E, no fim, ganha a Alemanha

Ontem, no JdN, no artigo "Desvalorização do euro pode substituir queda dos salários?", podia ler-se:

"Alemanha é quem mais ganha?
O BCE estima que uma depreciação de 10% do euro, faz aumentar 0,4% o PIB da Zona Euro e 0,6% a inflação. Embora se antecipem ganhos para Portugal a partir deste movimento, há quem aponte que os principais beneficiários serão os grandes países, com a Alemanha à cabeça."

A Alemanha será a mais beneficiada mas não por ser grande.
.
Dolan e Simon em "Power Pricing" justificam de forma clara porque é que a Alemanha ganha mais com a desvalorização do euro, por causa da assimetria das gamas de preço:

"Many markets have a structure in which brands or products are aligned on a "value-map" of perceived product value vs. price as shown in Figure 4.4. This particular map shows three market tiers: economy, middle market, and premium.[Moi ici: Consideremos, por exemplo, o sector da maquinaria onde marcas alemãs e portuguesas concorrem. Normalmente, a marca alemã é mais cara, e compete no tier-premium. A marca portuguesa, mais barata, compete no tier-middle market]"

Normalmente, as marcas do tier-economy não competem directamente com as do tier-middle ou com as do tier premium. Normalmente, a competição ocorre dentro de cada tier.

"The appropriate number of tiers to utilize is situation specific. A two-tier (branded vs. nonbranded) separation is sometimes useful. ... Regardless of the number of tiers, the essential point is the same: one's chosen position on the "value-map" effectively implies a strategy and defines a relevant competitive set. ...

• competition within a price-tier is typically more vigorous than across tiers. 

• there is an asymmetry in competition across tiers. Price cuts by higher quality tiers are more powerful in pulling customers up from lower tiers, than lower tier price cuts are in pulling customers down from upper tiers; i.e., customers "trade up" more readily than they "trade down." 

Pictorially, we show this in Figure 4-5 for a two-tier market, which for simplicity we show as having two premium brands P1 and P2 and two economy brands E1 and E2. 

...

Figure 4-5 shows a "fence" separating the premium and economy tiers. The "fence" denotes the fact that a price cut by any brand typically impacts its same-tier competitors more strongly. ... A price cut by premium tier brand P1 draws to it economy tier buyers - who are able to slip through the spacing in the "picket fence" portion at the upper left end of the fence. That is, P1, has some clout in being able to induce customers from the economy tier to "trade up" to it. However, if E2 cuts price, the premium brand buyers conceptually crash into the solid portion of the fence on the lower right, without trading down to the economy segment. E2's price cut can increase its sales volume - by drawing El customers or increasing the category consumption rate - but it will not draw many customers away from the premium brands."

Assim, facilmente se percebe porque é que a Alemanha ganha mais, porque tem mais marcas premium.