Acerca do planeamento estratégico

Um artigo "Is Strategic Planning Too Focused on the “Negatives”?", uma reflexão que vem de alguém que está no terreno e que já me passou pela cabeça. No entanto, a minha conclusão é diferente.

"I run up against the sentiment that strategic planning is a process that, at its core, is focused on the negatives in business. (Moi ici: Não creio que assim seja, é impossível para uma PME melhorar olhando só para o lado negativo, sobretudo quando é preciso mudar de estratégia) ... Why, I get asked, doesn’t strategic planning focus more on identifying, recognizing and celebrating, and leveraging the successes and strengths an organization has?
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 “Is the strategic planning process too focused on gaps and should strengths play a bigger role in the process?” (Moi ici: Claro que sim, claro que uma estratégia com possibilidade de contribuir para a melhoria dos resultados tem de começar sempre, sublinho, SEMPRE, pela conjugação das Oportunidades existentes no exterior com as Forças que a PME tem no seu interior, na sua experiência, no seu ADN)
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this approach is simply an outgrowth of some fundamental beliefs including (1) ALL organizational strengths are good (and should therefore be maintained), and (2) that they will somehow continue to remain our strengths over time. And, furthermore, (3) to move forward, companies need to put more energy into focusing on identifying and closing critical strategic and operational gaps. (Moi ici: Acerca dos pontos 1 e 2. As Forças e as Fraquezas de uma empresa são sempre uma classificação subjectiva. Quantas vezes, com a mudança do entorno, aquilo que era uma Força passa a ser uma Fraqueza e vice-versa. Por exemplo, um país como Portugal, bem posicionado na Fortaleza Europa, para ser muito competitiva como centro de produção low-cost, viu tudo isso cair por água abaixo com a entrada da China no campeonato. Uma coisa é apostar em subir na paisagem competitiva enrugada, escalando o pico actual, outra coisa, é perceber que se tem de competir noutro pico, até porque por vezes o pico que se estava a escalar... abateu-se)
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While it makes sense to put a focus on closing key gaps, I have come to the conclusion that not giving due consideration to strengths translates into a flawed strategic planning approach.
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So perhaps, based on this initial assessment, the feeling that strategic planning focuses too much on the negatives is actually an incorrect perception. (Moi ici: Estratégia, consiste em percorrer o caminho entre a realidade actual e o futuro desejado. Se a situação actual não coincide com a situação futura desejada, algo vai ter de mudar)
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 The thinking is that weaknesses must be effectively addressed to move forward. Rarely are strengths considered at this point, primarily because talking about organizational strengths simply does not fit into a gap closing paradigm. (Moi ici: Quem, como eu, aplica a Theory of Constraints, sabe que temos de "atacar" os gargalos. De nada serve reforçar uma Força se temos gargalos a impedir a optimização do desempenho.)
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The bottom line is that, as it is with most things, focusing attention and efforts too far on either end of the strengths-weaknesses continuum is a sub-optimal place to be. To ensure a sound business strategy, both strengths and weaknesses must receive equal treatment and fair consideration through the strategic planning process." (Moi ici: Não creio que tenham de receber tratamento igual... cada caso é um caso; que tenham de receber "fair consideration" sem dúvida)

Ao olhar para a conjugação das Oportunidades com as Forças, uma empresa estabelece a base para a narrativa sobre como vai ter sucesso, descrever o funcionamento da empresa e do seu ecossistema da procura no futuro desejado.
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Depois, ao confrontar a realidade actual com o futuro desejado, uma empresa tanto aposta em colmatar gaps das Fraquezas, como na minimização das Ameaças. O plano operacional que implementa e executa a estratégia, tem de actuar a este nível; contudo, tem também de melhorar aquelas Forças alinhadas com a estratégia e que contribuem para chegar ao futuro desejado. Por exemplo, empresa que já tem uma marca pode decidir potenciar ainda mais essa marca

A mensagem há-de passar,

A mensagem há-de passar, embora não à velocidade desejada...

"Investing in efficiency innovations can lead to a cycle of increased profits and re-investing in more efficiency. But that cycle vastly decreases investment in the kinds of research-and-development toward longer-term, potentially disruptive innovations--therefore decreasing overall economic growth and job creation. Here, Christensen says, is where America faces a capitalist dilemma. "Because of the way we measure things, it doesn't make sense to do what makes sense," he said.
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"My sense is over the last 20 years the American economy has generated about one-third the number of empowering innovations as was historically the case," he said. What's the potential toll of all this lost innovation on the future of the country? Christensen hypothesized: "If you want to know what the future of America looks like, just look at Japan. You can feel the same thing happen in the United States, and I worry a lot about that.""

Recordar "Sobre a paranóia da eficiência e do eficientismo"

Trecho retirado de "Clay Christensen: The Wrong Kind of Innovation BY Christine Lagorio-Chafkin"

No país da espiral recessiva

"Economia portuguesa terá crescido no terceiro trimestre"

"Os dados oficiais só serão conhecidos em meados de Novembro, mas o Governo diz à SIC que o produto interno bruto (PIB) nacional voltou a crescer no terceiro trimestre do ano."

"Economia da Zona Euro registou em Setembro a maior aceleração em 27 meses"

""Os últimos dados PMI assinalam o mais forte crescimento da actividade da zona euro em 27 meses no terceiro trimestre de 2013." 

Para reflexão

Em "How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story" pode ler-se:

""The export sector doesn't have a long future," says Deng Zerong, Yantian's new Communist Party secretary, and—according to local legend—a distant relative of the late Deng Xiaoping, the former leader known for opening China's economy to the outside world after years of isolation.
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Yantian's challenges offer a microcosmic view of the problems today facing China.
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Rising wages and a Chinese currency that has gained 34% against the dollar since 2005 have both taken a toll.
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Hideo Aoyagi, the general manager of a Japanese firm that employs close to 4,000 workers in the town, has felt the economic tremors. Wage costs, he says, are up 40% since 2007."

Acerca do futuro das universidades

"Increasingly, we believe university leaders will challenge the university as a whole, and individual departments, to answer the question, ‘What’s so special about you?’. In other words, universities and departments will need to justify their existence – just ticking over won’t be good enough.
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4. Much of the value added won’t be content
As content becomes ubiquitous and, in each area, the world’s leading universities or authorities become its providers, the content of a course will cease to be a decisive factor. Instead, it will be a matter of what a university and its faculty build around the content – for example, the quality of teaching  and mentorship, the nature of facilitated dialogue between students (which could be global), or indeed the type of assessment and the path from university into the labour market. There is tremendous room here for innovation which universities can embark on right away, with limited risk.
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8. As the monopoly over awarding degrees breaks down, universities need to consider their true value
Generally-speaking, universities were founded to be regional or national institutions, but they find themselves operating, thanks to the mobility of talent and the ubiquity of technology, in a global market. The power to award a degree is conferred by state or national governments and the restrictions on access to this power have enabled universities to protect their position – until now. With students shopping globally, with online degrees – which might be offered from any country – becoming widely available and with commercial organisations seeking the power too, this protection is weakening, perhaps vanishing.
As a result, universities will have to look at what they offer"

Trechos retirados de "An Avalanche is Coming"

Sintomas da espiral recessiva

A espiral recessiva continua a apertar "Portugal lidera subida nas vendas a retalho na União Europeia":

"As vendas a retalho em Portugal aumentaram 4,8% em Portugal no mês de Agosto, face a Julho deste ano, o que representa o maior aumento entre todos os países da União Europeia, de acordo com o relatório divulgado esta quinta-feira pelo Eurostat.
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Depois de ter registado o maior crescimento no PIB do segundo trimestre, a economia portuguesa tem dado sinais de que a recuperação da recessão se manteve no terceiro trimestre, com vários indicadores a darem sinais positivos."

Criatividade e 6 sigma

"Insight is the opposite of predictable. Insights are disruptive. They come without warning, take forms that are unexpected, and open up unimagined opportunities. They are disorganizing. Insights disrupt progress reviews because they reshape tasks and even revise goals. They carry risks —unseen pitfalls that can get managers in trouble.
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Creativity was connected in the participants’ minds with uncertainty. When people were motivated to reduce uncertainty they gave lower evaluations to creative ideas. Managers dislike uncertainty and unpredictability, and therefore distrust creativity. (Moi ici: Impossível não relacionar logo com o que aconteceu à 3M quando se meteu com os 6 Sigma)
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The perfection trap is to try to reduce or eliminate errors. Organizations naturally gravitate towards reducing errors. Errors are easy to define, easy to measure, and relatively easy to manage.
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The quest for perfection, error-free performance, is right up there with the quest for predictability. These are both inherent in running an organization that depends on managing people and projects. In well-ordered situations, with clear goals and standards, and stable conditions, the pursuit of perfection makes sense. But not when we face complex and chaotic conditions. (Moi ici: A vantagem dos latinos sobre os anglo-saxónicos está aqui)
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Managers know how to spot errors. They don’t know how to encourage insights other than hanging inspirational posters on the walls.
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Unfortunately, the actions that organizations take to reduce errors can actually impede insights. They drain the attention and energy of the employees into error-reduction rituals that crowd out the mindset needed for insights."

Trechos retirados de "Insights Vs. Organizations"

Século XX versus século XXI

Um texto tão ao gosto deste blogue:

"A series of breakthrough technologies and new business models are destroying the old rule that bigger is better.  ...  The global business environment is decomposing into smaller yet more profitable markets, (Moi ici: A caminho do Estranhistão) so businesses can no longer rely on scaling up to compete, but must instead embrace a new economies of unscale.
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These new economies of unscale will be good for job growth, because they open up thousands of new market niches for exploitation.
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 in a world with economies of unscale, we are empowered to take advantage of an extensive array of new, amazing services to build sustainable companies.  The coming world is a world of fragmented niches, many with immense profit potential, as we start to discover products that better meet the needs of this varied world."

Tudo o que pregamos aqui há vários anos!!!
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Já ouviram algum membro da tríade falar sobre isto?
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Não, continuam embalados na testosterona, por exemplo:

"diz que com esta fusão há a ambição de estar ... também "entre os maiores"."

Ou, por exemplo "Mas claro, eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província"

Trechos retirados de "Economies of Unscale: Why Business Has Never Been Easier for the Little Guy"

Congelado?

A propósito de "Poupar sem ser por medo".
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Até parece que o dinheiro poupado fica congelado numa conta bancária...

Acerca da diferenciação

"BEING IN THE MARKETPLACE today is easy, but being found and selected is not.
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Too many businesses think they are distinct because they see themselves as different.
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1. First and foremost, how a business sees itself or wants to be seen is irrelevant. It’s the customer’s perspective that matters. 

1. Second, and just as important, being different is not the same as having a distinctive presence. Difference in and of itself is polarizing. Emphasizing what makes a company “different” immediately invites competitive comparisons. Consumers measure and evaluate so-called differences against their other options.

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When a business is truly distinctive—by being solely customer-focused—customers flock to it."

Trecho retirado de "The Power of Why" de Richard Weylman

Por que é que eles continuam a ser não-clientes?

Identificaram os clientes-alvo, traçaram o seu perfil e, contudo, eles continuam a ser não-clientes.
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Por que é que eles continuam a ser não-clientes?
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Uma boa ajuda para reflexão pode começar aqui:

"The key is to segment according to reasons for not buying products in your category.   In my experience, these typically fall into one of six categories:
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Economic:  People lack access to cash or credit
Functional:  The product does not help people achieve what they want to achieve
Educational: People don’t know how to use the product or even what it can do
Access: People can’t buy the product because it is not readily available to them
Social: The product doesn’t conform to religious or social norms
Emotional: The product triggers negative emotions."

Trecho retirado de "Implementing Innovation: Segment Your Non-Customers"

Mongo e a Saúde

Já por várias vezes aqui referi a que é que nos leva a ausência de pensamento estratégico na saúde pública, e privada também, por exemplo aqui, "Monho e a Medicina"

"Os eficientistas e as corporações apreciam o fenómeno da concentração da medicina em mega-instituições... tão ao jeito do século XX"

Por isso, é com um sorriso que encontro este texto tão ao jeito de Mongo e das sociedades que vão prosperar no século XXI:

"The attempts to “fix” the U.S. healthcare system have taken at least one well-worn market-based path: strive for economies of scale. Hospital consolidation is on the rise, a trend that shows no signs of abating as providers try to streamline back-end operations and deploy big data analytics in hopes of improving outcomes and lowering costs. Businesses try this every day.
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However some primary care physicians are looking at the exact opposite approach: de-scaling and taking cost out by radically simplifying their practices as a way to make them clinically, financially, and personally sustainable. (Moi ici: Profissionais liberais, não funcionários, Isto é tão Mongo!!!)
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What makes these practices different?  1) Each is based on relationship quality rather than production volume; as a result, each is smaller than the average U.S. practice; 2) Visits are longer and the doctor may provide a broader range of services with minimal support staff; 3) They have business plans that demonstrate how their model can be financially sustainable; and 4) Each used their variation on the general model to offer greater satisfaction to their patients as well as to their own personal and professional lives."

Interessante este ponto:

"Patient experience is the critical variable for both controlling costs, improving outcomes, and keeping physician caseload manageable." 

Trechos retirados de "Reimagining Primary Care: When Small Is Beautiful"
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BTW, a Educação vai pelo mesmo caminho com a fusão de universidades e a constituição dos agrupamentos escolares.

"A very important lesson for all of us"

"Giants are not as strong and powerful as they seem, and some times a shepherd-boy has a sling in his pocket"

Mais notícias da espiral recessiva

• "Vendas do mercado automóvel português cresceram quase 15% em Setembro"
• "Consumo de electricidade volta a subir em Setembro e reduz queda anual para 0,3%"

A revolução em curso

"The owner, the Airtex Design Group, had shifted an increasing amount of its production here from China because customers had been asking for more American-made goods.
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The issue was finding workers.
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The American textile and apparel industries, like manufacturing as a whole, are experiencing a nascent turnaround as apparel and textile companies demand higher quality, more reliable scheduling and fewer safety problems than they encounter overseas.
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Wages for cut-and-sew jobs, the core of the apparel industry’s remaining work force, have been rising fast — increasing 13.2 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis from 2007 to 2012, while overall private sector pay rose just 1.4 percent. Companies here in Minnesota are so hungry for workers that they posted five job openings for every student in a new training program in industrial sewing, a full month before the training was even completed.
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Like manufacturers in many parts of the country, those in Minnesota are wrestling with how to attract a new generation of factory workers while also protecting their bottom lines in an industry where pennies per garment can make or break a business."

Este artigo "A Wave of Sewing Jobs as Orders Pile Up at U.S. Factories" deixa-me com sentimentos mistos.
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Vamos ao lado positivo, o reshoring e o consequente aumento do emprego, a iniciativa privada assumir como sua a tarefa de formar e preparar os seus futuros trabalhadores.
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O lado negativo... ressoa na minha mente aquela frase "The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, you're still a rat".
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Se não notamos um refluxo da maré na Europa, em Portugal ou na Europa de Leste, ou até mesmo em Marrocos com esta dinâmica e dimensão... talvez isto diga muito sobre a desvalorização real do dólar.
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BTW, na Turquia assiste-se a isto "50 Turkish textile companies to relocate to Ethiopia" com este nível de salários.

Acerca da evolução do desemprego

Em plena espiral recessiva temos "Taxa de desemprego em Portugal desce pelo sexto mês consecutivo".
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Os critérios usados pelo Eurostat são diferentes dos do IEFP; contudo, se calhar os valores do desemprego de Setembro de 2013 vão ser inferiores aos valores do desemprego em Setembro de 2012, uma descida homóloga que não se via desde há muitos meses... ou talvez não, com o afluxo de professores que não arranjaram colocação.

Estratégia não é...

Uma versão da via negativa aplicada à estratégia, ou seja, o que é que a estratégia não é:

"1.They define strategy as a vision. Mission and vision statements are elements of strategy, but they aren’t enough. They offer no guide to productive action and no explicit road map to the desired future.
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2.They define strategy as a plan. Plans and tactics are also elements of strategy, but they aren’t enough either.
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3.They deny that long-term (or even medium-term) strategy is possible. The world is changing so quickly, some leaders argue, that it’s impossible to think about strategy in advance and that, instead, a firm should respond to new threats and opportunities as they emerge.
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4.They define strategy as the optimization of the status quo. Many leaders try to optimize what they are already doing in their current business. This can create efficiency and drive some value. But it isn’t strategy.
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5.They define strategy as following best practices. Every industry has tools and practices that become widespread and generic. Some organizations define strategy as benchmarking against competition and then doing the same set of activities but more effectively. Sameness isn’t strategy. It is a recipe for mediocrity.
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These ineffective approaches are driven by a misconception of what strategy really is and a reluctance to make truly hard choices. It is natural to want to keep options open as long as possible, rather than closing off possibilities by making explicit choices. But it is only through making and acting on choices that you can win. Yes, clear, tough choices force your hand and confine you to a path. But they also free you to focus on what matters. What matters is winning."

Trechos retirados de "PLaying to Win" de Lafley e Roger Martin
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BTW, neste tópico sobre as escolhas "But it is only through making and acting on choices that you can win.", é fundamental pensar no timing. Ás vezes, é preciso esperar que algo apareça, que algo aconteça. Escrevi isto influenciado por isto:

"Para já, Costa não sabe o que há de fazer. Espera um dia em que tudo se torne mais claro."

E isso, levou-me a isto:

"He just smiled and said, “I am going to wait for the next big thing.” 

Claro que ele não ficou literalmente à espera, o ipod não caiu do céu.

Um sector que é um exemplo

Não é comum esta clareza, este auto-conhecimento; quem são os clientes-alvo?

"O sucesso internacional deve-se à aposta "em nichos de mercado como os sapatos de golfe" e no uso do sistema Goodyear nas solas dos sapatos. Dirigem-se a consumidores com elevado poder de compra - cada par de sapatos custa entre 250 e 450 euros - e a facturação anual ronda os oito milhões de euros.
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Fazemos calçado desde o número 15 ao 36 e distinguimos-nos pela variedade de feitios e de cores. São 90 modelos diferentes'
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às vezes temos de desfazer o sapato todo, antes de o enviar, para que possa ser personalizado
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A crise levou-nos a ser mais criterioso na escolha dos parceiros. Mantemos uma facturação de 2,6 milhões de euros anuais mas temos aumentado a rentabilidade.
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O preço é um factor competitivo, mas deixou há muito de ser a principal característica do calçado português: "Nunca poderemos competir com países como a China, por isso apostamos na qualidade"."

Trechos retirados de "À conquista dos pés do Mundo"

Criar uma categoria

Como eu gosto disto "'Category of one' is a choice"
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Em 2004 estive envolvido num projecto onde vivi esta escolha.
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Avançar e criar uma categoria, fugir da competição desenfreada por migalhas e apostar no valor.

O "Princípio do Pai Natal"

Autor da frase João César das Neves no programa "Contas Certas" na RTP Informação esta noite.
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Mesmo que a dívida desaparecesse, o défice continuava.
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Como se arranjaria dinheiro para pagar o défice?
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O Pai Natal apareceria para pagar.