Para reflectir acerca da incerteza

"uncertainty seems to be breaking out all over the place. Given the political earthquakes we’ve witnessed in the U.K. and the U.S., “you need to prepare yourself for several years of uncertainty,”
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It makes sense that uncertainty is the watchword of the day. Significant changes are afoot in the structures governing our economy
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But here’s the thing: Business has always been uncertain, even when it seemed predictable. The television financial pundit Jim Cramer likes to say that there’s always a bull market somewhere. The corollary is that there is always a bear market somewhere else. Industries are forever being born, and business models, worldviews, and understandings are continually under assault. It’s just that some of the companies facing sudden uncertainty today ... have become accustomed to relative stability in this current economic expansion, which dates to 2009.
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It’s a natural human tendency to want certainty, and to have a bias toward it. Imagine how difficult it would be to wake up each morning not being entirely sure that the enterprise is on the right path, or that your assumptions about how the world works are correct.
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But even when things seem certain — especially when they seem certain — they may not be. Events continually upset the conventional wisdom. Reading history, it’s often astonishing, in hindsight, how countries, companies, and people carried on as if everything were normal, certain in their path, until the moment they were swamped by a tidal wave whose formation was easily detectable ... lots of people would prefer to ignore prospective changes than to start preparing for them.
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One of the best ways to prepare for uncertainty is to accept that things are inherently less certain than we may have thought."

Trechos retirados de "Executives of an Uncertain Age"