Há um ano escrevi aqui "Qual o resultado final?"
Qual o resultado final do balanço de forças entre a procura tradicional das empresas portuguesas (sector transaccionável) e a procura na Ásia para satisfazer os mercados que as empresas portuguesas já servem ou podem vir a servir.
Depois, em Setembro de 2022 escrevi "Como eu gostava de saber" (parte I e parte II)
Na sequência desse tema desenvolvi uma série de postais sobre o tema "Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças" (parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V).
Já em Julho passado fui obrigado a escrever "Inversão de ciclo", perante a evolução dos números das exportações.
Entretanto, ontem no FT encontro "China's factories bear brunt of the economic slowdown":
"From slowing global demand to rising geopolitical tensions and a tentative post-Covid recovery, China's manufacturers are tackling some of the strongest headwinds in years.
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Factory activity, one of the main pillars of growth during the pandemic, has slowed for four consecutive months to July 31, according to official statistics.
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Feng Tai Footwear exemplifies the difficulties faced by the low-technology manufacturers on which China's economic success has been built. Before the pandemic it sold some 5mn pairs of shoes a year to clients such as Walmart and Target. This year it will do well to sell 3mn. Orders for the second half of this year are down at least a third compared with last year.
"Our sector is in misery," said chief executive Eddie Lam, who runs more than 10 manufacturing plants in China and employs more than 3,000 workers. "Orders often get cancelled halfway. We are basically at a standstill," he added. The country's monthly export delivery value of goods made with leather, fur or feathers as well as footwear has fallen more than a third from 2019, hitting nearly Rmb17bn ($2.4bn) in May this year.
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Some clients have asked if the company can set up factories outside China, but Feng Tai has no plans yet.
"The US knows very well it cannot risk decoupling from China," Lam said. "I just don't see the advantage of moving production to south-east Asia with higher supply chain costs and additional investments required.
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"We have to consider [China] 'plus one' or even more," said Ho, managing director of Tien Sung Group, of global tensions and supply chain disruptions. "We can't put all our eggs in one basket."[Moi ici: Aqui recordo o banhista gordo]"
BTW, este gráfico faz-me lembrar o esquema dos Flying Geese:
Vamos ver se o governo chinês resiste à tentação de, também ele, usar a receita portuguesa: proteger o passado e hipotecar o futuro. Porque como se lê no artigo, é desejo do Presidente Xi Jinping optar por um crescimento "de alta qualidade" que favorece as indústrias de tecnologia em detrimento dos vastos centros de fabrico que produzem bens de consumo básicos.
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