"Detecting threats [Moi ici: Aqui "threats" são o que costumo chamar aqui no blogue de "riscos"]Let's focus on how your organization senses and responds to potential threats (although similar ideas apply to identifying potential opportunities). The first thing your organization needs is a threat-detection subsystem that highlights changes and identifies potential danger. This subsystem must perceive important patterns and distinguish between "real" signals requiring action and background noise. Otherwise, you'll either miss essential signals and underreact, or see false signals and overreact.
This critically important subsystem consists of everything your organization does to scan the external (social, regulatory, competitive) and internal (organizational) environments, recognize potential risks and raise awareness of the need to respond.
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Many elements of effective threat detection are likely already in place in your organization. However, you should assess whether (1) each element is as effective as it needs to be in recognizing important patterns and providing feedback as rapidly as possible; (2) these inputs are being integrated and interpreted appropriately; and (3) there are no potentially dangerous gaps in your organization's overall threat-detection coverage.
Is your organization at times surprised by threats that weren't recognized - or were, but too late?
Sometimes, the threat-detection subsystem fails because the surprise is predictable but not recognized.[
Moi ici: Os rinocerontes cinzentos] This can happen when silos prevent information and insight from being integrated, or when incentive systems motivate people to do the wrong things. Many businesses fail because of predictable surprises rooted in organizational design weaknesses.
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Finally, what happens when your organization's threat-detection subsystem does its job and identifies an emerging threat? To what extent is your business able not just to sense but proactively respond to avoid emerging problems and prevent crises? Your organization needs to have a problem prevention subsystem that acts proactively, thereby avoiding the need to respond reactively (because an issue that could have been prevented wasn't and became a crisis)."
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Trechos retirados de "The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking" de Michael D. Watkins.
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