"Os portugueses são dos que têm menos medo de falhar, empurrados, nomeadamente, pelo desemprego. Mas a taxa de mortalidade das empresas recém-criadas é das mais elevadas na União Europeia, atingindo os 70% a cinco anos."Agora encontro:
"“Os primeiros anos são fundamentais para a sobrevivência das startups”, refere a consultora num estudo onde analisou a evolução do empreendedorismo entre 2007 e 2015. Neste período, dois terços das novas empresas conseguiram ultrapassar o primeiro ano de vida; mais de metade (52%) atingiram o terceiro ano e só 41% chegaram ao quinto ano, a marca da passagem à vida adulta. No sétimo ano, apenas um terço das empresas mantinha atividade aberta."Este 41% que chegam ao 5º ano de vida são uma melhoria face aos 30% de 2013.
Where I explain that "large" projects rarely start as "large" projects, but fractally grown https://t.co/IpPbXU8Kz2— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) June 21, 2016
"I was at a venue where someone wanted to increase economic growth: "funding" and "investments" were mentioned every 240 characters.O outro link, "Why Companies Fail & How To Prevent It" de Osterwalder tem um trecho bem interessante também:
Now some empiricism. Consider that almost all tech companies "in the tails" were not started by "funding". Take companies you are familiar with: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook. These companies started with risk-taking. Funding came in small amounts, way later.
Now let us take the idea to its next logical step. The minute something called a "business plan" is created, the idea is corrupt and the BS start dominating. People start thinking in terms of other people's perception of the business, for "raising cash. Like prostitutes.
We can generalize to economic growth. The problem is that these discussions of "growth" are made by people who have never taken risks.[Moi ici: Vêm-me à memória de rajada, os nomes de Costa, Medina, Centeno e Caldeira que por estes dias andam entretidos a torrar dinheiro a brincar ás startups]
What is needed? 1) determination, 2) sophistication, 3) authenticity, 4) convexity and above all, 5) risk loving."[Moi ici: Na parte I elegi: 1e5paixão, 4experimentação, 2e3diferenciação e interacção]
"The reason why I point this out is because access to funding (in startups or established organizations) is often brought up as the key challenge in innovation or company building. However, The FRACTL study shows that money isn’t really the issue. In fact, the findings show that funded ventures (including those that raised $10 million USD or more) are more likely to run out of cash than bootstrapped ones. Why is that so? Because you are more likely to risk building something that nobody wants when you have the money to actually build it. Renowned venture capitalist Vinod Khosla famously argued that “people who raise more money reduce their probability of success”."[Moi ici: Relacionar com "Não será porque ..."]
"Pensava que as startups tinham de tentar seduzir clientes e descobrir modelos de negócio com base em MVP. Afinal não, basta aderir a estas plataformas de apoio..."
"Sempre que entrava numa loja da Osklen, Ana Costa tinha vontade de perder a cabeça. A designer, de 28 anos, confessa que queria comprar tudo."Depois, a experimentação:
"não tinha contactos de fábricas nem de fornecedores e, por isso, decidiu pôr-se no caminho e bater às portas de potenciais parceiros. Contactos feitos e, com um investimento de 28 mil euros (que entretanto já devolveu aos ‘investidores’), Ana desenhou a primeira coleção da +351, uma maneira tímida e cautelosa de se apresentar ao mercado. Mas, sobretudo, uma forma de testar o produto no público-alvo."Depois, a aposta na diferenciação:
"Por isso, no segundo ano, foi altura de arriscar: novos materiais, estampagens e os seus desafios favoritos: tingimentos. “Já havia tantas marcas de swimwear, eu não queria fazer mais uma. Queria escolher bem os materiais e os cortes para criar peças que vão durar, que são intemporais. Peças que pudesse usar sempre”, detalha."Depois, chegar ao consumidor (loja própria, loja multimarca, e online):
"“Abrir um ponto de venda próprio foi muito importante porque, em lojas multimarca, a marca perde identidade.”Assim, parece fácil. O dinheiro não é o mais importante: paixão e diferenciação são mais importantes.
.
O passo seguinte foi começar a procurar lojas multimarca onde vender o produto. Mas Ana percebeu que, mais fácil do que vender online ou noutras lojas, seria ter um espaço próprio, onde pudesse reunir o próprio espaço de criação e o contacto mais direto com os clientes."
"If you look at what’s happened in big cities around the U.S. in recent years, it’s easy to think we’re living in Startup Nation. Thanks to the plummeting cost and increased availability of digital tools, as well as greater access to early-stage funding, we’ve seen what the Economist has called a “Cambrian moment,” with digital startups “bubbling up in an astonishing variety of services and products.”Há dias, num dos episódios da série "Endeavour" no canal Fox Crime, um autista era excepcional a desenhar, a pintar, algo que tinha vista uma só vez. No final do episódio, num raro momento de exteriorização o autista confessava: "quem me dera saber criar, ser inovador" (e não um copiador, um recitador da realidade). Lembrei-me logo de algo que li em Gigerenzer "the art of focusing on what’s important and ignoring the rest", acerca de um russo que conseguia citar de memória o conteúdo da página 237 de um livro mas era incapaz de dizer o que queria dizer o que tinha acabado de citar.
...
Meanwhile, though, a host of economic researchers have been telling a much bleaker story: American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
...
According to the Commerce Department, the number of new businesses started by Americans has fallen sharply since 2000, and so too has the percentage of American workers working for companies that are less than a year old.
...
So has America lost its appetite for risk? Not really. It is true that the number of new businesses has fallen, but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
...
A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big. These businesses are run by “transformational” entrepreneurs
...
While Stern and Guzman show that high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did. As the researchers put it, “Even as the number of new ideas and potential for innovation is increasing, there seems to be a reduction in the ability of companies to scale in a meaningful and systematic way.” As many seeds as ever are being planted. But fewer trees are growing to the sky.
...
Stern and Guzman are agnostic about why this is happening. But one obvious answer suggests itself: the increased power of established incumbents. We may think that we have been living in a business world in which incumbents are always on the verge of being toppled and competitive advantage is more fragile than ever."
"If the primary element of the old economy was the industrial unit, today the Industrial Age is giving way to the Individual Age, where it is the skills, talents, and labors of people that matter most. Now our economic policies have to start catching up.
...
the traditional ways to look at the statistics radically undercount the role of entrepreneurs in the twenty-first century. While the jobs they create for others are counted, the jobs they create for themselves—often while their firms are unincorporated—are usually not. [Moi ici: É verdade, descobri isso no INE há uns anos, por isso gostava de seguir como indicador a evolução do número de pessoas que descontam para a Segurança Social em vez do número de empregos criados com base em inquéritos. Há mais de 20 anos que não faço parte das estatísticas como estando empregado] According to Lowrey, a total of 48 million new jobs had been created by startup firms between 1997 and 2008. The remarkable part was that while 17 million of those jobs were positions that entrepreneurs were creating for others, 31 million were jobs entrepreneurs had created for themselves. Lowrey put it starkly: “Business creation is job creation.”
...
The differences between the economy of the nineteenth century and that of the twenty-first are too many to list, but today, as in Jefferson’s time of independent farmers and shopkeepers, it is individuals, not large conglomerations, that propel the economy. The number of Americans working for themselves is growing rapidly and most Americans no longer work full-time for someone else. Yet it is not just the self-employed or entrepreneurs who are part of this new world. Every worker is grappling with the Individual Age."
"it’s probably time to re-examine the whole idea of exactly what a job is and whether or not the fundamental construct is even viable going forward.
.
Let’s just skip to the answer: Jobs aren’t a viable construct going forward."[Moi ici: Interessante o autor citar Coase quando ainda ontem pensei nele por causa das plataformas e da fricção]
"The new design patterns create new opportunities. It is not about having a fixed job role as an employee or having tasks given to you as a contractor. The most inspiring and energizing future of work may be in solving problems and spotting opportunities in creative interaction with your customers."
"In many cases, disrupted incumbents find themselves unable to transfer the new technologies into their mainstream operations because doing so requires them to fundamentally change the way they manufacture and distribute their products. In essence, the basic architecture of the product—how it is put together—changes along with customer expectations and preferences, creating “supply side” disruption.Um empreendedor aborda uma empresa estabelecida com uma nova tecnologia de fabrico que a empresa não conhece, não domina. É muito difícil convencer alguém a experimentar, a arriscar... afinal o status-quo está a resultar. Porquê mudar?
...
Though less commonly understood, supply-side disruption is arguably more dangerous than the kind Christensen describes; indeed, disruption of a product’s architecture threatens a company’s very survival in a way that changes in customer demands do not."
"Leaders of start-ups often see strategy, the pursuit of a clearly defined path that is systematically identified in advance, as the enemy of entrepreneurship, which requires ventures to be opportunistic and quickly shift course as they learn what customers want.Trechos retirados de "Lean Strategy"
.
Entrepreneurs badly need strategies that articulate what their ventures will and will not do. Such boundaries are crucial for making the most of scarce resources, deciding which ideas to pursue, and evaluating experiments. But a rigid, fixed strategy is dangerous.
...
Strategy and entrepreneurship are often viewed as polar opposites.
...
Strategy without entrepreneurship is central planning. Entrepreneurship without strategy leads to chaos.
...
What many entrepreneurs fail to grasp is that rather than suppressing entrepreneurial behavior, effective strategy encourages it - by identifying the bounds within which innovation and experimentation should take place.
...
In a resource-constrained venture, choices are mutually exclusive.
...
The single best piece of advice for entrepreneurs is this: Know what not to do.
...
Every choice is an irrevocable rejection of something else.
...
In a world governed by the principles discussed here, a strategy that articulates the firm’s overall direction is indispensable.
...
Strategy matters even more to entrepreneurs than to established businesses."
"In fact, creating new taxes seems to be a national sport in Brazil, where an average of 46 new rules are added to the tax code EACH DAY."
"A symptom of weak market definition is calling yourself as “a platform play,” as so many startups do: doing anything for everybody, without doing something truly important for someone specific.[Moi ici: Pensei logo nisto]
...
Picking one or two markets is one of the toughest bets a startup can make because by picking one market you’re giving up others.
...
Who wants to exclude potential customers?
.
To really solve a problem and build your company means making a tough choice.
...
So picking the right market — and ensuring you do get it right — should be at the top of your business launch to-do list."
"“I do think you’ll see some dead unicorns this year”Trechos retirados de "Negative Gross Margins"
...
“There are a considerable number of unicorns that will become extinct.”
...
The most likely scenario is the thing that has been driving growth (and valuations) for these companies ultimately comes home to roost. And that is negative gross margins.
...
And so most of the companies out there who are growing like weeds using a negative gross margin strategy are going to find that the capital markets will ultimately lose patience with this strategy and force them to get to positive gross margins, which will in turn cut into growth and what we will be left with is a ton of flatlined zero gross margin businesses carrying billion dollar plus valuations."
"One of its biggest problems was the crippling cost of customer acquisition.Trechos retirados de "Why Homejoy Failed — Backchannel"
...
The Obsession With Growth
Homejoy is far from being the lone example of a Silicon Valley startup to prioritize growth over revenue.
...
In retrospect, expanding too quickly into new markets proved to be a major challenge for Homejoy, and put the entire company at risk.
...
Moreover, by focusing on growth above all else, other projects to boost retention and reduce costs fell to the wayside."
"people tend to think that that has the entrepreneur who's gonna go start a high-tech company that's gonna blast off quickly and get acquired am here to tell you that there's a whole different side to be an entrepreneur which is just being a small businessperson"BTW, tudo para dar para o torto, mas eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província:
"Loss-making "ready to cook" meal delivery company HelloFresh is readying a Frankfurt stock market listing that looks to capitalize on its rapid global expansion, rising consumer demand for convenience and investor appetite for tech flotations.Trechos retirados de "Loss-making online meal delivery firm HelloFresh plans flotation"
...
HelloFresh also said revenue swelled 384 percent to 198 million euros in the first nine months of 2015, while losses rose to 58 million from 8.5 million a year before.
...
"In only four years, we have managed to disrupt the traditional food supply chain and build a global company," co-founder and CEO Dominik Richter said."
"It is no secret that we have been looking at various locations around Europe to support future growth and provide attendees with the best possible experience. We chose Lisbon because of the strong infrastructure in the city, the world-class venue and the thriving startup community.Dois pensamentos:
In 2015, Lisbon became the first city to receive the European Entrepreneurial Region award. Investors from across Europe have started looking to Lisbon to capitalise on the low rents and affordable IT talent. Dozens of Portuguese startups have exhibited at Web Summit and Codacy won Web Summit’s PITCH competition last year.
But don’t take my word for it: here is Mike Butcher of technology blog TechCrunch who knows what he is talking about when it comes to startup communities: “Lisbon is emerging as a genuinely new tech ecosystem in Europe, with Berlin-levels of cheapness but with Southern European weather.”"
"building 50+ hardware products a year as a startup is the modern-day version of gluing feathers to your arms and flying.
...
Quirky didn’t want to build one or two products a year (like most normal product companies), it set its sights on 20, 30, then 50+ products a year. The entire Quirky organism was designed for speed: ingesting thousands of ideas, selecting the best ones with a high-speed voting system, crafting beautiful marketing, and customizing end-caps at major retailers. But that’s where it stopped.
.
A good company builds one product, learns from its customers, and iterates to make that product exceptional. Each step in the process is designed to refine a product and find the often elusive “product/market fit” that is the basis for all successful startups.
...
Quirky never iterated on its products.
...
Quirky systematically broke the cardinal rule of startups: iterate rapidly to build a product people love.
...
Lack of product focus had a nasty side-effect. When you look across the Quirky product line, you’re left with one fundamental feeling: confusion.
Customers are left asking “what does Quirky stand for as a company?”E este trecho que se segue... devia ser motivo de reflexão para tantos que não ousam por falta de financiamento:
...
The Quirky brand can’t be everything to all people but it was trying to.
.
Quirky was competing on all levels with all brands in every product category. This is a losing strategy for any startup."
"Hindsight is always 20/20. I’m sure a lot of decisions within the company would be made differently today than in 2009 when the company was founded. If Quirky raised a little less money, hired a few less people, and focused on building just a few products that people loved, I bet the path of Quirky would look very different today. Part of the culprit is the venture capital model, which optimizes for growth over all else. But companies shouldn’t forget that building a product that people love is the oxygen that enables everything else to exist."
"there is one decision you must be maniacal about in order to gain any momentum: your target market. Whether your idea is in its infancy, or your product is ready for primetime, selecting your market is essential before you begin selling. [Moi ici: O texto é sobre startups mas acredito que a mensagem se aplica também a empresas maduras. Quando precisam de mudar de modelo de negócio, quando precisam de se internacionalizar, quando querem entrar num novo mercado, quando querem entrar numa nova categoria, ...]
...
All these companies target specific groups in geographically defined areas, limiting the number of potential customers to maximise the value they deliver."
"A indústria conserveira está a renascer na bacia do Arade, pela mão de três jovens empreendedores,que criaram a marca «Saboreal»....Não se consideram industriais, mas sim «artesãos conserveiros». [Moi ici: Isto é Mongo! Isto é trabalhar para nicho de valor acrescentado. Avelino de Jesus ficaria horrorizado com mais este exemplo!!!]...«estudámos primeiro a cultura local. [Moi ici: Grande conselho para quem quer empreender no interior com produtos autóctones. Estudar a tradição, o que é que existia antes de Magnitogrado, o século XX, se ter instalado?] Na bacia do Arade, deste lado do Parchal e Ferragudo e em Portimão, chegou a haver 23 fábricas de conservas. Desde há décadas que não havia nenhuma, aliás, neste momento, não haverá em Portugal inteiro 23 fábricas de conservas».[Moi ici: Faz-me lembrar ter descoberto que na cidade de Baltimore, só na cidade de Baltimore, antes de 1920 existiam 19 marcas fabricantes de automóveis]...É por isso que os três empresários se consideram «artesãos conserveiros» e não industriais. «Não temos nada contra as grandes indústrias de conservas, mas acreditamos nos artesãos, nos que fazem tudo com as próprias mãos, para podermos ter um produto diferente». «A manualidade traz qualidade» [Moi ici: Não, não fui eu que escrevi, foram eles que o disseram!!!]...Ao afirmar-se como artesãos conserveiros, os três jovens empreendedores apostam em produtos criados em pequenas quantidades, gourmet, que se afirmem pela sua qualidade..
Um dos segredos dessa qualidade, nomeadamente ao nível da textura e do sabor, é o facto de as conservas serem feitas numa autoclave de pequena dimensão, construída em Portugal.
.
A cozedura rápida em autoclave, em pequenas quantidades, permite, segundo explicam, «manter o sabor genuíno e a cor original do peixe». «Temos a impressão de estar a comer peixe fresco», "
"In a world of people who too often see their situation as unchangeable, entrepreneurs choose to act. We feel the power of free will when we hear stories about the bold actions of entrepreneurs.De certa forma o jogo, o balanço, na nossa vida, entre a exploitation e a exploration. É sempre útil, ter uma saudável dose de exploration na nossa vida. Podemos pensar que estamos bem, podemos estar bem e, no entanto, com a movimentação das placas tectónicas da paisagem competitva, com a alteração do enrugamento, deixamos de estar numa zona agradável e, sem exploração prévia que nos tenha dotado de outras habilidades... corremos mais riscos de passar um mau bocado.
...
Inspiring stories. But here is the rub: In each story, the innovator’s choice was driven by their context
...
In each of these cases, context drove choice.
.
True, it took a bold decision to actually create these businesses, and the innovators should be admired for this reason. But still, there is no way anyone could have started any of these businesses without being in the context that made the innovation possible.
.
Context drives choice, yet choice is still pivotal to innovation because we often choose our context.
...
Context drives choice, but we choose our context."
"Ten years ago, the tourist board of Zell am See in Austria made a terrific call. According to the Qur’an, paradise looks like a lake surrounded by snow-capped mountains – so they started promoting their village to travel agencies in the Middle East. Now, the area receives 70,000 visitors from the Gulf States every year. Photographer Marieke van der Velden joins the tourists"Racional típico de empreendedor, tão bem descrito pela effectuation.
"entrepreneurs are indeed Effectual thinkers who start with a given set of Means and find new and different Ends, which are not necessarily pre-determined. Entrepreneurs in her studies follow the adage “If I can control the future, I do not need to predict it”."
"Na primeira metade do ano foram criadas 21.094 empresas em Portugal, o que representa um crescimento de 11,9% face ao primeiro semestre de 2014 e de 6,8% face ao mesmo período de 2013, foi hoje divulgado."Impressionante como, apesar das insolvências estarem a estagnar/cair (conforme as fontes), continua esta depuração:
"Os serviços dependentes da procura interna e das importações concentram a maioria das insolvências, embora reduzindo o número de empresas insolventes face ao mesmo período de 2014."
