Conseguem imaginar os job-to-be-done? (parte II)

"Implante no cérebro permite que tetraplégico volte a jogar Guitar Hero"
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"This Could Be the Wheelchair of the Future"
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Recordar "Conseguem imaginar os job-to-be-done?"
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O impacte potencial da internet das coisas, do código, na vida destas pessoas...

Um exemplo concreto e ao vivo do "é meter código nisso!"

Um exemplo concreto e ao vivo do que aqui se recomenda com frequência: "é meter código nisso!"
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Pegar num produto e transformá-lo numa plataforma.
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Criar um mercado para que programadores desenvolvam aplicações e serviços associados a esse produto.
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Criar parcerias com outros produtores para que queiram fazer parte da plataforma numa relação ganhar-ganhar-ganhar.
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Ver "GoPro Launches Developer Program":

"GoPro announced the public launch of its developer program.
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The initiative, which was quietly rolled out with a few partners a year ago, is aimed at offering official support of third-party companies that want to build products with seamless GoPro integration.
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First is having their mobile apps connect directly with GoPro cameras,
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Second is the ability for developers to build devices that can connect with GoPro cameras either physically or wirelessly
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Finally, third parties will be able to build mounting and housing products that specifically meet GoPro specifications,
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To date, 100 companies have joined the developer program.
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And GoPro’s initiative is launching with a certification program called Works with GoPro that offers third-party companies integrated marketing help and an official logo."

E à sua escala, como é que a sua PME pode começar algo deste tipo? Espero que os fabricantes de máquinas, por exemplo, estejam nesta onda.

Riscos, factores externos e ISO 9001

A ISO 9001:2015 propõe a abordagem baseada no risco e define risco como sendo o efeito da incerteza num resultado esperado. Na abordagem baseada no risco a ISO propõe-nos que determinemos os riscos associados a cada processo.
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Numa outra cláusula, a ISO 9001:2015, propõe que as empresas façam uma avaliação do contexto em que estão inseridas, determinando factores externos que a possam afectar.
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Na infografia que se segue usa-se a terminologia de risco, no entanto, à luz da ISO 9001:2015, aqueles riscos são factores externos:

No extremo direito de cada figura encontra-se uma tipificação que pode facilmente relacionar-se com a análise PESTEL.

A realidade é muito mais complexa

Há aquela frase: há sempre uma solução rápida, bonita, pacífica e... errada!
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Muitas vezes as empresas arranjam uma resposta desse tipo para evitar ir ao fundo de uma questão. Por exemplo: por que é que as vendas baixaram?
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- Ah! É a crise!
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Entretanto, agora apanho "Setor do café duplica faturação em Portugal":

"Entre 2009 e 2015, o setor do café duplicou a faturação em Portugal, para 257 milhões de euros."

Ou seja, no auge da crise, nos anos mais negros da troika, nos anos de chumbo da austeridade o sector do café duplicou a facturação em Portugal.
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Recordar os exemplos, durante esses anos:

• da Bimby - "O mercado interno não está morto"; "O morto mercado interno"; 
• da Tupperware - "Outro exemplo, outra lição"
• do café - "Aumentar a produtividade? Façam as contas!"; "Num ano de crise"

A realidade é muito mais complexa do que a prevista pelos modelos económicos povoados por econs.

Recordar “Commodities only exist in the minds of the inept"

Curiosidade do dia

"O perfil médio de escolaridade dos portugueses adultos é “bastante baixo” quando comparado com o dos restantes países da Europa e mesmo assim os que procuram melhorar qualificações são uma minoria, indica um estudo que é divulgado, esta quarta-feira, em Lisboa.
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Das conclusões salienta-se que só uma minoria dos entrevistados procura melhorar as qualificações ao longo da vida, sendo os mais escolarizados os que também mais procuram aumentar o nível na educação."

Sugestão: nas próximas novelas, em vez de temas fracturantes, incluam estórias de vida com exemplos de pessoas que procuram melhorar as qualificações e acabam recompensadas pela vida. É capaz de fazer mais efeito do que muita conversa da treta.

Trechos retirados de "Portugueses com nível baixo de escolaridade e pouca vontade de melhorar"

"Don’t let algorithms replace leadership"

"True markets create maximum efficiency; they offer buyers the lowest price and sellers the greatest demand , but they also slash search costs for everyone in the process. And that’s really the point of markets: efficiency gains for all.
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Make it a network, not just a market. Markets aren’t always the right answer. They work best for interchangeable commodities — soybeans, bonds, car rides. When it comes to hiring an accountant, lawyer, or doctor, price competition probably isn’t the only factor, because high-value services aren’t commodities. So in these industries, don’t build markets. Build networks, ones where people can compare and contrast similar, but not the same , services along multiple dimensions of quality.
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Create relationships. The best and most enduring way of minimizing risk is also the oldest and simplest one: Do business with people you’ve come to trust. ... So the most prosperous and viable micromarkets will probably be those that can leverage natural social dynamics to manage risk, lower search costs, and create a better deal for everyone. Relationships beat transactions every time; they’re simply more economical.
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Don’t let algorithms replace leadership. In the brave new world of micromarkets, the algorithm is the boss. It issues the orders, tracks performance, and guarantees delivery, quality, and reliability. But let’s admit it: Algorithms don’t make very good bosses.
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When an algorithm’s been programmed for brutal efficiency, it’s the job of the wise leader to know when efficiency’s not the right goal. We often think that algorithms can replace leaders. But the truth is the opposite. Algorithms make leaders more necessary. Micromarkets need leaders who can make sure that the algorithm is not only a machine that grinds up human potential  but also a ladder that offers people ways up.
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And that’s exactly where micromarkets are most failing today."

Trechos retirados de "To Manage a Platform, Think of It as a Micromarket"

Mais um exemplo de onde o "é meter código nisso" pode chegar

"The small private company in New Hampshire has climbed steadily up the economic ladder of its industry to produce specialized fabrics that weave in ceramics, metals and fiberglass. These high-value fabrics are used in products like safety gloves for industrial workers and body armor for the police and military.
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"These would be high-tech offerings that change the game for the companies involved and for the industry,"
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The advanced fabrics project, which is being announced on Friday, represents a new frontier for the Internet of Things. The term describes putting sensors and computing in all manner of physical objects — jet engines, power generators, cars, farm equipment and thermostats, among others — to measure and monitor everything from machines in need of repair to traffic patterns. [Moi ici: E recuo a 1990 e às primeiras experiências de manutenção condicionada que vi serem feitas na indústria. E recordo que há tempos fiz este esquema para um projecto:

Queríamos saber o perfil de utilização de uma máquina que era o gargalo da produção. Com a IoT isto será imediato]
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 The products of this emerging field are being called "functional fabrics," "connected fabrics," "textile devices" and "smart garments."
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Clothes filled with sensors and chips could give new meaning to the term wearables,
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"This is about reimagining what a fabric is, and rebirthing textiles into a high-tech industry,"
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For some companies, the functional fabrics are a potential add-on market. For others, they could disrupt their businesses.
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Until about two years ago, VF did not really have a R&D operation, said Marty Lawrence, a general manager for innovation. Instead, it mainly tapped research efforts at universities and by its suppliers.
But eying trends in the industry and technology, VF has hired scientists and set up four innovation centers in the United States that focus on areas including new fabrics for bluejeans and cognitive science.
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The functional fabrics project, Mr. Lawrence said, represents "the future of apparel.""

Tem a certeza que a sua empresa não tem de se antecipar e testar oportunidades neste campeonato?

Trechos retirados de "U.S. Textile Industry Turns to Tech as Gateway to Revival"

O papel da estratégia

"more than half of senior executives don’t think they have winning strategies.
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Another survey of 500-plus senior executives found 90% believed they were missing major market opportunities, and 80% said company strategies were not well understood internally.[Moi ici: Papel fundamental para um mapa da estratégia: poderosa ferramenta visual de comunicação]
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Instead of focusing outside on areas to grow or markets to seize, a company should look to its core and ask:
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“Who are we going to be? What few capabilities do we have that nobody else has?”
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 “Shape the future rather than respond to it.”" [Moi ici: Locus de controlo no interior, aposta na concorrência imperfeita]

Trechos retirados de "Successful Companies Strategize To Rise, Become Super Competitors"

Os que fazem a diferença

E a sua empresa, que indicadores usa? Que metas usa? Que monitorização faz? Que seriedade e exigência põe nisto?

"In a survey, they asked businesses whether they employed management essentials such as targets, incentives, and monitoring. Firms that did do these things, they found, were more productive and more likely to endure.
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Overall, we learned three things. First, according to our criteria, many organizations throughout the world are very badly managed. Well-run companies set stretch targets on productivity and other parameters, base the compensation and promotions they offer on meeting those targets, and constantly measure results — but many firms do none of those things. Second, our indicators of better management and superior performance are strongly correlated with measures such as productivity, return on capital employed, and firm survival. Indeed, a one-point increment in a five-point management score that we created — the equivalent of going from the bottom third to the top third of the group — was associated with 23% greater productivity. Third, management makes a difference in shaping national performance. Our analysis shows, for example, that variation in management accounts for nearly a quarter of the roughly 30% productivity gap between the U.S. and Europe.
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Taken together, better workers and better managers explain between a quarter and half of the link between good management and productivity that the researchers established in earlier work.
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The paper can’t prove that good managers cause good management, but it seems likely that they do. “I think it probably runs in both directions,” Van Reenen said of the causal relationship, noting that wellmanaged firms are better positioned to attract good managers and that “better managers are more likely to get their firms to adopt best practices.”"

Locus de controlo no interior!!!

Trechos retirados de "Proof That Good Managers Really Do Make a Difference"

Curiosidade do dia

"A economia portuguesa encontra-se num compasso de espera que se manifesta num adiamento da recuperação do investimento"

Num compasso de espera que começou em Outubro de 2015.

"A confirmarem-se estas previsões, a economia portuguesa continuará num ritmo de abrandamento, que já se observou no segundo semestre do ano passado."

Lembram-se do "acelerou"?

O país a entrar pelo cano. Mais uma previsão de que o país está a entrar pelo cano, enquanto os pirómanos brincam com isqueiros no armazém de pneus e no depósito do fogo de artifício.
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Pena que os portugueses, quando a austeridade acelerar, não reconheçam que o verdadeiro culpado pela degradação económica do país não é o malabarista-ignorante Costa mas aquele que vêem quando se olham ao espelho.
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Triste porque aquela previsão de 2008 continua alive and kicking!

Quem?

"O aumento das importações de produtos lácteos no início de 2016 está a preocupar a indústria de laticínios que estima um défice superior a 250 milhões de euros no final do ano, se a tendência se mantiver.
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Os últimos dados do INE referentes ao valor acumulado de fevereiro, citados pela Associação Nacional dos Industriais de Laticínios (ANIL), revelam uma subida de 2,8% das importações e uma queda de 25,7% das exportações, em valor."

Quem é que tem de vender?
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Quem é que tem de ir à procura de clientes?
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Quem é que tem de desenvolver novos produtos que seduzam novos mercados e novos clientes?

""Estamos perante regras que não são justas, porque Espanha conseguiu - não sabemos como -- que toda a distribuição aderisse à produção nacional. Estamos perante situações de desequilíbrio comercial que nos afetam","

Não sabemos como?
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Quem é que tem de saber?
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Quem é que tem de seduzir a distribuição nacional?

Trechos retirados de "Indústria do leite alerta para aumento das importações e estima défice superior a 250 milhões de euros"

Acerca da criação de valor

"Value Creation is less about products and solutions, and more about customer centricity, customer experience, people, and relationships.
Value Creation is not about a specific business case — our value propositions may focus on a specific decision and business case for our solutions.  Value Creation is about how we sustain value over the life-cycle of our relationship with the customer.
Value Creation is not about a transaction—but about 100’s and 1000’s of interactions that create meaning for our customers—as enterprises and individuals.
Value Creation can never be reduced to price—but it’s about the importance–or value–we bring in a long term relationship.  It becomes inconceivable to all parties not to have this relationship—the costs are too high."

Trechos retirados de "Your Value Proposition Is No Longer Sufficient"

PME e código, já pensou nisso? (parte II)

Parte I.

"First came steam and water power; then electricity and assembly lines; then computerization… So what comes next?
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Some call it the fourth industrial revolution, or industry 4.0, but whatever you call it, it represents the combination of cyber-physical systems, the Internet of Things, and the Internet of Systems.
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there are also grave potential risks. Schwab outlines his concerns that organizations could be unable or unwilling to adapt to these new technologies
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It seems a safe bet to say, then, that our current political, business, and social structures may not be ready or capable of absorbing all the changes a fourth industrial revolution would bring, and that major changes to the very structure of our society may be inevitable.
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In order to thrive, business leaders will have to actively work to expand their thinking away from what has been traditionally done, and include ideas and systems that may never have been considered. Business leaders must begin questioning everything, from rethinking their strategies and business models, to discovering the right investments in training and potentially disruptive R&D investments."

Trechos retirados de "Why Everyone Must Get Ready For The 4th Industrial Revolution".

Quando é que um sistema de gestão da qualidade começa a ser útil mesmo?

Num projecto ISO 9001 em mãos, o começo da monitorização da produção permitiu, ao fim de dois meses, criar este Pareto dos defeitos:

De entre um universo de 20 potenciais motivos de defeito, apenas 2 motivos representam mais de 60% das ocorrências de não-conformidade.
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Quando é que um sistema de gestão da qualidade começa a ser útil mesmo?
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Quando fornece matéria-prima para o double-loop learning.

Curiosidade do dia

"Uma economia que não cresce por um período muito longo, despesas com políticas públicas que crescem mais do que as receitas fiscais, endividamento que cresce mais do que o produto interno bruto, são indicadores suficientes para se proceder a uma revisão crítica do que têm sido as opções políticas adoptadas durante este período longo de estagnação e de endividamento. Mas não é isso o que se verifica. Quanto maior e mais persistente é o desvio entre o prometido e o realizado, mais se insiste na repetição das promessas do passado, mantendo o erro à espera que ele se transforme em virtude."

Conjugar com:

Only when we admit we have made a mistake can we make a mistake a part of our past.

— Greg McKeown (@GregoryMcKeown) April 12, 2016

Trecho retirado de "Democracia e demagogia"

É isto que os humanos têm de procurar em Mongo!

É isto que os humanos têm de procurar em Mongo!

There is going to be two kinds of value: emergent value created in interaction by human beings and algorithmic value created by machines

— Esko Kilpi (@EskoKilpi) April 11, 2016

Non-algorithmic! Created in complex, context specific interaction, meaning that it is not repeatable, perhaps? :-) https://t.co/lankt62mQY

— Esko Kilpi (@EskoKilpi) April 11, 2016

"The strategic logic is temporal rather than spatial. When following a spatial metaphor, there is a territory that can be explored and understood by the leaders, but in the temporal logic the territory is seen as being under continuous development and formation by the exploration itself. “It is impossible to map an area that changes with every step the explorer takes.”
People inhabit a complex world of emergence, uncertainty and continuous change. Corporate life is improvising and learning together. It is an ongoing continuous exploration, a movement that is open-ended and always incomplete."

Trecho retirado de "Network leadership"

Para calar os geradores de cortisol

Conhecem a metáfora de Mongo aqui no blogue, acerca do advento do Estranhistão, acerca do advento da democratização da produção, acerca do bailado entre tribos cada vez mais numerosas, diferenciadas e a não quererem ser tratadas como plankton e, empresas ou particulares cada vez mais concentrados em as servir.
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Interessante perceber que apesar do século XX ter sido o século do Normalistão e do eficientismo, ainda assim:

"Shares in smaller companies came out on top. Investing £1 in 1955 in the Numis 1000 index, which represents the smallest UK-listed companies, would have produced £12,144 by the end of last year. The same £1 invested in the FTSE All Share would have grown to just £829.
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Most investors will not have a 60-year time horizon. But even over more realistic holding periods, smaller shares still shine. Over 10-year periods, smaller firms outperformed larger ones five times out of six."

E, recordando esta figura:

Este trecho:

"Small firms generally carry higher risks for investors than the big blue-chip firms in the FTSE 100 index."

E para um blogue que aposta nas idiossincrasias como este, o que se segue é poesia:

"“At times when economic growth is weak, which I think will remain the case in the coming years, smaller companies considerably outperform larger companies,” Mr Williams said. “This is because the growth potential of a smaller company tends to be more closely linked with factors specific to the individual company rather than economic trends.”"

Por isso, o conselho de fazer como Ulisses mandou os seus marinheiros fazerem, pôr cera nos ouvidos e não ouvir os geradores de cortisol que encharcam os media.

Trechos retirados de "In numbers: how tiny companies have outperformed the giants over six decades"

PME e código, já pensou nisso?

Acredito, com cada vez mais força, que as PME deviam levar a sério, muito a sério mesmo, o mote "é meter código nisso".

"To leverage such strategic opportunities, firms need to recognize a new concept: demand-side interdependencies. Demand-side interdependencies arise after the consumer procures the product. For the traditional or Industrial Age thermostat, for example, such interdependencies would include an appropriate wiring and the availability of electricity. But as the traditional thermostat has transitioned into a smart one, it has also become a sensor for collecting information and a focal point for communication across room occupants and an array of other smart devices. As a result, much more than just electrical wiring and power supply now contribute to its demand-side interdependencies.
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Traditionally, demand-side interdependencies were largely left for the customers to arrange for and manage. After all, such demand-side interdependencies were few and largely stable in the industrial age.
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Firms that are able to pioneer initiatives for recognizing, tracking, and influencing such new demand-side interdependencies can expand their frontiers of customization.
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Identify and develop demand-side interdependencies: Companies should begin to consider the products/services that they have built inside, for possible extensions by third parties. By adding APIs to data and services, firms can avail opportunities to invite the attention of complementors who could expand the ways in which the products and services are used in conjunction with other products and services on an ongoing basis. This will allow them expand their product and service offerings through more and more customized options."

Representa uma mudança de paradigma, não basta produzir, não basta "vomitar" unidades, é precisar pensar no uso, é preciso pensar na experiência, é preciso pensar no resultado pretendido com o uso, é preciso pensar no contexto do uso.

Trechos retirados de "Mass Customization and the Do-It-Yourself Supply Chain"

Acerca do que é uma teoria em ciência

"Theories are neither hunches nor guesses. They are the crown jewels of science.
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“In science, the word theory isn’t applied lightly,” Kenneth R. Miller, a cell biologist at Brown University, said. “It doesn’t mean a hunch or a guess. A theory is a system of explanations that ties together a whole bunch of facts. It not only explains those facts, but predicts what you ought to find from other observations and experiments.”
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It’s helpful, he argues, to think about theories as being like maps.
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“To say something is a map is not to say it’s a hunch,” said Dr. Godfrey-Smith, a professor at the City University of New York and the University of Sydney. “It’s an attempt to represent some territory.”
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A theory, likewise, represents a territory of science. Instead of rivers, hills, and towns, the pieces of the territory are facts.
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“To call something a map is not to say anything about how good it is,” Dr. Godfrey-Smith added. “There are fantastically good maps where there’s not a shred of doubt about their accuracy. And there are maps that are speculative.”"

Nunca esquecerei as aulas de Filosofia do meu 11º ano com o Professor Guedes Miranda, acerca de da mecânica quântica, do indeterminismo e da incerteza de Heisenberg. E nunca esquecerei os recortes do Expresso que ainda guardo com a entrevista a Popper quando veio a Lisboa para as Conferências do Fim do Século, convidado por Mário Soares. Banho de humildade epistemológica para sempre.

Trechos retirados de "In Science, It’s Never ‘Just a Theory’"

Curiosidade do dia

Sou só eu que relaciono isto ""Devíamos estar melhor... e cada vez estamos pior"" com isto "Curiosidade do dia" e com isto "California's Unions Demand $15-An-Hour Minimum Wage; It Will Destroy A Third Of The State"?