domingo, janeiro 01, 2017

Desafio



Objectivo para 2016 não alcançado.

Em 2014 foram 3892 Km
Em 2015 foram 4270 Km
Em 2016 foram 3416 Km

Apontemos então para 3900 km em 2017.

sábado, dezembro 31, 2016

Votos de um Bom Ano 2017

Faço votos de um Bom Ano de 2017 para todos.

Li uma vez um ditado francês que dizia mais ou menos isto: É bom que o marinheiro reze mas também convém que reme. Aprendi ainda no século passado que não é o que nos acontece que conta, é o que nós fazemos com o que nos acontece. Por isso, aconteça o que acontecer, espero que consigam apanhar o melhor lado da estória que se pode construir a partir daí.

E animem-se, os dias já estão a crescer.

E na sua empresa, alguém pensa em estratégia?

"Strategic planning is one of the least-loved organizational processes. Executives at most companies criticize it as overly bureaucratic, insufficiently insightful, and ill suited for today’s rapidly changing markets. Some even argue that strategic planning is a relic that should be relegated to the past and that organizations seeking to prosper in turbulent times should instead invest in market intelligence and agility.
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Although the diagnosis is largely right, the prescription is wrong.
More than ever, companies need to devote time to strategy. Nearly one-tenth of public companies disappear each year—a fourfold increase in mortality since 1965. And the life span of the average company has halved since 1970."
E na sua empresa, alguém pensa em estratégia?
Alguém a comunica?
Alguém monitoriza a evolução?

Hoje li este texto de Seth Godin "Shared Reality, Shared Goals".

Sem estratégia vamos andando e vamos indo. Sem estratégia não temos caminho, sem caminho não temos objectivos, não fazemos a mudança somos arrastados pelos eventos. Sem estratégia não temos caminhada comum.

Podemos ajudar?

Trecho retirado de "Four Best Practices for Strategic Planning"

Isto está tudo ligado

"If I inquired whether you were unhappy in, let’s say, the social arena, your natural tendency to hunt for confirmations rather than for disconfirmations of the possibility would lead you to find more proof of discontent than if I asked whether you were happy there. This was the outcome when members of a sample of Canadians were asked either if they were unhappy or happy with their social lives. Those asked if they were unhappy were far more likely to encounter dissatisfactions as they thought about it and, consequently, were 375 percent more likely to declare themselves unhappy.
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There are multiple lessons to draw from this finding. First, if a pollster wants to know only whether you are dissatisfied with something—it could be a consumer product or an elected representative or a government policy—watch out. Be suspicious as well of the one who asks only if you are satisfied. Single-chute  questions of this sort can get you both to mistake and misstate your position. I’d recommend declining to participate in surveys that employ this biased form of questioning."
Isto está tudo ligado.

Por que será que António José Teixeira e Ana Lourenço e um rol de comentadores transitaram para a RTP?

Trecho retirado de "Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade"


O factor principal é Mongo

A propósito de "High-tech sewing machines are bringing a century-old Massachusetts textile mill back to life".

Sinceramente, com base na minha experiência em Portugal, acredito que não é a automatização, não é a alta tecnologia que está a trazer estes postos de trabalho e estas empresas novas ao Ocidente. É claro que a alta tecnologia e a automatização ajudam. No entanto, acredito que o factor principal é Mongo:
"The new Massachusetts sporting apparel company, NoBull, calculated the cost of doing business in a place like Bangladesh versus Lawrence when deciding where to manufacture its shorts, sports bras and T-shirts; It chose to stay local, and went with 99Degrees to manufacture its products.
“Literally, we were up there [in Lawrence] yesterday working on development, taking a look at production. And it was an hour-and-15-minute drive,” says Marcus Wilson, a founder of NoBull. “Developing products or producing products in Asia, there’s a lot of time that’s spent with product just going back and forth for review. And here, it’s just a really quick process that moves very, very fast.
So, for example, if red stretch pants in size medium are hot this week, Wilson can get more to the store shelves quickly.
“We’re a rapidly growing startup and speed to market is critical for us,” says Wilson."
Rapidez, flexibilidade, pequenas séries.

Como prova dos nove, olharia para o preço unitário das peças à saída da fábrica e compararia com o preço unitário médio das peças feitas no estado há 30 anos corrigido com a inflação.

BTW, sintomático que o espaço onde isto agora se desenrola fosse em 1909 o da maior fábrica têxtil do mundo.

BTW 2, interessante o prémio do MIT. Foi o MIT que me ajudou a pôr consistência teórica a uma realidade que eu descobria no terreno no princípio da segunda metade do século XXI. Obrigado Suzanne Berger.

Uma provocação

Uma provocação que subscrevo passa por isto:
"The careful reader will note that I have not referenced advertising-based business models. This is a big topic in its own right (and I’ll try to cover it another blog post), but just to end with a provocation: I don’t believe advertising based business models will be sustainable in the Big Shift. Advertising is going to prove to be a less and less effective way to reach and engage with ever more powerful customers. As a result, we are ultimately going to have to figure out how to offer something of value that the customers will pay for themselves rather than continue to look to advertisers to foot the bill. This makes the search for new business models even more urgent."
Os métodos que resultavam com os broncos da economia baseada na massa. baseada no Normalistão vão resultar cada vez menos com as tribos do Estranhistão

Trecho retirado de "The Big Shift in Business Models"

sexta-feira, dezembro 30, 2016

Curiosidade do dia


Trecho retirado de "Saudades de Aznar"

Evolução dos modelos de negócio (parte I)

Em 2004 um projecto balanced scorecard fez-me despertar, fez-me ter consciência do potencial e importância dos ecossistemas da procura.
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Por isso, para mim, isto é muito claro:
"Business models in the past have been pretty simple. There was me, the vendor, and you, the customer. I provide you with products and services and you pay me for those products and services.
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That’s all changing. Increasingly, we are seeing the opportunity to mobilize others to deliver value to our customers. We are even finding ways to connect our customers with each other so that they can offer information and advice to each other. Platforms are becoming more and more central to value creation and value delivery.
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Platforms are great for customers. They offer customers far more choice and flexibility in moving from one product or service to another. As customers become more and more powerful and experience pressure to increase their own performance, they will see more value in accessing platforms that expand their array of choices.
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But, from a platform provider viewpoint, platforms definitely require an evolution of the business model. We need to be clear up front who will be paid for what. We also need to be clear about what services we will be providing to third party providers on the platform as well as to our customers directly. The economics certainly become more complicated."
Trecho retirado de "The Big Shift in Business Models"

Mongo e as micro-empresas

Outro sintoma associado à hipótese Mongo, o crescimento das micro-empresas:
"A tiny segment of U.S. manufacturing appears to be thriving—the one with no employees.
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A mix of technology, economic necessity and adventure is leading more Americans to found companies that plan to stay very small.
...
The number of businesses classified as manufacturers with no employees has been rising steadily since the depths of the recession. The tiny operations often make food, craft beer, toiletries or other niche products. Their growth stands out in a sector that has been shedding workers for decades.
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U.S. food manufacturers with no employee but the owner nearly doubled from 2004 to 2014. One-worker beverage and tobacco makers expanded 150%. Such chemical manufacturers—a category that includes makers of soap and perfume—grew almost 70%.
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In all, there were more than 350,000 manufacturing establishments with no employee other than the owner in 2014, up almost 17% from 2004, according to the most recent Commerce Department data.
...
[Moi ici: Segue-se um sublinhado dedicado a gente de Aveiro que sonha em criar uma livraria diferente] The work may use old-fashioned tools, but technology underpins the business. His website, built using Squarespace, allows him to reach customers in places like New York and Miami, markets that would have been more daunting to serve 25 years ago.
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“A big part of the reason why people are making money with it and pulling away from traditional jobs is the ease of selling on online platforms,” Mr. Hollows said.[Moi ici: Mas fazem-no também porque existe procura, porque a massa está a encolher e as tribos a crescer e a diversificarem-se.]
...
[Moi ici: O que se segue é verdade mas será cada vez mais menos verdade porque há cada vez menos lugar para a massa, para o granel, para o impessoal] “We need those firms that are just a few folks,” said Jason Wiens, policy director at the Kauffman Foundation. “But we do need to encourage those gazelles, those fast-growing companies, because that’s where innovation and job creation come from in the economy.”"

Trechos retirados de "Big Growth in Tiny Businesses"

É tão fácil criar uma experiência

"True happiness comes from our memories — our experiences.
Psychologist Tom Gilovich studied the subject of happiness for decades and has concluded that experiences are more likely than material goods to lead to happiness
...
happiness levels are equal when buying something or a traveling escapade, but memories of traveling resonate within us as we relish in the memories. Buying a new gadget or a new car will just become an everyday ordinary.
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An object will eventually become old or expired. Memories, however, stay engraved and bring us joy each time we remember the experience."
É tão fácil criar uma experiência.

Basta receber e tratar mal um cliente. Oh, wait!

Trechos retirados de "Science Explains Why You Should Prioritze Experiences Over Stuff"

"what we present first changes the way people experience what we present to them next"

"The highest achievers spent more time crafting what they did and said before making a request. They set about their mission as skilled gardeners who know that even the finest seeds will not take root in stony soil or bear fullest fruit in poorly prepared ground.
...
the best performers also considered and cared about what, specifically, they would be offering in those situations. But much more than their less effective colleagues, they didn’t rely on the legitimate merits of an offer to get it accepted; they recognized that the psychological frame in which an appeal is first placed can carry equal or even greater weight.
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Besides, they were frequently in no position to tinker with the merits of what they had to offer; someone else in the organization had created the product, program, or plan they were recommending, often in fixed form. Their responsibility was to present it most productively. To accomplish that, they did something that gave them a singular kind of persuasive traction: before introducing their message, they arranged to make their audience sympathetic to it.
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There’s a critical insight in all this for those of us who want to learn to be more influential. The best persuaders become the best through pre-suasion—the  process of arranging for recipients to be receptive to a message before they encounter it. To persuade optimally, then, it’s necessary to pre-suade optimally. But how?
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In part, the answer involves an essential but poorly appreciated tenet of all communication: what we present first changes the way people experience what we present to them next."

Trechos retirados de "Pre-suasion"

quinta-feira, dezembro 29, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito da capa e do tema da revista Sábado:

É um festival, é um avatar de tudo o que está mal neste país.

Reparo na idade, gente velha e acabada que levou o país a 3 bancarrotas ainda não aprendeu, ainda não ganhou um pingo de humildade e continua a acreditar que têm a solução para uma suposta estratégia nacional. Gente que deve ter tido sonhos húmidos com o CyberSyn.

Como seria o nosso país se tivéssemos gente no poder com mais humildade, por exemplo, como Bloomberg:
"You don't get to be in charge, really. You can help set the table, and then get out of the way and let the village/city function the best you can."
Como não recuar à tentação nacional-socialista de 2008?

Reparo que são todos homens. As mulheres não têm voto na matéria?

Reparo que são todos lisboetas. Não há gente noutras zonas do país com voto na matéria?

Reparo que são ou foram todos funcionários públicos ou funcionários de instituições grandes. Dificilmente alguma vez respiraram o ar do empreendedorismo, ou da paixão, ou da dor de que tem skin-in-the game.

Alguém repara em mais características deste grupo?



Curiosidade do dia

"Further, in countries where wealth comes from rent seeking, political patronage, or what is called regulatory capture (by which the powerful uses regulation to scam the public, or red tape to slow down competition), wealth is seen as zero-sum. What Peter gets is extracted from Paul. Someone getting rich is doing so at other people’s expense. In countries such as the U.S. where wealth can come from destruction, people can easily see that someone getting rich is not taking dollars from your pocket; perhaps even putting some in yours. On the other hand, inequality, by definition, is zero sum.
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In this chapter I will propose that effectively what people resent –or should resent –is the person at the top who has no skin in the game, that is, because he doesn’t bear his allotted risk, is immune to the possibility of falling from his pedestal, exiting the income or wealth bracket, and getting to the soup kitchen."
Em relação ao primeiro sublinhado tive logo de desabafar no Twitter:


Em relação ao segundo sublinhado, como não recordar os tipos que vão estudar Filosofia para Paris ou beber piñacoladas numa praia tropical:
"Há os que, cumprida a comissão de serviço, recebem o seu e vão para uma praia beber piñacoladas e gozar o day-after. E há os que, ano após ano, distribuem a bosta e prestam contas das suas decisões."

Trecho retirado de "Inequality and Skin in the Game"


Muito mais do que seguir um guião

Esta semana alguém contava-me que uma empresa grande ainda não tinha definido os indicadores e metas para 2017 porque ainda não tinha o orçamento para 2017 terminado.

Ou seja, nessa empresa o orçamento é anterior à estratégia e às metas não financeiras. WEIRD!

Há muitos anos que assumi que um orçamento é a tradução em unidades monetárias do que será necessário para executar uma estratégia e quais os critérios de sucesso para avaliar essa estratégia ao longo do tempo e no final do período.

Executar um orçamento, tal como executar uma estratégia não deve ser simplesmente picar os itens de uma checklist.

Em "Executing Your Professional Strategy or a To Do List?" escreve-se acerca das estratégias profissionais pessoais mas podia ser sobre as empresas.
"Executing professional strategy starts with just that: a professional strategy.
A professional strategy is a roadmap from Here to There. And Beyond There.
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Generating a To Do list without taking the time to work on your professional strategy is just a lot of busy-ness and busy work.
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A professional strategy brings clarity to business and organizational chaos and catalyzes your understanding of the value of your contributions."

"Midsize companies can’t compete ... on scale"

"Companies with between $10 million and $1 billion in sales saw 6.3 percent revenue growth in first quarter 2016, compared to just 1.1 percent for the economy as a whole, according to the National Center for the Middle Market.
...
Differentiation is key.
Midsize companies can’t compete with their large-cap counterparts on scale, so they need other ways to differentiate themselves. One way to do that, said Bala Ganesh, senior director of marketing for the US 2020 Team at UPS, is to offer a unique customer experience. “Just purely competing on price is impossible for smaller retailers,” Ganesh said. “You want to create unique products, a unique experience or some unique bundle not available from big box retailers.”.
One example might be to build a social community of like-minded consumers around a product offering, where the price of admission is a purchase or service subscription. [Moi ici: Uma tribo] Or bundle existing products and services in customized ways [Moi ici: Fugir do vómito industrial que só pensa em uniformidade] not available from larger outlets. “This is how they can hit above their average,” Ganesh added.
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Ganesh identifies five areas where midmarket companies must excel to play in the big leagues: product selection, a flawless web or mobile experience, shipping and delivery transparency, flexible pickup options and an easy return process. “This is what drives demand. The consumer buying journey doesn’t end after you click buy, and more and more retailers are recognizing that,” Bala said."
Trechos retirados de "How midmarket companies use tech to compete with the big guys"

"the relationship is the holy grail"

"Big data may be all the rage. But often, “little data” about a customer’s prior interactions is more useful in determining how to optimize the experience to make the next engagement or, increasingly, the next transaction more likely. The best way to get a meaningful understanding of your customer is to go directly to the source. A senior marketer at a beverage company said, “If [you] can form a direct relationship with the consumer, even if you can’t transact directly, the relationship is the holy grail.” To that end, blue-chip marketers like Gillette and Luxottica are emulating digital natives like Harry’s or Warby Parker, which sell directly to consumers in the same categories. Knowledge of site usage and consumption can lead companies to develop more granular segmentation and more effective targeting of messages."
Em linha com o que escrevemos aqui há anos sobre o big data. Sorrio só de pensar no algoritmo parvo do Booking.com

Trecho retirado de "The Marketer’s Dilemma"

“this product is not for you”

"If a consumer doesn’t see his job in your product, it’s already game over. Even worse—if a consumer hires your product for reasons other than its intended Job to Be Done, you risk alienating that consumer forever. As we’ll discuss more later, it’s actually important to signal “this product is not for you” or they’ll come back and say it’s a crummy product."
Quem tem coragem de assumir isto? Quem sabe quais são as encomendas mais importantes?

Trecho retirado de "Competing Against Luck".

quarta-feira, dezembro 28, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

Esta tarde ao passar junto à estação de metro da Trindade no Porto não resisti a tirar esta foto a uma tenda montada para venda de livros usados:


É claro que quem escolhe estas frases só obedece a critérios estéticos e não está preocupado com a adesão das mesmas à realidade.

Esta frase é típica daquela mentalidade de quem quer comer a fatia de bolo e mantê-la ao mesmo tempo.

Esta frase faz lembrar esta outra imagem:

Como se sustenta um modelo de negócio que tem o que a concorrência não tem, diferenciação, a preço competitivo, baixo preço?

Ontem alguém contava-me que pagou 50 euros por edição de "As Mil e Uma noites" mas que se tivesse de pagar 70 ou 80 pagava na boa.

Ou se tem os livros que mais ninguém tem e se trabalha para um nicho, ou se tem os livros mais baratos e trabalha-se para a massa. As duas as coisas ao mesmo tempo é que não.


"sinalizar a sua posição e tentar influenciar os seus concorrentes"

Ontem de manhã bem cedo li o título "Mondelez Portugal : "Preocupa-nos este desequilíbrio das vendas com promoção"" onde se encontra:
"Em Portugal, o peso das promoções nas vendas de bens de grande consumo duplicou entre 2011 e 2016, para 44%. No mesmo período, "as vendas não duplicaram", afirma o director da Mondelez Portugal. "Isto não é sustentável a longo prazo"."
Uma breve pesquisa permitiu-me chegar a este artigo de Fevereiro de 2016 "Promoções Atingem 41% das Vendas de Grande Consumo em Portugal no Último Ano"

A minha mente começou a interrogar-se: para quem é que o director da Mondelez Portugal está a falar?




Está a falar para os seus concorrentes.

A lei não permite que os concorrentes se juntem numa sala real ou virtual para negociar preços ou posições conjuntas perante a distribuição grande. Então, uma empresa grande, para tentar levar os outros a assumir uma posição semelhante, arranja estas entrevistas para sinalizar a sua posição e tentar influenciar os seus concorrentes a assumirem uma mesma posição perante a distribuição grande.

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte VIII)

 Parte Iparte IIparte IIIparte IVparte Vparte VI e parte VII.
"The best average.
Mass retail by definition needed mass media to pull products from the shelf. It meant producers had to make the ‘best average’ (oxymoronic, I know) products they possibly couldaverage products for average people to support the price of the system. Pop culture could simply not support niche because niche is invisible and niche has no voice in a world defined by mass-media monologue. Big brands were created more by big budgets than by big ideas and amazing products. As marketers, the desire was for conformity of the masses. It made things easier and helped the balance sheet work."
Este é o mundo que estamos a abandonar. Este é o mundo dos Índices e Rankings uniformizadores. Este é o mundo que acaba com os big sellers e com os top-ten.