profit is sanity."

Está aqui a ilustração do que Mongo traz aos gigantes

Pesquisando Kraft aqui no blogue encontro, como os postais mais recentes:

• Mongo é inevitável (Agosto de 2019)
• exploitation através de local searches quando a paisagem competitiva está em mudança (Agosto de 2019)

Agora no Wall Street Journal de ontem leio "Kraft Heinz Is Cooking Up a Fresh Strategy". Apetece dizer: Duh!

"Investors are celebrating signs of stabilization at Kraft Heinz, [Moi ici: A empresa no primeiro semestre do ano caiu 1,5% nas vendas e agora, no terceiro trimestre só caiu 1,1%] as well as fresh thinking from its new leadership.
...
The new leadership team, though handpicked by the company’s Brazilian private equity owners 3G Capital, shows refreshing signs of understanding what went wrong.
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They plan to unveil a detailed new strategy early next year but gave preliminary thoughts on a  conference call with analysts Thursday.
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Mr. Patricio spoke of the need for a “mental change” at the company. He seeks to shift its focus from short-term cost cutting and growth through acquisitions toward investing for long-term organic growth.
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Still, the company isn’t abandoning frugality.
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Mr. Patricio stressed the need to cull unprofitable or low-volume products from Kraft Heinz’s portfolio. “Innovation is an area that we have to increase, we have to improve dramatically,” he said when pressed by analysts to elaborate on his views on research and development, which prior  management shortchanged.
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However, he said R&D spending would be focused on a few big bets rather than spread far and wide— a similar stance to his predecessor, Bernardo Hees."

Transcrevi os trechos acima, sublinhei-os ... e agora estou encostado à cadeira a admirar o espectáculo.

Tanta coisa para escrever, tanta turbulência na minha cabeça. Está aqui tudo. Está aqui a ilustração do que Mongo traz aos gigantes.

Mongo ou Estranhistão, o mundo económico para onde caminhamos não é o mundo do mass market do século XX que criou os gigantes do século XX. Os gigantes procuram as grandes quantidades, apostam nas big bets. Cometem o erro da VW:

"turned down requests to build the electric vans in what are limited numbers by their standards."

 Em Mongo é inevitável descrevo a explosão de marcas e sabores, a explosão de apreciadores-contrarians. Em Não acredito nestas relações simplistas escrevi:

O que digo aqui sobre Mongo? Mais variedade, mais tribos, mais flexibilidade, mais rapidez, ... menos friendly para gigantes e mais pró marcas independentes.

É claro que a inovação é a porta para o futuro, duvido é que consigam encontrar uma ou mais "big bets". O mundo está diferente, o mundo já não é o do século XX.

Solução que me vem à cabeça, crescer por aquisição de marcas independentes e mantendo-as como independentes, na gestão e na produção.

Todos vão perder

O século XX foi o século de Metropolis, o século de Magnitograd, o século de Levittown, o século das linhas de montagem, o século da escala e do volume, o século do Normalistão. O século do crescimento canceroso.

Razão tinha Popper em defender a ideia de que temos de estar sempre alerta, só porque hoje se vive melhor do que ontem, não quer dizer que amanhã se viverá melhor do que hoje.

Em Dezembro de 2014 escrevi "Ter razão antes do mainstream é tramado". Nesse texto sublinhava a ironia da ministra da Agricultura de então, actual dirigente do CDS, chegar ao mesmo modelo para a agricultura portuguesa que o saudoso ministro socialista Jaime Silva preconizava. Ou se calhar, não chegou, apenas leu o que alguém lhe "botou" no discurso. Na altura ela disse: "Cristas quer colar a Portugal o rótulo de país da "joalharia da agricultura". Algo que jogava bem com a marca Portugal, recordo este outro texto de Junho de 2014, "A marca Portugal".

Mas uma coisa são os agricultores que espalham bosta nos campos e que daqui a 10 ou 20 anos vão continuar por lá, eles ou os seus filhos. Outra são os que mandam semear ou plantar hoje aqui e quando não der, deitam abaixo o pau do circo e mudam-se para outro lado.

E o que está a acontecer no Alentejo é a cópia de tudo o que nos afasta da joalharia agrícola, é a cópia do Mar del Plástico.

Meter um país pequeno, com terras pobres, a mergulhar na produção intensiva ... só vai dar asneira... "A outra face do sucesso do Alqueva é um Alentejo envenenado por químicos"

Mongo, aka Estranhistão, será o mundo da variedade, o mundo da diversidade, o mundo em que não queremos ser tratados como plancton. Outros, sabem fugir do crescimento canceroso e da tragédia dos comuns apostando na joalharia:

• Danish farm sells potatoes for 1,500 kroner per kilo
• Olhar para o problema sob uma perspectiva diferente (Maio de 2014)

BTW, os fabricantes low-cost de cortinas em PVC para a casa de banho deram cabo do produto. Hoje, já ninguém usa esse material, mesmo que seja produzido por fabricantes com cuidado. No redemoinho turbulento da tragédia dos comuns ninguém se safa... o Rei Lear: Uma estória amoral, todos perdem os bons e os maus.

Todos acabam por perder, mesmo o que não seguem a via cancerosa, porque a marca Portugal vai ficar queimada.

"Warns of Margin Threat as Niche Brands Disrupt Industry" (parte II)

Há um mês a parte I.

Agora, outro texto sobre os nichos e sobre o seu poder em "Niche is the New Black in China’s Luxury Landscape":

"Over the last few years, a quiet but steady shift has been taking place among Chinese luxury shoppers. Big logos are no longer a priority, and in their place, niche high-end labels and boutique products have been reshaping the retail landscape and are now becoming the new signifiers of luxury consumption.
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This swing has been propelled by changes within the market itself, which has become younger and increasingly more sophisticated.
...
they’re also looking for authenticity, originality, and a sense of personality. Niche brands often capture all that.”
...
“The smaller you are the easier it is to have a one-to-one conversation,” she said. “As a niche brand, you have to be better than the larger brands at placing the consumer first. [Moi ici: Trabalhar para a miudagem versus trabalhar com o Miguel ou Maria] The more consumer-centric the better. The other very important attribute of being niche is the team you build and how their passion translates into a more special experience for the consumer. [And then there is] the power of the consumers themselves. They have become our most important ambassadors. From the day they discover us, they learn and engage until they become part of who we are.”
...
“Many of the major brands have started looking similar, and innovation has slowed,” she explained, “while smaller labels are offering something novel and exciting to the market. They have a story to share and are captivating customers with that story or journey. Shoppers want more, and niche brands are able to connect on an intimate level with them.” [Moi ici: Este sublinhado final faz-me lembrar este postal ""-Tu não és meu irmão de sangue!""]

Mateus 13:9

Recordo "Mongo a bater à porta. Tão bom!!!" e:

"O artigo é um exemplo da tendência que enquadramos no fenómeno a que chamamos de Mongo. Os gigantes, emaranhados com o seu umbigo, muito preocupados com a eficiência e os custos, tentando ser tudo para todos, abrem as oportunidades a novos actores."

Agora encontro "When Patients Become Innovators":

"Patients are increasingly able to conceive and develop sophisticated medical devices and services to meet their own needs — often without any help from companies that produce or sell medical products.
...
Unlike traditional producers, who start with market research and R&D, free innovation begins with consumers identifying something they need or want that is not available in the marketplace. To address this, they invest their own funds, expertise, and free time to create a solution. Rather than seeking to protect their designs from imitators, as commercial innovators do, we found that more than 90% of consumer innovators make their designs available to everyone for free.
...
The ability of patients to develop new medical products to serve their own needs is growing, and we expect the system to become stronger over time for several important reasons. First, the DIY design tools that patient innovators need are becoming cheaper and increasingly capable. People with fairly rudimentary engineering skills can acquire powerful design software that can run on an ordinary personal computer either for free or for very little money. Second, the materials and tools used to build products from DIY designs are also becoming both cheaper and increasingly capable."

Recordo também "Os humanos são todos diferentes":

“There is no perfect product, because there is no perfect patient” and “It’s a good product, but it’s not right for everyone.”

Recordo também esta leitura de 2007:

"In 1970, 5% of global patents were issued to small entrepeneurs, while today the number is around one-third and rising. When P&G realized this, it saw that its old model of purely internal innovation was suboptimal. Why not tap these entrepeneurs and scientists?"

E esta outra de 2011:

"The mass market — which made average products for average people was invented by organizations that needed to keep their factories and systems running efficiently.
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Stop for a second and think about the backwards nature of that sentence.
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The factory came first. It led to the mass market. Not the other way around."

 E deixo-vos com os industrialistas e a sua tendência para a suckiness.

O senhor eurodeputado precisa de conhecer Mongo e ...

O mundo muda, mas muitas pessoas não se apercebem e, por isso, continuam apegadas aos mitos do paradigma onde nasceram e foram enformados.

Recordo aqui no blogue muitas vezes uma frase de Napoleão:

Nesse mundo o crescimento era possível ao estilo canceroso, por isso uso a  metáfora de Metropolis ou de Magnitograd, ou Magnitogorsk. 

Para quem está prisioneiro do paradigma do século XX a falta de pessoal para trabalhar é medonha. Porque ainda não chegaram ao fim deste postal, "Coisa de loucos", porque nunca leram esta série "Como aumentar a facturação quando não se pode aumentar a produção por falta de pessoas?", continuam focados na última guerra, que já acabou, e fazem figuras tristes: "José Manuel Fernandes diz que é necessário "aumentar a natalidade"" 

A juntar a "10 profissões tradicionais onde há falta de gente" e a:

"Por outro lado, grande parte dos profissionais que dominam este ofício trabalha por conta própria, mostrando pouca disponibilidade para aceitar desafios por conta de outrem que embora estejam hoje mais valorizados monetariamente, continuam a não ser suficientemente aliciantes."

Encontro agora "As profissões sem 'canudo' que oferecem salários acima da média".

Tudo sintomas previstos aqui no blogue há muito, muito tempo.

O senhor eurodeputado precisa de conhecer Mongo e mergulhar no Estranhistão, precisa desta epifania:


BTW, comparem a primeira frase do vídeo com o discurso do feike niús.

"will lead to a big change for manufacturing"

Os trechos que se seguem parecem retirados daqui do blogue. Há anos que escrevemos sobre esta tendência.

"Personalised production is an evolution of customization that enables companies to differentiate their offer through innovative products for specific needs of a customer or a target group thanks to adaptable and reconfigurable production systems supported by easy-to-use product configuration systems to make processes along the supply chain efficient. In this scope, the proposed mission is to turn ideas into products by transforming passive consumers into active participants in the production of their own products thanks to new technologies that can enhance and empower their capabilities. This mission implies a paradigm shift because innovation will not originate anymore from the identification of consumer requirements; indeed, innovation and production will be taken out of the factory boundaries to allow people to be the decision makers during the design and production process in new collaborative supply chain models.
Consumer goods (e.g. clothing, footwear, sports items, glasses) but also other kinds of product such as medical products (personalised orthopaedic prosthetics, dental prosthetics, etc.) or durable goods (cars, kitchens, buildings facades, etc.), and even food can be produced based on the ideas of and by customers applying an approach of self-managed personalisation. In this way, they can create products with a unique design and style, along with functional and comfort-related aspects, going beyond the conventional choice dictated by off-the-shelf products.
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This mission will lead to a big change for manufacturing heading towards socialization and massive involvement of consumers. Many small and medium sized manufacturers (e.g. SMEs, fab-labs and even individuals) will participate in different market segments, while evolving into production service providers to satisfy customers’ personalised requirements. These entities will further aggregate into dynamic communities in a decentralized system and win bargaining power and efficiency. Moreover, new companies will basically sell ideas and their integration into new and dynamic value chains and markets.
...
The implementation of the proposed mission will have an indirect impact also on sustainability since production will shift from Make-to-Stock to Customise-to- Order,"

Trechos retirados de "Key Research Priorities for Factories of the Future—Part I: Missions" de Tullio Tolio, Giacomo Copani e Walter Terkaj, publicado em "Factories of the Future The Italian Flagship Initiative", 

"The traditional playbook for strategy is no longer sufficient"

"Many of today's business leaders came of age studying and experiencing a classical model of competition. [Moi ici: Como não recordar as palavras de Napoleão] Most large companies participated in well-defined industries selling similar sets of products; they gained advantage by pursuing economies of scale and static capabilities such as efficiency and quality; [Moi ici: Como não recordar o Normalistão e o plancton] and they achieved those advantages through deliberate analysis, planning, and focused execution.
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The traditional playbook for strategy is no longer sufficient, however. Across all businesses, competition is becoming more complex and dynamic. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a explosão de picos na paisagem enrugada] Industry boundaries are blurring. Product and company lifespans are shrinking. Technological progress and disruption are rapidly transforming business. High economic, political, and competitive uncertainty is conspicuous and likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
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Accordingly, in addition to the classical advantages of scale, companies are now contending with new dimensions of competition  —   shaping malleable situations, adapting to uncertain ones, and surviving harsh ones  —   which in turn require new approaches. And the stakes are higher than ever: the gap between the performance of top- and bottom-quartile companies has increased in each of the last six decades.[Moi ici: Como não recordar o bispo Berkeley]
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Today's business leaders are having to deal with multiple and complex short-term concerns, like declining growth, political uncertainty, resistance to globalization, social division, and so on. But as the 2020s approach, leaders must also look beyond today's situation and understand at a more fundamental level what will separate the winners from the losers in the next decade."

Trecho retirado de "Today's CEO playbook is outdated. Here are 5 things rising stars should focus on to win in the next decade"

Como aumentar a facturação quando não se pode aumentar a produção por falta de pessoas?

Como relacionar "Falta de mão de obra desespera empresas" e esta série "O que aí vem! (parte II)" e parte I, com "O que são os custos de oportunidade" e estes canários na mina (""Warns of Margin Threat as Niche Brands Disrupt Industry""; ""profecia fácil do "hollowing", ou "radioclubização", de como uma marca forte e genuína se transforma numa carcaça, num aristocrata arruinado, fruto de deixarem os muggles à solta""; ""Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XIII)" e "Será o efeito de Mongo?"

E ainda aquele sublinhado de "Acerca da Micam"?

Cada vez mais sinais de que a ascensão dos nichos, o avanço de Mongo, começa a fazer mossa no modelo paradigmático do século XX, o trabalhar para o interior da caixa da normalidade onde estava a maioria dos clientes: o Normalistão:

Em Mongo, também chamado de Estranhistão, a maioria das pessoas não quer ser tratada como plancton, e há que trabalhar para todo o espectro de clientes/nichos porque há cada vez mais gente fora da caixa da normalidade:

A demografia por um lado, e a fiscalidade e o assalto das gerações mais velhas ao bolso das mais novas por outro (ainda esta semana li "Cerca de 90 mil portugueses emigraram em 2017" - lembram-se disto ser motivo de rasgar de vestes no tempo da troika) vão criar um desafio para as empresas: como aumentar a facturação quando não se pode aumentar a produção por falta de pessoas?

Ou subir na escala de valor, ou mudar de ramo, ou deslocalizar para África.

Continua.

"Warns of Margin Threat as Niche Brands Disrupt Industry"

Isto é um bálsamo para o autor deste blogue porque vem suportar as suas ideias à revelia do mainstream e da tríade. Recordar "profecia fácil do "hollowing", ou "radioclubização", de como uma marca forte e genuína se transforma numa carcaça, num aristocrata arruinado, fruto de deixarem os muggles à solta"

"Shares in Beiersdorf dropped more than 10 percent on Wednesday after the maker of Nivea skin cream warned that its operating margin would fall in 2019 as it invests to compete with niche brands that are disrupting the sector.
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Beiersdorf was the latest consumer goods company to reset profit expectations for 2019 after German rival Henkel and Colgate-Palmolive last month, and following Kraft Heinz's write-down last week.
...
the future of mass-market labels was being challenged by the rise of small, disruptive brands as consumers increasingly expect more personalised products and services."

 Basta recordar os artigos relacionados com os marcadores até em baixo. Como não relacionar aquele "expect more personalised products and services" com a metáfora do plankton... a vida está difícil para a suckiness dos gigantes: "Mongo, micro-marcas, plancton, suckiness e emprego"

Trechos retirados de "Nivea Maker Warns of Margin Threat as Niche Brands Disrupt Industry"

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"The beer item collectors association BAV also published a bimonthly magazine that frequently reported on historic Dutch breweries. A number of writers also began addressing the history of Dutch beer brewing. As a result, there was growing awareness of the history of Dutch brewing, and a growing amount was recollected and curated, increasing the availability and accessibility of the remnants of the craft logic.
Thus during the first stage of logic reemergence, institutional change took off once ties between the previously dormant and dispersed custodians of the decomposed logic were regenerated. This involved restorative activities as dormant actors were reawakened, ties between them were reestablished, and the remnants of the decomposed logic were again made available and accessible. It also involved transformative activities as the dormant custodians of craft became organized in new ways, new recruits became absorbed in these networks, and foreign entities also came to be regarded as representations of a craft-brewing logic that had decomposed in the Netherlands.
...
PINT’s membership grew from 30 in 1981 to over 1,000 by 1994, and its bimonthly magazine attracted an increasingly wide readership in the Dutch beer-brewing field. But since PINT became organized around multiple local chapters that kept close ties with local pubs, hobby brewing associations, and eventually nascent craft breweries, which were not necessarily members of the association, the texts it produced were indicative of a developing national discourse and captured the regenerated vocabulary of practice surrounding craft brewing that began to emerge from reestablished networks. PINT not only provided a platform for alternative voices in the beer industry but also deliberately disseminated texts about what was ‘‘wrong’’ with the beer industry and what remedies were needed according to emerging ideas that were constitutive of this discourse.
A recurring component of these texts was the use of frames in which prototypical examples of modern brewing, industrial brewing corporations such as Heineken, were depicted as a foil to provide a favorable contrast for craft brewers."

Impressionante como uma revolução pode ser gerada por um movimento de base, que vai agrupando de forma ad-hoc indivíduos e grupos gerando um todo coerente.

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O interessante é como este renascimento

começou a partir de um movimento de base, sem grandes recursos, sem patrocínios, sem intervenções governamentais.

"A key development was the emergence of five independent beer pubs that were not contractually tied to any industrial brewer and that began to import modest amounts of traditional foreign craft beer, predominantly Belgian ale, as an alternative to Dutch industrial lager. These locales, where individuals with ‘‘strange tastes’’ could meet (to quote a representative of one of these pubs), were Cafe ́ De Beyerd in Breda, Gollem in Amsterdam, Jan Primus in Utrecht, ‘t Pumpke in Nijmegen, and Locus Publicus in Rotterdam and Delft. The idea to import foreign beers emerged when the founders of these pubs came in contact with traditional beer styles that were still being brewed in Belgium, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
...The owners of pioneering beer pubs started with very modest means and ambitions and were surprised by the impact of their actions. Their initial success was followed by an emerging network of importers that began to specialize in foreign traditional craft beer.
...
The attention given to traditional alternatives reawakened actors with marginalized or dissolved roles, who were dissatisfied with the state of the Dutch beer-brewing industry. The exposure to foreign traditional craft beer led to these actors’ growing perception that something had been lost in the Netherlands with the shift toward industrial brewing. The pioneering beer pubs gave these actors a chance to meet and (re)connect. One of these, Gollem in Amsterdam, began to organize an annual beer festival in 1978 for alternative Dutch beer. Initially, this was a very small-scale affair, but the festival grew from 65 to over 300 visitors within two years and would eventually attract more than 10,000 visitors...The pubs and their festivals thus provided an important space for marginalized actors, like enthusiast consumers, brewmasters, and pub owners, to connect and discuss the state of Dutch beer brewing. Importantly, these groups contained both individuals with access to institutional remnants and individuals who were entirely new to beer brewing.
...
A group of Dutch beer enthusiasts who frequented the pioneering pubs also regularly traveled to London to visit pubs there. They noticed that the diversity of beers and brewing practices was higher in the UK and that there was a consumer association—the Campaign for Real Ale or CAMRA—promoting the revitalization of traditional craft brewing. This group would go on to establish the Dutch beer consumer association PINT.
...
The establishment of PINT initiated the emergence of an ecosystem of new collective organizations that all contributed to a nostalgia-infused movement for change in the industry.
...
In 1983, Nico van Dijk co-established a foundation for beer item collectors (BAV), which fueled greater awareness of traditional Dutch craft brewing. In 1984, the first modern brewers’ guilds—De Roerstok and Twents Bierbrouwersgilde—were established to encourage hobby brewing, inspiring a new generation of brewery entrepreneurs. The Bier Keurmeesters Gilde (BKG) that trains judges for the independent examination of the quality of amateur beers during competitions and tastings was established in 1986. And in 1987, an association for specialty beer pubs (ABT) was established, which acted as a catalyst for the distribution of craft beer. Collectively, these initiatives amplified the initial effect of the pioneering pubs. They revitalized marginalized actor groups by reawakening traditional members, providing them with spaces to reconnect and reflect, and attracting new recruits."

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte II)

Parte I.

Voltemos à tabela 1:

O que vemos ali dentro da área sublinhada é um retrato fiel do paradigma económico do século XX.

Não admira a evolução do número de sobreviventes:

No modelo económico do século XX, o modelo gerado pela Revolução Industrial e que atingiu o seu apogeu no século XX, só existe um pico na paisagem competitiva. No final só pode existir um vencedor.

Mas em Mongo, o modelo económico deixa de ser único e abrem-se muitos outros picos:

Cada pico representa uma hipótese de procurar o sucesso. E ter sucesso num pico pouco tem a ver com ter sucesso num outro pico. Daí a minha exortação, concentrem-se nos clientes-alvo e não na concorrência.

Recomendo uma comparação das duas colunas, na figura acima, entre "Traditional Craft Brewing" e "Modern Industrial Brewing" - dois modelos tão diferentes!!!

O que é que aconteceu para que o renascimento típico de Mongo ocorresse a partir dos anos 70 do século passado?

"The dominance of the large industrial brewers led to substantial diminishment and, ultimately, dissolution of the roles of field actors who used to carry traditional craft brewing. But this decomposed logic left behind institutional remnants that continued to be at least partially conserved [Moi ici: Isto faz-me lembrar uma empresa de calçado que conheço que tem uma fatia muito grande de trabalhadores reformados. Gente com mais de 65 anos e que continua a trabalhar. A quantidade de gente que domina a arte de cortar pele à mão é impressionante. Sobretudo nestes tempos de balancés e máquinas de corte.]
...
While these remnants appear to be important resources for institutional change, regenerating them was rife with challenges due to their significant degree of decomposition. First, although there were individuals who could act as custodians of these institutional remnants, they were dispersed and had either become disembedded from the field or had completely switched to modern industrial brewing. Until 1980, there had been no collective efforts in the field to maintain or conserve elements of the craft-brewing logic. Craft-brewing remnants were therefore scattered around the field. Second, the remaining remnants provided only an incomplete set of representations of the traditional logic, which was insufficiently actionable.
...
Traditional craft brewing had come to be associated with inferior quality as compared with modern industrial brewing, in part because of the political efforts of the modern industrial brewers. Compliance with increased ‘‘quality’’ regulations imposed in 1926, which had resulted in part from industrial brewers’ lobbying efforts, required substantial investments in ingredients and equipment, which many traditional breweries were unable to make [Moi ici: Tão típico! ASAEs et al são criações dos gigantes para afastar concorrência. Recuo a 2010 onde escrevi "Quanto mais maduro estiver um sector para consolidação, maior a torrente de legislação e regulamentação sobre ele. Antes de começar a comprar concorrentes, há que expulsar os mais fracos do mercado, ou criar-lhes dificuldades extra para que sintam uma oferta de aquisição como um alívio bem-vindo."]. These policies, which had institutionalized crisp industrial lager as the dominant and qualitatively superior product, combined with the natural stigma associated with failure initially disqualified remnants left behind by the traditional carriers of craft brewing as legitimate building blocks for later change efforts.
In spite of these challenges, however, the craft-brewing logic reemerged in the Netherlands through the establishment of 489 new breweries between 1980 and 2016. These new organizations collectively regenerated the institutional remnants of craft. This led to fundamental institutional change, as these organizations contributed to the restoration of the institutional orders of the community, family, professions, and religion in the field.
...
The process of regenerative institutional change in Dutch beer brewing began during the early 1970s, when networks of actors with marginalized roles—such as brewmasters and members of traditional brewing families, who were the dormant custodians of craft brewing—were restored and transformed. These groups were reawakened when they were exposed to the surviving elements of traditional craft brewing in surrounding countries and began to mix with other marginal actors who were attracted to a budding hobby-brewing scene. Out of these interactions developed a growing sense that something of value had been left behind with the shift to modern industrial brewing. This fueled an interest in Dutch beer-brewing history and the mobilization of resources to promote nostalgia-infused change, ultimately leading to the rediscovery of what was left of the decomposed craft-brewing logic."

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte I)

"Many organizational fields in which modernity has seemingly taken hold may experience a revival of traditional arrangements. Revival dynamics are visible in organizational fields as diverse as cattle farming, retail banking, radio broadcasting, and whisky distilling. Such cases pose a puzzle for institutional change theoreticians, who, ... have long depicted change as a process of modern institutional arrangements destroying and replacing traditional ones. Institutional change can thus paradoxically also occur through the reemergence of traditional arrangements that challenge modern ones.
...
Regenerative institutional change thus refers to shifts that occur due to the reemergence of logics that had previously experienced decline and decomposition due to modernization. The development of the grass-fed livestock market in the U.S. as a result of the revival of traditional farming practices suggests a reemergence of particular logics that had previously dwindled in importance due to a shift toward industrial agriculture. The microradio movement in the U.S. spurred the reemergence of communal, religious, and educational radio stations by way of restoring low-power radio technology that had previously been abandoned as a result of increasing corporate concentration and federal regulation. And the reemergence of community banks in areas in the U.S. that were previously subject to acquisition activity by large national banks also suggests that shifts toward particular logics can be reversed.
...
craft revival followed an extensive period of total domination by industrial brewing. 

...
Modern industrial brewing. The Industrial Revolution, the invention of the corporation, and substantial improvements in the transportability of perishable goods ultimately enabled both the proliferation of modern industrial breweries and the emergence of a very different institutional logic around the turn of the twentieth century. [Moi ici: O Normalistão] Although there were many other examples, Heineken is the epitome of industrial brewing. It was established in 1864, when the son of a trader in cheese and butter acquired a struggling traditional brewery that had recently become a limited liability company. Heineken quickly developed into one of the largest breweries globally by focusing on mass production of industrial lager. The economic rationalization of beer brewing by Heineken and others led to a dramatic homogenization of products, such that by 1980 all of the beer produced in the Netherlands could be classified as industrial lager and traditional breweries had failed en masse. As an ideal type, modern industrial brewing involved a concern with profit, market power, and economies of scale; an automated and standardized brewing process; and a highly rational approach to the organization of production and sales, in which brewmasters became operations managers who were hierarchically subjected to financial and sales managers. Table 1 contrasts the ideal-typical logics of traditional craft and modern industrial brewing."

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

Contrarian!

A propósito de "Robôs e outras coisas que vale a pena discutir" e de "“Robôs” eliminam 1,1 milhões de empregos em Portugal até 2030, avisa estudo da CIP" fico com a habitual sensação de quem escreve estes textos e estes relatórios não vive no mesmo mundo que eu.

Esta semana em conversa com empresa metalomecânica senti alguma incomodidade quando abordamos o robô de soldadura. Adquirido como a última coca-cola no meio do deserto tem-se revelado um destruidor de produtividade. O mesmo tema que já tenho apanhado no calçado, quando tentam introduzir robôs.

Há dias citei aqui um texto sobre os robôs e a automação na Toyota, ""Anyone can buy robots" o pior é o resto":

"Only those robots that work really well and are cost-effective still have a chance of keeping their jobs at Toyota under Kawai. He explains: After looking at the robots that weld together the base of the Toyota Land Cruiser, he noticed that the welding seam was too wide and had a few defects. "I shut down the entire robot line and I said: 'We'll do it manually again,'" says Kawai. Unlike the robots, human workers could see where a groove to be welded was one millimeter wide and where it was only half a millimeter wide and could then react flexibly. "The use of welding wire alone has decreased by 10%," he says with pride."

O que encontro sistematicamente, no calçado e na metalomecânica, são empresas que compram robôs a pensar que só precisam de os instalar e, depois, só precisam de tirar as pessoas e a produtividade sobe.

Por exemplo, esquecem-se das matérias-primas... concluía a empresa metalomecânica. Continuamos a comprar o tubo onde sempre o compramos, só que agora com o robô... se um tubo vem ligeiramente ovalizado é logo um problema. O robô faz a soldadura, mas ela fica imperfeita e tem de ser corrigida por um soldador. Resultado, produção mais lenta e mantemos o humano. Se queremos "mais qualidade, mais rigor" no tubo, temos de meter alguém a fazer controlo da qualidade, a usar equipamento de medida mais sofisticado, e eventualmente a comprar matéria-prima mais cara.

O mesmo no calçado. Trabalham com peles. Pele é uma matéria-prima natural, quem garante espessuras dentro de limites exigidos por um robô? Recomendo a leitura de "Os Robots na Industria do Calçado. Muitas vantagens, algumas dificuldades."

Outro factor que é esquecido nas análises, lá de cima e nas outras, é que nós estamos a fugir do século XX, nós estamos a fugir do Normalistão e a embrenharmo-nos em Mongo, o Estranhistão. Recordo:

• Coisa de loucos (Maio de 2018)
• Seru (parte III) (Julho de 2017)
• Não acredito nestas relações simplistas (Julho de 2017)
• Cuidado com a automatização (Abril de 2017)
• Para recordar... (Outubro de 2016) de onde retiro:

"In principle, the production of virtually any component or assembly operation could be robotized and moved to high-wage countries—but only so long as demand is great enough, and design specifications stable enough, to justify huge scale and hundreds of millions, if not billions, in upfront investments." [Moi ici: Mongo mina logo dois dos pressupostos - tamanho da procura e estabilidade. Mongo é terra de tribos e de modas, terra de velocidade e instabilidade. Terra de gente que não quer ser tratada como plancton. Terra de gente que não se sente atraída pela suckiness.]

• Mongo, diversidade e o fim da mass production (Julho de 2016) 
• "mas o essencial é que o mercado de massas desapareceu" (Agosto de 2015) de onde retiro:

"People will be surprised - “[the use of robots] won’t be as disruptive as the hype today would suggest,” he continues.
.
“The more a robot can do, the more it will cost – humans should be able to still be less expensive than robots. Plus robots for the foreseeable future will have to specialise, and we humans don’t – we’re more flexible.”

•  Um mesmo processo automatizado é demasiado rígido para Mongo (Abril de 2014) de onde retiro:

"Toyota has found that the race to reduce the human element can end up making processes less efficient."

Por que é que esta corrente de pensamento não é mais divulgada? Vende menos, por ser mais optimista e menos alarmista?

" The goal isn’t winning; it’s being part of the group"

Nas minhas caminhadas da manhã uma das companhias das últimas semanas tem sido Seth Godin. É um prazer ler Seth Godin em “This Is Marketing”! Um verdadeiro missionário de Mongo: o Estranhistão!

“One can gain status without an oil well or a factory. And one can enjoy as much status by letting someone into the flow of traffic as they can from cutting him off.
...
This is the status that comes from the community.[Moi ici: Pertencer a uma tribo!] It is the status of respect in return for contribution, for caring, for seeing and being in sync with others. Especially others with no ability to repay you.
Modern society, urban society, the society of the internet, the arts, and innovation are all built primarily on affiliation, not dominion.
This type of status is not “I’m better.” It’s “I’m connected. I’m family.” And in an economy based on connection, not manufacturing, being a trusted member of the family is priceless.
...
What are they showing? What is everyone else doing? Is this the season?
Within competitive markets, there is a race to be the dominant voice, but among the customers that make up that market, the position of leader works because the customers desire to be affiliated with one another.
The leader provides a valuable signal, a notice to expect that everyone else will be in sync. The goal isn’t winning; it’s being part of the group.”

Excerto de: Seth Godin. “This Is Marketing”. Apple Books.

Para aumentar salários ... (parte III)

Ontem, via Twitter, cheguei a "Progressivity, not Productivity" e senti-me em sintonia:

"We aren’t really designing tools or practices to increase output, per se, despite using the term ‘productivity’ so liberally. We are really seeking to improve outcomes, which is something different altogether. And that distinction is critical, because it opens the door to incorporating innovation, creativity, and the emergent value of people cooperating toward mutual ends."

Interessante como isto está relacionado com "Para aumentar salários ... (parte II e parte I)"

Agora reparo que posso induzir em erro na parte II e parte I ao escrever "vendas +". Na verdade, talvez a formação mais feliz na matriz seja "quantidade +".

Para aumentar salários ... (parte II)

Parte I.

Muitas empresas olham para o desafio da rentabilidade de uma forma amputada:

O máximo que esperam da margem unitária é que não baixe, porque o normal será que baixe e, por isso, só vêem uma saída, o crescimento das vendas, o aumento da dimensão da empresa para que possa produzir cada vez mais e mais.

E penso em Mongo, penso no futuro económico em que nos estamos a entranhar e nas suas consequências para o modelo do século XX baseado em "faster and cheaper, repeat".

Claro que continuará a existir espaço para as empresas grandes que tiram partido das grandes quantidades. Afinal em Mongo ainda existirá um centrão, cada vez mais pequeno, mas ainda existirá:

Mas será um espaço cada vez mais profissional e exigente, o tal espaço que não é para quem quer, mas para quem pode.

E o triste ou problemático é Mongo estar a entranhar-se e tantas PMEs, capazes de trabalharem a vantagem competitiva de fazerem algo de "pessoas para pessoas", serem incapazes de ultrapassar a sua amputação e perceberem que se pode subir na escala de valor:

"O que passa-se?" (parte II)

Parte I.

O artigo continua com um exemplo já conhecido aqui do blogue, a Local Motors (postal de 2012, outro de 2016 e outro de 2017).

"A small U.S. startup called Local Motors offers an intriguing glimpse into the future of manufacturing. The company manages five so-called microfactories around the world, which primarily use 3D-printing equipment to produce such modern-day curios as Olli, a self-driving shuttle bus with IBM Watson artificial intelligence that can be hailed via a smartphone app and follows voice instructions; a cargo-carrying drone for Airbus dubbed the Zelator; and the world’s first 3D-printed car, the Strati — road-worthy if not a speedster — built live in 44 hours at the International Manufacturing Technology Show.
.
But the 3D-printing aspect of Local Motors’ business model is just a small part of what makes this company worth examining. The company is also crowdsourcing production designs from a network of global participants,
...
As the microfactory concept evolves, Local Motors will build new plants wherever its customers are located, and each manufactured item will effectively be one of a kind, built to suit the tastes and requirements of individual consumers. Scale is replaced by potential savings from engineering, design, parts, labor, and efficiency in a 3D microfactory. Local Motors describes this approach as making money from scope. In other words, it offers useful, attractive, bespoke products to customers who are within shouting distance of its factories, at a price that matches the distinctive value of the item.
Local Motors is still a nascent business — and may or may not ultimately succeed — but at its core it reflects a vital shift in production dogma that manufacturers of all sizes will have to reckon with in the coming years. After decades of chasing lower production costs and scale by extending factory footprints and supply chains deeper into emerging nations and distributing products around the world in huge quantities over complex logistics networks, manufacturers are finding that their globalized approach is losing its viability. In particular, their centralized management structure, lengthy supply chains, lack of product variety, and long shipping times are impeding regional agility — and, in some cases, placing them at a disadvantage to local competition.
Instead, the new strategic archetype for successful manufacturers will be based on a relatively simple idea: The most efficient manufacturing setup is the one that makes goods in appropriate volumes to meet demand at the point of demand, with plenty of room for local and individual customization. Much of this concept will be driven by advances in technology — 3D printing, factory innovations, e-commerce, data analytics, and the Internet of Things, to name a few
...
Moreover, the impact of the point-of-demand model will not be limited to the business-to- consumer environment. Suppliers in the business-to-business realm will also be under pressure to improve responsiveness as part of the campaign by their customers — that is, manufacturers — to shorten the value chain and more proactively serve the end consumer.
The implications are problematic for some companies: Manufacturers that are today highly invested in a global factory network of multiple large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find their business models becoming obsolete faster than they ever expected. [Moi ici: Recordar esta reflexão de 2014] However, the nimblest manufacturers stand to reap significant gains from this new model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of warehousing products in bulk — only to ultimately jettison some of them as dead stock — will decline. In addition, savings will be generated by the reduction in expensive long-range production planning and supply chain management. And for companies able to outpace rivals in producing products that are best suited to customer needs — making these items available when customers want them — sales margins should rise markedly."

Conseguem imaginar como isto vai mudar o paradigma económico? Conseguem visualizar o fim do mundo criado pelo século XX?

"O que passa-se?"

Normalmente aqui no blogue, chamo a atenção para a cegueira das empresas de consultoria grandes, parece que escondem dos seus clientes grandes o impacte de Mongo na sua actividade.

Julgo que é a primeira vez que encontro um texto de uma consultora grande sobre Mongo e as suas implicações na economia, nos ecossistemas e na dimensão das empresas.

"In the next manufacturing revolution, spurred on by technologies that reinvent the way a factory can create products, such as 3D printing and robotics, companies will also need to rethink what they make and where they make it. Products will come off the assembly line in small, highly customized batches, like a high-tech version of old-fashioned craftsmanship. [Moi ici: Digam lá se isto não é uma entrada à matador com Mongo em toda a linha!!! Desde os pequenos lotes até aos artesãos tecnológicos longe das máquinas-monumento tão queridas dos que pensam que o Normalistão do século XX automatizado será o paradigma produtivo do século XXI]
.
The revolution is on its way, and within the next five to 10 years, manufacturers in all industries will find themselves in a race to efficiently produce products at the point of demand — that is, where their customers are — and to deliver these items when their customers want them, personalized to their customers’ individual tastes. They will have to make strategic choices to stay competitive, investing in technology that allows them to continually analyze data about their customers’ preferences and buying habits so they can adapt quickly to changes in market conditions. Factories will be smaller, [Moi ici: Imaginem os cromos da Junqueira ao ler estas blasfémias!] operating with minimal lead times and shorter value chains. Management will be decentralized, the supply chain will be simplified and shortened, and the distance separating the manufacturer from its customers will be sharply reduced.
.
Although technology will enable this new manufacturing model, customers will compel its adoption. In emerging markets as well as developed regions, customers increasingly expect products that match local cultural preference rather than homogeneous global brands and business-to-business services. The auto industry pioneered this localized model as long ago as the 1980s, when Japanese automakers entered the U.S. market with cars tailored to American tastes. But only recently have other industries taken up this approach — with refrigerators, toothpaste, furniture, clothing, and software that are designed for each region. The popularity of e-commerce has changed the customer experience, giving people more information about products and competitors’ products, pricing, and, through peer reviews, quality. For the first time, customers can reasonably demand from mass producers products that look and feel like they were made next door.
.
Nimble manufacturers will reap significant gains from the point-ofdemand model. As their supply systems become more responsive and as local customer demand becomes less of a guessing game, inventory inefficiencies and the carrying costs of having to warehouse products in bulk will decline. The expense of supply chain management and production planning will drop as well. And companies able to produce personalized products that are best suited to customer needs when customers want them will enjoy higher sales margins. By contrast, as point-of-demand manufacturing takes hold, companies that operate global factory networks with large centralized plants, managed by traditional operating systems, organizations, and processes, may find that their business models are outmoded."

Ao chegar aqui recordei, "Pedro Nuno Santos quer Estado como motor do desenvolvimento", porque estava a nascer em mim um outro pensamento, o oposto... o que esperar de um contrarian-militante! O que seria a orientação geral de um governo para facilitar a transição para este tipo de sociedade?

Empresas pequenas, DIY, empreendedorismo verdadeiro não treta para sacar Portugal 2020, fiscalidade normanda, legislação laboral, democratização da produção.

Esta transição vai acontecer, inevitavelmente, pedida, ordenada pelos clientes, pelas tribos de Mongo. E teremos governos cada vez mais incapazes de perceber o que se passa, questionando-se, "O que passa-se?", cada vez mais crentes nas virtudes do Normalistão, num mundo que se afasta cada vez mais desse paradigma.

Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order: The rise of the point-of-demand model"