Acerca das notícias

Ontem no Jornal de Negócios, no editorial de Helena Garrido, "Os "econs", as notícias e os humanos", pode ler-se:

"há neste momento uma enorme variedade de estudos que apontam para efeitos de sobrevalorização da informação com características negativas nos processos de decisão."

Recordei logo:

"Pessimistic prophecies are self-fulfilling." 

No final remata:

"Os cidadãos anónimos que apelam a menos más notícias, tal como o Presidente, dizem-nos o que devíamos de facto fazer, evitar as más notícias. Mas as boas notícias têm de ser alimentadas por todo um ambiente e uma realidade favorável para que os "humanos" acreditem nelas." 

Não sou adepto de se evitarem as más notícias, é preciso receber essa informação, se não a recebermos ficamos com uma imagem torcida da realidade. E nasce-me uma dúvida, o que é uma má notícia?
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Na década em que andamos a assar sardinhas com o lume dos fósforos (empréstimos), isso foi visto como uma má notícia?
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Durante a segunda vinda do FMI quantas "más notícias", na opinião dos média da altura, fazem hoje parte de uma narrativa positiva sobre a capacidade que o país teve de dar a volta?
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Não concordo que se escondam as más notícias, tenho é dúvidas sobre o que é uma má notícia. E, se calhar, por tabela, sobre o que é considerado uma boa notícia. O que é preciso não é esconder as más notícias mas dar tempo de antena igual ou superior às boas notícias.
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Por exemplo, o Jornal de Negócios podia, em vez de remeter para a última página de ontem, no canto inferior direito, esta notícia "Número de insolvências diminui e constituições de empresas aumentam", podia ter-lhe dado mais destaque e colocado numa outra página.
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Apesar do clima de pessimismo, há gente anónima que, por esperança, por desesperança, porque não sabe fazer mais nada, porque quer, arrisca constituir uma empresa neste contexto de sociedade socialista, com um Estado pedo-mafioso que tudo quer sugar. Uns verdadeiros heróis anónimos, uns verdadeiros "lamed waf"
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Boas notícias não são conversas de encantar, são exemplos factuais, são o exemplo dos pares, não PR dos ministérios ou dos bancos.

Acerca do "Big Data"

Nestes tempos em que se fala cada vez mais de "Big Data"

"Uncertainty is caused by not having the information we need. Therefore, adding more information will reduce uncertainty. That certainly seems simple enough.
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Claim 4: We can reduce uncertainty by gathering more information.
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The people in our sample agreed with this statement. Their average rating was 5.57. Of the 164 people who responded to this statement, eight indicated some degree of disagreement.
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Disclaimer
There are different types of uncertainty. Sometimes we are uncertain because we don’t have the information we need. That’s the type of uncertainty that claim 4 covers. Sometimes we have the information but we don’t know if we can trust it. Sometimes we trust it but it conflicts with other information we also believe. And sometimes we believe it but we can’t figure out what it means.1 Claim 4 covers only the first type of uncertainty, which stems from missing information.
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When we are faced with the other types of uncertainty, adding more information may not help at all. If I’m going to doubt the accuracy of any information I receive, adding more information just gives me more to doubt. If I believe in a data point but it conflicts with others, then adding more data may add to the conflicts instead of resolving them. And if the situation is too complex to sort out, adding more data may increase the complexity, not decrease it.
A useful way to think about uncertainty is to distinguish between puzzles and mysteries.3 A puzzle is easily solved with the addition of a critical data point. For example, as I write this (in 2008) we don’t know exactly where Osama bin Laden is hiding. That is knowable. He is somewhere. We just don’t know where he is, or even if he is alive. But if an informer were to provide bin Laden’s current location, the puzzle would be solved.
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A mystery isn’t solved by critical data. It requires more analysis, not more data. If we want to know what the future will bring to Iraq, no data point will give us the answer. No amount of data will eliminate our uncertainties about whether China is a potential business partner of the United States or an inevitable military, political, and commercial threat.
Claim 4 aims to solve puzzles, not mysteries. Mysteries emerge from ambiguous and complex situations. Even if we have the data we need, and know what data points to trust, and they aren’t inconsistent with each other, we still aren’t sure how to explain past events or anticipate future ones. Mysteries require sensemaking. Adding more data doesn’t necessarily improve success in resolving mysteries.
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Too much information can make things worse. As we add more and more information, the value of each successive data point gets smaller and smaller while the strain of sorting out all the information keeps increasing. Eventually, we may reach a point where the additional information gets in our way. We would do better to stop gathering more information before this point, but most of us keep seeking more data. We can’t stop ourselves. We have become data junkies.
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If we adopt claim 4 as our creed, we will know just what to do when we feel uncertain.
We will gather more data. The more the uncertainty, the more strenuous the data gathering. We won’t stop until our uncertainty disappears or we become exhausted, whichever comes first."

Trechos retirados de "Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making" de Gary Klein.

Curiosidade do dia

"Peachy Printer - The world's first $100 3D Printer"

Qualquer dia vêm dentro das embalagens como brinde

Miúdos a aprenderem a mexer com estas coisas logo em casa aos primeiros anos ... Mongo garantido

Como poderemos fazer "batota"?

A propósito de "Multinacionais deixam cair as fábricas e passam a concentrar-se no marketing", eu, PME ou não-multinacional, começaria a pensar, como posso usar a propriedade da minha unidade produtiva para fazer coisas que eles, multinacionais, terão mais dificuldade em nos acompanhar?
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Como poderei fazer "batota"?
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Eu sei que mais importante que a posse dos recursos é o acesso aos recursos mas... e se fizer batota? E se descobrir forma de mudar as regras do jogo?

O truque

Via Twitter, já não sei como, ontem cheguei a este artigo "From milkshakes to wine: the jobs that wine is hired for".
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Parece-me um bom exemplo, para concretizar a ideia de clientes-alvo.
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O truque não é concentrarmos-nos no produto (por isso é que não gostei das cinco primeiras regras aqui, demasiado enfoque no produto), não é concentramos-nos na demografia, ou no sector, ou ...
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O truque é tentar entrar na mente dos clientes e, recordando esta máxima, "Serving Experience As The Product", procurar identificar o job-to-be-done onde podemos fazer a diferença na mente dos clientes.
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Recordando "Tudo é Serviço" (aqui e aqui):

"A fundamental characteristic of services is that they create value only when we use them.
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Product-oriented organizations often fail to see the potential of using their customers to make a service more effective.
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The biggest missed opportunity in development is that organizations don’t think about their customers as valuable, productive assets in the delivery of a service, but as anonymous consumers of products."

Trecho retirado de "Service Design" de Andrew Polaine, Lavrans Løvlie, and Ben Reason

O segundo grande desafio de um BSC, uma narrativa onde tudo isto se interliga?

Enquanto uns violam a primeira regra (better before cheaper), outros, propõem-se a ajudar a seguir o caminho menos percorrido "If You Want to Raise Prices, Tell a Better Story":

"In a world of abundance, what your product does for your customers is important, but not nearly as important as what your product means to them. And this second part — the story of your product — is what yields the greatest pricing power of all."

Leiam a história sobre como aumentar o preço em 2700%, sim, leram bem, 2700%.

"as the number of products and brands in the world proliferate at an ever-accelerating pace, the power is only increasing. In 1997, there were 2.5 million brands in the world. Today? The number is approaching 10 million. So the trend is toward rapid commoditization of just about everything. In a world of almost overwhelming abundance, an authentic, meaning-rich story becomes the most important ingredient to drive a company’s margins up."

A primeira etapa do desafio de construir um BSC passa por identificar os clientes-alvo.
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Uma vez identificados os clientes-alvo, façamos uma viagem ao futuro desejado... como é que a empresa está a funcionar nesse futuro desejado?

• Para quem trabalham?
• Como são conhecidos?
• Em que são bons?
• Por que ambos ganham?
• Conseguem construir uma narrativa onde tudo isto se interliga? Como funciona o ecossistema da procura? Por que é que os influenciadores e prescritores dançarão a mesma música?

Mas atenção a este aviso "Don't Spin a Better Story. Be a Better Company"

A primeira regra, a ser violada

Sabem como sou um promotor do esforço das empresas, para conseguirem aumentar os seus preços, através de uma melhoria da proposta de valor dirigida aos seus clientes-alvo.
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BTW, quase o oposto do aqui relatado "Peugeot compromete-se a aumentar produção e evita fechos de fábricas em França até 2016":

"A empresa diz estar preparada para aumentar a produção em 7,5% para um milhão de veículos por ano,
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Na Europa a queda dos registos de novos carros foi de 13% nos primeiros oito meses deste ano,"

Tentar aumentar as vendas através da redução dos custos/preços?!
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Recordando "The Three Rules" a primeira regra propõe: Better before cheaper...

Vending machines

"There was a time when a commodity was defined as something that is standardised, fungible, provided without differentiation. And companies moved heaven and earth to try and find a way to differentiate.
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There’s a new definition of commodity emerging: a product or service where there is no relationship between customer and company. Companies in that position will go the way of all flesh."

Basta pensar nos bancos, a tornarem-se "vending machines"
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Trecho retirado de "Thinking about change and choice and consequence"

"Dig a Hole to Fill a Hole"

Raynor e Mumtaz em "The Three Rules" para titular um texto sobre a evolução da Maytag escolheram:

"Dig a Hole to Fill a Hole"

Faz-me lembrar o mais défice, para reduzir o défice.
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É impressionante como empresas grandes, cometem erros crassos tão facilmente.

A guerra das moedas

Li este artigo "US manufacturers ‘reshoring’ from China" logo depois deste "Gold going to $7,000 in currency reset says author Jim Rickards" e, fiquei a pensar na guerra das moedas... ver países "avançados" a armarem-se em Portugal pré-Cadilhe.
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Pela Europa há quem pense o mesmo "Um euro mais fraco para uma Europa mais fraca". Entretanto, "Contas externas: (bastante) boas notícias em Julho...".

Para reflexão

"Price is the third profit driver. Price has a more pronounced leverage in profit than does volume (assuming marginal costs greater than zero), because a price increase directly affects profits, whereas an increase in volume raises profits only by the additional revenue minus marginal costs.
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Figure ...

shows how dramatically a price increase of only 1% (with constant volume) would improve the profit situation of selected retailers."

Trecho retirado de "Retail Pricing – Higher Profits Through Improved Pricing Processes" de Hermann Simon, Andreas von der Gathen, e Philip W. Daus.

Clientes-alvo, para reflexão

"If you reserve your best effort for the irritable boss, the never-pleased client and the bully of a customer, then you've bought into a system that rewards the very people who are driving you nuts. It's no wonder you have clients like that--they get your best work.
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On the other hand, when you make it clear (and then deliver) on the promise that your best work goes to those that are clear, respectful and patient, you become a specialist in having customers just like that.
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One of the largest turning points of my career was firing the client who accounted for a third of my company's work. We were becoming really good at tolerating the stress that came from this engagement, and it became clear to me that we were about to sign up for a lifetime of clients like that.
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Set free to work for those that we believed deserved our best work, we replaced the lost business in less than six months.
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[The other alternative is a fine one, if you're up for it... specialize in the worst possible clients and bosses, the least gratifying assignments. You'll stand out in an uncrowded field! The mistake is thinking you're doing one and actually doing neither by doing both.]"

Quem são os clientes-alvo da sua empresa?
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Trechos retirados de "Unreasonable clients"

Curiosidade do dia

9 anos!
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Este espaço comemora hoje o seu 9º aniversário.

Então, isto é uma utopia

Trecho entre 4:58 e 6:05
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Depois do minuto 6:05 o racional de Judite de Sousa é de ir às lágrimas

O conselho!

Mais um excelente trecho retirado de "The Three Rules":

"The prevalence of revenue-driven profitability among exceptional companies is perhaps most significant for what it says about how best to use ROA as a guide to strategie action.
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As we explored briefly in chapter 1, since ROA is a ratio, there is no mathematieal difference when ROA is inereased by adjusting any of its constituent elements. Raise price or volume, reduce costs or assets ... the arithmetic cannot tell the difference. (Moi ici: Advinhem qual a interpretação dos teóricos da tríade, desconhecedores da relações amorosas e crentes monoteístas no Excel)
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But in practice there seems to he a very real difference. Miracle Workers are not wastrels, but they do not rely ou cost leadership to drive their performance. Both in our population of exceptional companies and in our sample, Miracle Worker status is a consequence of gross margin advantage driven hy higher price or volume—and as often as not enabled by higher costs and frequently assets. ln other words, exceptional profitability demands, beyond a point, making trade-offs, accepting higher costs as the price of being truly exceptional. Driving profitability from merely good to truly great by reducing either costs or assets is not something we see, as an entirely empirical matter, to be the most likely route to Miracle Worker performance."

Um conselho sempre presente neste blogue.
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Li este trecho a caminhar para casa, depois de deixar o carro na revisão e, pensei nas "guerras" que às vezes é preciso ter nas empresas, para conseguir passar esta mensagem... a competição pelo custo está tão entranhada... e eu não tenho o tempo de antena da tríade, sempre a martelarem a mensagem da competição pelo custo... e como sublinhei há dias, com base em Gary Klein, uma mentira muitas vezes repetida passa a ser a verdade oficial, mesmo perante evidências que sustentam o contrário... é um combate desigual.

Acerca do optimismo (parte II)

Parte I.
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Não há acasos, todas as consequências são significativas. No dia em que descubro o Seligman da parte I, encontro estes dois textos sobre o optimismo e o pessimismo:

• What George Eliot Teaches Us about the Life-Cycle of Happiness and the Science of Why We’re Happier When We’re Older
• The Science of Our Optimism Bias and the Life-Cycle of Happiness

Do segundo retiro:

"The problem with pessimistic expectations, such as those of the clinically depressed, is that they have the power to alter the future; negative expectations shape outcomes in a negative way. Not everyone agrees with this assertion. Some people believe the secret to happiness is low expectations. If we don’t expect greatness or find love or maintain health or achieve success, we will never be disappointed. If we are never disappointed when things don’t work out and are pleasantly surprised when things go well, we will be happy. It’s a good theory — but it’s wrong.
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Although the belief in a better future is often an illusion, optimism has clear benefits in the present. Hope keeps our minds at ease, lowers stress, and improves physical health. This is probably the most surprising benefit of optimism. All else being equal, optimists are healthier and live longer. It is not just that healthy people are more optimistic, but optimism can enhance health. Expecting our future to be good reduces stress and anxiety, which is good for our health.
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Yes, optimism is on one level irrational and can also lead to unwanted outcomes. But the bias also protects and inspires us: It keeps us moving forward, rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge. To make progress, we need to be able to imagine alternative realities, and not just any old reality but a better one; and we need to believe that we can achieve it. Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals."

E volto a Seligman:

"Pessimistic prophecies are self-fulfilling."

E a uma luz de esperança para Constança:

"Habits of thinking need not be forever. One of the most significant findings in psychology in the last twenty years is that individuals can choose the way they think." 

Não é gritar mais alto

"The Goliaths typically play in the rational space; this is the arena that appeals to the part of the brain looking for a good deal.  The core campaign message is very specific and clear, and it’s usually about value. The problem is, when several competitors share the same rational message about value, the Goliath with the loudest voice (i.e., the highest media spend) wins.
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For your brand to break through, you need to appeal on two more nuanced dimensions: cultural and emotional.  You need to create and share a point of view that your prospects find enlightened and unique. And to express that point of view is to speak your mind freely — as a brand — not about what you have on sale, but about something bold that will stir a customer’s interest.
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making your brand hyper-obsessed about a specific niche or topic. When you tap into something that your audience can relate to, you’re tapping into something cultural."

Trechos retirados de "How Your Brand Can Beat Goliath"

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito deste título "Microsoft lança tablets Surface mais rápidos para desafiar Apple", apetece-me perguntar, será que se consegue desafiar a Apple despejando atributos para um tablet?
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Há um mercado "underserved" à espera de um tablet com desempenho superior?
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Talvez! E qual será a sua dimensão? Não sei!
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Contudo, sinto que há aqui material para uma reflexão... e qual é a "user-experience"? E quais são os trade-offs de usar este tablet?
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Será para o segmento "corporate" que compra, ou comprará tablets por atacado, para os funcionários?

À atenção dos jogadores de bilhar amadores

"“Dado quase toda a dívida pública estar hoje nos bancos nacionais, quem tiver depósitos bancários é alvo dos seus próprios impropérios. Se a dívida fosse repudiada, como aconselham, a perda cairia em sua casa”.
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João César das Neves afirma ainda que “espanta que tantos ignorem olimpicamente a situação, apenas protestando, sem sugerir alternativas razoáveis de cura”. “É verdade que na confusão se cometem muitos erros. Apesar disso, as autoridades tentam resolver o problema nacional; os vociferadores nada contribuem de construtivo e ignoram o sofrimento muito superior que adviria da ausência de medidas duras"."

Trecho retirado de "João César das Neves: “Se a dívida fosse repudiada a perda cairia em sua casa”"

Acerca do optimismo

"Life isn't fair
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Yes, life isn't fair, which is why you MUST be optimistic.
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Pessimists pretend that life should be fair and then get upset when it isn't. When the unfairness of life smacks pessimists down, they tend to stay down.
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Optimists know life is unfair but still try to make things better. When the unfairness of life knocks them down, optimists get back up on their feet and try again.
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Think of it this way: you've been dealt whatever cards you've been dealt.  You have two choices: 1) complain that other people got better cards than you or 2) concentrate on playing the cards you got as well as you possibly can.
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Optimism is the only "cure" for the unfairness of life."

Interessante encontrar este trecho em "Life Isn't Fair-- So Be Optimistic" depois de ter descoberto "Learned optimism" de Martin E. P. Seligman.

"The optimists and the pessimists: I have been studying them for the past twenty-five years. The defining characteristic of pessimists is that they tend to believe bad events will last a long time, will undermine everything they do, and are their own fault. The optimists, who are confronted with the same hard knocks of this world, think about misfortune in the opposite way. They tend to believe defeat is just a temporary setback, that its causes are confined to this one case. The optimists believe defeat is not their fault: Circumstances, bad luck, or other people brought it about. Such people are unfazed by defeat. Confronted by a bad situation, they perceive it as a challenge and try harder. These two habits of thinking about causes have consequences. Literally hundreds of studies show that pessimists give up more easily and get depressed more often.
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A pessimistic attitude may seem so deeply rooted as to be permanent. I have found, however, that pessimism is escapable. Pessimists can in fact learn to be optimists,"