Acerca dos números do emprego

Acerca destes números "Admirados".
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Uma explicação possível pode estar no ilusionismo estatístico.
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Os agricultores foram obrigados a burocracias como declarar o início da actividade. Será que ao declarar o início da actividade, como passam a trabalhadores por conta própria, passam à categoria de trabalhadores não remunerados e tornam-se invisíveis? Será que os que não declararam o início da actividade, quando questionados pelo INE, respondem que deixaram a actividade, com medo de cruzamento de informação?
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Recordar "Estou sempre a aprender" e relacionar com "Where Are All the Self-Employed Workers?"

“I don’t think they’re missing people who are working; they’re just categorizing them using methods they developed in 1950. Changing that survey takes an act of God, because it messes up all the time series.”

Acerca do ecossistema da procura

Recordei esta história "Arquitecto de paisagens competitivas (parte II)" depois de ler:

"The transition from linear value chain thinking towards collaborative value network thinking renders firm boundaries increasingly permeable, fuzzy and fleeting. All market actors can be viewed as open systems, ‘effectively depending on the resources of others to survive’. This interdependence creates a need for specific exchange and interaction processes  aimed at integrating an actor’s own resources with the resources of other actors,
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The idea of value co-creation in a network includes the idea of reciprocity, that is not only should one be freed from a dyadic perspective, (Moi ici: Deixar de pensar só nos clientes, naqueles que pagam as facturas e alargar o alcance do radar e, perceber que outros, na sua busca e sem ser preciso corrompê-los, podem influenciar os cientes) but also from the provider–customer notion. We take an actor-to-actor perspective and mainly use the term ‘actor’ as a generic construct of all resource integrators, and ‘focal actor’ for the actor that is designing a business model for value co-creation. (Moi ici: Estes são os meus clientes-alvo ideais, actores (empresas) que já perceberam que não chega a relação "1 para 1" e é preciso trabalhar ao nível sistémico, ao nível de um modelo de negócio)
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The relevant actors to include in the analysis vary based on the specific co-creation type the focal actor is aiming for. ... identify a spectrum of co-creation, involving co-conception, co-design, co-production, co-promotion, co-pricing, co-distribution, co-consumption, co-maintenance, co-disposal and co-outsourcing. All of these forms of value co-creation will require different resource configurations amongst various actors.
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The evolution from value created and distributed by the manufacturing firm to value co-created in a network poses focal managerial challenges: How can the focal firm engage customers and other actors in purposeful co-creation?"

Há dias, no Twitter, discutia-se: de que vale um produto excepcional sem o acesso à prateleira, sem a capacidade de comunicar com os utilizadores:

"the evolution of customers from ‘passive audiences’ to ‘active players’. Firms do not exist in order to distribute value along a value chain, but rather to support customers in their value-creating processes. Thus, customers are not to be viewed as extensions of firms’ production processes. Rather, firms need to be viewed as extensions of customers’ value-creating processes."

Trechos retirados de "Designing Business Models for Value Co-Creation" de Kaj Storbacka, Pennie Frow, Suvi Nenonen and Adrian Payne.

Admirados

O texto desta notícia "Agricultura perdeu 53 mil trabalhadores em 2013" tem um trecho delicioso:

"Os dados divulgados causaram admiração nos representantes do sector contactados pelo DN."

Ilustra como os ditos representantes estão divorciados da realidade, estão longe das bases.
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Como conjugar esta fotografia da realidade tirada pelo INE com a fotografia da realidade tirada pelo governo no passado mês de Dezembro:

"Nos últimos anos tem-se registado a criação de emprego no mundo agrícola, hoje são 280 os novos empresário agrícolas que se instalam mensalmente em Portugal,"

Curiosidade do dia

"Português cria segundo maior site do mundo de venda online de artigos de luxo"

"É português o fundador do segundo maior site do mundo dedicado às vendas online de artigos de luxo. No ano passado faturou 140 milhões de euros, e este ano deverá ter um aumento de 70 por cento."

Sexo, jardineiros, intervencionistas, Taleb e Cavaco Silva (parte II)

Parte I.
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Esta manhã, durante os meus 16 km de jogging debaixo de chuva, ouvi o capítulo 3 de "The Red Quenn - Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature" de Matt Ridley.
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A certa altura oiço:

"sex and dispersal often seem to be linked. Thus, grass grows asexual runners to propagate locally but commits its sexually produced seeds to the wind to travel farther. Sexual aphids grow wings; asexual ones do not: The suggestion that immediately follows is that if your young are going to have to travel abroad, then it is better that they vary because abroad may not be like home.'
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Aphids multiply during the summer on a rosebush, and monogonont rotifers multiply in a street puddle. But when the summer comes to an end, the last generation of aphids or of monogonont rotifers is entirely sexual: It produces males and females that seek each other out, mate, and produce tough little young that spend the winter or the drought as hardened cysts awaiting the return of better conditions. To Williams this looked like the operation of his lottery. While conditions were favorable and predictable, it paid to reproduce as fast as possible—asexually. When the little world came to an end and the next generation of aphid or rotifer faced the uncertainty of finding a new home or waited for the old one to reappear, then it paid to produce a variety of different young in the hope that one would prove ideal."

E a minha mente voou para o paralelismo com a economia... e recordei por um lado a poesia de Hamel e Valikangas sobre a resiliência da vida na Terra e, por outro, os crentes no Grande Planeador.
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Depois, Nassim Taleb veio juntar-se à festa, foi ao sexto km, com a humildade por detrás da "via negativa"... os intervencionistas, quase sempre cheios de boa vontade, querem intervir para "ajudar" as empresas a fazerem face a uma qualquer evolução desfavorável.
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Interessante como os afídeos perante a alteração das condições, deixam de confiar na replicação dos seus genes e apostam no sexo, para criar novas combinações de genes que talvez possam enfrentar melhor o futuro.
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Os intervencionistas que intervêm, os que decidem o que salvar e o que condenar são os mesmos que não sabem fazer as contas para um simples concurso público.
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Depois dos jardineiros, lembrei-me logo da intervenção de Cavaco... outro intervencionista.

Sexo, jardineiros, intervencionistas, Taleb e Cavaco Silva (parte I)

A propósito desta história "Manutenção dos espaços verdes do Parque das Nações vai ser feita por 16 jardineiros, antes eram 70".
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Impressionou-me, por um lado a incapacidade de gente, que lida com tantos milhões de euros impostados aos contribuintes, para fazer contas básicas e, sobretudo a dúvida. Por que é que o cliente se preocupa a impor requisitos acerca do número de jardineiros que vão manter o espaço? Não era mais adequado e mais próximo do que se deseja, impor requisitos acerca do resultado do trabalho dos jardineiros?
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Voltei a recordar esta história ontem, ao ler num jornal o desejo do presidente:

"Cavado Silva afirmou ainda que «Portugal deve continuar a apostar na educação, no conhecimento e na inovação para que deixemos de ser um país que exporta acima de tudo produtos de baixa ou média tecnologia e passemos a exportar produtos de média e alta tecnologia e isso exige a continuação dos investimentos na área da I&D»."

O presidente coloca mal o desafio, a Qimonda cumpria o desejo do presidente e, no entanto, era um buraco financeiro insustentável. O desafio não deve ser exportar produtos de médio e alta tecnologia, mais uma vez concentramos-nos no processo e não nos resultados. O desafio, em minha opinião, deve ser apostar em produtos e serviços de mais alto valor acrescentado, sejam eles de baixa ou alta tecnologia, só o alto valor acrescentado permite a melhoria de vida das pessoas.
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O presidente coloca o desafio desta maneira porque, como muitos, acha que existem sectores económicos condenados.
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Continua.

Não deixe a sua empresa ser apanhada na curva

"What business are you in?  It seems like a straightforward question, and one that should take no time to answer.  But the truth is that most company leaders are too narrow in defining their competitive landscape or market space.  They fail to see the potential for “non-traditional” competitors, and therefore often misperceive their basic business definition and future market space."

O mesmo tema do artigo que Theodore Levitt escreveu em 1960, "Marketing Myopia"?

"Getting your business definition and competitor set right requires two things: first, an understanding of who your customer is, and second, an honest view of both the high level and detailed use-case problem you are solving for them.
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Today, that kind of world-changing innovation seems to be happening faster and faster.  New megatrends are fundamentally altering market dynamics and business definitions.  These trends include the share economy, crowdsourcing, the mobile and tablet revolution, Big Data, and what I sense will be perhaps the most disruptive of all to business definitions — the Internet of things."

Daí ser fundamental pensar:

"So the critical question for businesses to ask — more now than ever — is not what business you are in today, but what business you should be in tomorrow." 

 Tanto fabricante de coisas que vai ser apanhado na curva por Mongo, por causa da redução de consumo promovida pela economia do aluguer e artilha, por causa da entrada do código nas coisas mais comezinhas, por causa do retorno do semi-industrial. (Ainda ontem à noite, no canal História, fiquei a pensar, ao ver o programa "Restauradores", no valor sentimental que as pessoas atribuem a algo que fez parte da sua vida, ou dos seus familiares, no passado. Em Mongo, porque não o mesmo tipo de envolvimento com algo que vai fazer parte da sua vida no futuro?)

Trechos retirados de "The First Strategic Question Every Business Must Ask"

"a means to solving a problem"

Actualmente, durante o jogging, ando a ouvir "The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature" de Matt Ridley. Este trecho fixou a minha atenção:

"It seems to treat evolution as some kind of imperative, as if evolving were what species exist to do - as if evolving were a goal imposed on existence.'
This is, of course, nonsense. Evolution is something that happens to organisms. It is a directionless process that sometimes makes an animal's descendants more complicated, sometimes simpler, and sometimes changes them not at all: We are so steeped in notions of progress and self-improvement that we find it strangely hard to accept this. But nobody has told the coelacanth, a fish that lives off Madagascar and looks exactly like its ancestors of 300 million years ago, that it has broken some law by not " evolving.
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Indeed, the coelacanth, far from being a flop, is rather a success: It has stayed the same—a design that persists without innovation, like a Volkswagen beetle. Evolving is not a goal but a means to solving a problem."

Aplicando esta pensamento à economia temos aquela frase de Nassim Taleb:

"Stress is information" 

 Se a cada recessão temos a intervenção keynesiana do Estado, para torrar uns milhões de euros a apoiar provisoriamente umas empresas, ou sectores escolhidos, os problemas para essas empresas são abafados, escondidos, temporariamente ... corta-se a motivação para a evolução.
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Fazendo o paralelismo com Kotter, a mudança não ocorre por causa de relatórios e razões muito racionais, a mudança ocorre por causa de se estar com uma espada contra a parede, ocorre por causa de uma "burning platfform", por causa do barco de madeira estar a arder em pleno oceano:

Curiosidade do dia

Mongo is everywhere!!!

"The company, founded in September 2012, offers people the opportunity to memorialize their loved ones with a custom design that highlights both that person's unique interests and personality. The creations (as you can see in gallery above) are what those in the real estate industry might delicately call "taste specific."
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each marker is created specifically according to the vision of the purchaser. While there's a catalog from which bereaved families can choose certain broad templates, customization is an important part of the idea, and Pineau makes it clear that that's a point of pride for the company. "We made about 100 monuments in the first year, and all of them are installed in .... We do not sell our products to be displayed in showrooms. We create unique works tailor-made for our customers."

Em que sector será? Um doce para quem adivinhar!!!
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Trecho retirado daqui.

O Eu.Criança

Durante os meus tempos ingénuos de fundação da Quercus, o Falco tinnunculus (peneireiro de dorso malhado ou francelho) era, para mim, uma espécie de pardal das aves de rapina, dado que era muito comum e fácil de identificar através da conjugação da cor e do peneirar.
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Com o tempo, deixei de os ver. Já não faço birdwatching como fazia, mas mesmo em sítios onde os costumava ver, deixei de os ver.

Hoje, 8 e pico da manhã, a entrar na A29 em Salreu, sou surpreendido por um exemplar, com aquele perfil inconfundível, a voar contra o vento forte.

Acerca da estratégia

Interessante, não sabia que esta constatação empírica "A biologia é um manancial de lições sobre a economia" e aqui repetida "É preciso estar sempre alerta", era conhecida e citada:

"David Packard once famously quipped, “More companies die from overeating than starvation.”"

Cuidado com tudo ser prioridade.

Trecho retirado daqui.

Válido para pessoas e para empresas

"The key is changing your frame to focus on your advantages, not your shortcomings.
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When you’re trying to understand your unique abilities, it helps to think about scarcity. What background or skills do you have that might be rare in a given context?
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To understand what’s so special about you, you have to compete on your playing field, not someone else’s. If you let others set the terms of the debate ... you will lose almost every time. There will always be someone who knows more than you do about a given topic, or who has more directly relevant experience.
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Instead, you have to seize the confidence to say their criteria are irrelevant (or at least less relevant), and there’s another yardstick that matters more. Too many professionals accept the limitations of other people’s viewpoints, and see themselves as falling short. When you understand what you possess that’s scarce, and are strong enough to make the case for yourself based on your own metrics, you’re likely to be far more persuasive than you ever imagined."

Trechos retirados de "Your Weakness May Be Your Competitive Advantage"

Material para a criação de cenários

Uma temática que costumamos abordar aqui, o futuro do emprego, o futuro dos carros, a economia da partilha e aluguer, e como tudo interage:

"For more than a century, big corporations existed because it was cheaper and more efficient to gather and own talent and the means of production in-house than it was to go out and find whatever you needed whenever you needed it. But today, networks and software are changing that.
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This fuels a movement toward smaller, lighter companies at the core, and the core is where people will have "jobs" - full-time gigs sitting alongside colleagues who all have similar full-time gigs. The cores will shrink, leaving fewer of these jobs. Instead, companies will outsource everything they can. (Moi ici: E, depois, alguém há-de interrogar-se, "Por que precisamos delas?")
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Jobs are being replaced by work. (Moi ici: E isto é algo que os "certificadores de competências", as universidades, vão ter de perceber que as pessoas vão precisar menos de canudos e diplomas e mais de conhecimento e aprendizagem contínua pragmática) Employees are being replaced by the talent cloud - an ephemeral place where micro-entrepreneurs and small groups of skilled people connect to the companies that need them.
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The sharing economy is the start of consumers outsourcing the assets they don't have to own. It is to consumers in the 2010s what "re-engineering" was to corporations in the 1990s: a way to slim down, spend smarter, and have more options.
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Cars are a perfect place to start. They are wildly expensive and, with the exception of minivans owned by suburban soccer moms with three kids, shamefully underutilized."

Trecho retirado de "Your Garage May Be the Next Target of 'Un-Scaling'"

Concentração e foco

"Jason Fried, an Inc. columnist and founder of 37signals, a Chicago-based software company, announced today that his company would begin focusing exclusively on one of its products, Basecamp, the popular project-management application. Not only that, the company will be changing its name and entire identity to reflect the new focus--Basecamp the product, Basecamp the company.
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Business has never been better, so it’s not as if this were some kind of forced retrenchment. Fried says he simply had a realization that quality and culture would likely suffer if the company continued to expand. So he did the exact opposite.
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What's wrong with continuing to grow into a larger company, with more employees? Most companies would be excited about the growth.JF: There's nothing inherently wrong with it, but it's at odds with our culture. We take being a small company very seriously. We absolutely love it. We think small companies have advantages that large companies simply cannot have." (1)

Recordar:

""When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, after having been ousted in 1984, he found a company with a sea of products—computers, peripheral products for computers, twelve different types of Macintosh. The company was floundering. His strategy was simple: focus. Instead of dozens of products, Apple would concentrate on just four: one computer and one laptop each for two markets, consumer and professional. Just as in his Zen practice, where recognizing you’ve become distracted helps you concentrate, he saw that “[deciding what not to do is as important as deciding what to do.”(2)

E ainda:

"Phase 1: When we really have clarity of purpose, it leads to success.
Phase 2: When we have success, it leads to more options and opportunities.
Phase 3: When we have increased options and opportunities, it leads to diffused efforts.
Phase 4: Diffused efforts undermine the very clarity that led to our success in the first place." (3)

(1) Trechos retirados de "Your Business Is Booming. Time to Change Course"
(2) Trecho retirado de "Focus - The Hidden Driver of Excellence" de Daniel Goleman
(3) Trecho retirado de "The Disciplined Pursuit of Less"

Curiosidade do dia

"Today [28 de Janeiro] may be a milestone in the 3D printing revolution: one of the key 3D printing patents related to Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) technology expires today.
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2014 will be an important year for 3D printing development. Another patent set to expire this year is the following: (Moi ici: E segue-se a lista)
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The technology behind all of these patents promises to be an incredible boon for the development of 3D printing.
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Thus, 2014 – and perhaps even today's date – may make the annals of 3D printing history."

Trechos retirados de "Let the revolution begin: key 3D printing patent expires today"

O que os keynesianos esquecem

Esta manhã troquei a ordem, assim, ouvi o noticiário da TSF às 8 da manhã. De repente, sou surpreendido com esta reportagem, "Carpintaria de Famalicão produziu nova loja do Barcelona em Camp Nou".
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Gostei, sobretudo de:

"«Mesmo durante a crise tivemos sempre muito trabalho porque nunca cedemos ao facilitismo de baixar a qualidade para fabricar barato."

O que os keynesianos esquecem é que o stress gerado por uma recessão é informação que motiva os agentes a procurarem alternativas:

"Desde que foi fundada, a CSJ ultrapassou a crise no setor da construção civil, virou-se para o mobiliário personalizado e à boleia do "boom" dos centros comerciais nos anos 90 apostou na decoração de lojas"

Com apoios e subsídios dificilmente haveria necessidade de mudar, de subir na escala de valor, de diversificar, de tentar algo novo.

Acerca de Mongo

"Additive-manufacturing technologies could alter the way companies add value to their products and services. The outsourcing of conventional manufacturing helped spur companies such as Nike to rely more on their design skills. Likewise, 3-D printing techniques could reduce the cost and complexity of other kinds of production and force companies to differentiate their products in other ways. These could include everything from making products more easily reparable (and thus longer lived) to creating personalized designs.
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Indeed, reducing the reliance on hard tooling (which facilitates the manufacture of thousands of identical items) creates an opportunity to offer customized or bespoke designs at lower cost—and to a far broader range of customers. The additive manufacture of individualized orthodontic braces is just one example of the potential of these technologies. As more such offerings become technically viable, companies will have to determine which are sufficiently appealing and commercially worthwhile. The combination of mass customization and new design possibilities will up the ante for many companies and could prove very disruptive to traditional players in some segments.
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Of course, retailers too could someday use fabs—for example, to let customers tailor products such as toys or building materials to suit their needs. That business model could represent a value-chain play for manufacturers if, for instance, they owned the machines, core designs, or both.
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Many benefits of 3-D printing could cut the cost of market entry for new players: for example, the use of the technology to lower tooling costs makes it cheaper to begin manufacturing, even at low volumes, or to serve niche segments. The direct manufacturing of end products greatly simplifies and reduces the work of a designer who would only have to take products from the computer screen to commercial viability. New businesses are already popping up to offer highly customized or collaboratively designed products. Others act as platforms for the manufacture and distribution of products designed and sold online by their customers. These businesses are gaining insights into consumer tastes and building relationships that established companies could struggle to match.
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Initially, these new competitors will be niche players, operating where consumers are willing to pay a premium for a bespoke design, complex geometry, or rapid delivery. Over the longer term, however, they could transform industries in unexpected ways, moving the source of competitive advantage away from the ability to manufacture in high volumes at low cost and toward other areas of the value chain, such as design or even the ownership of customer networks. Moreover, the availability of open-source designs for 3-D printed firearms shows how such technologies have the potential to create ethical and regulatory dilemmas and to disrupt industries."

Trechos retirados de "3-D printing takes shape"

Um exemplo português

Um exemplo português da economia da partilha, do aluguer, das tribos, de Mongo em "SlowFastCycles".
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Ainda este Domingo reparei, na Rua Costa Cabral, no Porto, por volta das 13h, um grupo de ciclistas à porta de uma loja de porta aberta que me parecia servir esta tribo.

Quem é este ministro?

Quem é este ministro?

Novos modelos de negócio e o poder do contexto

Há tempos ouvi falar de um "café", algures, que passou a cobrar o tempo de estadia em vez do café. Sinceramente não liguei muito, era uma curiosidade.
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Entretanto, na semana passada fui ao Porto e, a certa altura precisei de um espaço para trabalhar, para aceder à internet, para carregar o PC (também podia ser o ipad, ou o smartphone). Não precisava de uma bebida, precisava de um espaço. Normalmente o que faço, no Porto ou Lisboa, é recorrer a um McDonald's, ou ao Subway, como espaços de trabalho.
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Ontem, ao ler "Is it time to freshen up your business model?":

"We hear a lot about new business models these days, but so far the conversation has tended to centre on the hi-tech digital sector where new ways of doing things is part of the DNA.
Yet the importance of developing new business models should not just be confined to digital start-ups; it is something every business should be looking hard at.
The fact is that business models – the formula you use to make money – are not set in stone. We live in a fast-moving world, and changing customer needs and new technology mean what works brilliantly today may be a total dud by tomorrow.
Which means it is vital to ensure that your business model is still fit for purpose."

Fez-se um clique e comecei a ver a história sob um outro prisma.
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Lembram-se do conselho para a Comur?
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O pricing diz que o preço é contextual. Quando li sobre o tal "café" que se cobrava ao minuto, mentalmente comparei esse "café" com os cafés que conheço. Tal como comparar conservas de truta fumada com conservas de sardinha.
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Agora, ao recordar o episódio do Porto e ao relacioná-lo com o "café", coloquei-me num outro contexto, como comparar conservas de truta fumada com peixe fumado. Assim, comecei a comparar o "café" com o aluguer de espaços de trabalho, com o aluguer de salas de reunião, com o co-working básico e realizei que a proposta de valor era bem diferente: