"IT's been a tough year for manufacturers, with supply-chain snags, inflation and fears of a recession. Yet a shocking 95% of manufacturing executives said they were optimistic about the future, according to a recent poll by Forbes, Xometry and Zogby.The nationwide survey of 150 manufacturing executives in late December found that three-fifths (60%) of executives said "the future looks bright," while another one-third (35%) said they "see the light at the end of the tunnel?"
"Most big projects are not merely at risk of not delivering as promised. Nor are they only at risk of going seriously wrong. They are at risk of going disastrously wrong because their risk is fat-tailed. Against that background, it is interesting to note that the project management literature almost completely ignores systematic study of the fat-tailedness of project risk....smaller projects are susceptible to fat tails, too....major corporations on the hook for runaway projects may be able to keep things going by borrowing more and more money. Governments can also pile up debt. Or raise taxes. But most ordinary folks and small businesses cannot draw on a big stockpile of wealth, run up debt, or raise taxes. If they start a project that hurtles toward the fat tail of the distribution, they will simply be wiped out, giving them even more reason than a corporate executive or government official to take the danger seriously. And that starts by understanding what causes project failure....Projects that fail tend to drag on, while those that succeed zip along and finish. Why is that? Think of the duration of a project as an open window. The longer the duration, the more open the window. The more open the window, the more opportunity for something to crash through and cause trouble, including a big, bad black swan....From the dramatic to the mundane to the trivial, change can rattle or ruin a project—if it occurs during the window of time when the project is ongoing. Solution? Close the window. Of course, a project can’t be completed instantly, so we can’t close the window entirely. But we can make the opening radically smaller by speeding up the project and bringing it to a conclusion faster. That is a main means of reducing risk on any project.In sum, keep it short!"
Como reduzir a janela de oportunidade para a desgraça?
Resposta rápida, simples, mas errada: Começar já, começar depressa.
Continua.
Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui sobre as plataformas e o "não é winner-take-all". Por exemplo:
“The opposite of broadcast: the distribution economics of the internet favor infinite niches, not one-size-fits-all.”
— Jim O'Shaughnessy (@jposhaughnessy) February 18, 2023
~ David Shields
Um número infinto de nichos ... afinal o que é Mongo? Pois, E porque não somos plankton (parte VII)
"Our research found striking variations in productivity among leading and lagging firms within each sector. Manufacturing provides a particularly stark example, where leading firms operate at 5.4 times the productivity of laggards. Academic researchers have documented similar trends in services, particularly information and communications, which show wide disparities between leading firms and the rest.
Not only are productivity disparities within sectors quite wide — they’re also getting wider. Our research shows that in manufacturing, the gap was 25% wider in 2019 than it was in 1989.
...
These productivity gaps also suggest that firms can raise their own ambitions. Doing more with less, or doing more with the same, shows up in corporate income statements as higher margins and stronger revenue growth. And in aggregate, those performance improvements lead to economy-wide changes in productivity.
...
From 1989 to 2019, our research finds a strong correlation between sectors’ productivity growth and their level of digitization.
...
Frontier firms go beyond technology investments and also place bets on complementary intangibles such as R&D, intellectual property, and the capabilities of their workforce.
...
Frontier firms also disproportionately secure the skilled talent they need to get the most out of technology, either by attracting top talent or by an in-house investment in employee skills.
...
Frontier companies are typically system thinkers, looking for opportunities to access new markets or collaborate creatively with stakeholders.
High-performing firms tend to be more connected to global value chains, giving them access to global markets, ideas, and talent. They collaborate with suppliers and customers to form new ecosystems that benefit from agglomeration effects and create shared pools of value."
Trechos retirados de "What the Most Productive Companies Do Differently"
"Não querendo ser redutor, a produtividade - especialmente ao nível empresarial - não está no quanto se produz, mas antes no valor do que se produz. Servir cafés à mesa não tem necessariamente menor produtividade que fabricar BMW. Tudo depende do valor (relativo) por que se vendem [Moi ici: Tão raro encontrar este apelo à aposta no numerador da equação da produtividade] cafés à mesa. Simplisticamente, é uma questão de modelo de negócio! Talvez seja porque em Portugal se dá pouca atenção ao modelo de negócio - i.e. o valor do que se produz - que a mão de obra mais qualificada procura oportunidades na emigração. A nossa sina parece ser a falta de um tecido empresarial que valorize as competências da nova geração, tida como a mais bem formada. [Moi ici: Não sei se será a melhor maneira de colocar o tema. As empresas não existem para dar trabalho, as empresas dão trabalho como instrumento para ganhar dinheiro. O ponto é mais a dificuldade, ou a não necessidade de subir na escala de valor (satisficing) para sobreviver. Só a aposta na subida na escala de valor traz como consequência o recurso a gente com mais competência. Não para fazer caridade, mas por puro interesse próprio] Se a maior realização é encontrada no estrangeiro, o sistema educativo fez um bom serviço. Não há como o negar A questão central talvez seja outra, relacionada com avarias noutros "elevadores sociais" de origem nacional."
Trecho retirado do artigo "Elevadores nacionais" de Álvaro Nascimento e publicado ontem no JdN.
Que questões externas podem afectar a sua empresa em 2023?
Como auditor vejo, como diz um conhecido, "muita conversa para boi dormir", ou como se diz no Twitter, "muito lero-lero". Por isso, achei interessante este artigo, "The 10 Biggest Risks And Threats For Businesses In 2023".
Claro que o que o artigo relata não são riscos, são elementos do contexto externo que se podem concatenar com elementos do contexto interno e fazer emergir alguns riscos. Quando há uma tragédia há os que choram e há os que vendem lenços. O facto das taxas de juro subirem pode ser um risco para um certo tipo de empresas, mas também pode ser uma oportunidade para quem não tenha dívida e trabalhe para um certo tipo de clientes.
"“The raised interest rates will continue to burn working capital for businesses across the economy,” Salvatore Stile, chairman of Alba Wheels Up International, an international shipping and customs clearance company, said via email.
“Because retailers are concerned with consumer demand, they will likely be more cautious in purchasing inventory to prevent over-supply in the retail market,” he predicted.
“This will burden small and medium-sized companies, who will have to be de facto warehouses for the retailers, as they hold products for more extended periods. We expect freight rates to reduce in 2023 when compared to 2022, as demand for overseas goods has reduced across the board,” Stile observed."
Que questões externas determinou? São do mesmo calibre que as relatadas no artigo? Ou são a treta do costume? Louvar o chefe, louvar a equipa, ao estilo miss mundo, dizer que a concorrência é maldosa, dizer que os fornecedores são malandros, e que o governo é a fonte de todos os males.
Como as traduziu em riscos ou oportunidades?
Lembram-se dos políticos, como Paulo Portas, muito preocupados com as importações e a exortarem as empresas exportadoras a trabalharem para substituir as importações?
- Burrice!
Recordo de 2017 - "Dedicado ao bicicletas" onde escrevi:
"Quando eu era estudante o paradigma era outro. A exportação era para ocupar capacidade residual e, por isso, bastava que pagasse os custos variáveis como recordo aqui."
Frequentemente leio a mesma tolice de Paulo Portas ou do bicicletas, aqui e acolá.
Somos um país pobre com fraco poder de compra, exportamos artigos a um preço mais alto do que o mercado interno pode suportar, e importamos artigos baratos que as empresas nacionais não conseguiriam produzir com lucro. Recordo:
"Empresas que exportam têm mais capacidade para aumentar lucros do que as que não o fazem. BdP estima que, com exportações, margens preço-custo aumentam entre 1,2% e 2,7%, com destaque para o setor não transformador. Maiores ganhos estão nas atividades científicas, comunicação e construção....As empresas portuguesas que exportam para o exterior conseguem mardens de lucro superiores até 2.7% face às empresas que vendem apenas no mercado nacional. A conclusão é de um estudo do Banco de Portugal (BdP), que indica que as margens de lucro aumentam assim que as empresas iniciam a atividade exportadora"
"Distinguishing between Model Land and real world would reduce the sensationalism of some headlines and would also encourage scientific results to clarify more clearly where or whether they are expected to apply to the real world as well.
...
As statistician George Box famously said, 'All models are wrong.' In other words, we will always be able to find ways in which models differ from reality, precisely because they are not reality. We can invalidate, disconfirm or falsify any model by looking for these differences. Because of this, models cannot act as simple hypotheses about the way in which the true system works, to be accepted or rejected.
...
Box's aphorism has a second part: "All models are wrong, but some are useful.' Even if we take away any philosophical or mathematical justification, we can of course still observe that many models make useful predictions, which can be used to inform actions in the real world with positive outcomes. Rather than claiming, however, that this gives them some truth value, it may be more appropriate to make the lesser claim that a model has been consistent with observation or adequate for a given purpose. Within the range of the available data, we can assess the substance of this claim and estimate the likelihood of further data points also being consistent.
...
The extrapolatory question, of the extent to which it will continue to be consistent with observation outside the range of the available data, is entirely reliant on the subjective judgement of the modeller."
Trechos retirados de "Escape from Model Land" de Erica Thompson.
"It was January 2022, and Mr. Chan's company, Man Wah Furniture Manufacturing, was confronting grave challenges in moving sofas from its factories in China to customers in the United States. Shipping prices were skyrocketing. Washington and Beijing were locked in a fierce trade war.
Man Wah, one of China's largest furniture companies, was eager to make its products on the North American side of the Pacific.
"Our main market is the United States," said Mr. Chan, chief executive of Man Wah's Mexico subsidiary. "We don't want to lose that market."
That same objective explains why scores of major Chinese companies are investing aggressively in Mexico, taking advantage of an expansive North American trade deal. [Moi ici: Os pró-Biden demonizam a trumpeconomics, os pró-Trump demonizam tudo o que Biden faz, mas na economia Biden segue e amplia o que Trump fez. Como diz Zeihan México, Estados Unidos e Canadá formam um bloco doméstico] Tracing a path forged by Japanese and South Korean companies, Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label their goods "Made in Mexico," then trucking their products into the United States duty-free.
The interest of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico is part of a broader trend known as nearshoring. International companies are moving production closer to customers to limit their vulnerability to shipping problems and geopolitical tensions." [Moi ici: O movimento é muito mais motivado pela economia do que pela política, em minha opinião. Num mundo mais incerto é cada vez mais racional ter a produção perto do consumo. Claro que a erosão da diferença de custos também ajuda.]
Trecho retirado de "Why Chinese Companies Are Investing Billions in Mexico"
"what’s less well-known is that the Guggenheim Bilbao also set a management standard that very few large projects have attained: It was delivered on time, within just six years, and cost $3 million less than the $100 million budgeted.
...
With such a clearly defined project, another architect may have treated this as a simple choice: either accept or pass. Gehry did neither. Instead, he did what he does with every potential client. He asked questions, starting with the most fundamental: “Why are you doing this project?” [Moi ici: Faz-me recordar as obras que são para a JMJ, ou para a requalificação da zona oriental, ou para ...]
...
By starting projects with meaningful questioning, and by carefully listening to the answers, Gehry figures out what the clients really want rather than what they think they want. [Moi ici: Faz-me recordar o "When you get what you want, and not what you need"]
...
When prospective clients come to Gehry’s firm, they are walked through the development of past projects so that they understand Gehry’s process. That’s crucial because the discussion to shape the project’s initial conception is not the end of their involvement. It’s the beginning. “Some people aren’t up for it,” notes Lloyd. “It takes a brave person to work with us.”
...
Gehry’s process asks much of everyone involved. It also consumes a great deal of time.[Moi ici: Então!? Assim, como conciliar com ajustes directos e a mentalidade do desenrasca? Planear com tempo? Pensar antes de começar a fazer?] For project proponents eager to have something to show for their efforts—and get to the finish line—extended planning can be frustrating, even unnerving. For them, planning is pushing paper, something to get over with. Only digging and building are progress. If you want to get things done, they think, get going.
This sentiment is easy to understand. But it is wrong. When projects are launched without detailed and rigorous plans, issues are left unresolved that will resurface during delivery, causing delays, cost overruns, and breakdowns. A scramble for more time and more money follows, along with efforts to manage the inevitable bad press. With leaders distracted in this manner, the probability of further breakdowns—more scrambling, more delays, more cost overruns—grows. Eventually, a project that started at a sprint becomes a long slog through quicksand." [Moi ici: Este "issues are left unresolved that will resurface during delivery" tem-me acontecido algumas vezes ao longo da vida como consultor. Sou subcontratado por entidade com quem quero ficar bem, mas apanho empresa que não está preparada para o projecto, que quer fazer o projecto sem recursos. O que me salva a sanidade mental é ter ao mesmo tempo outro projecto que com recursos adequados se executa em 5 meses ao lado de dois com mais de 18 meses]
Trechos retirados de "How Frank Gehry Delivers On Time and On Budget" de Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner na Harvard Business Review (Janeiro 2023)
Quantas vezes já senti esta suspeita ...
"As I will show, reliance on models for information tends to lead to a kind of accountability gap. Who is responsible if a model makes harmful predictions? The notion of 'following the science becomes a screen behind which both decision-makers and scientists can hide, saying the science says we must do X' in some situations and 'it's only a model' in others. The public are right to be suspicious of the political and social motives behind this kind of dissimulation. Scientists and other authorities must do better at developing and being worthy of trust by making the role of expert judgement much clearer, being transparent about their own backgrounds and interests, and encouraging wider representation of different backgrounds and interests.
...
Taking models literally and failing to account for the gap between Model Land and the real world is a recipe for underestimating risk and suffering the consequences of hubris. Yet throwing models away completely would lose us a lot of clearly valuable information. So how do we navigate the space between these extremes more effectively?"
Trechos retirados de "Escape from Model Land" de Erica Thompson.
Aqui no blogue em Abril de 2007 - "Estava escrito nas estrelas ...". Depois, em Abril de 2008 "Um caminho para a farmácia do futuro?" e esta série até Janeiro de 2018 - A farmácia do futuro (parte VII).
Por que engonhamos tanto? Tanta gente a defender o passado, tantos responsáveis com medo de abraçar o futuro. Tanto tempo perdido, tantos recursos desperdiçados, tanta gente prejudicada.
"Upgrade your user, not your product. Don’t build better cameras - build better photographers." — Kathy Sierra
— Tor Grønsund (@tor) February 8, 2023
Esta frase fixou a minha atenção.
O valor não é gerado pelo produtor, ponto.
O valor é criado pelo cliente ao usar o produto na sua vida e ao experimentar um conjunto de consequências.
Isto está relacionado com a frase "We might know what we are seling, but do we know what the cstomer is buying?"
O produtor pode escolher outro tipo de clientes, ou pode co-criar valor com os clientes actuais ajudando-os a perceber, a apreciar, a aspirar a algo mais. Que clientes têm potencial para fazer esta transição? Que parceiros podem ajudar a desenvolver esta jornada? Que mudanças organizacionais têm de ser feitas para trabalhar este aspecto?
"The frameworks we use to interpret data take many different forms, and I am going to refer to all of them as models....The contribution of the model is to add relationships between data....the purpose of modelling relationships between data is to try to predict how we can take more effective actions in future in support of some overall goal. These are real-world questions informed by real-world data; and when they have answers at all, they have real-world answers. To find those answers, we have to go to Model Land....Within Model Land, the assumptions that you make in your model are literally true. The model is the Model Land reality....Model Land is a wonderful place. In Model Land, because all of our assumptions are true, we can really make progress on understanding our models and how they work. We can make predictions....Model Land is not necessarily a deterministic place where everything is known. In Model Land, there can still be uncertainty about model outcomes....One premise of this book is that unquantifiable uncertainties are important, are ubiquitous, are potentially accessible to us and should figure in our decision-making - but that to make use of them we must understand the limitations of our models, acknowledge their political context, escape from Model Land and construct predictive statements that are about the real world....You cannot avoid Model Land by working only with data. Data, that is, measured quantities, do not speak for themselves: they are given meaning only through the context and framing provided by models. Nor can you avoid Model Land by working with purely conceptual models, theorising about dice rolls or string theories without reference to real data. Good data and good conceptual understanding can, though, help us to escape from Model Land and make our results relevant once more in the real world.Escaping from Model LandThough Model Land is easy to enter, it is not so easy to leave. Having constructed a beautiful, internally consistent model and a set of analysis methods that describe the model in detail, it can be emotionally difficult to acknowledge that the initial assumptions on which the whole thing is built are not literally true."
Trechos retirados de "Escape from Model Land" de Erica Thompson.
Há anos que defendo que as revisões do sistema de gestão da qualidade ou do ambiente devem seguir este formato com 4 momentos:
"of course the most precious, as you just said, is people's time so when we're face to face in a room that is really precious and that's really not a good time to have those, say 20 people, just listening to someone talk right we should have a discussion and then there are live Zoom meet like Zoom meetings but even then again if why are people just like 20 screens or 20 you know videos rather and people are just their lips aren't moving one person is his lips are moving that's not really a good you that could have been a video so he saw in the pyramid like 60 of presentations in the future or now should be you know online and of course you could use or OB makes it easy you could use OBS or Zoom or whatever but make really good presentations 15 minutes 20 minutes whatever and just upload them to this wherever in your company or watch that presentation but then when we come together that is precious
...
people's time I mean the work life is hard enough to never be wasting it in meetings unless we're talking I mean if we're talking if everyone's talking and contributing that's much more interesting than just listening to someone"
E fiquei a pensar, isto é o futuro. Fazer um vídeo com a análise e enviá-lo para os participantes verem antes da reunião. E recordo Alexis de Tocqueville em "De la démocratie en Amérique" sobre o teatro ser o futuro da educação (o povo não gosta de ler, mas gosta de ver)
Mais um artigo interessante artigo no WSJ do passado Sábado, "99% of Big Projects Fail. Lego Is the Fix."
BTW, um artigo e um tema alinhado com a estória do palco-altar que se transforma na hipotética criação de uma nova zona especial de corrida, e não sei que mais. Um artigo alinhado com o relato de Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez sobre o aeroporto de Berlim. Um artigo alinhado com o que Daniel Kahnman escreve em "Thinking, Fast and Slow" sobre a "planning fallacy" e onde cita Flyvbjerg, o académico focado no artigo do WSJ referido acima que apresenta o seu livro publicado recentemente "How Big Things Get Done":
"Spoiler alert! Big things get done very badly.
They cost too much. They take too long. They fall too short of expectations too often. This is what Dr. Flyvbjerg calls the Iron Law of Megaprojects: "over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again."
The Iron Law of Megaprojects might sound familiar to anyone who has survived a home renovation. But when Dr. Flyvbjerg dug into the numbers, the financial overruns and time delays were more common than he expected. And worse. Much worse.
His seminal work on big projects can be distilled into three pitiful numbers:
- 47.9% are delivered on budget.
- 8.5% are delivered on budget and on time.
- 0.5% are delivered on budget, on time and with the projected benefits.
It's brutal enough that 99.5% miss the mark in one way or another."
Lembram-se de Jorge Coelho dizer que o aeroporto da Portela ia ficar lotado? Há quantos anos foi?
"Humans are optimistic by nature and underestimate how long it takes to complete future tasks. It doesn't seem to matter how many times we fall prey to this cognitive bias known as the planning fallacy. We can always ignore our previous mishaps and delude ourselves into believing this time will be different. We're also subject to the power dynamics and competitive forces that complicate reality, since megaprojects don't take place in controlled environments, and they are plagued by politics as much as psychology. Take funding, for example. "How do you get funding?" he said. "By making it look good on paper. You underestimate the cost so it looks cheaper, and you underestimate the schedule so it looks like you can do it faster.""
"The U.S. labor market is proving to be remarkably resilient, which may be both good and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Employers added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%, according to the Labor Department's monthly report.
Recent jobs reports had signaled that hiring was slowing, especially in retail, manufacturing and warehousing as consumers spent less on goods. But the January report showed broad job growth, mostly in services, including leisure and hospitality (128,000), trade and transportation (63,000), healthcare (58,200), temporary services (25,900) and construction (25,000).
Information lost 5,000 jobs, which dovetails with layoffs in the tech industry. But most businesses continue to hire. The average workweek for private workers rose by 0.3 hours and overtime increased by 0.1 hours. As a result, average weekly earnings increased by 1.2% last month."
Associar a A grande reconfiguração e à série Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças (parte V). Entretanto na China, "China's migrant workers return earlier to manufacturing hubs after holiday, but find fewer openings and less pay".
Trecho retirado do artigo "The Incredible Expanding Job Market" no WSJ ontem.
"Acrescentou ainda, que a evolução da produtividade em Portugal "tem sido muito lenta".
"Este é um drama também com que nos confrontamos e é uma questão que suscita inquietação, porque não há nenhuma resposta clara". Referiu ainda que "precisamos da modernização do nosso tecido produtivo" e para isso "o associativismo empresarial pode e deve ter aqui um papel muito importante, porque, por vezes, há falta de escala das empresas portuguesas".
"As pequenas e médias empresas necessitam de se associar para ganhar escala, indo de encontro, ao que a ACIB defende à décadas", afirmou."
Acreditar que o aumento da produtividade que Portugal precisa, o salto de produtividade necessário, será consequência de aumento da escala das empresas existentes é uma ilusão infantil. Basta fazer as contas. Quase ninguém faz contas. Basta fazer uma simulação, basta escolher uma empresa-tipo portuguesa e simular o que seria preciso para que a sua produtividade aumentasse 30/35%. A nível de preço final de venda ou a nível de redução de custos. Não estamos em 1923, estamos em 2023!!!
O que nós precisamos é de "gansos voadores":
Trecho retirado de "Francisco Assis alerta para "problemas sérios" da realidade portuguesa em conferência da ACIB"
"There is abundant evidence that over the last 20 years, American firms have shifted from an innovation mindset to one that focuses more on rent seeking. First and foremost, has been the marked increase in lobbying expenditures, which have more than doubled since 1998, especially in the tech industry. Firms invest money for a reason. They expect a return.It seems like they are getting their money’s worth. Corporate tax rates in the US have steadily decreased and are now among the lowest in the developed world. Occupational licensing, often the result of lobbying by trade associations, has increased fivefold since the 1950s. These restrictions have coincided with a decrease in the establishment of new firms.If your industry is more focused on protecting existing markets than creating new ones, that is one sign that it is vulnerable to disruption....As Bain pointed out a decade ago, the extreme measures taken after the Great Recession led to a superabundance of capital, which paved the way for the highest profit margins in half a century. Now it seems that the era of easy money and easy regulation is ending, making it a near certainty that more frauds will be exposed.We need to learn the telltale signs that an industry is being disrupted. Once technology begins to mature, we can expect consolidation, rent-seeking and regulatory capture to follow. [Recordar a 1ª Lei de Cruz sobre a concorrência em "A minha primeira lei sobre a concorrência?"] After that, it’s just a matter of how much time—and how big the bubble gets—before everything bursts."
Trechos retirados de "4 Signs Your Industry Might Be Disrupted"
