Acerca do futuro dos gigantes

Leram "Para reflexão"?
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Era sobre uma PME.
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Ao ler "Corporate Longevity: Turbulence Ahead for Large Organizations" não pude deixar de fazer um paralelismo com a situação destes gigantes que fazem parte do S&P 500. Estes gigantes, apesar do seu poder e dos recursos que têm ao seu dispor terão de enfrentar uma erosão provocada pelo advento de Mongo, pela democratização da produção, pelo DIY, pelas tribos, pela diversidade, pelo fim do poder das economias de escala, pela ascensão da criatividade e do numerador, pela ascensão da interacção e co-criação de valor.

"* The 33-year average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 in 1965 narrowed to 20 years in 1990 and is forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026.
* Record M&A activity and the growth of startups with multi-billion dollar  valuations are leading indicators that a period of relative stability is ending and that an increasing number of corporate leaders will lose control of their firm’s future.
* A storm warning to executives: at our forecasted churn rate, about half of the S&P 500 will be replaced over the next 10 years.
* In a related survey on strategic readiness, executives say that growth strategy is being undermined by day-to-day decisions inside companies and that too many companies lack a coherent vision of the future."

Os gigantes criados pelo modelo do século XX serão cada vez em menor número e mais pequenos, porque no século XXI a massa de clientes/consumidores centrais será cada vez menor. Recordar o plankton e o "we are all weird".

"We’re entering a period of heightened volatility for leading companies across a range of industries, with the next ten years shaping up to be the most potentially turbulent in modern history."

Não creio que os CEO tenham capacidade de inverter este futuro de longo prazo. Por exemplo, especulo que a tendência crescente das empresas cotadas na bolsa americana, não encontrarem melhor aplicação para o seu dinheiro do que a compra de acções próprias é já uma manifestação deste fenómeno.

Mais um sintoma do Estranhistão

Há dias, este tweet do @armando_moreira:

Demographics are dead by @HealthClubKate and other macro trends.

— Armando Moreira (@armando_moreira) August 28, 2015

Levou-me até ao número de Agosto da revista Health Club Management e ao seu editorial "Demographics are dead":

"It’s no longer possible to predict consumer behaviour based on long-accepted demographic norms – age, gender, income and so on.
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Consumers are no longer behaving as they ‘should’ according to demographic categories, choosing instead to construct their own identities and lifestyles around individual preferences and interests. This in turn has a profound impact on businesses, which must go back to the drawing board to re-assess who their audience really is and what their expectations are.
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the shift away from demonstrating status through material possessions, towards status as a product of who you are and what you do. Consumers today are looking for brands to help them achieve this
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So can your club be the partner that helps someone achieve the status of completing a marathon or Color Run? [Moi ici: Qual é o JTBD?]"

E ao artigo "Breaking the MOULD":

"Is your business ready for post-demographic consumerism?
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Confused? You should be: consumers are increasingly behaving in ways we least expect. These examples give glimpses into one of the most important shifts in consumerism of modern times, and one that will require a fundamental overhaul of the demographic-focused approach that businesses have used to understand and predict consumer behaviour for decades.
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we’re entering an age of post-demographic consumerism: one in which the traditional demographic segments – age, gender, income bracket, nationality and more – are becoming less meaningful as predictors of consumer behaviour. Instead, consumers are freer than ever to construct identities and lifestyles of their own choosing."

Mais um sintoma do Estranhistão, há cada vez mais gente fora da caixa tão querida ao Normalistão. Por isso, pensar em nichos, em tribos e em JTBD.

"Can Artists Be Entrepreneurs? Absolutely"

Em sintonia com Mongo:

"According to a number of business authorities, morphing your personal talent and passionate interest into a full-time business is a terrible plan. But a growing number of artists and creative entrepreneurs disagree. Research supports their position. About 34% of US artists are self-employed, according to the Kauffman Foundation. (Translation: entrepreneurs.) Contrary to the stereotype of “starving artists” who’ve given up hope of life’s comforts, a burgeoning category of creative entrepreneurs are building wealth, creating jobs and becoming a major force in national and global economies.[Moi ici: Tudo a ver com Mongo, com a ascensão das tribos, com o triunfo do Estranhistão onde "we are all weird" e orgulhosos disso]
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In the UK, for example, the creative economy grew in 2007 at twice the rate of the rest of the economy and has been pegged as the second highest contributor to GDP.
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Thanks to the Internet and explosive growth of the “freelance economy’” thousands of creatives are dispelling the notion that adulation and wealth is available for only a few. [Moi ici: Ainda na semana passada, ao ver o trabalho de artista de um amigo, desafiei-o, com sucesso, a desenharmos um canvas de um modelo de negócio, para fazer do hobby um negócio a sério] And beyond the renowned talents that embody the title of artist lies the well of participants who serve as dealers, brokers, teachers, agents, managers, writers and publishers in the business of art (which applies to music, dance and theater, too). Others divert from the role of artist to “artisans,” as some would describe them, who create or paint on commission or devise ways to translate their creativity into products they can sell and deliver en masse."

O artigo fica mesmo bom quando começa a caracterizar o trabalho destes artistas/artesãos:

"Demand is uncertain. ... the demand for the product will lie in the eye of market beholder. It will be up to the artist to find or create the ideal audience in order to create market traction while also remaining true to their artistic sensibilities and personal goals.
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Creative workers care about their product. An artist’s passion for her product may be one of the most compelling drives for the business; however the artist’s passion can make her less objective in her plans for advancing the business. These are factors you must take into account.
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Some creative products require diverse skills. Taken to an extreme, for example, the unique ability to channel inspiration or energy may be a skill that resides with the artist alone. The more unique the offerings, the more challenging it will be for the production of the service or product to scale.
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Differentiated products. Beyond other industries, artistic products are unique, which will create both advantages and disadvantages as the artist works to communicate his offering to the audiences that he is working to find and to grow.
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Vertically differentiated skills. Metallurgy? Manufacturing? Unique production, such as the creation of artesanal vinegars? (Yes, this is a business being created by of one of our mutual friends). The skills an artist’s business requires may be challenging to learn or to find."

No século XX, século da normalização, século da produção em massa, o emprego era uma coisa. Em Mongo, acredito que voltaremos a um tipo de ocupação pré-industrial, em muitas áreas económicas. Artistas e artesãos, munidos da internet, farão a diferença, mesmo com o auxílio de tecnologia de produção.
Trechos retirados de "Can Artists Be Entrepreneurs? Absolutely"

Acerca da evolução da competição (parte II)

Quando em "Acerca da evolução da competição" escrevi:

"Em próximo postal voltarei a Favaro e à minha reflexão pessoal sobre a evolução da estratégia."

Ainda não tinha lido "Terroir" de Seth Godin:

"Heinz ketchup has no terroir. It always tastes like everywhere and nowhere and the same. A Dijon mustard from a small producer in France, though, you can taste where it came from. Foodies seek out this distinction in handcrafted chocolate or wine or just about anything where the land and environment are thought to matter.
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But we can extend the idea to you, to your work, to the thing you're building.
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It's not like anyplace else. It's not like everyplace else.
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Consistent doesn't mean, "like everybody else."[Moi ici: Cá está o ponto que eu critico na Qualidade, a demasiada concentração na normalização]  Consistent in this case means, "like yourself." If we took just one drop of your work and your reputation and the trail you leave behind, could we reconstruct the rest of it?
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The pressure on each of us to fit in, to industrialize, to be more like Heinz--it's huge. But to do so is to lose the essence of what we make."

Terroir é uma palavra que o meu pai me ensinou acerca dos vinhos e da sua diferenciação... é uma palavra que vai ficar a fazer parte do léxico deste blogue e do meu trabalho. O que eu pensava acerca das palavras de Favaro, reforçado com o texto de Godin é o que relato aqui "O meio pode albergar posições intermédias viáveis".

A marca do século XXI

Tantas ideias que tenho em mente para este postal que, sem disciplina, daria para um longo capítulo de um livro sobre Mongo.

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O material começou a ser recolhido na passada quinta-feira, durante uma viagem de comboio ao princípio da noite, com a leitura de "Protecting IP from 3D Printing: What Companies Need to Know".

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O autor parte do exemplo de como a indústria musical não se soube proteger do digital, para dar conselhos às empresas grandes sobre como protegerem a sua propriedade intelectual, num mundo em que os bits comandam a adição de átomos, através das impressoras 3D.

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Quando li o texto no Cabinet, escrevi:

Então, perante o advento das impressoras 3D em cada casa, em cada bairro, em cada Staples, em cada Worten, o autor só pensa em copiar, só pensa que as pessoas vão copiar!?!?!?! Come on! Copiar é burrice, a produção numa impressora 3D é mais cara que a produção em massa.

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Depois, sexta ao fim da tarde, no Twitter, descobri este gráfico:

Em 1875 existiam nos Estado Unidos mais de 3500 produtores independentes de cerveja. Depois, o comboio, a Revolução Industrial, a produção em massa, o marketing de massas, e a consolidação eficientista começaram a concentrar a produção em cada vez menos produtores, cada vez maiores e mais eficientes. Então, o presidente James Carter, nos anos 70 do século passado, publica uma lei que liberaliza a produção, permitindo que pequenas unidades independentes possam produzir e comercializar cerveja. E foi um Big Bang!!! 

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Agora, em 2015, o número de produtores de cerveja volta ao nível de 1875 e os produtores independentes já representam 11% do mercado.

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Apesar do poder do marketing, apesar da eficiência, cada vez mais gente opta por beber cerveja artesanal. E a cerveja artesanal, copia os sabores dos produtores grandes?

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Não! A sua força está na variedade, na experimentação, no sabor.

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Ainda ontem à tarde, durante uma caminhada, encontrei este artigo sobre as impressoras 3D em África, "The 3D printing revolution":

"In February, a young Togolese entrepreneur, Afate Gnikou, stunned the world by winning first prize at the 10th International Conference of Barcelona’s Fabrication Laboratory. The winning technology was a 3D printer. The design did not come from one of Africa’s top universities or research institutes. Gnikou and his team assembled their prize-winning printer from electronic waste collected in dumpsites around the Togolese capital of Lomé.
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The technology turns traditional manufacturing upside down. Instead of centres of mass production, it makes possible decentralised production by the masses.[Moi ici: Voltar atrás e reler este parágrafo]
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The potential for printing other household products is only limited by people’s imagination and the size of the printer.
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The power of 3D printing lies in tapping into local needs and inspiring creativity. It does not require formal structures to do this, and everyone can participate in the technology. For example, 3D printing can enable rural women to rapidly prototype agricultural tools adapted to their culture, cropping systems and environments."

Em "We Are All Weird - Um manifesto sobre Mongo" sublinho, com as palavras de Seth Godin, algo que escapa a muita gente.:

"The mass market — which made average products for average people  was invented by organizations that needed to keep their factories and systems running efficiently.
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Stop for a second and think about the backwards nature of that sentence.
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The factory came first. It led to the mass market. Not the other way around."

Com as impressoras 3D, com a cultura DIY, com a IoT ou IoE, com a democratização da produção, com a criatividade em acção, por que haverão as pessoas de copiar o que as empresas grandes vão oferecer? Os prosumers vão ignorar a oferta da massa, como os consumidores de cerveja artesanal fogem do "lowest common denominator"
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Esta é a revolução que vai marcar o século XXI, o fim da massa:

"mass market. About mass politics, mass production, mass retailing, and even mass education.
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The defining idea of the twentieth century, more than any other, was mass.
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Mass gave us efficiency and productivity,
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And now mass is dying.
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We see it fighting back, clawing to control conversations and commerce and politics. But it will fail; it must. The tide has turned, and mass as the engine of our culture is gone forever."

Não vai ser fácil, muita gente que trabalha no mercado de massas, que vive do mercado de massas, que imposta o mercado de massas, vai rebelar-se contra a possibilidade de uma liberalização económica anárquica, local, relacional, co-criativa.
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Seria interessante ter um POTUS libertário... nesta altura chave do processo.

"É um momento extraordinário, que está a chocalhar tudo"

Estão a ver a metáfora que uso aqui no blogue sobre estarmos a entranharmos-nos num mundo económico a que chamo Mongo?
Mongo é o recuar da maré da Revolução Industrial, da globalização, da produção em massa. Uma mudança de paradigma que afecta empresas, empregos, educação, governos, modelos de negócio, ...

"Qual é o problema de fundo?.
Um deles é estarmos a viver um dos períodos mais extraordinários da história mundial. É um momento extraordinário, que está a chocalhar tudo. Está a arrancar milhões da pobreza todos os anos. Está a criar novas oportunidades nos sítios mais extraordinários, desde o lado político, com o descongelamento do Leste, à informática. Só que isso implica uma grande dificuldade de ajustamento. Estão a desaparecer muitas profissões – e as que não desaparecem estão a mudar radicalmente: a vossa, a minha.
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É a nossa Revolução Industrial?.
Exactamente. É mais um período áureo da história do mundo. Mas os períodos áureos só são áureos à distância, porque no momento em que decorrem custam muito. A Revolução Industrial, que foi excelente, doeu muito às pessoas que lá estavam. Hoje estamos a passar por um período difícil. Estamos a ajustar a nossa economia a uma realidade nova. E isso cria uma enorme quantidade de consequências, do desemprego ao desajustamento industrial. Esse é o problema de fundo."

Trechos retirados de "João César das Neves aposta mais em Portugal do que na Europa"

E porque não somos plankton (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V.

Li este texto há dias "“Downsizing” as 21st Century Bloodletting"
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É claro que concordo com a sua principal mensagem. Contudo, ia deixá-lo passar sem o referir porque compreendo que em certas circunstâncias, mesmo numa PME, por vezes a resposta passa, também, embora nunca exclusivamente, por despedimentos.
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No entanto, a leitura de um aforismo recolhido por Nassim Taleb, fez-me centrar a leitura do texto de Mintzberg naquilo que defendo neste blogue com a metáfora de Mongo:

"XVIII 187. There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it."

Se acredito que estamos a caminho de um modelo económico baseado em PME, baseado em prosumers, baseado no DIY, baseado em diferenciação numa escala de variedade como nunca vimos, baseado em tribos de excêntricos fora da caixa, Mongo onde "we are all weird"; então, tenho de perceber aquela reacção que Mintzberg deplora, como uma resposta a esta corrente. Uma resposta estúpida, claro, porque não altera nada que permita reduzir o desajustamento, ainda o acentua mais porque baseada na eficiência. Uma alternativa é a seguida pela P&G (como contada na série "porque não somos plankton") embora creia que se trata apenas de comprar tempo para atrasar o desfecho final.
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Em tempos Tom Peters escreveu no Twitter:

"To BIG to CARE!"

Só conhecem um caminho para o sucesso: a eficiência.

A produtividade perigosa

Quem já pesquisou produtividade neste blogue sabe que existem duas formas de aumentar a produtividade:

Aumentando as margens, trabalhando o numerador, apostando na eficácia, o caminho menos percorrido. Ou, diminuindo os custos, trabalhando o denominador, apostando na eficiência, o caminho mais percorrido e mais conhecido.
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No tempo da escassez, no tempo do mercado de massas, não fazia sentido pensar em margens, quando se falava de produtividade. Nesse tempo, produtividade media-se em número de unidades produzidas por unidade de tempo. Hoje, a caminho de Mongo, quando "we are all weird" já não faz sentido pensar assim.
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Aqui vai a última reflexão de Mintzberg, sobre a produtividade, um tema tão caro a este blogue, em "Productive and Destructive Productivity":

"I came to the conclusion that there are two kinds of productivity, one productive, the other destructive. The problem is that economists can’t tell the difference."

Mongo, Estranhistão, Weirdistão

Há anos que cunhei a designação de Mongo para significar o modelo do século XXI, por contraponto a Metropolis, ou Magnitogrado, para significar o modelo da escala, do volume, da eficiência, da linha de montagem, do século XX.
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Mongo é um conceito teórico, é uma abstracção. Eu sei o que quero dizer com a designação mas a sua abstracção não ajude a tornar concreto o impacte da democratização da produção para o modo de vida, para o modo de organização da sociedade, para o emprego, para os impostos, para as empresas, para a economia, para o marketing, para a educação formal centralizada a que chamamos universidades.
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Hoje, li algo que me surpreendeu pelo impacte que teve em mim, porque ajudou a concretizar o que é isso de Mongo, ajudou a arranjar uma referência que permite fazer uma comparação. E essa comparação chocou-me, não estava preparado para o embate, apesar de falar e escrever sobre Mongo:

"3-D printing is starting to do something amazing. The technology is transforming physical stuff into data, much the way digital technology over the past 20 years changed things like newspapers and phone calls into data.
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Once anything turns into data, it becomes cheap and easy to send anywhere over networks, and cheap and easy for anyone to manipulate using software. So imagine a world where physical stuff - chairs, shoes, sex toys, Jeeps - can be sent around the world instantly and at almost zero cost. And imagine a world where the design of those chairs, shoes, sex toys or Jeeps could be altered and customized by any suburban mom on her iPad while fighting boredom at her kid’s soccer game.
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Another effect of turning stuff into data will be mass customization. You may never again have to own anything that looks like anybody else’s.
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Because the products are data, they don’t have to be static. The designers can constantly tweak them in response to customer input. “It’s iterative—I’ve seen some products go through 30 versions in a couple of months
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“Everybody’s empowered to solve their own problems,” he says.
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Industrial-scale 3D printing will get increasingly sophisticated, rendering one physical thing after another into data that can be sent anywhere, modified by anyone, and printed and assembled locally. In another decade, shoes, chairs, bicycles or who knows what else will become data.
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[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é aquele que motivou o texto inicial deste postal acerca da surpresa] There’s an industrial side to this, too. This process is going to open up physical-product industries the way the Internet and blogs opened up the business of news. [Moi ici: Basta recordar as imagens da redacção do Daily Planet com centenas de pessoas e o que é uma redacção hoje. Ou comparar a bosta que muitos jornais clássicos produzem, com a excelência que projectos digitais conseguem atingir. Ou comparar como, num mundo cada vez com mais informação, cada vez menos gente comprar jornais. O mundo do cidadão jornalista. O mundo do cidadão prosumer... ] ... “New tools for democratized production are boosting innovation and entrepreneurship in manufacturing, in the same way that the Internet and cloud computing have lowered the barriers to entry for digital startups.”"

Trecho retirado de "3-D Printing Will Make Your Stuff Data, and Then Make It Unique" [Moi ici: O que importa reter é o "make it unique"]

Design e bestsellers em Mongo

 Lembrei-me dos "Tão novos e já tão velhos..." ao ler "Most design brands "will disappear" within five years says Stefano Giovannoni":

"Designers need to start acting more like entrepreneurs, Giovannoni said, moving away from the current model whereby they jump from brand to brand, producing products that are barely distinguishable from each other.
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"If we consider the last 20 years, the most interesting experience has been made by designers who created their own brand,"
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Also the future of design – I think the usual system where a designer works with different companies is at the end. Today it is a little bit ridiculous. If you look at the design fairs, every company – I am out of this kind of system because I never wished to design furniture. I cut furniture out of my work from the beginning.
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But it's ridiculous to see all the companies today work with the same designers."

Desapontador, é falar sobre isto:

"What is really interesting, and I think this is something to analyse deeply, is what do we mean today by a bestselling product. In the past, 10 to 15 years ago, a bestselling product was a product which could play at the best quality and price, so was a product to sell in huge quantities – a real industrial design product.
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Today, the bestselling products for companies are products with a very high price, which do sell not in huge quantities – a few thousand pieces – but the price is ten times higher than in the past.[Moi ici: Como é mesmo o truque em Mongo?]
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So this nature of the bestseller has changed completely in the last 10 years. The problem today is that the companies don't produce any more real products. [Moi ici: Falha de análise completa!!!] It would be very interesting to investigate what happened inside the companies. But according to my experience, 10 years ago good products, which could sell two to three million euros a year, were many. Today there are less and less. It means the market has reached saturation, that the company has no more the energy to produce and that the investment is lower. This is a fact."

Sem nunca se referir ou intuir o efeito de Mongo, o advento do Estranhistão onde "we are all weird and proud of it", e cada um pertence a uma tribo. O fim do mass market é uma inevetibalidade independente do maior ou menor esforço das empresas.
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BTW, importante também a previsão de que no futuro todos os produtores quererão eliminar o intermediário e vender directamente ao consumidor.

De volta à velha Atenas, a minha previsão

Nem de propósito. Ontem à noite, já depois de ter escrito "Cuidado com as previsões", encontrei "Learning to Become Athenians":

"After two or three centuries during which manufacturing consolidated into larger and larger enterprises, technology is now restoring opportunities for the lone craftsman making things at home—with extraordinary consequences for careers and lifestyles.
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In classical Athens, with no industrial machinery and much of the work done by slaves whose maintenance costs were identical and whose capital costs reflected their skills, it was not possible to get an advantage in costs or in capital utilization. To compete successfully, you had to differentiate your product to make it worth more than your competitors’.
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The nature of a society in which most households participate, at least occasionally, in making goods is radically different from the world we are used to.
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The industrial revolution changed the economics of manufacturing by creating new forms of advantage based upon operating costs and capital investment. Starting in the eighteenth century, the lower costs offered by mechanization, mass production, and shared information drove production into fewer and larger units, and the amateur craftsman in the family workshop was squeezed almost out of existence.
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The nature of a society in which most households participate, at least occasionally, in making goods is radically different from the world we are used to. For citizens in ancient Athens, casual manufacturing was a vital income-earning component in a portfolio of activity. The industrial revolution changed the economics of manufacturing by creating new forms of advantage based upon operating costs and capital investment. Now, though, the information revolution is reversing the consolidating effect of the industrial revolution.
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After two or three centuries during which manufacturing consolidated into larger and larger enterprises, technology is now restoring opportunities for the lone craftsman making things at home—with extraordinary consequences for careers and lifestyles. The powerful trends toward making things oneself and choosing freelance careers over full-time employment recreate some of the economic and social dynamics of Athens between 500 and 300 B.C.—and pose important challenges to businesses and society. If we understand the forces behind the changes in industry structure since those times, we will have a better sense of how and why the dynamics of that structure are reversing and what that might mean for our daily lives.
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To build a large business, you have to win more volume than others in a competitive marketplace; this means having an advantage your competitors cannot match. For a competitive advantage to be of value, it must be manifested in one of the elements of return on capital: revenues, costs, or capital employed. In classical Athens, with no industrial machinery and much of the work done by slaves whose maintenance costs were identical and whose capital costs reflected their skills, it was not possible to get an advantage in costs or in capital utilization. To compete successfully, you had to differentiate your product to make it worth more than your competitors’.
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For a huge range of other products, which made up most of consumption—such as everyday clothes, basic ceramics, simple metalwork, and carpentry—there was no basis for differentiation. Almost all Athenian citizen households would have family members or slaves who made clothes. Some might make a surplus to sell; other households would have to buy some clothing. Many would have made simple wooden, ceramic, or metal objects for their own use and sometimes to exchange with neighbors or sell in the marketplace.
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The nature of a society in which most households participate, at least occasionally, in making goods is radically different from the world we are used to. ... By reducing their expenditures and bringing in some income through making simple household products, Athenian citizens managed to enjoy a rich and varied life. They had time to go to the theater and games, and some evidently had time to philosophize.
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The implications for the individual, for society, and for manufacturing companies are significant. For the individual, the restoration of competitive equality between the home craftsperson and the large factory creates real opportunities for the freelance lifestyle that many young people aspire to. As Forbes reported last year, 60 percent of Millennials in the U.S. stay fewer than three years in a job and 45 percent would prefer more flexibility to more pay.  In a recent survey, 87 percent of UK graduates with first- or second-class degrees saw freelancing as highly attractive, and 85 percent believe freelancing will become the norm.
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Some manufacturing businesses will face a completely new challenge, one in which the stock weapons of increasing efficiency and reducing costs will be of little use. Few makers will recognize the opportunity cost of their time in a very businesslike way, given the psychic rewards they find in exercising their craft. Now that the other components of cost (procurement of raw materials, training and product development expenses, marketing investment, and energy) are available at rates not much different from those achieved by large enterprises, would-be makers will not be deterred by price cuts from established players."

Parece que o BCG andou a ler este blogue!!!
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Está aqui tudo!!!
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Amostra:

• Indie capitalism e Mongo!!! (Dezembro 2011)
• Um mundo de artesãos... (Janeiro 2012)
• Alfaiates e modistas: o modelo de negócio do futuro (Dezembro 2012)
• Pós-industrial vs industrial, com uns laivos de pré-industrial (Janeiro 2013)
• O regresso lento mas persistente do semi-industrial (Fevereiro 2014)
• Interessante, nestes tempos de Amazon, Mongo cresce (Janeiro 2015)

Conseguem imaginar as implicações desta mudança? Na educação, na cobrança de impostos, no retalho, nos transportes, nas comunidades, na humanização do mercado, no cálculo e interpretação das estatísticas, na circulação do dinheiro, ...

Delicioso

Um outro Miguel mandou-me este delicioso vídeo "Monocle Presents "Made in London""

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Mais makers, mais adeptos de Mongo, mais gente que aposta na produção para tribos, mais gente que aposta em indústrias tradicionais.
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O fabricante de colheres de pau tem uma frase... ter uma e dar-lhe significado é melhor do que ter muitas e serem "invisíveis"

Acerca de Mongo e dos makers

"Between September 2011 and September 2014 the number of manufacturing jobs in London rose by 15%, the fastest growth rate in Britain.
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The growth ... suggests some of the ways that manufacturing is changing.
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British manufacturers are no longer sending work offshore quite as enthusiastically as they once did. Picky customers demand shorter turnaround times; few small companies can afford to wait four weeks for a ship if they want to restock or tweak their products. And the risk of someone copying or messing up a specialist, high-end design increases the farther the work is sent. Meanwhile manufacturing is “hollowing out”, with ever fewer blue-collar jobs and more highly-skilled workers, observes Nicholas Crafts, a professor at Warwick University. Factories are no longer crammed full of workers, but rely on a few individuals looking after advanced machinery.
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In an increasingly competitive global market, being slightly unusual is also an advantage.[Moi ici: We are all weird and proud of it, cada um com a sua tribo] ... Partly because of its apparent rarity, discerning customers are likely to shell out more cash for something which is marketed as having been made in Britain."

Trecho retirado de "The great incubator"

Blasfémia

A 13 de Dezembro de 2011 numa viagem de comboio descobri a história da Chobani.
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O fundador da Chobani relatava:

"By 2005, I thought maybe I would relax and have a family. But one day I opened a piece of mail. It said, "Fully equipped yogurt factory for sale." I threw it away. But then I thought about it later and went back and got it out of the garbage. I called. It was nearby, in South Edmeston, N.Y., near Utica. Kraft was closing it and getting out of the yogurt business. There were a million reasons not to buy it."

A realidade mostra-nos que a Chobani cresceu e tornou-se um player de relevo no mercado americano. E a Kraft? O que aconteceu à multinacional que resolveu sair do negócio dos iogurtes?

"One of the prime operating philosophies for major companies these days is to expand and do more. But when Sanjay Khosla became president of Kraft Developing Markets, he set out with the opposite in mind: To do less. By focusing on fewer products, he was betting he could build the company’s revenue and profit more effectively than through the mindless expansion he finds common to most corporations.
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His strategy was called 5-10-10. The company had dozens of product categories and more than 150 brands in over 60 countries. He mobilized efforts around five strong categories, 10 power brands, and 10 key markets. The other areas weren’t shut down, but money and other resources were to be focused on 5-10-10.
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It worked. After six years, developing markets revenue more than tripled, to $16-billion from $5-billion, with double-digit organic growth (from within existing operations, rather than through mergers or acquisitions). Profitability increased by 50 per cent. And cash flow improved."

Julgo que é isto que a Procter & Gamble também quer fazer (lembram-se do Verão passado?)
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Saliento a coragem de quem toma decisões deste tipo... gente que comete a blasfémia de não se importar com a concorrência... viver e deixar viver, cada um na sua.
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Trechos retirados de "How Kraft turned less into more"

To everything - turn, turn, turn ...

Tão interessante esta estória "You Can Now Convert Your MP3s to Vinyl Records":

"For the better part of a century, the vinyl record reigned supreme as the most popular format for listening to recorded sounds.
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A testament to their unique charms, vinyl records survived the coming of the 8-track and the cassette tape, before being put out to pasture, more-or-less, by compact discs in the 1990s.
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When it seemed clear that analog formats, of which vinyl is one, would give way to digital, some consumers rushed out to buy CDs. Others scrambled to convert their sometimes massive libraries of vinyl records to mp3s.
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But now vinyl has seemingly risen from the grave.
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With vinyl resurgent, some consumers now want to convert their digital music back into analog format. Enter a new crop of entrepreneurs looking to make a buck by helping consumers retrofit their music collections. For a price, websites like vinyl-pressing.com, edsvinyl.com, and vinylrecorder.com allow consumers to convert their mp3 files into vinyl records."

We are all weird!!!

Porque não somos plankton... (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.
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Num jantar de Natal na sexta-feira passada, defendia, como aqui no blogue, que o futuro é das empresas pequenas, é dos grupos de profissionais que se juntam, é dos independentes. Num mundo cada vez mais rápido, mais diversificado, o tempo de resposta e o foco são fundamentais.
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Um dos presentes, colaborador de uma multinacional, argumentava que as empresas grandes têm dinheiro suficiente para, sempre que vêem algo inovador no mercado, chegarem e comprarem essa marca, essa empresa, essa patente.
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Reconheci logo a estratégia que a P&G adoptou há uns anos, prescindir cada vez mais de uma estrutura de investigação cara e pouco produtiva, acomodada pelo funcionalismo incumbente que se instala e, optar por comprar as patentes e as ideias de sucesso.
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Depois, a conversa enveredou pela necessidade de urgência na resposta, para fazer face aos estímulos e à dança da paisagem competitiva.
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Agora, recordo a metáfora que aqui uso muitas vezes... a da Torre de Babel. O que está a acontecer à P&G?

Anda a vender e a concentrar o negócio (como me disse o mesmo colaborador da multinacional, que há muitos anos foi colaborador industrial da GE em Portugal), como a GE anda a fazer, a vender pragmaticamente os negócios do mass-market, para se concentrar no valor acrescentado.
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Ontem à noite, via Twitter, Esko Kilpi encaminhou-me para:

• "The 21st C organisation will be small, decentralised and flat. The very opposite of the 20th C organisations that still cling on to power."
• "Adam Lent on Beyond Big Business, Big State, and Big Culture"
• "THE FUTURE IS SMALL"
• "Farewell corporate power: How the rise of the blockchain could change everything"

Ainda duvidam que Mongo vem aí? E que os bonzos do modelo do século XX não estão preparados para ele? E que vão contrarevolucionar?

Tão Mongo

Este texto "What Weird Vinyl Orders Are Doing to Old-School Record Production" é todo ele sobre Mongo e as suas tribos. We are all weird!

E a democratização, não tem impacte?

Nesta narrativa "Rise of the Machines: Downfall of the Economy?" faltam pormenores importantes:

• o impacte da democratização da produção;
• o abandono da produção em massa e o triunfo das tribos;
• we are all weird;
• o fim do eficientismo.

Por isso, isto "What Happens to Society When Robots Replace Workers?" passa completamente ao lado, ao concentrar-se na eficiência tão cara ao mercado de massas que deixou de existir, ou de ter futuro. Viva Mongo!!! 

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Sandy vs McGyver em "A paixão por procedimentos (parte II)" merecia mais atenção e reflexão.

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Em "IT was fun while IT lasted" creio que passam ao lado do desafio. Em Mongo, o desafio não é o da eficiência, é o da eficácia!!!

Porque não somos plankton (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III. 
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Acrescentando também "Mongo não é um mundo gigantes-friendly!"
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A grande mudança continua:

• "Buffett powers up $4.7bn Duracell battery deal"
• "Procter & Gamble quer vender unidade de cuidados para cabelo Wella"

Como será visto e explicado este movimento daqui a uns anos?
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Será que alguém viu mais à frente, antes do resto da manada, e começou a agir de acordo com o tal mundo em que "we are all weird" e, em que cada vez menos gente aceita ser tratada como plankton?
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Será que alguém percebeu a incompatibilidade das mega organizações com a necessidade de paixão em Mongo?

"A paixão nas empresas é inversamente proporcional ao seu tamanho" (aqui)

Conjugado com:

"Attracting and retaining people with the passion of the Explorer requires effort. More than any extrinsic rewards, these people need an environment that will help them to grow more rapidly and achieve more of their potential. Companies would do well to ask themselves whether the work environments they provide can help to catalyze, nurture, and amplify their passion. Ambition is no longer enough; our more challenging world demands nothing less than passion." 

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Porque não somos plankton (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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Penso que o trecho que se segue adequa-se bem ao caso da P&G

"The Proliferation Trap. Proliferation occurs when "new price-benefit positions proliferate, surround, and erode a product's value proposition by targeting smaller segments of the customer base," says D'Aveni. "The dilemma for managers caught in the proliferation trip is that they cannot fight everyone, everywhere, all the time."
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If your market is increasingly fragmented, and your value proposition is being undermined by new offerings targeted at ever-narrower market niches, you are likely caught in the proliferation trap.[Moi ici: Este é o futuro que antevejo, à medida que nos formos entranhando em Mongo]
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Solutions: Target select threats and concentrate resources there - a position where there is little resistance, for instance, or one where you have some major advantage over your rivals or a growth segment where competition is lighter. Second, you can try to overwhelm the threat, either by using multiple strategies against multiple fronts or concentrating your resources on one universal strategy that addresses all the threats. Last, you can outflank the threats by using creative proliferation of your own.
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"Find white space on the map or reposition to create new growth segments as old ones are saturated," says D'Aveni.""

Trechos retirados de "Strategies to Win the War on Pricing"