Agora a ordem tem de ser outra

As empresas que praticam na internet o tipo de publicidade que resultava no tempo dos mass-media nunca vão descobrir isto:

"The other kind of marketing, the effective kind, is about understanding our customers’ worldview and desires so we can connect with them. It’s focused on being missed when you’re gone, on bringing more than people expect to those who trust us. It seeks volunteers, not victims."

No tempo da internet, no tempo de Mongo, não adianta vomitar algo e depois tentar vender. Agora a ordem tem de ser outra:

"It doesn’t make any sense to make a key and then run around looking for a lock to open.
The only productive solution is to find a lock and then fashion a key.
It’s easier to make products and services for the customers you seek to serve than it is to find customers for your products and services.”

Excerto de: Seth Godin. “This Is Marketing”. Apple Books.

"Avé, Avé, Avé Maria"

Quem me conhece sabe que às vezes começo a cantar em modo rápido uma versão do "Avé, Avé, Avé Maria" como outros contam até 10, para não hiperventilar e perder a cabeça a dizer coisas de que me possa arrepender. Claro que a maior partes das vezes é usada para demonstrar o meu desacordo, ou quase desespero com o que acabei de ouvir.

Apeteceu-me cantar um "Avé, Avé, Avé Maria" ao ler em Novembro de 2018, como se fosse uma novidade descoberta recentemente:

"“O envolvimento dos vários stakeholders da cadeia de internacionalização faz com que as empresas aumentem a sua quota no mercado externo e o sucesso passa por agilizar processos, mais do que reduzir custos ou outros aspetos que se mantém relevantes”"

Afinal, o que é que pregamos neste blogue desde 2005 ou 2006?

• Uma adega? Não uma "boutique" de vinhos! (Junho de 2006)
• Como assegurar a sustentabilidade desta comunidade? (Outubro de 2006)
• Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade (Janeiro de 2007)
• Quem se concentra na defesa do passado, perde a oportunidade de ganhar o futuro (Maio de 2007)
• Flexibilidade, flexibilidade, flexibilidade (Julho de 2007) 
• Tirem-me deste filme (parte III de IV) (Julho de 2008)
• Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor (Março de 2011)

Quem é que contou esta "novidade"?

"afirmou Jorge Rocha de Matos, presidente da Fundação AIP,"

Rocha de Matos? Ainda não se reformou? Ah! Arranjaram-lhe uma prateleira de onde continua a controlar. Como é que alguém se mantém tanto tempo à frente de organizações privadas?

Trecho inicial retirado de "Agilizar é palavra de ordem na nova estratégia das exportações"

"rather than just following a procedure"

"This article is based primarily on feedback from Orion Registrar’s U.S. staff and auditors regarding clients who were certified to older versions of ISO 9001, prior to their certification to ISO 9001:2015....What “Bad” Have You Seen in ISO 9001:2015 Implementation?.The most common responses to this question involved shortcomings in implementation, including the failure to:...Retain documented information that is required by ISO 9001:2015, both that which was formally referred to as records and also that which is necessary for the effectiveness of the management system. Some clients view the reduced requirements for documented procedures as a reduction in the requirements, without understanding that the focus is on the processes and improving them, and on being more data driven in their approach, rather than just following a procedure."

Ao longo dos anos tenho encontrado empresas que "agarram" a ideia de apostar no uso de indicadores para monitorizar e tomar decisões, e quase sempre têm evoluções tremendas. Também tenho encontrado outras empresas que resistem à ideia de usar dados, que preferem usar o instinto, que preferem navegar à vista... e quase sempre não saem da cepa torta.


Trechos retirados de "ISO 9001:2015 Implementation: The Good, the Bad and the Trending"

"Your job is to make all things unequal"

"On the continuum of value creation, we put Level 1 value on the left end, and the farthest point at the other end is Level 4, strategic partner. This is what we mean when we say, “Enter the conversation from the right.” It means that we start with the highest level of value.
.
Levels 1 through 3 are not advice. The features and benefits of a product won’t help you understand why you can no longer generate the results you need in a world of constant, accelerating, disruptive change. The services and support that create the experience of being easy to do business with don’t help you achieve your longer-term strategic goals and outcomes. The fact that you produce tangible business results, while being critically important, doesn’t help me understand what I need to do to deal with a future that will require me to make changes I haven’t yet considered. A long-term strategic partnership now requires someone who can occupy the role of trusted adviser and offer good counsel. This requires playing at Level 4.
Level 4 means that you have the business acumen and situational knowledge (in other words, the experience) that allow you to create a strategic level of value. It means you understand and can explain the dissonance your dream client is experiencing; you can explain why they are struggling to produce the results they need and are challenged by their current circumstances. .
You can explain to the client why and how they need to change before they need to make that change. This is the “advice” part of “trusted adviser.
...
To remove your competitor from your dream client’s account, you need to create value that is strategic. This is the kind of value that provides them with a competitive advantage. It’s built on insight and ideas. It’s made up of your ability to help guide their business to a better future state. It also requires the ability to develop the relationships necessary to make change inside their company.
For our purposes here, we will use this operating philosophy: All things being equal, relationships win. All things being unequal, relationships still win. Your job is to make all things unequal [Moi ici: Numa empresa, o objectivo é trabalhar para desnivelar o terreno, para criar a concorrência imperfeita, para desenvolver uma vantagem competitiva] by creating greater value by creating trusted relationships, the kind that allow you to deliver your advice—and have that advice taken. ”

Trechos retirados de “Eat Their Lunch” de Anthony Iannarino.

Até que ponto pode resultar?

Um pouco contra a corrente referida aqui acerca da logomania, em "The VC-fueled anti-brand that could upend luxury fashion" um modelo de negócio:

• venda por subscrição;
• venda de produtos sem marca, mas com qualidade semelhante às das marcas de luxo e feitos, supostamente, nas mesmas fábricas.

Até que ponto pode resultar?

"people’s attachment to a specific brand name varies a lot from person to person. Some people will only buy their sheets from luxury bedding maker Frette, but don’t care whether their leather bag has a fancy logo on it, as long as it is durable. Another person will drop $4,000 on a Celine bag, but will buy drugstore aisle makeup as long as it looks good. Cai’s goal is to provide a wide variety of products so that there’s something on the site for every kind of consumer.
.
While there’s been a resurgence of logomania over the last few years, with brands like Gucci and Louis Vuitton plastering logos on products, a 2015 report by Goldman Sachs found that millennials prefer clothing without logos and branding. Italic is a direct response to this trend. “We’re cutting out the brand, which is the largest middleman of all,” Cai says."

O mundo a mudar

A propósito da evolução do retalho, mais uns dados:

"As compras de vestuário e calçado através de retalhistas que estão apenas na internet deverão aumentar 67,4% nos próximos cinco anos no Reino Unido, atingindo 7,5 mil milhões de libras (aproximadamente 8,6 mil milhões de euros) em 2023, representando mais de um terço das compras online de vestuário e calçado. O estudo da empresa de análise de dados GlobalData revela ainda que o crescimento das vendas de players puros online inovadores vai ultrapassar as do sector online (antecipa-se que seja de 40,3%), uma vez que os retalhistas multicanal têm dificuldade em manter-se a par das rápidas mudanças. De acordo com o estudo “Online pureplayers in UK clothing & footwear 2018-2023”, o futuro será negro para os atores da moda que não têm ainda uma forte penetração no canal digital. «Embora os retalhistas multicanal dominem o consumo online em vestuário e calçado, estão sob ameaça dos atores puramente online que estão continuamente a desenvolver a sua proposta para oferecer a melhor experiência de compra»"

Trecho retirado de "Retalho online vai dominar no Reino Unido"

Horus e as empresas

Depois de ouvir Jordan Peterson fui à procura da interpretação da Trindade: Osíris, Horus e Isis. Encontrei este texto, "Lectures on Personality by Jordan Peterson—#2 Mythological Representations":

"Osiris (center) | is the god of tradition & culture—a pillar—he’s an abstraction of the patriarchal force that stands behind tradition. “Tradition” is a way of behaving and cooperating with one another, which is a pattern of behaviors.
...
Order (Osiris) and Chaos (Isis) | They are wedded together. Humans cannot exist without a frame of reference, a solid structure that allows them to navigate their way through life. On the other hand, there will always be unknowns that could arise suddenly that we can’t cope with. (e.g. you’re in a solid relationship with someone and then they tell you they’ve been having an affair the entire time. This crosses the border between what you thought you knew (order) into the great unknown (chaos)…
Horus (left) | Order and chaos can unite and create a third thing, the god of attention. Horus is depicted with the head of a falcon, because of the animal’s superior sight. They fly over everything in the sky, and they can see everything. Horus is alert, with his eyes open. (See also, the Egyptian eye). For example, if everything is going well (too much order), you might get bored or lazy, and fail to pay attention to potential warning signals that chaos is imminent. You need just the right amount of chaos to keep you alert and push yourself, but not so much that will paralyze you."

Depois, fui buscar um texto lido ao fim da tarde, "Why Companies Should Blow Up Best Practices":

"Relying on best practices does not guarantee future success. Today’s accelerated speed of change means that business leaders need to ditch old habits and bring a fresh perspective to their operations if they want to get to the top and stay there.
...
Many people or companies assume that best practices are good for a firm. Can you explain why that’s not always the case?
.
Geoff Tuff: No, it isn’t. There’s a good reason why best practices exist. For many, many years, people learned the lessons of their forebearers as the way to operate their businesses, whether they were generally in an industry or within any specific company. When things don’t change that quickly, when things change on a linear basis and you can predict the way that things are likely to turn out in the future, that’s completely fine. Doing the things that people have done before actually is a good way of being successful.
.
However, when change accelerates and we can no longer rely on the lessons of the past to do things well, that’s where best practices become really dangerous. [Moi ici: Recordar Zapatero e os outros] The great fallacy about best practices is that they can somehow create some competitive advantage. But if everyone is following best practices, there is no advantage there. Best practices don’t become best, they become average.
...
The No. 1 attribute is curiosity. The notion of beginner’s mind, which is something that’s spoken about in a lot of business circles these days, comes originally from Zen Buddhism. There’s a famous quote in Zen Mind, Beginner’s Mind by Shunryu Suzuki that’s something along the lines of, “In the beginner’s mind, there are many options. In the expert’s mind, there are few.” What we’re challenging companies to do today is not to bring an expert’s mind to the table, not to presume that we know the way things will operate, we know the way our markets will unfold, we know the way our competitors will react if we do certain things. Instead, look at things afresh, which is exactly what entrepreneurs do when they try to bring a new, disruptive business model to an industry."

"You don’t win by focusing on your competition" (parte II)

A propósito da parte I.

Esta mensagem sintoniza-se bem com a mensagem deste blogue:

“Finally, you need to let go of beliefs about your competitors that get in your way when it comes to selling effectively. Believing that your competitors lie and that their approach or pricing model is responsible for your losses is unhealthy. It is disempowering because it absolves you of the responsibility of knowing how to position yourself, your company, and your solution as creating the kind of differentiated, compelling value that would have beaten them. [Moi ici: Recordam o choradinho dos que se queixavam dos centros comerciais? E o choradinho dos que se queixavam dos chineses? E o choradinho dos que se queixavam dos ...  ] It’s your job to get the client to perceive the value you create, and it is that perception that allows you to win. If you hold yourself responsible for a loss, you can change your approach and improve. If you blame your competitors, you absolve yourself of responsibility—and you continue to lose. [Moi ici: Locus de controlo no interior!!! ]

You cannot do anything about your competitor. Nothing you say or do will make them change their behavior, their approach, or their pricing. Even when you start to win their clients by creating greater value, your competitors are likely to respond by doubling down on their existing practices, so your focus has to shift to improving how you sell.”

Excerto de: Anthony Iannarino. “Eat Their Lunch”. 

"You don’t win by focusing on your competition"

"Most of us work in mature industries that are overcrowded, where we are perceived as commodities (even when we are not), and where competition is ferocious. We work in industries where growth requires capturing market share from our competitors, and in many cases requires that we take their clients from them while they attempt to take our clients from us. How else do you grow by 12 percent in an industry that is growing by 2.7 percent annually?...
Your company goes out into the market to win new clients. You believe that what you sell—and how you sell it—is better than what your competitors sell. Your intention is to better serve those companies and customers that are not getting what they really want or need.
...
You don’t win by focusing on your competition. What makes you a dangerous competitor is how you play the game. Let’s start by eliminating the things that your competitors routinely do in an attempt to cause you problems and take your business, the things that make them weak competitors.
Some of your competitors compete on price alone, offering a poorer service than you do at a lower price point, while falsely promising the same results you can offer. They will win the most price-sensitive customers in the market, many of whom will live with their shortcomings for much longer than you might imagine. While these competitors usually win clients who perceive only the lowest price as value, they will occasionally win good clients, clients who will stick with them until you find a way to displace them. Know that you cannot do anything about a competitor with an irrational pricing structure. It doesn’t change your pricing model or strategy, so your only response should be to compete in a way that allows you to win with a higher price."

Trechos retirados de “Eat Their Lunch” de Anthony Iannarino.

2020 vai ser interessante

Há dias sugeria: "Agora imaginem que as exportações de automóveis se constipam..."

Hoje: "Protesto portuário ameaça fazer parar a Autoeuropa"

Esta semana:

• Economia alemã contrai pela primeira vez em três anos
• Itália rejeita exigências de Bruxelas e mantém Orçamento do Estado
• Aterrissagem suave ou pouso forçado? O que esperar da alta dos juros nos EUA
• Governo reduz défice à custa do PIB, juros e dividendos, diz Conselho das Finanças Públicas

"nearly impossible to predict"

"Understand and exploit the link between local behaviors and macro-outcomes. It is no surprise that the process of emergence in a complex adaptive system cannot be described precisely. It is for this reason that the outcomes of these systems are nearly impossible to predict—and that the mechanical management of them is therefore often unwise. For instance, no degree of micromanagement of researchers’ behaviors can guarantee higher productivity in R&D departments. Controlling lower-level processes, no matter how precisely, cannot guarantee innovation.
.
Nevertheless, this does not imply that there are no useful links to be exploited between local behaviors and macro-outcomes. Rather, it implies that business leaders should look for these links using the right statistical approaches."

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

"they want what it will do for them"

"People don’t want what you make; they want what it will do for them. They want the way it will make them feel. And there aren’t that many feelings to choose from.
.
In essence, most marketers deliver the same feelings. We just do it in different ways, with different services, products, and stories. And we do it for different people in different moments.
.
If you can bring someone belonging, connection, peace of mind, status, or one of the other most desired emotions, you’ve done something worthwhile. The thing you sell is simply a road to achieve those emotions, and we let everyone down when we focus on the tactics, not the outcomes. Who’s it for? and What’s it for? are the two questions that guide all of our decisions.
The good news is that we don’t need to rely on the shiniest, latest digital media shortcut — we have even more powerful, nuanced, and timeless tools at our disposal. We tell stories. Stories that resonate and hold up over time. Stories that are true, because we made them true with our actions and our products and our services."

Trecho retirado de "What Your Dog Knows About Marketing"

Mongo, tribos e política

As consequências políticas de Mongo aqui e em "Nascidos numa civilização, morreremos numa tribo?" e ainda em "What Gives the Logo Its Legs".

De hoje, este "Pegar a tourada pelos cornos" tem um lado interessante, como escreve Fukuyama, mostra como as tribos se dividem mesmo dentro daquilo que eram os partidos tradicionais.

Para reflexão

Para imaginar, para especular sobre as potenciais consequências e oportunidades em torno desta evolução:

"Wind and solar technologies have extended their lead over fossil fuel generation on costs of new plant, and are now as cheap, or even cheaper, than existing coal, gas and nuclear power plants – even compared to existing and fully-depreciated fossil fuel generators.
...
“As alternative energy costs continue to decline, storage remains the key to solving the problem of intermittency and we are beginning to see a clearer path forward for economic viability in storage technologies.”
...
since 2009 solar has fallen in cost by 88 per cent and wind has fallen by 69 per cent."

Trechos retirados de "Lazard hails “inflection point” as wind, solar costs beat new and old fossils"

Trabalhar? Até os burros trabalham, e muito!

A descrição do evento desenvolvido pela Lactaçores:

"Há menos de dois meses, a Lactaçores organizou um evento para promover o queijo São Jorge. E em que consistiu a coisa? Numa torrente de discursos (alguns penosos) de meia-dúzia de figuras das ilhas e do continente especialistas em repetir o óbvio (até o presidente da Câmara de Vila Franca de Xira falou, valha-nos Deus) e, em seguida, na degustação de queijos com compotas, bom pão e vinho do Pico (isso deve ter dado uma dor de cabeça ao chefe responsável pelo catering que nem imagino...).
.
Houve alguém para falar do terroir de São Jorge? Não. Houve alguém capaz de descrever, com prova didáctica, quais são os aromas e os sabores elementares de um queijo São Jorge? Não. Houve alguém para explicar como evolui o queijo ao longo dos anos? Não. Apareceu alguém para contar alguma história sobre este queijo com centenas de anos? Não. Algum chefe - estavam uns quantos presentes - fez sugestões sobre a degustação do queijo? Clássicas ou mais arrojadas? Nada."

Faz-me lembrar aqueles que desenvolvem acções para picar o cartão. Como não recordar os monumentos à treta: Trabalho, muito trabalho. Resultados? Vão no Batalha!

- Trabalhar? Até os burros trabalham, e muito!

 Trecho retirado de "Desabafos sobre o mundo do queijo"

"Uber", Mongo e a educação (parte II)

Parte I.

Mais uma peça para a construção de uma reflexão sobre o futuro da educação em Mongo em "Young Americans need to be taught skills, not handed credentials":

"One recent survey found that 43 per cent of college grads are underemployed.
.
This certainly mirrors what I hear from chief executives, many of whom tell me they cannot find the skills they need either at the top or the bottom of the socio-economic ladder. Ivy League colleges are great for those who can afford them but most education has become completely disconnected from the needs of both students and the labour market.
.
There are plenty of MBAs who can read a balance sheet but have neither operational nor soft skills. Four-year business administration graduates are settling for low wage gigs, while $20-an-hour manufacturing jobs go unfilled because employers can’t find anyone with vocational training.
.
Desperate companies are trying to plug the gap — telecoms group AT&T has set up an internal online course to train the 95 per cent of those in its own technology and services unit that have inadequate ability in Stem subjects — Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths. Walmart Academy has trained thousands of workers, including in basic skills they should have learnt in high schools.
...
Perhaps the most successful and scalable bridging of the skills and credentials gap thus far has been the P-Tech high school, initially started by IBM as a way to create a middle-market talent pool and now said to run with 500 other industry partners in 110 schools in eight states."

Voltaremos ao século XIX? A escola pública existe para servir os funcionários,

2/2 voltaremos a ver a genuína escola comercial oliveira martins no porto, suportada pelo sector e independente do ministério da educação?

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) October 6, 2015

"Então, veio-me à mente a conversa deste mês de Agosto com estudante da FCUP do curso de Ciências de Computação. Segundo ele, o curso foi objecto de reformulação há dois anos. No entanto, continua a não dar toda uma série de linguagens de programação que as empresas precisam mas que os professores não dominam, nem têm motivação para aprender (esse estudante passou parte do mês de Agosto a estudar programação para Android nos cursos da Udacity).
.
Se a FCUP optasse por contratar professores para darem aulas sobre essas linguagens os professores incumbentes sofreriam."

Daqui, de onde também recordo:

"Há uma frase feita qualquer acerca das organizações que se aplica como uma luva neste caso:
Quando a velocidade da mudança no exterior, no contexto, no entorno de uma organização, é muito maior que a velocidade a que essa organização consegue mudar... temos outra Torre de Babel:"

Acerca das exportações YTD - mês 9 (2018) (Parte II)

"Há um novo recorde de criação de empresas no horizonte - mas, pelo caminho, ficam cada vez mais empresas encerradas, assinala o Barómetro da Informa D&B no balanço que faz até Outubro.
.
Desde Abril de 2018 que o número de empresas a fechar as portas tem vindo a crescer. Nos primeiros dez meses do ano, Portugal assistiu ao encerramento de 14.322 empresas, um crescimento de 25,4% face ao período homólogo, "acompanhando assim o aumento do número de empresas no tecido empresarial ocorrido nos últimos anos", observa a Informa D&B.
.
Esta tendência é comum a todos os sectores, embora os serviços e o retalho se destaquem com o maior número de negócios a desaparecer. Nos sectores grossista e das indústrias transformadoras, que têm "elevada importância nas exportações", os encerramentos dispararam mais de 40%."

Relacionar com a Parte I e com a evolução subterrânea dos dados.

Trecho retirado de "Encerramentos de empresas aumentam há sete meses"

“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,”

A propósito de "More Factories Crop Up Closer to Customers":

"The largest share of manufacturers in at least a decade is spending to expand facilities, as companies look to build plants closer to their customers to offset record-high trucking costs and seek out pockets of available workers in a tight labor market.
.
Twelve percent of U.S. manufacturers that invested in added capacity at domestic factories in the second quarter did so through building expansions, according to the Census Bureau, the highest proportion in the decade that metric has been released. Manufacturing construction spending hit a 16-month high in September, according to the Census Bureau. Executives are making some of those investments in new factories to alleviate rising transport bills and supply-chain bottlenecks.
...
as the company seeks to make its products as close to customers as possible to speed up delivery times and cut logistics costs.
...
Companies building plants nearer to customers say the investment costs can be made up in faster turnaround times and increased orders.
...
Some companies also are trying to source more parts locally to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on some foreign goods, said executives at Flex Ltd., which makes and ships products—including shoes and personal electronics— for other companies.
.
“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,” said Tom Linton, Flex’s supply-chain officer.""

A mim ninguém me tira a ideia de que Mongo tem um dedo importante nesta evolução: proximidade, rapidez, flexibilidade, interacção, co-criação

Evolução do retalho

Interessantes estes números:

"The British high street suffered 2,692 store closures in the first half of 2018, according to analysis of the UK's top 500 towns compiled by the Local Data Company for PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). In contrast, there were 1,569 store openings, a decline of a third year-on-year.
.
The findings equate to an overall net loss of 1,123 stores disappearing from the UK’s streets during this period. (In the same period a year prior, there were 2,564 store closures to 2,342 openings — an overall net loss of 222 stores.) “Openings simply aren’t replacing closures at a fast enough rate,” said Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC.
.
10 percent of store closures were fashion retailers, making it the largest business category affected. According to PwC, 269 fashion stores closed in the first half of 2018, while 165 opened.
...
“The British high street is in urgent need of new ways of thinking and new forms of retail,”"

E o tema da economia das experiências:

"clothing retailers’ troubles reflected a shift in consumer preference for online shopping and at-home leisure, as well as a change in culture towards enjoying experiences rather than buying products. While the shift has resulted in an increase of “experiential” store openings such as beauty salons, it hasn’t been enough to offset the closures of more traditional businesses." 

Trechos retirados de "UK Retail Apocalypse Deepens"

BTW, pode ser coincidência, mas:

"As vendas anuais no retalho alemão baixaram de forma acentuada em setembro, ao contrário das expetativas dos economistas, que previam um crescimento. Os gastos dos consumidores alemães diminuíram cerca de 2,6% em setembro, quando comparado com igual período do ano anterior, revela o Gabinete Federal de Estatística (Destatis) alemão, sendo que se previa um crescimento de 0,9%. Esta foi a maior quebra desde junho de 2013.
...
Os sinais de quebra foram particularmente claros no sector têxtil e vestuário, onde foi registada uma descida de 9,6% nas vendas, enquanto na alimentação, bebidas e tabaco estas desceram 3%."

Acerca das exportações YTD - mês 9 (2018)

As exportações de "Mobiliário" entre Janeiro - Setembro de 2017 e Janeiro - Setembro 2018 cresceram 11 milhões, cerca de 1%, as exportações de Máquinas, ...

E queixava-me eu do panorama em Novembro de 2017, mal podia adivinhar esta desgraça:

Já olharam bem para a evolução?

Agora imaginem que as exportações de automóveis se constipam...