"How do firms respond effectively to a crisis?" (parte II)

Parte I.

""In 1 995, Brazilian president Fernando Henrique Cardoso decided to privatize Brazil's railroads.

...

A private firm, GP Investimentos Limited, decided to bid for the branch known as the "southern line," which ran through Brazil's three southernmost states. GP was a high bidder in the auction on December 1 996. After an interim period of management, the firm put one of its own executives, Alexandre Behring, in charge of the company, which was later renamed America Latina Logistica (ALL). When Behring took charge, he was in his early 30s-just four years out of business school.

Behring didn't have much to work with. ALL had only 30 million Brazilian reals in cash on its balance sheet. At one of Behring's first meetings, a mid-level manager beseeched him for 5 million reals to repair a single bridge. Though sympathetic, Behring knew that fixing everything that was broken would require hundreds of millions of reals. The needs were profound, but he faced an unyielding constraint: ALLS depleted bank account.

The railroad purchased by GP was in chaos, and when Behring and his team took charge, with new personnel and new priorities, more chaos was whipped into the preexisting chaos. The resulting decision paralysis should have been inescapable. And it likely would have been if Behring hadn't made clear exactly what needed to be done.

His top priority was to lift ALL out of its precarious, cash-strapped financial state. To accomplish this, he and his 35-year old CFO, Duilio Calciolari, developed four rules to govern the company's investments:

Rule 1: Money would be invested only in projects that would allow ALL to earn more revenue in the short term. 

Rule 2: The best solution to any problem was the one that would cost the least money up front--even if it ended up costing more in the long term, and even if it was a lower-quality solution. 

Rule 3: Options that would fix a problem quickly were preferred to slower options that would provide superior long-term fixes. 

Rule 4: Reusing or recycling existing materials was better than acquiring new materials.

The four rules were clear: (1) Unblock revenue. (2) Minimize up-front cash. (3) Faster is better than best. (4) Use what you've got. These rules, taken together, ensured that cash wouldn't be consumed unless it was being used as bait for more cash. Spend a little, make a little more."

Trechos retirados de "Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard"

"o meu problema é a atitude"

Teodora Cardoso: 

 "O OE 2021 não previu nada. Ou melhor, previu que realmente era previsto que o muito curto prazo era preciso gastar à vontade e depois logo se vê. Este Orçamento foi um espetáculo triste. Aquela aprovação na especialidade, com não sei quantas mil alterações, tiveram de estar a aprovar medida que nem devem ter tido tempo para ler… Isto numa situação crítica que em termos de economia e orçamentais é de facto muito grave. Não era possível prever em outubro ou novembro [o novo confinamento]. Ainda agora é impossível prever tudo o que se vai passar em 2021, quanto mais nessa altura. O meu problema não é esse, o meu problema é a atitude: não vi que existisse, fosse de quem fosse, a perceção de que estamos a passar por uma crise que vai ter consequências.

...

É muito pior apresentar expectativas positivas que passado uma semana são postas em causa. Não há nada pior para afetar a confiança do que isso. Vemos nos países onde isso não é feito, em que há mais cuidado a olhar realisticamente e prudentemente para o futuro, que há maior confiança. Somos dos países onde há menor confiança, e uma das razões provavelmente tem a ver com isso, essa necessidade de estar constantemente a criar expectativas positivas que depois são defraudadas."

Como não regressar a Maio de 2009:

"Comparem a linguagem do ministro das Finanças, qual personagem do filme "Os 3 amigos", com a linguagem de "carroceiro" e de desmancha-prazeres de Belmiro de Azevedo "“Ele diz as coisas que são politicamente correctas. Ele não assina nenhum cheque para fazer que as coisas aconteçam. Os empresários é que têm a obrigação de dizer as coisas com mais clareza. Não há nenhuma actividade que eu conheça que esteja em retoma. Há uns é a aguentar-se”

Façam uma sondagem e perguntem ao povo da rua quem é que estará mais próximo da realidade sentida e vivida pelas pessoas.

BTW, acham que as empresas de Belmiro de Azevedo, por causa da sua linguagem realista e crua estão a viver um momento de descalabro moral, de desânimo, revoltadas com o discurso da tanga do seu líder? Acham mesmo?

Não estarão antes, cientes da realidade, a fazer das tripas coração, a pensar em alternativas, a tentar criar um amanhã melhor? Qual das duas linguagem promove mais facilmente o cerrar de fileiras?

Se Belmiro de Azevedo replicasse a linguagem do ministro nas suas empresas iria gerar o veneno mais corrosivo das organizações, IMHO, o cinismo."

Teodora Cardoso:  

"Deve ter ouvido aquela definição de economia que estuda a aplicação de recursos escassos. Em Portugal nunca se consideram os recursos como escassos. Sempre dizemos que o financiamento há de vir de qualquer lado, portanto, aplica-se de qualquer maneira. Onde se vê que há uma má aplicação de recursos é, por exemplo, no aumento da dívida sem o aumentar do crescimento da economia capaz de sustentar essa dívida. [Moi ici: Por estes dias já é cão que morde homem, "Dívida pública fecha 2020 com recorde de 270,4 mil milhões de euros"] É um sinal de má colocação de recursos. Hoje pode-se ver em muito mais coisas, mas a nível macroeconómico este é um indicador irrefutável.

...

Avaliam-se as despesas ou a dotação, nunca se avaliam as despesas pelo resultado que se quer alcançar e muito menos se avaliam depois se eles foram alcançados ou não."[Moi ici: Ui!!! Esta é uma velha guerra deste blogue. Aquilo a que chamo os monumentos à treta. Os Planos de Actividade dos organismo da Administração Pública. Por exemplo: Junho de 2007, Maio de 2008]

Trechos retirados de "Teodora Cardoso avisa que “situação está mais complicada” e que empresas já não têm pé de meia"

Assar sardinhas com fósforos

 

Em cada vez mais sectores de actividade produzir é o mais fácil. Ao longo dos anos fui escrevendo:

• Ainda a produtividade (Outubro de 2006)
• Leituras de 2007 (Dezembro de 2007)
• Para mim é claro (Dezembro de 2009)
• Produzir é o mais fácil (Maio de 2010)
• A diversidade é o melhor seguro para a sociedade (Junho de 2011)
• Fugir à abordagem eficientista (parte II) (Janeiro de 2012)
• Há ainda um enorme esforço de missionação por fazer (Outubro de 2012)
• Nunca esquecer, produzir é o mais fácil (Maio de 2013)
• Vai ser lindo... schadenfreude (Janeiro de 2019)

Ontem encontrei um delirio de quem não torra dinheiro seu:

"Na reabertura da oficina de Guifões, em janeiro de 2020, o primeiro-ministro e o ministro das Infraestruturas estiveram de acordo no sonho de pôr Portugal no clube dos produtores de comboios no futuro, à imagem do que fez o país com a indústria automóvel nas últimas décadas. [Moi ici: Acham que a indústria automóvel assenta em empresas portuguesas? Pensamento infantil!]

.

A ambição de António Costa e de Pedro Nuno Santos pode ganhar um novo impulso nos próximos anos graças à bazuca europeia, desejou esta terça-feira o presidente da CP, Nuno Freitas, durante um debate remoto da conferência da Plataforma Ferroviária Portuguesa. [Moi ici: Portanto, dinheiro da bazuca para torrar num sonho... um sonho que durará o tempo que durar o dinheiro. Assar sardinhas com fósforos]

.

"Portugal tem todas as capacidades para fabricar comboios. Há negócio e temos mão-de-obra mais barata do que na Europa Central", salientou o gestor ferroviário. [Moi ici: Com que então fabricar comboios é mão-de-obra barata. Fabricar comboios é produzir... E organização? E eficiência? E competitividade? E ganhar concursos internacionais para fornecer a CP? Acham que o dinheiro da bazuca serve para produzir para uma reserva protegida da concorrência exterior? Acham que reconstruir carruagens com 80 ou 50 anos é o mesmo que fabricar comboios?]

...

O argumento financeiro também pode jogar a favor de uma fábrica de comboios portuguesa. Portugal precisa de comprar mais de 250 comboios nos próximos 20 anos "só para manter a oferta atual". Isto corresponde a mais de 1000 carruagens. [Moi ici: Acham que na União Europeia a compra de comboios pode ser feita impedindo concorrentes profissonais de concorrer?]

...

"A grande dificuldade é integrar este investimento nas atuais regras comunitárias, que são muito limitadas a nível da concorrência, e que limitam o investimento público e privado."" [Moi ici: Pois... Se não fosse tão grave este delírio com a torrefacção de dinheiro a assar sardinhas com fósforos até me ria. Gente que torra dinheiro sem skin-in-the-game é perigosa. Imaginam o que está por trás daquele... "que são muito limitadas a nível da concorrência"]

Lembram-se dos 2,5 milhões de euros despejados na CEiia para desenvolver um ventilador? Tão espertos, nem sabiam que os dispositivos médicos têm de ser certificados!!! Engonharam qualquer coisa, confiaram em qualquer coisa!!! Desviaram para canto!!!

Entretanto. E recuo a Janeiro de 2013.

Trechos retirados de "Portugal tem todas as capacidades para fabricar comboios"

How can we use the process approach (part III a)

 Part I and part II.

In the last part, I wrote that this part would be about processes and strategy. However, let me make a small change and first address the modeling of an organization, based on the process approach, before relating processes to strategy.

4. Modelling an organization – mapping processes

ISO 9001:2015 clause 4.4.1 states that an:

Organization shall determine the processes needed for a quality management system. 

How can that be done?

We need to develop a model of how the organization works having as its building blocks what we call processes.

4.1 What is a model?

“A model is an external and explicit representation of part of reality, as seen by people who want to use the model to understand, to change, to manage and control that part of reality”

 Michael Pidd in “Tools for thinking - Modeling in Management Science” 

Remember, we don't draw a model to answer ISO 9001:2015 requirements, and please auditors. We draw them because we want to understand, to change, to manage, and control our organization's present and future.

Models are always a simplification and an approximate representation of some aspects of reality, models reduce complexity, simplify the original or the future to be built, to reduce the noise produced by reality, and thus highlight, distinguish the critical factors, for the object of study concerned. The model does not show all the attributes of the original, it only illustrates those attributes that are relevant, or suitable for the observer/creator/user of the model to manipulate. Models do not need to be accurate to be useful, models are simplifications, and their usefulness lies precisely in that approach.

The task of the observer/creator/user of the model is to collect the visions, the perceptions, even if ill-defined and implicit of reality, and to shape them in a sufficiently well-defined way to be understood and discussed by other people. A model is a representation of reality. 

With Deming I learned:

All models are wrong, some are useful!

The reality is composed of a set of objects that constitute a system, at a conceptual level we design a model capable of illustrating the system, the reality. Armed with the model as a work unit, we can perform simulations to perceive reality and influence it, the simulation uses the model to perceive and anticipate the dynamics and behavior of the system.

4.2 Modeling an organization as a set of processes

To build a model of an organization, it is necessary to have a clear definition of its purpose, now an organization exists only because there are customers, they are its raison d'être! 

An organization, the organization object of our study, is an entity, it is a system, which transforms, that converts “potential customers with needs” into “customers served”. 

4.2.1 Step 1 - Identify the different types of customers 

Customers are not all the same, it is possible to identify and isolate different types of customers, this activity is important because different types of customers may require, different processes and may mobilize different actors, may involve different inputs and different outputs. 

4.2.2 Step 2 - List the inputs and outputs of the model

Distinguish the different states of the customers and identify all interactions (inputs and outputs) between the organization and its customers! How do we get in contact with potential customers? How do we collect information to develop new products and services? How do we receive orders or requests for proposals? How do we deliver our products and services? 

4.2.3 Step 3 – Determine the core, the heart of the model

Let us track the route, from inputs into outputs. Let us zoom in on the organization. Let us open the black box! 

For the purposes of this blogpost, we select a certain type of customers and then start to dive inside the organization  (for someone implementing a quality management system for certification, this could be a management system scope option)

I gather a set of people that know the organization, each from a different perspective and give them sticky notes and markers. Then, I post two sticky notes that represent the responsible for major input in the system and the receiver of the major output of the system.

I ask; what actions, what activities do you do when going from one extreme into the other? People use sticky notes to write things that they remember. I set a rule: one sticky note must have one verb and one noun like “Receive Request For Proposal”, like “Write Proposal”, like “Budget Proposal”, like “Present proposal”, like “Negotiate proposal”.

After that kind of brainstorming one can start to aggregate sticky notes that belong to a flow of activities. For example, I can replace these 5 sticky notes above by saying that they belong to the same process called “Win order”. Repeating the technique for other sticky notes we develop the central sequence of processes.

When designing the road from the inputs into the outputs, do not dive into to much detail! 

Let us look at a high level of abstraction and consider 3 to 6 entities (each entity represents a process, a set of activities) And let's number the processes sequentially! 

We can do a mental exercise: "If we were riding an order, what would we see from the reception to its delivery?" Do not register departments or functions, but state changes, the main tasks! ”

4.2.4 Step 4 – Name each process

 

Designate each entity (each process)! Start with a verb that illustrates the transformation that takes place inside! Avoid references to departments, to avoid confusion remember:

• processes are not departments, 
• the organization chart is not a process map, 
• the vertical and horizontal views of an organization are very different.

I like to designate a process by relating its name to the main output of that process. 

While certain processes seem to be clearly determined, based on a physical flow (production, logistics, distribution, transport) or a flow of information (design/development, closing accounts, invoicing, payment), certain activities of an administrative nature seem difficult to integrate into a “process” view. 

There may then be a strong temptation to group them by function analogy and to baptize these groupings as “human resource process” (in which recruitment, training, communication, payment of wages, contract management will be mixed) work, social dialogue, without the slightest logical link or the tangible outputs that characterize such a process appearing), “accounting and financial process”, etc. Performing more or less arbitrary functional groupings is of no interest from the point of view of process management, because it will be difficult to draw interesting conclusions as to the coordination and chaining modes. 

In the next part, we will continue with the modeling of the public works company as a basis for modeling an organization. 

"How do firms respond effectively to a crisis?"

 

"How do firms respond effectively to a crisis? As the current spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 is expected to have devastating economic and societal repercussions, this question raises growing interest among strategy scholars and practitioners alike. Our overview of select articles published in the SMS journals points to four strategic responses to crisis: Retrenchment, persevering, innovating, and exit.

.

Retrenchment refers to cost-cutting measures that potentially reduce the scope of a firm‘s business activities. As prior research shows, this strategic response may help firms survive a crisis in the short run, as it partially offsets lost revenues. However, evidence on the long-term viability of retrenchment measures is mixed at best: While some studies position retrenchment as a necessary precursor to strategic renewal and firm recovery, other studies warn of the irrecoverable damages such as the loss of synergies that retrenchment measures entail.

.

Persevering relates to the preservation of the status quo of a firm‘s business activities in times of crisis, e.g., through debt financing and the consumption of available slack resources. Prior studies suggest that persevering can be a viable strategic response to the crisis in the medium run. Specifically, the value of conducting strategic renewal ― "too early" in times of crisis may be eroded by constant and unforeseeable changes in the business landscape, thus leaving firms that persevere better off. However, when crises last for longer periods of time, the sources of internal and external slack may dry up at some point. Then, it might be ― "too late" to conduct strategic renewal in order to tap into alternative sources of revenue, as this process often requires slack resources as well. Thus, in the long run, persevering may threaten firm survival.

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Innovating refers to conducting strategic renewal in response to a crisis. As prior studies show, crises open up opportunities for strategic renewal—even for firms that rigidly stick to their strategy under business-as-usual conditions. This is so because crises trigger a mode of reflection that allows managers and employees to transcend the boundaries of what they believe is thinkable and feasible. Given that especially long-lasting crises leave irrevocable traces in the business landscape that render a return to the previous order impossible, innovating is an important, if not unavoidable strategic response to the crisis for sustaining firm survival in the long run.

.

Exit refers to the discontinuation of a firm‘s business activities. While a firm‘s exit is conventionally viewed as a forced outcome of conducting an unprofitable business, it can also be a strategic response to the crisis. Specifically, exits free up committed resources that can, then, be reused for pursuing crisis-induced business opportunities. In this sense, an exit is not necessarily a manifestation of business failure per se, and it is not necessarily the last resort when the other strategic responses to crisis fail. Instead, a business exit may be a valuable strategic response to a crisis at any time."

Trechos retirados de "Strategic responses to crisis" 

How can we use the process approach (part II)

Part I.

3. The process approach – a quality management principle

The process approach is one of the seven quality management principles included in ISO 9000:2015. Let us see the statement of that principle:

Consistent and predictable results are achieved more effectively and efficiently when activities are understood and managed as interrelated processes that function as a coherent system.

It is easy to relate those “Consistent and predictable results” with the objectives referred to in the definition of a management system. 

And what does the same ISO 9000: 2015 say about what a process is? 

set of interrelated or interacting activities that use inputs to deliver an intended result

So, we may see an organization as a coherent system made of a set of interrelated or interacting elements called processes, and it is through those processes that an organization achieves its intended results, its objectives.

At a first glance, we have: 

The intended results may be: 

Now, let us zoom the organization to find out which processes are present and how they interrelate.

 For example, the processes may be:

 

When this organization wins a new project, they have to start ordering resources needed to provide the service. At the same time, winning a new project means developing a new service, new resources need will be determined, and service preparation may start. Then, at an agreed date the service provider may start.

Let us go back to the management system definition:

System to establish policies and objectives, and processes to achieve those objectives

Now, our system is our set of interrelated processes, and it through those processes that you try to meet intended results. Processes are like variables in a mathematical equation that we operate in order to meet our intended results: 

Let us go back again to ISO 9000:2015, clause 2.4.1.3, where we can read:

These processes interact to deliver results consistent with the organization’s objectives and cross functional boundaries. Some processes can be critical while others are not.

When we model how an organization works, we include in the model a set of processes. Those processes are needed, but not all processes have the same impact or influence in meeting each objective or intended result.

Just as an example, let us consider this matrix that relates processes and objectives:

 Processes are where the rubber meets the road. Whatever an objective the management wants an organization to achieve, it is only a dream if one or more processes of the organization are not mobilized and changed to that. In the matrix above, meeting objective “Better sales” requires working on the process “Win project”. Meeting objective “Less complaints” requires working on processes “Prepare service” and “Provide the service”. Meeting objective “More satisfied customers” requires working on processes “Develop a new service”, “Prepare service” and “Provide service”. 

Now, look into the process “Maintain equipment”. It must exist but does not contribute directly to any overall objective. These processes are tricky. If you are excellent in these kinds of processes, they will be expensive but will not contribute to customer satisfaction, but if you make a mistake in these processes, they can contribute to customer un-satisfaction. 

No one says: we are very satisfied with our electrical power supplier because at the end of the day there were no power failures. We say, it is the minimum someone can expect, no failures 

Next: Process and strategy

How can we use the process approach (part I)

 1. Management system definition

Let us start with the management system definition.

Do you know what is the ISO 9000:2015 management system definition?

set of interrelated or interacting elements of an organization to establish policies and objectives, and processes to achieve those objectives

Let us substitute “set of interrelated or interacting elements of an organization” with the word “system”. According to ISO 9000:2015, a system is a “set of interrelated or interacting elements”. So, a management system is:

A system to establish policies and objectives, and processes to achieve those objectives

Have you ever looked at this definition of a management system? Seriously, have you ever looked at this definition with eyes to see? I confess, for years and years I looked at it and never gave it importance, until one day I read it again and I was shocked ... I have been working with ISO 9001 since the 1980s. At that time, I was trained in another view on quality systems, very focused on procedures and quality control. 

Now, I was looking at the definition of a management system and saw something I had never seen before. A management system is a system that establishes a policy, that is, a strategic orientation, a set of priorities, translates that policy into a set of objectives aligned with the policy, the objectives are concrete challenges to be achieved, and then, start working systematically to achieve these objectives. 

2. Systemic thinking

An organization is a system. A system generates results and these results do not happen by chance, they are a perfectly normal product resulting from the system, the way people work, their culture. Thus, the current system generates the current results. If an organization wants to achieve different results in the future, it will have to transform, it will have to stop being the current organization to become the organization of the future. 

When we look into the current organization, the one generating the current results, we can discover a network of loops, a network of practices, that reinforce desired or undesired results:

Parts of these loops are intentional design, but others have evolved without a central command. To achieve the desired objectives for the future, it is necessary to act on these loop networks. 

Back to the definition of a management system. In a management system, the focus must be on the work to be carried out systematically to modify an organization, so that it can achieve objectives aligned with strategic priorities. I would almost say that everything else is noise. 

Next: Process approach definition

Teste

Vamos lá testar a veracidade disto.

Postal criado a 17.12.2020

Torrar dinheiro

 

"You’ve got to hand it to the Italians. Rome is better than anyone at creating political crises that hold a mirror up to everyone else. Witness the latest kerfuffle over the latest collapse of the latest Italian government. 

...

The proximate cause for this turn is a feud between Mr. Conte and his predecessor Matteo Renzi (now leading his own micro party) over how to spend some €209 billion in European Union coronavirus aid. Mr. Conte mostly wants to seize personal control of the disbursement of those funds, via a committee of technocrats he handpicks to oversee spending. Mr. Renzi wants Parliament to get a say in the coming bonanza, and who can blame him? Throwing money at constituents is at the heart of politics, and it’s terribly unfair of Mr. Conte to deprive his colleagues of the opportunity to do that for which they were created.

Yet there are deeper forces at work in Rome. Messrs. Conte and Renzi are fighting a battle over who can lay claim to the political legitimacy to spend so much money—while squeezing out the one politician who actually has it."

Trechos retirados de "Italy’s Question Is Ours, Too: WhoWill Spend the Covid Cash?"

A emoção como fundação da estratégia

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre Mongo, a metáfora que uso para designar um mundo pleno de variedade e de tribos apaixonadas. Aliás, por aqui tem-se escrito sobre:

"hiperentusiastas tem tudo a ver com a assimetria das tribos apaixonadas e "tu não és meu irmão de sangue""

Assim, faz todo o sentido sublinhar:

"it’s perhaps time to reassess our approach to strategy. At the risk of being viewed as a heretic, let me suggest that the successful strategies going forward will be strongly rooted in addressing the emotions of participants, rather than simply relying on facts and figures. [Moi ici: Como não recordar esta imagem ...]

[Moi ici: ... como não recordar a diferença entre os outputs e os inputs que são processados para gerar outcomes]

...

The opportunity for strategy

The opportunity for strategy in the next decade and beyond is to unleash ways to deliver more and more value with fewer and fewer resources.

...

In the industrial age that brought us to where we are today, unmet needs were largely defined in material terms – what products and services could address our material needs, 

...

Certainly, there are still large segments of the population with significant material needs, especially in trying times like this pandemic. But the mounting performance pressure of the Big Shift is also generating unmet needs at the emotional level. More and more of us are becoming consumed with the emotion of fear

...

Focusing on unmet emotional needs

The successful strategies of the next decade will begin with cultivating a deep understanding of these unmet emotional needs and then developing unique approaches that are effective in addressing these emotional needs. 

...

The strategies that will succeed in the future are those that focus on the emotions of the participants and find ways to cultivate deep, long-term, and trust-based relationships among a growing array of participants by meeting their deepest emotional needs. "

Trechos retirados de "Emotion as the Foundation of Strategy" 

Do you have the willpower?

 "Two companies, two giants, each dominating its market, each fated to collapse very quickly. Neither lacked insight. What they lacked was willpower. Kodak invented the first digital camera. Encyclopedia Britannica produced one of the first multimedia encyclopedias on a CD-ROM. Both companies became trapped in business models that had previously worked so well. Kodak’s photographic print division resisted any shift to the lower-profit digital cameras, and EB’s sales force refused to put its product on a disk. Each company needed to make changes while its original business model was still profitable before the collapse began, but they were unable to throw away what looked like a winning hand.

...

IBM chose to become smaller but more profitable and successful, transforming itself from a maker of business machines into a global provider of information services. The company made these changes before it had to before it entered a period of crisis. [Moi ici: Como não pensar no calçado e na Fase IV que apresentei na parte I desta série]

...

It is easy to cherry-pick examples, contrasting Kodak with IBM while ignoring companies that did try to transform themselves and got it disastrously wrong.

Mostly, I worry that the doctrine of continual transformation runs counter to the emergence of insights. Advocating for continual or even periodic transformation makes it into a routine to be performed. In contrast, insights are accidental. An organization that rigidly adheres to a doctrine of continual transformation, following the creative desperation path, is different from one that is sensitive to connections, coincidences, curiosities, and contradictions.

Organizations demonstrate willpower when they act on insights, particularly insights about their primary goals. An insight about a goal isn’t about being flexible and adapting plans in order to reach the original goal. It’s about changing the goal itself." [Moi ici: Li este parágrafo várias vezes e em todas elas veio-me à mente a expressão "Hmm! Wrong jungle!"]

A Depressão Económica que se seguirá à pandemia vai matar, está a matar, muitas empresas. Vai obrigar outras a transformarem-se, vai obrigar outras a mudarem de modelo de negócio. Na passada sexta-feira estive numa empresa, a certa altura verbalizei, para que ficasse claro para todos os presentes:

- O vosso modelo de negócio vai ter de mudar da venda de produtos, da conquista de mais clientes, para a venda de serviços aos clientes que têm. Densificação de relações!!!

BTW, hoje durante a caminhada matinal, pela primeira vez percebi que a densificação tem de ocorrer não só com o exterior da organização, mas também no interior das organizações, e isso, é exactamente o contrário do que Taylor propôs.

Trechos retirados de "Seeing What Others Don't" de Gary Klein.

Análise de risco

Aquando da próxima vez que alguém, no seu sistema de gestão da qualidade ou ambiente, lhe falar na necessidade de actualizar a análise de riscos da sua empresa, lembre-se deste evento no Hospital de Amadora-Sintra com o fornecimento de oxigénio.

Qualquer organização tem um desempenho limitado pelo seu elo mais fraco. Qualquer organização que precise de aumentar a capacidade de produção, remenda o elo mais fraco, para depois, a seguir, encontrar outro elo mais fraco e assim sucessivamente. Aquilo a que se chama a Teoria das Restrições aborda este tópico.

Alguns dos constrangimentos são claros e sabemos quando vão aparecer, por exemplo, a limitação de pessoas. No entanto, outros são mais invisíveis e só são considerados quando se manifestam.

Uma das formas de prevenir a sua manifestação consiste em fazer periodicamente uma análise de risco.

Não menospreze este exercício.

"Concentrate on the best profit opportunities"

 "“We’re finding that you can’t save businesses by just allowing them to reopen,” Mills says. “Until it’s safe, their employees don’t want to come back. Their customers don’t want to come back. There’s no one out shopping on Main Street.”

...

three recommendations to cash-strapped business owners:

Focus on social media and email to reach customers. The coronavirus pandemic forced many analog companies to embrace digital technology, such as contactless payment tools and online booking software.

...

However, businesses don’t need a comprehensive digital strategy—or even a website—to succeed online. An Alignable survey found that 25 percent of respondents were turning to social media to reach customers while 18 percent were engaging them through email.

The key is to harness the most effective outlet for a firm’s products and services,

...

Scrutinize every cost. Every dollar matters now. Companies hanging by a thread should try to renegotiate contracts with suppliers and landlords, and refinance debt. Is there a new supplier for a key item the company uses? Would opening only during high-traffic hours reduce electricity bills?

...

Concentrate on the best profit opportunities. Small-business owners must identify their most valuable products and services and eliminate everything else. If a restaurant’s tried-and-true burger has a stronger gross profit margin than its artisan cheese platter, it’s time to dump the cheese, at least for now.

It’s equally important for firms to understand their most loyal and profitable customers—who they are, what they buy, and how to engage them. Beyond their purchasing power, loyal customers can become a company’s best advocates, providing powerful word-of-mouth advertising that’s authentic and free."

Trechos retirados de "How to Help Small Businesses Survive COVID's Next Phase" 

"it will have permanent winners and losers"

 "We should pause and reflect on comments by the German Allensbach polling institute. Allensbach is not better, or worse than others in tracking voter preferences for national elections, but they are known to produce good early warning signals about shifting moods in the population. Now is such a moment. 

Renate Köcher, the head of the institute, has come out with a warning the mood in the country is turning for the worse. The crisis is becoming existential for a very large number of people. During the first lockdown, the Germans rallied behind the government and eagerly sought information from the media. A year later, a growing number are saying that they are in a worse state than they were a year ago, both materially and psychologically. What is becoming clear is that the crisis destroys livelihoods. There is an overwhelming sense that selfishness, aggression, and impatience have become more prevalent, Köcher told Handelsblatt in an interview. A particular feature of this crisis is that it will have permanent winners and losers. This aspect, she says, is not prevalent at all in the public debate. Only about 10% of the Germans fall into the group of Covid-19 deniers. But many of those who are not in this group feel they can't speak their mind for fear of being branded extremist. The anger is turning against the media.

These comments support the view that this pandemic is a structural slump. A pandemic is a quintessential macro event. But it gives rise to a micro crisis. The public debate focuses almost entirely on the macro side - impact on GDP, measured unemployment. But this time, there is a real possibility that we get the macro broadly right, but the micro completely wrong."

Trecho retirado de "When the pandemic destroys livelihoods" 

Para reflexão

Recomendo este texto "A Lost Generation" (título da versão em papel)

Impressionante ler assim, preto no branco, o impacte do lockdown nos estudantes e nas mortes provocadas pelo dano económico nos próximos 15 anos.

BTW, também podem ler "THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 UNEMPLOYMENT SHOCK ON LIFE EXPECTANCY AND MORTALITY RATES"

Gosto de gente que faz!

Há uma frase irónica sobre os que querem mandar e mudar o mundo, mas não conseguem manter a sua própria casa arrumada e limpa.

Há os que passam a vida no mundo da conversa, da retórica, da oratória, dos memorandos, das manifestações, do rasgar de vestes, do ... e há os que fazem, os que mantêm os pés na terra, os que constroiem o caminho à medida que o vão fazendo. Não conheço a associação referida neste artigo, "Eles criaram um oásis de espécies nativas numa zona onde impera o eucalipto", apesar de eu ter vivido em Estarreja até 2017 (que saudades do verde, da água, da fauna, dos esteiros, das cegonhas, das garças, dos cheiros a rosas-bravas, a uvas-morangueiro, a bosta, a milho recém-colhido, a terra revolvida, que saudades das salamandras e tritões, que saudades das amoras, que saudades de gente boa, que saudades dos cavalos e da paixão dos ciganos por eles, que saudades das vacas nos campos, que saudades dos coelhos, ...) não os conheço.

Gosto de gente que faz! Gosto de gente que não comete o erro de Anteu, gente com os pés na terra. Gente que não se esconde.

Há erros e erros

 Em "Seeing What Others Don't" Gary Klein inicia o livro a partir desta equação:

De certa forma isto corresponde ao que March chamou de exploitation e exploration.

Naquilo que é a parte em que as empresas fazem exploitation procuram reduzir, procuram evitar erros. Aqui, um erro é um "crime".

Naquilo que é a parte em que as empresas fazem exploration cometer um erro é a coisa mais natural. Aqui, não cometer erros é um "crime".

Voltemos aos mapas de SWardley:

Na fase "Wonder" temos a exploration, temos o trial and error.

Na fase "War" temos a exploitation, temos a actuação típica de competir com uma commodity, uma fase em que não se podem cometer erros, em que se procura obececadamente o aumento da eficiência.

Feita esta introdução mergulhemos no artigo "A desculpabilização sistemática do erro" de Luís Todo Bom:

"Os portugueses desenvolveram um conjunto de provérbios e afirmações de desculpabilização do erro, que utilizam com enorme frequência: “Errar é humano”; “Só não erra quem não faz nada”; “ Não vale a pena matutar no erro, temos é de olhar para a frente”.

Após a desculpabilização, segue-se, normalmente um auto de fé: “Sei que errei, mas não voltarei a errar.”

Claro que volta a errar, justifica-se com um diferente enquadramento em que o erro ocorreu, repete as afirmações iniciais, e prossegue, com absoluta impunidade e a indiferença do resto dos cidadãos.

Nunca se ouvem afirmações do tipo: “Quem estuda não erra”; “A repetição dos mesmos erros é inadmissível”."

O autor começa o artigo a dizer mal dos portugueses porque vivem impunemente com o erro. Está-se a referir aos erros cometidos no "trial and error" associado à inovação? Não, está a referir-se aos erros que cometemos no dia-a-dia naquilo que está estabelecido. E sim, concordo com o autor. Num país pequeno, e dominado por meia dúzia de famílias, fazer com que o erro tivesse consequências seria demasiado perigoso para a estabilidade das elites. Por isso, há anos que escrevo aqui sobre os amadores a jogar bilhar que não estudam até ao fim as consequências do que propõem.

Só que depois desta introdução o autor muda a agulha para a inovação, para a exploration:

"Quando ensino “gestão da inovação” aos meus alunos, explico-lhes que uma das características das empresas inovadoras reside numa cultura de tolerância ao erro, aplicando a expressão correcta, “só não erra quem não experimenta novas abordagens”."

Verdade! 

"Podia esperar-se que, com esta benevolência para o erro, Portugal fosse um país profundamente inovador no seu aparelho produtivo.

Infelizmente, não é o que se verifica, já que o país tem a sua economia concentrada em sectores industriais tradicionais, pouco inovadores, e em serviços de comércio, turismo e restauração de baixo valor acrescentado.

Esta indiferença nacional perante o erro e a ausência de processos estruturados de aprendizagem, a partir dos erros cometidos, é dramática em termos da construção duma cultura de responsabilidade e de utilização intensiva de conhecimento, ingredientes essenciais para o desenvolvimento do país."

Aqui começo a achar o racional do autor um pouco confuso...

Na fase "Wonder" precisamos de cometer erros para ter insights, para descobrir o novo. No entanto, à medida que a bem-sucedida experiência na garagem cresce, e começa a escalar, cometer erros começa a ser cada menos tolerado, para se poder competir. É o que escrevi há dias como sendo "Fugir do ordenado e arrumado". Julgo que o autor não devia induzir-nos no erro de nos fazer confluir os dois tipos de erro como se fossem a mesma coisa.

Já na metade final do mesmo livro Gary Klein apresenta esta tabela, aplicável à fase "War":

Tudo coisas que nós portugueses não gostamos de fazer. Por isso, a inovação que criamos normalmente não cresce. E se não cresce não é por causa dos erros que se cometem na fase "Wonder", é por causa da tolerância para com os erros nas fases seguintes.

Ainda ontem numa empresa desesperava com a dificuldade que as pessoas sentem em assumir a densificação (Ah! Normann e Ramirez!!! O que aprendi convosco). 

BTW, talvez fosse bom clarificar o que se entende por inovação. Ou seja, organizem-se:

• Empresas portuguesas entre as que menos apostam na inovação na UE (Janeiro de2021)
• Inovação nas PME e grandes empresas portuguesas: o crescente destaque de Portugal no mundo (Novembro de 2020)

"The pandemic accelerated this trend"

 Como era no passado:

"New York-based publicist Juliette Levy’s early days in beauty PR revolved around drumming up press for two big product launches per year. Over the course of six months or more, she would work with brands to map out a marketing plan, typically centred around an event with a guest list featuring editors, socialites, celebrities and, in more recent years, bloggers and influencers."

Como foi 2020:

"Times have changed. More brands rely on a constant stream of new products, rather than a handful of big launches, to drive sales. The pace is set by direct-to-consumer brands that come out with new items whenever they want. Customers expect monthly (or close to) launches from brands like ColourPop and Morphe or The Ordinary and The Inkey List, which rely on a new ingredient serum or palette to perennially drum up buzz."

Pois:

"The pandemic accelerated this trend" 

Recuemos a 2011:

"Há anos ouvi no CITEVE, numa conferência que não consigo recordar, alguém dizer que o sector têxtil devia aspirar a 52 épocas por ano em vez das tradicionais duas. Com 52 épocas por ano não haveria hipótese de recurso à Ásia." 

Trechos retirados de "Beauty’s Never-Ending Product Launch Cycle" 

Linear versus sistémico

pic.twitter.com/Zj1RrIXgt5

— Complexity Labs (@Complexity_Labs) November 13, 2018

"working to please the pleasable is a lot more likely to pay off"

 Na senda dos meus postais sobre Bieber, ou sobre um negócio ter inimigos, ou não ter 100% de clientes satisfeitos, este texto de Seth Godin, "Pleasing the unpleasable" que o meu amigo Paulo me mandou:

"There are bosses, customers and partners who will never be happy.

And sometimes, despite the futility, we work to please them anyway.

Because that can be a compass. It can help us do the work that will satisfy others (or ourselves).

It can also be a trap, an endless treadmill of disappointment that leads nowhere in particular.

We should be clear about which one we’re on. Because working to please the pleasable is a lot more likely to pay off."

Curiosidade do dia

Teletrabalho ou desemprego para o povo.

Donos disto tudo:

• Restaurante aberto.
• Visitas a museus
• Reuniões presenciais e almoçaradas
• Reuniões sem máscara

Fugir do ordenado e arrumado

 Em Março de 2010 escrevi acerca do modo de ser português nos negócios:

"os portugueses são bons a abrir fronteiras, a desbastar novas terras, a ir à frente, a explorar (na linguagem de March, os portugueses são bons na exploration e fracos na exploitation. Embora, também possa dizer que os incumbentes confiam demasiado na exploitation e pouco na exploration) por isso, há cada vez mais empresas a exportar para Angola, não por causa do I&D mas por causa da língua comum, mas por causa do gerente que pôs a mochila às costas e foi à luta.)"

Em Novembro de 2018 relacionei o modo de ser português com a fase dos pioneiros nos mapas de SWardley:

Antes de avançar, juntemos mais um modelo a esta sucessão, Roger Martin e o seu funil do conhecimento, Fevereiro de 2010:

Os negócios evoluem do pioneirismo, ou seja, do mistério, para os algoritmos, para a automatização, para a comoditização, para a escala ou volume, para a organização, para a eficiência, para a régua e esquadro. 

Os que não podem competir pela eficiência, voltam à exploração dos pioneiros em busca de uma nova alternativa.

Ontem, na minha caminhada matinal entre as 7h00 e as 8h00, mais um capítulo de  "Seeing What Others Don't" de Gary Klein, e mais uns trechos a juntarem-se para justificar o que faz a diferença entre os pioneiros e os outros. 

Quem está na fase do algoritmo, ou "Town Planners" segue um conjunto de linhas de orientação:

"Guideline 1: The system should help Boone do his job better.

...

The goal of helping people perform their jobs better makes sense only if they have well-defined and stable jobs. It doesn’t apply to people whose jobs may shift as a result of insights. ... The system we design to help people do their current jobs may lock them into the original job concept and reduce the chance for insights. ... People sometimes find it easier to stick with the original job description to avoid the hassle of making changes.

Guideline 2: The system should clearly display critical cues.

 

This guideline isn’t much better. When we identify critical cues in advance, we’ll likely miss those that unexpectedly becomes relevant after we have an insight. ... Many computer aids rely on getting information into and out of databases, and these databases are organized so that the users can navigate them without getting lost. However, the original database structure is likely to become obsolete as knowledge workers gain more insights and revise their thinking. When that happens, the original database structure becomes cumbersome and may

...

Guideline 3: The system should filter out irrelevant data.

This guideline is actually harmful.

...

The recommendation to filter out irrelevant data sounds good as long as we know in advance which data are relevant. It screens out the happy accidents and unexpected cues that often spark insights.

...

The desire to filter out irrelevant data, guideline 3, is understandable. Most of us feel we are drowning in data, so we’re grateful for any help we can get. Unfortunately, this guideline is responsible for creating Internet filter bubbles.

...

Guideline 4: The system should help people monitor progress toward their goals.

This guideline also creates problems. Such monitoring will help us stay on schedule. But progress monitoring can get in our way if, after we start a project, we have insights about how to restructure the tasks. Even worse, what happens if we have insights about how we should revise our goals? Once we give up the original goals, all our progress markers become obsolete. A tool that monitors progress toward the original goals would have pestered the riders for conducting an inefficient search strategy.

...

Each of the four design principles listed at the beginning of this chapter depends on order and structure, whereas insights are disorderly. [Moi ici: Qual o estilo típico da mentalidade portuguesa?] To change the way decision aids and information technologies are designed, developers would have to pay less attention to how the work was done in the past and more attention to giving decision makers room to discover—giving them more freedom to modify their tasks."

Como o português típico não planeia, não se organiza, ou fá-lo de forma básica, também está mais liberto das amarras das linhas de orientação do modelo anterior. Assim, mais facilmente foge do modelo actual e começa a busca de alternativas. 

Para reflexão

 

Figuras retiradas daqui.

Formas de pensar

"People differ in how well they tolerate contradictions and ambiguity, and this personality style likely affects their success at gaining insights. People also differ in how ready they are to entertain ideas that they don’t think are true and in how much they enjoy imagining alternative universes.

Some people become impatient with speculation. They see the playful exploration of ideas as a sign of immaturity. They want closure, and they roll their eyes when a member of the group starts going off on tangents. They are concrete thinkers who just want to work with the facts, not with flights of fancy. This concrete reasoning style wouldn’t leave people very open to insights."

Trecho retirado de  "Seeing What Others Don't" 

Contexto da moda

"El Covid-19 se come un 26% de las ventas del comercio de moda en 2020":

"[Moi ici: Números para os Estados Unidos] La moda fue el sector que peor evolucionó en el último año, seguida de cerca por los bares y restaurantes. [Moi ici: Não tinha essa percepção] La facturación del conjunto del retail se incrementó un 0,6% gracias a la alimentación.

...

La moda cierra un año para olvidar. En Estados Unidos, donde nunca llegó a decretarse un confinamiento a escala nacional, las tiendas especializadas en ropa y complementos redujeron su facturación un 26,4% en 2020, según el avance publicado hoy por el US Census Bureau.

En su conjunto, el retail y los servicios de alimentación incrementaron su facturación un 0,6% en el último año, gracias al empujón de las tiendas de alimentación, que crecieron un 11,5%, y a las de materiales de construcción y jardinería, con un incremento del 14%.

...

También se dispararon a doble dígito las ventas en los que el US Census Bureau denomina nonstore retailers, es decir, distribuidores que venden por catálogo o a través de Internet. Este tipo de comercios se incrementaron un 22,1%, hasta 971.554 millones de euros.

Sólo en diciembre, las ventas de moda se hundieron un 16% respecto al mismo mes del año anterior, mientras otros comercios como los de materiales de construcción se dispararon a doble dígito."

O que gera lockdowns?

Dados de 15 de Janeiro de 2021 às 15h00 relativos às mortes por covid:

Segue-se um trecho retirado de: "How to grow from here?":

"What are the main risks for economies in 2021? Over the coming months, it will become clearer which companies will still be viable and can adapt in post-pandemic markets once government support dries up and new regulations take effect. At least in some sectors, customer preferences will shift.  

For economic recovery, everyone is counting on vaccines. But for this to work, the roll-out would have to be fast and smooth, a sufficient number of people need to agree to be vaccinated, and the vaccination has to be effective against new strains. This is not a given. For trading companies, this will embed significant risks. Divergence in vaccine roll-out across countries will affect supply chains.

Control Risks, a London based Consultancy, list on the top of its risk map for 2021 a fragmented exit from lockdown. There will be countries that easily absorb the vaccine and return it back to normality, while others face an obstacle course over the availability of the vaccines, as well as effective distribution and public uptake."

O que gera lockdowns? 

Qual o racional por trás da decisão política de um estabelecer um lockdown?