"World trade volumes fell in the early months of 2015, once again disappointing the expectations of economists."Interessante, recordar:
"Birth rates for U.S. women in their 20s dropped more than 15% between 2007 and 2012,"
"4. Strategy = Choice.Muito bom, sumo de categoria.
In my eyes, this is the most simple strategy definition. You need a clear choice of WHO you are going to serve and a clear choice of HOW you are going to serve those clients. It’s about connecting the outside world – the demand side – with your company – the supply side. Or in fancy terms: you need a value proposition for a specific customer segment and to develop unique activities in the value chain to serve them. The key word is ‘choice’. You cannot be everything to everybody. You want to target a limited segment of potential buyers with the same needs. Next, you are going to tailor your activities in such a way that they meet these needs. Or in fancy terms: you want to tailor your value chain – your company’s activities – to your value proposition. Strategic innovation is the process to make those choices – defining a new who and how for the organisation."
"Information creates more value than inventory and interaction creates more value than information!" (fonte)Algures li uma afirmação de Kasparov que dizia que um grande mestre perdia sempre contra um supercomputador, mas que um jogador mediano com um computador mediano, juntos batiam sempre o supercomputador.
"Most of what we think of as expertise, knowledge and intuition is being deconstructed and recreated as an algorithmic competency, fueled by big data.Nós humanos não somos explicáveis por leis newtonianas. Sim, o retalho levava a deles avante ao principio, com os saldos. Agora, nós humanos, torpedeamos o seu sistema, porque aprendemos a dar a volta. Vai ser bonito ver os humanos a aprender e a tomar partido de formas de enganar as máquinas.
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Machines aren’t used because they perform some tasks that much better than humans, but because, in many cases, they do a “good enough” job while also being cheaper, more predictable and easier to control than quirky, pesky humans. Technology in the workplace is as much about power and control as it is about productivity and efficiency.
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the way technology is being used in many workplaces: to reduce the power of humans, and employers’ dependency on them, whether by replacing, displacing or surveilling them.
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It’s easy to imagine an alternate future where advanced machine capabilities are used to empower more of us, rather than control most of us. There will potentially be more time, resources and freedom to share, but only if we change how we do things. We don’t need to reject or blame technology. This problem is not us versus the machines, but between us, as humans, and how we value one another."
"In the most recent recession, routine jobs collapsed and simply have not recovered, with employment in both cognitive and manual jobs down by more than 5% if the tasks are mostly routine.
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In recessions of the 1960s and 1970s, routine jobs would fall during the recession but quickly snap back. But after the recession in 1990, something changed. Routine jobs fell and, as a share of the population, never recovered. In the recessions in 2001 and in 2007-09 they fell even further. The snapback never occurred, suggesting that many firms began coping with recessions by scrapping tasks that could be automated or more easily outsourced.
For his part, Mr. Siu thinks jobs have been taken away by automation, more than by outsourcing.
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“Many of the routine occupations that were once commonplace have begun to disappear, while others have become obsolete,” they write. “This is because the tasks involved in these occupations, by their nature, are prime candidates to be performed by new technologies.”
"2. Strategy = compete for profit
Business is not about having the largest market share or about growing fast. It’s about making money. ‘I want to grow my business’ is not a strategy. [Moi ici: Recordar o truque de Roger Martin, uma estratégia é uma escolha, se o oposto dessa escolha for estúpido então não é uma estratégia] ‘I want to grow my business’ is the same as saying, ‘I want to be rich’. Those things (unfortunately) don’t happen by themselves. Growing is not a strategy, it’s a consequence. When someone includes growth in their strategy, there should be an orange light starting to blink. [Moi ici: Volume is vanity, Profit is sanity] That does not mean that you cannot use the word ‘growth’. I use it a lot in the analysis phase – for example, when you talk about growth areas of the business or when you look for growth platforms – areas where you can reach potential that will give you additional profit."
Hospitalized at home business models will proliferate.
— Saul Kaplan (@skap5) April 28, 2015
Em Mongo, em vez de uma barragem do Alqueva, dezenas e dezenas de pequenas barragens, como propunha Ribeiro Teles.
For the prepared, if you leap, the net will appear.
— Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) April 27, 2015
Achei-a perfeita.
"If you follow your bliss, you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while, waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. Wherever you are — if you are following your bliss, you are enjoying that refreshment, that life within you, all the time.
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If you do follow your bliss you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while, waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. When you can see that, you begin to meet people who are in the field of your bliss, and they open the doors to you. I say, follow your bliss and don’t be afraid, and doors will open where you didn’t know they were going to be."
"Mas pode esta desvalorização cambial substituir a desvalorização interna que a troika - e o Governo - pretendiam no arranque do programa de ajustamento? "Não substitui, mas ajuda na medida em que constitui um alívio e minora o impacto negativo estrutural interno, por exemplo sob o emprego", explica Paula Carvalho, economista-chefe do BPI.Que o governo e a troika não percebam de microeconomia e não olhem para os dados, ainda percebo. Agora que a economista-chefe do BPI não o faça... custa-me mais a engolir.
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“Algumas empresas sentirão alguma folga, que deve ser aproveitada para garantir melhorias (e reforço de competitividade) mais definitivas, que não estejam dependentes da evolução cambial”, acrescentou Paula Carvalho em declarações ao Negócios."
"constitui um alívio e minora o impacto negativo estrutural interno, por exemplo sob o emprego"Onde está o desemprego?
"Algumas empresas sentirão alguma folga, que deve ser aproveitada para garantir melhorias (e reforço de competitividade) mais definitivas, que não estejam dependentes da evolução cambial”"É de quem não conhece os humanos. Os empresários são humanos, não são maximizers, são satisficers. Mais de 90% dos humanos só muda quando encostado à parede, pressionado pelas circunstâncias. Sem pressão, não há motivação para agir.
"1. Compete to be unique, not to be the best
Strategy is not about being the best, but about being unique. [Moi ici: Parece a conversa de ontem numa empresa, como podemos ser diferentes, como podemos fazer a diferença] Competing to be the best in business is one of the major misconceptions about strategy. [Moi ici: Recordar a regra de Roger Martin "You only know that you've made a real strategic choice if you can say the opposite of what that choice is, and it's not stupid." Competir para ser o pior faz sentido? Não! Então, competir para ser o melhor não é uma escolha, não é uma estratégia] And if you only remember one tip from this list, it should be this one. Many leaders compare competition in business with the world of sports. There can only be one winner. But competing in business is more complex. There can be several winners. It does not have to be a zero sum game – you win, I lose or vice versa. Within a single industry, you can have several companies beating the industry average, each with a distinctive, different strategy. They are no direct threat to each other. There can be several winners. So the worst possible approach to strategy is to seek out the biggest player in the industry and try to copy everything they do."[Moi ici: Sublinhado que logo me fez recordar o que penso que acontece neste sector]
"This notion of a future that hasn’t quite conformed to prior expectations is perhaps the most striking facet of Strategy&’s recent series on industry trends,Impressiona esta incapacidade de imaginar Mongo!
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Companies in every industry are confronting an imagination gap between the established and safe — but rapidly aging — way of doing business and the opportunities and challenges of the technologies emerging today.
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For every sector, it is essential to close the imagination gap by incorporating technology into business models in more creative ways.
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Company strategists presumed a world in which computers everywhere would let customers more expediently and seamlessly access their own business offerings. In this view of the future, the companies themselves were the center of the transaction, determining what products or services to offer, when and where to offer them on the digital grid, how much to charge, what form these items would take, and how quickly they would be delivered. Whether purchasing electricity from a utility or a CD from Amazon, consumers in this vision were, in effect, bystanders, getting limited value out of the deal (generally, some level of convenience and discounts). The largest gains — in efficiency, an expanded customer base, marketing outreach, the sheer number and variety of products and services offered, and lowered costs — would always accrue, in this scenario, toward the companies that used digital technology purely to enhance their existing way of doing business.
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this approach to the kinetic landscape will never work."
"The commercial transportation industry is facing perhaps the most radical technology-inspired change in customer behavior. Manufacturers, the sector’s biggest customers, are rapidly adopting 3D printing, which lets companies produce finished goods from a single piece of equipment and minimal amounts of raw material, rather than assembling them from dozens, hundreds, or thousands of parts procured globally.O futuro não será uma projecção linear do passado. O que é que a sua empresa faz para imaginar os futuros possíveis? O que faz para aproveitar esses futuros?
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The implication is dramatic: As the need to purchase parts from multiple global sources diminishes, component and materials shipments, a substantial portion of the commercial transportation sector’s revenue stream, will be eliminated or greatly reduced. In fact, as much as 41 percent of the air cargo business and 37 percent of the ocean container business is at risk because of 3D printing. [Moi ici: E os que imaginam o TGV dos portos...] Roughly a quarter of the trucking freight business is also exposed, owing to the potential decline in goods that start as air cargo or as containers on ships and ultimately need some form of overland transport.
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The electric power sector is also on the threshold of major change.
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power supplied locally is often cheaper than power supplied via the traditional electric grid. Relatively low amounts of customer-sited generation can significantly affect utility financial performance. According to one study, a market penetration rate of just 5 percent could lead to an earnings reduction for utilities of between 4 and 9 percent.
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In the retail and consumer goods spheres, shoppers’ behavior has become wildly pluralistic. People want to move easily across online and offline purchasing channels while demanding an ever-increasing number of product options and full visibility into inventory and pricing.
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Similar consumer-driven disruptions can be seen in healthcare, as individuals use digital channels to obtain more personalized information about their well-being from their providers and as they demand bundled, transparent programs that allow them to pay a single fee for tests and treatments related to a condition or procedure. In the chemicals industry, innovation is moving away from the blockbuster breakthroughs of the late 20th century and toward more incremental advances that address particular customer problems. In the automotive sector, consumers — awash in easily accessible information about vehicle specifications, prices, discounts, quality, and performance — are less loyal to individual brands than in the past and are seeking more sophisticated features at a low cost. They also want a seamless online/offline car-buying experience that simplifies the purchase decision, financing, and insurance."
"Alemanha é quem mais ganha?A Alemanha será a mais beneficiada mas não por ser grande.
O BCE estima que uma depreciação de 10% do euro, faz aumentar 0,4% o PIB da Zona Euro e 0,6% a inflação. Embora se antecipem ganhos para Portugal a partir deste movimento, há quem aponte que os principais beneficiários serão os grandes países, com a Alemanha à cabeça."
"Many markets have a structure in which brands or products are aligned on a "value-map" of perceived product value vs. price as shown in Figure 4.4. This particular map shows three market tiers: economy, middle market, and premium.[Moi ici: Consideremos, por exemplo, o sector da maquinaria onde marcas alemãs e portuguesas concorrem. Normalmente, a marca alemã é mais cara, e compete no tier-premium. A marca portuguesa, mais barata, compete no tier-middle market]"
Assim, facilmente se percebe porque é que a Alemanha ganha mais, porque tem mais marcas premium."The appropriate number of tiers to utilize is situation specific. A two-tier (branded vs. nonbranded) separation is sometimes useful. ... Regardless of the number of tiers, the essential point is the same: one's chosen position on the "value-map" effectively implies a strategy and defines a relevant competitive set. ...
- competition within a price-tier is typically more vigorous than across tiers.
- there is an asymmetry in competition across tiers. Price cuts by higher quality tiers are more powerful in pulling customers up from lower tiers, than lower tier price cuts are in pulling customers down from upper tiers; i.e., customers "trade up" more readily than they "trade down."
Pictorially, we show this in Figure 4-5 for a two-tier market, which for simplicity we show as having two premium brands P1 and P2 and two economy brands E1 and E2....Figure 4-5 shows a "fence" separating the premium and economy tiers. The "fence" denotes the fact that a price cut by any brand typically impacts its same-tier competitors more strongly. ... A price cut by premium tier brand P1 draws to it economy tier buyers - who are able to slip through the spacing in the "picket fence" portion at the upper left end of the fence. That is, P1, has some clout in being able to induce customers from the economy tier to "trade up" to it. However, if E2 cuts price, the premium brand buyers conceptually crash into the solid portion of the fence on the lower right, without trading down to the economy segment. E2's price cut can increase its sales volume - by drawing El customers or increasing the category consumption rate - but it will not draw many customers away from the premium brands."
"O Lobo e o Cordeiro
Para o mesmo rio, o lobo e o cordeiro tinham vindo impelidos pela sede. Mais acima, de pé, estava o lobo, e muito mais abaixo o cordeiro. Então o ladrão incitado pela goela ímproba apresentou a causa do litígio. “Por que”, diz, “fizeste turva a água, a mim que bebo?” O Lanígero, de outra parte, temendo perguntou: “Como posso fazer o que te queixas, ó lobo? O líquido decorre de ti para os meus goles”. Aquele repelido pelas forças da verdade disse: “Antes destes seis meses falaste mal de mim”. O cordeiro respondeu: “Na verdade, eu não tinha nascido”. Aquele disse, “Por Hércules! Teu pai falou mal de mim”; e assim dilacera o arrebatado com morte injusta."
"Em Santo Tirso, o director financeiro da Adalberto Estampados faz as contas e conclui que as perdas, em termos médios, estão a ser superiores aos ganhos, uma vez que a importação de algodão de fora da Europa tem um peso maior do que as vendas para fora do espaço europeu, onde recebe em dólares. Ou seja, "há um certo efeito compensatório, mas muitas vezes este encaixe não é perfeito porque as matérias-primas têm um efeito mais significativo", explica Carlos Oliveira. É que a maior estamparia do país e a terceira maior da Europa, onde trabalham 370 pessoas, factura 30 milhões de euros e exporta 60% da produção, mas não é, por excelência, uma exportadora para a área do dólar americano"
"Our business metaphors have historically been drawn largely from machinery and engineering, warfare and the military, and competitive sports and games. These remain apt in many ways - but in increasingly dynamic, collaborative, interdependent situations, they might mislead just as much as they inform.Trecho retirado de "Business ecosystems come of age " publicado por Deloitte University Press.
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Ecosystems thinking provides a new frame and mindset that captures a profound shift in the economy and the business landscape. The importance of relationships, partnerships, networks, alliances, and collaborations is obviously not novel - but it is growing. As it becomes increasingly possible for firms to deploy and activate assets they neither own nor control, to engage and mobilize larger and larger numbers of participants, and to facilitate much more complex coordination of their
expertise and activities, the art of the possible is expanding rapidly."
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Ecosystems are dynamic and co-evolving communities of diverse actors who create and capture new value through increasingly sophisticated models of both collaboration and competition."
"Sales reps are always looking for that next big opportunity and justifiably so. But while all new big opportunities initially look great – be cautious! All “bright shiny objects” aren’t good opportunities.Trechos retirados de "Pipeline management – not all business is good business"
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In major B2B sales it is critical early on to distinguish between an account that represents good and bad business.
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Wasting time and money chasing bad business is like salt in the wound.
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Yet, why might a significant opportunity in fact be a bad piece of business? Well, it could be a bad opportunity for a number of reasons related to the opportunity but in major sales most reasons relate back to a common factor: the initial customer specifications are vague or ill conceived.
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The core problem is poor specifications often lead to troubles during the project implementation requiring more of your resources then planned or demanding skill sets that are outside your power swing. Consequently you end up with less profit then anticipated or in the worse cases loses and perhaps a lack of resources to pursue other opportunities. This constitutes small problems in small opportunities but big problems in big opportunities."
"Em próximo postal voltarei a Favaro e à minha reflexão pessoal sobre a evolução da estratégia."Ainda não tinha lido "Terroir" de Seth Godin:
"Heinz ketchup has no terroir. It always tastes like everywhere and nowhere and the same. A Dijon mustard from a small producer in France, though, you can taste where it came from. Foodies seek out this distinction in handcrafted chocolate or wine or just about anything where the land and environment are thought to matter.Terroir é uma palavra que o meu pai me ensinou acerca dos vinhos e da sua diferenciação... é uma palavra que vai ficar a fazer parte do léxico deste blogue e do meu trabalho. O que eu pensava acerca das palavras de Favaro, reforçado com o texto de Godin é o que relato aqui "O meio pode albergar posições intermédias viáveis".
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But we can extend the idea to you, to your work, to the thing you're building.
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It's not like anyplace else. It's not like everyplace else.
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Consistent doesn't mean, "like everybody else."[Moi ici: Cá está o ponto que eu critico na Qualidade, a demasiada concentração na normalização] Consistent in this case means, "like yourself." If we took just one drop of your work and your reputation and the trail you leave behind, could we reconstruct the rest of it?
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The pressure on each of us to fit in, to industrialize, to be more like Heinz--it's huge. But to do so is to lose the essence of what we make."
