"you are left with one choice"

"Is your business “playing to win” or "just playing to play"
...
He says good strategy starts with making the very difficult choices about what your business chooses to do and what it chooses not to do. These choices need to focus on how best to differentiate your business in a competitive marketplace.
.
Entrepreneurs often kick the can down the road on making these types of hard decisions because they fear that their strategic choices may be incorrect. Or the choices may negatively impact the bottom line, especially in the short run.
.
Your business cannot be all things to all people. If you don’t make choices on what markets you will serve, you won’t have an effective strategy. As Martin emphasized during his talk, “being the same as others or ‘just playing to play’ is a recipe for mediocrity.”
.
He believes it’s important to remember some business basics. Enterprises compete in one of two ways ­— either by being the cost leader, or by differentiating your product or service. Since a small business typically isn’t a cost leader in their industry, you are left with one choice."[Moi ici: Uma outra forma de dizer que a estratégia do custo não é para quem quer, é para quem pode]

Depois, o resto do texto é sobre a técnica de Roger Martin para avaliar estratégias.
.
E a sua empresa ... tem uma estratégia?


Trechos retirados de "Good small business strategy begins with hard choices"

E porque não somos plankton (parte VII)

E porque não somos plankton (parte VI)

"Understanding why Dollar Shave Club was cheap means understanding why its blades are cheap, and understanding that means understanding just how precarious the position of P&G specifically and incumbents generally are in the emerging Internet economy.
...
For their part, Unilever is fortunate they don’t have a shaving business to protect, because being an incumbent is going to increasingly be the worst place to be. Dollar Shave Club’s motto may be “Shave Money Shave Time,” but just how many shareholders and policy makers are prepared for the shaving of value that this acquisition suggests is coming sooner rather than later?"

Uma conclusão que espelha uma reflexão feita neste blogue há muitos anos. Mongo não é um lugar bom para os gigantes, Mongo não é um bom lugar para os incumbentes. Incumbentes rimam bem com mass-market e mal com tribos aguerridas.
.
Só em 2016, escrevemos:

• Mongo não é um mundo gigantes-friendly (parte III)
• Decididamente Mongo não é para gigantes
• Acerca do futuro dos gigantes
• Mongo é uma espécie de final Cretáceo para os gigantes
• Acerca de Mongo
• Isto é poesia para quem acredita na vantagem de Mongo para as PME

Qual o perigo para a Unilever? Recordar "Quando Golias compra um David"

Trechos retirados de "Dollar Shave Club and The Disruption of Everything"

Curiosidade do dia

Há dias escrevemos:

estes etnocêntricos estão mesmo a proíbir q a comunidade cigana de Estarreja deixe de poder usar carroças? https://t.co/2ysDs1Vo4h

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) July 15, 2016

Esta manhã num aldeia do concelho de Arganil vi alguns desses criminosos, segundo o PAN:

Parolos da cidade que não conhecem nem o país nem o que é a vida real.

Para reflexão

- É a vida!

Frase que pode ser proferida quando um incumbente bem gerido (em termos de exploitation) é "eliminado" do mercado por um disruptor.
.
E quando um incumbente mal gerido, como a CGD, por exemplo, está tão concentrado a tentar sobreviver às consequências dos erros passados, os exageros do tempo das vacas gordas, que nem se foca na disrupção em curso?

"European banks need to drastically transform their business models to become sustainably profitable and earn their costs of equity. This report raises serious questions about the sustainability of current banking business models and offers three innovative strategic options for what traditional banks could become: platform banks, digital banks, or OEM banks — streamlined banks that emulate original equipment manufacturers.
...
Our team recently studied 46 European banks and found that only 10 achieved a positive economic spread in 2015, thereby earning their costs of equity. The remaining banks in our study showed significant gaps in profitability. Overall, the European financial institutions we studied accumulated an earnings shortfall of €110 billion (US$125 billion).
...
Platform banks: [Moi ici: Proposta de valor - Serviço] This model would be marked by open infrastructures and the assimilation of products from competitors and financial technology companies into a bank’s own offerings. The core competencies of platform banks would include customer relationship management and the anticipation of client needs, along with the maintenance of open product infrastructures. Digital banks: [Moi ici: Proposta de valor - Inovação] This model is characterized by extensive digitization of customer service as well as all downstream and back-office processes. Inspired by the product development approach of emerging technology companies, digital banks would be in a position to rapidly and efficiently respond to changes in customer or regulatory demands. OEM banks: [Moi ici: Proposta de valor - Preço] This model, inspired by automakers, calls for lean banks distinguished by a low degree of vertical integration. The traditional value chain would be dissolved and efficiency maximized by the integration of external vendors. Although no traditional bank has yet made the full transition to any of these new models, there are signs that some institutions are moving in."

Trechos retirados de "Strategy & European Banking Outlook 2016: It's time to radically rethink business models"

Online conjugado com a economia das experiências (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Millennials prefer to spend their money on experiences, not the apparel that is Macy's bread and butter.
.
The younger generation does buy clothes, but when they do, it's often in the form of something quick, cheap, and fast.
.
And as Jason Dorsey, cofounder and millennials expert at The Center for Generational Kinetics, told Business Insider, they're so prone to spending money on experiences that they often rent clothes and jewelry, which is a death knell to apparel retailers.
...
Since experiences take a great share of young people's finite wallets, someone has to lose out.
...
" From a retailer perspective, the entire shopping experience literally needs to be an experience, not a commodity," Dorsey said. "This may seem obvious, but in practice it’s much harder to do, especially for department stores. For retailers integrating things like live music, exclusive events, digital gaming, and the unexpected — such as an impromptu fashion show — is what transforms retail shopping into an experience."
...
These experiences could be gourmet-food tastings on Saturday, film a YouTube TV show on-site and invite shoppers to participate, and even bring samples of brands or designs that they’re considering bringing in and let customers vote," Dorsey said.
,
"The key is to be unexpected and involve millennial shoppers — and the best part is it doesn’t even have to do with clothes, jewelry, cosmetics, housewares, or perfume. You could literally have a day where you’re showcasing local artisans in a common area and asking them to invite all their friends and vote for the winner. Getting department stores integrated into the community is what makes experiences take root and become something people look forward to and want to visit."
...
In February, retail expert Warren Shoulberg posited that putting restaurants in stores — a strategy that's older than 100 years — could potentially save the ailing American retail industry.
.
"Those first merchants of retailing knew what today’s generation is having to relearn: that retail stores are more than a place to buy stuff,"[Moi ici: Recordar "O poder do contexto" aqui é pôr a loja no contexto da sua utilização]
...
"There is no reason, however, they could not integrate more experience like beauty services, dining, fashion shows, etc. John Lewis department stores in the UK are model for this: they’ve teamed up with third party dining brands, invested in new in-store services and experiences and have thrived as a result," Saunders wrote. "What’s lacking from mainstream US department stores is any sense of imagination – and it shows on the shop floor!""

Trechos retirados de "Millennials only want to spend money on one thing — and it's killing Macy's"

"value pricing ... is about customizing an outcome for your client"

"Before you can change to value pricing, however, you must first understand the relationship between value and what you are selling,[Moi ici: O que vendemos é um recurso, um instrumento, uma ponte para chegar ao resultado pretendido]
...
remember that in any interaction or relationship with a client, there has also got to be a profit for the client. The total value you create then is your value and the client’s value together.
...
often the client doesn’t know fully what they value - what they want, in other words. Your role is to help them see what else they need, beyond their compliance requirements. You are opening the client’s mind, finding the things they care about, looking for triggers. This way you can increase the value you offer, and the price then just follows the value.
...
“Value changes, and it changes based on time, place, location and what outcome customers are seeking.” [Moi ici: Daí a importância das tribos e de fazer crescer o cliente, educar o cliente, integrá-lo numa constelação de relações, sinais, significados] In other words, value is related to the context of the situation at hand, and therefore, a focus on value provides the opportunity to drive pricing higher.
...
value pricing requires pricing the customer, and not just the service or product. With that in mind, you are intentionally slowing down the sales process to explore the customer’s wants, desires and outcomes (rather than just their needs) in order to sell an expectation of future results.
...
value pricing is not about efforts, hours and activities, but is about customizing an outcome for your client [Moi ici: Precioso!] while sharing risk to identify and agree on the real value for your services."

Trechos retirados de "Price Services More Effectively with Value Pricing"

 

Mongo e código na indústria química

A propósito de "Mais um exemplo de onde o "é meter código nisso" pode chegar, "Industry 4.0 and the chemicals industry":

"The initial momentum of Industry 4.0 in the chemicals industry is primarily at the level of business operations, mainly due to the abundance of historical sensor data collected by chemicals companies over the years.8 The long-term potential for business growth applications promises to be equally, if not more, transformational, but those applications take time to develop.
...

...

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "Afinal, a bonificação no ISP não chega a todas as empresas" e "Quem pode ter bonificação no ISP?", este ponto de partida:

É preciso afinar um pouco a coisa mas o principal está lá.

Mongo e a autencidade da imperfeição

"Humanity is our ultimate competitive advantage" via @Oxford_Review @gapingvoid pic.twitter.com/sAxkcgc840

— Helen Bevan (@helenbevan) July 17, 2016

Relacionar com:

• Acerca da automatização dos postos de trabalho (Março de 2015)
• "Pensado e fabricado por humanos, de carne e osso" (Janeiro de 2015)

Relacionar com "Perfectly imperfect & the art of making a connection":

"To be human is to be imperfect. Yes, we expect absolute perfection and precision when it comes to things like airplanes, automobiles, or the engineering behind the bridge we drive across everyday. And people naturally assume that the products they purchase will perform to at least the standard advertised. But with aspects of life that require a degree of human expressiveness, absolute perfection is not only impossible to produce, it usually would not lead to better results even if it were.
...
people prefer listening to the sound of a human playing a musical piece—even though the human-created version had tiny errors—over that of a computer perfectly playing the same piece.
...
When it's live, stuff happens. That's life. Relax, you are only human. If Sir Paul can make mistakes, you can too. Besides, people do not want your perfection, they yearn to see your humanity."

Ofertas antigas e mercados novos

"In The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen explains how incumbents actually pay a high price for actually doing a great job and constantly improving their technological offerings and creating overserved consumers.
...
Nonetheless, entrepreneurs looking to create a disruptive new business should not overlook underleveraged old technologies that just need a new use, and a new business model, to remain valuable.
...
Importantly, note how the basis of competition for Piql is functionality and reliability, not convenience or affordability. In this, Piql might look more like what today’s incumbents looked like when they started rather than a classical disruptor. Disruptors often do compete on convenience and affordability — the more affordable steel produced by minimills, for example, or the more convenient movie-delivery method of Netflix. Convenience and affordability are both important elements of disruption in existing markets where some customers are over-served, or you are trying to expand to non-consumers.
.
But to create new markets, disruptive entrepreneurs often overlook the possibility of emphasizing a different criteria. New-market disruptions go much further than incorporating non-consumers into an industry. They actually create a new nascent industry where before there was nothing, or just a few offerings that did not do the job very well. [Moi ici: Não consigo deixar de recordar o exemplo da artesã de Bragança, ou o denim japonês, ou o burel de Manteigas, ou ... ] And in this case, the basis of competition mostly favor functionality and reliability – these are usually the attributes of old technologies."

Recordar:

• Subir na escala da abstracção (parte II) (Dezembro de 2015)
• Autenticidade e empreendedorismo (Setembro de 2015)
• O que me fascina é a mudança (Maio de 2015)
• Não mudar de produto, mudar de mercado. Um exemplo (Fevereiro de 2015)
• Mais um exemplo positivo (Novembro de 2014)
• Mudar de prateleira, mudar de mercado, mudar de significado (Junho de 2014)
• A ironia da derrota do eficientismo (Abril de 2014)
• Outro exemplo de decomoditização (Janeiro de 2014)
• É exactamente o mesmo desafio da artesã (Dezembro de 2013)
• Uma perspectiva interessante (Fevereiro de 2013)
• Pós-geografia (Fevereiro de 2013)

Trechos retirados de "When Old Technologies Create New Industries"

Só os monopólios informais permitem "pricing power" genuíno

"“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,” Buffett told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last week. “If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”
...
“If you have a really dominant position you can survive for quite a long time with bad management but eventually it will catch up to you,” [Moi ici: Como não pensar logo na PT ou no BES] said Hermalin. “In the short run I would agree with Buffett but in the longer-run perspective there is something to be said for having a good manager.”

Retirando os abomináveis casos dos monopólios formais, estatais ou protegidos pelos estados, só os monopólios informais, baseados na concorrência imperfeita, permitem "pricing power" genuíno: o Evangelho do Valor!

Trechos retirados de "Buffett Says Pricing Power More Important Than Good Management"

Outro exemplo de subida na escala de valor

"When Cabot Hosiery launched in Northfield in 1978, it brought new life and new jobs to an area that, 100 years earlier, had thrived on sheep herding and woolen mills. In the early 2000s, Cabot, too, was expiring when the founder's son, Ric Cabot, stepped up with an idea. Formerly a private-label supplier for big fashion brands, the family business would itself become a brand--one that stood for performance, American manufacturing, and quality so high the company would back it with a lifetime guarantee.
.
"I came up with the name Darn Tough because I thought we were darn tough if we could survive," says Ric Cabot. (The name is also, of course, an elegant pun.)
.
Darn Tough has done more than just survive. It has demonstrated the appeal of small-state manufacturing and consumers' willingness to pay more for domestically produced goods. [Moi ici: A conjugação da autenticidade com o desempenho. Acredito que é uma dupla capaz de milagres, criadora de "You're talking about complementarities to the bottle of wine ... each and every product should link to something that complements it ... experiences, stories."] The $40 million business sells nearly 5 million pairs of socks a year. Hikers, bikers, skiers, and, yes, hunters buy them. So does every branch of the military services. "You can't pay for that kind of advertising," says Marc Cabot, Ric's father and the founder of Cabot. "Our brand has become a cult brand."
...
Sherman, who personally owns 40 pairs, says his customers like Darn Tough's fit and durability. They also appreciate the company story. "In addition to being an amazing product, it was made in Vermont," he says. "That is something that Vermonters want to hear."
...
If you wore brand-name socks in the '80s and '90s, they may have come from Cabot. The company private-labeled for Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, Talbot's, Brooks Brothers, Polo, and others.
...
"Then came the offshoring thing," says Ric. "The giant sucking sound that people are still talking about in politics today."
.
Cabot's biggest customers pulled out of their contracts. The work force dwindled to 30 or 35 as production dropped from five days a week to three.[Moi ici: Ainda no Domingo escrevi com pasmo acerca da explicação das elites sobre o encolhimento das fábricas, Ainda agora abano a cabeça de incredulidade e penso que é esta gente que negoceia com os governos. MEDO!!!]
...
"From the hottest of fires," says Ric, "comes the strongest of steels."
.
The Cabots decided it was time to step out of from the private-label shadows and become a brand themselves. They had the facility. They had the skill. Perhaps more importantly, they had a story: third-generation sock makers operating in rugged Vermont. They designed a merino-wool sock with form-fitting toe box and sculpted heel, and made it with a very high stitch count, which creates density without bulk. Ric envisioned the market to be outdoor enthusiasts--"somebody that demands a lot of their gear."
.
In 2004, Ric begged an audience with a retailer in Montpelier, 10 miles away. Filling a backpack with the first Darn Tough product, a running sock, he persuaded the owner to let him set up a rack in the store. He also donated 3,500 pairs to the Vermont City Marathon, an annual event held in Burlington, for inclusion in swag bags. That was the start of demand from local businesses like Outdoor Gear Exchange.
.
Borrowing a page from such respected brands as L.L. Bean and Land's End, the Cabots reinforced the quality message with a lifetime warranty. The warranty also acclimates buyers to the price. A 12-pack of Chinese-made tube socks cost less than $12, but many pairs won't last the year. With Darn Tough, "you can make the argument that if I buy one pair of socks at $20, I will never have to buy that style of sock again," [Moi ici: Como não recordar outra vez o exemplo dos sapatos que não se vendiam a 20€ e passaram a vender a 230€.] says Ric. (He calls the percentage of returns "tiny.")"

Trechos retirados de "How This Vermont Sock Company Became a $40 Million Business in a Town of 3,000"

Curiosidade do dia

Depois de passar uma legislatura a exigir mais investimento público, agora, no governo, PS baixa o investimento público.

os reis do spin https://t.co/H8ZTBNvzBQ versus o real https://t.co/zSDyFRrVYg

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) July 16, 2016

Depois de passar uma legislatura a exigir menos austeridade, agora temos a austeridade boa "Governo promete a Bruxelas mais austeridade para 2017".

Lucro e preço

"Pricing plays a huge part in profit growth.[Moi ici: A essência do Evangelho do Valor]
...
Fortunately, small to mid-size companies can maneuver their businesses into a profitable position by just following the fundamentals. You can start with these seven basic rules of a profitable pricing strategy.
.
1. Avoid the Tired Cost-Plus Pricing Formula...
2. Understand and Leverage What Your Customers Value.
Your offering is not a commodity. It doesn’t matter what you sell. You should never believe it’s a commodity. If you do, your ability to sell on value is lost. Once that’s lost, your ability to turn a profit is also lost.
.
Work with customers to determine why they choose to do business with your company.
...
Once you can articulate and quantify value increases, you have a much stronger foundation for asking for a proportional price increase and defending your existing pricing in the face of competitive pressures.
...
3. Implement Price Increases Slowly...
5. Segment Your Way to Pricing Success.
Your customers, product lines, and market areas are all different. They should have equally unique prices to achieve their maximum profitability.
.
Some companies seeking simplicity within their pricing strategy apply a “peanut butter” approach. This applies the same pricing to all customers or all products. It’s easy, but it rarely works. Businesses often end up falling short of their margin potential by neglecting to set higher prices for some customers as well as losing customers who seek a lower price.
.
Some companies customize pricing by customers but not by buying situations. This strategy still falls short, because every customer values every buying situation in a unique way.
...
6. Discount Responsibly...
7. Analyze, Adjust, Repeat.
The best way to build a successful pricing strategy is to keep a close eye on it and its effects on margins. Then tweak prices as needed to increase success and profitability in the long run."

Trechos retirados de "7 Fundamental Rules of a Profitable Pricing Strategy"

Online conjugado com a economia das experiências (parte II)

Há dias escrevi aqui no blogue este postal, "Online conjugado com a economia das experiências", acerca do efeito conjunto da evolução das vendas online e da procura de experiências na população de lojas dos centros comerciais.
.
Entretanto, um outro artigo desperta-me para uma outra evolução em curso, "When Did Shipping Boxes Get Pretty?". A embalagem que envolve a oferta torna-se mais do que um item com uma finalidade tangível e racional e converte-se num componente da experiência:

"Stylized shipping boxes are designed to stand out, while ironically becoming the new norm. Aritzia, Birchbox, Matchesfashion, Urban Outfitters, and countless more have equally trumpeting e-comm deliveries, with custom colored boxes, oversized brand logos, and interior surprises (if you look closely, there is a tiny swimmer at the bottom of Warby Parker's pool-inspired Home Try-On box). Net-a-Porter's black box, tied with a grosgrain ribbon, is so indicative of the luxe goods inside that it offers a downgraded option at checkout, a discreet brown box that doesn't exclaim "Miu Miu platforms enclosed!" Even Amazon has a signature black tape distinguishing its shipments.
...
Voicey cardboard boxes, custom-color bubble wrap, and printed packing tape are the online answer to the status-symbol shopping bag, elevated in-store gift wrapping, and iconic product boxes à la Hermès (dating back to the 1950s) and Tiffany & Co. (1837). As much as ever before, customers feel good, affirmed, and proud of a purchase that comes in a vessel that feels special.
...
The stakes are even higher, and the reward even greater, for an online-only company like Glossier, where the shipping box is a customer's first physical contact with the brand. Before a shopper can get to the actual thing they paid for — and likely have never seen in the flesh — they'll work through tape, tissue, bubble wrap, an itemized receipt, and protective sleeves. These prosaic necessities ensure the purchase arrives in fine condition, but they can also be a vehicle for the brand to express its identity."

 Este ano tive oportunidade de trabalhar com a empresa de caixas relatada no final de "Acerca da subida na escala de valor em negócios B2B". Pode ser uma oportunidade interessante, para subir na escala de valor

E se acontecer uma quarta vinda do FMI ...

"In my view, the future is built out of three pieces. It’s what comes from the past—existing trends and established commitments. It’s what comes from the future—new business models, new technologies, or new value systems. And it’s the decisions we make today.
.
Whether it’s a country, a business, or an individual looking at family and career, foresight is a means to be adaptable and robust in the face of scenarios that might knock you off a path to success. [Moi ici: Fragilista é acreditar que os astros se vão alinhar para nos servir. Treta da grande!] And it’s a means to identify new models that might be opportunities to deliver new value.
...
It’s also very important that the process is neutral, in the sense that you need to be able to look at all possible scenarios, whether you like them or not. A neutral, independent platform, process, and research effort is extremely important for putting issues on the table that, sometimes, people have difficulties talking about because their implications might be scary or uncomfortable.
...
You need to open people up enough that they can be comfortable with the uncomfortable. They have to learn to make decisions under uncertainty."

E se acontecer uma quarta vinda do FMI, a sua empresa vai estar preparada?

Trechos retirados de "How Do You Plan for Uncertainty?"

É preciso ter uma lata!!!

"“Fénix Renascida: os novos sectores do têxtil e do calçado” foi o tema que juntou ontem, no Laboratório da Paisagem, empresários e actores da indústria têxtil, do vestuário e de calçado. Passado, presente e futuro foram discutidos nesta conferência sob a égide da Vida Económica, onde estas actividades económicas, consideradas tradicionais, mostraram que têm estratégia para continuar a crescer e a expandir-se no mundo inteiro.
...
o sector têxtil ultrapassou a crise da abertura dos mercados, nomeadamente a ameaça da China na primeira década deste século, a recessão económica mundial em 2008 e a crise das finanças públicas em Portugal em 2011 e está atualmente no bom caminho para atingir um recorde nas exportações. «Este ano estamos convencidos que vamos ultrapassar os 5 mil milhões de euros de exportação», afirmou Paulo Vaz, diretor-geral da ATP – Associação Têxtil e Vestuário de Portugal, sublinhando ainda que o feito se torna mais relevante por haver menos empresas no sector. «Hoje, a indústria têxtil e vestuário exporta quase 80% do que produz face a 65% em 2008», apontou Paulo Vaz."

Para uns lisboetas - enquanto esta gente anónima faz pela vida, cria riqueza e emprego, exporta e sobe na escala de valor - Portugal vive tempo perdido.
.
É preciso ter uma lata!!!

Trechos retirados de "Renascer das cinzas"

Curiosidade do dia

O compromisso para o défice em 2017 é de 1,4%.
.
"​Jerónimo não quer "fazer a cama" ao Governo mas não se compromete com orçamento"
.
O que é que chega primeiro, o OE2017 ou as autárquicas de 2017?

Mas a geringonça chega até às eleições autárquicas? o q é q vem primeiro, o OE17 ou as autárquicas? Tenham juízo.

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) April 3, 2016

A seguir a Agosto as coisas vão acelerar, o OE2017 tem de ser apresentado ao parlamento em Outubro, entretanto a UE há-de começar a querer saber a estrutura do mesmo.

Do mobiliário para as elites que nos pastoreiam

Tenho sempre dupla precaução em relação ao que diz Daniel Bessa. No entanto, dessa vez em 2005 estávamos em sintonia:

"Se tudo correr bem", para a economia, "o desemprego vai subir."

Recordar o exemplo do calçado: "Por que é que calçado e têxtil têm tido desempenhos tão diferentes?".
.
Recordar o exemplo do têxtil e vestuário: "Iliteracia estratégica nos jornais"

Recordar o exemplo do mobiliário: "O exemplo do mobiliário". Acerca do mobiliário recordar também:

• A saga continua! (Julho de 2016)
• Um dos três exemplos (Junho de 2015) 
• O exemplo do mobiliário (Março de 2013) 

Por isso, tudo em sintonia com estes números:

"Em 10 anos, o sector de mobiliário para o lar perdeu mais de 2000 empresas, segundo um estudo da Informa D&B divulgado esta quinta-feira.
.
Em 2015, a indústria registava 3850 empresas em atividade (22145 assalariados), um universo que compara com 6000 fabricantes em 2004."

Havia quem interpretasse a previsão de Daniel Bessa desta maneira:

"Segundo aquele dirigente patronal, esta subida [dos salários] estará ainda relacionada com a modernização tecnológica na indústria e com a escassez de mão-de-obra especializada, o que obriga a pagar melhor aos trabalhadores especializados. De acordo com Van Zeller, este processo traduz o início da transição de uma economia baseada na mão-de-obra pouco qualificada para uma mais especializada. «É um processo que já aconteceu noutros países, é positivo, mas tem como contraponto o aumento do desemprego». Para não perderem competitividade, «as empresas emagrecem para compensar os custos salariais e o desemprego aumenta», [Moi ici: Completamente ao lado, completamente absurdo. Quase diria ... infantil!!! As empresas não encolheram porque os salários subiram!!! As empresas encolheram porque tiveram de mudar de estratégia. Recordar "Há 12 anos éramos 500 pessoas e tínhamos cinco clientes activos. Hoje somos 160 e temos mil clientes activos". A figura abaixo remete-nos para ""despedir é sempre resultado de uma maldade ou de preguiça da gestão"". Como é possível pensar que se mantém a estratégia quando entra uma China no jogo... e é isto o pensamento das elites iluminadas que nos pastoreiam. Bem podiam recordar o exemplo dos sapatos que não se vendiam a 20€ e passaram a vender a 230€. Não são os mesmos sapatos, não são os mesmos clientes, não é o mesmo modelo de negócio] explica. «É nesse sentido que Daniel Bessa diz que, se tudo correr bem, o desemprego vai subir»" 

Trecho retirado de "Mobiliário. Em 10 anos desapareceram mais de 2000 empresas"

Subir na escala de valor

No país onde "Japan flirts with helicopter money", acontece isto:

"Balmuda, a small appliance maker based in Tokyo's suburbs, has taken an ordinary kitchen appliance—the toaster—and turned it into a high-tech gadget. Using steam and carefully calibrated heat cycles, it transforms store-bought bread into something that smells, tastes and feels like it popped out of a baker's oven.
.
The toaster costs 24,000 yen ($230), or almost five times the price of a regular device in Japan [Moi ici: A isto é que se pode chamar o subir na escala de valor. A isto é que se chama concorrência imperfeita e um monopólio informal.] (the smaller appliances with doors and trays are the norm here, rather than the pop-up variety). With at least a three-month wait in stores, the gadget has become a quiet hit, even though the manufacturer hasn't bought ads or aired any commercials since it debuted in June—an unusual glimmer of innovation in a country that once wooed consumers with Walkmans, digital cameras and flat-panel TVs.

...
[Moi ici: Outra vez a disrupção? Agora a servir os underserved, ou os overserved? Talvez esta categorização aqui não funcione tão facilmente] "Consumers are embracing gadgets that do one thing well," said Hiromi Yamaguchi, an analyst at Euromonitor in Tokyo. "Larger appliance makers are selling products with too many functions, and not a lot of people use them."[Moi ici: "too many functions" parece significar overserved. No entanto, a substituição é não por um produto inferior que faz bem uma coisa, mas por um produto superior que faz bem uma coisa, e isso é "underserved"]

Interessante como tudo começou através do acaso, da exploration motivada por um piquenique afectado pela chuva.
.
Trechos retirados de "Meet Balmuda, the $230 Toaster From Japan"