Estarei a ser cínico-pessimista?

Taleb diz: "No stability without volatility" 

"São necessários mais estimulos financeiros, sobretudo públicos?

O financiamento é necessário mas não pode ser o único instrumento. Os empresários têm que fazer a sua parte. Ser empresário é assumir o risco e a responsabilidade de investir o seu próprio capital ou capital alheio sobre o qual assume a responsabilidade. E este programa de financiamento que está a ser desenhado faz com que os empresários assumam a responsabilidade por este investimento, não é dinheiro grátis. É dinheiro que exige responsabilidade.[Moi ici: Eu traduzo... dinheiro fácil para fogo de artifício ao estilo da Overcube. Quem pode estar contra o investimento no digital? É o futuro, assegurarão os gurus. Só que se calhar ainda precisam de fazer pequenas experiências para descobrir o modelo de negócio. Aposto que suportados no dinheiro do estado vão actuar ao estilo da Webvan]

E para onde deve ser canalizado esse investimento?

Tem que ser feito em áreas que, sobretudo, permitam beneficiar deste mundo digital em que hoje vivemos. Num mundo digital não há países periféricos. Isso significa que, com mais qualificação, com o arrojo dos nossos empresários que pensam num mundo global, é possível conseguirmos, seja nas áreas dos serviços ou do produto, efetivamente, estar no mundo. Nós, em 50 anos não conseguimos construir uma única marca global e paises da dimensao do nosso tem várias. Está na altura de o conseguirmos. E é importante que consigamos que essa marca global, ou essas marcas globais, possam servir de âncora para todo um ecossistema de outras empresas que possam acompanhar essa marca na sua internacionalização." [Moi ici: Eu traduzo, não tem qualquer pista, mas tem de dizer algo e, por isso, fala de marcas. Oh! Não temos uma marca! Vamos construir uma. Só precisamos de investimento suportado pelo estado]

Trecho retirado do JdN de ontem, em ""Num mundo digital não há países periféricos"". 

Entretanto no WSJ de ontem apanhei, "Bosses Know Al Is Big But That's About All":

"The potential of artificial intelligence isn't just flummoxing technology entrepreneurs. Chances are that your boss is standing at the base of the learning curve, too - right next to you. Rarely has such a transformative, new technology spread and evolved so quickly, even before business leaders have grasped its basics.

No wonder that in a recent survey of 2,000 C-suite executives, 61% said AI would be a "game-changer." Yet nearly the same share said they lacked confidence in their leadership teams' AI skills or knowledge, according to staffing company Adecco and Oxford Economics, which conducted the survey.

The upshot: Many chief executives and other senior managers are talking a visionary game about AI's promise to their staff-while trying to learn exactly what it can do.

...

A spring survey of 10,000 workers and executives by organizational consulting and executive search firm Korn Ferry also cited Al as a reason 71% of CEOs and two thirds of other senior leaders said they had "impostor syndrome" in their positions.

"They're uncertain about the impact, they're grappling with how not to fall behind," says Mark Arian, CEO of Korn Ferry's consulting business. "It's hard not to feel like an impostor.""

A história mostra-nos que injecções de capital público frequentemente resultam em desperdício e fracassos retumbantes onde o dinheiro é queimado em projectos sem solidez. Como aquelas pessoas que compram um bruto carrão, mas depois não têm dinheiro para manter o carro. Aparentemente, esse padrão repetir-se-á quando se fala em fomentar a criação de marcas globais a partir de uma visão superficial e sem uma estratégia clara, apenas com o suporte financeiro estatal. 

Não estou a falar de crime, estou a falar de dinheiro fácil.

"Al is here to work with us"

No Financial Times de 27 de Janeiro último encontrei o artigo, "Patient monitoring - Al fridges cut readmissions to hospital in NHS pilot":

"A pilot scheme using artificial intelligence in kettles and fridges to monitor discharged hospital patients in England has reduced unplanned readmissions by 77 per cent, its creators have said.

The Onward Care scheme, developed in partnership with Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust in south-east England, is the first of its kind to be used in the health service.

"Al is here to work with us," said Jenny Ricketts, deputy chief operating officer for the trust. "Not to do the job for us. People, especially the elderly, like human contact. The Al just makes it easier for us to do that."

The system operates by linking AI electronic sensors on kettles and fridges to detect changes in drinking and eating patterns. Variances are then flagged with a member of the Onward Care programme who can arrange help.

...

Adrian McCourt, managing director of the Onward Care service, said the pilot had supported about 140 people at home for 12 weeks after they were discharged from hospital.

He estimated that on average 40 per cent of "frail" patients who may not have fully recovered are readmitted to hospital within six months of being discharged. Under the pilot, he said, this figure has been reduced by 77 per cent. A box similar to Amazon's Alexa voice assistant is put in people's homes. Data is fed into a central dashboard.

"If a patient's behaviour is changing we get a notification which prompts us to investigate," McCourt said. "We also have sensors on fridges and kettles, which we use to understand whether hydration and nutrition is changing."

"However, if surprises happen"

"When the environment is stable, AI can surpass humans. If the future is like the past, large amounts of data are useful. However, if surprises happen, big data - which are always data from the past - may mislead us about the future. Big data algorithms missed the financial crisis of 2008 and in 2016 predicted Hillary Clinton's victory by a large margin.

In fact, many problems we face are not well-defined games but situations in which uncertainty abounds: finding true love, predicting who will commit a crime and reacting in unforeseen emergency situations are examples. Here, more computing power and bigger data are of limited help. Humans are the key source of uncertainty. Imagine how much more difficult chess would be if the king could violate the rules at a whim and the queen could stomp off the board in protest after setting the rooks on fire. With people involved, trust in complex algorithms can lead to illusions of certainty that become a recipe for disaster."

Trecho retirado de "How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms" de Gerd Gigerenzer 

"humans with Al will replace humans without Al"

Há cerca de um mês e meio em E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI? recordava uma frase de Kasparov:

"Algures li uma afirmação de Kasparov que dizia que um grande mestre perdia sempre contra um supercomputador, mas que um jogador mediano com um computador mediano, juntos batiam sempre o supercomputador."

Agora em "Training with Al: Evidence from chess computers" encontro:

"Using the case study of chess computers, we examine the linkage between Al-backed simulation and learning strategic interactions. It is plausible that Al will democratize opportunities to learn strategic-and potentially more broadly social-interactions. If so, Al may become a game changer well beyond the game of chess. While it has often been asked whether Al will replace humans, our study suggests that a more imminent change may be that humans with Al will replace humans without Al."

Again, como é que na sua empresa está a ser testada, usada, aproveitada a AI? 

Vantagem competitiva, capital intelectual externo e Mongo

Ontem, aproveitando uma viagem de ida e volta a Bragança iniciei a escuta do livro "The Coming Wave" de Mustafa Suleyman e Michael Bhaskar.

A certa altura, já no regresso fixei este trecho tão ao jeito de Mongo:

“The field of systems biology aims to understand the “larger picture” of a cell, tissue, or organism by using bioinformatics and computational biology to see how the organism works holistically; such efforts could be the foundation for a new era of personalized medicine. Before long the idea of being treated in a generic way will seem positively medieval; everything, from the kind of care we receive to the medicines we are offered, will be precisely tailored to our DNA and specific biomarkers. Eventually, it might be possible to reconfigure ourselves to enhance our immune responses. That, in turn, might open the door to even more ambitious experimentation like longevity and regenerative technologies, already a burgeoning area of research.” 

Ao ouvir isto pensei logo no que pode tornar obsoleta a indústria farmacêutica tal como a conhecemos. E foi então que a imagem de Roger Martin, "For me, the metaphor for competitive advantage is a long row of rooms. In this conception, every company, at any given point in time, exists in a room of its own making", publicada ontem no blogue me assaltou. Quando aqui escrevo sobre a importância do investimento directo estrangeiro, estou na verdade a abordar a possibilidade de capital intelectual vindo de fora permitir unidades de negócio que dão saltos na sequência da "row of rooms"

E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI? (parte III)

Parte II.

"Our case studies, based on our growing global community of over 3,000 GenAI practitioners, point to a new category of work, more precise and actionable than “knowledge work.” We call it WINS Work: the places where tasks, functions, possibly your entire company or industry are dependent on the manipulation and interpretation of Words, Images, Numbers, and Sounds (WINS). Heart surgeons and chefs are knowledge workers but not WINS workers. Software programmers, accountants, and marketing professionals are WINS workers.

GenAI has the potential to be power tools for WINS work. It can generate new prose, computer code, images, narration, music, and videos as well as ingest and summarize, critique, improve, and reformat almost any manner of document or analysis. Every WINS task, subprocess, and end-to-end process within your enterprise (and in many cases the entire enterprise) should be evaluated for potential leverage with GenAI."

Na semana passada estava numa reunião com alguém de uma empresa metalomecânica e discutiam-se objectivos para o sistema de gestão ambiental. 

 - Como se pode reduzir o consumo de óleo por peça produzida? 

Eu, um nabo em metalomecânica, perante o plissar da reunião, fui ao chatGPT e fiz uma pergunta sobre que variáveis influenciam o consumo de óleo numa "stamping operation". E logo recebi uma lista de 10 variáveis que faziam mesmo sentido. E não sou um WINS worker.

Recomendo a leitura de "Where Should Your Company Start with GenAl?" Segundo os autores, as empresas fortemente dependentes do trabalho do WINS devem agir agora para evitar uma concorrência mais acirrada e concorrentes disruptivos dentro de 36 a 60 meses, evitando custos elevados, processos desactualizados, desvantagem de dados, perda de talentos e capital mais caro.

Julgo que os autores não deviam limitar o conselho ao mundo WINS. Ainda na passada segunda-feira o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras contou-me um caso da sua empresa. A empresa tinha uma dificuldade, contactou o fornecedor de há várias anos, e obteve uma resposta da treta. Alguém pesquisou o tema com o chatGPT, obteve uma solução para o problema e arranjou a morada de dois fornecedores alternativos. A empresa do meu parceiro chamou o fornecedor tradicional e explicou-lhe a situação, e disse-lhe qualquer coisa como:

- Se vocês não evoluem, põem-nos a nós clientes em desvantagem.

Acham que um vendedor de componentes assemblados para máquinas industriais é um trabalhador WINS?

O velho engº Matsumoto tinha horror ao que ele chamava "catalog engineers", os vendedores que só sabem recitar o que vem nos catálogos da empresa.

E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI? (parte II)

Parte I.

Consultei o 2023 Tech Trends Report Executive Summary e fiquei fascinado com esta tabela e as previsões sobre a relevância da AI já no curto-prazo:

"More and more leaders see AI as necessary for growth in the current macroeconomic environment, even as new developments make some job categories obsolete. In nearly every industry, AI will serve as a force multiplier for growth, bringing efficiencies, better tracking, business intelligence and assistance with decision-making. As training costs decline, more applications will be built. Spending on AI systems and hardware is likely to explode this decade, creating significant enterprise value.

...

HOW TO PREPARE: We recommend that chief strategy officers in every field develop a solid understanding of AI to engage more closely with the C-suite to develop a cohesive point of view on digitalization, augmentation and automation-and develop strategic plans. Importantly, businesses should keep abreast of emerging regulations that could restrict the use of consumer data, algorithms or generative AI systems. Risk models should be developed to determine plausible near-futures, so that leaders can adjust their strategies accordingly."

Trechos retirados de "The Tech Trends Every Leader Needs to Understand" de Amy Webb na revista Rotman deste Outono.

E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI?

Na semana passada, talvez na quinta-feira, já não tenho a certeza, o chatGPT esteve inoperacional. Por curiosidade fui ver se aparecia nas tendências do Twitter em português... e nada.

Sintomático...

Sempre que penso em AI penso nas palavras de Kasparov:

"Algures li uma afirmação de Kasparov que dizia que um grande mestre perdia sempre contra um supercomputador, mas que um jogador mediano com um computador mediano, juntos batiam sempre o supercomputador."

Na revista Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know" encontro: 

"Curt Nickisch: In late 2022, people started talking about how ChatGPT was poised to change work as we know it. What is so special about this technology?

Ethan Mollick: ChatGPT-3, which is the base generation of this technology, was around for about a year, and it was okay. It worked at or near the level of a D-minus student. But we have since crossed a threshold of ability that has made ChatGPT incredibly useful. It can now achieve the output of a B-minus student. And if you use a more advanced model like the one on Microsoft's Bing search engine, you can achieve the level of an A-minus student. This represents radical progress in a very short period of time.

...

CN: What kind of opportunities does this open up for companies?

EM: There is no rulebook or manual to work from, so you have to explore for opportunities yourself. As indicated, this AI is really good at writing computer code and common documents like memos or reports. If you need to write a letter of recommendation or a performance review, it will do an amazing job. But when you start to incorporate the Bing version or some of the other new AIs coming our way, you'll be able to get it to do complex, multi-layered tasks. For example, you'll be able to say, 'Look up everything about the precision agriculture industry and give me a table showing the growth rates for each company along with their strengths and weaknesses, using the perspective of Michael Porter's Five Forces Model.' This type of request could save someone up to 12 hours of work and provide a document that they can build on - because as good as it is, you do still have to check Al's work."

A verdade é que entre Maio e Agosto últimos estive envolvido num projecto usando AI e foi impressionante o ganho em produtividade.

E na sua empresa, como está a ser aproveitada a AI?

Ainda na mesma Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know":

"SP: Gillian, Do you think this technological moment is different from previous ones?

GH: I do. What is critical here is the speed with which AI transforms entire markets. For example, in the legal domain, I've seen how, in just a few minutes, tools like ChatGPT can do what it would usually take a week for a lawyer to do. That is going to be very disruptive, and the potential scale is massive. Because it's a general purpose technology, it can and will show up everywhere."

Ainda na mesma Rotman deste Outono em "ChatGPT: What Leaders Need to Know":

"You can't call up a consulting company and ask them how to implement ChatGPT across your company, like you would with Salesforce or some other system application. Over time, there will be more organizational applications, but so far, the main story is at the individual level. And people are using it. I guarantee you, there are secret users of ChatGPT in every organization who have cut their workload by two thirds and don't want to tell anyone about it. I'm hearing examples all the time. It's easy to get started; you just need to spend an hour or two learning how it works and what it's good and bad at.

I've talked to tons of people who are big fans. First of all, virtually everyone in programming is using it to help with coding. They've switched over from Stack Exchange to ChatGPT. But increasingly I'm talking to managers who have just automated tasks like performance reviews, grant applications or regulatory compliance. This is a general-purpose technology, as its name suggests."