Para reflexão

Ontem em conversa com empresário do calçado, tive oportunidade de ouvir um relato sobre a situação do sector que não abona nada de bom para os próximos tempos.

Escreveremos sobre a situação do sector, mas para já só queria referir que a certa altura, para amenizar a conversa, perante as previsões muito negativas que se traduzirão inevitalmente em desemprego, referi que alguns especialistas e ministros ficarão todos contentes com essa perspectiva.

Uns porque isso significará uma subida da produtividade agregada. Lembrem-se da anedota, quanto um fanático do eficientismo chega a CEO age até tornar a empresa uma agência de compra e venda, produção própria reduz a eficiência. Outros porque assim terão a mão de obra que lhes falta ou vai faltar. E referi o exemplo do ministro da Administração Interna que quer contratar 10 mil polícias. 10 mil?!?! Onde os há?!?! Com a emigração, com a demografia, com a actual taxa de desemprego, onde arranjar 10 mil futuros polícias?

Esta manhã apanhei este tweet:

Boa análise de Mário Jekyll Centeno. Já o Ministro, Mário Hyde Centeno, discordaria. pic.twitter.com/t6VAaiCzxn

— MAL (@mlopes) January 17, 2020

"Sorry" or "Thank you"?

"Business leaders worldwide report that consumers’ expectations of service quality are higher than ever. It is therefore not surprising that consumers’ interactions with service providers are often rife with service failures, or negative service encounters that do not live up to their expectations.
...
Meanwhile, service failures engender formidable consequences to businesses, such as considerable financial loss and negative word of mouth (WOM). For example, U.S. companies lost $1.6 trillion in 2016 from customer switching caused by poor service, and 44% of unsatisfied customers vented their frustrations on social channels.
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Given the prevalence and dire consequences of service failures, identifying effective recovery methods that are cost efficient and easy to implement is critical to restore consumer satisfaction and increase retention.
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Specifically, while apology (e.g., “Sorry for the wait”) acknowledges the service failure through the admission of service providers’ fault and accountability, appreciation (e.g., “Thank you for your wait”) acknowledges the service failure by honoring consumers as a benefactor and highlighting their merits and contributions. Drawing from research on consumer self-view, we expect that this shift of focus in the service provider – consumer interaction (from “sorry” to “thank you”) can significantly increase consumer self-esteem. As a result, appreciation should be superior to apology in boosting consumer postrecovery satisfaction.
...
Our findings have substantial implications for service providers regarding how to effectively recover service failures. As an initial step after service failures, service providers need to decide what to say to consumers to redress the failure and restore satisfaction. Despite abundant guidance on whether and when to redress a service failure, researchers have offered little advice on what service providers should say, except for recommending that they apologize for the service failure. Our work suggests that rather than saying “sorry,” service providers should say “thank you,” which is often more effective in enhancing consumer satisfaction. In addition, our studies identify the effectiveness of various symbolic recovery strategies for service failures and thus contribute to better managing business operations.
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Moreover, this research emphasizes that what service providers ultimately say (“thank you” or “sorry”) should be tailored to certain situational (i.e., timing of the recovery, severity of failure, and presence of utilitarian recovery) and individual (e.g., consumers’ trait narcissism) factors. For example, our results suggest that service providers could monitor the service delivery and redress potential failures in advance. Furthermore, we show that when the service failure is severe, utilitarian recovery or material compensation is a prerequisite for the superior effect of appreciation. We also alert service providers to the importance of consumers’ personality traits, especially their level of narcissism. Our research suggests that service providers should use appreciation in their service recovery for consumers with a higher narcissistic tendency (e.g., those who use social networks more, are younger) but should be aware that appreciation is not necessarily better than apology for those low in narcissism."

Excerpts from "When and Why Saying “Thank You” Is Better Than Saying “Sorry” in Redressing Service Failures: The Role of Self-Esteem" de Yanfen You, Xiaojing Yang , Lili Wang, and Xiaoyan Deng, published by Journal of Marketing.

Demografia e clientes-alvo

No Financial Times Asia de ontem apanhei este artigo:

Depois, sorri ao ler no Wall Street Journal de ontem o artigo "Aging Japanese Flock to Gyms— For Hot Baths and Small Talk":

"Exercise buff Yukie Watabe just about had it when she went to her fitness club and found older women using the bench-press machine as an actual bench. The women were chatting about how to pickle vegetables at home—a worthy subject for the health-conscious, no doubt, but not quite the vibe Ms. Watabe was looking for. “I complained a couple of times to the staff there. But it seemed they prioritized” the elderly clientele, said Ms. Watabe, 46 years old. She quit the club and now jogs with her husband. Japan’s retired people are taking over establishments traditionally associated with youth and sculpted bodies. The gym of the future, as seen in a country where nearly 30% of the population is over 65, features tai chi classes, lengthy soaks in hot baths and plenty of socializing among folks who have no business meetings to rush back to.
...
At Renaissance, only 3% of members were over 60 a quarter-century ago. Today, one in three are in that category and, depending on the location and time of the day, the customers are nearly all elderly, said a spokeswoman.
...
Yoshihiko Kato, a 49-year old factory worker in Tokyo, recently quit his fitness club and switched to Anytime Fitness, a Minnesota-based chain with outlets in Japan. It appeals to a younger crowd with 24-hour service and a focus on fitness machines rather than amenities for relaxing.
...
“I’m going to get old too, so I don’t want to complain,” said Mr. Kato. At his previous club, he said, “I was a bit annoyed at how a group of old people were chatting nonstop.” For gym operators, elderly members have helped tone up the bottom line. Japan’s fitness industry in 2018 posted a record $4.4 billion in revenue, and government figures show more than half of that comes from people over 60, who tend to buy pricier full memberships."

E recordei:

• A Natureza tem horror ao desperdício (Setembro de 2017) 

"Quando um ginásio coloca pósteres de moças e moços a caminho de algum concurso de culturismo ou de beleza, está a apostar e a dizer ao mercado quem são os seus alvos e, ao mesmo tempo está a dizer aos seniores: nós não somos para vocês.
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Sabem o quanto gosto de associar biologia e economia. Por isso, vejo este desenvolvimento como: os nutrientes existem (os seniores e os gestores que pensam no futuro do SNS) e as espécies existentes (ginásios) não os consomem. A Natureza tem horror ao desperdício. Por isso, cria novas espécies que aproveitam esses nutrientes (recordar que a evolução natural é fugir de restrições)"

• E quando o mundo muda? (Junho de 2015)

"E interrogo-me porque é que nunca vi um ginásio dedicado explicitamente ao sector sénior?
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Têm dimensão, têm tempo livre, têm poder de compra, têm um trabalho concreto por realizar (recuperar/manter e prolongar qualidade de vida, autonomia, autoestima, ...)"

Outras cativações

Ontem circulava na A29 enquanto ouvia o noticiário das 7 da manhã na Antena 1. A certa altura ouvi o presidente Marcelo em Moçambique a elogiar o superavit orçamental português. Depois, liguei o iPad ao sistema do carro e comecei a ouvir uma série de artigos via Pocket. Um deles foi, "Why Airlines Want to Make You Suffer". A certa altura fixei:

"This fall, JetBlue airline finally threw in the towel. For years, the company was among the last holdouts in the face of an industry trend toward smaller seats, higher fees, and other forms of unpleasantness. JetBlue distinguished itself by providing decent, fee-free service for everyone, an approach that seemed to be working: passengers liked the airline, and it made a consistent profit."

E comecei a pensar... a doença anglo-saxónica é terrível! E recordei o artigo de Terça-feira no Público sobre o descalabro da Boeing, "O dilema moral da trágica liderança na Boeing":

"Mais de 150 páginas de mensagens entregues ao Congresso dos EUA revelam como toda a cadeia de comando tinha fortes preocupações com a contenção de custos. Numa indústria que fabrica produtos complexos, como os aviões actuais de passageiros, uma gestão focada no custo pode ter um preço elevado.

E fiz a ligação com as cativações...

Qual a diferença entre a loucura da Boeing e as cativações na Saúde, na Educação, nos Transportes, na Justiça, ...?

Costa & Centeno = Dennis Muilenburg.
Marcelo talvez venha a ser considerado o David L. Calhoun.

Context, interested parties and risks (part III)

Part I and Part II.

The following excerpt is all about context and risks:

"Many of the world’s problems stem from the false belief that we can accurately predict the future.
...
We do not know what the future will hold. But we must make decisions anyway. So we crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have. But humans are successful because they have adapted to an environment that they understand only imperfectly."

Excerpt from "How to Make Decisions for an Unknowable Future"

"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction"

"although operand resources often contribute to the cocreation of value, without the application of operant resources, such as knowledge, skills, and competences, value cocreation does not occur.
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An important part of the service-centered view is to understand that the nature of resources is contextual. In other words, resources are not, they become. This means that actors’ knowledge and skills—that is, other resources—determine the resourceness of resources.
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Consider, for example, fire: The resourceness of fire only became available for humans once the knowledge and skills needed to control and apply fire for specific purposes were developed. Hence, potential resources become resources when appraised and acted on through integration with other potential resources.
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“Value is cocreated by multiple actors, always including the beneficiary”) and the nature of value outcomes and their determination (Axiom 4, “Value is always uniquely and phenomenologically determined by the beneficiary”)."

Li isto e fiz logo a ponte para a importância da formação dos comerciais sobre como comunicar, ou sobre como fazer emergir a "resourceness" na vida dos clientes.

"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction that describes the function that a substance or idea contributes to achieve a desired end. Hence, to integrate resources, resource-integrating actors must first be able to recognize the resourceness of the potential resources available to him/her. Therefore, the process of affording potential resources their resourceness becomes a prerequisite for resource integration and value cocreation. For this reason, a deeper understanding of  resources is critical for the further development of SD logic and its service ecosystems perspective.
...
resourceness is not an intrinsic characteristic of a resource, but is a socially constructed and institutionalized phenomenon"

Trechos retirados da tese de doutoramento "The evolution of markets – A service ecosystems perspective" de Kaisa Koskela-Huotari.

Dez anos de exportações - uma perspectiva

Olhar assim para os números acerca da evolução das exportações em 10 anos provoca surpresas, positivas e negativas.

Sectores sexy nos media (e isto não tem nada a ver com o calçado) com crescimento mais baixos, e sectores que passam fora do radar dos títulos com desempenhos notáveis.

Ter ou não ter fogo no rabo

Muitas vezes... demasiadas vezes, desanimo com aquilo a que chamo falta de fogo no rabo nas empresas (uma expressão que escrevi pela primeira vez aqui no blogue em Janeirto de 2008, mas que recordo ter começado a usar nas empresas por volta de 2003). Por exemplo, recordar "A falta de fogo no rabo".

Ou porque se formulam iniciativas para implementar estratégias para criar um futuro melhor, ou porque se desenham projectos para ultrapassar problemas operacionais, desafios críticos, desafios importantes, desafios que gritam por atenção e que vão progredindo a velocidade de caracol, e que vão repousando nos congeladores empresariais. Desafios sem atenção da gestão de topo, desafios sem chefe de projecto, sem equipa, sem compromisso de datas, sem especificações de saída, sem recursos, sem ...

Depois, apanha-se algo deste calibre:

I asked Tony Fadell about the iPod timeline for my fast project page. Summary: 😯. pic.twitter.com/mf0CfbAEtB

— Patrick Collison (@patrickc) January 12, 2020

Como é que isto pode medrar neste ambiente?

Curiosidade do dia

Da próxima vez que lerem uma proposta para que o governo de turno assuma os riscos do investimento em projectos com tecnologias imaturas lembrem-se deste exemplo "A $1 Billion Solar Plant Was Obsolete Before It Ever Went Online"

"the power of small gestures"

“In an era of cutthroat competition, deep-seated cynicism, and the digital disruption of everything, who wants to make big bets on the power of small gestures? Not very many organizations, it seems,
...
Work increasingly isn’t, or isn’t only, a matter of producing things, but of supplying your energies, physical and emotional, in the service of others. It isn’t what you make, but how your display of feelings makes others feel.
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I’m convinced that “emotional labor” will become a more important job of companies that win big in the future, and that’s a phenomenon that makes me smile.
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Will you follow dogma, or will you be original?”; “Will you wilt under criticism, or will you follow your convictions?”; “Will you play it safe, or will you be a little bit swashbuckling?
...
Will you be clever at the expense of others, or will you be kind?”

Trechos retirados de “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways” de  William C. Taylor.

Context, interested parties and risks (part II)

Part I.

ISO 9001:2015 clause 4.1 is about understanding the context of an organization.

What external and internal issues are relevant to the organization’s purpose and strategic direction?  What external and internal issues can affect, either positively or negatively, the organization’s ability to achieve the intended results of its quality management system (QMS).

We saw in Part I that intended results of a QMS is something that is a function of who are chosen as the relevant interested parties. So, we cannot expect to determine internal and external issues correctly without having in mind who are relevant interested parties and what are their relevant needs and expectations.

One of these mornings I read:

"Le scénario se répète pour la quatrième année consécutive. Les défaillances d'entreprises vont continuer d'augmenter en 2020 à l'échelle mon-diale
...
Un zoom géographique montre une prédominance de l'Asie dans les faillites, avec la Chine en première ligne
...
Si la France s'en sort mieux que ses voisins européens, 2020 devrait marquer un tournant. C'est la première année depuis 2016 que les défaillances ne baissent pas. Elles devraient stagner, contre une hausse de 3 % en Allemagne et au Royaume-Uni, de 4 % en Italie et de 5 % en Espagne."

And at another one I read:

German exports drop adds to country’s gloomy prospects https://t.co/2Ld8Rr3Mt1

— Financial Times (@FT) January 9, 2020

And then I thought of a number of companies I work or worked with that depend heavily on sales to the German market.

What have I mentally done?

I selected an external event that can't be controlled by and organization and related it to an internal issue a particular organization:

Because of the strategic choices of the organization - bet on export to demanding German customers - one can say that both the external event and the internal issue have a negative connotation.

What will probably happen when we join the external event with that internal vulnerability? We determine a negative risk!

That risk will affect needs and expectations of a relevant interested party: the capital owners of the organization

One can also imagine internal events that can't be controlled by and organization:

Resignation of a critical worker will undermine our ability to respond to development requests, which will undermine our ability to capitalize on a boom in demand for co-created solutions.

In this case we have a positive external trend in motion that clashes with an internal negative event that the organization's top management cannot control.

The product of that clash is another risk - undermining of our ability to capitalize on a boom in demand for co-created solutions.

That risk will affect needs and expectations of different relevant interested parties: the capital owners of the organization and the potential customers searching for competent suppliers of co-created solutions.

These two examples illustrate the exercise I try to do with organizations to determine context-based risks and opportunities, using interested parties needs and expectations as a factor in assessing the importance of risk or opportunity.

What sources do I bring to the table to determine external issues? Normally, I use Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental analysis (PESTLE) to trigger the brainstorming of external issues.

Those external issues start as neutral issues. Thn they are later analyzed under the light of strategic orientation. Then they can gain a positive or negative connotation. If the connotation is positive I call them Opportunities, if it is negative I call them Threats.

When determining internal issues I ask people things like:

• What issues keep appearing in your internal meetings and reports?
• What issues keep appearing about overall performance of the organization, persons, resources, governance, ...?

Those internal issues start as neutral issues. They are later analyzed in the light of strategic orientation. Then they can gain a positive or negative connotation. If the connotation is positive I call them Strengths, if it is negative I call them Weaknesses.

So, this way we developed the classic SWOT matrix. But in the examples above what we have done was about giving a dynamic twist to the SWOT matrix, something that some call a TOWS matrix:

Each combination is a possible risk or opportunity.

Mongo é o regresso à diversidade, à variedade.

O século XX e Metropolis.
O século XX e Magnitogorsk.
O século XX e Levittown.
O século XX e o grande centrão, o plancton.

Mongo é o oposto, Mongo é o regresso à diversidade, à variedade.

Este artigo é uma metáfora acerca desse regresso:

"According to researcher Ana Mikadze-Chikvaidze, Georgia may be the homeland of cheese ... archaeological evidence hinting that Georgians thousands of years ago may have been the first-known humans to make cheese. Over time, different regions of Georgia developed distinct techniques resulting in a veritable tapestry of cheese varieties.
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Yet, many Georgians today have little knowledge of this history or the country’s unique cheeses due to 70 years spent under an oppressive Soviet-planned economy that limited which cheeses could be produced for general consumption and therefore forced artisanal cheesemaking underground.
...
Under the Soviet system between 1921 and 1991, economic planners wanted to create large quantities of Georgian cheese quickly to help feed the people of the USSR. Small-scale, often aged varietals, which took considerable time and effort to produce, didn’t fit these plans, and instead, only four types of simpler Georgian cheeses were made in bulk: imeruli, sulguni, karkhunli (which literally translates to “factory cheese”) and guda (completely unrelated to Dutch gouda).
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The artisanal cheeses were forced underground likely because creating goods outside the Soviet system was frowned upon and many cheesemakers were afraid of being punished for it. And after seven decades in a system where only four types of cheese were readily available, most Georgians today are completely unaware that the country is home to dozens of other cheeses."

Trechos retirados de "The woman saving Georgia's lost cheeses"

Motivação e dinheiro

"The science behind work satisfaction.
Consider a study by Behavioral Economist Dan Ariely (and Lemonade’s Chief Behavioral Officer), where he sent factory workers one of three emails: The first promised workers a free pizza if they get all of their work done, the second promised a rare compliment from their boss, and the last – a cash bonus.
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Which did the best job of motivating employees to get their work done?
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If you thought the cash bonus, you thought wrong. The pizza and thank you note were the strongest motivators.
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While monetary incentives are usually attributed to getting workers’ feet in the door in the first place, cash hardly contributes to an employee’s engagement at work:
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Creating a positive, caring workforce makes for more engaged team members, meaningful workplace relationships, and higher profits for organizations.
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Companies should set aside cash bonuses, and invest in practices that make employees feel cared for. And a pizza party every once in a while wouldn’t hurt either."

Não é nada incomum a liderança das empresas, à medida que elas crescem, estar cega quanto à falta de motivação dos trabalhadores.

Trechos retirados de "The Case for a Caring Work Culture"

O contexto que nos rodeia

Há dias vi uma peça criada pela RTP sobre as previsões para a economia portuguesa em 2020. Na altura fiquei embasbacado ao ver que falavam num crescimento de 2% do PIB. O orçamento de estado para 2020 prevê 1,9%.

"Le scénario se répète pour la quatrième année consécutive. Les défaillances d'en-treprises vont continuer d'augmenter en 2020 à l'échelle mon-diale, prévoit le leader de l'assurance-crédit Euler Flermes dans son baromètre annuel publié jeudi. Certes à un rythme moins soutenu - la hausse anticipée est de 6 %, après 9 % l'an dernier -, mais plus global. Sur les 44 pays couverts par l'étude - qui représentent 87 % du PEB mondial - quatre sur cinq vont subir une degradation. La raison principale tient « au ralentissement de la croissance mondiale, déjà observé en 2019 et l'effet de la guerre commerciale », explique Maxime Lemerle, directeur de la recherche sectorielle. « Les entreprises sont confrontées à une baisse de la demande et à plus de compétition qui se ressent sur leurs marges, en particulier dans les secteurs industriels », poursuit-il.
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Un zoom géographique montre une prédominance de l'Asie dans les faillites, avec la Chine en première ligne
...
Si la France s'en sort mieux que ses voisins européens, 2020 devrait marquer un tournant. C'est la première année depuis 2016 que les défaillances ne baissent pas. Elles devraient stagner, contre une hausse de 3 % en Allemagne et au Royaume-Uni, de 4 % en Italie et de 5 % en Espagne."

Esta semana tive oportunidade de ver em primeira mão o impacte da travagem alemã. Empresas portuguesas sem encomendas, aumento tremendo dos prazos de recebimento entre fornecedores e subcontratados portugueses.

Estar atento ao contexto (oportunidades e ameaças) para não contar com o ovo no cú da galinha.

Trechos retirados de "Les défaillances d'entreprises dans le monde vont continuer à se multiplier en 2020" publicado no Le Figaro de ontem.

Exportações YTD - tendências

Olhando para a minha paleta do acumulado das exportações do ano passado até Novembro:

• Mobiliário a crescer
• Metalomecânica continua recuperar
• Aeronaves e Óptica continuam a crescer a taxas muito, muito altas
• Agricultura continua a crescer
• Têxtil e calçado continuam com a evolução negativa. Calçado reforçou a tendência negativa face à 1 ano
• Exportações de produtos farmacêuticos a evoluir a bom ritmo
• Impressionante o andamento dos automóveis. Anos e anos a crescer a ritmos alucinantes.

O paradoxo dos peritos

“The more credentials somebody has, the more assumptions they make, the less they test them, the more likely they are to fail”

Um tema clássico neste blogue o paradoxo dos peritos.

“Expertise is powerful—until it gets in the way of innovation. One of the sobering lessons of the great transformations in business, leadership, and society in the last few decades is that the people and organizations with the most experience, knowledge, and resources in a particular field are often the last ones to see and seize opportunities for something dramatically new.
...
All too often, what we know limits what we can imagine.
...
Too many companies and leaders, often the best companies and the most successful leaders, struggle with what she calls the “paradox of expertise”—the frustrating reality that the more deeply immersed you are in a market, a product category, or a technology, the harder it becomes to open your mind to new business models that may reshape that market or promising ways to leapfrog that technology. Past results may not be the enemy of subsequent breakthroughs, but they can constrain the capacity to grasp the future.
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“When it comes to innovation,” she argues, “the same hard-won experience, best practices, and processes that are the cornerstones of an organization’s success may be more like millstones that threaten to sink it. Said another way, the weight of what we know, especially what we collectively ‘know,’ kills innovation. . . . Why can knowledge and experience be so lethal to innovation? Because when we become expert, we often trade our ‘what if’ flights of fancy for the grounded reality of ‘what is.’” ”

Recordo sempre:

• O suíço que entrou no mundo do azeite;
• Os gurus que influenciam (um festival de 28 cromos);
• Zapatero; e 
• Gary Klein

"nós não vemos através dos nossos olhos mas através das nossas experiências", e "as nossas experiências produzem modelos mentais", modelos mentais que nos ajudam a perceber e a actuar sobre a realidade. A experiência é uma vantagem até... deixar de ser.
.
E quando é que a experiência deixa de ser uma vantagem?
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Quando a realidade muda!"

Trechos retirados de “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways” de  William C. Taylor.

Azeite e Trás-Os-Montes

Este blogue acompanha o tema do azeite há alguns anos. Apresento no fim uma lista não exaustiva de postais sobre a produção e comercialização de azeite.

No ano passado comecei a ter consciência plena dos impactes ambientais da produção e colheita no olival superintensivo alentejano. Assim, em Junho de 2019, sem planear, simplesmente aconteceu o que relato em "E sem intenção, e sem querer, apareceu na minha mente a decisão de pôr de lado o azeite alentejano".

No Sábado passado fui às compras ao mesmo sítio, ao mesmo corredor, onde tinha tido dificuldade de encontrar um azeite expressamente transmontano, seis meses antes (situação que descrevo na hiperligação anterior), e tive uma forte surpresa. No dia seguinte escrevi no Twitter:

Entretanto, na passada terça-feira fui a um supermercado da rede Coviran, especialista em verduras, perto de minha casa, e não resisti a trazer para experimentar, apesar da garrafa de plástico:

Entretanto, ontem ao final da tarde tive oportunidade de ler "Do market prices correspond with consumer demands? Combining market valuation and consumer utility for extra virgin olive oil quality attributes in a traditional producing country" de Petjon Ballco e Azucena Gracia, publicado por Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services.

"At the beginning of the 21st century, the law of demand in food production supplanted the law of supply. [Moi ici: Um tema interessante. O mundo muda quando a oferta é maior do que a procura, aquilo a que desde 2010 chamo "bolha azeiteira", nessa altura há que fugir da ideia de que se vende uma commodity] Agricultural organisations and the agri-food industry must adapt to consumers’ highly diversified expectations. In addition, consumers expect to be fully informed about the products they purchase. They demand healthy products that taste good and take into consideration social, ethical and environmental issues in terms of production practices and traditional production methods. Under this framework, the agro-food sector must continually seek strategic orientations to differentiate products, not only in the sense of increasing production but rather towards diversifying food supply by promoting attributes that are valued by consumers. Olive oil is an example of a product where greater differentiation has been associated with increased production and consumption worldwide.
...
preferences between consumers from the traditionally producing countries and those from the emerging markets have significantly changed. While in non-producing countries the consumption of olive oil has increased enormously from low levels, Mediterranean countries, where consumption was relatively high, are now facing a shift towards the consumption of higher quality olive oils and, more specifically, extra virgin olive oils (EVOOs). [Moi ici: O artigo cita 21 artigos publicados nos últimos 5 anos sobre preferências de consumo de azeite]
...
the results from the marginal WTP estimates indicated that, on average, consumers were willing to pay an additional price premium of 2.13€/L for an EVOO that carried the PDO certification compared to one without this indication. In the same way, participants were willing to pay an additional premium of 1.51€/L for an EVOO that was produced in the county, and 1.27€/L for an EVOO produced in the region relative to an EVOO from the rest of Spain. [Moi ici: O estudo foi feito em Saragoça]
...
The positive premium that the indication of olive variety had on price provides evidence that the EVOO sector has indeed increased in differentiation. Consumers’ knowledge has also increased, because depending on the olive variety (Arbequina, Picual, Hojiblanca) consumers can form expectations regarding the taste of the EVOO (i.e., fruity, pungent, etc.). This result is in line with Cabrera et al. (2015) who illustrated the importance given to the olive variety in Spain. In terms of container materials, results show that a plastic container was valued negatively in comparison to a glass container, which received a premium price.
...
Although there were relatively few organic olive oils in the Spanish market, results showed that this certification was an important quality cue that positively affected EVOO market prices.
...
Unexpectedly, the European PDO quality certification did not affect the market prices of EVOOs in Spain. This result is in line with previous research by Carbone et al. (2018) in Italy who found negative effects on price for olive oils with PDO, and Cabrera et al., 2015 in Spain who found no influence on price for EVOOs with PDO. Contrary to the PDO quality certification, the presence of production origin on the label had a positive influence on EVOO prices. As extensively shown by other authors, the origin of production is one of the most important aspects for many consumers of EVOOs
...
while we maintain that PDO certification is an important attribute that helps consumers differentiate the quality of an EVOO, at a regional level where the local producers are well known, this attribute does not add any value to the prices of EVOOs in the market. This result is in line with Cabrera et al. (2015) for EVOO in Spain, who showed that the local origin of production label had positive effects on prices in comparison to PDO certification which did not affect the price. In addition, this result was also highlighted by Marcoz et al. (2016), who suggested that PDO quality certification has higher value the further the consumer is from the area of production.
...
Consumer behavior for a typical product, such as an EVOO that is consumed on a regular basis, appears to be stable but, in reality, faces constant changes in differentiation. The most influential attributes in terms of utility and WTP estimates found were the origin of production (i.e., county and region) for EVOOs, and PDO quality certification. In the market, the attributes that influenced EVOO prices were labels that indicate the olive variety, organic certification, origin of production, sold in glass containers and in establishments with a high variety of leading brands.
...
those producers who want to gain competitive advantages, should not be satisfied by just offering products to the market, but should strive to create value for each customer specifically.The more distinctive and inimitable a product is, the more likely the company is to gain loyal customers. Furthermore, consumer awareness about olive variety and clear identification of production origin should encourage producers to develop new products based on single olive varieties characterized by different sensory attributes."

Interessante a repetida referência a: "production methods; production processes; sustainability; e organic production"

• O toque anti-Midas (Fevereiro de 2008) (sobre a aposta em nichos - sublinho "o azeite de denominação de origem protegida (DOP) da Beira Interior pode ser vendido a um preço 150 por cento superior ao de um azeite extra virgem corrente e, consciente desse valor acrescentado, admite ser possível ir mais longe, apostando num DOP monovarietal, apenas recorrendo à azeitona galega.")
• Mentes livres de mapas cognitivos castradores (Março de 2009) (sobre a aposta em nichos - sublinho "uma produção que apostasse no acompanhamento permanente do olival, que respeitasse árvores centenárias e que conseguisse competir com a concorrência dos grandes azeites italianos. Este azeite competiu e ganhou. O Risca Grande Virgem Extra venceu o primeiro prémio do Concurso de Azeites Biológicos da BIOFACH 2009 em Nuremberga, na Alemanha.”")
• Mais tarde ou mais cedo... (Maio de 2010) (sobre a previsão de uma futura bolha azeiteira e a aposta em nichos)
• Lições de uma ida às compras (Dezembro de 2010) (de onde sublinho "Os azeites têm de começar a ser tratados como os vinhos, tal é a variedade e diversidade."")
• Mais uma previsão acertada (Dezembro de 2010) (primeira notícia sobre a bolha azeiteira) (segunda, de Janeiro de 2011, aqui)
• As bolhas azeiteiras como mais uma manifestação do socialismo na economia (Março de 2011) (socialismo ou crony capitalismo, são irmãos gémeos. Apoia-se a plantação de oliveiras, a produção explode... há que pedir a Bruxelas que encareça o azeite)
• Azeite...Azeite... (Julho de 2011)
• Seguir o caminho menos percorrido!!! (Outubro de 2011) (a primeira reacção ao azeite de produção superintensiva "Não vendam azeite!!! Vendam tradição, vendam localização, vendam o contrário, o antónimo, o oposto de "produção superintensiva de azeite", vendam sabor, vendam escassez, vendam prazer, acarinhem uma marca que distinga!")
• Outra previsão acertada (Novembro de 2011) (perante uma bolha azeiteira... corrijo. Perante qualquer bolha qual é a primeira reacção numa sociedade socialista/cronysta? Criar barreiras burocráticas para eliminar os mais fracos)
• Bolha azeiteira em força, em perspectiva? (Setembro de 2012)
• Um bom exemplo (Julho de 2014) (os anos da troika foram anos que levaram à aposta na exportação)
• A prioridade (Julho de 2016)
• Quem vê (Fevereiro de 2017)
• Muito para aprender (parte III) (Junho de 2017)
• "E sem intenção, e sem querer, apareceu na minha mente a decisão de pôr de lado o azeite alentejano" (Junho de 2019)
• Azeite, estratégia e valor (Julho de 2019)
• Contexto, estratégia e bolha azeiteira (Dezembro de 2019)

ISO 9001 - Video V - A useful quality policy and objectives, not mumbo-jumbo (part II)

Part I.

I recalled the template I use for writing an organization's quality policy when reading this excerpt:

“This is not about what we do, it’s about who we are,” ... “When you know who you are, then all of the decisions you have to make become a lot easier. When decisions are easier to make, things get better faster. Nothing clarifies like clarity.”(1)

This another one too:

“the more time I spend with market-making innovators and high-performing companies, the more I appreciate that leaders also have to “talk the walk.” They must be able to explain, in language that is unique to their field and compelling to their colleagues and customers, why what they do matters and how they expect to win”(1)

BTW, about that " I appreciate that leaders ... explain, in language that is unique to their field and compelling to their colleagues and customers, why what they do matters and how they expect to win" consider:

"Leaders who connect employees with end users motivate higher performance, measured in terms of revenue as well as supervisors’ ratings. Research shows that when leaders are the sole source of inspiring messages, employees often question whether the messages are true. End users, in contrast, are seen as credible sources who can deliver convincing testimonials of their experiences with a company’s offerings.
.
Customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services motivate employees by serving as tangible proof of the impact of their work, expressing appreciation for their contributions, and eliciting empathy, which helps employees develop a deeper understanding of customers’ needs.
.
Leaders can “outsource inspiration” to end users (both past and present) by collecting their stories, inviting them to the organization, introducing them to employees, and recognizing employees who make a difference in customers’ lives.
...
A growing body of research shows that end users—customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services—are surprisingly effective in motivating people to work harder, smarter, and more productively."(2)

Excerpts from “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways”(1) from  William C. Taylor and "How Customers Can Rally Your Troops"(2)

O eterno retorno

A evolução do retalho é um tema recorrente neste blogue há vários anos.

Todos estamos cientes do crescimento das vendas online e do declinio das vendas no retalho físico. Escrevo isto e recordo imagens de lojas na antiga Nacional Nº 1 em São João da Madeira, estávamos em 2011 e as lojas tinham parado em 1988(?). Recordo também imagens no programa "País, País" na terça-feira de Carnaval de 2005, de lojas em Vila Real a protestar contra a abertura de um centro comercial. As imagens retratavam lojas paradas em 1973(?).

Ontem, sem procurar, vieram ter comigo os seguintes artigos:

• The Year Ahead: Neighbourhood Stores Return
• In 2020, retail is moving back to Main Street

"Going where people already are is ultimately better for brands, because it means that foot traffic is not entirely dependent on them. Their storefronts will exist in an ecosystem along with restaurants, workout studios, and cultural spots, and someone who makes a trip out to visit any one of these venues will pass by, and perhaps pop into, adjacent ones."

"Given that many people still like to touch, feel and try fashion items before they buy, the industry is well placed to benefit from this theme. We expect fashion retailers to ramp up their presence in neighbourhoods and new districts beyond traditional commercial zones, with stores that reflect the local community and focus on service and experience." 

O eterno retorno...

Context, interested parties and risks

I have a commitment to publish a video about context, interested parties and risks, according to ISO 9001:2015, during this month. So, I'm starting to gather raw material to that video.

Let us start with ISO 9000:2015 risk definition.

risk = effect of uncertainty

It's important to higlight the word "uncertainty". Something that we cannot control, something that it is outside of our level of control.

And an effect is a deviation from the expected — positive or negative.

So, one can say that risk is a deviation from the expected (positive or negative) resulting from a trigger event that we cannot control. BTW, the ability to control the trigger event is what separates a positive risk from an improvement opportunity.

What are we talking about when we talk about "the expected"?
Let us keep the conversation here at a strategic level.

Expected results are the results we want the organization as a whole to achieve.

Who expects these results?

The capital owners. 

So, the capital owners are an interested party of this organization. 

We started with expected results and connected those expected results to an interested party. Normally, things go in the opposite direction. Because we have an interested party with should work for some expected results.

Let us consider another example. 

Making money in a sustainable way has a funny particularity, we cannot elect that objective as a first order objective, we should consider that kind of objectives as an indirect consequence of other objectives (something that I learned to call obliquity)

To get a profit an organization must be able to sell a service to a set of target customers at a price above the cost. Why would a set of target customers decide to buy the service to a particular supplier?

Let us consider those target customers as another interested party for this organization.

So, we have here another set of expected results.

A risk would be a consequence, an impact that could afect negatively the ability of an organization to meet an expected result.

An opportunity would be a consequence, an impact that could afect positively the ability of an organization to meet an expected result.

When we think about expected results we can immediately realize that although we work for expected results, because the outside world and the organization are complex entities we can get undesired results that affect our ability to serve interested parties.

We started this text with the risk definition and keep coming to interested parties. Why are interested parties so relevant for managing risks and opportunities?

Interest parties are relevant at two levels.

Level 1 - relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties determine expected and undesired results.

Events that we can't control can act together to make our organization get an undesired result (no-compliance with legal requirements)

Level 2 - relevant needs and expectations of relevant interested parties can be used as a basis for determining the importance of each risk and opportunity.

This figure has the three topics that I want to include in the video:

Clause 4.1 (context) gives us a potential trigger event (internal ou external) that reacts with another Clause 4.1 (context) issue, an internal strength or vulnerability. The consequence of that reaction (risk - Clause 6.1) is evaluated against the requirements of interested parties (Clause 4.2).

 If the consequences are significant an action plan should be developed in order to minimize the risk or take advantage of the opportunity.

What is becoming more and more clear to me is the relevance of the expectations and needs of the interested parties in determining the risks and opportunities and their relevance.

Next topic will be focused on the events (Clause 4.1)