Prepare-se!

Estou a escrever estas linhas antes de sair para uma caminhada matinal arriscada, está a chover, onde vou ler um artigo que me enviaram ontem. A mensagem principal é: antecipe!

Antecipe a entrada no mundo digital, enquanto a sua sobrevivência é assegurada pelo retalho tradicional.

Nos últimas semanas já devo ter lido mais de 10 títulos onde a palavra recessão aparece. E isso já é um indicador avançado de algo. Quem me conhece sabe que vaticino um 2020 doloroso economicamente, sobretudo para quem vive do mercado interno.

2019 vai ser penoso para o PS, 2020 vai ser penoso para os portugueses https://t.co/LOvSUOMnAG

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 3, 2019

Fundamental a vitória do PS em 2019, para ter de lidar com recessão europeia e lixo debaixo do tapete em 2020 https://t.co/CZaCzetU81 já comprei as pipocas

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) October 7, 2018

Por isso, recomendo aos empresários das PMEs que leiam todos os artigos que possam encontrar sobre esta temática "How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward".

Façam como as vacas, leiam e ruminem sobre a coisa. Ruminem para destilar o que será relevante para o caso de cada um. Alguns tópicos:

"during the recessions of 1980, 1990, and 2000, 17% of the 4,700 public companies they studied fared particularly badly: They went bankrupt, went private, or were acquired. But just as striking, 9% of the companies didn’t simply recover in the three years after a recession—they flourished, outperforming competitors by at least 10% in sales and profits growth. A more recent analysis by Bain using data from the Great Recession reinforced that finding. The top 10% of companies in Bain’s analysis saw their earnings climb steadily throughout the period and continue to rise afterward. A third study, by McKinsey, found similar results.
.
The difference maker was preparation. Among the companies that stagnated in the aftermath of the Great Recession, “few made contingency plans or thought through alternative scenarios,” according to the Bain report. “When the downturn hit, they switched to survival mode, making deep cuts and reacting defensively.” Many of the companies that merely limp through a recession are slower to recover and never really catch up.
.
Decentralized firms were better able to adjust to changing conditions.
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How should a company prepare in advance of a recession and what moves should it make when one hits? Research and case studies examining the Great Recession shed light on those questions. In some cases, they cement conventional wisdom; in others, they challenge it. Some of the most interesting findings deal with four areas: debt, decision making, workforce management, and digital transformation. The underlying message across all areas is that recessions are a high-pressure exercise in change management, and to navigate one successfully, a company needs to be flexible and ready to adjust."

Countering commoditization begins with ... (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O quadrante "Core" é o ponto de partida para muitos dos desafios em que acompanho as PMEs. 

"Core This quadrant, low on both value-adding dimensions, is a starting point where the offer lacks sufficient differentiation to avoid becoming a commodity. Customers do not perceive compelling differences between the firm and its rivals in their value propositions. What is offered is not sufficiently adapted to the specific requirements of individual customers or their segments, nor does it have an added ‘bundled’ value besides the core product. Under this scenario the firm is obliged to look beyond its core for the missing differentiation that comes with added value."

As hipóteses são:

"Targeted Extension This quadrant represents a strategy that aims to add value by extending its core offer to more closely meet the special and possibly unique needs of the market segments or even the individual accounts it serves.
...
System Development Firms choosing to compete in this quadrant develop a package of products and services that offer the synergistic benefits of a ‘system’.
...
Solutions Innovation What happens when the firm’s offer consists of a full set of bundled products and services that are specifically targeted at certain customer segments or individual accounts?"

A figura que se segue ilustra com o exemplo da SKF:

 Interessante como o quadrante das Total solutions = Solutions Innovation é um exemplo perfeito da máxima "Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs". Não vendem rolamentos, vendem os resultados que os clientes procuram. Os rolamentos foram um instrumento inicial para o arranque da conversa.

Cuidado com esta gente à frente de empresas

Escrevo sobre o eficientismo há muitos anos:

• A crença louca na eficiência, quando se lida com gente - com links de 2012
• Cuidado com a eficiência - Dezembro de 2017
• Eficácia, eficiência, e produtividade - com links de 2008
• Para lá da eficiência - Junho de 2017

E sobretudo, "aposta noutro mindset", de Julho de 2015 de onde retiro:

Agora leiam:

• Why Anxious Customers Prefer Human Customer Service
• Unlocking the Creative Value of Inefficiency
• The Efficiency Delusion

Cuidado com esta gente à frente de empresas que não podem competir pelo preço...

Curiosidade do dia

"É esta capacidade para interiorizar o exterior que decide o lugar de Portugal no mundo e é a comparação com os resultados que os outros conseguem que denuncia a mistificação das políticas internas que rejeitam a moderação racional, função dos resultados, para impor a polarização emocional, função das identidades."

Trecho retirado de "Polarização e moderação"

Countering commoditization begins with ... (parte II)

Parte I.

O desafio da Parte I é um desafio que muitas vezes está na base dos meus projectos nas PME:

"So what are the strategies that could possibly counter the commoditization scenario cited above? To begin, there are no quick fixes to the pervasive power of commoditization. As a permanent feature of today’s marketplace, it will continue to challenge business organizations, even the best managed."

Os trechos que se seguem, retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani, encheram-me as medidas:

"Though there is no panacea, we can nevertheless identify three possible strategic trajectories that can bring much-needed differentiation to a commoditized core. These generic strategies are highlighted in the ‘value space’ of Figure 3.2 and are further explained below.

...
By moving to the right along the horizontal axis the firm is increasingly segmenting its current and potential customers and, in doing so, customizing its offers around the particular needs of those segments.
...
By moving up on the vertical axis, on the other hand, a firm is augmenting its value proposition beyond its core product, by ‘bundling’ related or even unrelated products and services into a single offer. In other words, there is more to the offer than the commoditized core product, thereby allowing greater differentiation.
...
examples of bundling include add-on services accompanying the core product such as financing, technical support and a general warranty for the total offer. The extra customer value that comes with bundling can be measured in the greater speed and convenience of working with a single supplier, a lower transaction cost and a more complete quality assurance for the augmented offer.
The two value-adding dimensions described above lead to four possible combinations identified in Figure 3.2 as the Core and three value-adding strategies: Targeted Extension, System Development and Solutions Innovation."

 

Nem quando a maré sobe ela sobe para todos

No mesmo dia, com minutos de diferença, o Twitter apresenta-me:

• Órbita perde pedal em Lisboa e cai num buraco negro
• 100 Million Extra E-Bike Purchases By 2030, Graphs NGO Using 2018's Stellar EU Sales Figures

Às vezes nem quando a maré sobe ela sobe para todos.

speed = value

Às vezes estou a ler um texto e não consigo deixar de exclamar:

- DUH!

Desta vez foi com "Fashion Needs a New Business Model. Speed is the Answer":

"call out the conventional supply chain model as “dead.” The same report downgraded Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH for the first time in eight years. Although Calvin Klein sales increased by $876 million since 2013, profit declined over that period by $20 million. PVH’s inventory turns hit all-time lows, while total inventory hit all-time highs. Sales growth based on higher inventory risk, the analysts argued, is no longer acceptable.
...
As an alternative, they offered a new thesis: speed = value. Cowen demonstrates that even modest change in speed equates to gross margin improvement, a model which can be projected across the sector and to clothing and accessories.
...
Supply chains must move faster if they are to be more responsive to accelerating changes in demand. More important than cutting weeks of time out of the design-to-delivery calendar is building a link between retail supply flexibility and market value. Citing work by Warren H. Hausman of Stanford University, the critical metric is capital based on process innovation that reduces finished goods’ lead times from months to weeks.
The source of being fast is supply flexibility in the first mile of the supply chain, in contrast to last mile logistics. This means upstream management to delay – or postpone -- finished goods commitments. The impact of this strategy is to reduce or remove fashion uncertainty and exploit much shorter working capital cycles.
...
Speed, in summary, is not an operational challenge in sourcing alone. It is a firm-wide cultural commitment to speed decision-making, to be responsive to trends and to synchronise and share value across partners."

Recordo:

• Janeiro de 2007 - Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade 
• Dezembro de 2009 - Aproveitar as nossas armas
• Fevereiro de 2012 - Cadeias de fornecimento mais curtas
• Março de 2012 - Hora da batota?

Preço e contexto no dia-a-dia

Li o título, "Senhorios sobem rendas para trabalho sexual de prostitutas", e sorri ao reconhecer o contextual pricing, ao pensar na evolução do value-in-exchange para o value-in-use, ao pensar que o preço não é baseado no custo, mas no valor co-criado pelo cliente.

"value is always co-created in markets because value is phenomenologically derived and determined by a service beneficiary (e.g., customer) through the use of a market offering. This view on value differs from traditional economic measures of value. In particular, Vargo et al. (2008) discuss two measures of value that have been deliberated since the time of Aristotle – value-in-exchange and value-in-use. Whereas value-in-exchange represents the nominal amount for which something can be exchanged, value-in-use represents the value derived through integration and use, or application, of an available resource. Vargo et al. (2008) point toward the need for conceptualizing “value-in-context,” which they propose as an extension of value-in-use because it centers on value derived through use, but influenced by a particular context (e.g., time, place and social setting). In this way, value is always contextual because it is based on a phenomenological perspective and influenced by time, place and social surroundings, as well as other environmental factors, including access to other internal and external resources."

Trecho lido em mais uma caminhada matinal em "The context of experience", Journal of Service Management, Vol. 26 Iss 2 de Melissa Archpru Akaka, Stephen L Vargo e Hope Jensen Schau.

Countering commoditization begins with ...

"Figure 3.1 shows a typical scenario of how the combined effects of commod- itization and buyer concentration, common in many industrial sectors, can over time lead to margin erosion. It begins with a steady decline in the differentiation of the core offer. In other words, the firm’s customer-value proposition begins to lose its uniqueness and, with it, most or all of its differentiating power. Customers view all competing products alike and dismiss any vendor claims to the contrary. When combined with buyer concentration, i.e. when a growing share of sales is generated from a declining number of large customers, the consequences of commoditization can be dramatic: a loss of control on prices (when the seller is no longer a price setter but a price taker), in addition to losses in supplier identity, customer loyalty and brand equity. The scenario’s negative impact on margins and profitability is all too predictable.
.
Countering commoditization begins with a re-examining of the core business and its customer-value proposition. When all customers appear to look alike and the firm’s value offer has a one-size-fits-all quality to it (both features of many commoditized markets), it is time to ask a couple of fundamental questions: beyond the lowest price, what do the customers really value and how could the commoditized offer, product or service, be redefined to better reflect the often unarticulated needs of its customers?"

Trechos retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani

"The ever-changing store" (parte II)

"The vast majority of leaders I meet believe that their job is to ensure perfect execution. Mistakes are verboten. Failure is unacceptable. And so we use our considerable experience (and energy) to run our teams like well-oiled machines. There’s only one problem: they are not machines. They are complex, adaptive systems—human systems—in an age of rapid change. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By making ourselves indispensable, we make our teams and organizations less resilient. In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning. And that requires letting go. Of course, clients often respond that they can’t trust their teams to make decisions and take action. I remind them that one of two things is true: either they’re wrong and their teams are capable of far more than they realize, or they’re right and they need to make an immediate change. What is not okay is to linger in a state of distrust and second-guessing."

Em linha completa com a Parte I.

Acrescentar também "Unleashing the power of small, independent teams"

Trecho retirado de “Brave New Work” de Aaron Dignan.

"The ever-changing store"

Este artigo, "The ever-changing store: Taking an agile, customer-centric approach to format redesign", é muito mais do que um artigo sobre a evolução do retalho. É também um artigo sobre Mongo, um artigo sobre como organizações habituadas a uma sede central que tudo decide não estão preparadas para um mundo que requer tentativa e erro, um mundo que requer "think beta, not best".

"many retailers still only refresh their store formats in three- to five-year cycles. That’s an eternity in today’s world, where consumer demands and behavior are changing rapidly. Furthermore, traditional format redesign is a costly, multiyear effort that involves overhauling several departments or even the entire store. It carries significant risk, because retailers have no guarantee that the redesign, once it’s complete, will generate the desired results. It could turn out to be a tremendous waste of time and money."

A falta de fogo no rabo

"Wthout focus a company cannot achieve an execution culture. As mentioned previously, unfocused companies pursue too many objectives and have too many initiative. During the workshops conducted with senior managers, I asked them to list their company's top three objectives. There was never unanimous agreement. If top management is not dear about the initiatives on which to focus the company's efforts, then staff will never know where to invest their time. ... the greater the number of strategic objectives and priorities, the more unfocused are the employee. Alternatively, the more focused is top management, the clearer employees and departments are about what they need to do on a daily basis. When priorities cascade down the organization, the result is often a distorted focus — and frequently a significant distortion.
...
Another significant consequence is that lack of focus leads to lack of discipline in executing organizational objective. Focus imposes discipline because staff at any level know what to do at any point.
...
A final sign related to lack of focus and execution culture is when companies brainstorm the same ideas again and again."

Um dos temas que há muitos anos me apoquenta, ao lidar com as iniciativas estratégicas... a falta de foco, a falta de fogo no rabo, iniciativas que se arrastam no tempo, iniciativas que não têm qualquer prioridade sobre a gestão corrente do dia-a-dia:

• Fogo no rabo (Dezembro de 2016)
• Schwerpunkt (Janeiro de 2008)

Trechos retirados de "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution". 

"In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning"

“The vast majority of leaders I meet believe that their job is to ensure perfect execution. Mistakes are verboten. Failure is unacceptable. And so we use our considerable experience (and energy) to run our teams like well-oiled machines. There’s only one problem: they are not machines. They are complex, adaptive systems—human systems—in an age of rapid change. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By making ourselves indispensable, we make our teams and organizations less resilient. In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning. And that requires letting go. Of course, clients often respond that they can’t trust their teams to make decisions and take action. I remind them that one of two things is true: either they’re wrong and their teams are capable of far more than they realize, or they’re right and they need to make an immediate change. What is not okay is to linger in a state of distrust and second-guessing."

Trechos retirados de “Brave New Work” de Aaron Dignan.

O que dizem e o que fazem

O amigo @pauloperes mandou-me este artigo "Why did Shoes of Prey fail? Because it listened to customers":

"Shoe retailer Shoes of Prey toppled over like Bambi in heels last week. And no wonder, because according to chief executive officer Michael Fox, the founders trusted what their customers told them.
.
In outlining the reasons Shoes of Prey failed, Fox pointed to a yawning gap between customer intent and actual behaviour: “While our mass market customer told us they wanted to customise …what they were consciously telling us and what they subconsciously wanted … were effectively polar opposites.”"

O artigo fez-me recordar vários postais ao longo dos anos sobre o tema:

• You can’t ask customers what they want (Junho de 2016)
• Acerca da medição da satisfação dos clientes e A merecer reflexão (Outubro de 2016) 
• "Many companies fall into the trap of asking consumers" (Dezembro de 2016)
• "don't put their money where their mouth is" (Fevereiro de 2017)

"Poorly executed strategy"

"the fundamental difference between success and failure depends on which projects top management decides to invest in and how those projects are executed.
.
In other words, finding ways to achieve the strategic goals is what today is known as 'strategic planning,' while 'strategy execution' is the method used to achieve those goals. The three most important elements of successful strategy execution are:

• Identifying the company's core competencies that will differentiate it from the competition.

• Selecting and prioritizing the initiatives that will exploit those core competencies and create sustainable growth via the company's strategic plan.

• Organizing company resources so as to optimally execute the chosen strategy. 

...
Once a company's structure and resources are aligned to its chosen strategy, the key question is whether the organization is focused enough to deliver the intended result. If the answer is no chances are that the strategy will not be successfully executed. This will be discussed later, but successful strategy execution is not so much about how well the strategy is defined; instead, success depends on project selection, effective organizational alignment, relentless execution and focus.
...
Being unfocused means that strategy objectives have not been clearly articulated or communicated to the entire organization. Often, there are too many objectives or even worse, the objectives are not prioritized. Top management wants to do too many things and does not involve employees in the strategy formulation. Thus, employees neither understand nor buy into the long-term mission.
...
If the strategy is poorly executed, the financial objectives will be difficult to achieve. Unfocused companies typically generate significant costs over the years. They often run too many projects, not recognizing that projects are expensive and consume both financial and staff resources. In addition, they frequently lack a clear, transparent and objective project selection process (or investment committee). Investment decisions are made on partial information and the tendency is to start all projects whose business case 'looks good on paper."

Trechos retirados de "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution".

Curiosidade do dia

Muitas vezes recuo a 2007 e a este título “Nós não estudámos até ao fim todas as consequências das medidas que sugerimos”

Recomendo a leitura de "O mal de Mao":

"Lembro-me frequentemente desta história pela sua eloquência na ilustração de como decisões, quiçá bem-intencionadas, podem produzir efeitos devastadores e até contrários ao propósito que as motivam, quando não se estudam bem os problemas e todas as relações envolvidas, quando não se consideram todos os efeitos directos e indirectos. E espero que quem está encarregado de pensar políticas públicas não a ignore."

Markeplaces (parte II)

Parte I.

"“Todo o nosso investimento, nos próximos dois anos, vai centrar-se no digital. Este é um setor muito dinâmico, onde têm aparecido imensas marcas novas que, graças aos marketplaces ou às redes sociais, facilmente se dão a conhecer ao mundo”
...
“Os mercados onde somos mais fortes são aqueles que fizemos há 20 anos, pelos meios tradicionais, e onde contamos com clientes fiéis. Mas queremos dar-nos a conhecer a outros mercados pela via digital, o que obriga a investir milhões para se aparecer nos motores de busca. As grandes plataformas globais é que o conseguem”, explica.
...
Internacionalizar a marca com lojas fora de Portugal não está no horizonte. “Aprendemos que a gestão de lojas fora de Portugal é muito complicado, a não ser que se tenha um parceiro local”, diz Luís Figueiredo, que pretende, sim, reforçar o investimento na participação em feiras fora da Europa."

Trechos retirados de "Laranjinha prepara entrada na Amazon a partir de 2020"

As iniciativas estratégicas que não são estratégicas...

Actualmente ando a ler vários livros em simultâneo, qual deles o melhor. Um desses livre é "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution".

Recentemente num projecto BSC, para subir na escala de valor, optou-se por desenvolver a relação com o cliente do cliente, algo deste tipo:

Desenhou-se o mapa da estratégia, fez a S-CRT e desenvolveram-se quatro iniciativas estratégicas. No entanto, todas as quatro iniciativas estratégicas tinham a ver com a melhoria do negócio existente:

• Melhoria de competências em funções críticas;
• Simplificação de processos críticos;
• Melhoria do planeamento;
• Melhoria da comunicação interdepartamental.

Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez escreve:

"I have developed a matrix that illustrates this situation (Figure 4.2). The x-axis refers to the dimension of the business, either run-the-business or change-the-business. The y-axis represents both the front/core activities of the business and the support activities. For simplicity, I assume that most of the strategic growth projects are launched by the front side of the business — which is not too far from reality if we consider that research and development (R&D), business development, marketing and corporate are the departments that launch most of these growth initiatives — while the functions are more involved in cost-reduction projects (including performance improvement and system automation). Management has to make sure that the distribution of its resources is totally aligned and reflects the strategic objectives, in which case the chances are high that the strategy will be successful."

Interessante que todos as quatro iniciativas da empresa caem no quadrante inferior esquerdo... ou seja, as iniciativas estratégicas ainda que relevantes não são verdadeiramente estratégicas uma vez que são apenas "run-the-business".

São necessárias? Quase de certeza que sim, mas não criam o negócio de amanhã. E como os recursos são escassos, a começar pelo tempo... talvez a realidade seja:

No, you can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you find
You get what you need

Marketplaces

Quem tem mais a perder com a fuga de informação e o seu uso indevido, a Amazon ou a AT? E isto ainda está para implementação.

A propósito de "Selling with the enemy: Why rival retailers embrace Amazon.com". Vender no canal digital não se resume a montar uma loja online e começar a vender...

• por que é que alguém há-de chegar a essa loja online?
• por que é que alguém há-de arriscar dar o seu cartão de crédito a desconhecidos?

As marcas vendiam através de lojas físicas que não lhes pertenciam. Agora, as marcas também podem, e se calhar devem, vender através de lojas online (marketplaces) que não lhes pertencem. Esses marketplaces têm a obrigação de ser geridos por especialistas, por profissionais. Esses marketplaces têm asseguradas muito mais visitas e têm assegurada muito mais confiança na partilha dos dados de pagamento e garantias de serviço após-venda.

Quanto aos receios de cópia da Amazon e acesso à informação, penso nesta frase:

"And thus we close with a paradox: In the future, brand will no longer matter — except when it does. If a product’s story is compelling enough to truly differentiate, then that story will continue to resonate. If it doesn’t, it won’t."

Se as marcas não se diferenciarem, se não fizerem o seu trabalho de interacção com os seus clientes, com a sua tribo, acabarão terraplenadas pela Amazon ou por outras marcas.

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI e parte XII. 

"for many of today’s industrial vendors the ability to create value is less than matched by the power to capture it, because in commoditized markets the customer is the driver in an unbalanced distribution of bargaining power. The consequences for suppliers can be serious: declining prices and margins, inferior returns on investment, and the risk of falling into a ‘commodity trap’ where the pressure on profitability leads to reduced investment in product (or service) innovation, which in turn leads to further loss of differentiation and even greater pressure on prices and margins. Few marketers can escape this vicious cycle with their shirts on.
.
Can industrial companies counter commoditization and avoid falling victim to their ever more powerful, hard-bargaining customers?.
The answer for a growing number of companies is an affirmative one. These firms have learned that while core product advantages erode and pressure on prices never lets up, they can still do profitable business by pursuing value-added strategies including aligning themselves with key customers. Put differently, these companies have discovered profitable opportunities in stretching beyond their core products by offering customers compellingly differentiated values. They have thus successfully countered commoditization.
...
Consider the following examples.

• SKF, the world’s largest ball-bearing manufacturer, ... to maintain their production machinery, reduce or eliminate downtime and maximize plant yield.

• ...

• Raisio Chemicals, a major supplier of chemical compounds ... developing new products, upgrading paper quality and improving printability. The company offers its important customers access to its technical staff and facilities, including a unique pilot coating machine and a newly built printing plant, for testing and experimentation."

Dois exemplos da concentração nos inputs e não nos outputs.

Trechos retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani