Uma mudança de paradigma

"Mass customization doesn't have to be a trend to offer an opportunity to differentiate yourself from competitors and boost margins. That's the point of the Bain study, which found that people are warming to the idea of customized products.
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Although fewer than 10 percent had actually purchased customized products or options, between 25 percent and 30 percent were interested. "While it is hard to gauge the overall potential of customization, if 25 percent of online sales of footwear were customized, that would equate to a market of $2 billion per year," Bain wrote.
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It's not as though only giants can offer customization. FashionPlaytes is a young business that lets girls order customized clothing. Any auto or motorcycle shop that builds custom vehicles would be a clear example.
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Customization is an old service that has a chance for some new appreciation. Customization can tie a customer closer to you and give them a reason not to do business with competitors who don't do things the customer's way."

Trechos retirados de "Mass Customization: Let Your Customers Have It Their Way"

"People don’t buy IoT"

Recomendo "People Don’t Buy IoT, They Buy a Solution to a Problem" à  atenção do Victor M.:

"Too many product teams and entrepreneurs think, “If I connect it, they will come.” The problem is that people don’t buy IoT, they buy a solution to a problem.
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The fact that we can connect any device to the Internet doesn’t mean we should. And if we’re not careful, we can fall into the trap of having technology looking for a problem, instead of starting with a problem and looking for the best way to solve it.
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People don’t buy IoT, they buy a solution to a problem.
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You see, Brita never set out to become an IoT company. They didn’t sit in their lab with IoT components trying to figure out what to build. Instead, they realized that IoT was a good tool to solve their user’s problem. Remember, people don’t buy IoT, they buy a solution to a problem.
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So start by understanding your customer’s needs [Moi ici: O job to be done] and then choose the best tool for the job. It might be IoT and it might not. And figuring that out early on will save you a lot of time and money."

Surpreso explica a surpreso

A propósito de "Têxtil português conta história de sucesso ao FMI" onde se pode ler:

"“foi uma conversa simpática, na qual o FMI se mostrou muito interessado e surpreso por uma indústria dita tradicional ser hoje uma indústria moderna, incorporando tecnologia, design e serviço e aumentando a sua presença global“.
...
Os responsáveis pelo setor têxtil aproveitaram a ocasião para demonstrar como um setor condenado há uma década exibe hoje uma dinâmica renovada e aparece como exemplo para outros setores na economia tendo, em 2016, ultrapassado a fasquia dos cinco mil milhões de euros em exportações.
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A ATP destacou ainda, na sua apresentação, a mudança de paradigma do setor baseando-se a competição no valor e não no preço, o que implicou por parte do setor uma aposta no design, na moda, na tecnologia, na inovação e no serviço. E também um investimento em missões internacionais e na participação nalgumas das mais importantes feiras do setor."

Não deixo de enquadrar esta surpresa do FMI no que relato aqui há anos e anos como sendo a mentalidade da tríade, baseada no século XX: eficiência, escala, volume, custo.

E recordando aquele título "Sei o que fizeste no Verão passado" viajo até 2010 e a "Arrepiante". Não foi só o FMI que ficou surpreso, foi a própria cúpula da ATP uma vez que a revolução foi bottom-up e começou pelas empresas mais pequenas.

A propósito deste exemplo usado pela ATP:

"Isabel Furtado fez inclusivamente uma apresentação do grupo TMG, especialmente focada na mudança de uma empresa têxtil convencional para uma altamente tecnológica."

Recordo este postal escrito num parque de campismo no Gerês "Exemplo da diversidade intra-sectorial".

A TMG que apresentaram ao FMI não tem nada a ver com o têxtil... foi onde tive o meu primeiro emprego.

Curiosidade do dia

O amigo Aranha mandou-me esta!

Lembrei-me logo do calvário que ele viveu por causa da actuação desta Empresa na Hora.

Tecnologia e salários

Há dias chamei a atenção para isto:

Pede-se aos teóricos sem skin in the game que olhem para as fotos da realidade. Por favor. Veja os empregos criados com curso superior pic.twitter.com/HTL4SdaRr2

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) June 21, 2017

Agora encontro:

"even more critically, the enabling technology view implies that any improvement in technology should lead to higher wages for all types of workers. But wage declines for low-education workers have been the norm not the exception over the past 30 years in the US labor market. [Moi ici: Acredito que grande parte desta tendência deveu-se à deslocalização?] In particular, the real wages of workers with less high school, high school or some college have all fallen sharply since the early 1970s. The inability of this conical framework to account for the pervasive phenomenon of declining real wages of certain groups of workers is one of its most jarring shortcomings.
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In particular, wages at the bottom, median and the top move very differently over different time periods. Most notably, in contrast with simple skill-biased technological change view, we do not see an opening of the gap between median and bottom wages.
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there is an extended period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s where wages at the bottom are increasing more rapidly than wages in the middle of the distribution.
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In contrast to a view based on enabling technologies helping the most highly skilled workers, we see rapid employment growth at the bottom of the wage distribution both in the 1990s and 2000s. The picture that emerges is thus one in which the economy is generating considerably more employment in lower- paid occupations than in occupations in the middle of the wage distribution.
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Finally, we can also verify that this is not just a US phenomenon. The middle-paying occupations have contracted in every European country between 1993 and 2006, strongly suggesting that the employment patterns we are witnessing in the United States are due to common technological trends rather than idiosyncratic US factors.
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In contrast to the standard framework based on enabling technologies, replacing technologies can reduce wages. This contrasts with the predictions of the canonical model we discussed in the previous section. The key is the difference between enabling and replacing technologies.
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• Even with a single type of labor competing against technology or capital, a set of tasks shifting from labor to capital can reduce wages. This effect is further strengthened if there are multiple types of labor, and new technologies directly take away some of the tasks performed by a specific type of labor (for example, semi-skilled manufacturing workers or operators).
• For the same reasons as articulated in the previous bullet point, replacing technologies displace workers, and may cause unemployment.
• If new technologies replace tasks in the middle of the pay distribution, they will cause polarization of employment. Intuitively, these new technologies will take away the middle paying occupations, and thus the overall wage distribution will have a smaller, in some sense ‘hollowed’ middle, causing wage polarization. Interestingly, because workers dislocated by technology from the middle of the pay distribution will compete with others, changes in employment structure may be divorced from wage growth patterns. As a result, we may expect to find faster growth of employment in lower- paying occupations as those dislocated by technology also seek employment in these occupations, which is confirmed by the changes in employment structure shown in the figure below, but this does not necessarily imply faster wage growth in these expanding occupations."

Trechos retirados de "Daron Acemoglu on: Will robots take our jobs?"

Fiquei com curiosidade ...

Ao ler "Inovafil apresenta Nidyarn" fiquei a pensar sobretudo nas implicações deste trecho:

"«A estratégia é não sermos só moda, é passarmos também a ser desporto e técnicos»"

Despedi-me do meu primeiro emprego, trabalho que adorava pois tinha a melhor tarefa do mundo, engenheiro de produto, porque estava mergulhado no mundo técnico (fornecer a VW, super racional) e fui transferido do dia para a noite para o mundo da moda (o mundo do toque, do brilho, da subjectividade).

Fiquei com curiosidade em saber o que é que a Inovafil vai fazer a nível a nível do lado direito do canvas de Osterwalder:

A proposta de valor vai ser diferente porque o job to be done vai ser diferente. Os clientes-alvo procuram e valorizam coisas diferentes, têm mindsets diferentes, estão em ecossistemas diferentes, têm ritmos diferentes, vão a feiras diferentes, estão susceptíveis a coisas diferentes, visitam prateleiras diferentes.

Que alterações vão fazer a nível comercial?

Vão ter pessoas diferentes a fazer o desenvolvimento para cada área do negócio ou vão ter uma só?

"People want a story behind what they buy"

A propósito de "Yoplait Learns to Manufacture Authenticity to Go With Its Yogurt" saliento:

"“For consumers today, food isn’t just about sustenance, it’s about an experience,” said Darren Seifer, a food analyst at the NPD Group, a market research company. “People want a story behind what they buy. That’s why craft beers and small organics are doing so well. They’re selling authenticity. The big companies want that.”
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But the most powerful story, according to current and former Yoplait executives who described their research, was that consumers simply thought Chobani was cool. It was easier to believe it was authentic and healthy because it had an exotic name, a founder who embodied rags-to-riches success and lots of buzz.
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Executives needed to study the science of manufacturing genuineness.
So they began passing among themselves studies showing that people get a neurological rush when they buy something they believe is authentic, like clothing made by hand instead of a machine. But to make authenticity seem genuine, the research indicated, products needed some kind of story."

• Acerca do poder da autenticidade 
• Acerca do poder da autenticidade 

A mecânica newtoniana não serve para a economia (parte II)

Para reflexão, recomendo a leitura de "The Seattle Minimum Wage Study":

"This paper not only makes numerous valuable contributions to the economics literature, but should give serious pause to minimum wage advocates. Of course, that’s not what’s happening, to the extent that the mayor of Seattle commissioned *another* study, by an advocacy group at Berkeley whose previous work on the minimum wage is so consistently one-sided that you can set your watch by it, that unsurprisingly finds no effect. They deliberately timed its release for several days before this paper came out, and I find that whole affair abhorrent. Seattle politicians are so unwilling to accept reality that they’ll undermine their own researchers and waste taxpayer dollars on what is barely a cut above propaganda.
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I don’t envy the backlash this team is going to face for daring to present results that will be seen as heresy. I know that so many people just desperately want to believe that the minimum wage is a free lunch. It’s not. These job losses will only get worse as the minimum wage climbs higher, and this team is working on linking to demographic data to examine who the losers from this policy are. I fully expect that these losses are borne most heavily by low-income and minority households."

Recordo este postal "Para reflexão" sobre como actuam as empresas que defendem o aumento do salário mínimo.

Pessoalmente sou contra a existência de salário mínimo porque a economia é muito heterogénea. Um salário mínimo de 600€ é aceitável em Lisboa e se calhar mortífero em Pinhel.

Ainda acerca destes estudos quero deixar um reparo: "A mecânica newtoniana não serve para a economia"

A economia é situacional. Aquilo que funciona hoje, aquilo que se conclui hoje, deixa de funcionar amanhã, deixa de se concluir amanhã. Tudo depende do momento.

Comparar este momento actual "Juntar as peças" com este outro momento de 2009 "Acham isto normal? Ou a inconsistência estratégica! Ou jogar bilhador como um amador!"

BTW, já depois de escrito este texto encontrei isto "A Higher Minimum Wage Is Not Doing The Bad Things Critics Said It Would Do"

Curiosidade do dia

Fonte.

Originação de valor vs valor acrescentado

"What Is Value Creation and How Is It Different?Take a look at this table to better understand the differences between value, added value and created value. Give yourself and your company a quick evaluation – what value are you delivering and which type of value could you increase?"

Trecho e imagem retirada de "What Is Value Creation? Is It Just another Name for Added Value?"

Para reflexão

Imagem retirada de "White Space Revisited: Creating Value through Process"

SDCA e PDCA

Encontrei este esquema nos slides de uma multinacional. O clássico PDCA.

Olhei para aquela caixa "Improvements" no lugar do "Act" e pensei logo o quanto prefiro antes o CAPD:

• PDCA vs CAPD

Check - Avaliar o desempenho
Act - Decidir o que melhorar
Plan - Planear o que experimentar
Do - Realizar a experiência

Mas melhor ainda a proposta de Shoji Shiba, relacionar o SDCA com o PDCA:

Standard - Ter um padrão de operação
Do - Actuar de acordo com o standard
Check - Avaliar o desempenho
Act - Decidir o que melhorar
Plan - Planear o que experimentar
Do - Realizar a experiência
Check - Avaliar o desempenho
Act - Actualizar o standard


Faz muito mais sentido.

• Não-conformidades, acções correctivas e preventivas (Dezembro de 2007)
• Exemplo de acção preventiva (parte IX) (Maio de 2009)

Juntar as peças

Há umas pessoas que defendiam défices mais elevados ao mesmo tempo que defendiam níveis de dívida mais baixos sem perceberem a contradição. Lembro-me do grande Ortega y Gasset falar dos que lançam ideias sem a capacidade de idear, quando deparo com textos escritos por quem não tem capacidade de reflectir nas incoerências que transmite.

Ontem passei-me quando confrontei o título deste artigo, "Falta mão de obra ao líder das exportações nacionais", com uma boa parte do seu conteúdo:

"o setor metalúrgico assume-se como o grande setor da economia portuguesa. Entre os maiores problemas está a falta de mão-de-obra qualificada.
...
Por falar em estabilidade, o que pensa o presidente dos metalúrgicos sobre a subida do salário mínimo?
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Terá reflexos na indústria? Aníbal Campos sublinha que “as pequenas e médias empresas são afetadas pela subida do salário mínimo, mas há também empresas estrangeiras que estão em Portugal e que vão ser afetadas”. Sobretudo se a comparação for feita “com o que se passa na antiga cortina de ferro que tem salários muito mais baixos”. Ainda assim o presidente da principal associação do setor refere que está “à vontade” porque para além da sua empresa Silampos “não praticar salários mínimos”, também na AIMMAP, desde que está à frente da associação, “o salário do setor sempre foi superior ao mínimo nacional”. Uma regalia que, adianta, é dada “em troca de outras condições, como são a flexibilidade e o banco de horas”.
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“Andamos sempre à frente do salário mínimo, mas esta subida é considerável não podemos ir à frente”. E deixa o alerta: “Se não houver bom senso isto vai ter consequências para a economia”."

E segue-se um trecho extenso sobre a falta de mão-de-obra no sector:

"“O setor não tem número de formandos necessários e isto é uma tragédia e com a taxa de desemprego a baixar, este é um problema que se vai agudizar”, sublinha." 

E a jornalista não juntou as peças?

Como é que é a curva da oferta e da procura?

Se o sector está a bombar, se a procura por mão-de-obra está a crescer e se a oferta de mão-de-obra é insuficiente... o que manda é o mercado, de nada adianta estar preocupado com o salário mínimo.

Ecossistemas em economia

Há mais de 10 anos, em "Subir na escala de valor" usei aqui no blogue pela primeira vez a palavra ecossistema aplicada a uma empresa e às partes interessadas com que interage.

Desde então já a usei o marcador "ecossistema" quase 200 vezes.

Ultimamente comecei a encontrar textos interessantes sobre a vantagem de pensar na maximização do valor criado a nível de ecossistema:

• "The market is a goal collective"
• Propostas de valor, ecossistemas e pivôs
• Plataformas e ecossistemas

Esta semana, parece que a palavra ecossistema está a pegar:

• Introducing Ecosystem Thinking
• What Exactly Do We Mean by Systems?

Como criar valor?

Há pouco tempo eliminei do meu arquivo um artigo sobre o que se pode fazer com o Big Data relativamente à publicidade. Essa era a minha grande crítica ao artigo, quando se escreve sobre Big Data, escreve-se quase sempre como refere este título "Use Big Data to Create Value for Customers, Not Just Target Them".

Há tempos numa empresa dei comigo a ouvir alguém a sugerir como usar o Big Data para criar valor para um cliente, para o ajudar a ganhar dinheiro, para o ajudar na sua relação com os seus clientes:

"in the rush to uncover and target the next transaction, many industries are quickly coming up against a disquieting reality: Winning the next transaction eventually yields only short term tactical advantage, and it overlooks one big and inevitable outcome. When every competitor becomes equally good at predicting each customer’s next purchase, marketers will inevitably compete away their profits from that marginal transaction. This unwinnable short-term arms race ultimately leads to an equalization of competitors in the medium to long term. There is no sustainable competitive advantage in chasing the next buy.
...
To build lasting advantage, marketing programs that leverage big data need to turn to more strategic questions about longer term customer stickiness, loyalty, and relationships. The questions that need to be asked of big data are not just what will trigger the next purchase, but what will get this customer to remain loyal; not just what price the customer is willing pay for the next transaction, but what will be the customer’s life-time value; and not just what will get customers to switch in from a competitor, but what will prevent them from switching out when a competitor offers a better price.
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The answers to these more strategic questions reside in using big data differently. Rather than only asking how we can use data to better target customers, we need to ask how big data creates value for customers. That is, we need to shift from asking what big data can do for us, to what it can do for customers.
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Every company should ask three questions to examine how its big data can create customer value:
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What types of information will help my customers reduce their costs or risks?
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What type of information is currently widely dispersed, but would yield new insight if aggregated?
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Is there diversity and variance among my customers such that they will benefit from aggregating others’ data with theirs?"

Um desafio que muitas mais empresas deviam assumir de forma deliberada: como criar valor?

JTBD vs cliente vs produto

Algo que julgo que já aqui se abordou no blogue numa perspectiva próxima: Em vez de identificar os clientes-alvo, identificar o job to be done.

"What’s wrong with product managers? The word “product” gives away the problem. The product manager role is anchored in the product–which in our opinion contributes to a myopic view of the market. Since a primary function of the company is innovation, this key role should have a broader orientation than just the company’s products (see our prior article on this). This role should take on a market perspective that fosters new thinking, discovery and development that extends well beyond today’s products. To revolutionize this important role, we believe it should be anchored on the customer’s “job-to-be-done”, not the product.
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A company that is focused on the customer’s job-to-be-done instead of the company’s products is much more likely to take a broader view of the market. This would include an expanded view of the competition and potential opportunities for growth.
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A traditional product manager has a solid understanding of the products they create and sell. Job Managers, on the other hand, have an intimate knowledge of their customer’s job-to-be-done and the metrics that customers use to measure success when getting the job done."

Trechos retirados de "Product Managers Are Obsolete; Focus on the Job-to-be-Done"

Objectivos e a lavagem das mãos

Gosto destas relações, "Reset your brain by washing your hands":

"Researchers at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management conducted four experiments that showed that when participants cleansed their hands with a wipe, they viewed the previous goals they made as less important. However, they tended to view the goals they made AFTER cleansing as more important.
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That’s because cleansing actually helps people psychologically separate themselves from previous ideas and goals, Dong explained."

Recordar:

• A última preparação do trabalho
• Acerca das infecções hospitalares 
• Outro tipo de oração, e o mesmo resultado

Curiosidade do dia

"Nações menos infantis não descansariam até varrer os demagogos que celebram glórias imaginárias e fintam as desgraças autênticas. Portugal, não. Portugal respeita os mortos, leia-se espera que os vivos não perturbem a “estabilidade”. Portugal observa prioridades, leia-se deixa arrefecer o assunto. Portugal não cede à baixa política, leia-se permite a impunidade geral. Portugal está unido, leia-se criou-se um ambiente hostil a questões desagradáveis. Portugal, repete-se, é uma nação muito forte, leia-se um recreio de oportunistas, desnorteados ao primeiro assomo da realidade."

Trecho retirado de "Morrer entre brutos é triste"

Para reflexão

Um texto dedicado a muita gente, "Austerity is dead. Long live austerity":

"Britain can choose to raise spending, but that will mean higher taxes.
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The British public is tired of austerity. So even supporters of the government have concluded from the unexpected success of Jeremy Corbyn’s new old Labour, which promised much higher spending and fiscal deficits than the Conservatives in last week’s general election But is it safe to give the public what it wants? Brexit is likely to bring economic disappointment. To add fiscal destabilisation to the mix would seem highly unwise.
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The UK will remain an open trading economy dependent on the confidence of strangers, as investors and workers. It would be idiotic to jeopardise its reputation for sound management further in return for a brief high of larger fiscal deficits and debt. Yet this does not rule out different choices over revenue and spending. That is perfectly legitimate.
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It makes sense to run a still smaller deficit when debt is high and the economy is close to full employment. The aim would be to insure against any shocks that lie ahead, by reducing the debt ratio.
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Furthermore, note that taxes will probably have to rise to mitigate the effects on public services of an ageing population.
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What is needed is honesty: the country can choose to raise spending. But, if it wants to run a sound fiscal policy, this will mean substantially higher taxes. Labour has broken the taboo on the latter. But it has dishonestly suggested that a substantial increase in spending can be financed solely at the expense of the rich and corrupt. Yet even taxes on corporations do not fall solely, or even mainly, on the rich.
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So should austerity be over? If we mean that it is safe to leave the fiscal deficit where it is, the answer is no. If we mean that it is possible to avoid lowering the share of public spending in GDP any further, the answer is yes. The argument that the UK has chronically underfunded public services is respectable. But higher spending means higher taxes. That additional taxation also needs to be well targeted and designed. The extra money raised needs to be well spent, too. Otherwise, the effort would be a huge waste. That would be quite senseless."

 Recordar "Agora é que vão começar as decisões políticas"

Quando poupar é pecado

Ler "The Fallacy of Cost Savings":

"The direct way to reduce costs is not very often the best choice when what you cut costs of things that are strategic, and where reducing costs actually takes money out of the outcomes you are trying to improve.
...
By spending more on one line, you can drive down costs on other lines. For this to be true, you must be able to justify the delta between your price and the price your prospective client is paying now—and you have to convince them that price and cost are different, and that lowering the price often has the opposite effect of what they’re trying to accomplish."

Muitas PME mudaram, deixaram de seguir a via do preço mais baixo mas nem todas prepararam os seus comerciais para a necessidade de vender de outra forma.

Do lado dos compradores (no B2B) é aquilo que há anos classifico como: o pecado de poupar:

"don’t go after potential cost savings that might reduce a product’s attractiveness (Moi ici: Pois, a minha guerra contra o eficientismo puro e duro... quando identificamos as actividades críticas de uma empresa em que o negócio não é o preço mais baixo e digo "Poupar nestas actividades é pecado!") "(Novembro de 2012)