Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos?

"Assuming the pandemic lifts and lockdowns end, the medium-term threat to long and complex supply chains comes from two sets of decisions. One is by companies concluding they have overexposed themselves to shocks. The other is governments trying to force businesses to diversify supply internationally or to bring their production home.
.
On the first, it is unclear whether shortening or diversifying supply chains would have helped companies avoid a global shock such as Covid-19. [Moi ici: Fico admirado com esta argumentação. O que se passou, passou-se. As decisões do futuro serão acerca do contexto do futuro. Daqui - "it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence" - que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para gerir os próximos dois anos? Que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para as tentativas, erros e reposições mais frequentes?] There is a strong view among some academics and management theorists that it would. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote in the FT:
“The quest to find the most cost-effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains . . . the disadvantages of a system that requires all of its elements to work like clockwork have now been exposed.”
...
Meanwhile, the costs of changing supplier — and sourcing from more than one provider to spread the risk — is prohibitively expensive for an industry as complex as carmaking. “You need to spend a great deal of management time and effort and expertise on actually making sure the supplier you have chosen has processes that are capable, reliable and repeatable,” Mr Neill says.
...
The combination of labour cost arbitrage and clusters of specialisms push companies towards constructing a disaggregated international value chain.
...
Second, China has actively encouraged its companies to create supply chains with state help through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a strong motivation to service the European market. There will always be some life in global supply chains as long as the vast resources of the Chinese state are busy building infrastructure and establishing trading links across the world."

Trechos retirados de "Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?"

"Interrogate what is likely to change"

"Vision is especially urgent during a crisis as global and systematic as this one. Inflections that you might have had five years to anticipate in a normal environment might unfold in a matter of weeks or months. [Moi ici: Ainda e sempre - "El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha...”] Trend lines, such as those towards telecommuting, telemedicine, online shopping, and digital media consumption, are suddenly much steeper. Global supply chains are broken.
...
Many of your B2B customers may be shut down; millions of consumers are out of work. Some of the fundamental assumptions underlying your current business model may have been (or may soon be) upended.[Moi ici: Basta pensar nos clientes e consumidores ]

 [Moi ici: Basta pensar na economia como uma sopa de relações de todos os tipos em constante movimento e que alguém tenta congelar]

.
In short, the business environment that you land in when the pandemic comes to an end — which could be one to two years from now — may be very different from what it was before the crisis began.
...
Of course, nobody has a crystal ball ... But while you can’t predict what’s coming with perfect certainty, you can develop much more clarity than you might imagine about what you could and should become, create a plan to live into it, and then set it into motion.
...
Spend time envisioning your future.[Moi ici: E volto a "for at least the next couple months every organisation in the world is a startup"]
...´
Given the urgent demands of the present, some leaders may be tempted to delegate the responsibility for this kind of thinking to others, but it is critical that the CEO, CFO, CSO, and other key line leaders — the people who sign off on major resource allocation decisions — do this work themselves.
.
Interrogate what is likely to change about your customers, markets, and operating environment, and what isn’t. Focus on what your customers will require, how you’ll meet their new and evolving demands, the resonance of your products and services, and your overall capabilities.
.
Ask how resilient your core businesses will be in the light of these changes. Consider both threats and opportunities, and pinpoint elements of your portfolio that may no longer make sense and that will need to be sold off or shut down, as well as opportunities to accelerate new growth offerings."

Trechos retirados de "Leaders, Do You Have a Clear Vision for the Post-Crisis Future?"

E depois do confinamento: quem vai ficar bem?

Um artigo interessante no FT de hoje, "German shops reopen but celebrations in Berlin muted".

Claro que a cultura alemã é diferente da portuguesa, mas muitas empresas exportam para a Alemanha. Claro que a cultura alemã é diferente da portuguesa, mas não faz mal nenhum perceber o que se passa por lá, para prevenir o que se possa passar por cá. Não esquecer que uns ficam de calças na mão a perguntar: O que se passou?. Outros, olham ao longe e perguntam: O que é que pode vir aí?

"In Mitte, one of the German capital’s trendiest neighbourhoods, where thrift shops jostle for space with tech start-ups and glitzy boutiques, the streets were eerily empty. Most stores were still shut, and those that were open were largely devoid of customers.
.
“Our sales will collapse,” said Chantal Frohnhoefer, manager of Macchina Caffe, a small shop selling espresso machines. “No one really wants to go shopping right now. They’re still too scared they’ll get infected.” [Moi ici: Esta manhã, na minha caminhada, li mais um capítulo de "Surviving the Survival" de Laurence Gonzales, e sublinhei: “In general, states with stronger motivational significance tend to dominate. Animals that are being hunted by a predator don’t have the luxury of eating and having sex. Postponing these activities is coping as well.”]
...
“We are entering a long, lean period which could end up being even worse than the shutdown,” he said. “At least when shops were shut they were entitled to government aid. Now they’re on their own.”[Moi ici: O motor do desemprego]
...
“Consumers will be very cautious — they’ve seen a big loss of income, and they will want to save,” said Clemens Fuest, head of the Ifo Institute in Munich, a think-tank. “Shops will try to attract customers with discounts and special offers, but they’ll struggle to reach the sales volume they had before the crisis began.”
.
For cosmopolitan cities such as Berlin, [Moi ici: Ou Porto, ou Lisboa] the sudden halt to international travel is also having a big impact. “Normally this street is full of tourists — they’re the reason why Mitte is so lively,” said Ms Frohnhoefer.
...
Many customers were suffering from “existential fear”, she said. “They’re on furlough or even unemployed, so money is short.” And, in any case, no one is in the mood for “emotional purchases”, added Ms Steinbrenner. “There’s little point in buying new clothes if you’ve got nowhere to go to show them off.”
.
Though shops have reopened their doors, restaurants, cafés and bars remain closed. “The whole shopping experience has changed because you can’t buy stuff and go for a bite to eat afterwards,” said Mr Fuest. “That means people don’t go shopping just for the joy of it.”
...
“The air is going to be thin for a long time.”"

O que vale é que por cá não haverá austeridade! 🤥🤥🤥

Acerca do novo normal

Alguns temas a ter em consideração no novo normal:

"1. Companies that traffic in digital services and e-commerce will make immediate and lasting gains
...
2. Remote work will become the default...
Remote work technology will improve, enabling the sort of mingling previously thought to require in-person meetings. This will cause a severe downturn for commercial real estate as companies drastically cut the size of their workspaces.
Coupled with stricter travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines for foreigners entering certain countries, this will also put severe strain on industries reliant on business travel. It will also lead to an exodus of white-collar workers from big cities [Moi ici: Tenho algumas dúvidas. Mongo apela à criatividade e isso requer proximidade, cumplicidade, partilha, discussão que poderão não ser tão eficazes quanto o estar na mesma sala, na mesma esplanada, no mesmo espaço] — once companies’ remote work routines have been smoothed out, their newly remote-capable employees will have the flexibility to move out of dense cities and into lower-cost areas.
.
3. Many jobs will be automated, and the rest will be made remote-capableTo survive the crisis, firms will need to lay off their least-productive workers, automate what can be automated, and make the rest remote-capable.
...
In short, jobs will first move from in-person to remote-domestic, and in time they will go from remote-domestic to remote-overseas. [Moi ici: Mais dúvidas acerca disto. Mongo é interacção, é customização, Mongo é arte, Mongo não é vómito, Mongo não é race to the bottom. Outra vez a doença anglo-saxónica]
...
4. Telemedicine will become the new normal, signaling an explosion in med-tech innovationIn a matter of weeks, regulatory barriers to telemedicine in the U.S. have largely fallen. ... Though these measures were announced as temporary, those who have now had firsthand experience with the convenience and cost-effectiveness of telemedicine will not want to forgo it. Once the crisis recedes, health care will begin to be provided remotely by default, not necessity, allowing the best doctors to scale their services to far more patients. [Moi ici: Por cá duvido. A corporação é muito forte... só talvez a necessidade do SNS poupar dinheiro pressione este desenvolvimento]
...
5. The nationwide student debt crisis will finally abate as higher education begins to move online...
Universities will also face pressure to cut costs from the severely cash-strapped state governments that fund them. Many will eventually adopt hybrid models that limit face-to-face learning to project-based assignments and student working groups. These will dramatically cut costs, while allowing the best instructors to scale their insights to more students. They might also make a compelling case for broadening access to elite universities, whose small cohorts have historically been justified on the basis of physical constraints inherent to classrooms and campuses.
.
6. Goods and people will move less often and less freely across national and regional borders...
Even before the pandemic struck, higher wages in China, international trade wars, and the rise of semi-autonomous factories had already prompted firms to reshore manufacturing, bringing it closer to domestic research and development centers. The coronavirus crisis will accelerate this trend: Increasingly, corporations will favor the resiliency of centralized domestic supply chains over the efficiency of globalized ones. Lacking support to protect the shared gains of worldwide economic integration and globalized supply chains, the multilateral institutions of global governance established in the 20th century will, if temporarily, begin to fray."

Trechos retirados de "7 Predictions for a Post-Coronavirus World"

"“People in the past dined out with their colleagues in their lunch hour, now they’re all getting lunchboxes,” he says, sitting in a booth at an empty Sichuan restaurant he operates. “They’re more likely to cook at home than go out.”
...
Xiong’s experience provides a window into the uncertain future facing small-business owners around the globe as they contemplate life after lockdowns. While many hope to pick up where they left off, Wuhan’s cautious emergence shows it likely won’t be that easy. The city, once a bustling hub for steel and auto manufacturing, remains gripped by fear of reinfection. Companies are testing employees before they’re allowed back to work and disinfecting their premises daily. If a customer or worker gets the virus, businesses typically have to shut down again for weeks of quarantine—something even the most painstakingly prepared business plan can’t predict."

Trechos retirados de "Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. Yet They Aren’t"

Brace for impact - #schadenfreude

Acaba de ser actualizado o Atlas of Economic Complexity atlas.cid.harvard.edu. (Portugal 2017)

We're excited to announce the latest update to our Atlas of Economic Complexity (@Atlas_Facts), which brings new & improved navigation to the Explore panel & integrates elements from the #CountryProfiles. https://t.co/L6OUuolp3U @ricardo_hausman

— Harvard's Growth Lab (@HarvardGrwthLab) March 12, 2020

Bom para perceber os desafios que aí vêm...

• impacte no turismo
• talvez já tenhamos passado pelo pico do automóvel - Bosch Believes Car Production Has Peaked, And Is Going Down
• talvez já tenhamos passado o pico do combustível petrolífero

Mais bandarilhas da austeridade no lombo dos hospedeiros-saxões.

Entretanto, os fragilistas continuam concentrados na distribuição e sem equacionar o aumento da riqueza gerada.

Demografia e segunda-mão

Ontem ouvi grande parte deste podcast, "Adam Minter on Secondhand" e fiquei admirado com os milhões de dólares envolvidos no negócio dos materiais em segunda-mão. À medida que a onda demográfica avança cada vez mais pessoas optam por mudar para casas mais pequenas e desfazer-se de muitos dos seus bens. Algo semelhante ao que li sobre o que acontece no Japão aos bens dos idosos falecidos. Recordo "Dying Alone in Japan: The Industry Devoted to What’s Left Behind" que referi em "Negócio de futuro".

Entretanto, antes tinha lido "By 2023, the secondhand clothes market will double to $51 billion. Here’s why".

Também recordo:

• Compras em segunda-mão (Março de 2019)
• Estratégia, Economia Circular, Novos Modelos de Negócio (Dezembro de 2019)

E:

• E a demografia? (Junho de 2019)
• Demografia e clientes-alvo (Janeiro de 2020)

Talvez nesta Europa, ainda mais envelhecida que os Estados Unidos, e para onde exportamos tanto do nosso calçado, este factor também seja relevante para se juntar à lista:

• Comoditização da posição baseada na flexibilidade e rapidez;
• Deterioração do actual modelo de negócio baseado nas feiras;
• Envelhecimento dos antigos clientes-alvo.

Tempo para desenhar cenários alternativos

A propósito de "Audi vai cortar 9.500 empregos na Alemanha até 2025"

"Audi shocked Germany yesterday with the announcement of almost 10,000 job cuts, leading to prompt accusations of mismanagement. We are no experts in management but would offer the observation that mismanagement is as prevalent in the car industry today as it has been before. The decline of the fuel-driven car and the diesel scandal have been a huge problem for Audi and the other German car makers. They need the money for new investments.
.
The decline of the German car industry is happening on many levels. Car component suppliers are being hit the hardest. Some are so specialised that the phase-out of the fuel-driven engine puts them out of business. Electric engines are much simpler than combustion ones and they use only a fraction of the parts. These, in turn, are not as highly tuned. The technological know-how, and the value-added, lies in the battery.
.
Audi is the first of the big German car makers to announce job cuts. Next year, most of the job losses in the sector are likely to occur in the supplier industries. Jobs in the car industry still protected until 2021 and 2022, due to job guarantees. The employment effect will therefore reveal itself over a longer period of time.
.
We note two overlapping effects - one is a relatively mild global cyclical downturn. The other is a structural technology shock. The impact of the latter will be much longer lasting."

Há cerca de um ano que as empresas de moldes estão a sentir a travagem brutal da cadeia de fornecimento de novos modelos automóveis. Ainda hoje vi um mapa comparativo que ilustra a guerra de preços em que até as multinacionais de peças e serviços estão a entrar.

Entretanto, numa leitura matinal que fez lembrar o ministro da Economia apanhei:

"Yet it took Xerox about 10 years to begin rethinking how to find a radically different relationship, between a new set of (a) capabilities and (b) its understanding of customers' value creation"

Portanto, muita turbulência a caminho. Nada que não prevêssemos aqui.

Surpresa? Só para os fragilistas.

Masoquismo ou mau feitio? Não, apenas as "certezas" que resultam da conjugação de uma série de factores:

• alterações tecnológicas;
• advento de Mongo e as suas encomendas pequenas com muita variedade;
• incapacidade de um modelo de negócio durar para sempre (lembram-se do tempo de Cavaco?)

Trecho retirado de "Audi cuts jobs - the beginning of a trend"

"Innovation in manufacturing gravitates to where the factories are"

"In 1987, as the Reagan administration was nearing its end, the economists Stephen S. Cohen and John Zysman issued a prophetic warning: “If high-tech is to sustain a scale of activity sufficient to matter to the prosperity of our economy…America must control the production of those high-tech products it invents and designs.” Production, they continued, is “where the lion’s share of the value added is realized.” Amid the offshoring frenzy that began in the late 1980s, this was heterodox thinking.
...
Manufacturing in China is cheaper, quicker and more flexible, they argue. With China’s networks of suppliers, engineers and production experts growing larger and more sophisticated, many believe that locating production there is a better bet in terms of quality and efficiency. Instead of manufacturing domestically, the thinking goes, U.S. firms should focus on higher-value work: “innovate here, manufacture there.”
.
Today many Americans are rightly questioning this perspective.
...
there is a growing recognition that we can no longer afford the outsourcing paradigm. Once manufacturing departs from a country’s shores, engineering and production know-how leave as well, and innovation ultimately follows. It’s become increasingly clear that “manufacture there” now also means “innovate there.”
...
Innovation in manufacturing gravitates to where the factories are. American manufacturers have learned that the applied research and engineering necessary to introduce new products, enhance existing designs and improve production processes are best done near the factories themselves. As more engineering and design work has shifted to China, many U.S. companies have a diminished capability to perform those tasks here.
...
In terms of long-term competitiveness, the biggest strategic consequence of this profound decline in American manufacturing might be the loss of our ability to innovate—that is, to translate inventions into production. We have lost much of our capacity to physically build what results from our world-leading investments in research and development. A study of 150 production-related hardware startups that emerged from research at MIT found that most of them scaled up production offshore to get access to production capabilities, suppliers and lead customers. As for foreign multinationals, many participate in federally funded university research centers and then use what they learn in their factories abroad."

Trecho retirado do WSJ de 16.11.2019, "Innovation Should Be Made in the U.S.A."

Disrupção e "morte"

Ontem, mandaram-me um e-mail com este artigo "3D-Druck verlängert das Leben europäischer Autos in Afrika" e com o comentário, bem visto: 

"Corresponde a uma lógica de economia circular com uma pegada  ecológica “pesada” ao manter carros pouco eficientes em funcionamento"

Verdade, mas o que me atraiu no artigo é a contradição subjacente.

O artigo é sobre um jovem estudante de engenharia, numa universiadade nigeriana, que ganhou um prémio ao ter desenvolvido uma biela para um velho Alfa Romeo através da impressão 3D. Já não é possível encontrar à venda peças para modelos de carros muito antigos, quando estes avariam em África.

Queremos praticar e desenvolver uma Economia Circular, mas estaremos preparados para arcar com as consequências?

A CECIMO, uma associação europeia de fabricantes de máquinas e ferramentas, no seu site chama a atenção para a sua importância ao dar emprego a 147 mil pessoas. No entanto, a mesma CECIMO no artigo refere:

"A Associação Europeia de Fabricantes de Máquinas-Ferramenta (Cecimo) vê a produção aditiva, a impressão 3D, como a principal tecnologia para uma economia circular. Por um lado, isso aumentará a produtividade, mas também economizará recursos de forma sustentável. Consumidores e utilizadores poderão beneficiar de produtos mais duráveis e que consomem menos energia. A eficiência do material, a reciclagem, a funcionalidade aprimorada dos componentes e a descentralização são alguns dos benefícios que a impressão 3D traz para a Economia Circular."

A impressão 3D baixará as barreiras de entrada e democratizará a produção de peças e componentes. O artigo refere:

"Em breve todas as empresas de artesanato e todas as oficinas deverão explorar as possibilidades de tecnologias de impressão 3D descentralizada e funcionalmente optimizada."[Moi ici: Deixei de propósito a tradução mixiruca do Google Tradutor, "empresas de artesanato", porque vai ao encontro do que penso e escrevo - aqui, aqui, aqui e aqui, por exemplo] 

A impressão 3D elevará para outro nível o potencial de bailado entre produtores e clientes:

Recordar aqui, aqui e aqui, por exemplo.

A impressão 3D provocará a disrupção e "morte" entre os membros da CECIMO.

É só olhar para o depois de amanhã e para as consequências naturais do que a tecnologia e a interacção com o gosto vai permitir.

Continua.

Stupid Cassandras, não vêem o oásis

“Andy Grove articulated this point in his original work on strategic inflection points. Before the pattern is clear, he said, you have to let a certain amount of chaos reign. Lots of inputs, lots of ideas, and lots of arguments are essential. Only after you have sufficient information (the weak signals have become strong enough) should you coalesce the organization around a selected strategic path.
Absolute candor—and the willingness to confront unpleasant information—is crucial here. Wishing things were different is a recipe for corporate disaster.
...
leaders should search for the presence of anomalies—events that occur outside the expected range. Taking in lots of information is seen as critical to seeing emergent patterns. Taleb points out an interesting approach to getting high-quality information: “Don’t take advice from those who are not at risk” for the consequences of a possible inflection point.
.
High-performing CEOs are unanimously alike in this one thing: they insist on total candor and brutal truth, even if it challenges their previously held assumptions.
...
Crescive leaders listen to alarmists—those people who occasionally are dismissed as Cassandras for conveying bad news. Instead of immediately dismissing them, we should think of them instead as “helpful Cassandras,” who broaden the range of outcomes we are considering or who are exposed to subtle or key inputs that are different from those we normally see.”

Li isto e comparei com o que tinha acabado de ler no jornal Público de ontem:

 Entretanto, sob um outro paradigma, "Innovationskraft sinkt: Der deutsche Mittelstand verschläft die Zukunft":

"Demnach verfügt nur ein Viertel der Unternehmen über die nötige Innovationskompetenz und -kultur, um ihre Wettbewerbsposition langfristig zu sichern. Fast die Hälfte der Firmen hat es dagegen in den zurückliegenden Jahren verpasst, ihr Innovationsprofil an neue Bedingungen anzupassen. Das trifft vor allem auf kleinere und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) zu. „Verpassen diese KMU den Zeitpunkt für den notwendigen Strukturwandel hin zu mehr Innovationsfähigkeit, können sie und ihre Beschäftigten schnell zu Opfern veränderter Marktbedingungen werden“, warnt Armando García Schmidt von der Bertelsmann Stiftung."

Stupid Cassandras Germans ... comparar com os discursos de tomada de posse por cá.

Trechos retirado de “Seeing Around Corners” de Rita McGrath.

"Listen to them now about their priorities and values"

O artigo "The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch" termina assim:

"Listen to the next generation. By 2030, the leading edge of millennials will be nearing 50, and they and Gen Z will make up the vast majority of the workforce. Listen to them now about their priorities and values."

O que é viver num país em que a dívida aumenta todos os anos?

É viver num país que privilegia a geração actual, e atira para as costas das gerações futuras o fardo de ter de pagar as suas contas, ao mesmo tempo que só terão um resto para viverem as suas próprias vidas.

Há qualquer coisa de irónico, de provocador em "Listen to them now about their priorities and values". Sim, façamos de conta que os ouvimos, mas carreguemos-lhes o jugo mais e mais, mas limitemos-lhes as opções mais e mais.

Isto não é exclusivo desta geração actual já vem detrás, mas parece uma bola de neve que vai crescendo.

Uma caldeirada de emoções (parte x)

De ontem.

Agora leio "Quebra na indústria alemã sugere que retoma é uma miragem":

"Os fabricantes de bens intermédios viram as encomendas descerem 1,5% e os bens de capital (como maquinaria pesada) perderam 2,8%. Já em Abril, a comparação homóloga mostrava uma indústria em crise: nesse mês, a quebra face a 2018 era de 5,3%.
.
Alguns analistas dizem que este comportamento mostra os danos que a guerra comercial entre EUA e China pode provocar à economia mundial. Carsten Brzeski, do banco ING, diz que as novidades germânicas são “devastadoras”. “Começámos a perder o nosso optimismo”, reage este analista, lembrando que Março e Abril até tinham sido meses com variações positivas (ainda que muito pequenas). Porém, “combinando os dados de Maio com os dados de Junho do mercado de trabalho, que registou a mais fraca prestação desde 2002, e os dados desanimadores do retalho, a economia alemã fecha desta forma uma semana para esquecer. O factor medo regressou”, sustenta Brzeski."

Em que medida estes sintomas estão a ser incorporados na reflexão sobre o curto-médio prazo da sua empresa?


BTW ontem ouvi o líder do maior partido da oposição prometer o corte de impostos com base no crescimento da economia, ou seja sem cortes na despesa. Hoje ouvi na rádio que as previsões de crescimento da economia no programa eleitoral do partido do governo são mais optimistas que as do governo. Só fragilistas por todo o lado.

Uma caldeirada de emoções

Recentemente em "Vantagens comparativas" escrevi:

• "Trump (quando tiverem tempo leiam bem este artigo "What’s Your 'Plan B' for Made in China?" é longo, mas vale bem a pena o investimento. E já agora, depois leiam "Equilibrium Americanum")"

É impressionante como o tema está em ebulição permanente. Agora é "Vietnam's apparel sector fears cost surge as tech giants move in":

"Major apparel makers are halting or slowing their expansion in Vietnam amid worries that the trade war will indirectly push up labor costs as tech giants like Apple seek to shift production out of China.
...
"More and more companies come to Vietnam ... In the foreseeable future, we do foresee a shortage of labors and even fierce competitions in hiring staff there," Makalot Chairman and CEO Frank Chou told the Nikkei Asian Review. For the apparel industry specifically, the best time to invest in Vietnam may have passed, Chou said, and companies will have to adjust to a tougher environment.
...
the minimum wage in Vietnam has risen over the last 10 years from 1 million Vietnamese dong ($43) a month to 4.18 million dong per month in 2019, according to the government, although this is still lower than China. The Vietnamese government also requires all manufacturers to raise wages by more than 10% each year.
...
"Companies in traditional industries will be squeezed as tech companies are also heading to Vietnam," said Karen Ma, an analyst specializing in emerging markets at Hsinchu-based Industrial Technology Research Institute. "Meanwhile, the cost of expansion there will definitely become much more expansive. ... Most of these existing players in the textile and footwear industry will face a dilemma: Where should they go if they are leaving Vietnam? Currently, there are not many choices for them left in the region as Laos and Indonesia have not yet reached Vietnam's level in terms of infrastructure and quality of the workforce.""

Recordar o banhista gordo "O banhista gordo e o low-cost"

Um futuro melhor será construído, com sofrimento

@AllanMoura Caro Allan, há muito q de longe acompanho o namoro tóxico do Brasil com o proteccionismo http://t.co/VhFGdwU9ss.

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 13, 2015

 

Ao longo dos anos, quando me lembro das previsões que fiz aqui em 2007, 2008 e 2009 acerca da economia portuguesa e europeia concluo que acertei em quase tudo. A grande excepção foi a intervenção do BCE com o QE.

Previ aqui a inversão do desemprego, enquanto os media ainda andavam a fazer capas afundados na variação homóloga. Previ aqui o sucesso do calçado e o regresso do têxtil quando tais previsões geravam sorrisos trocistas.

Acho um exercício saudável e instrutivo fazer previsões e, depois, confrontar o real com o previsto. Eventuais diferenças alertam-nos para o que descuramos. E, durante a viagem para o futuro, mantemos-nos alertas para novas informações que possam reforçar ou enfraquecer a nossa previsão.

Escrevo isto a propósito de "5 perguntas para entender o acordo “histórico” entre UE e Mercosul" e "Oito perguntas para entender melhor acordo entre Mercosul e União Europeia".

@pauloperes 2º Como pode o Brasil virar exportador a sério se é proteccionista em casa? 3/3

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) August 11, 2015

 

O que conheço da economia brasileira é o que resulta das tentativas das PMEs exportarem para esse país e encontrarem barreiras alfandegárias tremendas como existiam em Portugal em 1986.

Ainda teremos de saber em termos práticos qual o nível de abertura. É difícil acreditar numa abertura agrícola francesa ou numa abertura industrial brasileira. No entanto, será interessante que as PMEs portuguesas avaliem o nível de abertura proporcionado e as oportunidades potenciais.

Admitindo uma abertura real, as PMEs brasileiras que se cuidem. Sabem o que aconteceu em Portugal? 

Com a adesão à então CEE primeiro perdemos muitas empresas que competiam pela nata do mercado interno, porque foram incapazes de fazer frente a marcas mais caras, mas com mais poder afectivo/emocional. Depois, com a China perdemos as PMEs do preço baixo.

Portanto, não serão assim tão duras as cabeças:

Ainda andam nisto? Que cabeças duras. https://t.co/ANv4gO5cTx

— jcd (@jcaetanodias) June 30, 2019

 

É claro que há vida depois do acordo.

Só que não acontecerá de um dia para o outro, nem acontecerá com a maioria das empresas que existem hoje. Como costumo repetir aqui (Maliranta e Nassim Taleb) a maioria das empresas está tão presa ao passado que não consegue ver as oportunidades. Por isso, morrem. Um futuro melhor será construído por empresas novas, por gente sem modelos mentais castradores que as prendem ao passado. No entretanto, muita gente vai sofrer durante a transição.

"Such volatility highlights the folly of strategic inertia or, worse, managerial hubris"

“Overcoming myopia begins with situating the organisation and its transactional environment within the broader context of society. Such a perspective recognises the deeper causal relationships that enable and drive industry dynamics and outcomes. Understanding what these causal relationships are, how they might change and how they could affect future operating dynamics is the essence of scenario planning.
.
The transactional environment is the arena in which the organisation participates, where the perceived value or benefits it creates are exchanged to satisfy perceived wants and needs. The organisation has an immediate relationship with this environment. The actions of industry stakeholders can have a direct influence on the organisation; and through its policies and actions, the organisation can exert direct influence on industry outcomes. Actors within this environment include customers, employees, distributors, suppliers, regulators, competitors, unions and other relevant participants

The dynamics of the transactional environment are invariably enabled or driven by factors beyond the industry’s boundaries. Within this broader social environment are the deeper, less obvious factors influencing industry dynamics, including demographics, social values, technology, climate, legislation, employment levels and interest rates.
.
Together these factors evolve, interact and combine to provide a shifting and dynamic context for the organisation’s operations. At any given time, a unique mix of factors is interacting to produce a particular operating context. And as changes occur across each of these factors, this mix changes, shaping the attitudes, behaviours, wants and needs of society, and ultimately influencing the benefits customers seek from your business 

This shifting contextual dynamic serves up a series of ongoing strategic fitness tests where the corporate challenge is to remain in alignment with the environment. Such volatility highlights the folly of strategic inertia or, worse, managerial hubris, a point well made by Theodore Levitt in his classic article ‘Marketing Myopia’. ‘In truth, there is no such thing as a growth industry,’ he argued. ‘There are only companies organized and operated to create and capitalize on growth opportunities. Industries that assume themselves to be riding some automatic growth escalator invariably descend into stagnation.’[Moi ici: Lembra-se da malta que espera a boleia da maré?]
.
By instead adopting a contextual outlook, historical trends, and the forecasts based on these trends, are put into perspective. You are able to look at your historical performance, not from the position of absolute outcomes and trends, but from the deeper perspective of underlying drivers and conditions that led to those outcomes. The result is an appreciation for society’s fluency and a broader outlook towards the future.”

Trecho de Steve Tighe retirado de “Rethinking Strategy”

Cassandras-doentias e opções repentinas e unilaterais

Por vezes, as organizações e o contexto que as rodeia estão em sintonia e as organizações prosperam. No entanto, o mais provável é que essa sintonia não dure para sempre, ou porque a organização muda, ou porque o contexto muda, ou porque ambos mudam.

Muitas organizações, arrisco escrever, a maioria, adiam as mudanças para fazer face à alteração do status quo, esperando que se aguardarem o suficiente os astros vão novamente alinhar-se e tudo voltará à normalidade. Só que quanto mais tempo adiam a mudança, mais a dimensão da mudança cresce.

Também há organizações que apelidam de Cassandras-doentias os que com tempo, com antecedência, avisam o que com grande probabilidade aí virá. Assim, as organizações em vez de se prepararem para  uma mais que provável disrupção, antes apostam todas as fichas na manutenção do status quo, apesar de todos os avisos.

Este artigo, "Colégio da Imaculada Conceição, em Coimbra, fecha portas. Não resistiu à “grave situação financeira”" ilustra um caso em que os sinais da mudança foram ignorados e quando se quis fazer algo já era tarde de mais.

"em 2016, o contrato chegou ao fim. “Tratou-se de uma opção repentina e unilateral tomada, na altura, pelo Ministério da Educação, à qual o CAIC foi alheio e à qual se opôs desde a primeira hora, mas sem sucesso”, refere a instituição.
...
Os jesuítas garantem que foram desenvolvidos “todos os esforços para reconfigurar o Colégio à nova condição de colégio privado”. Por exemplo, “o essencial dos encargos passou a ser assumido pelas famílias” e foram “tomadas medidas no sentido de reduzir os encargos, de envolver doadores e de captar novos alunos”. Além disso, ao longo de um ano letivo (2016/2017), o colégio assegurou o seu funcionamento em regime gratuito para os alunos, mesmo já sem o financiamento do estado “num número muito significativo de turmas”.
...
Mas os esforços não foram suficientes. De acordo com a Companhia de Jesus, a “insustentabilidade financeira” tornou-se numa “evidência incontornável, agravando-se os défice de exploração”."

Recordo:

• O paradoxo da estratégia (parte VIII: cenários, futurização e incerteza) (Julho de 2008)
• 27 meses depois (Novembro de 2010) 
• Mais uma sugestão de modelo de negócio (parte I) (Dezembro de 2010)

Tendências

Na sequência de "Alterações que podem ter implicações ..."

"BoF: What industry shifts are you most optimistic about?
.
DLR: The two biggest changes are sustainability and inclusivity. 10 years ago, [sustainability] was kind of a niche topic, [but] now it’s on everybody’s lips — everyone from Zara to H&M and Arket are using sustainable fibres. Everybody in our industry is getting conscious about our impact on the environment, as well as how popular and sales-driving it can be to become more eco-responsible.
...
BoF: What topics should the fashion industry be debating more vigorously?
.
DLR: In my personal opinion, one of the biggest issues at the moment is overproduction. There's too much product and too many collections. The market is oversaturated. I don't know how this trend could stop but, the industry — both fast fashion and luxury brands — are moving towards the concept of dropping small capsule collections with the aim of selling out. This could be a test for being more limited in production.
...
BoF: What are you doing differently in your role this year?
.
DLR: My roles at Valentino and Loro Piana are the complete opposite of overproduction. We actually want to produce and sell just a bit less than what people are going to buy because in luxury, we are all based on rarity and desirability. We cannot — and do not want to — overproduce. It has to remain a very special and precious style that you will keep for years, if not generations.
.
At Loro Piana, our ultimate focus is quality, durability [and] sourcing the most precious fibres out there. On a professional and personal level, it's already going against this overproduction and overconsumption, as it's a kind of conscious consumption."

Acham que as estruturas produtivas de ontem continuarão a ser as de amanhã?

Trechos retirados de "Loro Piana's Danielle Lesage-Rochette: 'One of the Biggest Issues at the Moment Is Overproduction'"

"Thinking about the future"

"If somebody tells you they can predict the future, don't believe them. Nobody can predict large socio-technical transformations and what exactly these are going to look like.
...
So, if no one can predict the future, why think about it? Because doing so helps you to inoculate yourself. In the medical field, inoculating yourself prevents you from falling ill. In futures thinking, if you've considered a whole range of possibilities, you're kind of inoculating yourself. If one of these possibilities comes about, you're better prepared.
...
Thinking about the future is also about imagining. It's about transforming how we think. It's about creating a map to the future and looking for the big areas of opportunity. We like to think about transformations, for example, in learning and work, and how they get connected and intertwined in various ways. And then we start thinking about zones of opportunity. How can we shape the future to make it more equitable? How can we amplify learning outcomes? What do we need to do to achieve these outcomes?
.
The future doesn't just happen to us. We have agency in imagining and creating the kind of future we want to live in, and we can take actions to get us there.
...
I said earlier that there is no data about the future; the only data we have is about the past. While we cannot fully rely on past data to help us see the future, there are larger patterns in history that we tend to repeat over and over again. Thus, we need to look back to see forward.
...
At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. Futures thinking skills are essential for everyone to learn in order to better navigate their own lives and to make better decisions in the face of so many transformations in our basic technologies and organizational structures. The more you practice futures thinking, the better you get. The five principles outlined above—not focusing on predictions, uncovering signals, understanding historical trajectories, weaving together larger patterns, and bringing diverse voices into the conversation—should help you on your journey of making futures thinking a way of life for you and your community."

Trechos retirados "Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist"

Uma ilusão perigosa

Mal apanhei, por acaso, esta lista de artigos, comecei a pensar no calçado e no futuro das suas feiras:

• Art Fairs Are Popping Up Everywhere. Do They Make Any Money?
• ‘It Isn’t Working Anymore’: Dealers at Frieze New York Reckon With the Thorny State of the Art Market
• The Rise of Art Fairs: Convenience for Busy Plutocrats or Social Proof for Uneasy Collectors
• What Is the Future of the Art Fair?
• The shifting fortunes of art fairs

Até aqui:

"Increasing Online Sales and Current World Events Are Affecting Attendance Numbers"

Isto não tem nada a ver com o calçado, por isso dá algum distanciamento para fazer para comparações.

Feiras nascem e morrem, porque prestam ou deixam de prestar um serviço.

Os mercados não são estáticos, e as soluções que funcionam num momento podem ficar obsoletas num momento seguinte.

É fundamental estar atento, questionar e não ficar preso a soluções que deixaram de resultar.

A estabilidade é uma ilusão e uma ilusão perigosa.

O que é que julgam que vai dar?

Agora que o Masterchef Australia está a chegar ao fim convido a uma reflexão sobre o que vai sair desta receita:

• OCDE: Portugal entre os seis países que aumentaram os impostos às empresas
• Indicador da OCDE para a economia portuguesa renova mínimo de cinco anos
• Produção industrial caiu 2,9% em Portugal em novembro de 2018
• Vem aí uma nova vaga de obras públicas. Setor pede criação de um visto gold para a construção
• Rocha Andrade: "Há países que atraem empresas, Portugal atrai pessoas"
• Otimismo de Costa e Centeno enfrenta incerteza global

O que é que julgam que vai dar?

Como é que a sua empresa se está a preparar?

Hoje ligou-me uma multinacional que opera no sector A porque quer repensar a estratégia.

Na semana passada cliente contou-me que clientes seus, que operam no sector A, estão apreensivos. Têm trabalho para seis meses e depois parou tudo. 

- O que vão fazer? - perguntei.

Estão à espera que entretanto a coisa melhore. 

Quanto mais tarde se reconhece e aborda um problema, mais ele cresce, mais grave fica e maior a transformação necessária para chegar a um novo estado positivo.