Por que será que o presidente da CIP está tão atento ao que se passa no Egipto que faz declarações deste tipo "António Saraiva: Alterações no canal do Suez podem favorecer Portugal"?
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Imaginem que o Canal do Suez era cortado...
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Será que isso não iria afectar o local de produção? Acreditam que só iria afectar o local de embarque ou desembarque de mercadorias?
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Sem Canal do Suez e com o Canal do Panamá sobre-lotado até 2015(?) quantos dias mais é que dura uma viagem que contorne a África ou a América do Sul?
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Porque será então que este cenário é lançado?
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Quem lucraria directamente com o aumento do tráfego marítimo via Sines?
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Triste é lançar este cenário por causa de um acontecimento que ocupa o prime-time dos media e, estar cego ao que está a acontecer sorrateiramente, invisivelmente...
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Continua.
sábado, fevereiro 05, 2011
Diversidade e complexidade
"Diversity and complexity could also be mutually reinforcing. As species diversity increases, niches become more complex (because niches are partly defined by existing species). The more complex niches are then filled by more complex organisms, which further increases niche complexity, and so on (Waddington 1969).
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Trecho retirado de "Biology’s First Law The Tendency for Diversity and Complexity to Increase in Evolutionary Systems" de Daniel W. McShea e Robert N. Brandon.
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Não esquecer o paralelismo entre a biologia e a economia
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Trecho retirado de "Biology’s First Law The Tendency for Diversity and Complexity to Increase in Evolutionary Systems" de Daniel W. McShea e Robert N. Brandon.
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Não esquecer o paralelismo entre a biologia e a economia
Somos todos alemães (parte XI)
É um título que já é um clássico deste blogue:
Finalmente o mainstream começa a alinhar-se por este blogue (eheheh presunção):
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"Bruxelas: Alemanha é o modelo a seguir por todos os países do euro":
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"Comissário fez eco das palavras de Angela Merkel, que quer moldar a Zona Euro à semelhança da maior e mais resistente economia da Europa"
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Vai ser bonito... MEDO!!!!
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As baratas tontas dos governos a querer impor mudanças top-down... quando o que é preciso é, empresa a empresa, fazer a transformação bottom-up.
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"Comissário fez eco das palavras de Angela Merkel, que quer moldar a Zona Euro à semelhança da maior e mais resistente economia da Europa"
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Vai ser bonito... MEDO!!!!
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As baratas tontas dos governos a querer impor mudanças top-down... quando o que é preciso é, empresa a empresa, fazer a transformação bottom-up.
sexta-feira, fevereiro 04, 2011
Não saltar para a solução
Actualmente ando a desenvolver dois projectos de melhoria do desempenho, em duas empresas distintas, em sectores distintos, para reduzir a frequência com que alguns "defeitos" ou falhas organizacionais ocorrem. A metodologia seguida respeita estas etapas.
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No final da etapa 1, com os dados recolhidos e tratados, sente-se sempre uma vontade tremenda em saltar para a etapa 3. É preciso seguir uma disciplina para passar pela etapa 2.
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Tim Kastelle explica bem o fenómeno em "The Problem With Solutions"
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"When trying to solve a problem, often the best thing to do is to leave the question open for a while. This is tough, because most people have a natural tendency to want to solve the problem as quickly as possible.
...
The problem with jumping straight to answers is that you reduce the amount of effort put into the first step, idea generation, and you put no time at all into the second step – experimenting, thinking and prototyping.
When these two steps aren’t fully explored, you end up putting all of your effort into developing conclusions and planning actions for only one answer. You may do this extremely well, but the problem is that it might not be the best answer.
People like jumping to answers because it reduces uncertainty. When you are expanding the range of options to consider, and then test out these ideas, you are increasing ambiguity. This makes many people uncomfortable.
But if you’re disciplined enough to be able to live with that ambiguity for a while, you usually end up with a better answer to your problem."
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Excelente conselho!!!
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A realização da etapa 2 é fundamental para evitar saltar para o que está mais à mão mas não é, necessariamente, a solução do nosso desafio. Por isso é que as empresas têm tantos problemas crónicos que demoram anos a resolver... quando resolvem.
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No final da etapa 1, com os dados recolhidos e tratados, sente-se sempre uma vontade tremenda em saltar para a etapa 3. É preciso seguir uma disciplina para passar pela etapa 2.
.
Tim Kastelle explica bem o fenómeno em "The Problem With Solutions"
.
"When trying to solve a problem, often the best thing to do is to leave the question open for a while. This is tough, because most people have a natural tendency to want to solve the problem as quickly as possible.
...
The problem with jumping straight to answers is that you reduce the amount of effort put into the first step, idea generation, and you put no time at all into the second step – experimenting, thinking and prototyping.
When these two steps aren’t fully explored, you end up putting all of your effort into developing conclusions and planning actions for only one answer. You may do this extremely well, but the problem is that it might not be the best answer.
People like jumping to answers because it reduces uncertainty. When you are expanding the range of options to consider, and then test out these ideas, you are increasing ambiguity. This makes many people uncomfortable.
But if you’re disciplined enough to be able to live with that ambiguity for a while, you usually end up with a better answer to your problem."
.
Excelente conselho!!!
.
A realização da etapa 2 é fundamental para evitar saltar para o que está mais à mão mas não é, necessariamente, a solução do nosso desafio. Por isso é que as empresas têm tantos problemas crónicos que demoram anos a resolver... quando resolvem.
Paixão e relações amorosas
É um dos meus temas preferidos, um tema que nenhum livro me ensinou, antes resultou da observação em primeira mão: o amor, as relações amorosas, a paixão que se desenvolve entre uma empresa e os seus clientes, fornecedores e produtos.
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Pois bem, mais um autor, Tom Asacker, aborda o tema "Stop marketing and selling":
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"I've worked with hundreds of sales and marketing professionals during my career, and I've had client relationships with hundreds more. I've observed some of the best (my father and brother, to name two) and some of the worst (the folks at my cable company come to mind). And I've finally come to understand and appreciate the one trait that separates the successful and confident ones from the also-rans.
No, it's not superior brainpower, discipline, or a mega-memory. And no, it's not the all-consuming desire for riches or for trips to tropical island resorts. It's not even brilliant copy, a killer USP, or the lowest prices.
It's passion. Passion for their people, products, and services. Passion for their customers, for their experiences, concerns, and dreams. A passionate belief in their view of the world and their unique place in it. A passion to really matter, to make a difference."
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Pois bem, mais um autor, Tom Asacker, aborda o tema "Stop marketing and selling":
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"I've worked with hundreds of sales and marketing professionals during my career, and I've had client relationships with hundreds more. I've observed some of the best (my father and brother, to name two) and some of the worst (the folks at my cable company come to mind). And I've finally come to understand and appreciate the one trait that separates the successful and confident ones from the also-rans.
No, it's not superior brainpower, discipline, or a mega-memory. And no, it's not the all-consuming desire for riches or for trips to tropical island resorts. It's not even brilliant copy, a killer USP, or the lowest prices.
It's passion. Passion for their people, products, and services. Passion for their customers, for their experiences, concerns, and dreams. A passionate belief in their view of the world and their unique place in it. A passion to really matter, to make a difference."
Coisas sem estatuto
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa e outras cabeças do Direito em Portugal andam tão ocupadas a pensar sobre o futuro da TAP e do Porto de Sines que não têm tempo para as coisas reles e banais do dia-a-dia.
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Coisas, como disse o defensor particular de Sócrates, sem estatuto.
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Coisas, como disse o defensor particular de Sócrates, sem estatuto.
Um símbolo
"Cerca de 125 restaurantes fecham por mês"
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Símbolo da revolução que precisa de ocorrer no sector de bens não-transaccionáveis, para que mais recursos sejam canalizados para os sectores transaccionáveis.
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Símbolo da revolução que precisa de ocorrer no sector de bens não-transaccionáveis, para que mais recursos sejam canalizados para os sectores transaccionáveis.
quinta-feira, fevereiro 03, 2011
Falar claro - precisa-se
Cuidado com as generalizações nacionais
Chuck Blakeman, no seu livro "Making Money Is Killing Your Business" faz o retrato de 3 tipos de proprietários de empresas. Um que me chamou logo a atenção foi o daqueles empresários focados no seu produto ou serviço.
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Há o costume de dizer que os empresários portugueses são maus, são os piores do mundo... afirmações feitas por quem está longe de lidar com eles e, mais ainda, de lidar com os outros. Este texto que se segue, foi escrito com base na experiência do autor ao trabalhar com empresários americanos.
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"Product-Focused Owner: The Craftperson
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… lives in a world of urgency and “today” and never has time to look back or forward because today is so pressing. (Moi ici: Assim, talvez Arroja exagere ao generalizar, com base em certas personagens que conhece, que todos os portugueses sejam escravos do agora, por serem portugueses ou por serem produtos de uma cultura católica) The Tyranny of the Urgent defines her lifestyle, and she has no time for the Priority of the Important because she can’t see how it will help her make any money today.
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Business Owners who are Product Focused are passionate (Moi ici: Adoptei uma máxima que descobri há poucos meses: a paixão numa empresa é inversamente proporcional à sua dimensão) about the product or service they provide because they are experts, professionals, craftspeople, artist and artisans; implementers, producers, doers, and finishers. They like being tactical, on the ground, and getting things done. They take great pride in the product or service they offer.
…
Passion for their craft is what drives them to build their business. Their creative juices are focused on developing their expertise or constantly improving their product. They are focused on the present, what needs to be done today, and on perfecting their craft. Product Focused owners love to get personally involved in the system and have difficulty giving production over to employees who, in the craftsperson’s opinion, might lower the quality. They are much more passionate about their product or service than about what the market wants: “I make a great chair, somebody ought to buy it.” Customers can get in the way because they want to modify the product or service.
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The Product Focused owner can’t see the need to waste time thinking about the future or the past. They act on what needs to be done today. Spending time building good processes that others could follow is a waste of time. The Product Focused owner acts quickly on tactical things without needing a lot of information or planning. They don’t expend much energy on “strategic” planning or action. This is a great asset in getting things done on a day-to-day basis, but doesn’t set them up for future success.
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“The product or service itself is so great that customers will simply flock to my door.” This staunch product focus keeps them receiving good feedback from customers about how to make it more sellable. This focus would feel too compromising to the Product Focused owner. Therefore, if they do any marketing at all, it is Product Focused instead of Market Focused.
And they make the fatal flaw of wanting to focus on how great their chair-making abilities are instead of the result it brings the customer.
The product focus can also keep them from planning appropriately for the future, for downturns or growth, or for obsolescence.
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It’s no surprise that the overwhelming majority of all businesses are started, grown, and run by Product Focused owners. They have fewer failures than Market Focused or Systems Focused owners because they get production up and running quickly. But in the long run, they have more failures down the road than System Focused owners because they don’t get good processes in place to support growth.”
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Isto faz-me lembrar um resultado, muito divulgado por Kaplan e Norton, sobre o desempenho das equipas de gestão norte-americanas: mais de 85% das equipas directivas gasta menos de uma hora por mês a discutir a estratégia da empresa.
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Isto faz-me lembrar um resultado, muito divulgado por Kaplan e Norton, sobre o desempenho das equipas de gestão norte-americanas: mais de 85% das equipas directivas gasta menos de uma hora por mês a discutir a estratégia da empresa.
quarta-feira, fevereiro 02, 2011
Mais de 100 anos?
Há tempos, neste postal, escrevi:
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"Pessoalmente, espero nunca me reformar! Assumo-o, gosto, adoro aquilo que faço. E quanto mais anos passam, mais aprendo, mais experiências me habilitam a ser melhor no que faço, mais experiências me ensinam a ser mais flexível e a não seguir nenhum livro."
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Pois bem, "Age at retirement and long term survival of an industrial population: prospective cohort study" de Shan P Tsai, Judy K Wendt, Robin P Donnelly, Geert de Jong, and Farah S Ahmed, publicado no British Medical Journal:
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"Results: Subjects who retired early at 55 and who were still alive at 65 had a significantly higher mortality than those who retired at 65 (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.73). Mortality was also significantly higher for subjects in the first 10 years after retirement at 55 compared with those who continued working (1.89, 1.58 to 2.27). After adjustment, mortality was similar between those who retired at 60 and those who retired at 65 (1.06, 0.92 to 1.22). Mortality did not differ for the first five years after retirement at 60 compared with continuing work at 60 (1.04, 0.82 to 1.31).
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Conclusions Retiring early at 55 or 60 was not associated with better survival than retiring at 65 in a cohort of past employees of the petrochemical industry. Mortality was higher in employees who retired at 55 than in those who continued working."
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Lá vou ter de viver para lá dos 100 anos...
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"Pessoalmente, espero nunca me reformar! Assumo-o, gosto, adoro aquilo que faço. E quanto mais anos passam, mais aprendo, mais experiências me habilitam a ser melhor no que faço, mais experiências me ensinam a ser mais flexível e a não seguir nenhum livro."
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Pois bem, "Age at retirement and long term survival of an industrial population: prospective cohort study" de Shan P Tsai, Judy K Wendt, Robin P Donnelly, Geert de Jong, and Farah S Ahmed, publicado no British Medical Journal:
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"Results: Subjects who retired early at 55 and who were still alive at 65 had a significantly higher mortality than those who retired at 65 (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.73). Mortality was also significantly higher for subjects in the first 10 years after retirement at 55 compared with those who continued working (1.89, 1.58 to 2.27). After adjustment, mortality was similar between those who retired at 60 and those who retired at 65 (1.06, 0.92 to 1.22). Mortality did not differ for the first five years after retirement at 60 compared with continuing work at 60 (1.04, 0.82 to 1.31).
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Conclusions Retiring early at 55 or 60 was not associated with better survival than retiring at 65 in a cohort of past employees of the petrochemical industry. Mortality was higher in employees who retired at 55 than in those who continued working."
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Lá vou ter de viver para lá dos 100 anos...
O poder do "porquê?"
"As responsible business owners, we invest a lot of time answering the “what” question. What will I sell? What should my price be? What kind of marketing should I do?
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We find “how” intriguing as well – How will I find clients? How will I make ends meet this month? And we’re even okay with “who” (who is my ideal client) or “where” (where do I locate, advertise, network, etc.?).
All of these questions – who, what, where and how can be just plain fun to play around with. Why? (hint – this is a pretty important question) – Because they are largely theoretical questions. I can answer ALL of them brilliantly and do absolutely nothing – frozen in my tracks but feeling as if I’ve made great progress. But we’re really just playing office again. Merely doing complex (but easy) things that make us feel important and impress others.
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The 2nd most important question in business (see last week’s post) is “when”. We avoid it like the plague because when we attach it to all the other questions (who, what, where, and how), we suddenly lose control of our future. Instead of managing our plans, we are now managed by our Plan, required to take action and move forward when we’d rather think about it and play office some more.
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But the biggest, most important question in business is avoided even more then “when”. And it’s the most important question for determining our success.
Why?"
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Texto de Chuck Blakeman retirado de "Making Money is Killing Your Business"
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We find “how” intriguing as well – How will I find clients? How will I make ends meet this month? And we’re even okay with “who” (who is my ideal client) or “where” (where do I locate, advertise, network, etc.?).
All of these questions – who, what, where and how can be just plain fun to play around with. Why? (hint – this is a pretty important question) – Because they are largely theoretical questions. I can answer ALL of them brilliantly and do absolutely nothing – frozen in my tracks but feeling as if I’ve made great progress. But we’re really just playing office again. Merely doing complex (but easy) things that make us feel important and impress others.
.
The 2nd most important question in business (see last week’s post) is “when”. We avoid it like the plague because when we attach it to all the other questions (who, what, where, and how), we suddenly lose control of our future. Instead of managing our plans, we are now managed by our Plan, required to take action and move forward when we’d rather think about it and play office some more.
.
But the biggest, most important question in business is avoided even more then “when”. And it’s the most important question for determining our success.
Why?"
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Texto de Chuck Blakeman retirado de "Making Money is Killing Your Business"
terça-feira, fevereiro 01, 2011
Lee Chul Soo
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A simplicidade com que se retrata a diversidade.
A doutrina do agora
Às vezes ter memória é doloroso...
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Há cerca de 2 anos Teodora Cardoso, administradora do Banco de Portugal, afirmava que se tinha de obrigar os bancos a conceder crédito.
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Agora, a mesma administradora diz que temos de mudar de vida e participa numa conferência onde se junta a outros economistas para: "Economistas defendem que não adianta reduzir o défice orçamental se não se cortar na dívida externa. E deixam o alerta: os bancos terão de diminuir o crédito"
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Esta facilidade com que se muda de opinião... razão tem Arroja quando escreve sobre a doutrina do agora.
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Há cerca de 2 anos Teodora Cardoso, administradora do Banco de Portugal, afirmava que se tinha de obrigar os bancos a conceder crédito.
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Agora, a mesma administradora diz que temos de mudar de vida e participa numa conferência onde se junta a outros economistas para: "Economistas defendem que não adianta reduzir o défice orçamental se não se cortar na dívida externa. E deixam o alerta: os bancos terão de diminuir o crédito"
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Esta facilidade com que se muda de opinião... razão tem Arroja quando escreve sobre a doutrina do agora.
Acerca do empreendedorismo e da formação académica
Muitas vezes discute-se o fenómeno: quanto mais tempo na escola menos propensão têm as pessoas para o empreendedorismo.
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Talvez este texto "Should You Really Be A Startup Entrepreneur?" contribua para ajudar a explicar o fenómeno:
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"I’m sure everybody has their own definition of the attributes of an entrepreneur. Some of the ones I would identify are:
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Talvez este texto "Should You Really Be A Startup Entrepreneur?" contribua para ajudar a explicar o fenómeno:
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"I’m sure everybody has their own definition of the attributes of an entrepreneur. Some of the ones I would identify are:
- Not very status-oriented
- Doesn’t follow rules very well and questions authority
- Can handle high degrees of ambiguity or uncertainty
- Can handle rejection, being told “no” often and yet still have the confidence in your idea
- Very decisive. A bias toward making decisions – even when only right 70% of the time – moving forward & correcting what doesn’t work
- A high level of confidence in your own ideas and ability to execute
- Not highly susceptible to stress
- Have a high risk tolerance
- Not scared or ashamed of failure
- Can handle long hours, travel, lack of sleep and the trade-offs of having less time for hobbies & other stuff"
No caso português, Arroja vem à tona.
Quanto valerá?
Há semanas o anticomuna fez um comentário que tem ressoado na minha cabeça.
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Aqui em Estarreja, onde moro, frequento com alguma assiduidade uma loja Pingo Doce para fazer as chamadas compras de proximidade.
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No último ano tenho reparado na aceleração do fenómeno da introdução de marcas Pingo Doce (retail label) em detrimento das marcas dos fabricantes.
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Onde é que o Pingo Doce, o Continente e outras cadeias de distribuição contratam o fabrico destes produtos? Será que, como dizia o anticomuna, grande parte desta produção está a ser feita em Portugal, à custa da produção das marcas de fabricante realizadas noutros países?
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Quanto é que isso representará em termos de trocas comerciais?
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Aqui em Estarreja, onde moro, frequento com alguma assiduidade uma loja Pingo Doce para fazer as chamadas compras de proximidade.
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No último ano tenho reparado na aceleração do fenómeno da introdução de marcas Pingo Doce (retail label) em detrimento das marcas dos fabricantes.
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Onde é que o Pingo Doce, o Continente e outras cadeias de distribuição contratam o fabrico destes produtos? Será que, como dizia o anticomuna, grande parte desta produção está a ser feita em Portugal, à custa da produção das marcas de fabricante realizadas noutros países?
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Quanto é que isso representará em termos de trocas comerciais?
Para reflectir sobre o que é uma missão
Ter uma missão a cumprir, sentir uma causa, é muito mais do que uma declaração de missão.
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Uma interessante reflexão sobre o tema neste artigo "Do You Have a Mission Statement, or Are You on a Mission?":
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"A person or organization on a mission is inspiring. A mission statement is an abstraction. Add to this disadvantage the fact that most mission-statement writing is an exercise in compromise and equivocation, and now you've really depressed people."
...
"The point is, don't put mission statements first. Get on a mission, and the other things will follow. Including the mission statement."
...
"Don't waste your advertising space on your mission statement. Use the space to tell people what you've accomplished, or what amazing thing your product will do — use it to show them what mission you're actually on.
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And if you notice that you or your organization spends an inordinate amount of time talking about how to talk about what it does, then maybe it isn't sure what it does — and some serious soul-searching is in order. Maybe "messaging" has become a distraction. Perhaps there's some daring goal out there with your name on it that you're avoiding for fear of failure. But better to fail — mission-statement-less — at some audacious mission, than to have your mission statement all in order while risking nothing."
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Uma interessante reflexão sobre o tema neste artigo "Do You Have a Mission Statement, or Are You on a Mission?":
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"A person or organization on a mission is inspiring. A mission statement is an abstraction. Add to this disadvantage the fact that most mission-statement writing is an exercise in compromise and equivocation, and now you've really depressed people."
...
"The point is, don't put mission statements first. Get on a mission, and the other things will follow. Including the mission statement."
...
"Don't waste your advertising space on your mission statement. Use the space to tell people what you've accomplished, or what amazing thing your product will do — use it to show them what mission you're actually on.
.
And if you notice that you or your organization spends an inordinate amount of time talking about how to talk about what it does, then maybe it isn't sure what it does — and some serious soul-searching is in order. Maybe "messaging" has become a distraction. Perhaps there's some daring goal out there with your name on it that you're avoiding for fear of failure. But better to fail — mission-statement-less — at some audacious mission, than to have your mission statement all in order while risking nothing."
segunda-feira, janeiro 31, 2011
Não há uma economia portuguesa!!!
Há muitas micro-economias dentro deste rectângulo à beira-mar plantado:
- "Comércio a retalho: vendas caem 2,3%"
- "Produção industrial cresce 3,3% em Dezembro" e a hiperligação para o relatório do INE.
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