Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte IV)

• Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all
• Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte II)
• Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte III)

"People took growth, which was the old metric of success on web, and applied it to these mobile products and assumed that meant these products were working.
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With pretty minimal exploitation, it’s now possible to brute force your way to numbers that offer the mirage of a long-term engaged audience.
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The accelerated rate of growth does not come with the same benefits that the older, harder to achieve, web growth came with. We see it as companies with millions of users are shut down over and over.
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As we move forward and growth and network start to become ubiquitous, products will need to provide clear value-add to creators and consumers. Because the growth strategy was enabled by an ad-based monetization strategy products will need to make sure to have clear alternative monetization strategies as well.
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But, just as people learned the importance network played in the last consumer tech evolution, I believe people will over time learn to appreciate that long term value is what the next networks will be built on."

Por isso, cuidado com a corrida desenfreada para ser o maior.

Trechos retirados de "Social networks are dead, long live social networks"

"You can't assume that value magically or organically emerges"

"The third prerequisite is the ability to meet your promises in the field and on the manufacturing line. If you don't deliver on your promises, then you will find it difficult to extract value. Companies have a tendency to offer price discounts to cover up shortcomings on the product or service side. This practice is flawed for two reasons: First, it masks and perpetuates the product and services deficits. Second, it diminishes perceived value. Fix your issues first, then build your foundation. Fixing the issues is not only a mechanical or manufacturing challenge. It is also a cultural one. A culture of execution to high standards prevents you from backsliding or accepting lower quality in the future. You have to make sure you deliver on your promises; otherwise, you may not get a second chance, no matter how good you may be objectively. Customers won't trust you.
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VBP has to be an explicit corporate priority. If value is just another buzzword you're entertaining, don't do it. It will fail. A company's strategic charter usually offers clues to how committed that organization is to value. When I read these charters, I often see talk about operational excellence, innovation, ethics, and sustainability. But where is the word "value"? Where is the phrase that I rarely if ever see: "differentiation value?" You can't assume that value magically or organically emerges through all of your other actions as a company. You have to identify it explicitly, and you have to measure it.
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teams quickly forget that value is subjective. It is relative, segment-specific, and future-oriented. For these reasons, value is always a moving target, rather than a fixed one you can home in on. The challenges of tracking that moving target are many,"

Trechos retirados de "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value" de Stephan M. Liozu.

Alterar a oferta (parte III)

Na parte II sublinhámos:

"This era was dominated by three imperatives: that stores must look the same, that in-store service must be the same, and that bigger was better.
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The disadvantage, of course, is that everything looks and feels the same, wherever you are, whatever the brand.
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The approach is rapidly losing its pertinence: customers are moving on. The new middle classes, who were invited to share in these brands, now want to be surprised. They demand a newness and diversity that cannot be satisfied by uniform stores."

Depois, encontrei este documentário a um monumento ao século XX em "The Monotony Of Globalism: 32 Cities, 32 Identical Hotel Rooms":

"the founder of the monster hotel chain, Conrad Hilton, that claimed "Each of our hotels is a little America." Eager to test that assertion, Eberhard booked a standard Hilton room in every city he visited, staying for only one night in each.
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Otherwise, it's the same sterile environment repeated with every turn of the page.
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With the rise of companies like Airbnb and the reach of social media, a universal style has seeped its way into cities worldwide—and it's a type of uniformity that extends beyond hotel walls.[Moi ici: ???] Preceding all of this was Hilton, repeating its design all over the world as it sprang up in city after city in the '60s, paving the way for this level of sameness and our ready acceptance of it."

Desenhado para funcionários em viagem em pleno Normalistão. O futuro não passará por aqui, certamente. Pelo menos para a maioria fora da caixa.

Curiosidade do dia

Recuar a 2013 e a 2007 antes de ler "Governo vai ter incubadora para Indústria 4.0".

Ilusões

Alterar a oferta (parte II)

Nem de propósito, já depois de publicar "Alterar a oferta" que termino assim:

"O autor fala da mesma oferta através de canais diferentes. Julgo que o essencial é alterar a oferta da loja física e fazê-la uma pequena parte, um complemento, de algo bem maior, a experiência de pertencer a uma comunidade."

Li "The End of Cookie-Cutter Luxury Stores". OK é sobre o luxo, mas talvez o retalho do luxo represente ou possa representar uma espécie de ponta de lança, ou vanguarda do que o retalho deve fazer:

"Imagine a Hermès flagship store in the French countryside where consumers could experience a real riding stable complete with horses. Could this be the future of luxury retail?
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We have just lived through an era of rapid global expansion during which luxury brands extended their retail networks to the four corners of the world. This era was dominated by three imperatives: that stores must look the same, that in-store service must be the same, and that bigger was better.
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This has led to ever-larger flagship stores, cookie-cutter store designs and environments, ‘selling ceremony’ manuals and centrally-controlled buying and merchandising. For the brands, the advantage has been guaranteed quality standards. The disadvantage, of course, is that everything looks and feels the same, wherever you are, whatever the brand.
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The approach is rapidly losing its pertinence: customers are moving on. The new middle classes, who were invited to share in these brands, now want to be surprised. They demand a newness and diversity that cannot be satisfied by uniform stores. The problem is compounded by the increasingly fragmented nature of the consumer base. Most mega-brands serve local and travelling consumers, indigenous and overseas clients, high-end and aspirational shoppers. A single standardised format simply does not work for all of these constituencies."

A loja tem de passar a ser muito mais do que um local para expor a oferta, para isso há a internet. A loja tem de passar a ser uma plataforma que faça as pessoas virem à loja fazer a única coisa em que é preciso um espaço físico: para interagir com outros. Para partilhar, para celebrar, para aprender, para co-criar, para ...

Em tempos de mudança ...

Recordar "Quem somos?" e perceber que em tempos de mudança forte, em tempos de corte, é o nosso apego à familiaridade do que somos que nos impede, ou cria a fricção que dificulta a abertura para o novo que teremos de construir para ser.

É o que diferencia muitas vezes os pré-adolescentes dos adultos em situações de desastre e faz deles uns sobreviventes.

Recordar Laurence Gonzales:

• Característica nº 12
• "Survivors don’t expect or even hope to be rescued"
• "We find our way by getting lost."

Contrastar com os Pigarros sempre com direitos adquiridos e protegidos pelo Estado e com os que têm a palavra apoio e subsídio na mente.

Ontem de manhã, no noticiário das 08h00, a Antena 1 apresentou uma peça sobre o desemprego. O texto lido era mais ou menos este o qual era complementado com uma entrevista ao presidente da câmara de Tabuaço, município com uma taxa de desemprego superior a 20%. Com quase 53 anos e muito tarimbado nestas andanças, quase que me escandalizei com as palavras do referido presidente da câmara. Segundo ele, o desemprego em Tabuaço era elevado porque o governo central ainda não tinha feito nada pelo Interior. Tanto locus de controlo no exterior ... até dói.

Neste caso, o que proponho é um voltar às origens. Por que é que Tabuaço dura há tantos anos? No tempo em que cada terra tinha de viver por si, de que é que Tabuaço vivia? Como é que Tabuaço pode construir uma economia com gente com skin-in-the-game privilegiando o que já fez Tabuaço "grande", sustentável, no passado?

Talvez seja tempo de deixar de esperar ajudas de Lisboa e de querer copiar o Porto e Lisboa.

Da Wikipedia retiro:

"As raízes da vila de Tabuaço remontam a tempos mais velhos do que a própria nacionalidade portuguesa. Durante a Pré-História, vários foram os povos que aqui se instalaram e desenvolveram a sua acção, visível quer em ruínas de abrigos e castros, quer em vestígios de instrumentos de trabalho, como peças de cerâmica ou primitivos lagares e lagaretas de azeite e vinho."

Come on! Querem-me dizer que uma terra que atraiu gente tão cedo não é capaz de ter pernas para andar? 

Começar pelo fim

Eis um conselho mágico que procuro seguir há muitos anos:

"Stephen Covey wrote one of my all-time favorite books, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. In this book, one of Covey’s seven habits was to Begin with the End in Mind. To do this, you think of the future result you want and work backwards from there. Sound and solid advice now, as it was when Covey wrote it.
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The key to successfully achieving a positive outcome is to first define what a successful outcome is and work backwards from there. In most situations, there are many choices of action, some that will lead to an unfavorable outcome. By defining the outcome first, you match the actions to that outcome, and you massively improve your chances of success."

Recordar:

• Começar pelo fim e outros conselhos
• Mais uma vez e sempre: Começar pelo fim!!!
• Começar pelo fim 

Trechos retirados de "Match Your Actions to Your Outcomes"

Curiosidade do dia

"A fórmula de alianças oscilantes proposta ... era uma fórmula instável ... e que não podia ser coerente (o que é oscilante não pode ter uma linha de orientação estratégica) porque depende das oportunidades e conflitualidades conjunturais.
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Quatro décadas depois, não se aprendeu nada e não se esqueceu nada, repetem-se os mesmos erros como se fossem propostas novas. Não são propostas novas, a estratégia de charneira é uma fórmula de dupla negação, nem direita nem esquerda, que pretende fazer do partido que se coloca na fronteira entre a direita e a esquerda o partido do poder indispensável. Mas é o mesmo erro, porque o partido do poder indispensável não pode governar, não quer ser de direita e não consegue ser de esquerda: o partido do poder indispensável condena a economia e a sociedade à dívida para ocultar a estagnação.
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Para quê estar no poder se não se exerce o poder?"

Trecho retirado de "Ocupar o poder sem exercer o poder"

Alterar a oferta

Ou estou muito enganado ou "How Retailers Should Think About Online Versus In-Store Pricing" passa ao lado do essencial.

"One of the biggest questions faced by brick-and-mortar retailers today is whether prices should be the same online and in stores. Gaining clarity on this issue is critical for traditional retailers to successfully compete in both environments.
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It’s clear that an increasing number of customers don’t value the experience of shopping in physical stores. [Moi ici: Há que mudar de experiência e repensá-la. Recordar "You Are What You Charge For"].
Brick-and-mortar retailers have a strategy problem. To avoid going the way of milkmen, they have to continue to: ramp up web operations; create new reasons — and value — for consumers to patronize stores; and limit physical locations to areas with populations dense enough to support stores. [Moi ici: Errado!!! A internet ajuda a tornar a geografia irrelevante]...
Retailers should view their online and in-store channels as unique services, much like gas stations offering self-service and full-service options. Relatively higher prices can capture the premium that some customers place on purchasing in-store. Web prices can be lower to compete against aggressive e-tailers.
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Smartphones make it easy for customers to find lower online prices while they are in a physical store; this reality may make retail executives hesitant to set different online and in-store prices. The worry is that consumers will be put off by knowing that prices differ based on channel or experience. But this hasn’t been the case with airlines (prices differ if booked online versus over the phone), gas stations (self versus full serve), and retail (regular versus outlet stores).
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In those industries, customers accept the price differences and choose what’s best for them. To succeed in the modern world of retail, executives need to embrace web and in-store as unique operations that cater to customers with different needs and price sensitivities."

O autor fala da mesma oferta através de canais diferentes. Julgo que o essencial é alterar a oferta da loja física e fazê-la uma pequena parte, um complemento, de algo bem maior, a experiência de pertencer a uma comunidade.

Para reflectir acerca da incerteza

"uncertainty seems to be breaking out all over the place. Given the political earthquakes we’ve witnessed in the U.K. and the U.S., “you need to prepare yourself for several years of uncertainty,”
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It makes sense that uncertainty is the watchword of the day. Significant changes are afoot in the structures governing our economy
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But here’s the thing: Business has always been uncertain, even when it seemed predictable. The television financial pundit Jim Cramer likes to say that there’s always a bull market somewhere. The corollary is that there is always a bear market somewhere else. Industries are forever being born, and business models, worldviews, and understandings are continually under assault. It’s just that some of the companies facing sudden uncertainty today ... have become accustomed to relative stability in this current economic expansion, which dates to 2009.
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It’s a natural human tendency to want certainty, and to have a bias toward it. Imagine how difficult it would be to wake up each morning not being entirely sure that the enterprise is on the right path, or that your assumptions about how the world works are correct.
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But even when things seem certain — especially when they seem certain — they may not be. Events continually upset the conventional wisdom. Reading history, it’s often astonishing, in hindsight, how countries, companies, and people carried on as if everything were normal, certain in their path, until the moment they were swamped by a tidal wave whose formation was easily detectable ... lots of people would prefer to ignore prospective changes than to start preparing for them.
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One of the best ways to prepare for uncertainty is to accept that things are inherently less certain than we may have thought."

Trechos retirados de "Executives of an Uncertain Age"

Mongo e o efeito IKEA

Relaciono a crescente importância da interacção, da relação, da co-criação com o advento de Mongo. Por isso, sublinho:

"a common human occurrence. For example, in what researchers have termed the Ikea effect, people who have built items themselves come to see “their amateurish creations as similar in value to experts’ creations.” As suits our  current focus on the effects of acting together, it is worth inquiring into an additional pair of possibilities. Would people who had a hand in creating something hand in hand with another come to feel a special affinity not only for their creation but also for their cocreator?What’s more, might this exceptional affinity stem from a feeling of unity with the other that’s detectible in the characteristic consequences of elevated liking and self-sacrificial support for the partner?
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If co-creation causes at least a temporary merging of identities, then what applies to one partner also applies to the other, distributional logic notwithstanding."

Trechos retirados de "Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade"

A propósito dos Bruce Jenner

Ainda ontem referi como as PME se sentem atraídas pelo modelo Bruce Jenner.
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Assim, foi interessante apanhar estes trechos em "Competing Against Luck":

"When a company makes big investments in developing relationships with customers, natural incentives arise to find ways to sell more products to existing customers. The marginal cost of selling more products to existing customers is very small—and the profit is oh so alluring. We call this “surface growth.” Companies see products all around them made by other companies and decide to copy or acquire them. But in doing so, companies often end up trying to create many products for many customers—and lose focus on the job that brought them success in the first place. Worse, trying to do many jobs for many customers can confuse customers so they hire the wrong products for the wrong jobs and end up firing them in frustration instead. This makes companies vulnerable to disrupters who focus on a single job—and do it well.[Moi ici: Os salami slicers]"

Curiosidade do dia

Texto dedicado aos Cortes deste país.

"As ilusões criadas em Portugal no ano de 2016 estão a desaparecer, porque a realidade se impõe e porque o mundo se tornou ainda mais perigoso. Podemos escolher aquilo em que acreditar durante algum tempo, mas nunca todo o tempo. Há um momento em que a realidade se impõe. Num país como Portugal, essa realidade, em que muitos não quiseram nem querem acreditar, começa já a impor-se sob a forma de uma taxa de juro mais alta.
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Todas estas taxas de juro em alta são alertas, cada vez mais vermelhos, a avisarem-nos que há cada vez menos investidores disponíveis para financiar o Estado português.
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Os erros de análise que foram cometidos, quando se disse que o défice não iria ser cumprido em 2016, são de calendário e não de conteúdo. Ou seja, a política económica que está a ser seguida é insustentável, coloca Portugal no caminho do precipício, o que não se sabe é quando estaremos à beira de cair."

Trechos retirados de "Os alertas vermelhos da subida dos juros"

Em busca de um mundo melhor

Foi com um evento organizado pelo então recém-eleito presidente da república Mário Soares que comecei a descobrir o universo da mensagem de Karl Popper. E este livro "Em busca de um mundo melhor" é um livro que gosto de oferecer:

"All things living are in search of a better world. [Moi ici: As empresas também são seres vivos] Men, animals, plants, even unicellular organisms are constantly active. They are trying to improve their situation, or at least to avoid its deterioration… Every organism is constantly preoccupied with the task of solving problems. These problems arise from its own assessments of its condition and of its environment; conditions which the organism seeks to improve… We can see that life — even at the level of the unicellular organism — brings something completely new into the world, something that did not previously exist: problems and active attempts to solve them; assessments, values; trial and error.
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It is not the search for certainty. To err is human. All human knowledge is fallible and therefore uncertain. It follows that we must distinguish sharply between truth and certainty. That to err is human means not only that we must constantly struggle against error, but also that, even when we have taken the greatest care, we cannot be completely certain that we have not made a mistake… To combat the mistake, the error, means therefore to search for objective truth and to do everything possible to discover and eliminate falsehoods. This is the task of scientific activity. Hence we can say: our aim as scientists is objective truth; more truth, more interesting truth, more intelligible truth. We cannot reasonably aim at certainty.
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Since we can never know anything for sure, it is simply not worth searching for certainty; but it is well worth searching for truth; and we do this chiefly by searching for mistakes, so that we can correct them."

Depois, com Pedro Arroja descobri um outro pensador que complementa bem Popper e é muito mais simpático para um libertário, Paul Feyerabend.

Trechos retirados de "In Search of a Better World: Karl Popper on Truth vs. Certainty and the Dangers of Relativism"

Acerca dos bancos e Mongo

"They lost the most important asset Ask anyone on the street what they think of banks and how they behave with our money and their two most important requirements of trust and respect are rarely on the list. Add to that the technological possibilities emerging for peer-to-peer finance and we have a looming great finance disruption. No industry is immune to a revolution, not even banks.
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Like many industries the once ‘physical’ side of what banks had to produce is less and almost totally irrelevant. The security of a bank is not a function of how secure its vaults are. The vaults are now all virtual, as is the impending business model. In short, banks are in the data and trust business. Now that data has been democratised, it’s only rational to assume that new players will emerge and do what banks do. With the tools of banking now being cheap, more peer-to-peer finance will emerge within the business of traditional banking.
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As with many industries, the supply chain is being shortened. People are choosing to deal direct. Why? Because we can.
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Like much of the change we’ve already seen in many industries, it won’t be about a new player coming in to knock over the incumbents by doing what they do. It will happen, and is happening, in much the same way as what we’ve seen in retail, media and other industries: fragment by fragment."[Moi ici: Outra vez o lago de nenúfares]

Recordar:

• Acerca da banca do futuro (parte II)
• Acerca do futuro dos bancos

"M-Pesa is the conduit for half of Kenya’s GDP. Credit goes from phone to phone, and that credit is a new form of money” Ping @tar1na

— Esko Kilpi (@EskoKilpi) April 17, 2016

Trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino

"In B2B, customer value is a number, not a verbal expression"

A maioria das PME resiste a segmentar os seus clientes. Qual Bruce Jenner, com um histórico de generalista, não querem dizer não a ninguém, querem servir todos em simultâneo. Por isso, este sublinhado:

"You also need to define your segments and know them well. This means needs-based segments, not ones based on superficial factors such as geography or company size (small, medium, large). Only then can you begin to define and extract your true differentiation in your market, by segment. What you deliver in terms of value will differ from segment to segment, which means you can't make blanket assumptions about the benefits you provide customers in each segment. Their problems their solutions are all different, even if the differences are subtle. So the reality is and that you start building general customer propositions and introduce your teams to them. This first step often helps people realize the need to move away from one-size-fits-all processes to needs-based segmentation.
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In B2B, customer value is a number, not a verbal expression.
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continue with a discussion around how to share that value pool, because both parties need to derive some benefit from the relationship. It is unfair for the customer to claim all of the value, leaving you as the supplier with no material benefit. There is a name for the art and science of striking that balance.
That name is "pricing." It is also the end game!
But you will notice that in the previous three paragraphs, plus the statements, the word "pricing" never appears. There is a good reason for that. You need to lay the specific foundation before you can start with setting prices. That foundation is the central element to successful VBP. It depends highly on that third C, customer value. This foundation is the missing piece in most companies. It requires investments of time, money, and in many cases political and social capital. These are the foundational pillars of VBP. One does not become intimate with customers overnight."

Trechos retirados de "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value" de Stephan M. Liozu.

Palavras sensatas

Palavras sensatas de alguém que me habituei a respeitar:

"The other paradigm views policies as solutions to specific problems. Because each society [Moi ici: Substituir por empresa] has a unique set of characteristics, constraints and goals, policies are necessarily idiosyncratic: the path is made by walking. This does not mean that one should disregard what can be learned from others; but imitation without adaptation is a recipe for ineffectiveness, if not worse. It can easily imply importing solutions to non-existent problems, while letting real problems fester.
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took the risk of imagining some key strategic, export-oriented investments, and then focused on creating the conditions to make them happen.
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Authentic leadership requires a commitment to real goals. But, to achieve them, there are no prêt-à-porter solutions. Tailoring policies to specific problems, without disregarding the lessons from the past or from elsewhere, involves risks, and any responsible leader will necessarily feel the anxiety this creates."

Trechos retirados "Authentic Leadership"

BTW, Nuno podemos aprender algo com o Panamá?

Curiosidade do dia

Zé Reis é uma personagem já catalogada neste blogue há muitos anos como um lídimo representante da tríade. Por isso, isto não surpreende "José Reis: Declínio da economia portuguesa deve-se à arquitectura institucional da UEM".

Sempre que oiço as diatribes dos Zé Reis deste país, ele próprio juntou uns quantos num livro:

"A obra conta com o contributo de 35 especialistas, entre os quais Ana Gomes, José Cunha Rodrigues, Francisco Louçã, Guilherme d'Oliveira Martins, João Ferreira do Amaral, João Semedo, Marco Capitão Ferreira e Rui Tavares."

Lembro-me das palavras de Jesus em Mateus 11, 25:

"Por aquele tempo, exclamou Jesus: Graças te dou, ó Pai, Senhor do céu e da terra, porque ocultaste estas coisas aos sábios e instruídos e as revelaste aos pequeninos."

Os pequeninos aqui são os empresários que calam estes gurus, recordar "Aprenda a duvidar dos media (parte XII)".

A economia transaccionável prospera apesar do jugo imposto pelos Zés Reis deste país

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XVII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV e parte XVI.

"Business doesn’t sell to aggregates, it sells to individuals. [Moi ici: Gosto tanto disto! Martelo tanto as empresas acerca disto!] It always has. But the mass era helped marketers forget this. Advertising in the future (for those who still have to buy attention) is to start selling again to individuals who’ve already provided some form of permission to the marketer. The move is away from buying media in demographic chunks to buying the attention of individuals because we sell to individuals.[Moi ici: Como não recordar o sucesso, que foi um insucesso, dos vídeos do Old Spice man. Sucesso a nível de visualizações não é o propósito último, esse é o de vender]
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What happens then is that we do business one on one; that is, at a personal level. Smart marketers pre-empt and solve problems for their connected audience and do immediate and direct e-commerce. They don’t sell mind-spam 30 seconds at a time hoping it may hit a ‘target’ and someone may buy what’s on offer.
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The number of media channels is exploding into über niches. Even people are now media companies.
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Large mass audiences will become more rare and more expensive."

Mongo e o "we are all weird", e o nós não queremos ser plancton.


Trecho inicial retirado de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino