Zombies, Ponzi e decisões difíceis

 

"Very few things scale forever.

The hardest moment to stop scaling our work is the moment when it’s working the best.

And that’s precisely the moment when we need to have the guts to stop making it bigger."

Não ser capaz de tomar esta decisão leva a zombies que vivem à custa de um esquema Ponzi.

"Go-to-market choices involve uncertainty because they are made within a system with many moving parts. ... committing to a single strategy is hard because it requires giving up all the other possibilities.

...

Each choice naturally constrains others that follow. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o espaço de Minkowski] This process forces discipline because it comes with a strong internal logic that connects all elements."

1º trecho retirado de "Crowding the pan".

2º trecho retirado de "Big Picture Strategy- The Six Choices That Will Transform Your Business" De Marta Dapena Barón.

Nichos, problemas e ofertas

Interessante ter apanhado este artigo de Seth Godin, "Which problem are we solving?":

"Solving a problem puts value creation first.

Who’s it for?

What problem does it solve?

Would we miss it if you didn’t build it?"

Quando ainda tenho este outro no bornal, "Steve Blank Your Product is Not Their Problem": 

"“So why should anybody in the concrete industry care? Do you really think they’re looking for bacteria made in fluidized bed reactors? Do you think there are a significant number whose number one issue is to buy bacteria? Do you know what if any of the features you mentioned actually matter to a potential customer?” There was silence for a moment. And then he said, “I don’t know.”

I wasn’t completely surprised because as a young marketeer, I made this mistake all the time – thinking that my product was a solution to someone’s problem  – without ever understanding what problems the customers really had. And that I needed to have all the answers when in fact I didn’t even understand the questions."

Este outro também relevante para o tema, "Niching Down For Success": 

"Talk about niching down! She’s found a lot of success focusing on this slice of the wedding market and recommends you get just as granular. 

...

niching down allows you to get really good at the details. ... When you master your niche, you will naturally get really good at recognizing the small but impactful details that make you stand out."

A diferença entre "Think “outcome before output”"

"The solution is not surrendering to the system"

 

"Because industrial systems hate variability. They work to mechanize as many steps as they can, and if forced to use a human, work hard to keep that human within very specific boundaries.

Better to have a three-hour Zoom call where everyone listens to the rules than risk having someone make a mistake, even one with no negative impact. Better to parcel out jobs to the cheapest available cog than depend on a linchpin to make a difference. And better to know in advance exactly what to expect.

The industrial system would rather settle for mediocre than suffer between moments of brilliance and occasional defects.

The solution is not surrendering to the system. It’s to realize that in a competitive marketplace, automating human performance is a shortcut to becoming a commodity. If you can automate it, so can your competitors.

Instead, we have the opportunity to do work that is unexpected, generous and original. It won’t be perfect, it won’t be the cheapest, but it will matter."

 Recordar Agosto de 2016, "Confundir o Estanhistão com Comoditização... suspeito (parte III)" e A importância da interacção.

Trecho retirado de "Variability, industrialization and hating your job"

Cutting corners

"Chain restaurants rarely use fresh herbs. They’re uneven, unreliable and expensive, and most diners have been conditioned to want food that’s more processed and bland.

The same is true for most of what we buy and sell. It’s becoming ever more predictable, pre-processed and cost-reduced.

The pressure tends to go in one direction–turn your work into a commodity, smooth over the edges and fit in all the way. That seems hard to argue with, particularly if you want to be popular and profitable."

Cutting corners by default ou através de troca de gato por lebre é um sinal de alarme que vejo em algumas organizações.

Gente que troca gato por lebre faz-me lembrar gente que anda a minar os caminhos que supostamente já foram desminados. Os incautos inocentes ...

Trecho retirado de "Fresh herbs"

"it’s a chance to make a difference"

Um bom texto, mais um de Seth Godin:

"Interactions with the people who are enrolled and giving you the benefit of the doubt are a form of avocado time. They shouldn’t be optimized for efficiency or even leverage. Instead, it’s a chance to make a difference."

Como não relacionar com Stephen Covey e não só em "Every visit customers have to make ..."

Modelos mentais ultrapassados

Do século XX, do Normalistão, até Mongo, o Estranhistão, em meia-dúzia de linhas:

"When distribution is scarce, the hits are powerful indeed.

AM Top 40 radio meant that if you made that list of 40 hits, you were going to sell a huge number, and if you didn’t, you were gone.

Giant movie screens meant a few movies could play for months and own the market.

Limited independent bookstores kept a hit on the bestseller list for up to a year.

And then, when the long tail arrives, there’s a riot of variety, with most of the available offerings selling few indeed (most videos on YouTube have fewer than 25 views) but the ones on the shoulders do far better than they ever would before. This happened to movies in the 1990s when the number of screens multiplied, and to cable TV when the premium networks were okay with 3 million viewers for Mad Men.

Excited creators start to imagine infinity. There will be room for an unlimited number of Kindle books or YouTube videos or Netflix shows…

And that’s when the pendulum starts to oscillate a bit.

Because the media business remains a business, and it’s largely built on attention, and attention is scarce and it’s hard to scale.

So instead of an infinite number of successful titles, the market begins to segment. Instead of one blockbuster movie like Jaws that owns the summer for an entire nation, there are multiple markets, multiple audiences. But within those segments, there are still hits. Short heads built on multiple long tails.

Yes, having the most popular podcast in the world is quite valuable. But having the most popular podcast for a particular audience is valuable as well.

And we continue to segment for as long as the attention can be lumped together in valuable ways.

But, at the same time, we live in community, and we have a thirst for the big hit, the one that ‘everyone’ is talking about.

The disconnect occurs when producers and creators try to average things out and dumb things down, hoping for the big hit that won’t come. Or overspend to get there. The opportunity lies in finding a viable audience and matching the project’s focus and budget to the people who truly want it.[Moi ici: É aqui que se impõe o conluio entre os governos e os incumbentes para os proteger, para tentar eliminar do mercado os mais pequenos, para facilitar a possibilidade de os comprar. A tal economia das carpetes e dos biombos. Por exemplo, no século XXI faz algum sentido que uma empresa precise de aguentar um calvário de 4 anos para ter licença para operar? Por isso, escrevo teets como o que se segue abaixo]

And the dance continues."

Sinto que muita gente, a maioria, continua fiel ao ditado de Napoleão, queres saber como é que pensa uma pessoa? Estuda como era o mundo quando ela tinha 20 anos. BTW, uso este ditado há vários anos, este ano, ao ler um livro percebi a sua origem. Em 1793 Napoleão chegou, com 24 anos, como capitão de artilharia à cidade de Toulon, tomada por uma força anglo-espanhola, e saiu de lá como brigadeiro-general. Como? Porque percebeu o quanto a artilharia tinha mudado e podia ajudá-lo a fazer algo que parecia muito difícil e moroso. Os outros, moldados num outro tempo, estavam noutra. Julgo que Napoleão fez o que fez para expulsar os anglo-espanhóis à revelia das chefias.

Sim, muitos professores, aqueles que moldam os futuros agentes, muitos analistas, muitos políticos, continuam com a mente no século XX e nos seus estímulos e modelos mentais.

Trechos retirados de "The dance between the long tail and the short head"

Até que ponto é possível?

"Innovators rarely have a competition problem. The challenge isn’t that your market is buying from an alternative provider–the challenge is that they’re buying from no one.

The work we do and the stories we tell when we seek to create activation are dramatically different from the mindset of competition, and yet the lessons from our culture (sports, mass merchants, politics) are all about competition.

“We’re better than them,” is a competition slogan.

That’s very different from, “things could be better,” or “you’re missing this new thing,” or, “people you admire are already using this.”

If you want to grow, you’ll need to get someone to not only decide that you’re worth their time and money, you’ll need to motivate them to act now instead of later." 

Agora é juntar este postal acerca do futuro do calçado, "Calçado - Fazer a transição", ou este outro, "Quantas empresas (parte XI)", e recordar as palavras de Wickham Skinner em Maio de 1974 acerca da "empresa focada". Até que ponto é possível aspirar a ter sucesso e comportar-se como um dinossauro vermelho?

Trecho retirado de "Competition vs. activation" 

Para reflexão

Recomendo este texto de Seth Godin "No fooling":

"The first of April was a day when we were supposed to be aware that not everything was as it seemed, that we should be on our guard. And now, exhausting as it is, every day is like that.

I’m hopeful that our culture is resilient enough to get back to the truth.

Show your work. Earn attention and build trust. Every day.

Too much spin simply makes us dizzy."

Brace for impact

"The world is going to change, and resilience is our best response.

It’s not about building things that always turn out the way we expect. Bulletproof is too expensive, too rigid and requires perfect knowledge of the future.

...

Instead of designing for the best case scenario, we make the effort to consider how our work thrives when the best case doesn’t arrive. Because that’s far more likely.

...

Flexibility, community, and a sense of possibility can go a long way. That doesn’t make it easier, but it’s our best path forward."

O Jornal de Negócios brinda-nos hoje com dois textos sobre moratórias, chamo especial atenção para a dimensão das associadas às PMEs.

BTW, um outro texto do mesmo jornal, o texto de Cristina Casalinho sobre comparações estatísticas deixa dois temas importantes de fora... quando ela compara o número de portugueses com uma licenciatura: licenciatura em quê? Licenciatura para quê, para arranjar guia de marcha para emigrar? 

Ontem, jovem com 26 anos (true story) ligou-me a dizer que depois de impostos ia ganhar 6800 €/mês não em Portugal, claro! Lembrem-se da caridadezinha.

Trecho retirado de "Resilience"

"working to please the pleasable is a lot more likely to pay off"

 Na senda dos meus postais sobre Bieber, ou sobre um negócio ter inimigos, ou não ter 100% de clientes satisfeitos, este texto de Seth Godin, "Pleasing the unpleasable" que o meu amigo Paulo me mandou:

"There are bosses, customers and partners who will never be happy.

And sometimes, despite the futility, we work to please them anyway.

Because that can be a compass. It can help us do the work that will satisfy others (or ourselves).

It can also be a trap, an endless treadmill of disappointment that leads nowhere in particular.

We should be clear about which one we’re on. Because working to please the pleasable is a lot more likely to pay off."

"Easy in, easy out, next!"

O Hélder Ferreira publicou há dias este texto no FB:

Fez-me logo lembrar este trecho que li há dias em "The practice: shipping creative work" de Seth Godin.

"Years ago, I produced a record for a very skilled duo. They were incredibly hardworking and committed to their art. In order to survive, they performed three hundred days a year, and they lived in a van, driving each day to a new town, playing at a local coffeehouse, sleeping in the van, then repeating it all the next day.

In most towns, there are a few places like this—if you’ve issued a few CDs and are willing to work for cheap, you can get booked without too much trouble.

These cafés are not good clients. Easy in, easy out, next!

What I helped these musicians understand is that going from town to town and working with easy gigs was wasting their effort and hiding their art. What they needed to do was stay in one town, earn fans, play again, earn fans, move to a better venue, and do it again. And again.

Working their way up by claiming what they’d earned: fans."

Como são os clientes da sua empresa?  "Easy in, easy out, next!"

Superpoderes

Qual é o superpoder da sua empresa? 

"You wouldn’t hire FedEx to safely transport a fragile large item across the country. Their superpower is speed, not avoiding jostling. On the other hand, an art transport company might take a bit longer to get the vase to your new home, but their white-glove treatment (with actual white gloves) would make them an obvious alternative to FedEx.

“You can choose anyone and we’re anyone” is not a useful way to earn customers, patrons, or supporters. Because if you’re anyone, it’s worth mentioning that a search engine is happy to point people to plenty of other people who are as anyone as you are.

In order to deliver speed at a low price, FedEx had to commit. They made a significant number of choices all focused on that one metric. If you try to ship a very large (but very light) box via FedEx, you’ll discover that instead of costing $30, it costs $450. That’s because it breaks their system, and their system is their superpower.

When we think of an artist we admire, we’re naming someone who stands for something. And to stand for something is to commit."

Trecho retirado de "The practice: shipping creative work" de Seth Godin.

"The alternative is to be idiosyncratic, specific and worth the effort and expense"

Um grande postal de Seth Godin!!! Mesmo na mouche!!! Há tempos tive um diálogo parecido com o tema do postal. Uma organização encomendou-me um texto para o seu site, deu-me o tema, deu-me uma lista de palavras-chave a usar para optimizar a pesquisa SEO e deu-me um número de palavras a atingir.

Indiferente, escrevi o meu texto. Depois, começaram-me a chatear com as palavras-chave que tinham de ser repetidas e que não tinha atingido o target de  número de palavras. a partir daí senti-me que entrava no reino do plástico artificial.

"It’s tempting to race to the bottom. The problem is that you might win, and then you’ll have to stay there. Worse, you might try and come in second, accomplishing not much of anything.

Linkbait is a trap, because it brings you attention you actually don’t want.

The alternative is to be idiosyncratic, specific and worth the effort and expense. What would happen if you made something important, breathtaking or wonderful? The race to the top is not only more satisfying, it’s also more likely to work.

And then you get to live there. Doing work you’re proud of, without excuses."

Trecho retirado de "More popular (and cheap, too)" 

Servir quem?

Um excelente conselho de Seth Godin. Como é que a sua empresa o pode  pôr em prática?

"Choose Your Clients, Choose Your Future

The masses aren’t the point. They might be a welcome side effect of your work, but to please the masses, you must pander to average.

Because mass means average.

When we decide that the change we seek to make is dependent on mass popularity, when we chase a hit, we end up sacrificing our point of view. 

On average, every population is dull. The slide toward average sands off all the interesting edges, destroying energy, interest, and possibility.

What’s the difference between Chip Kidd, the extraordinarily successful book cover designer, and someone with the same tools and skills that Chip has?

Chip has better clients.

Better clients demand better work. Better clients want you to push the envelope, win awards, and challenge their expectations. Better clients pay on time. Better clients talk about you and your work.

But finding better clients isn’t easy, partly because we don’t trust ourselves enough to imagine that we deserve them. [Moi ici: E isto requer foco, requer concentração. Pior, requer rejeitar outros potenciais clientes]

Every gig-economy hustler who’s listed on Fiverr or Upwork or 99designs is looking for easy clients. Easy in and easy out, but they’re not better clients than they have now.

Years ago, I produced a record for a very skilled duo. They were incredibly hardworking and committed to their art. In order to survive, they performed three hundred days a year, and they lived in a van, driving each day to a new town, playing at a local coffeehouse, sleeping in the van, then repeating it all the next day.

In most towns, there are a few places like this—if you’ve issued a few CDs and are willing to work for cheap, you can get booked without too much trouble.

These cafés are not good clients. Easy in, easy out, next!

What I helped these musicians understand is that going from town to town and working with easy gigs was wasting their effort and hiding their art. What they needed to do was stay in one town, earn fans, play again, earn fans, move to a better venue, and do it again. And again.

Working their way up by claiming what they’d earned: fans."

Como fugir da mediania? Como fugir da comoditização? Servir quem?  

Trecho retirado de "The practice: shipping creative work" de Seth Godin.

"Simply begin. But begin."

As oportunidades multiplicam-se à medida que são aproveitadas. 

A mensagem de Seth Godin que aprecio anda à volta disto: esquecer as desculpas e começar, e experimentar e experimentar e experimentar. Quando era miúdo, talvez com 6 ou 7 anos, vi um filme na televisão que me impressionou. No Japão do tempo dos samurais um oleiro fazia as suas peças e cozia-as num forno. Depois, avaliava cada peça cozida e partia quase todas, e eu não percebia porquê. Só muitos anos depois é que concluí que era por causa da sua reputação, porque cada peça levava a sua marca pessoal. 

"Start Where You Are

Identity fuels action, and action creates habits, and habits are part of a practice, and a practice is the single best way to get to where you seek to go.

Before you are a “bestselling author,” you’re an author, and authors write. Before you are an “acclaimed entrepreneur,” you’re simply someone who is building something.

“I am _______ but they just don’t realize it yet” is totally different from “I’m not _______ because they didn’t tell me I was.”

The only choice we have is to begin. And the only place to begin is where we are.

Simply begin.

But begin.

Imogen Roy helps us understand that effective goals aren’t based on the end result: they are commitments to the process. That commitment is completely under your control, even if the end result can’t be.

But the only way to have a commitment is to begin.

....

Because creative people create.

Do the work, become the artist. Instead of planning, simply become. Acting as if is how we acquire identity"

Trechos retirados de "The Practice" de Seth Godin

"We become what we do"

Comecei a ouvir o último livro de Seth Godin durante as viagens de carro para fora de Gaia. Seth Godin é um autor que escreve para os humanos de Mongo, os humanos que fogem do século XX e abraçam a arte em todas as suas facetas.

BTW, recordar o que escrevemos aqui ao longo dos anos sobre a arte e o eficientismo. Por isso, apelar à arte fere o mindset assente no século XX.

"For the important work, the instructions are always insufficient. For the work we’d like to do, the reward comes from the fact that there is no guarantee, that the path isn’t well lit, that we cannot possibly be sure it’s going to work.

It’s about throwing, not catching. Starting, not finishing. Improving, not being perfect.

No one learns to ride a bike from a manual.

...

Art is what we call it when we’re able to create something new that changes someone.

No change, no art.

...

It’s a form of leadership, not management. A process without regard for today’s outcome, a commitment to the journey.

You were born ready to make art. But you’ve been brainwashed into believing that you can’t trust yourself enough to do so.

You’ve been told you don’t have enough talent (but that’s okay, because you can learn the skill instead).

You’ve been told you’re not entitled to speak up (but now you can see how many others have taken their turns).

And you’ve been told that if you can’t win, you shouldn’t even try (but now you see that the journey is the entire point).

Art is the generous act of making things better by doing something that might not work.

...

“If we believe that it’s not our turn, that we’re not talented enough, we’ll do whatever we can to make that story true. We’ll sit back and wait to be chosen instead. [Moi ici: Algo que li recentemente como sendo o efeito Forer]

That’s backward.

Most of the time, the story we live by came from somewhere. It might be the way we were raised, or it could be the outcome of a series of events. Burn yourself on the stove and you might persuade yourself that you should go nowhere near a stove. Grow up in a home with low expectations and it’s possible you’ll begin to believe them. The story we tell ourselves leads to the actions we take.

If you want to change your story, change your actions first. When we choose to act a certain way, our mind can’t help but rework our narrative to make those actions become coherent.

We become what we do.”

Trechos retirados de "The Practice" de Seth Godin.

“Or consider the Forer effect. This is the strong tendency that subjects show to believe feedback from personality tests, regardless of whether those results are bogus.”

Trecho retirado de "Uncharted" de Margaret Heffernan. 

"“all data and no anecdote” isn’t going to get you very far"

 Um texto, mais um, de Seth Godin, bom para reflexão:

"That’s a criticism, of course. A report, study or testimony that’s all anecdote with no data carries little in the way of actionable information.

On the other hand, if you want to change people’s minds, “all data and no anecdote” isn’t going to get you very far.

We act on what we understand, we understand what fits into our worldview and we remember what we act on."

Que estórias associamos aos produtos e serviços que desenvolvemos e vendemos?

Trecho retirado de “All anecdote and no data” 

Para reflexão

 "Given how much our culture depends on finding out what’s new, it’s surprising that few have figured out how to be smart about it. If you’re a creator, the truth remains what the truth has been ever since Yahoo tried to sort the web by hand: the best way to make a hit is to build something for the smallest viable audience and make it so good that people tell their peers."

Trecho retirado de "Who is good at discovery?" 

The alternative

When I write here about Mongo, about the Mongo metaphor, or the Estranhistão (Weirdistan), it’s because of this that Seth Godin wrote in "Commercial vulnerability":

"The question for most of us is: What if the work you do is:

• compliance-based
• standardized
• repetitive
• not based on innovative or flexible customer interaction…

If it is, it’s pretty likely that you’ll be replaced by a combination of robots, AI and outsourcing.

If they can find someone or something cheaper than you, they’re going to work overtime to do so.

The alternative is to be local, creative, energetic, optimistic, trusted, innovative and hard to replace."

"stand for something"

Mais uma mensagem de Seth Godin:

"Most of the brands we truly care about stand for something. And the thing they stand for is unlikely to be, “whatever you want, we have it.” It’s also unlikely to be, “you can choose anyone and we’re anyone.”

.

A meaningful specific can’t possibly please everyone. That’s the deal."

E a sua empresa... recorde Justin Bieber.

 

Trecho retirado de "“It might not be for you”"