O Portugal que conhecemos com as suas tradições e cultura vai mudar muito, mesmo muito:
Estão a imaginar os activos, portugueses ou imigrantes, a suportar os inactivos nesta quantidade?
Gráficos retirados de Boletim Económico do Banco de Portugal (Junho de 2023)
Há anos escrevi sobre o caso da VW e a Deutsche Post, Mongo a bater à porta. Tão bom!!!
Recordei logo ao ler "Six Mindsets to Help You Change the World" de John Mullins e publico no número de Outono da Rotman Magazine:
"MINDSET 1: Yes, We Can!
When a customer asks an entrepreneur to do something that they are not currently doing for them, the answer isn't, Sorry, we don't offer that'; instead they say, "'Yes, we can!' Then they figure out how to deliver on the promise.
Big companies almost never do this. Broadly speaking, leaders are advised to 'stick to their knitting': They are supposed to know what their organization's core competencies are, nurture them and do what they can to make them more robust. If a customer asks for something outside the box, they say, 'No, I'm sorry, we don't offer that.'
...
MINDSET 2: Problem-First, Not Product-First Logic
Big companies are obsessed with their products, to a fault in some cases. Take for example, the laundry detergent category. My family and I have I used Tide detergent for many years, and every time a new brand manager comes along, they tweak the product: They might add green speckles to the powder, change the scent slightly or add more water so the liquid soap pours easier. Does any of this count as innovation? I don't think so. Entrepreneurs like Jonathan Thorne, in contrast, start with a customer problem. Thorne, the founder of Silverglide Surgical Technologies, had developed a technology that stopped the surgical instruments used in medical procedures from sticking to human tissue. He asked himself, 'What are the most common sticky-tissue problems?'
...
MINDSET 3: Think Narrowly, Not Broadly, About Your Markets
Big-company wisdom is straightforward: 'If we're going to trydoing something new, it has to be for a big market.' Any new product or service has to be big enough to 'move the needle' for the company. Otherwise, why bother? The best entrepreneurs, on the other hand, don't worry about how big the target market is at the outset. They realize that if they build a foundation in a narrow market from which they can learn, good things will happen. They start out thinking narrowly, not broadly. After all, it's far easier to solve the problems of a narrowly defined target market than to make one product that attempts to serve all."
"More and more leaders see AI as necessary for growth in the current macroeconomic environment, even as new developments make some job categories obsolete. In nearly every industry, AI will serve as a force multiplier for growth, bringing efficiencies, better tracking, business intelligence and assistance with decision-making. As training costs decline, more applications will be built. Spending on AI systems and hardware is likely to explode this decade, creating significant enterprise value....HOW TO PREPARE: We recommend that chief strategy officers in every field develop a solid understanding of AI to engage more closely with the C-suite to develop a cohesive point of view on digitalization, augmentation and automation-and develop strategic plans. Importantly, businesses should keep abreast of emerging regulations that could restrict the use of consumer data, algorithms or generative AI systems. Risk models should be developed to determine plausible near-futures, so that leaders can adjust their strategies accordingly."
"Em contraste, houve um conjunto de profissões nas quais o decréscimo das ofertas de emprego superou a fasquia dos 90% trabalhadores manuais de artigos têxteis, couro e materiais similares, trabalhadores de vidro de ótica, salineiros, fogueteiros, revestidores manuais e escolhedores, trabalhadores qualificados da floresta e similares, técnicos e assistentes de veterinários, operadores de máquinas para o fabrico de produtos têxteis, de pele com pelo e couro.O setor do couro, vestuário e têxtil tem sido dos mais afetados pelo desemprego, o que é explicado pela quebra das encomendas motivada pela conjuntura internacional."
Ontem, no mesmo ECO li "Novo contrato coletivo no setor do calçado aumenta salários em 4,2%".
Acrescento os dados sobre o crescimento homólogo do desemprego em Julho, publicados pelo IEFP, e que referem um crescimento superior a 15% no sector "Indústria do couro e dos produtos do couro".
Num momento de retracção da procura, de encerramento de empresas, aumenta-se o salário. Se é para desbastar o sector e matar as empresas menos produtivas, é uma opção política. Se é para depois aplicar a ajuda do Chapeleiro Louco... mal!!!
Recordar Acham isto normal? Ou a inconsistência estratégica! Ou jogar bilhador como um amador!
Na semana passada, talvez na quinta-feira, já não tenho a certeza, o chatGPT esteve inoperacional. Por curiosidade fui ver se aparecia nas tendências do Twitter em português... e nada.
Sintomático...
Sempre que penso em AI penso nas palavras de Kasparov:
"Algures li uma afirmação de Kasparov que dizia que um grande mestre perdia sempre contra um supercomputador, mas que um jogador mediano com um computador mediano, juntos batiam sempre o supercomputador."
Na revista Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know" encontro:
"Curt Nickisch: In late 2022, people started talking about how ChatGPT was poised to change work as we know it. What is so special about this technology?
Ethan Mollick: ChatGPT-3, which is the base generation of this technology, was around for about a year, and it was okay. It worked at or near the level of a D-minus student. But we have since crossed a threshold of ability that has made ChatGPT incredibly useful. It can now achieve the output of a B-minus student. And if you use a more advanced model like the one on Microsoft's Bing search engine, you can achieve the level of an A-minus student. This represents radical progress in a very short period of time.
...
CN: What kind of opportunities does this open up for companies?
EM: There is no rulebook or manual to work from, so you have to explore for opportunities yourself. As indicated, this AI is really good at writing computer code and common documents like memos or reports. If you need to write a letter of recommendation or a performance review, it will do an amazing job. But when you start to incorporate the Bing version or some of the other new AIs coming our way, you'll be able to get it to do complex, multi-layered tasks. For example, you'll be able to say, 'Look up everything about the precision agriculture industry and give me a table showing the growth rates for each company along with their strengths and weaknesses, using the perspective of Michael Porter's Five Forces Model.' This type of request could save someone up to 12 hours of work and provide a document that they can build on - because as good as it is, you do still have to check Al's work."
A verdade é que entre Maio e Agosto últimos estive envolvido num projecto usando AI e foi impressionante o ganho em produtividade.
E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI?
Ainda na mesma Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know":
"SP: Gillian, Do you think this technological moment is different from previous ones?GH: I do. What is critical here is the speed with which AI transforms entire markets. For example, in the legal domain, I've seen how, in just a few minutes, tools like ChatGPT can do what it would usually take a week for a lawyer to do. That is going to be very disruptive, and the potential scale is massive. Because it's a general purpose technology, it can and will show up everywhere."
Ainda na mesma Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know":
"You can't call up a consulting company and ask them how to implement ChatGPT across your company, like you would with Salesforce or some other system application. Over time, there will be more organizational applications, but so far, the main story is at the individual level. And people are using it. I guarantee you, there are secret users of ChatGPT in every organization who have cut their workload by two thirds and don't want to tell anyone about it. I'm hearing examples all the time. It's easy to get started; you just need to spend an hour or two learning how it works and what it's good and bad at.
I've talked to tons of people who are big fans. First of all, virtually everyone in programming is using it to help with coding. They've switched over from Stack Exchange to ChatGPT. But increasingly I'm talking to managers who have just automated tasks like performance reviews, grant applications or regulatory compliance. This is a general-purpose technology, as its name suggests."
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty: not knowing what comes next.
-Ursula K. Le Guin, The Left Hand of Darkness
Human beings are not born once and for all on the day their mothers give birth to them, but that life obliges them over and over again to give birth to themselves.
- Gabriel García Márquez, Love in the Time of Cholera
The need for certainty is the greatest disease the mind faces.
-Robert Greene, Mastery"
Pena que cada vez mais menos empresários saibam lidar com a incerteza. Julgo que Schumpeter terá escrito que sem incerteza, sem o risco a ela associado não há razão para haver lucro.
"A Confederação Empresarial de Portugal (CIP) apelou esta segunda-feira ao Governo para que acompanhe a paragem de produção de nove semanas da Autoeuropa e adote as soluções necessárias para proteger a empresa e a economia da região de Setúbal."A CIP apela ao Governo para que acompanhe esta situação [na Autoeuropa] de perto, procurando as soluções que melhor protejam a empresa e toda a atividade económica na região de Setúbal", refere um comunicado divulgado esta segunda-feira pela confederação empresarial."
País de bebés, incapazes de sobreviver numa economia moderna sem o apoio pedo-mafioso do governo de turno.
Triste país condenado a ter uma classe empresarial medrosa e sempre dependente do poder para a proteger da vida real.
O amigo @pauloperes chamou-me a atenção para um artigo recente de Roger Martin que me tinha escapado, "Balanced Scorecard & Playing to Win".
O artigo faz-me pensar em vários temas. Vamos ao primeiro:
"On this front, Balanced Scorecard has features that I like. It drives away from employing a singular metric, which protects against surrogation. And it is reflective of the reality that no organization can be usefully guided by a singular measure.
My advice is to make the measures at least partially conflictual because that will drive you to be cleverer in your choices."
Procuro que esta abordagem seja seguida quando se definem os indicadores de desempenho de um processo. Por exemplo, um processo chamado "Desenvolver Amostra".
Qual a finalidade do processo?
Então, qual a finalidade do processo?
Então, qual a finalidade do processo?
Não conheço a marca, escrevo só com base na minha experiência.
"Madison Reed has just announced its expansion into WalmartWMT stores nationwide. "My belief is that great quality prestige salon products should be made available to everyone, and certainly, given the magnitude of the shopper traffic that Walmart receives, they are a key U.S. retailer," said Amy Errett, CEO and founder of Madison Reed. In an interview, she further explained how the partnership with Walmart will allow greater access to high-quality hair care products with Smart 8-Free and Leaping Bunny Certified formulas for customers wherever and whenever they need it."
Trecho retirado de "Madison Reed, America's Best Loved Hair Color Brand, Expands Into Walmart"
Como conciliar "America's Best Loved" e "great quality prestige" com prateleiras "everyday low-price"?
Recordar a Raporal em A prova do tempo... tudo por causa de um Pingo Doce.
O parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras anda a publicar uns postais sobre a Finlândia. Fiquei curioso.
Parte I, parte II e parte III e parte IV.
"The door to new ways of thinking does not open easily, and it is the tension in the room that actually becomes the key. The tension points to where the resistance or doubt resides. Discussing the tension makes insight and resolution possible. If we can see the tension as energy and go toward it, big insights will follow. If we manage around it, we risk losing the day"
Como não recordar Nassim Taleb e o seu "stressors are information" sem stress ... não se muda.
Trecho retirado de "Flawless consulting".
""Faith comes from what is heard".
...
In other words, in faith the word takes precedence over the thought, a precedence that differentiates it structurally from the architecture of philosophy. In philosophy the thought precedes the word; it is after all a product of the reflection that one then tries to put into words; the words always remain secondary to the thought and thus in the last resort can always be replaced by other words. Faith, on the other hand, comes to man from outside, and this very fact is fundamental to it. It is-let me repeat-not something thought up by myself; it is something said to me, which hits me as something that has not been thought out and could not be thought out and lays an obligation on me.
...
Faith cannot and should not be a mere product of reflection. The idea that faith really ought to arise through our thinking it up for ourselves and finding it in the process of a purely private search for truth is basically the expression of a definite ideal, an attitude of mind that fails to recognize the intrinsic quality of belief, which consists precisely in being the reception of what cannot be thought out-responsible reception, it is true, in which what is heard never becomes entirely my own property, and the lead held by what is received can never be completely wiped out, but in which the goal must be to make what is received more and more my own, by handing myself over to it as the greater.
...
Philosophy is by its nature the work of the solitary individual, who ponders as an individual on truth. A thought, what has been thought out, is something that at any rate seems to belong to me myself, since it comes from me, although no one's thinking is self-supporting; consciously or unconsciously it is intertwined with many other strands. The place where a thought is perfected is the interior of the mind; thus at first it remains confined to me and has an individualistic structure. It only becomes communicable later, when it is put into words, which usually make it only approximately comprehensible to others. In contrast to this the primary factor for belief is, as we have seen, the proclaimed word. While a thought is interior, purely intellectual, the word represents the element that unites us with others. It is the way in which intellectual communication takes place, the form in which the mind is, as it were, human, that is, corporeal and social."
Joseph Ratzinger, 1969
Ontem, durante a minha caminhada matinal, voltei a "Flawless consulting" e senti-me assim:
Já publiquei três reflexões sobre: Falta a parte dolorosa da transição (Parte I, parte II e parte III). Sobre a importância de deixar as empresas morrerem.
Entretanto no livro encontro:
"THE QUESTION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ANSWER
What this means is that we have to learn to trust the questions and recognize that the way we ask the question drives the kind of answer we develop.
We get stuck by asking the wrong question. The most common wrong question is that of the engineer in each of us who wants to know how we get something done. This question quickly takes us down the path of methodology and technique. It assumes the problem is one of what to do rather than why to do it or even whether it is worth doing. [Moi ici: Relaciono isto com o pensamento de que se tivermos melhores gestores, faremos melhor as coisas e, por isso, ficaremos bem. Parte II]
...
BEYOND HOW
"How" questions will take us no further than our starting place. They result in trying harder at what we were already doing. The questions that heal us and offer hope for authentic change are the ones we cannot easily answer. Living systems are not controllable, despite the fact that they evolve toward order and some cohesion. To move a living system, we need to question what we are doing and why. We need to choose depth over speed, consciousness over action-at least for a little while.
The questions that lead to a change in thinking are more about why and where than about how. Some examples:
- What is the point of what we are doing? ...
- What has to die before we can move to something new? We want change but do not want to pay for it. We are always required to put aside what got us here to move on. Where do we find the courage to do this?" [Moi ici: Todas estas quatro frases são preciosas! O que precisa de morrer para dar lugar ao novo? Qual o preço da mudança que queremos ver? O que nos trouxe até aqui não nos conseguirá levar até acolá. Onde se arranja a coragem política para deixar a mudança acontecer?]
Há uma frase que diz que quando descobrimos que estamos num poço, num buraco, a primeira coisa que devemos fazer é deixar de cavar. Há coisa de um mês o jornal ECO lembrava-nos que o país cai há seis anos consecutivos no ranking da produtividade. Em vez de deixarmos de cavar, redobramos os esforços, aumentamos os investimentos no passado. Em vez de deixarmos de cavar, cavamos com mais intensidade. Se cavarmos melhor …
"O período 3 é falso, é rotundamente falso porque falta a parte dolorosa da transição. Falta criar as condições para os flying geese (A mudança bottom-up!, The "flying geese" model, ou deixem as empresas morrer!!!). É preciso deixar as empresas morrer (e como isto é dificil politicamente, os desempregados são eleitores). No entanto, o que se faz é apoiar essas empresas para que dêem o salto de produtividade ... a sério?!"
Afinal, os apoios nem são para ajudar as empresas a darem o salto de produtividade. Ontem no JN em "Desemprego atinge os concelhos industriais" li:
"TRABALHO Os concelhos com maior propensão industrial foram os que registaram os maiores aumentos do desemprego nos últimos 12 meses. Mais de metade dos novos desempregados estáno Norte, sobretudo onde predominam os setores do têxtil e do calçado, que se queixam de falta de encomendas. Para travar os despedimentos, o Governo prepara-se para suportar parte do salário dos trabalhadores que estão parados.
...
O setor do couro teve o maior aumento do desemprego, 15,4% Superior ajulho de 2022, e há empresários do calçado que pedem medidas para evitar "despedimentos em massa" (ler texto na página seguinte). Já o têxtil e o vestuário viram o desemprego subir acima dos 12%, porque "as empresas tiveram uma diminuição acentuada da procura", assinala Mário Jorge Machado, presidente da Associação Têxtil e Vestuário de Portugal. Isto deve-se à conjuntura internacional que arrefeceu os mercados europeus, o que levou a que o retalho vendesse menos do que o esperado no ano passado, gerando-se "excesso de stock" que, este ano, se repercute num travão das encomendas, acrescenta. [Moi ici: Ainda ontem à tarde na RTP 3 ouvi uma declaração do presidente da ATVP sobre o têxtil e a sustentabilidade em que, entre outras coisas, dizia que era preciso aumentar o tempo de vida do vestuário. Eu sorri e pensei no impacte desse justo objectivo na rentabilidade das empresas e no emprego têxtil]
...
O JN sabe que se trata de um programa dirigido aos trabalhadores das indústrias afetadas pela quebra de encomendas, nas quais se inclui o têxtil e vestuário.
A ideia é que o IEFP financie uma parte dos salários, desonerando as empresas que, de outra forma, teriam de recorrer ao lay-off ou despedir. A portaria que regulamenta o programa será publicada no inicio de setembro e as formações devem arrancar nesse mês. A duração prevista é até ao final do ano, mas os empresários veem vantagens em prolongá-lo a 2024. [Moi ici: Entretanto, o presidente da Associação das Indústrias de Vestuário e Confeção (ANIVEC), César Araújo, diz que apesar do desemprego as empresas não conseguem contratar]"
Recordar Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças (parte VI) onde se fala da inversão de ciclo nas exportações portuguesas.
É o medo atávico dos governos portugueses, que não querem deixar as empresas morrer e, por isso, amarram recursos escassos a empresas zombie.
"Acho que eu e tu continuamos com a mesma diferença de opinião sobre a qualidade dos empresários portugueses e da gestão em Portugal como causa para a falta de produtividade.Nota que no excerto do Cavaco que citas ele está a pôr o dedo nessa mesma ferida."
Ainda no Twitter respondi:
"Penso que posso dizer que não divergimos quanto à avaliação da qualidade média da gestão. Não posso negar a 2ª figura deste postal Mas claro, eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província. Amanhã respondo com um postal para ilustrar que isso é irrelevante para o salto de produtividade que o país precisa."
Por que é que a maior ou menor qualidade da gestão é irrelevante para o salto de produtividade que o país precisa?
Primeiro, olhar para o exemplo da cidade de St. Louis no Missouri, retirado de "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert. A produtividade nos sectores tradicionais pode aumentar mas atinge sempre um patamar de onde é difícil sair. Na figura que se segue:
Um artigo interessante na revista The Economist, "Britain | The low-wage economy - Britain's failed experiment in boosting low-wage sectors":
"Choking off immigration to make low-wage sectors more productive was never going to work
The BREXITEER plan to end free movement from the European Union was not only about satisfying popular hostility to immigration. Leavers also talked of fixing Britain's perennial productivity problems. Boris Johnson, as prime minister in 2021, described a future that was "high wage, high skill, high productivity", and would be realised only if Britain kicked its addiction to cheap foreign labour.
...
Businesses show little sign of investing more or raising wages to attract more domestic workers, says Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King's College London.
...
A lack of commitment was not the only reason the Brexiteers' experiment failed. The thinking behind it was also faulty. The real productivity problem starts at home. A significant factor is the poor quality of British managers, according to John Van Reenen and Nick Bloom, two economists who have conducted international surveys. Other research suggests that this is especially true in low-wage sectors."
"If you read what Peter Drucker had to say about competition back in the late ’50s and early ‘60s, he really only talked about one thing: competition on price. He was hardly alone — that was evidently how most economists thought about competition, too."
A economia não é como a física newtoniana, é contextual. O que funciona depois de algum tempo não funciona mais porque o contexto mudou. Nos anos 50 e início dos anos 60 a concorrência era no preço, ainda vivíamos no século XX.
Trecho inicial retirado de "What Is Strategy, Again?"
E aplicar o que segue a empresas? Atentas ao contexto, prontas a abraçar a mudança, e sentindo-se ao volante, estabelecem indicadores e objectivos, monitorizam o desempenho e tomam decisões com base no feedback. Não porque seguem uma receita, mas porque vivem.
"A person who is healthy, rich, strong, and powerful has no greater odds of being in control of his consciousness than one who is sickly, poor, weak, and oppressed. The difference between someone who enjoys life and someone who is overwhelmed by it is a product of a combination of such external factors and the way a person has come to interpret them - that is, whether he sees challenges as threats or as opportunities for action. [Moi ici: Recordar as reflexões sobre os que resistem à mudança versus os que a abraçam - Abraçar ou resistir à mudança? ou Resistir versus abraçar]
The "autotelic self" is one that easily translates potential threats into enjoyable challenges, and therefore maintains its inner harmony. A person who is never bored, seldom anxious, involved with what goes on, and in flow most of the time may be said to have an autotelic self. The term literally means "a self that has self-contained goals," and it reflects the idea that such an individual has relatively few goals that do not originate from within the self [Moi ici: Recordar as reflexões sobre o locus de controlo interno e externo - Isto é mesmo um desafio digno de Hercules e Calimeros - não obrigado!]. For most people, goals are shaped directly by biological needs and social conventions, and therefore their origin is outside the self. For an autotelic person, the primary goals emerge from experience evaluated in consciousness, and therefore from the self proper.
The autotelic self transforms potentially entropic experience into flow. Therefore the rules for developing such a self are simple, and they derive directly from the flow model. Briefly, they can be summarized as follows:
1. Setting goals. To be able to experience flow, one must have clear goals to strive for. A person with an autotelic self learns to make choices-ranging from lifelong commitments, such as getting married and settling on a vocation, to trivial decisions like what to do on the weekend or how to spend the time waiting in the dentist's office--without much fuss and the minimum of panic.
...
As soon as the goals and challenges define a system of action, they in turn suggest the skills necessary to operate within it. If I decide to quit my job and become a resort operator, it follows that I should learn about hotel management, financing, commercial locations, and so on. Of course, the sequence may also start in reverse order: what I perceive my skills to be could lead to the development of a particular goal that builds on those strengths - I may decide to become a resort operator because I see myself as having the right qualifications for it.
And to develop skills, one needs to pay attention to the results of one's actions-to monitor the feedback. To become a good resort operator, I have to interpret correctly what the bankers who might lend me money think about my business proposal. I need to know what features of the operation are attractive to customers and what features they dislike. Without constant attention to feedback I would soon become detached from the system of action, cease to develop skills, and become less effective.
One of the basic differences between a person with an autotelic self and one without it is that the former knows that it is she who has chosen whatever goal she is pursuing. What she does is not random, nor is it the result of outside determining forces. This fact results in two seemingly opposite outcomes. On the one hand, having a feeling of ownership of her decisions, the person is more strongly dedicated to her goals. Her actions are reliable and internally controlled. On the other hand, knowing them to be her own, she can more easily modify her goals whenever the reasons for preserving them no longer make sense. In that respect, an autotelic person's behavior is both more consistent and more flexible."
