"Distinguishing between Model Land and real world would reduce the sensationalism of some headlines and would also encourage scientific results to clarify more clearly where or whether they are expected to apply to the real world as well.
...
As statistician George Box famously said, 'All models are wrong.' In other words, we will always be able to find ways in which models differ from reality, precisely because they are not reality. We can invalidate, disconfirm or falsify any model by looking for these differences. Because of this, models cannot act as simple hypotheses about the way in which the true system works, to be accepted or rejected.
...
Box's aphorism has a second part: "All models are wrong, but some are useful.' Even if we take away any philosophical or mathematical justification, we can of course still observe that many models make useful predictions, which can be used to inform actions in the real world with positive outcomes. Rather than claiming, however, that this gives them some truth value, it may be more appropriate to make the lesser claim that a model has been consistent with observation or adequate for a given purpose. Within the range of the available data, we can assess the substance of this claim and estimate the likelihood of further data points also being consistent.
...
The extrapolatory question, of the extent to which it will continue to be consistent with observation outside the range of the available data, is entirely reliant on the subjective judgement of the modeller."
Trechos retirados de "Escape from Model Land" de Erica Thompson.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário