Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta contexto. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta contexto. Mostrar todas as mensagens

quarta-feira, fevereiro 07, 2024

Por que faz sentido acompanhar o contexto

"Detecting threats [Moi ici: Aqui "threats" são o que costumo chamar aqui no blogue de "riscos"]
Let's focus on how your organization senses and responds to potential threats (although similar ideas apply to identifying potential opportunities). The first thing your organization needs is a threat-detection subsystem that highlights changes and identifies potential danger. This subsystem must perceive important patterns and distinguish between "real" signals requiring action and background noise. Otherwise, you'll either miss essential signals and underreact, or see false signals and overreact.

This critically important subsystem consists of everything your organization does to scan the external (social, regulatory, competitive) and internal (organizational) environments, recognize potential risks and raise awareness of the need to respond.
...
Many elements of effective threat detection are likely already in place in your organization. However, you should assess whether (1) each element is as effective as it needs to be in recognizing important patterns and providing feedback as rapidly as possible; (2) these inputs are being integrated and interpreted appropriately; and (3) there are no potentially dangerous gaps in your organization's overall threat-detection coverage.
Is your organization at times surprised by threats that weren't recognized - or were, but too late? 

Sometimes, the threat-detection subsystem fails because the surprise is predictable but not recognized.[Moi ici: Os rinocerontes cinzentos] This can happen when silos prevent information and insight from being integrated, or when incentive systems motivate people to do the wrong things. Many businesses fail because of predictable surprises rooted in organizational design weaknesses.
...
Finally, what happens when your organization's threat-detection subsystem does its job and identifies an emerging threat? To what extent is your business able not just to sense but proactively respond to avoid emerging problems and prevent crises? Your organization needs to have a problem prevention subsystem that acts proactively, thereby avoiding the need to respond reactively (because an issue that could have been prevented wasn't and became a crisis)."


Recordar os recentes:
Trechos retirados de "The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking" de Michael D. Watkins.

sábado, fevereiro 03, 2024

Tudo ligado ao contexto

Sempre a rever o contexto (parte II)

"In business, pattern recognition is your ability to observe the CUVA domains in which your organization operates and identify what’s important. Strategic thinkers possess powerful mental models of cause-and-effect relationships in their domains of expertise, such as customer behaviour, financial trends and market conditions.

By developing your pattern-recognition abilities, you will better perceive emerging business challenges and opportunities. As a result, you will move more rapidly to prioritize and mobilize your organization to avoid value destruction by neutralizing threats, or creating value by capitalizing on opportunities, or some combination of those two outcomes.

...

If you can’t recognize threats and opportunities, you cannot prioritize and mobilize your organization to deal with them. Like most executives, you likely are steering your business through rapid changes in competition, technology and society. At the same time, you are under ever more pressure to improve performance and transform your organization. In such challenging times, you face increasing mental-processing challenges. You must be able to assess rapidly evolving situations, predict their trajectories and adapt your strategies accordingly.

That is where pattern recognition comes in so handy. Insight is power. If you can better recognize patterns in complex, fast-changing environments, you can act more rapidly and effectively than your competitors."


Trechos retirados de "The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking" de Michael D. Watkins.

sexta-feira, fevereiro 02, 2024

Sempre a rever o contexto (parte II)

Parte I.

Retirado da newsletter de ontem de Peter Zeihan:
"No matter how much bubble wrap and caution tape we slap onto global maritime shipping, the industry has found itself in quite a predicament.

Despite the Ukraine War, a drought impacting the Panama Canal, Houthi attacks in Yemen, widespread piracy, and mounting geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea (yes, that is a lot of disruptions), the maritime shipping system has not cracked yet. However, it is very, very, very fragile.

The main thing propping up shipping in these more problematic regions is the emergence of 'ghost fleets' with alternative insurance policies. This insurance system is untested and unreliable, and as soon as one of the dominos falls, the entirety of the shipping system will follow.

The looming threat of a shipping collapse should terrify you. In case you need a supply chain refresher, manufacturing and global shipping is more interconnected than ever...so if the global shipping system fails, we're in for a world of hurt."

Imaginem o banhista gordo (produção da Ásia) sair da banheira de um momento para o outro.


 


terça-feira, janeiro 30, 2024

Sempre a rever o contexto

Ontem no JdN:

"Cerca de 12% do comércio global (mais de um bilião de dólares) passa pelo mar Vermelho todos os anos."

Há dias aqui no blogue em Análise do contexto, again:

"Merchants have worked through the excess inventory that piled up on store shelves and in warehouses over the past 18 months, and are now focusing on replenishing items rather than stocking up on goods to have on hand in case of supply-chain disruptions. The shift marks a return to the "just-in-time" inventory management strategy many companies had employed before pandemic-driven product shortages and volatile shifts in consumer demand prompted a switch to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach." 

Em Julho de 2022 começava em Já lhe falaram? (parte II) o meu relato da leitura de "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" de Peter Zeihan:

"Perhaps the oddest thing of our soon-to-be present is that while the Americans revel in their petty, internal squabbles, they will barely notice that elsewhere the world is ending!!! Lights will flicker and go dark. Famine’s leathery claws will dig deep and hold tight. Access to the inputs—financial and material and labor—that define the modern world will cease existing in sufficient quantity to make modernity possible. The story will be different everywhere, but the overarching theme will be unmistakable: the last seventy-five years long will be remembered as a golden age, and one that didn’t last nearly long enough at that."

Gostei do livro, embora tivesse ficado de pé atrás com o excessivo americanismo do autor. Por exemplo, no livro e nos seus vídeos Peter não se cansa de dizer que a globalização vai acabar porque a marinha americana vai deixar de patrulhar as águas internacionais para proteger o comércio mundial. Não se cansa de defender que hoje em dia só a marinha americana consegue defender os navios com pavilhão americano em qualquer parte do mundo. 

Pois bem, na semana passada os Houthis demonstraram que nem a marinha americana consegue defender navios de comércio. 

Just-in-time e desglobalização até funcionam bem, mas julgo que não era a intenção dos entrevistados no primeiro texto citado lá em cima.


sexta-feira, janeiro 26, 2024

Análise do contexto, again

Trecho retirado do WSJ de ontem em "Retailers Shift Inventory Strategy".

"Retailers are reviving an old playbook to manage their inventory levels after four years of struggling to find the sweet spot of holding enough merchandise but not too much.

Merchants have worked through the excess inventory that piled up on store shelves and in warehouses over the past 18 months, and are now focusing on replenishing items rather than stocking up on goods to have on hand in case of supply-chain disruptions. The shift marks a return to the "just-in-time" inventory management strategy many companies had employed before pandemic-driven product shortages and volatile shifts in consumer demand prompted a switch to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach.

Jamie Bragg, chief supply chain officer at Tailored Brands, said just-in-time inventory management is the goal. The Houston-based parent company of Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank worked over the past few years to get better visibility into orders that are still in production overseas, positioning it to adjust orders based on demand, he said.

...

Terry Esper, a logistics professor at Ohio State University, said companies are now better able to predict shopper demand and feel they can hold leaner inventories amid moderating spending growth and fewer supply-chain disruptions.

"Retailers have more confidence in the overall supply chain and the logistics network and the environment, and as a result, they're saying, 'Hey, I think we're at a point now where we're safe to go back to just-in-time," Esper said.

Companies typically prefer not to hold large inventories because the excess stock ties up capital, requires more space and people to manage it and runs the risk of becoming outdated as trends change, logistics experts say.

Retailers have been working to get inventories back in line with sales after bringing in too much merchandise that was no longer in demand in 2022 as consumers shifted spending from items such as home decor to office apparel and then toward travel."

Que implicações para fabricantes europeus que forneçam estes retalhistas?

  • Encomendas mais pequenas
  • Aumento da volatilidade da procura
  • Necessidade de mais flexibilidade e capacidade de resposta
  • Maiores requisitos de colaboração
  • Potencial para aumento da complexidade logística.

  • Riscos e oportunidades para os fabricantes europeus:

    Riscos:
    • Instabilidade financeira: tamanhos e frequência de encomendas flutuantes podem levar a fluxos de vendas menos previsíveis.
    • Aumento dos custos operacionais: Expedições mais pequenas e mais frequentes podem aumentar os custos de transporte e logística.
    • Desafios de produção: Adaptar os processos de produção para atender à maior variabilidade e ao imediatismo dos pedidos JIT pode ser um desafio.
    Oportunidades:
    • Parcerias mais fortes: Uma colaboração mais estreita com os retalhistas pode levar a relações mais fortes e de longo prazo.
    • Capacidade de resposta ao mercado: Os fabricantes que se adaptam de forma eficaz podem responder melhor às tendências e exigências do mercado, ganhando potencialmente uma vantagem competitiva.
    • Diversificação da base de clientes: A necessidade de mitigar o risco pode encorajar os fabricantes a diversificar a sua base de clientes e reduzir a dependência de um único retalhista.
    Riscos e oportunidades para este tipo de retalhistas

    Riscos:
    • Perturbações na cadeia de abastecimento: A dependência do JIT pode tornar os retalhistas mais vulneráveis a perturbações inesperadas na cadeia de abastecimento, o que pode levar a rupturas de stock.
    • Aumento da dependência dos fornecedores: A entrega pontual torna-se crucial, aumentando a dependência da capacidade dos fornecedores de cumprir prazos apertados.
    • Volatilidade do mercado: Mudanças rápidas na procura dos consumidores podem representar desafios na manutenção de níveis ideais de inventário.
    Oportunidades:
    • Custos de stock mais baixos: Níveis mais baixos de stock podem reduzir os custos de armazenamento e transporte.
    • Maior flexibilidade: o JIT permite que os retalhistas sejam mais ágeis na resposta às tendências do mercado e às preferências dos consumidores.
    • Melhor cash flow: Ao reduzir o excesso de stock, os retalhistas podem melhorar seu cash flow e alocar recursos de forma mais eficiente.
    Prepare-se, atenção à liquidez ou linhas de crédito para lidar com períodos de procura incerta ou mudanças rápidas no mercado, diversifique a base de clientes para não depender excessivamente de um pequeno número de grandes retalhistas, melhore a integração com os sistemas TI dos clientes.

    O resto já sabe daqui do blogue: Aumentar a flexibilidade e agilidade na produção, foco na qualidade e inovação.

    segunda-feira, janeiro 22, 2024

    Acerca do contexto

     




    Figuras retiradas de Centre for the New Economy and Society - Chief Economists Outlook - January 2024

    quinta-feira, dezembro 28, 2023

    Análise de contexto?


    Na revista MIT Sloan Management Review do Inverno de 2024 encontrei o artigo "The Looming Challenge of Chemical Disclosures" de Lori Bestervelt, Colleen McLoughlin, e Jillian Stacy.

    O artigo discute a crescente pressão regulatória sobre as marcas para compreender e divulgar a composição química dos seus produtos ao longo dos seus ciclos de vida. Isso inclui impactes desde a produção até ao destino final. O desafio reside na falta de conhecimento detalhado sobre os produtos químicos nas cadeias de abastecimento, uma vez que as actuais fichas de dados de segurança estão frequentemente incompletas. As marcas enfrentam dificuldades na obtenção de formulações químicas detalhadas dos fornecedores e precisam de investir em avaliações abrangentes dos perigos químicos. O artigo enfatiza a importância da transparência, da colaboração com fornecedores e da integração de avaliações de riscos químicos nos processos empresariais para uma abordagem mais sustentável.

    Recordo experiência no sector do calçado em que vários fabricantes de produtos usados no processo de fabrico do calçado, como tintas e palmilhas, se recusavam a cumprir a lei no âmbito dos regulamentos comunitários abrangidos pelo REACH ((Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). Portanto, enquanto uns vêem riscos, outros podem ver oportunidades para o negócio: A transparência e a colaboração entre marcas e fornecedores são essenciais para mitigar riscos e aproveitar essas oportunidades. 

    Agora são os Estados Unidos. 

    "New sustainability rules make consumer brands accountable for the composition of their products, but most companies are in the dark.

    New and emerging rules in the U.S. responsible for the environmental impacts of products through their entire life cycles are forcing brands to confront a striking knowledge gap: their often inadequate understanding of the chemicals found in their supply chains.

    The European Green Deal's Circular Economy Action Plan, which was adopted in March 2020; newly proposed eco-design rules affecting fashion and textiles; and the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive will require companies to disclose any risks to human rights and the environment. They apply throughout the product life cycle, from the formulation of ingredients and materials to product manufacturing, packaging and distribution, and recycling and disposal. In the U.S., four states — California, Colorado, Maine, and Oregon — have adopted extended producer responsibility laws aimed at packaging materials, and the issue will be a focal point of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's eventual Scope 3 supply chain requirements. On top of such legislation, a host of new regulatory actions focused on materials sourcing and disposal, safety in global supply chains, and the protection of employee safety and human rights are rolling out in jurisdictions around the world. These rules pose a challenge for many of the brands that manufacture, market, and sell the clothes we wear, the cosmetics we apply, and the toys our kids play with, because their companies have very little visibility into the detailed chemical composition of their products.

    In the face of regulatory developments, fashion brands have had to reconsider their use of materials, dyes, and a host of chemicals that have been linked to deforestation and pollution. They also need to be able to trace these compounds through every link in the supply chain.

    ...

    Most brands have relied on safety data sheets (SDSs) provided by their suppliers for information on product chemical composition. However, these documents are designed primarily to disclose information on chemicals and chemical compounds that could harm workers or others in the supply chain. They don't provide detailed information on the chemical composition of every material used in a product or offer any meaningful insight into its impact on recycling and disposal.

    In our work conducting chemical hazard assessments and product toxicology analyses for some of the world's largest brands, approximately one-third of the SDSs we reviewed contained incomplete or inaccurate information on the chemical makeup of the products and materials they covered. Whether that is a result of suppliers intentionally omitting information or a reflection of the limitations of the SDS as a disclosure tool, the end result is that the brands responsible for these products are often in the dark about what's inside them.

    Filling in the gap between the basic information provided in SDSs and the detailed disclosures that will soon be required by global authorities has become a source of conflict and confusion for many brands. Some suppliers are reluctant to share detailed chemical formulations to protect trade secrets, and many brands have been unwilling (or unable) to invest in costly chemistry assessments.

    We expect that this problem will be addressed in two ways. First, the market will likely shift to suppliers that can attest to the safety of their products and processes. 

    ...

    Second, companies will have to invest in detailed chemical screening to provide more comprehensive hazard assessments and full formulation disclosures. This approach has also been gaining in popularity as brands seek certainty and an objective means of evaluating their suppliers.

    ...

    The critical first step in the process of removing toxic substances from a supply chain is systematically identifying them. For example, we recently worked on a project with a global footwear brand that had a companywide mission to make its rubber supply chain more environmentally sustainable. It began by building a comprehensive database of its current chemical inventory and checking all entries against a list of known toxins and regulated chemicals in each jurisdiction in which it operates. Only then could it start the process of transitioning to safer chemicals.

    As they make progress, brands need to build this institutional knowledge into their sourcing and product development processes to mitigate or eliminate the harmful chemical impacts of future products throughout their life cycles.

    In the long run, these initiatives will result in safer, more sustainable consumer products. In the near term, however, expect to see a great deal of disruption and reshuffling of supply chains as more brands start to recognize that the tried-and-true methods of manufacturing and distribution are no longer sufficient in today's sustainability-oriented economy."

    A verdade é que cada vez mais nas minhas relações encontro pessoas que fazem escolhas com base nestes pressupostos. Por exemplo, na comida:

    • uma embalagem de canela da marca Continente;
    • amêndoas da Califórnia;
    • sementes de girassol da China.
    Há anos comprei um mini-rato de computador numa loja chinesa em Estarreja, ao fim de 15 dias tinha "escamas" na mão direita.

    Quantas empresas vão colocar este tema na sua próxima análise de contexto?

    Recordar os rinocerontes cinzentos!!!


    sexta-feira, novembro 10, 2023

    Acerca da análise SWOT

    Ontem li "It's Time to Toss SWOT Analysis into the Ashbin of Strategy History" e fiquei com uma sensação estranha. 

    Concordo e não concordo com o autor. Julgo que é outra vez a estória da culpa ser da caneta e não de quem a usa também referida aqui.

    Concordo quando ele refere:

    "I am tired of reading SWOT analyses. [Moi ici: Eu também, o meu detector da treta está sempre a apitar]

    ...

    Who can tell me a blinding insight that came out of any such SWOT analysis? [Moi ici: O que levanta a questão sobre para que fim é a SWOT usada?]

    ...

    Consider the strengths analysis. To be able to analyze one’s strengths, one has to have a definition of what is contained in the category ‘strengths’ and a way of measuring whatever is included. But a strength is only a strength in the context of a particular Where-to-Play/How-to-Win (WTP/HTW) choice. [Moi ici: O mesmo se pode dizer das fraquezas, o que me leva a este postal "Assim, partem já derrotados" de 2015. Usar uma SWOT para desenvolver uma estratégia, é pôr o carro à frente dos bois. Primeiro é preciso ter uma estratégia que contextualize o que são forças, fraquezas, oportunidades e ameaças]

    ...

    The superior approach is to perform an analysis only when you are clear on the specific purpose so that you can go a mile deep and an inch wide. That means you don’t do it up front as with the SWOT and you don’t attempt to make it excessively broad like the four-pronged SWOT. [Moi ici: Confesso que só cheguei a isto depois de desesperar com tantas análises de contexto, de acordo com a ISO 9001 e a ISO 14001, que não passam de pura perda de tempo. Por que é que se há-de competir por criar a maior lista possível de factores interos e externos? Recordo Running away from a plain and hard brainstorming (part Il)]

    ...

    Start by defining the strategy problem you are seeking to solve. That is, what is the gap between your aspirations and the outcomes you are seeking. Then specify the form of the solution by way of a ‘how might we’ question. That is, how might we eliminate the identified gap that we currently face. Then imagine possibilities of WTP/HTW choices that have the potential of answering the how might we question to eliminate the gap between aspirations and outcomes."

    Quando eu era criança usava a SWOT como criança. Agora que sou mais velho uso-a mas de forma muito diferente.

    1. Formular uma estratégia.
    2. Traduzir a estratégia num conjunto de objectivos.
    3. Determinar que factores do contexto interno e externo são relevantes para o cumprimento dos objectivos (daí o título Running away from a plain and hard brainstorming (part Il) não se trata de um brainstorming livre, mas condicionado ao que pode afectar cada um dos objectivos.
    4. Classificar os factores internos e externos em vectores positivos ou negativos e traduzi-los para Forças, Fraquezas, Oportunidades e Ameaças.
    5. Usar a SWOT para criar uma TOWS
    6. Usar a TOWS para identificar riscos e oportunidades no caminho para cumprir os objectivos.


    sexta-feira, outubro 20, 2023

    Vai ser um choque interessante

    Há quem defenda que a perda de um mandato pelo Labour numa circunscrição de Londres tradicionalmente trabalhista deveu-se ao ataque contra o automobilista por parte do mayor da cidade. Achei um exagero.

    Depois, à cerca de duas semanas, a meio desta entrevista (ao minuto 36), "Piers Morgan VS Jordan Peterson The Full Interview #2", ouvi:

    "you can tell the tyrants, they hate two things, they hate comedians and they hate cars"

    Achei estranha esta referência aos carros.

    Depois, no WSJ de 6 de Outubro passado descobri "The Culture War Is Coming for Your Car":

    "Forget race. Forget sex. Forget immigration. The mother of all culture wars is breaking out, and its subject is the car. The automobile has long been a policy flashpoint, with the paramount issue being where it should be able to roam. This was the heart of the brutal urban-planning battles of the mid-20th century, which were fought over the need for and placement of new highways.

    ...

    The problem with the personal car isn't its direct climate impact. Road transport, including trucking, accounts for 12% of global carbon emissions. Electric vehicles aren't an obvious means of reducing overall emissions, especially once you factor in their dirty supply chains and the coal-fired power that often charges them.

    Rather, the car is a focus for the war on carbon because it's so visible. An electric vehicle is the most conspicuous, although perhaps not the most effective, thing a household can do in service of reducing global emissions. The corollary, however, is that if a household insists on buying and driving a gasoline or diesel car, it signifies that some concern other than climate is more important-cost and convenience often at the top of the list.

    The car is becoming a cultural flashpoint because it is where climate-apocalypse proselytizing meets antielitist pragmatism. Both sides increasingly understand their fundamental values are at stake."

    Esta semana descobri que uma petição pública por causa do IUC para veículos anteriores a 2008 já ultrapassou os 200 mil subscritores neste país sem sal.

    O que fará o governo, recuará? 

    Eu duvido que as pessoas consigam relacionar o seu voto com as consequências do seu voto.

    terça-feira, outubro 17, 2023

    Demografia, direitos adquiridos, ou a análise do contexto (parte VI)


    No FT de ontem um tema que em Portugal levará muita gente a uma síncope, "It's time we stopped talking about retirement"

    "A second reason I resisted the R word is that I had no plans to stop working. I had begun preparing for my post-FT life several years earlier, spending evenings and weekends training to become a counsellor, with the hope of helping others deal with their career dilemmas. When the time came to leave full-time journalism, I discovered my bosses were happy for me to continue contributing articles and teaching in the executive education business I had helped set up. So I have settled contentedly into a three-part career of writing, lecturing and counselling.

    I am not alone. The number of UK over-65s still working rose to 1.47mn in the quarter to June 2022, an all-time record, according to the Office for National Statistics. This compares with 1.1mn in 2014. Much of the increase was driven by part-time work and self-employment.  

    Part of the reason people carry on working is financial. Rising prices and the ending of gold-plated company pensions mean many cannot afford to stop working entirely. Even the best of the old-fashioned private sector final-salary pension schemes provide annual increases that fall far short of current inflation.

    But there is also the desire to continue to matter. Moving on from a full-on job brings with it more identity issues than simply accepting one’s age. There is a loss of status. The question “what do you do?” requires a new answer. The “well, I used to . . . ” response palls after a while.

    Many 60- and 70-somethings I come across want to continue being players rather than spectators. Having more time to watch sport, travel or go to the theatre has its attractions. But for many, there is still a drive to participate, to be in the fray.  

    One of the problems with giving up work entirely is that you could be a long time retired. The average 65-year-old can expect to live into their mid-80s in developed countries, according to OECD figures. And many are living longer than that. Worldwide, there were nearly 500,000 people aged 100 or more in 2015, four times as many as in 1990, according to a 2016 Pew Research Center report, which said the number of centenarians was likely to reach 3.7mn by 2050.

    Health problems start to intrude at some point. But healthier eating and exercise (one of the pleasures of self-employment means you decide when to go to the gym) help stave them off.

    It is not just that many older people want to work; ageing societies will need them. Bain, the strategy consultancy, predicts that a quarter of the US workforce will be aged 55 or more by 2031. In Germany the figure will be 27 per cent, in Italy 32 per cent and in Japan 38 per cent."

    sexta-feira, outubro 13, 2023

    Resistir versus abraçar, ou a análise do contexto (parte V)

    Parte IV.


    É uma diferença abismal!

    A diferença de mindset entre uma empresa que abraça a mudança e uma que resiste à mudança.

    A diferença entre uma empresa com graus de liberdade e uma endividada só para se manter à tona.

    Lembrei-me disto ao encontrar no Caderno De Economia do semanário Expresso de ontem uma entrevista, "Walburga Hemetsberger CEO da Solar Power Europe - É preciso investimento urgente nas redes". Uma das constatações que fiz este mês é que "descarbonização = nova electrificação".

    Na quinta-feira de manhã no FT li "US auto salvage trade starts preparing for influx of battery-powered vehicles" sobre como os "sucateiros" de automóveis americanos se estão a preparar para o abate de carros eléctricos. Sublinhei:

    "US salvage companies might learn from Norway, where nearly four in five new cars sold last year were electric, the highest share in the world. Tom Gronvold, chief executive at salvage company Gronvolds Bil-Demontering in the Scandinavian country, said the first electric wreck showed up at his yard eight years ago and they now constituted 12 to 15 per cent of his volume. His company advertised to find buyers for batteries that could be converted to power agricultural equipment or boats. EVs, with fewer moving parts, generally undergo less wear and tear than internal combustion vehicles. But Gronvold said they still generated demand for salvaged parts."

     Será interessante visitar a Noruega para perceber como será o futuro a nível de renováveis e de mobilidade eléctrica.

    A actual rede eléctrica vai ter de sofrer uma revolução (por isso Walburga Hemetsberger diz ""Redes, redes, redes." É esta a resposta de Walburga Hemetsberger, presidente da associação Solar Power Europe, quando questionada sobre o que é preciso para acelerar a instalação de capacidade solar. "É preciso investimento urgente nas redes.") 

    Pessoalmente teria preferido a versão inicial de um país como uma rede resiliente de miniparques fotovoltaicos, mas os "tubarões" conseguiram que a ideia dos megaparques triunfasse.

    Uns em vez de pensar o futuro andam a conduzir empilhadores no armazém.

    O futuro do protectorado, ou análise do contexto (parte IV)

    Parte II e parte III.

    No FT de ontem, "Germany calls for more immigrants to fix its shrinking economy":

    "Companies are desperately looking for workers, craft businesses have to reject orders, and shops and restaurants have to limit their opening hours,” he said on Wednesday. “And it’s not just about skilled workers — we notice in every possible corner that we simply lack workers.

    ...

    Germany's economy has contracted or stagnated for the past nine months and the IMF this week predicted it would be the worst-performing major economy this year, with output contracting 0.5 per cent before returning to tepid growth of 0.9 per cent in 2024."

    Entretanto, Peter Zeihan na sua newsletter do passado dia 11, escreve "The End of Germany as a Modern Economy".

    Qual o impacte desta evolução no contexto externo que afecta o protectorado de Portugal? Os "agarrados" que querem um PRR constante.



    quinta-feira, outubro 12, 2023

    Análise do contexto (parte III)

     Os EUA estão a viver um boom industrial, com os investimentos em instalações de produção a atingirem um máximo histórico. Isto é alimentado por novas leis que oferecem subsídios e incentivos para a construção de fábricas de chips e fábricas de veículos elétricos. A Geórgia está a beneficiar enormemente deste boom, atraindo grandes investimentos de empresas como a Hyundai e a Rivian. No entanto, existem preocupações sobre a infra-estrutura e o impacto nas comunidades locais. Outros estados, como Ohio, também estão a ter um aumento no investimento em fábricas de veículos elétricos e de baterias. 

    Fonte - "America's Factory Boom Brings Billion-Dollar Projects to Tiny Towns"

    quinta-feira, agosto 24, 2023

    "The "autotelic self""

    E aplicar o que segue a empresas? Atentas ao contexto, prontas a abraçar a mudança, e sentindo-se ao volante,  estabelecem indicadores e objectivos, monitorizam o desempenho e tomam decisões com base no feedback. Não porque seguem uma receita, mas porque vivem.

    "A person who is healthy, rich, strong, and powerful has no greater odds of being in control of his consciousness than one who is sickly, poor, weak, and oppressed. The difference between someone who enjoys life and someone who is overwhelmed by it is a product of a combination of such external factors and the way a person has come to interpret them - that is, whether he sees challenges as threats or as opportunities for action. [Moi ici: Recordar as reflexões sobre os que resistem à mudança versus os que a abraçam - Abraçar ou resistir à mudança? ou Resistir versus abraçar]

    The "autotelic self" is one that easily translates potential threats into enjoyable challenges, and therefore maintains its inner harmony. A person who is never bored, seldom anxious, involved with what goes on, and in flow most of the time may be said to have an autotelic self. The term literally means "a self that has self-contained goals," and it reflects the idea that such an individual has relatively few goals that do not originate from within the self [Moi ici: Recordar as reflexões sobre o locus de controlo interno e externo - Isto é mesmo um desafio digno de Hercules e Calimeros - não obrigado!].  For most people, goals are shaped directly by biological needs and social conventions, and therefore their origin is outside the self. For an autotelic person, the primary goals emerge from experience evaluated in consciousness, and therefore from the self proper.

    The autotelic self transforms potentially entropic experience into flow. Therefore the rules for developing such a self are simple, and they derive directly from the flow model. Briefly, they can be summarized as follows:

    1. Setting goals. To be able to experience flow, one must have clear goals to strive for. A person with an autotelic self learns to make choices-ranging from lifelong commitments, such as getting married and settling on a vocation, to trivial decisions like what to do on the weekend or how to spend the time waiting in the dentist's office--without much fuss and the minimum of panic.

    ...

    As soon as the goals and challenges define a system of action, they in turn suggest the skills necessary to operate within it. If I decide to quit my job and become a resort operator, it follows that I should learn about hotel management, financing, commercial locations, and so on. Of course, the sequence may also start in reverse order: what I perceive my skills to be could lead to the development of a particular goal that builds on those strengths - I may decide to become a resort operator because I see myself as having the right qualifications for it.

    And to develop skills, one needs to pay attention to the results of one's actions-to monitor the feedback. To become a good resort operator, I have to interpret correctly what the bankers who might lend me money think about my business proposal. I need to know what features of the operation are attractive to customers and what features they dislike. Without constant attention to feedback I would soon become detached from the system of action, cease to develop skills, and become less effective.

    One of the basic differences between a person with an autotelic self and one without it is that the former knows that it is she who has chosen whatever goal she is pursuing. What she does is not random, nor is it the result of outside determining forces. This fact results in two seemingly opposite outcomes. On the one hand, having a feeling of ownership of her decisions, the person is more strongly dedicated to her goals. Her actions are reliable and internally controlled. On the other hand, knowing them to be her own, she can more easily modify her goals whenever the reasons for preserving them no longer make sense. In that respect, an autotelic person's behavior is both more consistent and more flexible."

    segunda-feira, agosto 07, 2023

    "And the nicest thing about not planning is ..."

    Ontem, via Twitter, cheguei a este artigo, "Lanxess-Chef warnt: Die DeIndustrialisierung beginnt". Entretanto, para contextualizar o artigo, este gráfico é eloquente. Ilustra a evolução do preço da energia na Alemanha desde que foi tomada a decisão de fechar as centrais nucleares.


    Mais um grupo de especialidades químicas alemão, Lanxess, anuncia o encerramento de duas fábricas por falta de capacidade competitiva dado o elevado preço da energia, mas não só. Outras empresas químicas também estão actualmente a cortar custos. A empresa química Evonik, está a cortar novas contratações até o final do ano, reduziu fortemente os orçamentos de viagens e cortou custos de consultoria - com o objetivo de economizar 250 milhões de euros neste ano. O grupo de plásticos Covestro também está a apertar o cinto em todas as áreas de custos. Em Fevereiro passado foi a BASF.

    A minha pergunta foi:

    Sem dinheiro dos impostos alemães para sustentar países não-frugais qual será o contexto futuro? Que oportunidades e ameaças?

    Claro, a frase do ICI-man vem-me sempre à mente:

    "Planning is an unnatural process; it is much more fun to do something. And the nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression." 

    domingo, julho 16, 2023

    Inversão de ciclo


    No final de Fevereiro o calçado estava a crescer 9% nas exportações homólogas, no final de Maio esse valor já estava em terreno negativo.

    As exportações de têxteis e vestuário há 8 meses que apresentam variações homólogas negativas em quantidade.

    O número de insolvências registou um crescimento homólogo de 28%, em junho, com 384 empresas insolventes. No entanto, no acumulado do ano ainda se mantém baixo dos valores do ano passado (-2,7%), com um total de 2055 insolvências, de acordo com a Crédito y Caución. Já as constituições de empresas caíram 13%, mas manteve-se um acumulado positivo.

    Estamos perante uma inversão. Algo de muito interessante é a heterogeneidade intersectorial. No mesmo sector empresas cheias de trabalho coexistem com empresas sem encomendas.

    No final do ano passado reflectia sobre: "Tudo vai depender do tal jogo de forças", qual a resultante das forças da recessão, da quebra do consumo versus o aumento da procura com o fim da globalização. A tendência parece evoluir no agregado para o lado da diminuição.

    \Outro tema que me tem acompanhado no último mês é o da evolução da metalomecânica. Será que a metalomecânica é o novo têxtil dos anos 70? 

    sexta-feira, julho 07, 2023

    Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?


    Como auditor de sistemas de gestão da qualidade gostava de encontrar mais sistemas de gestão. 

    Por exemplo, auditar um sistema de gestão em que a análise de contexto transpira temas realmente importantes e não palha para alimentar auditor. 

    Ontem no FT, em "EU set to make textile industry pay for waste", encontrei um tema que ainda não vi tratado nas empresas têxteis e de calçado:
    "The EU wants the textile industry to pay for the processing of discarded clothing and footwear under new rules aimed at cutting the environmental footprint of fast-fashion brands.
    ...
    The equivalent of 12kg of clothes and footwear per EU citizen is discarded each year of which more than three-quarters is incinerated or goes to landfill, according to commission data. The consumption of clothing and footwear is expected to increase by 63 per cent from 62mn tonnes in 2019 to 102mn tonnes in 2030. European Environment Agency data suggests.
    ...
    "Fast fashion is a problem,""
    Em tempos escrevi aqui sobre os rinocerontes cinzentos. Rinocerontes cinzentos são ameaças altamente prováveis, de alto impacto e frequentemente negligenciadas. São diferentes dos cisnes negros, que são eventos imprevisíveis e inimagináveis.

    Qual o impacte desta medida nos fabricantes portugueses? Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?

    Um risco é algo que pode acontecer, mesmo que não façamos nada.
    Uma oportunidade só pode ser aproveitada se for trabalhada com antecedência. Nunca esqueça o que aprendi na aula de despedida de um professor: Sorte ... quando a preparação encontra a oportunidade.

    E depois, um ditado asiático: “As oportunidades multiplicam-se à medida que são aproveitadas”

    Numa empresa com um sistema de gestão um tema destes não passa despercebido, motiva reflexão, decisão e acção.

    quarta-feira, junho 14, 2023

    O mundo a mudar

    No FT de ontem matéria-prima para análises de contexto.

    Por um lado "China is 'cancelled' for many foreign investors"  onde encontrei:

    "Overseas investors are selling shares even in profitable internet companies such as Tencent and Alibaba, while becoming reluctant to back the country's most promising start-ups. Venture capital group Sequoia last week became the latest business to bow to rising tensions between Beijing and Washington, announcing a plan to split its China business into a separate entity. Adding to the flight of foreign capital is an unsteady economic recovery that has deflated Chinese tech stocks that had briefly jumped on hopes for the country's post-pandemic reopening. The downward trend has left employees and investors concerned that the depressed valuations for Chinese tech groups listed in New York and Hong Kong may be long-lasting.

    "China is getting canceled and the economy is a dumpster fire," said a Hong Kong-based equity analyst." 

    Por outro lado "Clients rush for Asia investment products that exclude China" onde encontrei:

    "Global fund managers say they are rushing to meet client demand for new Asian investment products that exclude China as investor appetite for the region's largest economy is hit by slowing growth and mounting geopolitical risk.

    ...

    They said demand had been stoked by worsening US-China tension and a rally for the rest of the region that had left Its biggest market behind.

    "Investors are concerned about geopolitics," said Minyue Liu, Investment specialist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

    ...

    "On geopolitics, there are a lot of different opinions among clients but I think that anyone who thought the US-China tension was going to go away is now very aware that it will not," Lees said. "At the same time, clients are seeing that they can get a lot of exposure to China through other markets like Australia, Japan, and South Korea."

    However, the main driver of the trend towards ex-China investment was "economic, not geopolitical","

    O mundo a mudar.


    Entretanto, no JdN de hoje, na última página pode ler-se "Xi prepara megaplano de estímulo económico"... faz-me lembrar os anos 90 e os dirigentes japoneses. Estímulos económicos são para salvar o sistema financeiro.


    sexta-feira, abril 14, 2023

    Diferentes forças em jogo

    Na primeira página do WSJ do passado dia 12 de Abril pode ler-se:
    "The idea came to Johnny Taylor Jr. early last year, after one of his employees made a case that her technology position could be done anywhere. She wanted to leave Virginia, where she held job at the Society for Human Resource Management, a professional association based in Alexandria. She asked to work remotely in North Carolina.
    "Then a lightbulb went off," said Mr. Taylor, the association's chief executive.
    Instead of having the employee work in another state, he outsourced her job to India, where his organization is saving around 40% in labor costs, he said.
    Welcome to the next wave of remote work. During the pandemic millions of people in the U.S. worked from home and many decamped to cities such as Boise, Austin and Phoenix. Companies learned that employees could be productive from afar because of remote-working tech like Zoom and Dropbox.
    Those moves were usually at the behest of workers who wanted a change of environment, sought more living space or somewhere cheaper. Companies agreed to these arrangements largely to retain employees in a competitive labor market.
    Now companies are responding to lingering labor shortages and rising wages by sending jobs overseas, according to labor consultants.
    ...
    The exodus of office jobs overseas is still a trickle. But it is accelerating and some economists see it as the beginning of a new era. About 10% to 20% of U.S. service support jobs such as software developers, human-resources professionals and payroll administrators could move overseas in the next decade, according to Nicholas Bloom, an economist at Stanford University."

    Entretanto, ontem  durante a minha caminhada matinal li:

    Entretanto, nos últimos dias publicámos aqui:
    Diferentes forças em jogo e a provocar mudanças ao nível do mercado do trabalho, das empresas e dos trabalhadores. Como é que isto vai influenciar o futuro da sua empresa?