A caminho de Mongo

• "How 3-D Printing Could Disrupt the Economy of the Future"

"As the sheer variety of these examples suggests, 3-D printing is already having a demonstrable effect on the economy. Traditionally, it has been most useful in creating prototypes. But as GE and others are showing, printers will increasingly be able to produce critical parts and final products. In 2012, 28.3 percent of the $2.2 billion global 3-D printing market was tied to the production of parts for final products rather than prototypes, according to the Wohlers Report 2013. That shift could have profound implications for the economy and for public policy."

"The cost, time and skill necessary for 3-D printing a complicated object is roughly the same as for a simple one made of the same amount of material. As a result, inventors will be freed to dream up products in shapes and material combinations never attempted before, unburdened by the design logic of traditional manufacturing. They’ve already made progress integrating electronics into 3-D printed goods; down the line, they’ll be able to embed sensors, smart technology and artificial intelligence.
Finally, as personal printers get better and cheaper, they’re reducing the expense and risk for individual inventors to become manufacturers. The cost of customization is almost eliminated, because the printers don’t require retooling to make new shapes, and entrepreneurs don’t need to sell big batches of identical items; they can print to order. For a small business, a 3-D printer can eliminate excess production and the need for warehousing, and diminish the costs of distribution. Enthusiasts like to imagine a future in which a 3-D printer in every home will produce all you need, customized and on demand. A more likely scenario is that people will use a print shop to produce designs they’ve purchased from entrepreneurs or created themselves."

• "Your Future Will Be Manufactured on a 3-D Printer" 
• "3-D printers break the mold for manufacturing"

"Affordable printers are lowering the cost of entry into manufacturing in the same way that e-commerce lowered the barriers to the sale of goods and services, according to Gartner Inc., a Stamford, Conn., firm that follows technology trends."

• "With 3-D Printing, the Shoe Really Fits" 
• "How the Internet of Things Changes Everything"

"Currently in the business world we are witnessing something like the epic collision of two galaxies — a rapid convergence of two very unlike systems that will cause the elements of both to realign. It's all thanks to the Internet of Things.
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If you are not familiar with the term, the Internet of Things refers to a dramatic development in the internet's function: the fact that, even more than among people, it now enables communication among physical objects."

 

Curiosidade do dia

Interessante este embate.

"Professors across the U.S. are criticizing a rush to offer free online college courses, challenging a movement designed to spread knowledge and reduce higher-education costs. (Moi ici: Portanto, admitem que não conseguem competir e fazer a diferença face a curso online? O mesmo erro dos jornais e do retalho clássico)
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Amherst College faculty voted last month against joining an initiative led by Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The provost at American University issued a moratorium in January on such massive open online courses, or MOOCs. At San Jose State University, the philosophy department refused to use a free Web course from a Harvard professor.
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As college costs soar, professors are concerned that MOOCs may primarily become a way for universities to reduce expenses. Even at Harvard, some faculty members said at a meeting last week that the movement could damage higher education by leading institutions to cut face-to-face instruction.
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Christensen, a Harvard business school professor, has predicted that in 15 years, half of all universities will be out of business because higher education, with its skyrocketing costs, is ripe for technological upheaval.
At the same time, professors are raising legitimate objections because MOOCs -- focusing on lectures by star professors -- aren’t really a revolutionary form of teaching, Horn said. More interactive approaches may end up being more effective." (Moi ici: E quantos é que estão disponíveis para isso?)

Trecho retirado de "Harvard-for-Free Meets Resistance as Professors See Threat"

BTW "The future is here"

"future-back" approach to strategy"

Começar pelo fim é uma receita que sigo há muito tempo

• "imagine o futuro. Tire a foto do futuro. Não vai para lá... JÁ LÁ ESTÁ! Agora, pinte o quadro." (Março 2007)
• "Começar pelo fim" (Maio 2008)
• "Começar pelo fim" (Junho 2008)
• "Mais uma vez e sempre: Começar pelo fim!!!" (Setembro 2009)
• "Começar pelo fim" (Dezembro 2010)

Gosto de usar a metáfora da corda ninja, para a lançar até ao futuro desejado para "Fazer uma excursão até ao Futuro Imaginado" e, depois, usá-la para voltar ao presente e mudar a realidade actual para a converter na realidade do futuro desejado. É a grande diferença entre empurrar para a frente, para o desconhecido, para um futuro e, puxar a partir do futuro desejado. Podemos estar no presente fisicamente e ser puxados por nós próprios no futuro desejado... recordar Ortega y Gasset.
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Por isso, gostei desta reflexão:

"Organizations should have their moonshots. They're a keystone of what we call a "future-back" approach to strategy, which unlike the "present forward" nature of most strategic-planning processes, doesn't operate under the assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and the day after pretty much more of the same. In stable times, present-forward approaches help optimize resource allocation. But in turbulent times, these approaches can lead companies to miss critical market inflection points.
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At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company's desired future state.This isn't scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities. This is putting a stake in the ground — specifying what you want your core business to look like, what adjacent markets you want to edge into, and the moonshots you'll try for.
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A good moonshot has three ingredients. First, it inspires.
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Second, it is credible.
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Finally, it is imaginative. It isn't an obvious extrapolation of what's happening today ... but something that offers a meaningful break from the past.

Trechos retirados de "What a Good Moonshot Is Really For"

Condenados pelos limites que nós próprios criamos para nós mesmos

Já há algum tempo que não lia um texto de Seth Godin que me agradasse tanto, "Appropriate cheating in the nine-dot problem".
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Um texto que pode ser relacionado com o que aqui vamos escrevendo há anos e anos sobre a "batota" (ver marcador). Um texto que pode ser relacionado com o recente ""Não veja televisão. Não veja as notícias! São um veneno!""

"Then he ends your frustration and points out you've been tricked by your own limits, because, of course, there's nothing in the rules that says you can't
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The thing is, this isn't the end. This is the beginning of the cheating,
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People who have been online for awhile have seen this happen over and over, and yet hesitate to do it with their own problem. Not because it can't be done, but because it's not in the instructions. And the things we fear to initiate are always not in the instructions."

 Agrilhoados, algemados, presos, amedrontados, enterrados, paralisados, condenados pelos limites que nós próprios criamos para nós mesmos, ou aceitamos que uns "gurus" estabeleçam para nós próprios.
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Quando a paisagem competitiva muda muito é preciso voltar a ser "criança" e ignorar as instruções, para fazer o reset ao modelo mental... good old Gonzales:

Treta!

Ontem, no Público em "Só as exportações nos podem salvar mas não o conseguem fazer sozinhas" li:

"O euro valorizado: os bancos centrais das outras grandes potências económicas estão a apostar em politicas fortemente expansionistas, o que faz com que o Banco Central Europeu sinta, mesmo descendo as taxas de juro para próximo de zero, dificuldades em evitar uma apreciação do euro face a divisas como o dólar, a libra ou o iene. Isto torna a tarefa de crescimento das exportações portuguesas - principalmente quando as melhores hipóteses estão fora da zona curo - ainda mais complicada. No passado. - Portugal conseguiu os melhores desempenhos nas exportações nos momentos em que a sua divisa se desvalorizou. Nessa altura, a divisa não era o euro. era o escudo."

E pensei:

"TRETA!!!" 

As exportações portuguesas, com o euro, cresceram 0,3% no primeiro trimestre de 2013 face ao período homólogo de 2012. Comparando as exportações intra e extra-UE temos:

"Em março de 2013 as exportações (para a UE) diminuíram 6,1% face ao mês homólogo de 2012,
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Em março de 2013 as exportações para os Países Terceiros (extra-UE) aumentaram 6,0% face a março de 2012,"

E depois pensei... como terão evoluído as exportações inglesas no mesmo período? Caíram 2,1%!!!
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E depois pensei... como terão evoluído as exportações japonesas no mesmo período? Caíram 1,2%!!!
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Onde está a vantagem da desvalorização cambial?
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É tão arcaico pensar na desvalorização cambial como arma competitiva simples, depois do aparecimento  das "fábricas do mundo" na Ásia...

Curiosidade do dia

Este final de tarde, foi um consolo apanhar esta cena durante o jogging:

Gente com "skin in the game", indiferente a estes comportamentos.

Um exemplo da actuação de David

Um exemplo:

"“We found a void,” Stoffers says. “So we did our research on why bikes are so expensive, and we found it was because of the gears. Adding eight or 30 gears to a bike is costly.”
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The solution: fixed-gear, single-speed bikes, or “fixies,” which have been trendy among city riders for almost a decade. Instead of having a complex multisprocket gear shifter mounted on the back wheel, fixies are rigged like most children’s bikes, with one gear. Sure, single-gear bikes require a little more mustard to propel up hills, but they’re cheaper, more reliable and, if kids and urban hipsters are any indication, more fun than their multigear counterparts." (Moi ici: Existem clientes "overserved" que podem formar um segmento importante?)

"That’s why the Pure Fix boys set out to design the ultimate, budget-friendly fixie. Adding college friend Zach Schau and his computer-whiz brother Jordan to the posse, they mocked up designs for their dream rig, and Stoffers, whose family has import-export experience, worked on finding an overseas manufacturer to make it a reality" (Moi ici: Produto simplificado, mas especial num atributo específico muito valorizado. Depois, não é preciso produzir. Há sempre alguém capaz de produzir. O importante é a concepção e o canal de comunicação com os consumidores - o importante é ser dono da prateleira)

"They hired Andy Abowitz, a former senior executive at Priceline.com, (Moi ici: Importante o recurso a quem tenha capacidade de gestão) as president and began selling their bikes nationwide, using their own distribution system, which kept costs remarkably low. “Usually with bicycles there’s a distribution chain, with large companies purchasing from manufacturers and selling to distributors,” Schau explains. “By acting as our own distributor and supplier, we’re able to have an affordable product right off the bat.”" (Moi ici: Este é o tempo de testar novos modelos de negócio, de testar novos canais de distribuição, de tirar partido dos portugueses espalhados pela Europa como facilitadores para chegar a prateleiras na UE)

"he guys cite their small stature and super-lean operation as prime advantages. “Because we’re smaller, we’re able to innovate faster. We can switch our manufacturing process and come out with something new almost immediately,” Schau says, pointing to recent innovations like frames for kids and a fixed-gear “trick” bike." (Moi ici: Seguir a via de David, apostar no que proporciona rapidez, flexibilidade, vantagem)

Trechos retirados de "How a Group of Friends Made a Dent in the $6 Billion Bike Industry"

Não creio que seja uma resposta linear imediata.

Ontem no JdN em "Exportações, emprego e emigração" sublinhei:

"Na última década a economia portuguesa sofreu uma série de choques externos que acentuaram os seus desequilíbrios. O alargamento e a maior abertura da UE à China colocaram em cheque a nossa especialização tradicional, comprometendo o crescimento económico. A maior crise desde 1929 deu uma facada adicional. O fraco crescimento que daqui resultou, em paralelo com o acesso a crédito barato, estiveram na origem do desequilíbrio externo e do desequilíbrio orçamental.
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Os dados de Março também revelaram que as exportações, que deviam estar a aumentar, estão a cair. (Moi ici: O que está a cair são as exportações de viaturas, não por falta de competitividade do sector em Portugal mas por falta de procura no mercado europeu)
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O principal problema que o país enfrenta neste momento não é a instabilidade dentro do Governo, nem a lentidão a que se está a processar a consolidação, é o facto de as medidas socialmente muito duras que estão a ser impostas não estarem a gerar o ajustamento da economia no sentido necessário. Portugal precisa de investir mais, produzir mais e exportar mais. E nada disto está a acontecer."

O último parágrafo fez-me voltar aos tempos de escola e ao meu Stephanopolous sobre Dinâmica de Sistemas.
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E quem é que disse que a economia sustentável que tem de ser criada e desenvolvida tem um comportamento linear?
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Se o governo torrasse mais uns milhões a "assar sardinhas com fósforos", apoiando a economia insustentável, a resposta seria muito mais rápida porque seria mais próximo da linearidade. Seria apoiar o uso insustentável de recursos já existentes. Recursos que estavam imobilizados e prontos para utilização.
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A economia sustentável que tem de ser criada e desenvolvida não aparece do pé para a mão, para além de depender muito da procura externa, os recursos não existem prontos para serem utilizados.

"Stressors are information"

Primeiro a "dor" vai ter de gerar informação.
Depois, a informação vai gerar acção.
Só a acção vai gerar hipóteses de mobilização de recursos.
Dessas hipóteses, algumas vão descobrir um retorno positivo e vão desenvolver-se, outras vão ter um retorno negativo inicial. Em resposta a esse retorno negativo inicial, algumas vão "pivotar" em busca de melhor ajuste com o mercado e outras vão morrer.
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Não creio que seja uma resposta linear imediata.

“Ready or not, here I come!”

À atenção das associações empresariais.

“Market transitions wait for no one.” Not for your customers. Not for your partners. Not for your competitors. And not for you. When the time comes, that sets the time. And just like when you were a kid playing hide and seek, there’s a voice that comes out of nowhere calling, “Ready or not, here I come!”

À atenção dos empresários.

"But step back and take stock. The world is more powerful than you. The market is more powerful than you. Your customers are more powerful than you. And the sum of all your partners and competitors—the ecosystem—is more powerful than you. And just to put the cap on it, nobody really cares about you except you."

À atenção de quem olha para as empresas como vacas leiteiras sempre à mão para impostar.
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Trecho retirado de "Escape Velocity - Free Your Company’s Future from the Pull of the Past" de Geoffrey A. Moore.

Promoção da concorrência imperfeita

Ideias que ajudam a crescer.

Curiosidade do dia

"We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with their savings rather with their own business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the stock market for entertainment.
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People should have three sources of variation in their income. The first one is their own business that they understand rather well. Focus on that. The second one is their savings. Make sure you preserve them. The third portion is the speculative portion: Whatever you are willing to lose, you can invest in whatever you want."

Trecho retirado de "Taleb: Government Deficits Could Be the Next 'Black Swan'"

Periferias

"Portugal será sempre um país periférico na produção de carros"

E será que um dia a produção de carros será ela própria periférica?

Teremos já passado o "peak car consumption" na Europa?

"You have to play what’s in front of you"

Uma excelente metáfora "Management vs Tonga"
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Primeiro, recordar que este blogue é mantido por um fan do balanced scorecard. Alguém que acredita no poder que a monitorização de indicadores alinhados com uma estratégia, pode dar a uma empresa.

"Now, in certain contexts, exclusively quantitative measurements are powerful decision aids, but we fall into trouble when we extend the context inappropriately, yet still maintain our absolute belief in the power of quantitative measurement.
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Fast forward to a tour of the Antipodes commencing with an opening game in Tonga. The 80 minute game was terminated after half an hour as we ran out of substitute players. We were just as fast, just as motivated as they were but we were also lighter by an average of 15 kg per player. The picture at the top says it all.
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We did not adjust. We had statistics on our side; we just had to try harder - and ultimately we failed. We had stuck to our plan because we were confident that measurements were tied to the cause and effect of success, and we refused to play what was in front us.
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Now, I often no longer provide the intellectual argument. Intellectual stimulation provokes thought, emotional stimulation provokes action.
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Sometimes you need to let the management team play the Tongans.
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In my experience running this exercise, it reveals to senior management the real power of narrative research, (Moi ici: Daí a importância do mapa da estratégia) and then prompts further discussion on the potential danger of making a measure a goal, and how measurement and flexibility should always be in harness. You have to play what’s in front of you."

"below everything else"

"10 Things Every Customer Wants"

"Why does a customer buy from one vendor rather than another? According to research recently conducted by The Rain Group (detailed report here), customers tend to buy from sellers who are superlative at the following tasks:"

Em décimo e último lugar temos:

"10. Provide Value That's Superior to Other Options
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And here, finally, at the No. 10 spot (below everything else) comes the price and how that price compares to similar offerings. Unless you can prove that buying from you is the right business decision for the customer, the customer can and should buy elsewhere."

Os "bean counters" da tríade não percebem isto.
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E você?
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E a sua empresa?

"Não veja televisão. Não veja as notícias! São um veneno!"

"The economy isn’t as important as you think it is. (Moi ici: A ideia da retoma, ou da recessão - "Não acredito em marés..."; "A retoma da economia" e "À espera da retoma")
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1. In any economy, some businesses will thrive while others suffer.
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Just because your traditional market is struggling doesn’t mean there aren’t other markets for you to serve. Whether you’re selling business to business or business to retail, there are buyers who are flourishing. Identify those buyers, market to them, and you, too, will flourish.
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2. People will pay extra for what they really want regardless of the economy.
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some buyers will forego eating out to be able to afford their dream trip. Others will postpone the trip to be able to eat out. Buyers will make adjustments in their spending habits, but they will spend, and handsomely, for the things they really value.
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3. Buyers’ natural styles don’t change just because the economy does.
Value buyers will always be value buyers, just as price buyers will always be price buyers. Price buyers will be looking for the best deal they can get even when they’re rolling in money. Value buyers, on the other hand, will forego some purchases during difficult times rather than sacrifice the things they value."

Na semana passada comecei um projecto numa empresa. Um dos empresários começou a falar da crise e do Gaspar, está tudo minado, não há saída... quando acabamos a sessão, baseada na análise de uma tabela SWOT, tinham-se identificadoe 2 ou 3 oportunidades que se podiam conjugar com pontos fortes. Tempo de arregaçar as mangas!
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O meu conselho foi logo:

"Não veja televisão. Não veja as notícias! São um veneno!"

Trechos retirados de "Pricing for Profit - How to Command Higher Prices for Your Products and Services" de Dale Furtwengler

Curiosidade do dia

Muito, muito interessante!
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"Caveat emptor.com"~

"Yet customers may feel it unfair for retailers to charge customers differently for the same product, based on hunches about how much they can be stung for.
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Maybe the rise of price-customisation software will spawn rival apps that help consumers defeat it, by disguising their trail of clicks. In the meantime, online shoppers might look at ways to avoid appearing like moneybags. Surf on a PC, not an Apple. Start by visiting a price-comparison site, then—on arrival on a seller's site—feign interest in its cheapest stuff. Having made your choice, dawdle on your way to the checkout page. The internet may make price discrimination easier for retailers; but in online stores, as in bricks-and-mortar shops, two can play at that game."

Quantos parêntesis conseguem identificar?

Ontem, no final de "A estabilidade é mesmo uma ilusão (parte III)" escrevi:

"Se vamos a caminho de Mongo (o Estranhistão), se "we are all weird", se o futuro passa pela co-criação e pela co-produção, se o futuro passa pela customização e personalização, então, o futuro são os artesãos. O futuro é voltar ao passado, é desmassificar a produção, é olhar para a segunda metade do século XX e perceber o "post-war construct" como uma anormalidade histórica a que nos habituamos e que temos medo de abandonar porque é a conhecida."

Ao princípio da noite encontrei este texto "Back to the future: What if the ‘mass media’ era was just an accident of history?" onde se pode ler uma mensagem muito semelhante:

"The idea that mass media was a kind of historical accident has been raised by others as well, including Tom Standage of The Economist — both in his upcoming book, called “Writing on the Wall,” and in a series of pieces in the magazine about the nature of digital media.
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“The ominous implications of the rebirth of social media for mass-media companies that arose in the industrial era, (Moi ici: Como escrevo aqui tantas vezes, Mongo é pós sociedade industrial) predicated on the high cost of delivering information to large audiences. The conclusion of the book is that the mass-media era was a historical anomaly… indeed, it might better be termed the ‘mass-media parenthesis.’”
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If this is in fact what we are experiencing — that is, the unbundling or dismantling of a mass-media infrastructure that was constructed to serve the needs of readers (and advertisers) at a specific time in history — then what can we expect? Among other things, probably further downsizing and layoffs and bankruptcies of media companies whose size and cost structure and print focus no longer corresponds to the needs of the marketplace.
And on the positive side, we are also likely to see the growth of new entities that take advantage of the networked, social and smaller-scale nature of the media ecosystem — startups like Circa, for example, or algorithmic players like Prismatic, along with larger entities like The Huffington Post and BuzzFeed. In a very real sense, it is both the best of times and the worst of times."

E seguindo este raciocínio, poderemos também falar de um "employment parenthesis"?

Apostar em nichos

"O ritmo da queda não deixa margem para dúvidas: em meados da década passada, havia 1800 videoclubes. Em 2010, eram 300. Até ao final de 2013, metade dos 100 que ainda resistem acabará provavelmente por fechar, antecipa Nuno Pereira.
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A curto prazo, o sector vai ficar reduzido a escassos sobreviventes, entre os quais aqueles que conseguirem dar a volta ao modelo de negócio tradicional, considera o responsável da Acapor. “Lojas de aluguer de vídeo, daqui a dois anos, não acredito que existam.
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A Cineteka começou no quarto de Gonçalo Peres, com um sistema que ainda hoje se mantém: as pessoas podem encomendar filmes pela Internet e estes são enviados por correio. Em 2006, a loja física abriu. É um espaço amplo, com dois andares. Em baixo, o videoclube, que também vende posters de filmes, acesso à Internet e ainda pastilhas elásticas e chocolates (uma receita “residual”, diz Bruno Mendes, outro dos sócios – estes produtos servem apenas para completar o serviço). No piso de cima há um café, cuja exploração está entregue a outra empresa.
“O negócio principal é o aluguer de filmes”, assegura Gonçalo Peres, que explica que a Cineteka se esforça por ter filmes de cinema alternativo e títulos antigos, que apelam a muitos dos clientes que têm. (Moi ici: Este é o pormenor que me captou a atenção. Num sector em queda, por perda da massa de clientes, há quem, em contracorrente tenha sucesso. Como? Apostando em nichos, servindo clientes-alvo... uma lição para os jornais, por exemplo) Para além do modelo tradicional de aluguer, a empresa oferece a possibilidade de assinaturas mensais."

Trechos retirados de "O filme dos videoclubes não tem um final feliz"

Tríade: bean counters

"There is a long history of companies that became obsessively focused on cost, at the expense of providing a product or service of value to the customer. The fact of the matter is you can make a pizza so cheap no one is willing to eat it.
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Cost accountants focus on the inside of an organization, yet all value takes place in the external world, beyond the four walls of the organization. By and large, accountants are not well equipped to judge and measure value, despite all the recent blather about activity-based costing.
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It is time we lay to rest cost-plus pricing, and for businesses to embrace The First Law of Marketing: All value is subjective. Pricing is far too important to be left to the worldview of the bean counters."

Trecho retirado de "The First Law of Marketing: All Value is Subjective"

Curiosidade do dia

" new study really helps to drive home how little patents have to do with innovation. Pointed out to us by James Bessen, the study looks at "R&D 100 Awards" from the academic journal, Research & Development from 1977 to 2004. As you might expect, the R&D 100 Awards are given out each year by the journal in an attempt to name the top 100 innovations of the year. If patents were instrumental in driving innovation, you'd certainly expect most of these innovations to be patented. .But you'd be wrong, as the reports authors, Roberto Fontana, Alessandro Nuvolari, Hiroshi Shimizu and Andrea Vezzulli, quickly discovered.
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A stunning 91% of all of the technologies receiving the prize were not actually patented. That's covering approximately 3,000 technologies winning this award as the most innovative advancement of the year over a period of about three decades."

Trecho retirado de "Over 90% Of The Most Innovative Products From The Past Few Decades Were NOT Patented"