Cuidado com as fantasias do Excel

Há os políticos que escrevem cenários para uma década mas que não duram 6 meses.
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Há os comentadores que sonham com políticos cheios de certezas e cheios de conhecimento privilegiado que indicam o caminho único para o futuro
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Depois, há os que como este anónimo engenheiro da província têm medo dos Grandes Planeadores, os Grandes Geometras, e preferem a humildade do fuçar, a alternativa do concreto, o reconhecimento do anything goes, o MacGyver versus Sandy. Economia não rima com ciência newtoniana, é tudo transitório

Por tudo isto, gostei muito de "When Strategy Becomes Fantasy":

"Ironically, when managers think they have all the answers, strategy can turn into fantasy.
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Many organisations have an obsession with certainty, a must-know attitude to strategic initiatives.
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Companies, therefore, often end up dedicating more energy towards maintaining the illusion of pursuing a strategic aspiration than actually trying to make a strategic aspiration real.
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As a strategic aspiration moves from an idea to the active pursuit of that idea, a feedback loop starts to form. This feedback loop generates data about the feasibility and worthiness of the aspiration. Feedback is also produced about the organisation’s delivery capabilities. People in leadership roles can be receptive to this data or they can manipulate, normalise and post-rationalise the data.
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Inevitably, the inherent uncertainty in a strategic initiative means that true understanding of the underlying business problem is going to emerge as the project progresses.
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But from my observations, the unearthing of this uncertainty threatens fragile ego-identities. The more fragile the egos in positions of power, the more fertile the soil for a shared fantasy to take hold, i.e the more defended and narcissistically oriented the people in leadership roles, the more vulnerable the company is to fantasy usurping a reality based pursuit of a strategic aspiration.[Moi ici: Acabo de me lembrar de Weick e da genial estória do oficial húngaro nos Alpes que salvou os seus colegas porque tinha um mapa ... dos Pirinéus. Outro exemplo do fuçar, do começar pela acção.]

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A shared fantasy’s best ally is the belief that no one has time to think. [Moi ici: Estão a ver onde isto nos leva? Indicadores para quê? Reunir para quê?] It is almost a dead giveaway that a group is entrapped in a shared fantasy if they are running from meeting to meeting, fire fighting, exhausted and mentally unavailable.
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Reflection brings awareness to one’s situation, which for some companies can be very painful. As Ronald Heiftz says, “There is no such thing as a broken system. The system is working for someone.” Bringing greater awareness into an organisation participating in a shared fantasy means going against the system that is “working for someone.”
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Without maintaining time for reflection, I believe the strategy realisation process will likely succumb to the grips of fantasy and ultimately fail. Worse, the path to failure will likely be one of significant suffering."

O artigo é muito mais rico e extenso e merece uma ou duas leituras integrais, para começar.

Cuidado com as boas-práticas!

"Best practices are techniques that supposedly are proved to be widely successful, but in reality, they’re easy to copy-and-paste and can be disguised as one-size-fits-all solutions.
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Few management approaches are universally applicable, and attempts to implement a mismatched approach can do more harm than good. 
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Every best practice is a paradox by its nature and makes itself obsolete.
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While it works for some to start with understanding the why (principles) before the how (practices), other times it’s better to start with the how before the why. In other words, it’s not necessarily wrong to implement the practice first and understand the principles after. Oftentimes people and organizations learn best by doing first and understanding what works and what didn’t later, perhaps through a postmortem or a retrospective."

Recordar "Dedicado aos que seguem a Religião do Grande Geómetra" ou "Não existem boas-práticas!!!"

Trechos retirados de "Best Practices Are Killing Your Company"

Acerca da evolução da competição (parte II)

Quando em "Acerca da evolução da competição" escrevi:

"Em próximo postal voltarei a Favaro e à minha reflexão pessoal sobre a evolução da estratégia."

Ainda não tinha lido "Terroir" de Seth Godin:

"Heinz ketchup has no terroir. It always tastes like everywhere and nowhere and the same. A Dijon mustard from a small producer in France, though, you can taste where it came from. Foodies seek out this distinction in handcrafted chocolate or wine or just about anything where the land and environment are thought to matter.
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But we can extend the idea to you, to your work, to the thing you're building.
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It's not like anyplace else. It's not like everyplace else.
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Consistent doesn't mean, "like everybody else."[Moi ici: Cá está o ponto que eu critico na Qualidade, a demasiada concentração na normalização]  Consistent in this case means, "like yourself." If we took just one drop of your work and your reputation and the trail you leave behind, could we reconstruct the rest of it?
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The pressure on each of us to fit in, to industrialize, to be more like Heinz--it's huge. But to do so is to lose the essence of what we make."

Terroir é uma palavra que o meu pai me ensinou acerca dos vinhos e da sua diferenciação... é uma palavra que vai ficar a fazer parte do léxico deste blogue e do meu trabalho. O que eu pensava acerca das palavras de Favaro, reforçado com o texto de Godin é o que relato aqui "O meio pode albergar posições intermédias viáveis".

Acerca da evolução da competição

Em "A Brief History of the Ways Companies Compete" Favaro faz um breve resumo da evolução dos grandes vectores de competição desde a Revolução Industrial:

"Since the late nineteenth century, we have seen five distinct movements in the way companies compete. The first was efficiency. This was the original purpose of forming corporations — to facilitate the production of products and services with the least amount of wasted time, materials, and labor. The attempt to turn business into a science of efficiency, also known as “Taylorism,” marked the high point of this movement. Many companies still compete this way and there continue to be successors to Taylorism, including business process reengineering and lean production.[Moi ici: Por favor, não me acusem de denegrir o "lean production", o "lean production" pode ser bom ou mau, como a caneta, mais aqui]
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The second movement was scale, a close cousin of efficiency. This is where companies exploit economies of scale that yield lower unit costs and enable sharper pricing of their goods and services.
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Scale and efficiency are mostly about competing by lowering costs. In the early 1980s, a new way of competing broke on to the world stage: the quality movement, with the deification of W. Edwards Deming, who introduced quality as a way of life for Japanese companies.
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Today quality, efficiency, and scale stand side-by-side as ways of competing. For every Wal-Mart and Ford that competes mostly on price, there’s a Nordstrom and BMW that competes mostly on quality. [Moi ici: Não posso concordar com Favaro. Favaro confunde qualidade como "ausência de defeitos" com qualidade como "algo com mais atributos". Não se pode dizer que a Nordstrom tem mais qualidade que a Wal-Mart se o conceito for a ausência de defeitos, assim como se pode dizer que o BMW tem mais qualidade que o Fiat se estivermos a falar na quantidade de atributos. Assim, a qualidade à la Deming, incluiria como mais uma ferramenta de redução de custos. Aliás, essa é a grande crítica que faço ao movimento da Qualidade, o ter cristalizado há muito no chão da fábrica, o ter ficado seduzida pela variabilidade, quando, o que conta cada vez mais é a variedade, daí o fim da marca Redsigma.]
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But after the rise of Japan proved not to be a miracle after all, and with the rise of the internet, a new, fourth movement was born in the 1990s: the network way of competing. Instead of winning customers based on cost or quality (or both), companies began to compete based on how many people (or businesses) use them. [Moi ici: Aquilo que Kaplan me ensinou a designar por estratégias lock-in]
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Today, the network movement has given way to a fifth: the so-called ecosystem way of competing. This an approach of co-opting third parties to build on and leverage your products and services such that they have more total utility to your customers. Your advantage comes not so much from the number of customers you have as from the number of partners you have working with or on top of your products and services."

Depois, Favaro termina a olhar para o futuro:

"All the above begs a question: Will we see any new ways of competing become a sixth movement in the corporate world? [Moi ici: E dá algumas ideias: Agility, disruption, data analytics, integration]
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Whether any of these become a full-blown movement or not, it’s clear that there’s a much bigger menu of ways to compete today compared to a century ago. That’s a good indication of how complex competing in the business world has become."

Este final fez-me logo pensar no paralelismo entre biologia e economia e, daí, chegar a "Mais estratégias, mais valor acrescentado, mais nichos, mais diversidade" e aos seus gráficos. E daí chegar a "Rethinking extinction":

"The fossil record shows that biodiversity in the world has been increasing dramatically for 200 million years and is likely to continue."

Como não pensar em Feyrabend, quando se trata da sobrevivência, aprendemos com MacGyver, "anything goes":

"‘Genes are jumping around. Molecular genetics is finding that hybridisation between species is more common than previously suspected. Darwin talked about a tree of life, with species branching out and separating. But we are discovering it is more of a network, with genes moving between close branches as related species interbreed. This hybridisation quickly opens up evolutionary  opportunities.
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Move, adapt or die. When organisms challenged by climate change respond by adapting, they evolve. When they move, they often encounter distant cousins and hybridise with them, sometimes evolving new species.
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Throughout 3.8 billion years of evolution on Earth, the inexorable trend has been toward an ever greater variety of species. With the past two mass extinction events there were soon many more species alive after each catastrophe than there were before it."

Em próximo postal voltarei a Favaro e à minha reflexão pessoal sobre a evolução da estratégia.

Uma das minhas narrativas preferidas

"A strong version of the canonical big data thesis is that when you have enough information, you can make unbiased predictions that don’t require an underlying understanding of the process or context – the data are sufficient to speak for themselves.  This is the so-called “end of theory.”
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Not so fast, Harford responds.  The failure of Google Flu Trends, in his view, emphasizes the perils of unmoored empiricism.
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“A theory-free analysis of mere correlations is inevitably fragile,” Harford writes.  “If you have no idea what is behind a correlation, you have no idea what might cause that correlation to break down.”
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He’s right, of course – but I suspect that outside of a few areas such as physics, our understanding of causation is far more fragile than we appreciate.  We overestimate our understanding of causation, and our ability to generalize..
I’d argue this is especially true in medicine, where despite our aspirations to approach health and disease from first principles, our actual understanding is far more limited, and based far more on rationalized empiricism than is often appreciated – there’s much more scientism than science.
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Fundamentally, my concern is that more often than we appreciate, and especially in healthcare, our faith on theory is misplaced – we turn to various theories as crutches, explanatory models, memory devices, in the case of med students and harried residents.
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The difference is that we recognize (or should recognize) empirical predictions for what they are, limitations and all.  Yet, I suspect we are more likely to let our guard down in instances where predictions are theory-driven, where we instinctively believe we really understand what is going on.  In doing so, we are likely to discount data that don’t fit, and unconsciously constrain our thinking according to theory’s dictates."

Sobretudo porque no mundo das chamadas ciências sociais, o que é verdade hoje pode passar a ser mentira amanhã e vice-versa, só pela actuação do observado e do observador.
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Algo que devia incutir muito mais humildade em quem pretende construir sociedades de homens novos e substituir-se a centenas de gerações de tentativa-e-erro.
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Feyrabend rules!!!
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Trechos retirados de "Why Causation Is (Often) Not Causation - The Retro Humility Of Empiricism"

Dedicado aos que seguem a Religião do Grande Geómetra

Relativamente aos que acreditam no Grande Geómetra, na Grande Estratégia que um Governo Todo-Poderoso e Sabedor de Tudo deve desenhar e proclamar, para que nós, ignorantes, possamos seguir ordeiramente tão sábias instruções:
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"'History generally, and the history of revolution in particular, is always richer in content, more varied, more many-sided, more lively and subtle than even' the best historian and the best methodologist can imagine. History is full of 'accidents and conjunctures and curious juxtapositions of events' and it demonstrates to us the 'complexity of human change and the unpredictable character of the ultimate consequences of any given act or decision of men'. Are we really to believe that the naive and simple-minded rules which methodologists take as their guide are capable of accounting for such a 'maze of interactions'? And is it not clear that successful participation in a process of this kind is possible only for a ruthless opportunist who is not tied to any particular philosophy and who adopts whatever procedure seems to fit the occasion?"
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Que mil girassóis floresçam!
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Trecho retirado de "Against Method" de Paul Feyrabend.

Dedicado aos encalhados da tríade

"Already in 1933, in his inaugural lecture at the College de France, Lucien Febvre had ridiculed writers who, 'sitting at their desks, behind mountains of paper, having closed and covered their windows', made profound judgements about the life of landholders, peasants and farmhands.
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All I say is that non-experts often know more than experts and should therefore be consulted and that prophets of truth (including those who use arguments) more often than not are carried along by a vision that clashes with the very events the vision is supposed to be exploring."

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Trechos retirados de "Against Method" de Paul Feyrabend.