Que cenários para o futuro do fast-fashion

Interessante descobrir, depois disto "A revolução mental", poucos dias depois, este artigo "In Trendy World Of Fast Fashion, Styles Aren't Made To Last" de certa forma na mesma onda. Algumas ideias sobre a caracterização do modelo:

"the world of "fast fashion"
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"The products are very, very cheap," ... "The design is pretty attractive. And if you walk into the store, I think, for a lot of consumers, it's virtually impossible to walk out empty-handed."
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constantly turning over their merchandise, introducing ever-trendier clothing and feeding their customers' desire for novelty.
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"We want to surprise the customers,"
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Much of H&M's clothing is so inexpensive... that consumers can afford to buy it in quantities that wouldn't have begun to fit in our grandparents' armoires. It's so cheap that it isn't even worth returning if we get home and decide we don't like it,
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But despite the low prices, fast fashion chains can be enormously profitable.
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How can these stores make so much money selling $10 shirts? Mostly because of volume. ... "They put a small markup on the clothes and earn their profit out of selling an ocean of clothing.""

O fim das 2 épocas por ano (52 épocas por ano aqui e aqui):

"Meanwhile, computer technology transformed the entire process, enabling retailers to design, manufacture and ship products much faster and more efficiently. At one time, the fashion industry worked around a two-season calendar that unfolded at a predictable pace.
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A relentless drive for speed now characterizes the industry. Chains like Zara are so fast, they can design, manufacture and get clothing onto store shelves in a month. Customers can now easily see the latest fashions online and have become conditioned to expect a constant stream of trendy new styles from retailers."

Um ponto fraco do modelo que pode crescer e obrigar a repensar muita coisa:

"'Landfill Fashion'.
Poor quality has turned the fast fashion label into something of a pejorative, so much so that chains like Uniqlo and H&M now reject the term altogether.
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there's a growing public consensus that the mass production of so much cheap clothing is an enormous waste of resources such as fuel and water. While many people donate their clothing to charities and consignment shops, fast fashion tends to be so cheaply made that no one wants to buy it, she notes. Instead, it gets recycled into industrial rags and insulation, or even thrown out altogether — generating the term "landfill fashion."
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The fast fashion model may be cracking in other ways, too. Factory workers in China, where a lot of clothing is manufactured, are increasingly pressing for higher wages.
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Companies have responded by moving production into places where wages are even lower, like Bangladesh. (Moi ici: Recordar o efeito do "banhista gordo") But such countries lack the sophisticated manufacturing infrastructure of China, and in the rush to fill the void, tragedy has sometimes ensued.
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The industry will no doubt adapt over time, but the days when fashion gets faster and cheaper every year are probably at an end."

Recordar o que escreveram no texto referido na primeira hiperligação:

"El low cost necesita una reinvención, sin dejar de ser estrategia a bajo coste. Creo que la solución no va por bajar más los precios, sino competir haciendo mejores productos y mejores tiendas a precios razonables pero no ridículos, para poder ofrecer una experiencia al consumidor." 

O que recomendo às empresas neste sector: invistam em pensar que cenários podem vir a encontrar no futuro e preparem-se com antecedência para eles.

ISO 9001:2015 (parte II)

Parte I.
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Voltemos à figura:

E analisemos este documento sobre a futura norma ISO 9001:2015. Apesar das operações permanentes ainda ficarem com uma ênfase superior aquilo que tem de ser transformado (item 7 da nova norma) a coisa parece aproximar-se mais da visão transformativa:

E analisando em pormenor alguns items:

• 4.1 “Understanding the organization and its context” - “The organization shall determine external and internal issues that are relevant to its purpose and that affect its ability to achieve the intended outcome(s) of its “XXX” management system.” (Moi ici: Gosto! Faz sentido. Pensar no propósito da organização e naquilo que é relevante para ela)
• "6.1 Actions to address risks and opportunities - The organization shall plan: a) actions to address these risks and opportunities, and b) how to -integrate and implement the actions into its XXX management system processes; -evaluate the effectiveness of these actions.” (Moi ici: Gosto! Faz sentido a concentração na transformação para criar o futuro desejado tendo em conta os riscos e as oportunidades)
• "6.2 XXX objectives and planning to achieve them"
• "6.2 XXX objectives and planning to achieve them (contd…) “When planning how to achieve its XXX objectives, the organization shall determine -what will be done -what resources will be required -who will be responsible -when it will be completed -how the results will be evaluated.” (Moi ici: Gosto! Faz sentido. Dar mais relevância ao pormenor do que precisa ser feito para transformar a empresa)

Muito lindo; contudo, isto não bate certo com isto como posicionamento para a ISO 9001:

"Focus on providing confidence in the organization’s PRODUCTS (Organizational improvement is a secondary objective)"

E esta narrativa?

A propósito de "Passos Coelho admite eleições antecipadas e possibilidade de segundo resgate":

• PPC demite-se;
• Novas eleições ganhas pelo PS;
• Novo governo PS negoceia segundo resgate;
• MoU II muito mais exigente que o MoU I;
• PS lidera revisão da constituição ou saída do euro para pôr as fotocopiadoras de notas a funcionar

Sempre a mesma reacção, epidérmica, intuitiva e... errada

Tal como aconteceu com a imprensa escrita, sistematicamente, quando chega um novo concorrente low-cost a um sector de actividade, a reacção epidérmica, intuitiva e instintiva dos incumbentes é a de responder na mesma moeda.
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E essa resposta é a errada!
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É impossível competir de igual para igual com empresas com um modelo de negócio e uma estrutura diferente!!!
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E ao enveredarem por essa via, alienam as suas diferenças e competem no terreno que mais vantagens competitivas dão aos novos concorrentes.
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Mais um exemplo disto "Legacy vs low-cost carriers - Spot the difference":

"Ostensibly, then, cost-cutting has been successful. But it may yet backfire. As traditional carriers ape budget airlines, they force themselves to compete solely on price terms. James Pearson, a researcher, argues that with higher structural costs—poor fuel hedging, lower labour productivity and inefficient ticket distribution—traditional carriers cannot compete on price without eating into their already-slim margins. KPMG’s figures show that a legacy airline operating an Airbus A320 between London and Rome spends $12,000 more on each round-trip than a low-cost airline does.
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Successful cost saving has, ironically, put legacy airlines in a precarious position, forcing them to compete with rivals on unfavourable terms. Some will fail. The likes of Malev Hungarian, Mexicana and Air Jamaica already have. Survivors will merge and raise prices."

Recordo aquele ditado: Não tentes competir com a Wal-Mart nos preços ou com a China nos custos

Curiosidade do dia

"Se não forem tidas em conta excepções às novas regras de transporte de mercadorias, em vigor a partir de 1 de Maio, o abastecimento de leite e lacticínios ao mercado nacional pode ser interrompido. O alerta é da Federação Nacional das Cooperativas de Produtores de Leite (Fenalac) que aguarda, há quase dois meses, por uma resposta da Autoridade Tributária e Aduaneira (AT) ao pedido de parecer vinculativo sobre lei."

Aposto que os burocratas da AT ainda estão a estudar forma de obrigar as vacas a obedecerem às suas regras quer em termos de quantidade e qualidade do leite.
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É um regresso a Allende e ao socialismo científico.

Trecho retirado de "Novas regras de transporte põem em risco abastecimento de leite, alertam cooperativas"

Sem escolhas... nada feito (cabotagem vs alto-mar)

"Too often CEO’s allow the urgent to cloud out the important. “When an organizational bias for action drives doing, often thinking falls by the wayside.”
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Rather than develop strategies, many leaders tend to approach strategy in one of the following ineffective ways:
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they define strategy as a vision;
they define strategy as a plan;
they deny that long-term strategy is possible;
they define strategy as the optimization of the status quo; and
they define strategy as following best practices.
“These ineffective approaches,” Lafley and Martin argue, “are driven by a misconception of what strategy really is and a reluctance to make truly hard choices.”
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While everyone wants to keep options open as long as possible, only making and acting on choices allow you “to win.” Great organization choose to win — tough choices force your hand but, if you let them, they also focus your organization.
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When a company sets out to participate, rather than win, it will inevitably fail to make the tough choices and the significant investments that would make winning even a remote possibility."

Trecho retirado de "Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works"

A importância da focalização

"Ask first-time entrepreneurs who they plan on selling their product to, and the most likely answer you’ll hear is an enthusiastic “Everyone!” Those a bit more savvy back off from global hegemony by proposing a vertical slice, such as “financial services companies,” or horizontally, “the Fortune 1000,” or by product, as in “people who buy milkshakes,” or even a specific demographic, such as “women between the ages of 18 and 73.” Unfortunately for new businesses, these ill-defined segments are neither realistic nor helpful.
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Imagine you were a commercial fisherman. Your livelihood depends on catching and selling fish. If you are asked, “What sort of fish do you plan to catch?” and you answer, “All the fish in the sea,” you are surely doomed as a commercial fisherman. It turns out there are not only many fish in the sea, but they have different forms and different ethologies. Methods of fishing that work well for some species don’t work so well for others. Battle-tested entrepreneurs know how to fish, and when asked who will buy their product, they respond not by reciting demographic characteristics, but by speaking about specific buyers and their particular pains, passions, and needs. Who will buy your product is as important as the gloriousness that is your product. Although the customer chooses the product, when building a new business it’s up to you to choose your customer. (Recordar que o cliente pode ter a última palavra; contudo, o fornecedor tem a primeira - aqui e aqui) In fact, depending on your values and vision, the choice you make may be even more important than your product idea. If the most important element of your business idea is the particular market segment you want to serve, and you think you can serve them in a way that matches the vision you have for your business, then you may decide to treat your market segment as the fulcrum on which to pivot. In other words, you change your product idea, your distribution channels, and your marketing and sales plans to fit the needs of that segment."

Trechos retirados de "The lean entrepreneur : how visionaries create products, innovate with new ventures, and disrupt markets" de Brant Cooper e Patrick Vlaskovits.

Cuidado com os defensores dos mitos

Um excelente texto, "When myths triumph over metrics", sobre a importância de ter um algoritmo (uma estratégia para a tomada de decisões), de estabelecer formas menos subjectivas (indicadores) de análise dos resultados reais versus os resultados desejados e rever o algoritmo.

"Making decisions based on data does not guarantee success every time. It only gives you a reproducible and refinable system that helps you make better and informed decisions based only on metrics you set forth and devoid of any cognitive biases. The system can be simple or complex. Use as few variables or as many as possible. Could be deterministic or probabilistic. It is far superior to decisions based on myths.
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Recognize the reproducibility of metrics driven approach and our ability to continuously question the data and keep refining it.
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Recognize the fact that there were many thousands that filled out the bracket using their own myths and biases and just by sheer luck some are going to be correct. We cannot treat their success of those standing as triumph of gut over mind."

Curiosamente sinto que os media dão cada vez mais espaço de  opinião a crentes e defensores de mitos.

BTW:

"Vítor Gaspar apresentou a implementação do programa como um sucesso, mas admitiu que, "para ser transparente", tinha de explicar que "nem tudo aconteceu de acordo com o planeado.""

ISO 9001:2015 (parte I)

Há sete ou oito anos, na consultoria de apoio à implementação de sistemas integrados de gestão, nas pós-graduações e nas aulas da licenciatura de engenharia do ambiente, defendia que achava a norma ISO 14001 mais inteligente que a norma ISO 9001. Mais inteligente porque era mais votada para a acção, para a transformação, para o desenho de sistemas de gestão como máquinas dedicadas a construir a organização do futuro desejado a partir da organização real actual.
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Anos depois, no livro "Gestão Ambiental - Sintonizar Ambiente e Estratégia para o Negócio"escrevemos:

"Acreditamos que os sistemas de gestão ambiental podem ser diferentes, podem ter uma sinergia evidente com o negócio, com a estratégia para o negócio.
Acreditamos que os sistemas de gestão ambiental podem, e devem, ser máquinas, para atingir objectivos, para promover a mudança onde ela é necessária.
Acreditamos que os sistemas de gestão não são papéis e mais papeis, são portfolios de projectos que geram a mudança onde ela é necessária, mudança alinhada com a estratégia do negócio."

No livro usamos o esquema (aqui, versão ainda mais antiga):

 Para descrever a forma como entendemos e modelamos um sistema de gestão ambiental.
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Aqui, uma versão ainda mais antiga:

Agora, imaginem se esta abordagem fosse aplicada à ISO 9001... como seria?
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Continua

Sem bail-out e sem campeões nacionais

Temos isto:

""Corporate fall" is an important component of "entrepreneurship rise" (one component of many, it should be noted). What happens to entrepreneurship ecosystems when corporations fall? The reality is, they almost always adapt and grow in creative and novel ways. I make this observation fully cognizant of, and sympathetic with, the pain of being tossed out into the street, as so many people are when corporations fail, downsize, or restructure. The practical implication here is obviously not to encourage or applaud corporate death, just as recognizing the ecosystem renewal after a the loss of a whale is obviously not a call to go out and kill whales. But in an ever more complex and volatile world, business leaders and policy makers would be well served in allowing nature a little more rein in playing out its course."

Trecho retirado de "When Big Companies Fall, Entrepreneurship Rises"

Curiosidade do dia

"O Banco de Portugal antecipa um excedente da balança de bens e serviços menos expressivo para este ano do que previa em Novembro (2,8% do PIB, em vez de 3,1%). Em contrapartida, a balança corrente e de capital (agregado que inclui o anterior) deverá registar um excedente maior neste ano do que o inicialmente previsto (3,6% em vez de 3,1%), que será ampliado para 4,8% em 2014"

Trecho retirado de "Balança corrente portuguesa a caminho de excedente de quase 5%"

Rapidez, rapidez, rapidez

"Does it actually make sense, financially, to make clothes in the United States?
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"If American Apparel was not made in U.S.A., we would not exist today," says Charney.
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It doesn't make sense to drive to Vietnam to pick up a T-shirt," Charney says. By boat, it takes at least a month to get T-shirts shipped in.
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For Charney, that's too long. So instead, he drives to the seven-story American Apparel headquarters in downtown Los Angeles. From his top-floor office, Charney and his staff figure out what's selling well and quickly, then fill in the sewing managers one floor below.
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The quick process means the company's supply has a much better chance of matching demand. The American Apparel factory is so nimble, it can get 1,000 T-shirts out the door in a single day."

Trechos retirados de "Fast Fashion's Challenge: Making Money With 'Made In The USA'"

Quantas julgam que estão a fazer um excelente trabalho?

Há tempos, já noite, estava a lavar os dentes, quando o meu filho mais novo me apareceu com um sorriso malandro e me mostrou o teste de audição que tinha feito durante o dia na aula de Inglês.
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Olhei, entre o curioso e o desconfiado, para a folha de papel e rapidamente percebi o porquê do seu sorriso. A folha continha a letra da canção "Logical Song" de um dos meus grupos preferidos, os Supertramp.
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E a minha mente voou para o meu 8º ano de escolaridade e para as minhas aulas de Inglês...
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Os professores tentam tornar a aprendizagem mais fácil, relacionando-a com assuntos, como a música, que "mexem" com os estudantes; contudo, continuam incapazes de calçar os sapatos dos alunos.
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Quando eu andava no 8º ano, aí por 1978, os professores usavam a letra das canções de Cat Stevens e de Elton John, cantores da transição dos anos 60 para os anos 70 e completamente "out" naquela altura (o regresso de Elton John viria mais tarde). Qual era o miúdo com 13/14 anos que em 1978 ouvia Cat Stevens ou Elton John?
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Quando chega a minha vez de escolher o CD a pôr no carro durante viagens longas, tenho sempre um dos Supertramp à mão, que ponho a tocar sob protesto dos meus filhos, que acham aquilo demasiado fatela ou cota!
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Agora, salto para a relação entre as empresas e os seus clientes...
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Quantas empresas interpretam a relação com os seus clientes da mesma forma que a professora de inglês do meu filho? Quantas, incapazes de calçar os sapatos do cliente e de ver o mundo pelo seu prisma, esforçam-se e julgam que estão a fazer um excelente trabalho?
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Apesar do euro e da TSU

• "Em Janeiro as exportações da ITV retomaram a rota do crescimento"

"Exportámos 356 milhões de euros, mais 4 milhões face ao exportado em Janeiro de 2012. Os artigos têxteis confeccionados (capítulo 63) exportaram mais 4,8 milhões, registando assim uma taxa de crescimento de 12,3%. As exportações de vestuário de malha cresceram 1,7%, tendo exportado mais 2,5 milhões de euros.
Em termos de produtos têxteis, um bom desempenho para as fibras sintéticas ou artificiais descontínuas, para as pastas, feltros e artigos de cordoaria e para os tecidos em malha que, respectivamente, cresceram 8,1%, 6,2% e 9,5%." (Pormenores aqui)

• "Exportações de calçado ultrapassam pela primeira vez a barreira dos 1.600 milhões em 2012" e "Exportações de calçado ultrapassam barreira dos 1.600 milhões em 2012" e "Exportações de calçado ultrapassam pela primeira vez a barreira dos 1.600 milhões"
• "Exportações portuguesas continuam a crescer na agricultura"

A esquizofrenia continua

Leio:

"O secretário-geral do Sistema de Segurança Interna, Antero Luís, apresentou esta segunda-feira, em Lisboa, um resumo do Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna (RASI), depois de uma reunião com Passos Coelho, os ministros da Justiça e Administração Interna e os responsáveis pelas forças de segurança. Manifestou-se globalmente satisfeito com a baixa de 2,3% nos números gerais da criminalidade, que classificou de "excelentes resultados" e, por isso, felicitou as polícias."

E recordo "Esquizofrenia analítica... por causa de 0,6%"

Trecho inicial retirado de "Crime vira-se para o interior do país"

Curiosidade do dia

Qual o impacte desta transição na forma como os indicadores clássicos das vendas no retalho são lidos?

Imagem retirada de "Mixing bricks with clicks"

Defender o passado é sempre tramado

"Polaroid comes to my mind here ... They were so blinded by their inventive tradition and the money they made on their original breakthrough of “instant” self-developing film that they didn’t realize the growing threat posed by digital imaging.
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If we turn the clock back to 1990, Polaroid’s biggest asset was a global user-base that bought the company’s cameras but also - and more importantly - bought its film. On paper, Polaroid looked agile, with about $3 billion in revenues. Internally, however, the company was at odds with the vision of its founder and inventor, Dr. Edwin Land. Instead of developing the inventive and innovative thinking that brought so much success in the first place, Polaroid used much of its capital to defend itself against copycat technologies. The company refused to explore digital imaging, even as new start-ups out of MIT sprang up along Route 128 and on Kendall Square, offering a glimpse of the digital future. What killed Polaroid was its patent-centric mindset and its firm focus on the past, rather than the future. When the technology it defended so hard against competitors became obsolete, the company became obsolete.
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But what if Polaroid had opened up instead of hunkering down? Just imagine if the designers among its loyal global user-base had collaborated on an open-source “image system” based on, but not limited by, the company’s previous success. First of all, there would have been a different mindset within the company. Polaroid’s brand and product experience was about instant images, not necessarily about cameras and instant film. An opensource strategy would have kept Polaroid on the path of “instant imaging” because, as the technology developed, the choices would have become more varied and flexible."

Trecho retirado de "A fine line" de Hartmut Esslinger.

Perigosa propaganda liberal que quer promover a precariedade (parte II)

Uma previsão, "40% of America’s workforce will be freelancers by 2020"

"By 2020, more than 40% of the US workforce will be so-called contingent workers, according to a study conducted by software company Intuit in 2010. That’s more than 60 million people.
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We are quickly becoming a nation of permanent freelancers and temps. In 2006, the last time the federal government counted, the number of independent and contingent workers—contractors, temps, and the self-employed—stood at 42.6 million, or about 30% of the workforce. How many are there today? We have no idea since 2006 was the last year that the government bothered to count this huge and growing sector of the American workforce."

Um sintoma, "US Bank Tower tells the story of downtown LA office market"

""Much of the empty space for rent reflects a departing era with big offices for executives hogging all the prime window space and bullpen work stations for support staff clustered inside around the elevator cores,""

Ainda outra fonte, "Tomorrow’s workforce will come from the cloud, study predicts"

"By various estimates, 20-33 percent of today’s U.S. workforce now comprises independent workers (freelancers, contractors and temps), up from 6 percent in 1989.
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The report’s authors cite recent data that shows emergence of online independent contractor cloud-based talent platforms — such as Elance, oDesk and TopCoder — is a rapidly growing market, with more than one million workers having earned between $1-2 billion over the past 10 years in this industry. (Moi ici: Recordar Peers, Inc.)

O que uma inocente alteração de comportamento pode gerar

Este artigo "Shoppers’ ‘Mobile Blinders’ Force Checkout-Aisle Changes" é sintomático das mudanças em curso.
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O simples acesso a um smartphone reduz o consumo de pastilhas elásticas e de todas as revistas que se usam para queimar tempos mortos. Mais, todas aquelas compras que se faziam à boca da caixa de pagamento enquanto se esperava a vez, estão em queda, também por causa dos smartphones.

"For years, publishers could count on bored shoppers waiting in the checkout line to pick up a magazine, get engrossed in an article, and toss it into their cart alongside the milk and eggs. Then came “mobile blinders.”
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These days, consumers are more likely to send a quick text and check their Facebook feed than to read a magazine or develop a momentary craving for the gum or candy on display.
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The problem has worsened in the past 18 months, as more than half of all Americans now carry smartphones, Loughlin said. Single-copy sales of U.S. consumer magazines fell 8.2 percent in the second half of 2012 from the year-earlier period, according to the industry group Alliance for Audited Media.
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Some products could leave stores altogether, said Nick Jones, executive vice president at the retail practice of Leo Burnett. Gum, for instance, may need to move from the checkout display to a vending machine at restaurants, he said."

Ou seja, o maior adversário de uma empresa pode não ser um concorrente directo, pode não ser a perda de poder de compra, pode simplesmente ser a alteração de um comportamento por parte dos clientes.

Entretanto em Espanha

Enquanto não chegam dados sobre a situação portuguesa, eis aqui algumas estatísticas sobre os nossos vizinhos de Espanha:

"Las exportaciones textiles mantienen en 2013 el ritmo con que cerraron el ejercicio anterior. En enero, las ventas de artículos textiles al extranjero aumentaron un 13,4%, en relación al mismo mes de 2012, hasta los 901,7 millones de euros, según datos del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad.
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El conjunto de las exportaciones españolas aceleraron su crecimiento en enero, pero se quedaron atrás respecto al sector textil, con una subida interanual del 7,9%.
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Las exportaciones de calzado también mantienen el ritmo de crecimiento. En enero de 2013, las ventas de calzado español al exterior alcanzaron los 222,8 millones de euros, un 14,7% más que en el mismo mes del año anterior."

Trecho retirado de "Las exportaciones textiles empiezan 2013 a buen ritmo con una subida del 13,4%"